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000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters









000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 281654
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 MB frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281654
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 MB frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 281131
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with north winds
in the 10-15 kt range for much of the daylight hours. There is a
very small chance for -SHRA at MHK after 09Z, and a very small
chance for shallow fog at TOP after 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272013
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 271126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernable system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFSEnsemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 mb
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period, but with some
small potential for reduced visibility between 10Z and 12Z Monday.
North winds may gust up to 25 kts this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 271126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernable system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFSEnsemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 mb
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period, but with some
small potential for reduced visibility between 10Z and 12Z Monday.
North winds may gust up to 25 kts this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270858
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernable system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFSEnsemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 mb
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. North winds will
increase to 11 to 14 KTS with higher gusts through the mid morning
hours and continue through the afternoon. Winds will become light
after sunset.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270858
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernable system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFSEnsemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 mb
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. North winds will
increase to 11 to 14 KTS with higher gusts through the mid morning
hours and continue through the afternoon. Winds will become light
after sunset.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. North winds will
increase to 11 to 14 KTS with higher gusts through the mid morning
hours and continue through the afternoon. Winds will become light
after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. North winds will
increase to 11 to 14 KTS with higher gusts through the mid morning
hours and continue through the afternoon. Winds will become light
after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262353
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A weak cold front
will switch winds to the north through the mid evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262353
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A weak cold front
will switch winds to the north through the mid evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 262029 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262029 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with small POPS for Thursday and Friday, but
then have a dry forecast for Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 262021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with a slight chance for Thursday, but then have
a dry forecast for Friday and Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 262021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
321 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Upper ridge continues to be displaced to the south of the hot
airmass, causing forecast difficulties. Upper wave/MCV rotating
around the ridge brought scattered light precip to much of the area
into the early afternoon, with isolated high-based showers
continuing for a few locations near I-35, close to what was
anticipated in yesterday`s forecast. To the north, vigorous
convection has slowly weakened as it comes into the warmer temps
aloft, but is getting into a more unstable airmass.

Hard to get too excited about precipitation chances tonight. Believe
the convection to the north may increase a bit in the next couple
hours, but will be reaching the CWA as thermodynamics weaken. With
decreasing shear as well, will only carry small chances, but the
concern remains for at least an isolated severe wind threat in the
early evening. With the cold front making its way through and mid
level moisture obviously high, will maintain a small PoP area-wide
into the overnight hours.  Overall this continues to be low
confidence precipitation forecast. As for the Heat Advisory, will
continue it at this point. Locations in the northeast in particular
may remain too cool to approach 105F apparent temps, specially if
the mid/high cloud continues to develop, but with several more hours
until sunset and dewpoints remaining along and north of the weak
surface trough over northern Kansas, the potential for a quick jump
in heat indices seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry as a modified Canadian
surface ridge of high pressure builds south through the plains.
Models show northwest flow aloft with no obvious shortwave moving
over the area. Therefore will continue with a dry forecast since
there is no strong signal of forcing. Models show good mixing and
with some insolation, afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s.
Trended lows a degree or two cooler thinking skies would remain
mostly clear allowing for decent radiational cooling.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, models continue to show
shortwave energy rounding the upper ridge over the mountains and
moving across the central high plains. This should bring a chance
for precip with POPs increasing as one moves west. The GFS BUFKIT
soundings are showing a little better instability developing mid
week so have simply gone with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With expected cloud cover the diurnal change in
temps is expected to be a couple degree less and have Lows a
degree or two warmer with highs a degree or two cooler.

For Thursday through Saturday, confidence in the meso scale
details decreases. The overall pattern has the longwave trough
remaining over the eastern half with the potential for a weak
disturbance to move overhead. Additionally models have little or
no inhibition due to cool mid level temps. So confidence is precip
chances is low because there is nothing to prevent storms from
developing but no clear signal that would force storms to form
either. Continued with a slight chance for Thursday, but then have
a dry forecast for Friday and Saturday. Temps should remain below
normal as long as the longwave trough remains over the plains
keeping the hot air over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 261723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 3 AM, there were several features of interest located across the
region. First, a frontal zone extending from near Concordia into far
southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures were only slightly cooler north
of the front with some low level convergence along the boundary. The
low-level moisture was a bit deeper north of the front, and also
with eastward extent in the CWA while there was a relatively dry
zone with Td`s in the low/mid 60s in parts of the Flint Hills. There
was also a zone of weak isentropic ascent within a sharply veered
low level jet stream across the southeastern half of Kansas. A belt
of 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 8000 feet was in place
across east central KS, and the LLJ lift coincided with the MU
lifted parcel level in this area...resulting in scattered shower
development with a few t-storms possible through sunrise from
Emporia over toward Ottawa.

Another feature which will have a substantial impact on today`s
forecast was a short wave trough with an embedded MCV moving into
central KS at 3 AM. The wave was moving into a more stable airmass
and convection has been dissipating early this morning. At the same
time, the lift with the compact system remains strong enough to
produce precipitation albeit with little to no lightning. Expect an
area (likely shrinking with time) of light to moderate rain and
embedded thunder to move across the forecast area this morning, and
have timed the POPs with recent movement of the MCV. This precip
could very well come to an end before it reaches eastern KS, or
another lower-likelihood scenario would be a slight increase in
coverage and intensity from mid morning into the afternoon as
instability increases a bit ahead of the system. For now will run
with slight chances of accumulating precip, and widespread mid/high
clouds. The clouds will obviously impact the temperature and
dewpoint forecasts, and could provide relief from the intense heat.
However, expect these clouds to be exiting the area and decreasing
west to east by early afternoon, which should leave plenty of time
for afternoon heating. Dewpoints may remain a bit higher, but the
strongly veered flow pattern should eventually mix more of a
westerly component to the surface along with lower dewpoints. The
current heat index forecast remains in the 103 to 108 range across
the entire area but with a small potential to hold lower.

Late today into tonight, the region will begin to feel the effects
of a strong short wave trough moving into the Great Lakes region.
Will see gradual height falls after 00Z along with a gradual
increase in cold advection. The surface front will drift south and
additional mid-level moisture will move into the area. There is a
slight chance for storms in the vicinity of the front late afternoon
into early evening, but the mixed layer parcels are likely to have
fair amount of inhibition and the forcing is just not very strong so
convection is questionable and isolated if it develops. If storms
develop, localized damaging downburst winds would be possible. Will
also keep an eye on northern Nebraska where there is some chance for
an MCS to develop this afternoon and propagate southeast into
northeast KS. This is a low confidence scenario, but possible.
Otherwise, look for a slightly better (but still slight) chance of
storms during the overnight hours as the glancing short wave may
provide lift for moderately unstable elevated parcels. There would
be a small chance of strong winds with overnight activity, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A mostly quiet period expected in the extended forecast for
northeast Kansas. Dry northwest flow aloft spreads southward behind
the front, quickly clearing out precipitation on Sunday. Dewpoints
are expected to mix down into the low 60s while cool air advecting
southward behind the departing trough will hold highs 10 degrees
cooler than Saturday in the low 90s. Northerly winds aloft remain
rather strong, prompting sfc gusts around 25 mph in the afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are here to stay for next week as
light winds and cool high pressure settles over the central and high
plains. Best chances for more scattered rainfall is on Tuesday
evening and especially Wednesday as a shortwave trough dropping south
over western KS develops a cluster of storms expected to push south
and east through the state. At this time, elevated instability is
very weak with MLCAPE values at 200 J/KG at best so believe much of
the activity would be in the form of showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Meanwhile a potent upper trough is
progged to deepen southward through mid week over the upper Great
Lakes region. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF still having a
difficult time discerning the depth of this wave and subsequent
minor weak waves, in addition to the lack of decent moisture across
our cwa. For now, sided with the consensus blend that keeps slight
chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Believe most areas should stay dry with temperatures being
noticeably cooler in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 3 AM, there were several features of interest located across the
region. First, a frontal zone extending from near Concordia into far
southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures were only slightly cooler north
of the front with some low level convergence along the boundary. The
low-level moisture was a bit deeper north of the front, and also
with eastward extent in the CWA while there was a relatively dry
zone with Td`s in the low/mid 60s in parts of the Flint Hills. There
was also a zone of weak isentropic ascent within a sharply veered
low level jet stream across the southeastern half of Kansas. A belt
of 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 8000 feet was in place
across east central KS, and the LLJ lift coincided with the MU
lifted parcel level in this area...resulting in scattered shower
development with a few t-storms possible through sunrise from
Emporia over toward Ottawa.

Another feature which will have a substantial impact on today`s
forecast was a short wave trough with an embedded MCV moving into
central KS at 3 AM. The wave was moving into a more stable airmass
and convection has been dissipating early this morning. At the same
time, the lift with the compact system remains strong enough to
produce precipitation albeit with little to no lightning. Expect an
area (likely shrinking with time) of light to moderate rain and
embedded thunder to move across the forecast area this morning, and
have timed the POPs with recent movement of the MCV. This precip
could very well come to an end before it reaches eastern KS, or
another lower-likelihood scenario would be a slight increase in
coverage and intensity from mid morning into the afternoon as
instability increases a bit ahead of the system. For now will run
with slight chances of accumulating precip, and widespread mid/high
clouds. The clouds will obviously impact the temperature and
dewpoint forecasts, and could provide relief from the intense heat.
However, expect these clouds to be exiting the area and decreasing
west to east by early afternoon, which should leave plenty of time
for afternoon heating. Dewpoints may remain a bit higher, but the
strongly veered flow pattern should eventually mix more of a
westerly component to the surface along with lower dewpoints. The
current heat index forecast remains in the 103 to 108 range across
the entire area but with a small potential to hold lower.

Late today into tonight, the region will begin to feel the effects
of a strong short wave trough moving into the Great Lakes region.
Will see gradual height falls after 00Z along with a gradual
increase in cold advection. The surface front will drift south and
additional mid-level moisture will move into the area. There is a
slight chance for storms in the vicinity of the front late afternoon
into early evening, but the mixed layer parcels are likely to have
fair amount of inhibition and the forcing is just not very strong so
convection is questionable and isolated if it develops. If storms
develop, localized damaging downburst winds would be possible. Will
also keep an eye on northern Nebraska where there is some chance for
an MCS to develop this afternoon and propagate southeast into
northeast KS. This is a low confidence scenario, but possible.
Otherwise, look for a slightly better (but still slight) chance of
storms during the overnight hours as the glancing short wave may
provide lift for moderately unstable elevated parcels. There would
be a small chance of strong winds with overnight activity, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A mostly quiet period expected in the extended forecast for
northeast Kansas. Dry northwest flow aloft spreads southward behind
the front, quickly clearing out precipitation on Sunday. Dewpoints
are expected to mix down into the low 60s while cool air advecting
southward behind the departing trough will hold highs 10 degrees
cooler than Saturday in the low 90s. Northerly winds aloft remain
rather strong, prompting sfc gusts around 25 mph in the afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are here to stay for next week as
light winds and cool high pressure settles over the central and high
plains. Best chances for more scattered rainfall is on Tuesday
evening and especially Wednesday as a shortwave trough dropping south
over western KS develops a cluster of storms expected to push south
and east through the state. At this time, elevated instability is
very weak with MLCAPE values at 200 J/KG at best so believe much of
the activity would be in the form of showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Meanwhile a potent upper trough is
progged to deepen southward through mid week over the upper Great
Lakes region. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF still having a
difficult time discerning the depth of this wave and subsequent
minor weak waves, in addition to the lack of decent moisture across
our cwa. For now, sided with the consensus blend that keeps slight
chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Believe most areas should stay dry with temperatures being
noticeably cooler in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions continue to be expected. High-based precipitation
should be ending shortly at KTOP and KFOE with passage of an upper
level wave. Strong convection currently in NE Nebraska will need
to be monitored as it could reach the terminals around 0Z, but at
this point confidence remains too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261146
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 3 AM, there were several features of interest located across the
region. First, a frontal zone extending from near Concordia into far
southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures were only slightly cooler north
of the front with some low level convergence along the boundary. The
low-level moisture was a bit deeper north of the front, and also
with eastward extent in the CWA while there was a relatively dry
zone with Td`s in the low/mid 60s in parts of the Flint Hills. There
was also a zone of weak isentropic ascent within a sharply veered
low level jet stream across the southeastern half of Kansas. A belt
of 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 8000 feet was in place
across east central KS, and the LLJ lift coincided with the MU
lifted parcel level in this area...resulting in scattered shower
development with a few t-storms possible through sunrise from
Emporia over toward Ottawa.

Another feature which will have a substantial impact on today`s
forecast was a short wave trough with an embedded MCV moving into
central KS at 3 AM. The wave was moving into a more stable airmass
and convection has been dissipating early this morning. At the same
time, the lift with the compact system remains strong enough to
produce precipitation albeit with little to no lightning. Expect an
area (likely shrinking with time) of light to moderate rain and
embedded thunder to move across the forecast area this morning, and
have timed the POPs with recent movement of the MCV. This precip
could very well come to an end before it reaches eastern KS, or
another lower-likelihood scenario would be a slight increase in
coverage and intensity from mid morning into the afternoon as
instability increases a bit ahead of the system. For now will run
with slight chances of accumulating precip, and widespread mid/high
clouds. The clouds will obviously impact the temperature and
dewpoint forecasts, and could provide relief from the intense heat.
However, expect these clouds to be exiting the area and decreasing
west to east by early afternoon, which should leave plenty of time
for afternoon heating. Dewpoints may remain a bit higher, but the
strongly veered flow pattern should eventually mix more of a
westerly component to the surface along with lower dewpoints. The
current heat index forecast remains in the 103 to 108 range across
the entire area but with a small potential to hold lower.

Late today into tonight, the region will begin to feel the effects
of a strong short wave trough moving into the Great Lakes region.
Will see gradual height falls after 00Z along with a gradual
increase in cold advection. The surface front will drift south and
additional mid-level moisture will move into the area. There is a
slight chance for storms in the vicinity of the front late afternoon
into early evening, but the mixed layer parcels are likely to have
fair amount of inhibition and the forcing is just not very strong so
convection is questionable and isolated if it develops. If storms
develop, localized damaging downburst winds would be possible. Will
also keep an eye on northern Nebraska where there is some chance for
an MCS to develop this afternoon and propagate southeast into
northeast KS. This is a low confidence scenario, but possible.
Otherwise, look for a slightly better (but still slight) chance of
storms during the overnight hours as the glancing short wave may
provide lift for moderately unstable elevated parcels. There would
be a small chance of strong winds with overnight activity, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A mostly quiet period expected in the extended forecast for
northeast Kansas. Dry northwest flow aloft spreads southward behind
the front, quickly clearing out precipitation on Sunday. Dewpoints
are expected to mix down into the low 60s while cool air advecting
southward behind the departing trough will hold highs 10 degrees
cooler than Saturday in the low 90s. Northerly winds aloft remain
rather strong, prompting sfc gusts around 25 mph in the afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are here to stay for next week as
light winds and cool high pressure settles over the central and high
plains. Best chances for more scattered rainfall is on Tuesday
evening and especially Wednesday as a shortwave trough dropping south
over western KS develops a cluster of storms expected to push south
and east through the state. At this time, elevated instability is
very weak with MLCAPE values at 200 J/KG at best so believe much of
the activity would be in the form of showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Meanwhile a potent upper trough is
progged to deepen southward through mid week over the upper Great
Lakes region. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF still having a
difficult time discerning the depth of this wave and subsequent
minor weak waves, in addition to the lack of decent moisture across
our cwa. For now, sided with the consensus blend that keeps slight
chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Believe most areas should stay dry with temperatures being
noticeably cooler in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. A weak but
persistent weather disturbance may bring a period of SHRA or
perhaps isolated TS to TAF sites this morning, but precip should
be light and ceilings above 5000 ft. There is a slight chance for
TS development late this afternoon through tonight, but confidence
in timing and coverage is low so have not included TS in the TAF
at this time. If storms develop near TAF sites this afternoon or
evening, strong downburst wind gusts will be possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 3 AM, there were several features of interest located across the
region. First, a frontal zone extending from near Concordia into far
southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures were only slightly cooler north
of the front with some low level convergence along the boundary. The
low-level moisture was a bit deeper north of the front, and also
with eastward extent in the CWA while there was a relatively dry
zone with Td`s in the low/mid 60s in parts of the Flint Hills. There
was also a zone of weak isentropic ascent within a sharply veered
low level jet stream across the southeastern half of Kansas. A belt
of 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 8000 feet was in place
across east central KS, and the LLJ lift coincided with the MU
lifted parcel level in this area...resulting in scattered shower
development with a few t-storms possible through sunrise from
Emporia over toward Ottawa.

Another feature which will have a substantial impact on today`s
forecast was a short wave trough with an embedded MCV moving into
central KS at 3 AM. The wave was moving into a more stable airmass
and convection has been dissipating early this morning. At the same
time, the lift with the compact system remains strong enough to
produce precipitation albeit with little to no lightning. Expect an
area (likely shrinking with time) of light to moderate rain and
embedded thunder to move across the forecast area this morning, and
have timed the POPs with recent movement of the MCV. This precip
could very well come to an end before it reaches eastern KS, or
another lower-likelihood scenario would be a slight increase in
coverage and intensity from mid morning into the afternoon as
instability increases a bit ahead of the system. For now will run
with slight chances of accumulating precip, and widespread mid/high
clouds. The clouds will obviously impact the temperature and
dewpoint forecasts, and could provide relief from the intense heat.
However, expect these clouds to be exiting the area and decreasing
west to east by early afternoon, which should leave plenty of time
for afternoon heating. Dewpoints may remain a bit higher, but the
strongly veered flow pattern should eventually mix more of a
westerly component to the surface along with lower dewpoints. The
current heat index forecast remains in the 103 to 108 range across
the entire area but with a small potential to hold lower.

Late today into tonight, the region will begin to feel the effects
of a strong short wave trough moving into the Great Lakes region.
Will see gradual height falls after 00Z along with a gradual
increase in cold advection. The surface front will drift south and
additional mid-level moisture will move into the area. There is a
slight chance for storms in the vicinity of the front late afternoon
into early evening, but the mixed layer parcels are likely to have
fair amount of inhibition and the forcing is just not very strong so
convection is questionable and isolated if it develops. If storms
develop, localized damaging downburst winds would be possible. Will
also keep an eye on northern Nebraska where there is some chance for
an MCS to develop this afternoon and propagate southeast into
northeast KS. This is a low confidence scenario, but possible.
Otherwise, look for a slightly better (but still slight) chance of
storms during the overnight hours as the glancing short wave may
provide lift for moderately unstable elevated parcels. There would
be a small chance of strong winds with overnight activity, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A mostly quiet period expected in the extended forecast for
northeast Kansas. Dry northwest flow aloft spreads southward behind
the front, quickly clearing out precipitation on Sunday. Dewpoints
are expected to mix down into the low 60s while cool air advecting
southward behind the departing trough will hold highs 10 degrees
cooler than Saturday in the low 90s. Northerly winds aloft remain
rather strong, prompting sfc gusts around 25 mph in the afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are here to stay for next week as
light winds and cool high pressure settles over the central and high
plains. Best chances for more scattered rainfall is on Tuesday
evening and especially Wednesday as a shortwave trough dropping south
over western KS develops a cluster of storms expected to push south
and east through the state. At this time, elevated instability is
very weak with MLCAPE values at 200 J/KG at best so believe much of
the activity would be in the form of showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Meanwhile a potent upper trough is
progged to deepen southward through mid week over the upper Great
Lakes region. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF still having a
difficult time discerning the depth of this wave and subsequent
minor weak waves, in addition to the lack of decent moisture across
our cwa. For now, sided with the consensus blend that keeps slight
chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Believe most areas should stay dry with temperatures being
noticeably cooler in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. There is a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms after sunset. Coverage
and probability is still uncertain therefore did not add any extra
groups. Any storm that reaches the taf site has the potential of
briefly producing strong wind gusts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 260906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

At 3 AM, there were several features of interest located across the
region. First, a frontal zone extending from near Concordia into far
southeastern Nebraska. Temperatures were only slightly cooler north
of the front with some low level convergence along the boundary. The
low-level moisture was a bit deeper north of the front, and also
with eastward extent in the CWA while there was a relatively dry
zone with Td`s in the low/mid 60s in parts of the Flint Hills. There
was also a zone of weak isentropic ascent within a sharply veered
low level jet stream across the southeastern half of Kansas. A belt
of 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE rooted around 8000 feet was in place
across east central KS, and the LLJ lift coincided with the MU
lifted parcel level in this area...resulting in scattered shower
development with a few t-storms possible through sunrise from
Emporia over toward Ottawa.

Another feature which will have a substantial impact on today`s
forecast was a short wave trough with an embedded MCV moving into
central KS at 3 AM. The wave was moving into a more stable airmass
and convection has been dissipating early this morning. At the same
time, the lift with the compact system remains strong enough to
produce precipitation albeit with little to no lightning. Expect an
area (likely shrinking with time) of light to moderate rain and
embedded thunder to move across the forecast area this morning, and
have timed the POPs with recent movement of the MCV. This precip
could very well come to an end before it reaches eastern KS, or
another lower-likelihood scenario would be a slight increase in
coverage and intensity from mid morning into the afternoon as
instability increases a bit ahead of the system. For now will run
with slight chances of accumulating precip, and widespread mid/high
clouds. The clouds will obviously impact the temperature and
dewpoint forecasts, and could provide relief from the intense heat.
However, expect these clouds to be exiting the area and decreasing
west to east by early afternoon, which should leave plenty of time
for afternoon heating. Dewpoints may remain a bit higher, but the
strongly veered flow pattern should eventually mix more of a
westerly component to the surface along with lower dewpoints. The
current heat index forecast remains in the 103 to 108 range across
the entire area but with a small potential to hold lower.

Late today into tonight, the region will begin to feel the effects
of a strong short wave trough moving into the Great Lakes region.
Will see gradual height falls after 00Z along with a gradual
increase in cold advection. The surface front will drift south and
additional mid-level moisture will move into the area. There is a
slight chance for storms in the vicinity of the front late afternoon
into early evening, but the mixed layer parcels are likely to have
fair amount of inhibition and the forcing is just not very strong so
convection is questionable and isolated if it develops. If storms
develop, localized damaging downburst winds would be possible. Will
also keep an eye on northern Nebraska where there is some chance for
an MCS to develop this afternoon and propagate southeast into
northeast KS. This is a low confidence scenario, but possible.
Otherwise, look for a slightly better (but still slight) chance of
storms during the overnight hours as the glancing short wave may
provide lift for moderately unstable elevated parcels. There would
be a small chance of strong winds with overnight activity, but
severe weather is unlikely.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A mostly quiet period expected in the extended forecast for
northeast Kansas. Dry northwest flow aloft spreads southward behind
the front, quickly clearing out precipitation on Sunday. Dewpoints
are expected to mix down into the low 60s while cool air advecting
southward behind the departing trough will hold highs 10 degrees
cooler than Saturday in the low 90s. Northerly winds aloft remain
rather strong, prompting sfc gusts around 25 mph in the afternoon.

The below normal temperatures are here to stay for next week as
light winds and cool high pressure settles over the central and high
plains. Best chances for more scattered rainfall is on Tuesday
evening and especially Wednesday as a shortwave trough dropping south
over western KS develops a cluster of storms expected to push south
and east through the state. At this time, elevated instability is
very weak with MLCAPE values at 200 J/KG at best so believe much of
the activity would be in the form of showers with perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm or two. Meanwhile a potent upper trough is
progged to deepen southward through mid week over the upper Great
Lakes region. Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF still having a
difficult time discerning the depth of this wave and subsequent
minor weak waves, in addition to the lack of decent moisture across
our cwa. For now, sided with the consensus blend that keeps slight
chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
Believe most areas should stay dry with temperatures being
noticeably cooler in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. There is a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms after sunset. Coverage
and probability is still uncertain therefore did not add any extra
groups. Any storm that reaches the taf site has the potential of
briefly producing strong wind gusts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Upper high was over New Mexico today with mid and high level
moisture rotating around it into the Central Plains. This moisture
feed met up with a strong mid level thermal gradient from across
Iowa to bring persistent thunderstorms to eastern Missouri today.
Weak pressure rises were occurring behind a trough of low pressure
from eastern Nebraska to western Kansas this afternoon, with south
to southwest winds bringing a very warm and humid airmass into
eastern Kansas. 2 pm heat indices were commonly from 100 to 106
degrees.

Dewpoints not falling much in diurnal mixing, allowing some
weakening of the mid level cap to occur. Convergence along the
trough remains weak and seeing no evidence of cumulus along it under
the scattered high cloud, but will keep small thunderstorm chances
in place into the early evening. Expect the overnight hours to be
benign with weakening winds, but should see an increase in the high
cloud and this will help keep temps on the warm side.

Models are similar with weak warm air advection in the 12-20KFT layer
for much of Saturday and hard to rule out isolated very light precip
reaching the ground, somewhat favoring southern areas where moisture
appears a bit better.  Will again be watching the southeast
progression of another surface feature, this time a cold front as an
upper low pushes southeast into the Northern Plains. Cap strength
again will be rather strong but convergence a bit stronger than
today to keep small PoPs going. Still appears to be a wind threat
with marginal shear, high storm bases, and strong mid-level lapse
rates. The high cloud and overall weaker low level wind fields leads
to some uncertainty on how hot temps will be. 850MB thermal ridge
will still be in place however, but a bit farther south, where the
more cloud concern is, so believe temps will still be around 100F
for central and southern locations. In the north, still looking like
dewpoints should be higher along and behind the boundary to support
higher apparent temps despite cooler temps. Will go ahead with a
Heat Advisory despite somewhat low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For Saturday night, there remains some uncertainty in how quickly
the front will push south through the forecast area and some models
show it hanging up across the area for much of the night. With
models indicating some modest isentropic upglide along and ahead of
the boundary, have maintained the slight chance POPs through the
night.

By Sunday, drier and cooler air should be advecting in from the
north as a shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and begins
digging out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
Models keep the longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS
through the week and will likely allow temps to remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal for the end of July. Sunday through Tuesday
appears to remain dry. However by Tuesday night, the ECMWF and GFS
show weak shortwaves rounding the upper ridge to the west and
spilling over into the central high plains. This energy may allow
for some showers and thunderstorms to move into parts of eastern
KS Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Instability looks to be
pretty limited with much of the low level moisture pushed south
of the area.

For Thursday through Friday the models continue to generate some
sporadic QPF without an obvious shortwave or lift from a surface
boundary. Based off the GFS BUFKIT soundings, it appears as though
the models lack any inhibition to a surface parcel becoming
positively buoyant due to the cool mid level temps within the upper
trough. With this in mind, think the models may be developing
precip from day time heating. With no surface feature or wave to
denote higher chances for precip, think chances for precip would
be slight at best so have some 20 percent POPs in the daytime for
Thursday and Friday. Confidence in any given location seeing rain
is low, but can`t rule out the isolated storm popping up in the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through most of the period. There is a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorms after sunset. Coverage
and probability is still uncertain therefore did not add any extra
groups. Any storm that reaches the taf site has the potential of
briefly producing strong wind gusts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Upper high was over New Mexico today with mid and high level
moisture rotating around it into the Central Plains. This moisture
feed met up with a strong mid level thermal gradient from across
Iowa to bring persistent thunderstorms to eastern Missouri today.
Weak pressure rises were occurring behind a trough of low pressure
from eastern Nebraska to western Kansas this afternoon, with south
to southwest winds bringing a very warm and humid airmass into
eastern Kansas. 2 pm heat indices were commonly from 100 to 106
degrees.

Dewpoints not falling much in diurnal mixing, allowing some
weakening of the mid level cap to occur. Convergence along the
trough remains weak and seeing no evidence of cumulus along it under
the scattered high cloud, but will keep small thunderstorm chances
in place into the early evening. Expect the overnight hours to be
benign with weakening winds, but should see an increase in the high
cloud and this will help keep temps on the warm side.

Models are similar with weak warm air advection in the 12-20KFT layer
for much of Saturday and hard to rule out isolated very light precip
reaching the ground, somewhat favoring southern areas where moisture
appears a bit better.  Will again be watching the southeast
progression of another surface feature, this time a cold front as an
upper low pushes southeast into the Northern Plains. Cap strength
again will be rather strong but convergence a bit stronger than
today to keep small PoPs going. Still appears to be a wind threat
with marginal shear, high storm bases, and strong mid-level lapse
rates. The high cloud and overall weaker low level wind fields leads
to some uncertainty on how hot temps will be. 850MB thermal ridge
will still be in place however, but a bit farther south, where the
more cloud concern is, so believe temps will still be around 100F
for central and southern locations. In the north, still looking like
dewpoints should be higher along and behind the boundary to support
higher apparent temps despite cooler temps. Will go ahead with a
Heat Advisory despite somewhat low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For Saturday night, there remains some uncertainty in how quickly
the front will push south through the forecast area and some models
show it hanging up across the area for much of the night. With
models indicating some modest isentropic upglide along and ahead of
the boundary, have maintained the slight chance POPs through the
night.

By Sunday, drier and cooler air should be advecting in from the
north as a shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and begins
digging out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
Models keep the longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS
through the week and will likely allow temps to remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal for the end of July. Sunday through Tuesday
appears to remain dry. However by Tuesday night, the ECMWF and GFS
show weak shortwaves rounding the upper ridge to the west and
spilling over into the central high plains. This energy may allow
for some showers and thunderstorms to move into parts of eastern
KS Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Instability looks to be
pretty limited with much of the low level moisture pushed south
of the area.

For Thursday through Friday the models continue to generate some
sporadic QPF without an obvious shortwave or lift from a surface
boundary. Based off the GFS BUFKIT soundings, it appears as though
the models lack any inhibition to a surface parcel becoming
positively buoyant due to the cool mid level temps within the upper
trough. With this in mind, think the models may be developing
precip from day time heating. With no surface feature or wave to
denote higher chances for precip, think chances for precip would
be slight at best so have some 20 percent POPs in the daytime for
Thursday and Friday. Confidence in any given location seeing rain
is low, but can`t rule out the isolated storm popping up in the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Upper high was over New Mexico today with mid and high level
moisture rotating around it into the Central Plains. This moisture
feed met up with a strong mid level thermal gradient from across
Iowa to bring persistent thunderstorms to eastern Missouri today.
Weak pressure rises were occurring behind a trough of low pressure
from eastern Nebraska to western Kansas this afternoon, with south
to southwest winds bringing a very warm and humid airmass into
eastern Kansas. 2 pm heat indices were commonly from 100 to 106
degrees.

Dewpoints not falling much in diurnal mixing, allowing some
weakening of the mid level cap to occur. Convergence along the
trough remains weak and seeing no evidence of cumulus along it under
the scattered high cloud, but will keep small thunderstorm chances
in place into the early evening. Expect the overnight hours to be
benign with weakening winds, but should see an increase in the high
cloud and this will help keep temps on the warm side.

Models are similar with weak warm air advection in the 12-20KFT layer
for much of Saturday and hard to rule out isolated very light precip
reaching the ground, somewhat favoring southern areas where moisture
appears a bit better.  Will again be watching the southeast
progression of another surface feature, this time a cold front as an
upper low pushes southeast into the Northern Plains. Cap strength
again will be rather strong but convergence a bit stronger than
today to keep small PoPs going. Still appears to be a wind threat
with marginal shear, high storm bases, and strong mid-level lapse
rates. The high cloud and overall weaker low level wind fields leads
to some uncertainty on how hot temps will be. 850MB thermal ridge
will still be in place however, but a bit farther south, where the
more cloud concern is, so believe temps will still be around 100F
for central and southern locations. In the north, still looking like
dewpoints should be higher along and behind the boundary to support
higher apparent temps despite cooler temps. Will go ahead with a
Heat Advisory despite somewhat low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

For Saturday night, there remains some uncertainty in how quickly
the front will push south through the forecast area and some models
show it hanging up across the area for much of the night. With
models indicating some modest isentropic upglide along and ahead of
the boundary, have maintained the slight chance POPs through the
night.

By Sunday, drier and cooler air should be advecting in from the
north as a shortwave breaks down the upper level ridge and begins
digging out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS.
Models keep the longwave trough over the eastern half of the CONUS
through the week and will likely allow temps to remain 5 to 10
degrees below normal for the end of July. Sunday through Tuesday
appears to remain dry. However by Tuesday night, the ECMWF and GFS
show weak shortwaves rounding the upper ridge to the west and
spilling over into the central high plains. This energy may allow
for some showers and thunderstorms to move into parts of eastern
KS Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Instability looks to be
pretty limited with much of the low level moisture pushed south
of the area.

For Thursday through Friday the models continue to generate some
sporadic QPF without an obvious shortwave or lift from a surface
boundary. Based off the GFS BUFKIT soundings, it appears as though
the models lack any inhibition to a surface parcel becoming
positively buoyant due to the cool mid level temps within the upper
trough. With this in mind, think the models may be developing
precip from day time heating. With no surface feature or wave to
denote higher chances for precip, think chances for precip would
be slight at best so have some 20 percent POPs in the daytime for
Thursday and Friday. Confidence in any given location seeing rain
is low, but can`t rule out the isolated storm popping up in the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders








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