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000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Continued low level
shear developing after 08Z and lasting through 14Z as low level
winds around 800 ft increase into the 40 kt to 45 kt range and
surface winds remain under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Continued low level
shear developing after 08Z and lasting through 14Z as low level
winds around 800 ft increase into the 40 kt to 45 kt range and
surface winds remain under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Continued low level
shear developing after 08Z and lasting through 14Z as low level
winds around 800 ft increase into the 40 kt to 45 kt range and
surface winds remain under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Continued low level
shear developing after 08Z and lasting through 14Z as low level
winds around 800 ft increase into the 40 kt to 45 kt range and
surface winds remain under 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 052337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Although confidence is not high, will
go ahead with low level wind shear inclusion with surface winds
expected to be on low side of guidance and the low altitude of the
stronger winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 052337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Although confidence is not high, will
go ahead with low level wind shear inclusion with surface winds
expected to be on low side of guidance and the low altitude of the
stronger winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 052337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Although confidence is not high, will
go ahead with low level wind shear inclusion with surface winds
expected to be on low side of guidance and the low altitude of the
stronger winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 052337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Although confidence is not high, will
go ahead with low level wind shear inclusion with surface winds
expected to be on low side of guidance and the low altitude of the
stronger winds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 052152
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KTOP 052152
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KTOP 052152
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KTOP 052152
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A quiet pattern is in store for north central and northeast Kansas
for the next several days, with a steady warm up into more spring-
like weather through the next seven days. Surface pressure trends
show the surface ridge across eastern Missouri moving east with
time, which will allow for a tighter gradient to become more
established over the area. S/SW winds will pick up through the
overnight period, and persist through the day on Friday. The more
westerly component to the surface wind field, along with some
better mixing will allow for temps to rise into the 50s across the
entire area, with perhaps a few spots in central Kansas reaching
the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

The general warming trend will continue into the weekend, with
warmer H85 temps moving in, with the steady westerly and/or
southerly component to the surface winds. By Saturday temperatures
might be able to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area
as soundings indicate some better mixing for the weekend. The
forecast package reflects a dry forecast for the entire 7-day
period across the entire area, however one feature to perhaps
watch will come during the Saturday-Sunday time frame as a
southern stream mid level trough dives southward into northern
Mexico, then across Texas as it broadens out. ECMWF has shown a
rather aggressive push northward of some moisture, which will
likely fall short of our area; that being said will continue to
watch for the potential for some minimal rain Saturday night and
Sunday across SE Kansas. While the day-to-day warming for the
weekend will be somewhat minimal, meaning highs for Fri- Sun will
likely be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for all three days, a more
substantial warm up is in store for early next week, as both ECMWF
and GFS come to an agreement that the entire forecast area will be
located within deep within a warm sector, as a surface warm front
surges northward. Mid level ridging will keep the precipitation at
bay, while also providing some subsidence, which will work with
the SW surface flow to provide temps in the middle to upper 60s,
perhaps into the lower 70s for the Mon through Thursday period. With
warming temperatures and southwest winds picking up for early next
week may need to watch the potential for critical fire weather
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KTOP 051815
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Leighton








000
FXUS63 KTOP 051815
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Expecting VFR conditions for the entire forecast period. Model
soundings picking up on some low level moisture that hinted at
some MVFR CIGs for the early morning hours on Friday, but for now
will keep the VFR conditions in the forecast as the saturation
seemed overdone and spanned a thin layer. Also LLWS was
investigated, especially in the 08z to 13z with winds being
slightly more out of the west and around 40 knots around 1000
feet, but with surface winds out of the S/SW around 7-10 knots
kept that out of the forecast as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Leighton







000
FXUS63 KTOP 051136 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Terminals will remain VFR through the forecast period with only
a few mid and high clouds. Light east to northeasterly winds will
slowly veer to the southeast by 19z at speeds of 6-9 kts....then
persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 051136 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Terminals will remain VFR through the forecast period with only
a few mid and high clouds. Light east to northeasterly winds will
slowly veer to the southeast by 19z at speeds of 6-9 kts....then
persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 051136 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Terminals will remain VFR through the forecast period with only
a few mid and high clouds. Light east to northeasterly winds will
slowly veer to the southeast by 19z at speeds of 6-9 kts....then
persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63









000
FXUS63 KTOP 051136 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Terminals will remain VFR through the forecast period with only
a few mid and high clouds. Light east to northeasterly winds will
slowly veer to the southeast by 19z at speeds of 6-9 kts....then
persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63









000
FXUS63 KTOP 050856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 KTS
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 050856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
256 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Water vapor imagery at 0815Z confirming dry air and subsidence
across the county warning area that models are all showing will
persist through today. Cold surface high pressure ridge remains in
control with low temps this morning expected to be about 20
degrees below normal for early March. Although the ridge will
retreat to the east and winds will veer around to the south in the
afternoon with abundant sunshine...highs today will commonly be 15
degrees below average. Highs should range from near the freezing
mark at Hiawatha to near 40 in the Minneapolis vicinity.

For tonight...the combination of a few mid and high clouds and a
persistent southerly wind should help to limit low temps to the low
to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Northwest flow remains the predominant feature of the weather
pattern for the weekend and next week. Models continue to show
little if any low level moisture return while keeping any weak
perturbation within the flow mainly north of the forecast area.
because of this there is little reason to deviate from a dry
forecast.

The warming trend also looks on track and have only made minor
adjustments to the previous forecast. There remains indications of
a weak Pacific frontal boundary moving into the area this weekend
while weakening. For now there does not appear to be much in the
way of cold air associated with this boundary as models show only
very weak cold air advection. With this in mind and expecting
decent insolation to offset the weak wind shift, think highs are
still likely to be above normal. The strongest warm up is expected
to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday as models strengthen the thermal
ridge to the west of the forecast area. With model progs of 925 MB
temps around 15C, we could push the 70 degree mark in some
locations.

Uncertainty increases just beyond the forecast period as the GFS
and ECMWF show some divergence in their solutions of the synoptic
pattern. The GFS is stronger with energy digging southeast from AK
for the second half of the work week. This causes a Canadian
airmass to move south through the plains. Meanwhile the ECMWF is
almost the complete opposite of the GFS. This will be something to
watch in later runs of the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 KTS
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 050547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 kts
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 050547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 kts
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 050547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds north 10 kts
or less will gradually back to the southeast to south in the
17Z-21Z time period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 042341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
generally be less than 10 kts from the north, gradually backing to
the southeast in the 17Z-20Z time period on Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 042341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 541 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
generally be less than 10 kts from the north, gradually backing to
the southeast in the 17Z-20Z time period on Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 042142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 042142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 042142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Mid-level dry air advection fully underway this afternoon as the
main northern wave trough approaches the region from the
northwest. There is a slight chance for flurries in southeast KS
this afternoon, although lift is rather weak and precip rates
fairly low, therefore it is unlikely for snow to even reach the
ground. As the main northern wave continues to push southward the
clouds currently over spreading the area will exit making way for
mostly clear skies overnight. At the surface high pressure builds
into KS tonight and into tomorrow. This allows winds to diminish
and become calm setting the stage for decent radiational cooling.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the single
digits and lower teens. Dry air in the lower levels should prevent
any fog or haze from developing. The surface ridge axis should
exit the area by tomorrow evening leaving most locations in return
flow. The southerly wind shift should occur over central KS late
morning allowing temps to rise into the lower 40s, while eastern
KS stays in the mid 30s. Skies are expected to generally remain
mostly clear tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Friday and Saturday will be a period of warming as the mean trough
shifts slightly east and the track of systems within the northwest
flow do likewise. Some weak influence from cold fronts associated
with these systems is possible late Saturday, but it appears that
the bulk of cold advection will be to the east. At the same time,
ample sunshine is expected with southwest winds on Friday and
westerly winds on Saturday will promote deep mixing. Temps just off
the surface are expected to warm nicely while significantly drying
as well...and expect temperatures to climb well into the 50s each
day. RH will likely be lower than most all model guidance
(especially the NAM) due to poor handling of the boundary layer
mixing. Friday looks to have the strongest winds with gusts
approaching 25 while Saturday has the greatest potential for RH to
plummet albeit with less wind. Either way, fire danger may be
elevated on either or both days. Dry conditions are expected for
this period.

For Sunday through Wednesday, expect to continue the warming trend
with a broad long-wave ridge in place. Temps could approach the
upper 60s and possibly reach the 70 mark. With dry conditions and
no major disturbances forecast, the weather conditions should
remain dry and quite comfortable for the first part of the week.
It is possible after the forecast period for a weak cold front to
enter northeastern Kansas, but not entirely clear at this time if
there will be enough moisture return to cause much in the way of
any precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 041720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 041720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 041720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 041720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

All sites will remain VFR throughout the period with ceilings
continuing to lift throughout the afternoon.  Gusty, northerly winds
will die down by 00 UTC and winds will become mostly calm overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 041138
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Will continue with a VFR forecast at all terminals as MVFR cigs
and IFR vsbys in snow remain south of the TAF sites thru the
period. Ceilings around 6 kft will steadily improve beyond 15z.
Gusty north winds will gradually decrease aft 15z with speeds
under 6 kts by 00z/05.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 041138
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
538 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Will continue with a VFR forecast at all terminals as MVFR cigs
and IFR vsbys in snow remain south of the TAF sites thru the
period. Ceilings around 6 kft will steadily improve beyond 15z.
Gusty north winds will gradually decrease aft 15z with speeds
under 6 kts by 00z/05.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 040925
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR to MVFR CIGS will be common through 10Z then predominately
MVFR through 15Z then becoming VFR by 17Z. Snow will be possible
at the terminals in the 10Z-15Z period with MVFR VSBY at times. North
winds around 10 KTS with gusts near 18 KTS through 13Z then north
at 10 KTS before decreasing to less than 10 KTS after 00Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 040925
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing deeper moisture aloft surging
northeast from the Baja upper low across the southeast half of KS
and into the OH river valley. At the same time the southern
portion of a shortwave trough continues to support a weakening
band of snow near the NE border with a stronger upstream wave in
the Dakotas. The area of snow across the far northern CWA is
expected to diminish through sunrise as the better and stronger
focus for a band of snow sets up across the southern portions of
the CWA through 15Z. The better forcing from mid level
frontogenesis will be along and south of I 35 before slowly
shifting southward through midday. Expect Lyon...Coffey and
Anderson counties to be most affected through mid morning with an
inch or two possible before snow decreases and shifts southward.
With thicker clouds and precipitation across the east
central...highs today will be coldest in that area in the middle
to upper 20s...with readings closer to 30 north of I 70 where some
afternoon sunshine is expected.

Tonight should be dry...cold and mostly clear with decreasing winds.
Lows should range from 6 to 11 degrees...although the lows across
the east central counties may need to be lowered with any
significant snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Models remain consistent in a dry northwest flow setting up for
Thursday through Tuesday. In this pattern, low level trajectories
are typically from the southwest and low level moisture advection
is hard to come by. This is the case in the latest model guidance
showing 850 MB winds retaining some westerly component through the
period. Additionally models have backed off on any potential low
amplitude shortwave moving across northeast KS, trending to track
these waves further north during the weekend. So with limited
moisture and no organized forcing anticipated by the models, the
forecast calls for dry weather with temps trending warmer.

Thursday should be the coldest day in the period as the surface
ridge axis begins the day over eastern KS. However with good
insolation think most areas will warm above freezing with some
spots in central KS reaching 40 where mixing may end up being a
little deeper. The warming trend should kick off for Friday as
warm air advects in from the southwest. There is the potential for
some weak Pacific fronts to move through the area over the
weekend per the 12Z ECMWF. Because of this have not gotten carried
away with the temps opting to keep highs in the upper 50s to
around 60. Lows should be around 30, which is close to normal for
this time of year, since much of the cold air should be bottled
up well northeast. Think early next week will be the warmest
period as the GFS and ECMWF show 925 temps warming to between 10C
and 15C. With this in mind, have highs is the middle 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR to MVFR CIGS will be common through 10Z then predominately
MVFR through 15Z then becoming VFR by 17Z. Snow will be possible
at the terminals in the 10Z-15Z period with MVFR VSBY at times. North
winds around 10 KTS with gusts near 18 KTS through 13Z then north
at 10 KTS before decreasing to less than 10 KTS after 00Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...53









000
FXUS63 KTOP 040548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR to mvfr cigs will be common through 10Z then predominately
MVFR through 15Z then becoming VFR by 17Z. Snow will be possible
at the terminals in the 10Z-15Z period with mvfr vsbys at times. North
winds around 10 kts with gusts near 18 kts through 13Z then north
at 10 kts before decreasing to less than 10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 040548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR to mvfr cigs will be common through 10Z then predominately
MVFR through 15Z then becoming VFR by 17Z. Snow will be possible
at the terminals in the 10Z-15Z period with mvfr vsbys at times. North
winds around 10 kts with gusts near 18 kts through 13Z then north
at 10 kts before decreasing to less than 10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 040548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR to mvfr cigs will be common through 10Z then predominately
MVFR through 15Z then becoming VFR by 17Z. Snow will be possible
at the terminals in the 10Z-15Z period with mvfr vsbys at times. North
winds around 10 kts with gusts near 18 kts through 13Z then north
at 10 kts before decreasing to less than 10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 032348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Mostly VFR CIGS/VIS during the period. The cold push is well under
way and there is a small chance for a flurry to possibly a quick
inch of snow as a band may set up during the 12z time frame. Confidence
on timing and location is low. If this does develop, it is
expected to be a short event. Generally improving conditions
throughout the day Wednesday with MVFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 032348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Mostly VFR CIGS/VIS during the period. The cold push is well under
way and there is a small chance for a flurry to possibly a quick
inch of snow as a band may set up during the 12z time frame. Confidence
on timing and location is low. If this does develop, it is
expected to be a short event. Generally improving conditions
throughout the day Wednesday with MVFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 032348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Mostly VFR CIGS/VIS during the period. The cold push is well under
way and there is a small chance for a flurry to possibly a quick
inch of snow as a band may set up during the 12z time frame. Confidence
on timing and location is low. If this does develop, it is
expected to be a short event. Generally improving conditions
throughout the day Wednesday with MVFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 032348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Mostly VFR CIGS/VIS during the period. The cold push is well under
way and there is a small chance for a flurry to possibly a quick
inch of snow as a band may set up during the 12z time frame. Confidence
on timing and location is low. If this does develop, it is
expected to be a short event. Generally improving conditions
throughout the day Wednesday with MVFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 032130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 032130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Today the mid-level trough continued to deepen, with the trough axis
extending from the Northern Plains into the southwestern U.S.  At
the surface, the cold front had exited the forecast area by mid
afternoon with surface high pressure advancing into the area behind
the front. With the frontal passage, winds shifted to the northwest
resulting in cold air advection and falling temperatures for most
locations through this afternoon. These northerly winds will support
cold air advection overnight through tomorrow with lows in the
mid/upper teens and Wednesday highs only reaching into the upper
20s/low 30s.

The main focus of the short-term forecast (as well as the biggest
adjustment from the previous forecast) is the increased potential
for precipitation late tonight through Wednesday morning. Several
short-range models are showing increased forcing and lift as the
trough axis advances into the Central Plains. In fact, models show
one decent band of precipitation setting up along and behind the
cold front that exited the area today, but some of the associated
precipitation may extend as far north as our far southern portions
of the forecast area.  A second batch of moisture seems to be
associated with the enhanced forcing noted ahead of the advancing
trough axis. We have seen very light reflectivity returns on radar
across far east central Kansas for much of the day and model
soundings show that low-level saturation may increase enough this
evening to produce some very light rain showers or drizzle.
Precipitation chances increase late evening into the overnight hours
as the 2 regions of moisture try to converge near the forecast area.
While the better chances for precipitation look to be along and
south of I-70, portions of north central and far northern Kansas may
get clipped by the western wave overnight. Drier air from the
advancing surface high pressure should help to end the precipitation
from north to south during the morning hours with some light
lingering precipitation possible over far east central Kansas during
the afternoon. Temperatures across the entire outlook area should
drop below freezing by mid evening. Soundings have temperatures
aloft cooling as well, so do not anticipate a warm nose above
freezing as the column saturates. As a result, a majority of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow. While the best forcing
and lift looks to be centered over southern Kansas, some models are
suggesting that modest forcing/lift could extend as far north as the
I-70 corridor. Additionally, there are signs of some elevated
instability extending northward into the area overnight into
Wednesday morning as well, which could enhance precipitation totals.
Due to this recent shift in the forecast models, confidence is on
the low side with regards to possible snow accumulations. At this
time, have snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 1.5 inches along
and south of a line stretching from Minneapolis to Abilene to
Garnett with lesser amounts north of this line. However, it`s worth
noting that if any enforced snow bands develop across east central
Kansas then some slightly higher snowfall totals will be possible.
We will continue to monitor the short-term model trends and adjust
the forecast as needed this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Lower to middle levels continue to dry Wednesday night as cold high
pressure builds in. This should end any precip ending by the early
evening. There remains some wind aloft and high cloud looks to
remain into the evening so don`t expect a prime radiational cooling
setup, but lows still should drop to around 10. Warm advection
becomes the rule under persistent west-northwest flow aloft for good
insolation. Westerly winds around 850mb should yield noticeable
temperature gradients from west to east Thursday and Friday with
highs back to near to even slightly above normal values for Friday.
Models are similar in a few weak fronts passing over the weekend
bringing minor uncertainty in temps, but mid to upper 50s expected
to dominate. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific makes eastward
progress to near the West Coast into early next week for warmer
temps by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 031743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 031743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 031743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 031743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

For the 18z TAFs, MVFR cigs will persist through early/mid afternoon
before scattering out to VFR cigs this evening and overnight. With
the passage of the cold front, winds will continue to veer to the
northwest and eventually north northeast by Wednesday morning.
Short-range models have been hinting more at the potential for some
light snow to clip the TAF sites Wednesday morning so went ahead and
added a mention for a couple of hours. Any snow accumulations should
be less than one-half inch. Wind gusts should diminish by Wednesday
morning with a return to VFR cigs by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE should lift to mvfr towards 13z as drier air
starts to shift eastward...then scatter out around 2500 feet by 15z.
MVFR cigs at KMHK will scatter out around 2500 feet near 14Z.
Veering gusty southwest to west winds of 15 to 25 kts will become
northerly in the 19Z-21Z timeframe as the cold front moves through
with cigs 3000-4000 ft for the remainder of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE should lift to mvfr towards 13z as drier air
starts to shift eastward...then scatter out around 2500 feet by 15z.
MVFR cigs at KMHK will scatter out around 2500 feet near 14Z.
Veering gusty southwest to west winds of 15 to 25 kts will become
northerly in the 19Z-21Z timeframe as the cold front moves through
with cigs 3000-4000 ft for the remainder of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE should lift to mvfr towards 13z as drier air
starts to shift eastward...then scatter out around 2500 feet by 15z.
MVFR cigs at KMHK will scatter out around 2500 feet near 14Z.
Veering gusty southwest to west winds of 15 to 25 kts will become
northerly in the 19Z-21Z timeframe as the cold front moves through
with cigs 3000-4000 ft for the remainder of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE should lift to mvfr towards 13z as drier air
starts to shift eastward...then scatter out around 2500 feet by 15z.
MVFR cigs at KMHK will scatter out around 2500 feet near 14Z.
Veering gusty southwest to west winds of 15 to 25 kts will become
northerly in the 19Z-21Z timeframe as the cold front moves through
with cigs 3000-4000 ft for the remainder of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 030936
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IFR CIGS advecting northward toward terminals and will carry as
prevailing through 12Z. Have some improvement as potential rain
showers move through in the morning followed by some drier air
aloft breaking up clouds by mid morning. 3 KFT deck possibly lower
returns with frontal passage and continues through the forecast
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 030936
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IFR CIGS advecting northward toward terminals and will carry as
prevailing through 12Z. Have some improvement as potential rain
showers move through in the morning followed by some drier air
aloft breaking up clouds by mid morning. 3 KFT deck possibly lower
returns with frontal passage and continues through the forecast
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 030936
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IFR CIGS advecting northward toward terminals and will carry as
prevailing through 12Z. Have some improvement as potential rain
showers move through in the morning followed by some drier air
aloft breaking up clouds by mid morning. 3 KFT deck possibly lower
returns with frontal passage and continues through the forecast
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 030936
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

Latest water vapor imagery showing one shortwave lifting east
northeast across Co with a positive tilt northern stream trough in
its wake extending from MT into UT. The initial shortwave will
lift into the northern plains and will push a dry slot into the
CWA effectively ending light rain/drizzle chances across the far
east by mid morning. At the same time a cold front will also
steadily progress southeast across the county warning area through
the day...entering the northwest corner of the CWA by late morning
and exiting the southeast counties by mid to late afternoon. This
will produce morning highs in the lower 40s in the north central
with midday highs across the remainder of the CWA except the far
southeast corner. With a slightly slower arrival have edged highs
to around 50 in the southeast half of the CWA.

Tonight...the trailing portion of the shearing positive tilt
shortwave trough may push a band of light snow or flurries into the
northwest half of the CWA with frontogenesis and lift slowly across
the southern portions of the CWA...although saturation looks better
further south. Will therefore go with a low end chance pop late
tonight for light snow in the far north central and far southern
counties and only a slight chance for light snow elsewhere as drier
air in the low levels will be advecting in from the northeast. This
could play a significant role in determining the areal extent of any
light snow across the CWA through sunrise. With strong cold air
advection...will continue with lows in the teens all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

The main question for Wednesday is how fast will dry air advect
into the region as the surface high builds south. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all have similar solution in their synoptic patterns
and with mid level frontogenesis moving through eastern KS.
However the GFS shows much dryer low level air moving in by
Wednesday morning while the NAM doesn`t. Unfortunately there could
be quite a difference in sensible weather between the dry GFS and
moist NAM. Both models indicate there will at least be some
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) with the NAM showing up
right or convective instability Wednesday morning. The models also
suggest snow to water ratios should be above normal given the cold
temperatures. So it is not out of the question given the
instability and high ratios that a quick couple of inches of snow
could accumulate across east central KS. The NAM is a wet outlier
compared to the other deterministic models and the WPC does not
favor its solutions at all. However with the ECMWF also bringing
some QPF into east central KS and there being similarities between
the NAM and GFS, am hesitant to completely discount it. With the
surface front expected to move through the area today, one would
think there is plenty of time for the low level dry air to advect
in. So have increased POPs across east central KS to account for
the model progs of frontogenesis and instability, but confidence
is low because of the potential for dry low level air to win out.
Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to around 30 due to
limited insolation and cold air advection through the day. Left
Wednesday evening dry thinking the dry air will eventually win
out.

The main upper trough should finally move east of the forecast area
Wednesday night, and by Friday models are in agreement that
northwest flow aloft redevelops with southwesterly low level winds
bringing warmer air into eastern KS. Therefore have maintained a
dry forecast for Thursday through Monday with temps trending
warmer and above normal through the weekend. Have highs in the
upper 50s by Monday, but this may be to conservative of a warming
trend since the ECMWF is warmer than the GFS at 925 MB by about
3C. The ECMWF and GFS show a couple low amplitude shortwaves
moving through the central plains for the weekend. Moisture is
expected to remain to limited to add a chance for precip at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

IFR CIGS advecting northward toward terminals and will carry as
prevailing through 12Z. Have some improvement as potential rain
showers move through in the morning followed by some drier air
aloft breaking up clouds by mid morning. 3 KFT deck possibly lower
returns with frontal passage and continues through the forecast
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







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