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000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Southwest edge of main mvfr stratocu deck should remain just
north and east of the KTOP/KFOE terminals thru 21z with a more
scattered area of stratocu in the 4-5 kft foot layer over the TAF
sites before clearing completely by 23z. Stronger diurnal mixing
will promote more sustained gusts as well beyond the 14-15z time
frame. Decreasing northwest winds and clear skies should be the
rule at all terminal sites aft 23z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Southwest edge of main mvfr stratocu deck should remain just
north and east of the KTOP/KFOE terminals thru 21z with a more
scattered area of stratocu in the 4-5 kft foot layer over the TAF
sites before clearing completely by 23z. Stronger diurnal mixing
will promote more sustained gusts as well beyond the 14-15z time
frame. Decreasing northwest winds and clear skies should be the
rule at all terminal sites aft 23z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240947
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240947
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240947
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240947
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the eastern
county warning area which will swing eastward away from the area
through the day. Although drier air and subsidence in its wake will
dominate...a stratocu deck extending from the northern plains into
the northeast corner of the cwa may lingering thru midday before
shifting eastward out of the cwa in the afternoon. With abundant mid
afternoon sunshine most areas...have increased high temps slightly
through the low to mid 40s...although the far northeast corner will
likely remain in the upper 30s.

For tonight..clear skies...decreasing winds and dry air in the llvl
will all contribute to a colder night with readings generally in the
lower 20s. If winds are able to decouple better late in the
night...could see some lows in the teens. Either way...tranquil but
unseasonably cold.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Tuesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), A longer wave length upper
level trough will remain in place across the east central conus. The
CWA will be in northwesterly flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures.

Tuesday night, an upper level trough cross west central Canada
will dig southeast into the northern plains and mid MS river valley.
The stronger ascent ahead of this H5 trough will remains northeast
and east of the CWA. There may be enough lift for a few flurries or
snow showers across the extreme portions of northeast KS during the
evening hours.

Wednesday, the upper level trough will dig southeast into the OH
valley and amplify the longer wave-length trough across the east
central conus. Stronger low-level CAA across the upper Midwest will
bring another surge of cold air southward across the upper Midwest
southward across IA into MO. The stronger CAA will be east of the
CWA but temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Wednesday night the center of
the surface ridge axis will move east across the CWA. Clear skies
and light winds will cause overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving), the surface ridge will push east into the
mid MS river valley. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing
high clouds. Light surface winds will become southeasterly through
the afternoon hours. After a cold start, highs will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Saturday, The longer wave-length upper trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the Atlantic as the
upper level flow across the plains becomes zonal. Southerly winds
will help highs to warm into the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday night and Sunday, Both the ECMWF and GFS show an H5 trough
digging southeast out of northwest Canada into the northern plains.
Strong low-level CAA across the northern plains into the upper
Midwest will bring a cold front southward across the CWA late
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The coldest air will remain
northeast of the CWA, though Sunday Highs will cool into the upper
30s to lower 40s, highs on Sunday may be cooler, in the 30s, based
on the latest 00Z runs.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240525
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the I35 corridor this afternoon.  Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours.  Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then.  Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east.  With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the Northern Plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0Z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12Z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more backed aloft into the
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12Z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240525
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the I35 corridor this afternoon.  Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours.  Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then.  Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east.  With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the Northern Plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0Z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12Z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more backed aloft into the
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12Z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. With the rain showers exiting east of the area, ceilings
were lifting and only expect some VFR low/mid clouds through Monday
night. While winds have subsided some near KMHK, gusty northwesterly
winds should persist near KTOP/KFOE overnight and spread to all of
the TAF sites through the day on Monday as a tight pressure gradient
remains in place over the region. Expect these northwesterly winds
to diminish by late afternoon and remain light through the evening
hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the I35 corridor this afternoon.  Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours.  Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then.  Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east.  With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the Northern Plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0Z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12Z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more backed aloft into the
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12Z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For the 00z TAFs, areas of light rain will continue to track
across the TAF sites before exiting east of the area by mid
evening. Cigs/vis should steadily improve as dry air quickly moves
in behind the rain, with VFR conditions expected through the
remainder of the period. The tight pressure gradient in place over
the region should stay anchored over the region through tonight and
most of the day on Monday, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds of
20-25kts persisting through the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232105
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the I35 corridor this afternoon.  Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours.  Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then.  Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east.  With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the Northern Plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0Z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12Z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more backed aloft into the
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12Z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Trend still appears to be for MVFR cigs and visby to continue,
with a band of IFR a few hours before the front passes at TOP/FOE.
Anticipate light rain will prevail, with a band of moderate rain
traversing the terminals through the evening hours. Rain ends late
evening and cigs lift to VFR around 3500ft. Rain/Snow mix appears
brief enough to remove mention in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232105
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area, headed toward the I35 corridor this afternoon.  Intermittent
rain showers and drizzle continue for much of the area, with a more
continuous band of light to moderate rain along and west of
Manhattan, likely associated with mid level frontogenesis and
deformation as the upper trof progresses eastward.

Expect this band to continue moving eastward and for gusty winds to
continue through the evening hours.  Have progressed rain chances
through midnight and ended west to east by then.  Temperatures in
the low levels continue to be warm enough in the precipitation area
to stay as rain, although back edge could see a brief mix as it
exits to the east.  With winds staying up in the 10-15 mph range and
as secondary push of clouds with the main trof moving through,
expect well mixed overnight lows around 30 for our area. A slow
clearing and mixing up to about 850mb should bring highs back up
into the upper 30s NE to the lower 40s SW for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Mainly zonal flow leads to very low chances for precipitation
through next weekend, with temperatures being the primary
challenge.

Modest warm air advection Tuesday should lead to a slight
warm up from Monday. Clouds increase Tuesday night as a shortwave
quickly moves southeast mainly through the Northern Plains with a
slightly cooler Wednesday resulting, and further cooler Thursday as
high pressure builds in. Uncertainty in the specifics of the upper
pattern lead to a rather lower confidence forecast Friday into
the weekend. 0Z ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the 12Z GFS, are
slightly more cyclonic aloft, allowing Canadian air to surge in
for the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more backed aloft into the
Rockies, pushing 850mb and surface temps into near record levels
for the end of November. 12Z GFS ensembles showing similarly large
ranges, giving little direction. At this point have kept temps on
the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Trend still appears to be for MVFR cigs and visby to continue,
with a band of IFR a few hours before the front passes at TOP/FOE.
Anticipate light rain will prevail, with a band of moderate rain
traversing the terminals through the evening hours. Rain ends late
evening and cigs lift to VFR around 3500ft. Rain/Snow mix appears
brief enough to remove mention in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231728
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occurring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Trend still appears to be for MVFR cigs and visby to continue,
with a band of IFR a few hours before the front passes at TOP/FOE.
Anticipate light rain will prevail, with a band of moderate rain
traversing the terminals through the evening hours. Rain ends late
evening and cigs lift to VFR around 3500ft. Rain/Snow mix appears
brief enough to remove mention in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231728
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occurring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Trend still appears to be for MVFR cigs and visby to continue,
with a band of IFR a few hours before the front passes at TOP/FOE.
Anticipate light rain will prevail, with a band of moderate rain
traversing the terminals through the evening hours. Rain ends late
evening and cigs lift to VFR around 3500ft. Rain/Snow mix appears
brief enough to remove mention in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Current IFR/MVFR conditions are expected to hang on at all terminals
until late this evening.  Low ceilings and reduced visibilities are
currently accompanied by widespread drizzle.  This precipitation
will transition to light rainshowers by 17Z as a cold front begins
tracking eastward across the area.  VCTS is still mentioned due to
weak elevated instability ahead of this front.  After the passage,
winds will veer from the south to the northwest, and increase to
sustained speeds of 20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts.  Colder air
behind the front will allow for a rain/snow mix until precipitation
finally exits all terminals by 06Z.  After this time, winds are
still expected to remain gusty, but skies will begin to clear to VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Current IFR/MVFR conditions are expected to hang on at all terminals
until late this evening.  Low ceilings and reduced visibilities are
currently accompanied by widespread drizzle.  This precipitation
will transition to light rainshowers by 17Z as a cold front begins
tracking eastward across the area.  VCTS is still mentioned due to
weak elevated instability ahead of this front.  After the passage,
winds will veer from the south to the northwest, and increase to
sustained speeds of 20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts.  Colder air
behind the front will allow for a rain/snow mix until precipitation
finally exits all terminals by 06Z.  After this time, winds are
still expected to remain gusty, but skies will begin to clear to VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
Early this morning an upper level trough was moving into the the
high plains. An upstream upper level trough was lifting northeast
across eastern TX into AR and LA. The stronger 850mb moisture
advection was located from southeast TX, north-northeast to across
MO. Heavier rain showers were developing across western MO. Wide
spread light to moderate drizzle was occuring across much of the
cwa. The denser fog will remain well north and northwest of the CWA
this morning.

At 2 AM,  a surface cold front was moving southeast across central
NE, southwest across northwest KS into the northwest TX PNHDL. This
front will push southeast across the CWA during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Highs Today will occur just before FROPA, then
temperatures will fall through the 40s during the afternoon hours
behind the surface front.

The upper level trough across the high plains will slowly move east
across the state of KS Today and this evening. As the upper level
trough moves east, stronger ascent will cause widespread showers to
develop across north central KS late this morning these showers will
spread east across the CWA during the afternoon. The 00Z NAM and 00Z
ARP(WRF) both showed 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE developing across the
warm sector ahead of the front. I would not be surprised is a few
weak isolated thunderstorms developed across the southeast counties
of the CWA during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface front.

A surface low across northwest OK will deepen slightly as it moves
east-northeast into southwest MO late this afternoon. The surface
pressure gradient across KS will tighten behind the front. Northwest
winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts of 40 MPH. Some
areas across the southern counties of the CWA may reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours this afternoon into the early
evening hours. At this time the stronger surface winds will remain
across central and south central KS.

As the center of the H5 trough moves east across central KS this
evening, forecast sounding show vertical temperature profiles
cooling below freezing. However, the boundary layer may remain too
warm for snow. I added a slight chance for rain mixed with snow on
the trailing edge of the light precip across the CWA during the
evening hours. All the light precip will end before midnight when
surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus no slick roads
are expected while the precip is falling. Any road surfaces that
remain wet late Tonight may freeze causing some icy spots, however
the stronger winds may dry road surfaces sufficiently to prevent any
ice from forming.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

As the last lobe of energy rotates around the base of the upper
level northern stream trough...drying and subsidence in its wake
will overspread the cwa. There will be another weak shortwave trough
passage late Tuesday/early Wednesday...although it appears any
precipitation associated with it will remain north of the cwa. The
upper trough is not as deep by Thanksgiving Day as previous model
runs had indicated...so as a result the degree of cold air advection
is also weaker. Following highs generally in the 40s through
Wednesday...only expect a slight cooldown into the 30s across the
northern cwa with the 40s persisting across the south. The overall
longwave pattern changes little into the weekend with a somewhat
zonal flow across the country. Will therefore maintain highs in the
upper 30s and 40s with a dry forecast continuing. Lows will
generally be in the 20s with some lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230541
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Noon)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Many locations across the area have reached 60 degrees today, as
warm air streams northward across Kansas ahead of the southern
upper trof. Convection remains across Texas and Oklahoma, while
morning low clouds and drizzle have started to thin in afternoon
mixing.

Expect clouds and rain chances to return overnight, although
chances should be slight. By around sunrise, piece of the southern
wave lifts over the eastern part of the state and increases rain
chances. Even some elevated instability and a rumble of thunder is
possible especially east. Next cold front races into the north
central counties through the morning hours. Expect strong winds
and rain chances along with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

By mid day Sunday the shortwave associated with the main trough
swings over the plains. This advancing trough will drive a cold
front into the forecast area from the northwest, which looks to
arrive in north central KS around 15Z. Further south a low pressure
will form over northeast OK and lift northeastward into MO. Strong
cold air advection behind the front will usher in temperatures into
the low 40s and upper 30s. A decent layer of frontogenesis will
coincide with the large scale lift to produce a post frontal band of
precipitation. This band will move into north central KS around 18Z
and progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
The predominate precipitation type will be rain especially
initially. As colder air filters in the sounding becomes almost
fully sub freezing with the exception of the boundary layer. Some of
the lift will occur in the dendritic growth layer with a deep layer
of saturation in place increasing the chances for ice crystals in
the cloud. These ice crystals have a good chance of melting in the
1500 ft warm layer at the surface. With full saturation wet bulb
temperatures may only cool the air to around 3 C. Although, if the
frontogenesis band precipitation is intense enough then you could
potentially cool this warm layer due to melting causing a brief
change over to a wet snow. Especially if the better lift
concentrates in the snow growth layer. At the moment I only
mentioned a chance for a rain snow mix. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time given temperatures in the morning will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s, and QPF generally under a quarter of
an inch.

The other issue behind the front will be the strong northwest flow.
Expect surface winds will quickly increase with the frontal passage
given winds at the top of the mixing layer will be around 45 kts and
a decent pressure gradient moves through. It does not appear that
winds will reach advisory criteria, but can not rule out 35 mph
gusts. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the extended, which will
be characterized by a few shortwaves translating across the northern
US. The most notable wave passes well north of us on Wednesday
dragging a cold front through the area bringing only an outside
chance of light precipitation. The GFS is less impressive with this
wave and therefore the cold air is slightly delayed until Thurs.
Surface pressure from Canada looks to take over for the remaining
period as the pattern aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures will
generally be characterized by highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230541
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Noon)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Many locations across the area have reached 60 degrees today, as
warm air streams northward across Kansas ahead of the southern
upper trof. Convection remains across Texas and Oklahoma, while
morning low clouds and drizzle have started to thin in afternoon
mixing.

Expect clouds and rain chances to return overnight, although
chances should be slight. By around sunrise, piece of the southern
wave lifts over the eastern part of the state and increases rain
chances. Even some elevated instability and a rumble of thunder is
possible especially east. Next cold front races into the north
central counties through the morning hours. Expect strong winds
and rain chances along with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

By mid day Sunday the shortwave associated with the main trough
swings over the plains. This advancing trough will drive a cold
front into the forecast area from the northwest, which looks to
arrive in north central KS around 15Z. Further south a low pressure
will form over northeast OK and lift northeastward into MO. Strong
cold air advection behind the front will usher in temperatures into
the low 40s and upper 30s. A decent layer of frontogenesis will
coincide with the large scale lift to produce a post frontal band of
precipitation. This band will move into north central KS around 18Z
and progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
The predominate precipitation type will be rain especially
initially. As colder air filters in the sounding becomes almost
fully sub freezing with the exception of the boundary layer. Some of
the lift will occur in the dendritic growth layer with a deep layer
of saturation in place increasing the chances for ice crystals in
the cloud. These ice crystals have a good chance of melting in the
1500 ft warm layer at the surface. With full saturation wet bulb
temperatures may only cool the air to around 3 C. Although, if the
frontogenesis band precipitation is intense enough then you could
potentially cool this warm layer due to melting causing a brief
change over to a wet snow. Especially if the better lift
concentrates in the snow growth layer. At the moment I only
mentioned a chance for a rain snow mix. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time given temperatures in the morning will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s, and QPF generally under a quarter of
an inch.

The other issue behind the front will be the strong northwest flow.
Expect surface winds will quickly increase with the frontal passage
given winds at the top of the mixing layer will be around 45 kts and
a decent pressure gradient moves through. It does not appear that
winds will reach advisory criteria, but can not rule out 35 mph
gusts. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the extended, which will
be characterized by a few shortwaves translating across the northern
US. The most notable wave passes well north of us on Wednesday
dragging a cold front through the area bringing only an outside
chance of light precipitation. The GFS is less impressive with this
wave and therefore the cold air is slightly delayed until Thurs.
Surface pressure from Canada looks to take over for the remaining
period as the pattern aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures will
generally be characterized by highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

For the 06z TAFs, southerly winds are gradually diminishing some for
the early overnight hours with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the
potential for drizzle increases overnight into Sunday morning,
expect cigs to drop to IFR and possibly even near LIFR conditions
with slightly reduced visibilities as well. However, sustained winds
of 7-10kts overnight into Sunday should reduce the potential for
widespread fog development and thus it should limit just how low
visibilities drop. The potential for light rain increases late
morning into the afternoon hours, and models continue to show the
potential for some weak elevated instability so have kept the
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. A cold front will track eastward during
the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in winds veering
from south to northwest and wind speeds increasing behind the front
with gusts of at least 20-30kts. These winds will usher cooler air
into the region, resulting in the potential for a rain/snow mix
before the precipitation finally exits the TAF sites by late
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230001
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Noon)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Many locations across the area have reached 60 degrees today, as
warm air streams northward across Kansas ahead of the southern
upper trof. Convection remains across Texas and Oklahoma, while
morning low clouds and drizzle have started to thin in afternoon
mixing.

Expect clouds and rain chances to return overnight, although
chances should be slight. By around sunrise, piece of the southern
wave lifts over the eastern part of the state and increases rain
chances. Even some elevated instability and a rumble of thunder is
possible especially east. Next cold front races into the north
central counties through the morning hours. Expect strong winds
and rain chances along with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

By mid day Sunday the shortwave associated with the main trough
swings over the plains. This advancing trough will drive a cold
front into the forecast area from the northwest, which looks to
arrive in north central KS around 15Z. Further south a low pressure
will form over northeast OK and lift northeastward into MO. Strong
cold air advection behind the front will usher in temperatures into
the low 40s and upper 30s. A decent layer of frontogenesis will
coincide with the large scale lift to produce a post frontal band of
precipitation. This band will move into north central KS around 18Z
and progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
The predominate precipitation type will be rain especially
initially. As colder air filters in the sounding becomes almost
fully sub freezing with the exception of the boundary layer. Some of
the lift will occur in the dendritic growth layer with a deep layer
of saturation in place increasing the chances for ice crystals in
the cloud. These ice crystals have a good chance of melting in the
1500 ft warm layer at the surface. With full saturation wet bulb
temperatures may only cool the air to around 3 C. Although, if the
frontogenesis band precipitation is intense enough then you could
potentially cool this warm layer due to melting causing a brief
change over to a wet snow. Especially if the better lift
concentrates in the snow growth layer. At the moment I only
mentioned a chance for a rain snow mix. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time given temperatures in the morning will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s, and QPF generally under a quarter of
an inch.

The other issue behind the front will be the strong northwest flow.
Expect surface winds will quickly increase with the frontal passage
given winds at the top of the mixing layer will be around 45 kts and
a decent pressure gradient moves through. It does not appear that
winds will reach advisory criteria, but can not rule out 35 mph
gusts. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the extended, which will
be characterized by a few shortwaves translating across the northern
US. The most notable wave passes well north of us on Wednesday
dragging a cold front through the area bringing only an outside
chance of light precipitation. The GFS is less impressive with this
wave and therefore the cold air is slightly delayed until Thurs.
Surface pressure from Canada looks to take over for the remaining
period as the pattern aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures will
generally be characterized by highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

This TAF period will remain challenging much like the previous
one. CIGS/VIS continue to hinder some ops at all terminals.
IFR/LIFR conditions are a strong possibility during the overnight
hours affecting all terminals. Confidence in exact timing is low,
but strong low level moisture will remain in play with a favorable
setup otherwise. There is a window of opportunity, albeit small
with some uncertainty, for some general elevated convection to take
place with weak lift after the 0900Z time frame from KMHK then
building east into the KTOP/KFOE terminals. The largest change
with this TAF period will come near the end with a frontal system
causing a shift in winds that will be gusty from the northwest but
with a trend suggesting improving CIGS/VIS. A small possibility of
a rain/snow mix will begin to show up near KMHK near the end of
the period late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230001
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Noon)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Many locations across the area have reached 60 degrees today, as
warm air streams northward across Kansas ahead of the southern
upper trof. Convection remains across Texas and Oklahoma, while
morning low clouds and drizzle have started to thin in afternoon
mixing.

Expect clouds and rain chances to return overnight, although
chances should be slight. By around sunrise, piece of the southern
wave lifts over the eastern part of the state and increases rain
chances. Even some elevated instability and a rumble of thunder is
possible especially east. Next cold front races into the north
central counties through the morning hours. Expect strong winds
and rain chances along with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

By mid day Sunday the shortwave associated with the main trough
swings over the plains. This advancing trough will drive a cold
front into the forecast area from the northwest, which looks to
arrive in north central KS around 15Z. Further south a low pressure
will form over northeast OK and lift northeastward into MO. Strong
cold air advection behind the front will usher in temperatures into
the low 40s and upper 30s. A decent layer of frontogenesis will
coincide with the large scale lift to produce a post frontal band of
precipitation. This band will move into north central KS around 18Z
and progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
The predominate precipitation type will be rain especially
initially. As colder air filters in the sounding becomes almost
fully sub freezing with the exception of the boundary layer. Some of
the lift will occur in the dendritic growth layer with a deep layer
of saturation in place increasing the chances for ice crystals in
the cloud. These ice crystals have a good chance of melting in the
1500 ft warm layer at the surface. With full saturation wet bulb
temperatures may only cool the air to around 3 C. Although, if the
frontogenesis band precipitation is intense enough then you could
potentially cool this warm layer due to melting causing a brief
change over to a wet snow. Especially if the better lift
concentrates in the snow growth layer. At the moment I only
mentioned a chance for a rain snow mix. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time given temperatures in the morning will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s, and QPF generally under a quarter of
an inch.

The other issue behind the front will be the strong northwest flow.
Expect surface winds will quickly increase with the frontal passage
given winds at the top of the mixing layer will be around 45 kts and
a decent pressure gradient moves through. It does not appear that
winds will reach advisory criteria, but can not rule out 35 mph
gusts. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the extended, which will
be characterized by a few shortwaves translating across the northern
US. The most notable wave passes well north of us on Wednesday
dragging a cold front through the area bringing only an outside
chance of light precipitation. The GFS is less impressive with this
wave and therefore the cold air is slightly delayed until Thurs.
Surface pressure from Canada looks to take over for the remaining
period as the pattern aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures will
generally be characterized by highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

This TAF period will remain challenging much like the previous
one. CIGS/VIS continue to hinder some ops at all terminals.
IFR/LIFR conditions are a strong possibility during the overnight
hours affecting all terminals. Confidence in exact timing is low,
but strong low level moisture will remain in play with a favorable
setup otherwise. There is a window of opportunity, albeit small
with some uncertainty, for some general elevated convection to take
place with weak lift after the 0900Z time frame from KMHK then
building east into the KTOP/KFOE terminals. The largest change
with this TAF period will come near the end with a frontal system
causing a shift in winds that will be gusty from the northwest but
with a trend suggesting improving CIGS/VIS. A small possibility of
a rain/snow mix will begin to show up near KMHK near the end of
the period late Sunday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Noon)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Many locations across the area have reached 60 degrees today, as
warm air streams northward across Kansas ahead of the southern
upper trof. Convection remains across Texas and Oklahoma, while
morning low clouds and drizzle have started to thin in afternoon
mixing.

Expect clouds and rain chances to return overnight, although
chances should be slight. By around sunrise, piece of the southern
wave lifts over the eastern part of the state and increases rain
chances. Even some elevated instability and a rumble of thunder is
possible especially east. Next cold front races into the north
central counties through the morning hours. Expect strong winds
and rain chances along with it.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

By mid day Sunday the shortwave associated with the main trough
swings over the plains. This advancing trough will drive a cold
front into the forecast area from the northwest, which looks to
arrive in north central KS around 15Z. Further south a low pressure
will form over northeast OK and lift northeastward into MO. Strong
cold air advection behind the front will usher in temperatures into
the low 40s and upper 30s. A decent layer of frontogenesis will
coincide with the large scale lift to produce a post frontal band of
precipitation. This band will move into north central KS around 18Z
and progress eastward through the afternoon and early evening hours.
The predominate precipitation type will be rain especially
initially. As colder air filters in the sounding becomes almost
fully sub freezing with the exception of the boundary layer. Some of
the lift will occur in the dendritic growth layer with a deep layer
of saturation in place increasing the chances for ice crystals in
the cloud. These ice crystals have a good chance of melting in the
1500 ft warm layer at the surface. With full saturation wet bulb
temperatures may only cool the air to around 3 C. Although, if the
frontogenesis band precipitation is intense enough then you could
potentially cool this warm layer due to melting causing a brief
change over to a wet snow. Especially if the better lift
concentrates in the snow growth layer. At the moment I only
mentioned a chance for a rain snow mix. Do not expect any
accumulations at this time given temperatures in the morning will be
in the upper 50s and low 60s, and QPF generally under a quarter of
an inch.

The other issue behind the front will be the strong northwest flow.
Expect surface winds will quickly increase with the frontal passage
given winds at the top of the mixing layer will be around 45 kts and
a decent pressure gradient moves through. It does not appear that
winds will reach advisory criteria, but can not rule out 35 mph
gusts. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the extended, which will
be characterized by a few shortwaves translating across the northern
US. The most notable wave passes well north of us on Wednesday
dragging a cold front through the area bringing only an outside
chance of light precipitation. The GFS is less impressive with this
wave and therefore the cold air is slightly delayed until Thurs.
Surface pressure from Canada looks to take over for the remaining
period as the pattern aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures will
generally be characterized by highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Details of forecast is tricky, but overall IFR cigs expected to
continue through this forecast period. Visibility improves during
the day but goes back down at night, and fog will be a possibility
to be monitored again. Then chance for showers or thunder works
northward and over TAF sites late in the period, as a strong
breezy front is on MHK doorstep by the end of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221744
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloud cover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Details of forecast is tricky, but overall IFR cigs expected to
continue through this forecast period. Visibility improves during
the day but goes back down at night, and fog will be a possibility
to be monitored again. Then chance for showers or thunder works
northward and over TAF sites late in the period, as a strong
breezy front is on MHK doorstep by the end of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221744
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloud cover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Details of forecast is tricky, but overall IFR cigs expected to
continue through this forecast period. Visibility improves during
the day but goes back down at night, and fog will be a possibility
to be monitored again. Then chance for showers or thunder works
northward and over TAF sites late in the period, as a strong
breezy front is on MHK doorstep by the end of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Pessimistic forecast throughout the entire TAF period.  Dense fog
throughout the area leaves sites in the IFR/LIFR range, with little
chance for improvement until late morning.  At 17Z, have MVFR
ceilings/visbys hanging on the entire day and into the late
evening.  Fog is likely tomorrow morning, therefore, have introduced
IFR conditions into the TAF beginning between 06-07Z, although it is
possible conditions will deteriorate to LIFR again tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Pessimistic forecast throughout the entire TAF period.  Dense fog
throughout the area leaves sites in the IFR/LIFR range, with little
chance for improvement until late morning.  At 17Z, have MVFR
ceilings/visbys hanging on the entire day and into the late
evening.  Fog is likely tomorrow morning, therefore, have introduced
IFR conditions into the TAF beginning between 06-07Z, although it is
possible conditions will deteriorate to LIFR again tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220950
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220950
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220950
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220950
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Early this morning an amplified upper level trough was located
across northern Mexico, NM and far west TX. This H5 trough will
northeast into northern TX tonight. While another H5 trough moves
east-southeast from northern CA into the central high plains by 12Z
MON.

Deeper moisture advection at the surface and 850mb will continue
across southern and eastern KS. The advection fog will continue
through the morning hours. Visibilities have improved as southerly
winds have been increasing across the CWA. There may be some patchy
dense fog across the central and western counties of the CWA. I may
keep the dense fog advisory going for the Flint Hills as
visibilities may be reduced to a few hundred feet through 800 AM.

The isentropic lift and WAA will keep a chance for drizzle and
perhaps a light rain shower through the day across portions of east
central KS. Due to the warm start this morning and despite cloud
cover, highs Monday should reach the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the H5 trough across northern CA moves into the central high
plains late tonight an 850mb and surface low will develop across
western OK and western KS. This will surface and 850mb winds to back
a bit more to the south causing deeper moisture to gradually expand
west across the CWA. The drizzle and light rain showers will expand
westward across the CWA. Fog may once again develop across the
northern and western counties as deeper moisture advects northwest
into a slightly cooler airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Models are now trending towards a stronger shortwave trough...now
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest...to swing southeastward
around the south side of the upper low over the northern Plains and
across the county warning area (cwa) on Sunday. This will likely
increase not only rain chances...but also QPF amounts. Timing
appears to be centered on the cwa around 18z...so will keep the pops
as a 12 hr block for now and let upcoming forecasts fine tune the
west to east progression of the pop trends. In summary...increased
pops across the area and ended precipitation over the eastern cwa a
little faster due to good model consistency with a stronger
subsidence signal with the passage of the stronger shortwave trough.
Will also extend thicker cloudcover longer across the cwa which will
limit highs behind the front to the upper 40s in the north central
counties with the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Once the forecast goes dry Sunday night after midnight...will keep
the cwa dry through the remainder of the forecast. The only
exception will be the far northeast corner near Hiawatha with the
passage of the next clipper which tries to clip that area with light
snow. Ether way...overall model trend is further northward with the
clipper and the resulting band of snow. Still...the timing of the
front is similar on Wednesday...so after highs in the 40s through
mid week...will lower highs into the 30s for Thanksgiving Day as the
center of the Canadian surface ridge builds southward over the cwa.
The ridge axis does translate eastward by Friday with highs back
into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Saturday FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke









000
FXUS63 KTOP 220542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 06z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
develop across portions of northeast and east central Kansas through
the overnight hours before diminishing some in coverage by Saturday
morning. Areas of stratus and fog will continue to spread northward
over the TAF sites overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR
conditions and even some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due
to 1/4sm visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are
expected to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR
cigs/vis will likely persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon
and evening hours on Saturday. There is the potential for cigs/vis
to lower once again Saturday evening with areas of fog possibly
developing as well, however did not include a mention of this in the
TAFs at this time due to uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CST Saturday FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 00z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
overspread the area through the evening and overnight hours before
diminishing in coverage by Saturday morning. Areas of stratus and
fog will spread northward over the TAF sites this evening and
overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR conditions and even
some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due to 1/4sm
visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are expected
to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR cigs/vis
may persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

For the 00z TAFs, areas of drizzle or light rain will continue to
overspread the area through the evening and overnight hours before
diminishing in coverage by Saturday morning. Areas of stratus and
fog will spread northward over the TAF sites this evening and
overnight with prolonged periods of LIFR and IFR conditions and even
some VLIFR conditions (especially near KMHK) due to 1/4sm
visibilities with areas of dense fog. These conditions are expected
to gradually improve by mid to late morning, however MVFR cigs/vis
may persist at the TAF sites through the afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ022-023-
035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR
KSZ022-023-035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR
KSZ022-023-035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR
KSZ022-023-035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR
KSZ022-023-035>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Current water vapor shows a weak shortwave moving over the forecast
area. This shortwave and weak isentropic lift is responsible for
drizzle and light rain moving through eastern KS at the moment. As
the shortwave continues to lift to the northeast there will be a
break in the more widespread precip. Warm advection over the cold
surface air in place this morning has caused an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints all morning. The models are forecasting
weak isentropic lift lasting most of the overnight hours, which may
generate either showers and or drizzle depending on the strength.
Cooler surface temperatures have caused quick saturation in southern
portions of the forecast leading to the development of fog behind
the advancing precip. Observations across south central KS and north
central OK have been showing dense fog in those areas all morning.
The upper 40 dew points in those regions are forecast to move into
northeast KS during the evening. With surface temperatures not
forecast to rise much overnight dense fog is possible across most of
the area with this moisture advection. Some of the fog may be dense
as evident in southern KS, although it is uncertain where this will
occur and how widespread it will be. Also, not sure how much diurnal
cooling will take place with stratus overhead. At this point fog is
most likely after sunset in southern counties, and northern counties
after midnight. Will have to let the evening shift evaluate the
latest surface and model trends to see if a advisory is needed. This
low level saturation appears to last until late morning hours.
Across the far southeast counties the visibilities are not forecast
to drop as much and there is a slight chance for shower activity.
The 850 mb winds will gradually veer tonight allowing for some
clearing of lower clouds in north central KS during the morning
hours. As the shortwave over NM lifts into the plains another push
of moisture works back into the area. There is also hints of
instability in the far southeast counties so can not rule out
isolated thunder within the general showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery was showing an impressive amount of
jet energy moving into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. How
this energy is dealt with as it moves into the central CONUS is
the medium range forecast problem today. For the past several
days, we have watched the models deal with this energy and a
downstream short wave moving into the Southern Plains. The current
12Z models all suggest the northern stream energy moves into the
central CONUS and deepens. Given the impressive look to the
offshore wave on water vapor, prefer the stronger looking GFS
concerning the deepening of the northern stream upper trough
moving into the central CONUS and it`s associated surface features.

Through Sunday morning, northeast Kansas should remain in
southerly low-level flow keeping low clouds, fog and occasional
light drizzle around. All the models produce some precipitation
over eastern Kansas, albeit relatively light, Saturday night into
Sunday as the southern stream wave lifts northeast to our east and
as the northern stream energy digs into the central CONUS.

A strong Pacific cold front will cross northeast Kansas on Sunday
and it should clear the low-level moisture out and end
precipitation chances. Cold advection and breezy conditions
prevail early next week. Monday still looks breezy with a deep
mixed layer with 25-35 knots of wind within the layer. Given the
source region of this airmass, temperatures will be cool, but not
as cold as the recent, unseasonably cold airmasses.

Another shortwave is expected to dive into the mean trough towards
the middle of next week. The airmass associated with the
post frontal high looks polar in nature and it should drop
temperatures well below normal again. The fast moving nature of
the wave, the location of the forcing and an overall lack of
moisture should result in mainly dry weather. Will have a dry
forecast after Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211753
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early this morning the upper air maps showed split mid and upper
level flow across the western US and plains states. A weak upper
level trough was embedded within the subtropical jet across the TX
PNHDL. A more amplified upper level trough was located across
southern CA.

Ahead of the H5 trough across the TX PNHDL, southerly 850mb winds
were advecting moisture and warmer temperatures northward across OK.
Forecast soundings across the CWA were quite dry in the low-levels
early this morning. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 20s across
much of the area. As the richer moisture begins to advect northward
this morning the isentropic lift across southeast KS on the 285
theta surface will increase. The resulting isentropic lift will
cause low stratus to form and spread northward across the CWA after
12Z. The dry low-levels of the atmosphere will prevent drizzle from
south of I-35 until after 15Z at the earliest. All the mesoscale
models are showing temperatures warming through the mid 30s by the
time any drizzle does form south of I-35 by 16Z. Temperatures across
the remainder of the CWA will begin to warm into the mid to upper
30s by 18Z. Most numerical models show drizzle and perhaps periods
of light rain expanding northward across east central and northeast
KS during the afternoon hours due to increasing isentropic lift and
ascent ahead of the H5 trough lifting east-northeast across northern
OK and KS during the afternoon hours. The slightly deeper moisture
will probably not expand into north central KS as 850mb will veer
through the day to the south-southwest. Therefore, the best rain
chances this afternoon will be across east central and northeast KS.

High temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 40s
across east central KS with lower 40s across the remainder of the
CWA.

Tonight the best rain chances will remain across east central KS as
850mb trajectories will continue to transport deeper moisture
northeast from western OK, across south central KS, then northeast
into east central KS. The WAA will keep temperatures nearly steady
in the mid to upper 40s across the southeast counties of the CWA.
Lows across north central KS will drop into the mid 30s. The more
amplified upper level trough across southern CA this morning will
dig east-southeast into far west TX by 12Z SAT.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Models consistent on the translation of strong shortwave trough from
the TX Big Bend area eastward into central TX thru the day on
Saturday before lifting negatively tilted into southern MO by midday
Sunday before phasing with the northern stream trough over the Great
Lakes region into Monday. As this occurs the sfc low will also lift
from OK into MO by Sunday then on into Lake Michigan Sunday night.
With the upper level forcing more in proximity to the front boundary
to the south...it will keep the heavier rainfall amounts south and
east of the county warning area through the weekend. Although
precipitation will be extensive at times...the limited depth of the
moisture fields and forcing most precip to very light rain or
drizzle. The one exception may be south and east of I 35 Saturday
afternoon and night when deeper moisture and some elevated
instability may briefly surge northeastward across this area for a
period of higher rainfall amounts. Still...rainfall totals across
the area through the weekend will generally range from less than a
tenth of an inch in the northwest half of the cwa to a half to
locally three quarters of an inch south and east of I 35.

Highs for Saturday still look on track to be in the middle to upper
50s...but cooler in the low to middle 50s with the surging cold
front on Sunday. Although there may be a brief window for a
rain/snow mix Sunday night...no accumulation is expected as the
drier air aloft and subsidence surges southeastward.

It should remain dry from Monday through Wednesday before a
northwest flow shortwave trough brings a chance for rain or snow
to the area Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Following highs
in the 30s and lower 40s Monday...highs should be in the 40s for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder air will then overspread the area by
Thanksgiving with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211753
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Early this morning the upper air maps showed split mid and upper
level flow across the western US and plains states. A weak upper
level trough was embedded within the subtropical jet across the TX
PNHDL. A more amplified upper level trough was located across
southern CA.

Ahead of the H5 trough across the TX PNHDL, southerly 850mb winds
were advecting moisture and warmer temperatures northward across OK.
Forecast soundings across the CWA were quite dry in the low-levels
early this morning. Temperatures were in the lower to mid 20s across
much of the area. As the richer moisture begins to advect northward
this morning the isentropic lift across southeast KS on the 285
theta surface will increase. The resulting isentropic lift will
cause low stratus to form and spread northward across the CWA after
12Z. The dry low-levels of the atmosphere will prevent drizzle from
south of I-35 until after 15Z at the earliest. All the mesoscale
models are showing temperatures warming through the mid 30s by the
time any drizzle does form south of I-35 by 16Z. Temperatures across
the remainder of the CWA will begin to warm into the mid to upper
30s by 18Z. Most numerical models show drizzle and perhaps periods
of light rain expanding northward across east central and northeast
KS during the afternoon hours due to increasing isentropic lift and
ascent ahead of the H5 trough lifting east-northeast across northern
OK and KS during the afternoon hours. The slightly deeper moisture
will probably not expand into north central KS as 850mb will veer
through the day to the south-southwest. Therefore, the best rain
chances this afternoon will be across east central and northeast KS.

High temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 40s
across east central KS with lower 40s across the remainder of the
CWA.

Tonight the best rain chances will remain across east central KS as
850mb trajectories will continue to transport deeper moisture
northeast from western OK, across south central KS, then northeast
into east central KS. The WAA will keep temperatures nearly steady
in the mid to upper 40s across the southeast counties of the CWA.
Lows across north central KS will drop into the mid 30s. The more
amplified upper level trough across southern CA this morning will
dig east-southeast into far west TX by 12Z SAT.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Models consistent on the translation of strong shortwave trough from
the TX Big Bend area eastward into central TX thru the day on
Saturday before lifting negatively tilted into southern MO by midday
Sunday before phasing with the northern stream trough over the Great
Lakes region into Monday. As this occurs the sfc low will also lift
from OK into MO by Sunday then on into Lake Michigan Sunday night.
With the upper level forcing more in proximity to the front boundary
to the south...it will keep the heavier rainfall amounts south and
east of the county warning area through the weekend. Although
precipitation will be extensive at times...the limited depth of the
moisture fields and forcing most precip to very light rain or
drizzle. The one exception may be south and east of I 35 Saturday
afternoon and night when deeper moisture and some elevated
instability may briefly surge northeastward across this area for a
period of higher rainfall amounts. Still...rainfall totals across
the area through the weekend will generally range from less than a
tenth of an inch in the northwest half of the cwa to a half to
locally three quarters of an inch south and east of I 35.

Highs for Saturday still look on track to be in the middle to upper
50s...but cooler in the low to middle 50s with the surging cold
front on Sunday. Although there may be a brief window for a
rain/snow mix Sunday night...no accumulation is expected as the
drier air aloft and subsidence surges southeastward.

It should remain dry from Monday through Wednesday before a
northwest flow shortwave trough brings a chance for rain or snow
to the area Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Following highs
in the 30s and lower 40s Monday...highs should be in the 40s for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder air will then overspread the area by
Thanksgiving with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR/IFR conditions dominate the entire period.  Current MVFR
conditions with drizzle are expected to hold on until 20Z when IFR
ceilings/MVFR visbys move northward into the area.  From here, dense
fog is expected this evening through the rest of the period.  With
this, light drizzle is still likely up to 06Z as there is persistent
lift present throughout the night.  Intruding dry air from the SW
should help to improve ceilings toward the end of the period,
however the confidence in exact timing of this improvement is low.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller








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