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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200502
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloud cover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Visibility is expected to decrease through 12Z although much better
than previous nights as persistent SSW winds and mid clouds should
keep vis above 3SM. FOE may have the best chance for brief IFR
vis between 09Z and 12Z, while MHK seems likely to remain VFR and
perhaps approach MVFR by 12Z. Winds may gust a bit between 14Z and
16Z but should become steady in the 11-15 kt range by late
morning. A front will approach TAF sites by around 22Z with
scattered thunderstorms potentially developing. Do not expect
widespread coverage, but all TAF sites will see a chance of TS
mainly between 22Z and 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200502
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloud cover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Visibility is expected to decrease through 12Z although much better
than previous nights as persistent SSW winds and mid clouds should
keep vis above 3SM. FOE may have the best chance for brief IFR
vis between 09Z and 12Z, while MHK seems likely to remain VFR and
perhaps approach MVFR by 12Z. Winds may gust a bit between 14Z and
16Z but should become steady in the 11-15 kt range by late
morning. A front will approach TAF sites by around 22Z with
scattered thunderstorms potentially developing. Do not expect
widespread coverage, but all TAF sites will see a chance of TS
mainly between 22Z and 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192352
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloudcover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The major operational impacts during this TAF period are related
to the CIGS and VIS. With no major airmass change over the next
12-18 hrs expected, current forecast is concerned with the lower
VIS and CIGS working into terminals by early morning before
lifting by mid morning time frame. Currently, MVFR to IFR
conditions is not restricting planning ops but there is some
potential that may work its way back into the TAF but right now
confidence is on the lower end that actual conditions will degrade
to the MVFR/IFR level. As we progress through the TAF period,
there are some small chances for general showers and
thunderstorms to work into the area making it to the I-70
corridor mainly after 18Z. Again, confidence is low related to this
activity developing as a cold front pushes into the area. Timing
will be a key factor as we approach the last 6 hrs of the TAF
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192352
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloudcover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The major operational impacts during this TAF period are related
to the CIGS and VIS. With no major airmass change over the next
12-18 hrs expected, current forecast is concerned with the lower
VIS and CIGS working into terminals by early morning before
lifting by mid morning time frame. Currently, MVFR to IFR
conditions is not restricting planning ops but there is some
potential that may work its way back into the TAF but right now
confidence is on the lower end that actual conditions will degrade
to the MVFR/IFR level. As we progress through the TAF period,
there are some small chances for general showers and
thunderstorms to work into the area making it to the I-70
corridor mainly after 18Z. Again, confidence is low related to this
activity developing as a cold front pushes into the area. Timing
will be a key factor as we approach the last 6 hrs of the TAF
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 192050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloudcover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Current IFR/LIFR ceilings at TOP/FOE should clear out by 19Z.  VFR
conditions are expected throughout the rest of today and this
evening.  Guidance suggests the possibility for another round of
lower visibilities/ceilings between 11Z and 15Z at TOP and FOE,
which has been introduced into this TAF package.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Temperatures rebounded back into the 80s across much of the cwa this
afternoon as low clouds dissipated in the east. Deepening low
pressure trough in the Western High Plains has increased south to
southwest winds this afternoon. Dew points remain in the mid to
upper 60s as well.

For tonight a cold front across the Northern Plains this afternoon
will move southeast and into northern Kansas Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough moves southeast out of Canada and into the Northern
Plains. Could see some stratus reform across east central Kansas
later tonight. Lows will be mild with readings mainly in the upper
60s.

Soundings show moderate instability during the afternoon
hours with marginal shear of 20 to 30 kts. NAM decreases the shear
into the evening hours. Could see isolated thunderstorms along the
slow moving boundary in the afternoon hours. The NAM generates the
least amount of QPF while the GFS and the ECMWF are more broad
brushed. Convergence along the boundary is weak as winds are veered
ahead of the front. Could also see some morning stratus once again
especially across east central Kansas. Soundings show mixing down
from 800 mb in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s with
the warmer readings near central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Weak front will continue to push slowly southward Saturday
night...exiting the far southern portions of the cwa around
midnight. Therefore..expect the better chances for thunderstorms to
occur during the early evening before boundary layer cooling
dominates and instability decreases along and to the south of I 70.
Any post frontal showers/thunderstorms should also translate or
diminish southward after midnight then come to an end by late in the
night. This also applies to cloudcover across the county warning area
as clear skies north to south and the coolest lows will occur across
the far northern counties in the 50s the the middle 60s across the
east central. With abundant sunshine...highs Sunday should top out
in the upper 70s to around 80.

On Monday...the cwa will remain beneath upper level ridging out
ahead of the next upper trough...so although it will be dry and
mostly sunny...clouds will gradually increase in the north central
by late afternoon. Near seasonal in the 70s and east to southeast
breezes of 5 to 15 mph can be expected.

As the western trough lifts east and northeastward...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from Monday night into Tuesday night. Precipitation
will then linger across the area...mainly the northwest 1/2...into
Thursday before the upper trough lifts off to the north of the
area. The clouds and precip chances will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday to the low to middle 70s...then near 80 on Thursday and
Friday with more sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Current IFR/LIFR ceilings at TOP/FOE should clear out by 19Z.  VFR
conditions are expected throughout the rest of today and this
evening.  Guidance suggests the possibility for another round of
lower visibilities/ceilings between 11Z and 15Z at TOP and FOE,
which has been introduced into this TAF package.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Current IFR/LIFR ceilings at TOP/FOE should clear out by 19Z.  VFR
conditions are expected throughout the rest of today and this
evening.  Guidance suggests the possibility for another round of
lower visibilities/ceilings between 11Z and 15Z at TOP and FOE,
which has been introduced into this TAF package.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 191737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Current IFR/LIFR ceilings at TOP/FOE should clear out by 19Z.  VFR
conditions are expected throughout the rest of today and this
evening.  Guidance suggests the possibility for another round of
lower visibilities/ceilings between 11Z and 15Z at TOP and FOE,
which has been introduced into this TAF package.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

There is good agreement that the IFR stratus will move east and
scatter out later this morning. MHK is on the western edge of the
stratus deck and may stay VFR, but did include a tempo in case
the clouds build into the site. At TOP/FOE there may be brief
periods of LIFR ceilings, although the visibilities may not be
impacted that much. Winds will pick up out of the south and
gradually shift to the southwest late in the period. There could
be occasional gusts up to 20 kt especially at MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

There is good agreement that the IFR stratus will move east and
scatter out later this morning. MHK is on the western edge of the
stratus deck and may stay VFR, but did include a tempo in case
the clouds build into the site. At TOP/FOE there may be brief
periods of LIFR ceilings, although the visibilities may not be
impacted that much. Winds will pick up out of the south and
gradually shift to the southwest late in the period. There could
be occasional gusts up to 20 kt especially at MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, a MVFR stratus deck was shifting westward across
the region with clearing skies noted across far eastern Kansas.
These clearing conditions were resulting in areas of patchy fog
developing, with model guidance suggesting that more widespread
coverage of this fog is expected as the stratus deck continues to
clear out of the region. Could see some areas of dense fog possible
across far eastern Kansas, with KTOP/KFOE having the best chances
for visibilities dropping down to around 1 mile for a few hours
before quickly lifting by mid morning.  Winds will veer from east to
south through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during
the afternoon hours before diminishing some Friday evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 190822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Upper level ridge is gradually building over the plains, which has
allowed the isentropic lift to become more focused over southeast NE
later this morning. Therefore the area remains dry through tonight.
The lee side trough has deepened through the course of the day as
several shortwaves track over the northern plains. This has
increased the surface pressure gradient in central KS limiting the
fog development there. In far eastern KS the winds are lighter and
skies were clear for most of the evening keeping the low level
inversion in place as well as the moisture. Also, a high pressure
that extended into the mid MS valley is currently retreating
allowing the return flow to become better established. Dew points
will be on the rise through out the day ahead of next system to
arrive tomorrow. Latest satellite is showing low stratus developing
over eastern KS and western MO. Most of the guidance agrees with
this trend and keeps the stratus socked in until the afternoon. As
the dew points increase and inversion holds strong fog is also a
possibility, which may be dense in some locations. Expect that the
fog will lift sometime during the late morning hours, and seems less
likely across the western half on the forecast area. Western areas
will see mostly clear skies today and with an increase in mid level
temps highs reach the upper 80s. Further east where the clouds hold
on longer into the day temperatures will be slow to warm and
slightly cooler. Expect that once the clouds scatter out high
temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Southerly winds will be on
the increase today with gusts up to 25 mph across north central KS.
Clouds will also increase from west to east later tonight as the
front approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Models generally agree in bringing the next front through the
forecast area on Saturday afternoon and moving into southern
Kansas Saturday evening. Considering dewpoints are forecast in the
upper 60s near 70 and high temperatures around 85, will make for a
muggy day before the front passes, with it feeling more like near
90. Also with later day timing comes better heating and
instability, with CAPE near 2000j/kg over the area as the front
moves in. Well mixed boundary layer makes for a wind threat with
stronger storms, and steeper lapse rates aloft make for a hail
threat as well. Shear remains generally around 25-30kts and would
be enough to produce a few strong storms as the front passes. As
high pressure still moving in overnight, lows in the lower 60s
expected most areas. Sunday brings cooler dry conditions with 70s
far northeast to lower 80s in the southwest counties. Could see
fog chances return Sunday night as winds lighten and skies clear.
Dry forecast continues for much of the day Monday with highs in
the 70s.

Next upper trof is on approach for Monday night and into the
middle, and latest model runs showing a little more consistency in
timing. Tuesday brings the upper trof over the northern and Central
Plains, lifting it slowly toward the Great Lakes through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances continue through this time, with
late Tuesday early Wednesday bringing better chances at this time.
Upper ridge over the Ohio valley influenced by a tropical wave
moving into the southeastern states, and how this impacts the
ridge will result in timing influences for the trof over our area.
Temperatures remain in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, a MVFR stratus deck was shifting westward across
the region with clearing skies noted across far eastern Kansas.
These clearing conditions were resulting in areas of patchy fog
developing, with model guidance suggesting that more widespread
coverage of this fog is expected as the stratus deck continues to
clear out of the region. Could see some areas of dense fog possible
across far eastern Kansas, with KTOP/KFOE having the best chances
for visibilities dropping down to around 1 mile for a few hours
before quickly lifting by mid morning.  Winds will veer from east to
south through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during
the afternoon hours before diminishing some Friday evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190507
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, a MVFR stratus deck was shifting westward across
the region with clearing skies noted across far eastern Kansas.
These clearing conditions were resulting in areas of patchy fog
developing, with model guidance suggesting that more widespread
coverage of this fog is expected as the stratus deck continues to
clear out of the region. Could see some areas of dense fog possible
across far eastern Kansas, with KTOP/KFOE having the best chances
for visibilities dropping down to around 1 mile for a few hours
before quickly lifting by mid morning.  Winds will veer from east to
south through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during
the afternoon hours before diminishing some Friday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190507
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, a MVFR stratus deck was shifting westward across
the region with clearing skies noted across far eastern Kansas.
These clearing conditions were resulting in areas of patchy fog
developing, with model guidance suggesting that more widespread
coverage of this fog is expected as the stratus deck continues to
clear out of the region. Could see some areas of dense fog possible
across far eastern Kansas, with KTOP/KFOE having the best chances
for visibilities dropping down to around 1 mile for a few hours
before quickly lifting by mid morning.  Winds will veer from east to
south through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during
the afternoon hours before diminishing some Friday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182347
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the 00z TAFs, the MVFR stratus deck may hang around over the
KTOP/KFOE sites before gradually scattering out during the evening
hours. There is the potential for areas of fog to develop once again
overnight into Friday morning. The best potential for this fog
development looks to be near the KTOP/KFOE sites in which
visibilities may drop down to around one mile at times before
quickly lifting by mid morning. Winds will veer from east to south
through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182347
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

For the 00z TAFs, the MVFR stratus deck may hang around over the
KTOP/KFOE sites before gradually scattering out during the evening
hours. There is the potential for areas of fog to develop once again
overnight into Friday morning. The best potential for this fog
development looks to be near the KTOP/KFOE sites in which
visibilities may drop down to around one mile at times before
quickly lifting by mid morning. Winds will veer from east to south
through the period with some gusts of 15-20kts possible during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR cigs and MVFR to continue through the majority of the forecast
period. Some improvement to VFR is expected at MHK with MVFR at
TOP and FOE after 20Z. Forecast soundings and model time sections
suggest IFR and MVFR Cigs reforming after 06Z with MVFR vsbys.
CIGS improve back to MVFR after 16Z at TOP and FOE with MHK
becoming VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






000
FXUS63 KTOP 182041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Elevated thunderstorms that persisted across the southwest part of
the CWA into early afternoon before dissipating or moving south into
south central Kansas. Low stratus was breaking up late this
afternoon while still holding firm in the northeast CWA. Baroclinic
zone to the southwest of the CWA begins to slowly move northeast
tonight. Isentropic lift on the 310K surface over the baroclinic
zone at 850 mb may lead to some additional elevated thunderstorms
tonight shortly after midnight in the far eastern counties. An east
to southeast surface flow will continue to maintain dew points in
the low to mid 60s tonight. Forecast soundings show saturation in
the low levels will lead to some patchy to areas of fog once again
as well as formation of low clouds again. Lows tonight will cool
into the low to mid 60s.

Friday clouds should scour out in the morning hours with mostly
sunny skies across the area for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show that we should mix down from around 850 mb yielding
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the warmest readings in
north central Kansas. South winds will increase into the 10 to
20 mph range by afternoon with some higher gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

The forecast for the weekend periods continues to be focused on
cold front and old tropical remnants making their way into the
Plains. Impacts of the latter on the local area continue to look
minimal, with the upper trough helping keeping it to the south.
The airmass ahead of the front continues to show good instability
but forcing for ascent continues to look rather meager with the
upper trough still well north and only modest cold air advection
in the afternoon and overnight hours. At this point looking like
scattered convection is a good bet in the afternoon and evening.
Could see a few briefly severe storms with initial updrafts, but
weak and fairly unidirectional wind profiles should keep organized
and widespread convection largely in check. Sunday should bring
clearing conditions with any convection remaining in the south
ending in the morning as dry/cold air advection increases. Have
continued to trend highs up with early day insolation Saturday and
the delayed cold air advection into Sunday.

Upper trough off the west coast makes steady east to northeast
progress into the Plains into the middle of the week. Deeper
moisture should be able to return with the weekend front holding up
over the southern High Plains for isolated to scattered type
convection once again for much of the remainder of the forecast
under this slow-moving upper trough. Low levels should be slow to
modify with highs mainly in the 70s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR cigs and MVFR to continue through the majority of the forecast
period. Some improvement to VFR is expected at MHK with MVFR at
TOP and FOE after 20Z. Forecast soundings and model time sections
suggest IFR and MVFR Cigs reforming after 06Z with MVFR vsbys.
CIGS improve back to MVFR after 16Z at TOP and FOE with MHK
becoming VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181759
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A complex weather scenario has taken place this morning ranging from
severe hail to very dense fog. The elevated thunderstorms have
developed along a mid level baroclinic zone/moisture gradient across
the southwest portions of the forecast area. Isentropic lift and
possibly a weak shortwave has been the driving force behind this
convection. Latest radar trends as well as high res models have
suggested the complex of thunderstorms will continue to drift
southeastward this morning. The NAM shows that isentropic lift will
persist through late morning over southern portions of the forecast
area. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorm are still
possible therefore have kept slight chances in those areas through
the morning hours. Instability should decrease with time but can not
completely rule out a few strong storms. It appears most of the
dense fog has improved as mid level clouds over spread the area.
This widespread fog is forecast to mix out later morning. Lingering
low level moisture trapped within the inversion in the form of low
stratus in Shawnee, Jackson, Jefferson, and Douglas counties will
also continue through late morning. Mid level clouds last most of
the day with highs in the 70s. There is another slight chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms later tonight across far eastern
KS although do not expect any severe weather with these storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge will move east across
the plains. Expect mostly sunny skies on Friday with increasing
clouds Friday night. Highs on Friday will reach the mid to upper 80s.

The latest run of all the numerical models are now showing the
remnants of Odile remaining south of the state of KS across the TX
PNHDL and into OK.

Saturday and Saturday night, an upper level trough will amplify as
it moves east across the northern and central plains on Saturday. A
cold front will push through the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening.
Deeper gulf moisture will be in place as the front pushes southward
across the CWA Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as surface convergence
increases ahead of the front and ascent increases ahead of the H5
trough. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will eventually push
south of the CWA as a surface ridge of high pressure builds
southward on the back side of the departing H5 trough. It no longer
looks as if there will be widespread heavy rainfall Saturday or
Saturday night. Though, some of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening may produce localize brief heavy rainfall.

Sunday, There may be a few morning showers south of I-35 but skies
should clear from northwest to southeast across the CWA. Highs
Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Monday through Tuesday, The center of a surface ridge of high
pressure will move southward across eastern KS. Highs will continue
to cool into the mid 70s.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday, The broad surface ridge of high
pressure will shift east into the OH river valley. Southerly low
level winds will allow for deeper moisture to be advected northward
across the central plains. The resulting WAA/isentropic lift may
cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The cloud cover and rain chances may
keep Wednesday cooler, with highs only reaching the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

IFR cigs and MVFR to continue through the majority of the forecast
period. Some improvement to VFR is expected at MHK with MVFR at
TOP and FOE after 20Z. Forecast soundings and model time sections
suggest IFR and MVFR Cigs reforming after 06Z with MVFR vsbys.
CIGS improve back to MVFR after 16Z at TOP and FOE with MHK
becoming VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 181203
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A complex weather scenario has taken place this morning ranging from
severe hail to very dense fog. The elevated thunderstorms have
developed along a mid level baroclinic zone/moisture gradient across
the southwest portions of the forecast area. Isentropic lift and
possibly a weak shortwave has been the driving force behind this
convection. Latest radar trends as well as high res models have
suggested the complex of thunderstorms will continue to drift
southeastward this morning. The NAM shows that isentropic lift will
persist through late morning over southern portions of the forecast
area. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorm are still
possible therefore have kept slight chances in those areas through
the morning hours. Instability should decrease with time but can not
completely rule out a few strong storms. It appears most of the
dense fog has improved as mid level clouds over spread the area.
This widespread fog is forecast to mix out later morning. Lingering
low level moisture trapped within the inversion in the form of low
stratus in Shawnee, Jackson, Jefferson, and Douglas counties will
also continue through late morning. Mid level clouds last most of
the day with highs in the 70s. There is another slight chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms later tonight across far eastern
KS although do not expect any severe weather with these storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge will move east across
the plains. Expect mostly sunny skies on Friday with increasing
clouds Friday night. Highs on Friday will reach the mid to upper 80s.

The latest run of all the numerical models are now showing the
remnants of Odile remaining south of the state of KS across the TX
PNHDL and into OK.

Saturday and Saturday night, an upper level trough will amplify as
it moves east across the northern and central plains on Saturday. A
cold front will push through the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening.
Deeper gulf moisture will be in place as the front pushes southward
across the CWA Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as surface convergence
increases ahead of the front and ascent increases ahead of the H5
trough. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will eventually push
south of the CWA as a surface ridge of high pressure builds
southward on the back side of the departing H5 trough. It no longer
looks as if there will be widespread heavy rainfall Saturday or
Saturday night. Though, some of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening may produce localize brief heavy rainfall.

Sunday, There may be a few morning showers south of I-35 but skies
should clear from northwest to southeast across the CWA. Highs
Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Monday through Tuesday, The center of a surface ridge of high
pressure will move southward across eastern KS. Highs will continue
to cool into the mid 70s.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday, The broad surface ridge of high
pressure will shift east into the OH river valley. Southerly low
level winds will allow for deeper moisture to be advected northward
across the central plains. The resulting WAA/isentropic lift may
cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The cloud cover and rain chances may
keep Wednesday cooler, with highs only reaching the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Latest model guidance is suggesting that IFR ceilings could linger
through the late morning hours. Although the 12Z sounding at TOP shows
that the stratus deck is very thin, and the start of daytime
mixing should clear things out fairly easily. The low level
moisture is forecast to remain in the area, and with not much
change in the overall pattern would expect partly clear skies
during the evening hours will lead to IFR conditions again. Timing
may need to be adjusted but as of now IFR conditions appear to
develop around midnight or shortly after.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 180952
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
452 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A complex weather scenario has taken place this morning ranging from
severe hail to very dense fog. The elevated thunderstorms have
developed along a mid level baroclinic zone/moisture gradient across
the southwest portions of the forecast area. Isentropic lift and
possibly a weak shortwave has been the driving force behind this
convection. Latest radar trends as well as high res models have
suggested the complex of thunderstorms will continue to drift
southeastward this morning. The NAM shows that isentropic lift will
persist through late morning over southern portions of the forecast
area. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorm are still
possible therefore have kept slight chances in those areas through
the morning hours. Instability should decrease with time but can not
completely rule out a few strong storms. It appears most of the
dense fog has improved as mid level clouds over spread the area.
This widespread fog is forecast to mix out later morning. Lingering
low level moisture trapped within the inversion in the form of low
stratus in Shawnee, Jackson, Jefferson, and Douglas counties will
also continue through late morning. Mid level clouds last most of
the day with highs in the 70s. There is another slight chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms later tonight across far eastern
KS although do not expect any severe weather with these storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Friday and Friday night, An upper level ridge will move east across
the plains. Expect mostly sunny skies on Friday with increasing
clouds Friday night. Highs on Friday will reach the mid to upper 80s.

The latest run of all the numerical models are now showing the
remnants of Odile remaining south of the state of KS across the TX
PNHDL and into OK.

Saturday and Saturday night, an upper level trough will amplify as
it moves east across the northern and central plains on Saturday. A
cold front will push through the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening.
Deeper gulf moisture will be in place as the front pushes southward
across the CWA Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as surface convergence
increases ahead of the front and ascent increases ahead of the H5
trough. The scattered showers and thunderstorms will eventually push
south of the CWA as a surface ridge of high pressure builds
southward on the back side of the departing H5 trough. It no longer
looks as if there will be widespread heavy rainfall Saturday or
Saturday night. Though, some of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
and evening may produce localize brief heavy rainfall.

Sunday, There may be a few morning showers south of I-35 but skies
should clear from northwest to southeast across the CWA. Highs
Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

Monday through Tuesday, The center of a surface ridge of high
pressure will move southward across eastern KS. Highs will continue
to cool into the mid 70s.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday, The broad surface ridge of high
pressure will shift east into the OH river valley. Southerly low
level winds will allow for deeper moisture to be advected northward
across the central plains. The resulting WAA/isentropic lift may
cause some showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The cloud cover and rain chances may
keep Wednesday cooler, with highs only reaching the lower to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog has quickly developed at TOP/FOE, with more gradual vis
restrictions building into MHK. Expect the LIFR vis to be dominant
through 14Z at TOP/FOE, although it may fluctuate between 06Z and
09Z as mid clouds move overhead. These clouds should clear out
though with the fog persisting. MHK will be more heavily
influenced by the mid cloud cover, and do not expect such low vis
at MHK for this reason...although a period of IFR seems likely
around sunrise. Vis will improve after 14Z but expect broken
ceilings to remain through much of the morning, with cigs rising
from IFR to MVFR before scattering out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 180506
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog has quickly developed at TOP/FOE, with more gradual vis
restrictions building into MHK. Expect the LIFR vis to be dominant
through 14Z at TOP/FOE, although it may fluctuate between 06Z and
09Z as mid clouds move overhead. These clouds should clear out
though with the fog persisting. MHK will be more heavily
influenced by the mid cloud cover, and do not expect such low vis
at MHK for this reason...although a period of IFR seems likely
around sunrise. Vis will improve after 14Z but expect broken
ceilings to remain through much of the morning, with cigs rising
from IFR to MVFR before scattering out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 180355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to near term and aviation forecast discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updating previous aviation discussion to include a greater chance
for reduced visibility tonight at all sites, but particularly at
TOP/FOE. Vis has already been decreasing, especially on the
northern edge of low stratus cloud deck. Confidence in timing and
eventually magnitude of vis reduction is still in question, but
periods of fog less than 1SM seems plausible by 12Z. Then after
sunrise should see the fog moisture mix into a broken stratus
deck with a gradual increase in cig heights, scattering out by
late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 180355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to near term and aviation forecast discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updating previous aviation discussion to include a greater chance
for reduced visibility tonight at all sites, but particularly at
TOP/FOE. Vis has already been decreasing, especially on the
northern edge of low stratus cloud deck. Confidence in timing and
eventually magnitude of vis reduction is still in question, but
periods of fog less than 1SM seems plausible by 12Z. Then after
sunrise should see the fog moisture mix into a broken stratus
deck with a gradual increase in cig heights, scattering out by
late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 172349
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Clouds have broken up or dissolved at TOP and FOE with all sites
beginning the period VFR. NAM shows drier air advecting into
eastern Kansas in the 925mb to 700mb layer this evening. Latest
TOP sounding shows very dry air above 875 mb. Soundings suggest
that IFR cigs may reform in the TOP and FOE terminals after 08Z.
Left low clouds scattered for now and will monitor trends to
inclusion of a IFR or MVFR cig. Lower boundary layer remain mixed
and kept vsbys toward sunrise MVFR. VFR conditions expected after
15Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 172046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initially based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 172046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initially based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z time frame. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initally based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z time frame. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initally based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 171130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Borderline IFR stratus has advected into the area from south
central KS in response to a warm front lifting northward. The
visibilities are borderline MVFR although do not expect them to
drop any further. The main challenge with this issuance is timing
on when the stratus and fog will lift. There is a slight chance
this stratus deck could linger into the afternoon hours. After
sunset scattered thunderstorms and fog could develop again but too
much uncertainty to add any details.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Borderline IFR stratus has advected into the area from south
central KS in response to a warm front lifting northward. The
visibilities are borderline MVFR although do not expect them to
drop any further. The main challenge with this issuance is timing
on when the stratus and fog will lift. There is a slight chance
this stratus deck could linger into the afternoon hours. After
sunset scattered thunderstorms and fog could develop again but too
much uncertainty to add any details.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







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