000
FXUS63 KTOP 182340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AT MID AFTERNOON WELL DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN KS INTO
NORTHWEST OK...WITH TOWERING CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT AHEAD OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT FCST REFLECTS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A GRADUAL AREAL DECREASE OF BROKEN LINE/QLCS THAT ENTERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY MIDNIGHT THEN FURTHER
WEAKENING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE ENCOUNTERED. ONE
OFFSETTING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH AN INCREASING BUT SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST CWA THIS EVENING THEN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW END POTENTIAL FOR EVENING
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK MCV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LLVL JET LATER
ON. MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO
ONE INCH AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.

A MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL
SWING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AFTER A TEMPORARY
BREAK/WEAKENING TREND OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP OVER THE CWA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAKE WAY FOR CAPE VALUES
COMMONLY IN THE RANGE OF 2500-3500 J/KG PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS AFTER 2 PM...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REFLECTED THIS
SCENARIO IN THE GRIDS WITH LIKELY POPS AND THE MENTION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OCCUR. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STILL
EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MIDDLE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

EXPECT ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH STORMS
BECOMING LINEAR MOVING EAST.

MONDAY STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW AND LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY BUT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AND TIMING IS LOW DUE TO SEVERAL
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IDEA OF SOME ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. THINK VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEN
STORM STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. TAFS ARE A BEST GUESS AT TIMING WITH ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY
AS THINGS UNFOLD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 182044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AT MID AFTERNOON WELL DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN KS INTO
NORTHWEST OK...WITH TOWERING CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT AHEAD OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT FCST REFLECTS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A GRADUAL AREAL DECREASE OF BROKEN LINE/QLCS THAT ENTERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY MIDNIGHT THEN FURTHER
WEAKENING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AND LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ARE ENCOUNTERED. ONE
OFFSETTING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH AN INCREASING BUT SLOWLY VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL FAVOR THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST CWA THIS EVENING THEN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW END POTENTIAL FOR EVENING
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK MCV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LLVL JET LATER
ON. MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO
ONE INCH AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE.


A MORE WIDESPREAD AND MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL
SWING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AFTER A TEMPORARY
BREAK/WEAKENING TREND OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THERE REMAINS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
OCCUR AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP OVER THE CWA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAKE WAY FOR CAPE VALUES
COMMONLY IN THE RANGE OF 2500-3500 J/KG PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS AFTER 2 PM...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REFLECTED THIS
SCENARIO IN THE GRIDS WITH LIKELY POPS AND THE MENTION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OCCUR. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STILL
EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MIDDLE 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

EXPECT ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH STORMS
BECOMING LINEAR MOVING EAST.

MONDAY STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE BOUNDARY IN OR NEAR EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW AND LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY BUT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
GRADUAL SFC HEATING. EXPECT VFR STRATOCU THEN REMAINDER OF THE
FCST WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UNTIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON TIMING OF TRACK/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP AS VCNTY FOR NOW IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE LULL 12-18Z
SUN BEFORE MORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN AFT 18Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS RATHER EVIDENT ON THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT STRATUS LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRATUS TO
MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...BUT STORMS ARE EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY TO FORM DUE TO
THE VERY WARM 700-800 MB TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ONGOING DUE TO THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...AS WELL AS MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB. AS A RESULT THE
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

FURTHER TO THE WEST A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY LINE WILL FORM IN SW/SC
KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THEIR STRONGEST FORM...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS FORMING AN
OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WOULD SLIDE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP
SOLIDLY IN PLACE ANY STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS WILL HAVE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS CONVECTION TO LEAK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY...SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOWING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL AND SW KANSAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE CAP ON ITS OWN
ENOUGH FOR LASTING OVERNIGHT STORMS. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH JUST
ABOUT ALL COMPUTER DEPICTIONS LIFT PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE
CAP ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT STORMS NORTH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE STILL SHAPING UP TO BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION. BY 18Z THE
UPPER TROF IS APPROACHING EASTERN KS WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT...SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO 2500-3500J/KG...WITH THE NAM AS HIGH AS 4500 OUT
WEST OF MANHATTAN. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RISES FROM 35KTS TO NEAR 50KTS
AROUND 0Z IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 35KTS
FROM 0-1KM. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE 9C OR GREATER FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SOUNDING...WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING PERPENDICULAR ACROSS
THE SURFACE TROF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WIND PROFILE...INITIAL THINKING
IS THAT LARGE HAIL...BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS A POSSIBILITY
WHERE STORMS CAN FORM LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR IN
THE COLUMN...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP WIND THREAT IN MIND FROM
NOT ONLY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF
STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN PUT IN A MODERATE DAY 2
RISK FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO
HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON TIMING AND ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE GREATER THREAT IN AREAS EAST OF
ABILENE. 67

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EC WANTS TO MOVE THE SECONDARY MAIN LOW OVER THE
AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY TRIGGER YET ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SC PARTS OF THE STATE.
KEPT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SE FOR POSSIBLY BOUNDARY HANGING UP
OVER THAT AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A BRIEF
RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 67

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MVFR STRATUS DECK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
GRADUAL SFC HEATING. EXPECT VFR STRATOCU THEN REMAINDER OF THE
FCST WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS UNTIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON TIMING OF TRACK/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP AS VCNTY FOR NOW IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE LULL 12-18Z
SUN BEFORE MORE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN AFT 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...63

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS RATHER EVIDENT ON THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT STRATUS LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRATUS TO
MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...BUT STORMS ARE EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY TO FORM DUE TO
THE VERY WARM 700-800 MB TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ONGOING DUE TO THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...AS WELL AS MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB. AS A RESULT THE
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

FURTHER TO THE WEST A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY LINE WILL FORM IN SW/SC
KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THEIR STRONGEST FORM...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS FORMING AN
OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WOULD SLIDE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP
SOLIDLY IN PLACE ANY STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS WILL HAVE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS CONVECTION TO LEAK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY...SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOWING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL AND SW KANSAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE CAP ON ITS OWN
ENOUGH FOR LASTING OVERNIGHT STORMS. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH JUST
ABOUT ALL COMPUTER DEPICTIONS LIFT PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE
CAP ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT STORMS NORTH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE STILL SHAPING UP TO BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION. BY 18Z THE
UPPER TROF IS APPROACHING EASTERN KS WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT...SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO 2500-3500J/KG...WITH THE NAM AS HIGH AS 4500 OUT
WEST OF MANHATTAN. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RISES FROM 35KTS TO NEAR 50KTS
AROUND 0Z IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 35KTS
FROM 0-1KM. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE 9C OR GREATER FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SOUNDING...WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING PERPENDICULAR ACROSS
THE SURFACE TROF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WIND PROFILE...INITIAL THINKING
IS THAT LARGE HAIL...BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS A POSSIBILITY
WHERE STORMS CAN FORM LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR IN
THE COLUMN...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP WIND THREAT IN MIND FROM
NOT ONLY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF
STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN PUT IN A MODERATE DAY 2
RISK FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO
HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON TIMING AND ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE GREATER THREAT IN AREAS EAST OF
ABILENE. 67

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EC WANTS TO MOVE THE SECONDARY MAIN LOW OVER THE
AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY TRIGGER YET ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL DN SC PARTS OF THE STATE. KEPT
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SE FOR POSSIBLY BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THAT AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A BRIEF
RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 67

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

INCONSISTENT STRATUS DECK WILL AFFECT AVIATION SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. EXPECT THAT
STRATUS TO GIVE WAY TO A CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 3500 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS COULD WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARD
THE TERMINALS...BUT STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE
T-STORMS FROM MAKING IT TO KTOP/KFOE...HOWEVER KMHK MAY SEE A
STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...LEIGHTON

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180854
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS RATHER EVIDENT ON THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT STRATUS LAYER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRATUS TO
MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
AND STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO FORM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...BUT STORMS ARE EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY TO FORM DUE TO
THE VERY WARM 700-800 MB TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ONGOING DUE TO THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...AS WELL AS MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB. AS A RESULT THE
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

FURTHER TO THE WEST A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY LINE WILL FORM IN SW/SC
KANSAS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THEIR STRONGEST FORM...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS FORMING AN
OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WOULD SLIDE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP
SOLIDLY IN PLACE ANY STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS WILL HAVE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE TO OVERCOME ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS CONVECTION TO LEAK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY...SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOWING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL AND SW KANSAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AM NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE CAP ON ITS OWN
ENOUGH FOR LASTING OVERNIGHT STORMS. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT
ON THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH JUST
ABOUT ALL COMPUTER DEPICTIONS LIFT PRECIP OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE
CAP ALOFT REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT STORMS NORTH NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER ON THE EDGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE STILL SHAPING UP TO BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION. BY 18Z THE
UPPER TROF IS APPROACHING EASTERN KS WITH A NEGATIVE
TILT...SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO 2500-3500J/KG...WITH THE NAM AS HIGH AS 4500 OUT
WEST OF MANHATTAN. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RISES FROM 35KTS TO NEAR 50KTS
AROUND 0Z IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 35KTS
FROM 0-1KM. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE 9C OR GREATER FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SOUNDING...WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING PERPENDICULAR ACROSS
THE SURFACE TROF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WIND PROFILE...INITIAL THINKING
IS THAT LARGE HAIL...BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS A POSSIBILITY
WHERE STORMS CAN FORM LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR IN
THE COLUMN...AND WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP WIND THREAT IN MIND FROM
NOT ONLY STRONG DISCRETE CELLS BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF
STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN PUT IN A MODERATE DAY 2
RISK FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO
HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON TIMING AND ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE GREATER THREAT IN AREAS EAST OF
ABILENE. 67

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...EC WANTS TO MOVE THE SECONDARY MAIN LOW OVER THE
AREA GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY TRIGGER YET ANOTHER LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL DN SC PARTS OF THE STATE. KEPT
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SE FOR POSSIBLY BOUNDARY HANGING UP OVER
THAT AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE IT STARTS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A BRIEF
RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 67

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CONFIDENCE IN IFR VSBY IS IS DIMINISHING AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY TO OCCUR...BUT WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF IFR VSBY. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM
GENERATING MID DAY CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN KS. THERE IS NO GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THE NAMS DISJOINTED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH WEAKENS THE CAP. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 90. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...WOLTERS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WITH THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THE STRATUS REMAINING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z
THINKING WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KTS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINT TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO IN THE LOWER 60S AND A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND SUGGEST DEWPOINTS ARE MOT LIKELY TO DROP
OFF MUCH TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INSERTED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT PEAK
HEATING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING/THICKENING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOIST AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS LATER AGAIN SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT...STILL THINK SOME
FOG MAY FORM WITH THE STRATUS LATE...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD THIN AGAIN BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER CAPPING INVERSION BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAN BE
OVERCOME ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING IN THAT
LAYER...FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING CINH AND HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST...OR MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC MODEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE
CAPPING INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

BY 12Z SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE WESTERN
KANSAS BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30
TO 40 KTS...1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEAST AND ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS AND TURNING
IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CANNOT RULE OUT ANY WITH SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CONFIDENCE IN IFR VSBY IS IS DIMINISHING AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY TO OCCUR...BUT WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF IFR VSBY. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM
GENERATING MID DAY CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN KS. THERE IS NO GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THE NAMS DISJOINTED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH WEAKENS THE CAP. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 90. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180025
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
725 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WITH THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODELS SHOWING THE STRATUS REMAINING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED FOR SOME GROUND FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 08 AND 10Z
THINKING WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KTS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINT TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO IN THE LOWER 60S AND A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND SUGGEST DEWPOINTS ARE MOT LIKELY TO DROP
OFF MUCH TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INSERTED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT PEAK
HEATING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING/THICKENING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOIST AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS LATER AGAIN SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT...STILL THINK SOME
FOG MAY FORM WITH THE STRATUS LATE...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD THIN AGAIN BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER CAPPING INVERSION BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAN BE
OVERCOME ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING IN THAT
LAYER...FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING CINH AND HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST...OR MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC MODEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE
CAPPING INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

BY 12Z SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE WESTERN
KANSAS BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30
TO 40 KTS...1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEAST AND ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS AND TURNING
IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CANNOT RULE OUT ANY WITH SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED WITH RAISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. SO THERE SHOULD BE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THINK FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL NEAR THE DEWPOINT TEMP BEFORE THE STRATUS HAS A CHANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. AND WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER
60S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MIXED BY 14Z ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOLTERS
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172323
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT PEAK
HEATING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING/THICKENING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOIST AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS LATER AGAIN SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT...STILL THINK SOME
FOG MAY FORM WITH THE STRATUS LATE...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD THIN AGAIN BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER CAPPING INVERSION BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAN BE
OVERCOME ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING IN THAT
LAYER...FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER DOING CINH AND HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST...OR MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC MODEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE
CAPPING INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

BY 12Z SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE WESTERN
KANSAS BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30
TO 40 KTS...1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEAST AND ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS AND TURNING
IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CANNOT RULE OUT ANY WITH SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED WITH RAISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. SO THERE SHOULD BE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THINK FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL NEAR THE DEWPOINT TEMP BEFORE THE STRATUS HAS A CHANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. AND WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER
60S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MIXED BY 14Z ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172042
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFT PEAK
HEATING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING/THICKENING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AS
MOIST AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT INCREASE CLOUDS LATER AGAIN SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH NOT AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT...STILL THINK SOME
FOG MAY FORM WITH THE STRATUS LATE...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO GRIDS AT THIS POINT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD THIN AGAIN BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER CAPPING INVERSION BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAN BE
OVERCOME ENOUGH FOR SOME SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING IN THAT
LAYER...FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING CINH AND HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST...OR MORE IN LINE WITH THE EC MODEL.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE
CAPPING INVERSION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

BY 12Z SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE WESTERN
KANSAS BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 30
TO 40 KTS...1500-2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEAST AND ERODES THE CAPPING INVERSION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS AND TURNING
IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CANNOT RULE OUT ANY WITH SUPERCELLS.

MONDAY IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR STRATOCU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR AFT LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS DECK AND MVFR VSBYS IN
BR TO RETURN WITHIN AXIS OF MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW AFT
10-11Z...THEN VFR AFT 14Z AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE. WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS UNTIL AFT 14Z WHEN STRONGER SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171752 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE STATE ATTM...BROUGHT A FEW CLOUDS TO THE WEST COUNTIES AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES CENTRAL.  TEMPERATURES HAVE APPROACHED DEWPOINTS
WITH SOME LOWER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO GET LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FARTHER WEST AND NORTH
GIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTNING WINDS IN THE
ADVECTIVE LAYER. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60...SHOULD GET HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TOWARD MIDDLE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US AND KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN CHECK JUST ONE MORE DAY.  67

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND ...WITH SUNDAY LIKELY BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS.
A VERY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AT LEAST ONE VERY
ACTIVE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY THIS WEEKEND A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED H5 TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PUTTING EASTERN KANSAS SOLIDLY IN A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE 70S-80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. STARTING WITH SATURDAY A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS VERY UNLIKELY. WHAT MAY
BE A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP ON THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ADVECTING EASTWARD. SHORT
RANGE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY CONVERGING TOWARD A
SOLUTION THAT INDICATES A COUPLE OR FEW STORMS WILL GO UP IN SC/C
KANSAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS FORM AND HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT THEY
WOULD BRING A CHC/SCHC FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY
CAPPED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
SHOULD IT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
SEEING AS THOUGH A SCENARIO IN WHICH STRONG STORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THAT CAPPING INVERSION KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING THE MORE LIKELY
PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KANSAS. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL PRIME EASTERN KANSAS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
LOOK RATHER CAPPED OFF DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MB. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AS WELL AS COOLING MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND ERODE THE CAP. EXPECT ML CAPE VALUES ON
SUNDAY TO TOP 2500 J/KG...AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ONCE STORMS FIRE THEY WILL HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. THESE
PARAMETERS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS FOR SUNDAY. REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT...IT DOES SEEM
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BRING ABOUT A TORNADO
THREAT FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. NAM 0-1 SRH
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PROXIMITY OF WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE IS IN THE 100-150 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
TORNADO THREAT. SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO HAVING A TORNADO THREAT
IS THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXCEEDINGLY
CURVY...AND IN FACT ARE RATHER STRAIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT ARE EITHER UNIDIRECTIONAL OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BACKED
WITH HEIGHT. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADO OCCURRENCE IS
THAT WITH THE STRONG FORCING ENTERING THE AREA STORM COVERAGE
COULD BE RATHER LARGE...MAKING STORM SEEDING SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
FOR WIDESPREAD TORNADO OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
AGGRAVATING AND MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT CANNOT
GET EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD TORNADOES AT THIS POINT.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN
MORE SO ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE IN COVERAGE AND PROBABLY FORM AN MCS
WHICH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF END TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS BECOMES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT A RATHER NON PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
QUITE CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MONDAY...WITH
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
BEING THE THREATS. WILL ELABORATE ON MONDAY`S THREAT MORE AS IT
APPROACHES.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GET A
REPRIEVE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD COME LATER IN THE WEEK...TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA...WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF HERE...THEN
MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR STRATOCU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR AFT LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS DECK AND MVFR VSBYS IN
BR TO RETURN WITHIN AXIS OF MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW AFT
10-11Z...THEN VFR AFT 14Z AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE. WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS UNTIL AFT 14Z WHEN STRONGER SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...63

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE STATE ATTM...BROUGHT A FEW CLOUDS TO THE WEST COUNTIES AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES CENTRAL.  TEMPERATURES HAVE APPROACHED DEWPOINTS
WITH SOME LOWER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO GET LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FARTHER WEST AND NORTH
GIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTNING WINDS IN THE
ADVECTIVE LAYER. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60...SHOULD GET HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TOWARD MIDDLE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US AND KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN CHECK JUST ONE MORE DAY.  67

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND ...WITH SUNDAY LIKELY BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS.
A VERY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AT LEAST ONE VERY
ACTIVE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY THIS WEEKEND A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED H5 TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PUTTING EASTERN KANSAS SOLIDLY IN A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE 70S-80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. STARTING WITH SATURDAY A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS VERY UNLIKELY. WHAT MAY
BE A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP ON THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ADVECTING EASTWARD. SHORT
RANGE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY CONVERGING TOWARD A
SOLUTION THAT INDICATES A COUPLE OR FEW STORMS WILL GO UP IN SC/C
KANSAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS FORM AND HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT THEY
WOULD BRING A CHC/SCHC FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY
CAPPED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
SHOULD IT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
SEEING AS THOUGH A SCENARIO IN WHICH STRONG STORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THAT CAPPING INVERSION KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING THE MORE LIKELY
PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KANSAS. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL PRIME EASTERN KANSAS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
LOOK RATHER CAPPED OFF DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MB. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AS WELL AS COOLING MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND ERODE THE CAP. EXPECT ML CAPE VALUES ON
SUNDAY TO TOP 2500 J/KG...AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ONCE STORMS FIRE THEY WILL HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. THESE
PARAMETERS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS FOR SUNDAY. REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT...IT DOES SEEM
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BRING ABOUT A TORNADO
THREAT FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. NAM 0-1 SRH
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PROXIMITY OF WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE IS IN THE 100-150 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
TORNADO THREAT. SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO HAVING A TORNADO THREAT
IS THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXCEEDINGLY
CURVY...AND IN FACT ARE RATHER STRAIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT ARE EITHER UNIDIRECTIONAL OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BACKED
WITH HEIGHT. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADO OCCURRENCE IS
THAT WITH THE STRONG FORCING ENTERING THE AREA STORM COVERAGE
COULD BE RATHER LARGE...MAKING STORM SEEDING SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
FOR WIDESPREAD TORNADO OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
AGGRAVATING AND MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT CANNOT
GET EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD TORNADOES AT THIS POINT.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN
MORE SO ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE IN COVERAGE AND PROBABLY FORM AN MCS
WHICH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF END TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS BECOMES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT A RATHER NON PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
QUITE CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MONDAY...WITH
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
BEING THE THREATS. WILL ELABORATE ON MONDAY`S THREAT MORE AS IT
APPROACHES.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GET A
REPRIEVE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD COME LATER IN THE WEEK...TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA...WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF HERE...THEN
MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

TOP/FOE BOTH HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISBY MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM. THINK IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH AS THE SUN COMES UP TO
RAISE THE CIGS UP AND SCATTER IT OUT...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST IT STAYS CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. THINK THE DECK IS TOO
SHALLOW AND SUN TOO STRONG FOR THIS AND WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND
14/15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRAVEN
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KTOP 170905
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE STATE ATTM...BROUGHT A FEW CLOUDS TO THE WEST COUNTIES AND SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES CENTRAL.  TEMPERATURES HAVE APPROACHED DEWPOINTS
WITH SOME LOWER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.

MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO GET LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FARTHER WEST AND NORTH
GIVEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...AND LIGHTNENING WINDS IN THE
ADVECTIVE LAYER. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60...SHOULD GET HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TOWARD MIDDLE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US AND KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN CHECK JUST ONE MORE DAY.  67

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND ...WITH SUNDAY LIKELY BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS.
A VERY POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AT LEAST ONE VERY
ACTIVE DAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

BY THIS WEEKEND A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED H5 TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PUTTING EASTERN KANSAS SOLIDLY IN A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE 70S-80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. STARTING WITH SATURDAY A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS VERY UNLIKELY. WHAT MAY
BE A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP ON THE DRY LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ADVECTING EASTWARD. SHORT
RANGE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE INCREASINGLY CONVERGING TOWARD A
SOLUTION THAT INDICATES A COUPLE OR FEW STORMS WILL GO UP IN SC/C
KANSAS. SHOULD THESE STORMS FORM AND HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT THEY
WOULD BRING A CHC/SCHC FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY
CAPPED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE ELEVATED
SHOULD IT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
SEEING AS THOUGH A SCENARIO IN WHICH STRONG STORMS ARE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THAT CAPPING INVERSION KEPT POPS VERY LOW FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING THE MORE LIKELY
PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KANSAS. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL PRIME EASTERN KANSAS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
LOOK RATHER CAPPED OFF DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MB. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AS WELL AS COOLING MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL ACT TO
INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND ERODE THE CAP. EXPECT ML CAPE VALUES ON
SUNDAY TO TOP 2500 J/KG...AND MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ONCE STORMS FIRE THEY WILL HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. THESE
PARAMETERS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS FOR SUNDAY. REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT...IT DOES SEEM
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BRING ABOUT A TORNADO
THREAT FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. NAM 0-1 SRH
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PROXIMITY OF WHERE STORMS WILL
FIRE IS IN THE 100-150 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
TORNADO THREAT. SOME MITIGATING FACTORS TO HAVING A TORNADO THREAT
IS THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXCEEDINGLY
CURVY...AND IN FACT ARE RATHER STRAIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT ARE EITHER UNIDIRECTIONAL OR PERHAPS A LITTLE BACKED
WITH HEIGHT. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADO OCCURRENCE IS
THAT WITH THE STRONG FORCING ENTERING THE AREA STORM COVERAGE
COULD BE RATHER LARGE...MAKING STORM SEEDING SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC
FOR WIDESPREAD TORNADO OCCURRENCE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOTH
AGGRAVATING AND MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BUT CANNOT
GET EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD TORNADOES AT THIS POINT.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WOULD
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN
MORE SO ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE IN COVERAGE AND PROBABLY FORM AN MCS
WHICH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF END TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS BECOMES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

00Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT A RATHER NON PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
QUITE CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES FOR FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MONDAY...WITH
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
BEING THE THREATS. WILL ELABORATE ON MONDAY`S THREAT MORE AS IT
APPROACHES.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GET A
REPRIEVE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE FOR STORMS COULD COME LATER IN THE WEEK...TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMES BACK TO THE AREA...WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF HERE...THEN
MOVING IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF TOP/FOE AT 05Z AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN SIZE...AND EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT INITIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR AT TOP/FOE WHILE MHK WILL REMAIN VFR
LONGER ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS TAF REGARDING EVENTUAL CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS...AS WELL AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND PREVALENCE OF THE
FEATURES. HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITHIN THE TAF.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRAVEN
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 170513
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT WITH MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING IN MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ROBUST
IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND LOCAL RADARS
INDICATING VERY ISOLATED AND WEAK RETURNS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK RATHER MEAGER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOIST...THERE IS
LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT OR A MEANS TO MAINTAIN LIFT. THE LOCAL
RETURNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INSTABILITY
FOR ANY DEEPER CUMULUS TO TAP INTO...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
AND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY. WILL WATCH LATEST
TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITHOUT A MENTION. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NORTHWEST KANSAS STORMS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...AND VERY LIMITED INFLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA. THE BIGGER IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
COULD BE FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...THOUGH
THE DIFFICULTY IS IF STRATUS WILL FORM FIRST AND LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
CONDITIONS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN FOR FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO THEN
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CAPPED OFF SATURDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED OVERCOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FRONT MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ML CAPE RANGES FROM 2500 J/KG TO 3500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. 53

WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO THE
NORTHEAST KANSAS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR ANY DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR AND DEWPOINT READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL GIVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER...HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD EXPECT
TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
60 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPER CELL STORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST. EXPECT THE CELLS TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH AND POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL SUNDAY COULD ENHANCE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
RISK FOR THE CWA WHERE SOIL MOISTURE MAY BE AT OR NEAR SATURATED.
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING BETWEEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING CONSISTENTLY
SLOWER AND THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN BOTH INSTANCES CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SO CONTINUED WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH CHANCES
INSERTED ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REIGNS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z
ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILAR RESULT WITH A SLOWER ONSET ON TIMING SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

WITH NO STRONG INDICATION OF COOLER AIR MASSES OR STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...TEMPERATURES ARE ON PAR TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF TOP/FOE AT 05Z AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN SIZE...AND EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT INITIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR AT TOP/FOE WHILE MHK WILL REMAIN VFR
LONGER ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS TAF REGARDING EVENTUAL CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS...AS WELL AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND PREVALENCE OF THE
FEATURES. HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITHIN THE TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53/BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 162327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT WITH MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING IN MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ROBUST
IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND LOCAL RADARS
INDICATING VERY ISOLATED AND WEAK RETURNS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK RATHER MEAGER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOIST...THERE IS
LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT OR A MEANS TO MAINTAIN LIFT. THE LOCAL
RETURNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INSTABILITY
FOR ANY DEEPER CUMULUS TO TAP INTO...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
AND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY. WILL WATCH LATEST
TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITHOUT A MENTION. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NORTHWEST KANSAS STORMS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...AND VERY LIMITED INFLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA. THE BIGGER IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
COULD BE FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...THOUGH
THE DIFFICULTY IS IF STRATUS WILL FORM FIRST AND LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
CONDITIONS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN FOR FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO THEN
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CAPPED OFF SATURDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED OVERCOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FRONT MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ML CAPE RANGES FROM 2500 J/KG TO 3500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. 53

WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO THE
NORTHEAST KANSAS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR ANY DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR AND DEWPOINT READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL GIVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER...HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD EXPECT
TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
60 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPER CELL STORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST. EXPECT THE CELLS TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH AND POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL SUNDAY COULD ENHANCE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
RISK FOR THE CWA WHERE SOIL MOISTURE MAY BE AT OR NEAR SATURATED.
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING BETWEEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING CONSISTENTLY
SLOWER AND THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN BOTH INSTANCES CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SO CONTINUED WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH CHANCES
INSERTED ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REIGNS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z
ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILAR RESULT WITH A SLOWER ONSET ON TIMING SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

WITH NO STRONG INDICATION OF COOLER AIR MASSES OR STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...TEMPERATURES ARE ON PAR TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOWEN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR...CIG/VIS TO BUILD INTO TOP/FOE BETWEEN 08Z AND
10Z. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORTER LIVED VIS BELOW 1SM
AT TOP/FOE AS WELL. ALSO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO
MHK...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER THE LOWER CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MHK. ANY CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 15Z WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53/BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 162047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT WITH MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING IN MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE ROBUST
IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND LOCAL RADARS
INDICATING VERY ISOLATED AND WEAK RETURNS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK RATHER MEAGER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOIST...THERE IS
LITTLE FORCING FOR LIFT OR A MEANS TO MAINTAIN LIFT. THE LOCAL
RETURNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS INSTABILITY
FOR ANY DEEPER CUMULUS TO TAP INTO...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
AND VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY. WILL WATCH LATEST
TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY GO WITHOUT A MENTION. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THE NORTHWEST KANSAS STORMS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...AND VERY LIMITED INFLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA. THE BIGGER IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
COULD BE FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THIS MORNING...THOUGH
THE DIFFICULTY IS IF STRATUS WILL FORM FIRST AND LIMIT FOG
FORMATION. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
CONDITIONS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOULD SEE A BIT
MORE SUN FOR FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO THEN
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CAPPED OFF SATURDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRY LINE REMAINING WEST OF THE CWA IN WESTERN
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ASCENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED OVERCOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FRONT MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ML CAPE RANGES FROM 2500 J/KG TO 3500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. 53

WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE INTO THE
NORTHEAST KANSAS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR ANY DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR AND DEWPOINT READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL GIVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER...HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY TRACKS EASTWARD EXPECT
TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
60 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPER CELL STORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
STRONGEST. EXPECT THE CELLS TO EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PWAT VALUES OVER AN INCH AND POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL SUNDAY COULD ENHANCE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
RISK FOR THE CWA WHERE SOIL MOISTURE MAY BE AT OR NEAR SATURATED.
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING BETWEEN UPPER
SUPPORT AND POSITION OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING CONSISTENTLY
SLOWER AND THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN BOTH INSTANCES CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SO CONTINUED WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH CHANCES
INSERTED ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REIGNS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z
ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILAR RESULT WITH A SLOWER ONSET ON TIMING SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

WITH NO STRONG INDICATION OF COOLER AIR MASSES OR STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...TEMPERATURES ARE ON PAR TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOWEN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 10Z IN MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT THIS POINT DETAILS IN A CIG OR VIS
ISSUE ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE TRENDS
AS THIS PERIOD NEARS...BUT IFR EITHER WAY SEEMS QUITE LIKELY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 15Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53/BOWEN
AVIATION...65

000
FXUS63 KTOP 161738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND 08Z INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW STILL
SPINNING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTH OF ANY REAL EFFECTS FROM THIS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE CALM WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SURFACE TEMPS HAVE NOT
COOLED AS MUCH...MITIGATING THE FOG. TO THE SOUTH SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW. THIS STRATUS DECK MAY WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO WEAR OFF THIS MORNING
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN RECOMMENCE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS KEEPING
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS AS
MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SHORT RANGE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A COUPLE AREAS OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FIRST AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS FAR SE KANSAS AND SW
MISSOURI...WHERE SOME MEAGER ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE NW ZONES (NC
KANSAS)...WHERE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH GLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERALL EXPECT THAT
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. MAINLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

JL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL OVER SPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...CAUSING A
STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
THE TX PNHDL...NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN NE AND SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND CO AND THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NE/KS/NORTHERN OK. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE ECMWF
FORECAST MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
TORNADO THREAT...BUT ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S
OR 90 DEGREE READINGS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST...DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER THROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THE SECOND H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH LEAD NORTHERN H5 TROUGH AND TURN INTO A SINGLE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INITIALLY STORMS THAT GO UP ALONG THE FRONT MAY EVOLVE INTO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR AND MOST LIKELY A SQUALL LINE WILL RAPIDLY FORM
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE RATHER LOW. THOUGH
THE STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED IN A SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS...IF A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 10Z IN MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT THIS POINT DETAILS IN A CIG OR VIS
ISSUE ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE TRENDS
AS THIS PERIOD NEARS...BUT IFR EITHER WAY SEEMS QUITE LIKELY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...65

000
FXUS63 KTOP 161125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND 08Z INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW STILL
SPINNING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTH OF ANY REAL EFFECTS FROM THIS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE CALM WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SURFACE TEMPS HAVE NOT
COOLED AS MUCH...MITIGATING THE FOG. TO THE SOUTH SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW. THIS STRATUS DECK MAY WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO WEAR OFF THIS MORNING
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN RECOMMENCE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS KEEPING
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS AS
MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SHORT RANGE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A COUPLE AREAS OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FIRST AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS FAR SE KANSAS AND SW
MISSOURI...WHERE SOME MEAGER ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE NW ZONES (NC
KANSAS)...WHERE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH GLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERALL EXPECT THAT
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. MAINLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

JL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL OVER SPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...CAUSING A
STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
THE TX PNHDL...NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN NE AND SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND CO AND THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NE/KS/NORTHERN OK. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE ECMWF
FORECAST MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
TORNADO THREAT...BUT ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S
OR 90 DEGREE READINGS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST...DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER THROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THE SECOND H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH LEAD NORTHERN H5 TROUGH AND TURN INTO A SINGLE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INITIALLY STORMS THAT GO UP ALONG THE FRONT MAY EVOLVE INTO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR AND MOST LIKELY A SQUALL LINE WILL RAPIDLY FORM
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE RATHER LOW. THOUGH
THE STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED IN A SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS...IF A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

EARLY MORNING VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKE THIS MORNING
MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE REDUCED VSBY AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...LEIGHTON

000
FXUS63 KTOP 160846
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND 08Z INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW STILL
SPINNING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WITH THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE NORTH OF ANY REAL EFFECTS FROM THIS SLOWLY PROGRESSING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE CALM WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. AREAS WHERE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SURFACE TEMPS HAVE NOT
COOLED AS MUCH...MITIGATING THE FOG. TO THE SOUTH SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW. THIS STRATUS DECK MAY WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO WEAR OFF THIS MORNING
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM AND MIX A
BIT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN RECOMMENCE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS KEEPING
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS AS
MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SHORT RANGE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A COUPLE AREAS OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THAT MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FIRST AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS FAR SE KANSAS AND SW
MISSOURI...WHERE SOME MEAGER ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS. EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS ACROSS THE NW ZONES (NC
KANSAS)...WHERE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH GLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERALL EXPECT THAT
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES FOR THIS EVENING. MAINLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA.

JL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL OVER SPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...CAUSING A
STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM
THE TX PNHDL...NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN NE AND SD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND CO AND THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NE/KS/NORTHERN OK. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE ECMWF
FORECAST MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
TORNADO THREAT...BUT ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH SOME UPPER 80S
OR 90 DEGREE READINGS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST...DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER THROUGH THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SD. THE SECOND H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH LEAD NORTHERN H5 TROUGH AND TURN INTO A SINGLE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INITIALLY STORMS THAT GO UP ALONG THE FRONT MAY EVOLVE INTO
SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR AND MOST LIKELY A SQUALL LINE WILL RAPIDLY FORM
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THE PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL BE RATHER LOW. THOUGH
THE STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED IN A SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS...IF A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

GARGAN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF BUT STRATUS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIG/VIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AS WELL. MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS WILL FALL BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST BEYOND 15Z...PARTICULARLY AT TOP/FOE. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN IF/HOW FAST CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO IFR AND
HOW LONG CIGS WILL HANG AROUND BEFORE BREAKING UP.

BARJENBRUCH


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 160511
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATED TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

LOCAL AREA IS FLANKED BY TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A STALLING FRONT
DRAPED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH CLEARING AND GENERALLY SOUTH WIND BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE 80S.

SURFACE WINDS IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA HAVE VEERED TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST.
IN COMBINATION WITH MODELS...THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY LOSE CONTINUITY
AND MIX NORTH INTO NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 9-15 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME SOME REMNANT CAPPING
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGH ON DEWPOINTS...AND INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE QUITE
WHAT WAS EARLIER SUGGESTED. ALONG WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS...SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE QUITE UNLIKELY IN ANY STORM THAT COULD FIRE...WITH
PERHAPS DOWNBURST WINDS IN COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING WITH A
LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY RETREATING...WITH ANY ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER IT ALSO RETREATING. WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUD LOOKS TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND WITH
LIMITED WINDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE LATE MORNING. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM BREACHING THE
LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND IMPACTS ON WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEBRASKA THU NIGHT AND THERE
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO WESTERN KS/NE. HOWEVER...LLJ AND 850MB THETAE RIDGE AND
ADVECTION REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE CWA SO WOULD EXPECT THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY SMALL CHCS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NW
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 60S AS THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS FINALLY TAP
INTO THE GULF MOISTURE.

CONDS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. BY
SAT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING. LEE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN KS. ANY DRYLINE
PUSH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR WESTERN KS KEEPING ANY STORM INITIATION
WELL WEST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NW COUNTIES FOR
NOW BUT CHCS APPEAR TO BE DECREASING FOR SAT AFTERNOON STORMS IN
CENTRAL KS.

SAT NIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO KS AND THIS SHOULD ACT TO
PUSH THE SFC LOW EAST NORTHEAST WITH TIME. EML/CAP MAY ACT TO KEEP
BETTER STORM CHCS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE
SMALL CHCS IN THE NW HALF FOR THE TIME BEING.

SUN...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STORMS BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE PEAK HEATING. CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS SO THE PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL DEPART WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLORADO. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO SLOW/STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA AND COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHC FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE MONDAY SCENARIO GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR
STRONGER ON MON SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLVE.

RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END BY MON NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDS FORECAST INTO MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF BUT STRATUS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIG/VIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AS WELL. MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS WILL FALL BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST BEYOND 15Z...PARTICULARLY AT TOP/FOE. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN IF/HOW FAST CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO IFR AND
HOW LONG CIGS WILL HANG AROUND BEFORE BREAKING UP.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH