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000
FXUS63 KTOP 012038
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012038
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012038
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 20Z. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WERE MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE EDGE OF THE EML IN THE
FAR EAST. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND BEGINS TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE BETWEEN 21Z-AND 23Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE FORECAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THE SURFACE TO 1 KM AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING
AND BECOME SURFACED BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S NEAR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH WAS OVER MT AT 18Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH CLOSURE TO THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH SWING A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY IS
REPLACED BY GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE REPLACED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION. OVERALL...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY DRY
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME SMALL POPS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SURPRISED WELL SOUTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO RAIN CHANCES..CLOUDINESS AND THE COOL AIR NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...JONHSON
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011752
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-
SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT.
FROM THE SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE
TOO STRONG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK
BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011752
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-
SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT.
FROM THE SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE
TOO STRONG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK
BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEVELOP TSRA NEAR TOP AND FOE
BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INSERT. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-
SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT.
FROM THE SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE
TOO STRONG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK
BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MO HAS CAUSED BKN-OVC
STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KTOP. THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO
KFOE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. AFTER 14Z THE MIXING SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE LOW STRATUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE KTOP AND KFOE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...GARGAN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-
SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT.
FROM THE SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-
NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE
TOO STRONG FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK
BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WEAK OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MO HAS CAUSED BKN-OVC
STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KTOP. THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO
KFOE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. AFTER 14Z THE MIXING SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE LOW STRATUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE KTOP AND KFOE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...GARGAN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 010848
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT. FROM THE
SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND
STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 12Z. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
09Z, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TSRA CLUSTER OVER NE
HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE IN VCTS. EAST
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010848
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT. FROM THE
SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND
STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 12Z. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
09Z, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TSRA CLUSTER OVER NE
HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE IN VCTS. EAST
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 010437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 12Z. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
09Z, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TSRA CLUSTER OVER NE
HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE IN VCTS. EAST
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 12Z. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
09Z, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TSRA CLUSTER OVER NE
HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE IN VCTS. EAST
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 302328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH PERIOD WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KTOP/KFOE. AFTER 05Z, SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NE AND TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT KMHK WHERE AMOUNT
OF LIFT IS MUCH LOWER. MAY NEED TO ADD A PREVAILING THUNDER
MENTION IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH PERIOD WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KTOP/KFOE. AFTER 05Z, SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NE AND TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT KMHK WHERE AMOUNT
OF LIFT IS MUCH LOWER. MAY NEED TO ADD A PREVAILING THUNDER
MENTION IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 302328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH PERIOD WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KTOP/KFOE. AFTER 05Z, SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NE AND TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT KMHK WHERE AMOUNT
OF LIFT IS MUCH LOWER. MAY NEED TO ADD A PREVAILING THUNDER
MENTION IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH PERIOD WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF KTOP/KFOE. AFTER 05Z, SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN NE AND TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING AT KMHK WHERE AMOUNT
OF LIFT IS MUCH LOWER. MAY NEED TO ADD A PREVAILING THUNDER
MENTION IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 302045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE 19Z VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STILL IN
BETWEEN.  THE RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO FLATTEN AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHICH IS
SHOWING UP WELL ON WV IMAGERY.  A SURFACE LOW CAN BE SEEN AS THE
PREDOMINATE FEATURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN IA.  THE SMOKE PLUME FROM WILD FIRES OVER
CANADA IS STILL WORKING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS, BUT HAS NOW
ADVECTED MOSTLY INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS IT WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE DEVELOPS AND
SHIFTS EAST. THE BEST RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE OVER EXTREME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN KS AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WORKS OVER
THE REGION. THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME PROVIDED ANY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING LATER OVER EAST CENTRAL NE HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE.

TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE MORNING WAVE
MOVES THROUGH AND SKIES CLEAR AGAIN LATE MORNING.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORT RANGE MODELS VARY
IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
MID-AMERICA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN GENERAL...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST/EASTERN KS WITH
BETTER LARGE SCALE LIFT...WHILE LESSER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST. THAT SAID...ANY MCS THAT GETS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD AFFECT AREAS FARTHER WEST.

BEYOND THAT...CONSIDERABLE CHALLENGES EXIST IN TRYING TO TIME
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GEM
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND WOULD BRING BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA...WHILE GFS HAS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MORE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OVER
NORTHEAST KS WHICH WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES THERE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN
LONGITUDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AS GFS KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD IT
EAST WHILE ECMWF WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVES SUPPRESSES
THE RIDGE. THUS...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES DIFFER
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
DURING THAT TIME FRAME AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMETHING OF A
COMPROMISE AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...IF GFS TURNS OUT TO HAVE THE
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PATTERN...FORECAST POPS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAY BE TOO HIGH AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE





000
FXUS63 KTOP 301733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE





000
FXUS63 KTOP 301733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE





000
FXUS63 KTOP 301733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENTLY, THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE UNDER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER AN OUTFLOW OR COOL BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY MORNING. IT IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT AGAIN, OPTED TO NOT
ADD THE RESTRICTION AS IT WOULD BE OVER 12 HOURS OUT AT THIS
POINT. ALSO, THE BEST SETUP DOES STILL LOOK TO BE AN AXIS OF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. OTHER THAN THAT, THE TREND WILL BE CONTINUED DEVELOPING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CU WITH BASES OF
6,000 TO 9,000 FEET WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
KFOE AND KTOP TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...GARGAN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 300852
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300852
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 300427
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300427
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 300427
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300427
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT SITES WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. INCOMING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PICKUP SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AFT 15Z.
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE
OUT THE MENTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 292329
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS AS WEAK WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 292329
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS AS WEAK WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THAT TIME FRAME. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...HELLER





000
FXUS63 KTOP 292048
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A
COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES
FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...HELLER





000
FXUS63 KTOP 292048
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGER WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL US. THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND 850MB WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 28 DEGREE C ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. DUE TO DEEPER MIXING (820-840MB),
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE SHOULD EQUAL
THE AIR TEMPERATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A
COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...AND THE LOWEST CHANCES
FARTHER WEST.

LATE WEEK HAS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES AS LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
MAINTAINING MUCH CONTINUITY.  THAT SAID, FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS STILL EXISTS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAVES IS ONE PROBLEM WITH THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
POINT.  BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO ENTER THE
OUTLOOK AREA IS STILL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS BEFORE
SATURDAY.  THE TREND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING OUT OF SOUTHERN KS AND
LINGERING THERE.  COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 4TH, BUT AT THIS POINT CHANCES ARE STILL SMALL
WITH NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY SOME CLOUDS HINDERING DAYTIME HEATING
THEREFORE PROBABLY NOT ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD.  AGAIN, TIMING DIFFERENCES
COULD BE IMPORTANT IN THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATE FRONT COULD AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOESN`T BUILD
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS PROGGED MORE SO BY THE
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291721
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291721
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291721
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HELLER





000
FXUS63 KTOP 291721
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HELLER





000
FXUS63 KTOP 291115
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TODAY
SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291115
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TODAY
SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 290806
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR THE MOST PART...SAVE
AREAS OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
CANADA.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
STATE...WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL
THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX TO A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IT MAY FEEL
JUST AS WARM.  HIGH SMOKE PLUMES ALSO LIKELY TO HELP SHAVE A DEGREE
OR TWO OFF HIGHS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD ALSO HELP
MAKE FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY. HIGHS FORECAST FROM UPPER 80S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT LOWS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WAA STARTS TO
MOVE TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THE COMING DAYS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AS CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN NE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THIS MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WHICH PLACES DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN IA OR MO AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAR EASTERN KS TO BE
CLIPPED BY THE MCS OR NEAR THE DEVELOPMENT BEING CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE.
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. LATE WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER MID/UPPER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER MCS IN MO. AFTER THAT FRONT
DIVES SOUTH THE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS MORE MID/UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW
10 KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 290430
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 290430
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 282334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 282334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 282334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





000
FXUS63 KTOP 282334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WAS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.

AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM A MCPHERSON TO
OSAGE CITY, TO SOUTH OF THE KC METRO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF GARNETT,
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF ICT. THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AT 2 PM, WAS
LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO
NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CU FIELD DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH INCLUDE THE HRRR, WRF AND 12KM NAM
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT
OVERTAKES THE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THERE`S A CHANCE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES AFTER 22Z BUT THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. I MAY KEEP
SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM EAST OF EMP, EAST
ACROSS COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES BUT WILL END SLIGHT POP CHANCES
BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT MUCH COOLER WITH UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE FRONT, JUST AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND A BIT COOLER AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

MONDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK
TO BE DRY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S RANGE.

MID TO LATE WEEK COULD BE ON AND OFF ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS.  AS THE QUITE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO FLATTEN,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK OVER THE
REGION.  THE LATE EVENING THURSDAY INTO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORT LOBE CAN DEVELOP AND HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY WOULD LIKELY LOSE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO SATURDAY AND
LINGER TO THE SOUTH WHICH AT THIS POINT COULD PRESENT PROBLEMS AT
LEAST FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  ALL THAT SAID, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE 4TH OF JULY HAS A DECENT SHOT OF BEING DRY OVER MOST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VERY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  REGARDLESS, AT THIS POINT, CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK SMALL.  AGAIN, WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THE TREND OF MINOR
SHORTWAVE AND MINOR RIDGE PLACEMENT, IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR OUT AS MANY
VARIABLES CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE.

TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S WHICH PUTS THOSE VALUES RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...DRAKE/GDP
AVIATION...BOWEN





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