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000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02Z
with all short term guidance showing CIGS quickly falling to low
end MVFR CIGS by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 MB while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR CIGS are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 262024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02Z
with all short term guidance showing CIGS quickly falling to low
end MVFR CIGS by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 MB while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR CIGS are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime
hours with light northwesterly winds. A weak shortwave will clip the
region late this afternoon through tonight, bringing scattered rain
showers and MVFR cigs/vis for a few hours. There is still some
uncertainty with when exactly these showers will exit the TAF sites
early Friday morning and how quickly cig/vis conditions will
improve. Some models have the sites quickly improving to VFR
conditions after the rain while other models hold on to the lower
ceilings, so have kept a scattered MVFR cloud deck mentioned at this
time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime
hours with light northwesterly winds. A weak shortwave will clip the
region late this afternoon through tonight, bringing scattered rain
showers and MVFR cigs/vis for a few hours. There is still some
uncertainty with when exactly these showers will exit the TAF sites
early Friday morning and how quickly cig/vis conditions will
improve. Some models have the sites quickly improving to VFR
conditions after the rain while other models hold on to the lower
ceilings, so have kept a scattered MVFR cloud deck mentioned at this
time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime
hours with light northwesterly winds. A weak shortwave will clip the
region late this afternoon through tonight, bringing scattered rain
showers and MVFR cigs/vis for a few hours. There is still some
uncertainty with when exactly these showers will exit the TAF sites
early Friday morning and how quickly cig/vis conditions will
improve. Some models have the sites quickly improving to VFR
conditions after the rain while other models hold on to the lower
ceilings, so have kept a scattered MVFR cloud deck mentioned at this
time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime
hours with light northwesterly winds. A weak shortwave will clip the
region late this afternoon through tonight, bringing scattered rain
showers and MVFR cigs/vis for a few hours. There is still some
uncertainty with when exactly these showers will exit the TAF sites
early Friday morning and how quickly cig/vis conditions will
improve. Some models have the sites quickly improving to VFR
conditions after the rain while other models hold on to the lower
ceilings, so have kept a scattered MVFR cloud deck mentioned at this
time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63









000
FXUS63 KTOP 260822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63









000
FXUS63 KTOP 260444 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 260444 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Although skies will clear through 12z...appears that mixing will
remain strong enough to keep fog from forming...so have opted to
keep it out of the terminal forecasts for now. More mid level
clouds will form after 23z/27 ahead of the next shortwave trough.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252351 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Band of MVFR cigs/vsbys in rain that has been moving southeastward through
KMHK will be moving across the KTOP/KFOE terminals through 03z before
the rain ends/winds decrease and cigs return to VFR. Expect MVFR
cigs and rain to improve to vfr in KMHK in the 02Z-04Z time frame with
decreasing north winds. VFR conditions then expected at all terminals
beyond 04Z...although did maintain some potential for brief mvfr
vsbys in fog at KMHK 10-13Z. This will be dependant on whether
llvl mixing is weak enough for fog to form towards sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252351 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Band of MVFR cigs/vsbys in rain that has been moving southeastward through
KMHK will be moving across the KTOP/KFOE terminals through 03z before
the rain ends/winds decrease and cigs return to VFR. Expect MVFR
cigs and rain to improve to vfr in KMHK in the 02Z-04Z time frame with
decreasing north winds. VFR conditions then expected at all terminals
beyond 04Z...although did maintain some potential for brief mvfr
vsbys in fog at KMHK 10-13Z. This will be dependant on whether
llvl mixing is weak enough for fog to form towards sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252351 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Band of MVFR cigs/vsbys in rain that has been moving southeastward through
KMHK will be moving across the KTOP/KFOE terminals through 03z before
the rain ends/winds decrease and cigs return to VFR. Expect MVFR
cigs and rain to improve to vfr in KMHK in the 02Z-04Z time frame with
decreasing north winds. VFR conditions then expected at all terminals
beyond 04Z...although did maintain some potential for brief mvfr
vsbys in fog at KMHK 10-13Z. This will be dependant on whether
llvl mixing is weak enough for fog to form towards sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252351 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Band of MVFR cigs/vsbys in rain that has been moving southeastward through
KMHK will be moving across the KTOP/KFOE terminals through 03z before
the rain ends/winds decrease and cigs return to VFR. Expect MVFR
cigs and rain to improve to vfr in KMHK in the 02Z-04Z time frame with
decreasing north winds. VFR conditions then expected at all terminals
beyond 04Z...although did maintain some potential for brief mvfr
vsbys in fog at KMHK 10-13Z. This will be dependant on whether
llvl mixing is weak enough for fog to form towards sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252106
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Northerly winds continue to advect low end MVFR cigs into the area,
with rain showers developing around 22z.  Expect little to change
for several hours and will again carry prevailing rain until late
this evening, after which expect conditions to become VFR.  Will
need to watch for BR in the early morning at river terminals if
skies clear and winds lighten enough for it to form after todays
rain.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252106
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Northerly winds continue to advect low end MVFR cigs into the area,
with rain showers developing around 22z.  Expect little to change
for several hours and will again carry prevailing rain until late
this evening, after which expect conditions to become VFR.  Will
need to watch for BR in the early morning at river terminals if
skies clear and winds lighten enough for it to form after todays
rain.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252106
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Temperatures and winds today on the cool and breezy side as a cold
front moves southward across the forecast area. Series of upper
waves moving across the Central US with leading northern wave across
the upper midwest and another extending southward through the
Central and Southern Rockies. Southern branch will initially bring
rain through the area into the late evening hours before clearing
the area after midnight.

For tonight think primary thunder chances will remain south of I-70,
with a few heavier storms south of I-35 and weakening into the
evening.  May see some hail around nickel size early in the south,
and may also get some ice pellets mixed in with the showers up near
Nebraska where temperatures aloft are colder lower.  Have chances
ending by midnight through the southeast, with lows in the upper 20s
north to low/middle 30s southeast.  Cold advection continues through
noon for much of the northeast counties on Thursday and may hold
highs only in the 40s, while increasing southerly winds in the west
may bring highs in to the middle 50s.  Clipper wave in the late
afternoon brings a chance for some light rain in the northeast, and
given cold temperatures aloft through the day, would not be
surprised to see some flakes mixed in, but at this time with
temperatures in the 40s think whatever showers we get would melt
before getting to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper trough axis traverses southeast across the region on
Thursday evening. Embedded lift within the northwest flow aloft
brings a narrow and fast-moving system through portions of
northeast Kansas. Best chances for rainfall are through midnight,
with showers tapering off over far east central Kansas early
Friday morning. Models are pretty consistent in seeing up to near
a tenth of an inch over far northeastern areas, tapering off to
very light amounts further west. For this reason increased precip
chances east of highway 75 through 06Z. Overnight lows Friday
morning are progged to hover right around freezing, especially in
lower lying areas so if any precip occurs after midnight cannot
rule out light snow mixing with the rain. An additional weak wave
tracks through late Friday evening with varying signals on the
moisture availability. GEM appears overdone with QPF while the GFS
is much drier through the column. Sided closer to the middle
solution with the ECMWF solution and have slight pops over far
eastern Kansas. With lows Saturday morning in the upper 20s to low
30s, continued to mention a light rain and snow mix. Sfc high
pressure and light winds influence the lesser mixing and cooler
temps for Friday in the 50s. Flow increases and veers to the south
by Saturday increasing warm air advection during the afternoon.
Highs in the 60s are likely with perhaps a few areas hitting 70
degrees over north central Kansas.

There is not very high confidence or consensus beginning Sunday for
much in the way of precipitation, but there is at least a small
chance of rain on Sunday and then again on Wednesday time frame with
some thunderstorms possible.  There is a shortwave that will move
through the upper Midwest and dig slightly into the forecast region
with some weak forcing taking shape over parts of northeastern KS
mainly East of Topeka down into Emporia.  The best chance for
activity will likely be Saturday afternoon if anything can develop
with very limited QPF at this point.  Monday and Tuesday appear to
be dry and under the influence of an upper level ridge, before we
see the development of a leeside trough with associated low move
into northern TX and OK region.  We do look to be on the very
northern side of this area of low pressure, so our chances of
thunderstorms will remain small but nonetheless will keep at least a
small chance of a warm frontal influence over the region.
Instability at this point looks to be limited and does make sense
with us staying on the cooler side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Northerly winds continue to advect low end MVFR cigs into the area,
with rain showers developing around 22z.  Expect little to change
for several hours and will again carry prevailing rain until late
this evening, after which expect conditions to become VFR.  Will
need to watch for BR in the early morning at river terminals if
skies clear and winds lighten enough for it to form after todays
rain.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the 12z TAFs, LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vis this morning with areas of
dense fog near the TAF sites. These cigs/vis should briefly improve
by mid to late morning to VFR conditions before areas of rain
develop near the TAF sites late this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions should quickly improve by late this evening with cloud
cover scattering out into Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the 12z TAFs, LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vis this morning with areas of
dense fog near the TAF sites. These cigs/vis should briefly improve
by mid to late morning to VFR conditions before areas of rain
develop near the TAF sites late this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions should quickly improve by late this evening with cloud
cover scattering out into Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the 12z TAFs, LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vis this morning with areas of
dense fog near the TAF sites. These cigs/vis should briefly improve
by mid to late morning to VFR conditions before areas of rain
develop near the TAF sites late this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions should quickly improve by late this evening with cloud
cover scattering out into Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the 12z TAFs, LIFR to VLIFR cigs/vis this morning with areas of
dense fog near the TAF sites. These cigs/vis should briefly improve
by mid to late morning to VFR conditions before areas of rain
develop near the TAF sites late this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions should quickly improve by late this evening with cloud
cover scattering out into Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250903
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr/ifr stratus and fog will slowly dissipate aft 12z. Otherwise
mid and high clouds will then linger with vfr conditions through
17z before stratocu deck around 3500 ft affects the terminals
beyond 18z in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through
with gusty north winds over 20 kts. Light rain is expected behind the
front but vsbys should generally remain VFR.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250903
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Early this morning a stratus deck remained firmly in place across
northeastern Kansas. This cloud cover combined with the moist ground
from yesterday`s rain resulted in some areas of dense fog developing
across portions of north central and northeast Kansas. Short-range
model guidance suggests that these areas of dense fog may linger
through mid morning before clearing out initially near the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

The region will remain mostly cloudy today as a mid-level trough
approaches the area, helping to push a cold front southeastward
across the CWA late morning into mid afternoon. In addition to this
passage of the cold front, models show the warm front extending from
the surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles lifting just
north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border by this afternoon. This warm
front will be the focus for some decent lift and modest instability
along and south of the boundary. With a southwesterly low-level jet
in place across southeast Kansas this afternoon, expect overrunning
of moisture northward into east central Kansas, resulting in
increasing chances for precipitation by early this afternoon. While
the better instability looks to remain focused closer to the
Kansas/Oklahoma border, some weak elevated instability should be
present over east central Kansas to produce some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the better chances for
precipitation will be focused across east central Kansas, some
increased lift will be present behind the cold front as a vort max
from the approaching mid-level trough skims across far northern
Kansas. While the better forcing looks to remain over southern
Nebraska and northwestern Kansas during the day, still could see a
few stray showers developing across far north central Kansas today.
However, initially the main challenge will be overcoming the
mid-level dry air that is distinctly noted above the early morning
stratus deck in the model soundings. As a result, conditions may be
predominantly dry across far northern Kansas this morning before the
low/mid levels are able to better saturate by mid to late afternoon.
With this in mind, have trimmed back PoPs for this morning across
this area. Better forcing will be in place across the forecast area
by late afternoon through this evening as the vort max moves over
the area, resulting in more widespread chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon through this evening.
Precipitation should end from west to east as the mid-level trough
advances over the region, with dry conditions by the overnight
hours.

As for temperatures, have a non-diurnal temperature trend going for
today as temperatures should drop this afternoon across north
central Kansas behind the passage of the cold front. With extensive
cloud cover expected across the region today, have dropped
temperatures by a few degrees with highs ranging from the low/mid
50s north to the mid 60s south. With diminishing cloud cover
overnight, low temperatures should be able to drop into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Models are showing a wave moving quickly southward on the back side
of the upper trough on Thursday and Thursday Evening. Speed of the
wave and associated forcing still in question Thursday night and
there is a consensus that there will be the potential for light rain
in the afternoon and evening and most likely a quick exit Thursday
night. Thermal profiles suggest all rain with a mix of rain and snow
late toward the end of the event. Temperatures cool into the upper
20s to lower 30s. Another fast moving wave will bring another chance
of light precipitation on Friday night to the area. Amounts look to
be on the light side with limited moisture and soundings show rain
with a rain and snow mix later in the night. Differences in the
models with the timing and placement of the PV anomaly and
frontogenetic forcing and will maintain a low confidence
precipitation forecast. Highs in the 50s on Friday with south winds.
Lows fall into the lower to middle 30s Saturday morning.

Rising heights on Saturday and warm advection will temperatures to
warm back into the 60s in north central Kansas with the 50s across
the northeast. Lower boundary layer remains mixed Saturday night
with southerly winds and have bumped lows up a couple of degrees
into the lower to mid 40s. A upper trough moving across the northern
Plains on Sunday will sweep a cool front southeast across northeast
Kansas through the day. Temperatures warm back into the 70s for much
of the area with upper 60s in the far northeast. GFS and ECMWF
differ with the strength of the upper trough with the GFS deeper and
further south. Have favored the GFS and GEM which offer similar
solutions with respect to the strength of the wave and forcing
remaining to the north for any precipitation. Southerly return flow
develops Monday and continues on Tuesday as a shortwave trough
develops in the SW states and Mexico. Models differ with the
evolution of the upper trough through Tuesday. Will keep low pops
for the southeast CWA for now given uncertainty and confidence in
any on solution. Highs in the 60s Monday and lower 70s Tuesday. Lows
Monday night in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr/ifr stratus and fog will slowly dissipate aft 12z. Otherwise
mid and high clouds will then linger with vfr conditions through
17z before stratocu deck around 3500 ft affects the terminals
beyond 18z in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through
with gusty north winds over 20 kts. Light rain is expected behind the
front but vsbys should generally remain VFR.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-036-038-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250451 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr/ifr stratus and fog will slowly dissipate aft 12z. Otherwise
mid and high clouds will then linger with vfr conditions through
17z before stratocu deck around 3500 ft affects the terminals
beyond 18z in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through
with gusty north winds over 20 kts. Light rain is expected behind the
front but vsbys should generally remain VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250451 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr/ifr stratus and fog will slowly dissipate aft 12z. Otherwise
mid and high clouds will then linger with vfr conditions through
17z before stratocu deck around 3500 ft affects the terminals
beyond 18z in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through
with gusty north winds over 20 kts. Light rain is expected behind the
front but vsbys should generally remain VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr stratus will slowly clear out...but with light winds and
residual llvl moisture...expect fog to develop with ifr vsbys
through the night. Mid and high clouds later in the night may
allow for shallow fog to disperse by 13z. Otherwise...expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the TAF fcst...however
stratocu deck around 3500 ft may affect the terminals beyond 18z
in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through with gusty
north winds over 20 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr stratus will slowly clear out...but with light winds and
residual llvl moisture...expect fog to develop with ifr vsbys
through the night. Mid and high clouds later in the night may
allow for shallow fog to disperse by 13z. Otherwise...expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the TAF fcst...however
stratocu deck around 3500 ft may affect the terminals beyond 18z
in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through with gusty
north winds over 20 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr stratus will slowly clear out...but with light winds and
residual llvl moisture...expect fog to develop with ifr vsbys
through the night. Mid and high clouds later in the night may
allow for shallow fog to disperse by 13z. Otherwise...expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the TAF fcst...however
stratocu deck around 3500 ft may affect the terminals beyond 18z
in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through with gusty
north winds over 20 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Mvfr stratus will slowly clear out...but with light winds and
residual llvl moisture...expect fog to develop with ifr vsbys
through the night. Mid and high clouds later in the night may
allow for shallow fog to disperse by 13z. Otherwise...expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the TAF fcst...however
stratocu deck around 3500 ft may affect the terminals beyond 18z
in the wake of the next cold front as it moves through with gusty
north winds over 20 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242042
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch









000
FXUS63 KTOP 242042
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242042
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242042
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

At 3 PM Tuesday, Surface low pressure was located in southeast KS
with a warm front nosing just into the southeast corner of the
forecast area and a westerly wind shift intersecting this warm front
in Anderson county. Visible satellite indicated a broad area of
agitated cumulus and a few towering cumulus focused just south of
Anderson county. Meanwhile, the strong upper level short wave trough
was quite evident in water vapor satellite imagery over north
central KS and moving quickly east.  For the most part, parcels in
northern KS remained capped and unable to realize the very steep
lapse rates aloft. However, vertical motion has been sufficient to
support showers and briefly lived convective features in north
central KS under the trough...moving generally east northeast. This
is likely to persist into far northeast KS and out of the area.
Farther south, it appears that the bulk of convection will be held
southeast of the forecast area, although there is some small
potential for elevated parcels to become briefly uncapped in east
central KS before 6 PM, and this could result in one or two
thunderstorms capable of producing some hail. Overall though, deep
convection looks unlikely.

This strong storm system moves out of the forecast area along with
any remnant showers by 8 PM or so with clearing skies filling in.
While odd with a departing strong surface low, winds are likely to
become nearly calm by midnight as a new jet max and upper low
quickly cross the Central Rockies...effectively neutralizing the
surface pressure pattern. Areas that received rain overnight are not
expected to see much dry advection after today`s system departs, but
clear skies and light winds could allow fog to develop especially in
low areas. Have not included it in the forecast at this time, but
will have to monitor trends this evening for fog potential. Any fog
is expected to decrease close to or just after sunrise as low level
flow increases with the strengthening surface low to the southwest.

On Wednesday, a warm front will lift back north in the morning but
should not make it much farther north than the KS/OK border. Will
likely see some overrunning of moisture into southeast KS and this
could result in showers or even a few storms into east central KS
particularly in the afternoon. Farther north, a strong northern
stream vort max will be moving south through the day. The vertical
motion with this trough will be associated with frontogenesis and
some elevated instability...and should be sufficient to overcome an
initially dry low/mid level airmass. Thus expect a band of rain
showers to move southeast across the area from very late morning
through the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Progressive shortwave trough passing through the region on Wednesday
will surge a stronger cold front southeast during the early evening
period. Residual moisture behind the front is meager at best however
descent ascent along the h85 boundary should develop light rain
showers across much of the area through midnight. Weak instability
noted along and south of Interstate 35 by early evening may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two, with the higher thunderstorm coverage
along the surface front across southern Kansas into Oklahoma.

Upper trough lifts eastward Thursday with northwesterly winds at 10
to 15 mph during the afternoon. A much cooler air mass fills into
the area with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. A secondary, weak upper trough quickly translates through
the predominant northwest flow, entering north central areas by late
afternoon Thursday and spreading across the CWA Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings between guidance are showing slight discrepancies on
lift maximizing at similar time periods. 12Z GFS and GEM are faster
in carrying precip mainly in the form of rain while the NAM, SREF,
and ECMWF solutions are a bit slower, allowing surface temps to
reach closer to the freezing mark. For now will maintain mention of
rain and snow Thursday evening, however believe most of it will be
in the form of rain with no accumulations anticipated. A third
similar shortwave trough impacts northern and eastern portions of
the CWA Friday evening. Much of the light precip is expected to fall
as rain during the early evening hours, with perhaps a rain and snow
mix after midnight as lows fall to the lower 30s.

Air mass modifies once again for the weekend as upper ridging builds
over the region while a lee trough develops over western Kansas.
Better mixing through the boundary layer on Saturday lead to raising
highs a few degrees towards the mid 60s for central portions of
Kansas, while weaker advection results in upper 50s for far eastern
Kansas. Southwest flow increases Sunday in response to the next
front entering in the morning to mid afternoon time frame. Models
are still handling the speed of the system differently, yet are
pretty similar in increased sfc heating to the low 70s Sunday. Left
out mention of precip for now as the better forcing still lies north
and east closer to the trough axis. Southerly flow resumes for
Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave trough develops over the southwest
CONUS, impacting the southern and central plains on Tuesday. For now
have a mention of slight chances for thunderstorms as models are
much different on timing and depth of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch









000
FXUS63 KTOP 241705
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to short term and aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Have made some relatively minor adjustments to the short term
forecast. The first was to lower temperatures, particularly in the
northeast as north central KS is still on track to have sunshine
late this afternoon and east central KS will have warm advection
with the warm front lifting into the area. The second was to
adjust precipitation chances. An area of enhanced lift was
currently bringing showers across north central and into eastern
KS so increased POPs within this band and track it steadily east
through early afternoon. Then adjusted precip chances to more
accurately time the motion of the strong upper trough currently
located in far northwest KS. The lift with the trough is currently
strong enough to produce shower activity moving across north
central KS at noon despite a strong elevated inversion. The main
question is whether the lift with this trough will be sufficient
to overcome the cap later this afternoon as it moves east.
Mid/upper level lapse rates are very steep near the trough axis
(12Z DDC RAOB had VERY impressive lapse rates which are advecting
into eastern KS). If the elevated cap weakens sufficiently, could
see elevated thunderstorms develop this afternoon even well north
of the sfc warm front, and these would again be capable of
producing some hail. Farther south, near the warm front, model
guidance is remarkably consistent in initiating deep convection
around 21Z near the surface low which should be in southeast KS.
It currently looks like convective towers should begin to go up
somewhere east of US75 and south of I-35, with actual storms
beginning to take shape as the forcing approaches the KS/MO
border. Supercell structures should rapidly develop at that point,
but the threat is likely to be out of the forecast area so at this
time will be closely monitoring the potential for any earlier
development (farther west), and also elevated storm potential
farther north and west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241705
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to short term and aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Have made some relatively minor adjustments to the short term
forecast. The first was to lower temperatures, particularly in the
northeast as north central KS is still on track to have sunshine
late this afternoon and east central KS will have warm advection
with the warm front lifting into the area. The second was to
adjust precipitation chances. An area of enhanced lift was
currently bringing showers across north central and into eastern
KS so increased POPs within this band and track it steadily east
through early afternoon. Then adjusted precip chances to more
accurately time the motion of the strong upper trough currently
located in far northwest KS. The lift with the trough is currently
strong enough to produce shower activity moving across north
central KS at noon despite a strong elevated inversion. The main
question is whether the lift with this trough will be sufficient
to overcome the cap later this afternoon as it moves east.
Mid/upper level lapse rates are very steep near the trough axis
(12Z DDC RAOB had VERY impressive lapse rates which are advecting
into eastern KS). If the elevated cap weakens sufficiently, could
see elevated thunderstorms develop this afternoon even well north
of the sfc warm front, and these would again be capable of
producing some hail. Farther south, near the warm front, model
guidance is remarkably consistent in initiating deep convection
around 21Z near the surface low which should be in southeast KS.
It currently looks like convective towers should begin to go up
somewhere east of US75 and south of I-35, with actual storms
beginning to take shape as the forcing approaches the KS/MO
border. Supercell structures should rapidly develop at that point,
but the threat is likely to be out of the forecast area so at this
time will be closely monitoring the potential for any earlier
development (farther west), and also elevated storm potential
farther north and west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Expect MVFR cig/vis for the remainder of the afternoon through
around 00Z, give or take 1 hour. Cig heights will border on IFR,
with the best chance at FOE and will have to closely monitor
trends. Will have periods of light rain mainly before 21Z at MHK
and 22Z at TOP/FOE, with some potential for thunderstorms to
develop between 20-22Z. Finally, given nearly calm winds
overnight, clearing skies, and some recent rainfall, may have fog
development and have addressed the most likely hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should drop to MVFR conditions this morning
as areas of showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Cannot
rule out some borderline IFR/MVFR cigs and vis late morning into
this afternoon with any thunderstorms that develop near the TAF
sites. As this system passes to the east, winds will back from the
east to the northwest and become light and variable overnight. Cigs
should quickly lift to VFR conditions this evening with scattered
mid-level clouds developing by Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should drop to MVFR conditions this morning
as areas of showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Cannot
rule out some borderline IFR/MVFR cigs and vis late morning into
this afternoon with any thunderstorms that develop near the TAF
sites. As this system passes to the east, winds will back from the
east to the northwest and become light and variable overnight. Cigs
should quickly lift to VFR conditions this evening with scattered
mid-level clouds developing by Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should drop to MVFR conditions this morning
as areas of showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Cannot
rule out some borderline IFR/MVFR cigs and vis late morning into
this afternoon with any thunderstorms that develop near the TAF
sites. As this system passes to the east, winds will back from the
east to the northwest and become light and variable overnight. Cigs
should quickly lift to VFR conditions this evening with scattered
mid-level clouds developing by Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should drop to MVFR conditions this morning
as areas of showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Cannot
rule out some borderline IFR/MVFR cigs and vis late morning into
this afternoon with any thunderstorms that develop near the TAF
sites. As this system passes to the east, winds will back from the
east to the northwest and become light and variable overnight. Cigs
should quickly lift to VFR conditions this evening with scattered
mid-level clouds developing by Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240851
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Moisture will continue to surge northward with mvfr cigs and
vsbys in showers and thunderstorms developing in all terminals
in the 06-08z timeframe. Cigs and vsbys will then lower to
IFR/MVFR in fog and drizzle respectively by 12z and linger
through 19z before winds shift to the west with a gradual
improvement in cigs and vsbys then thru 00z/25 with skies SKC by
00z/25.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240851
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Moisture will continue to surge northward with mvfr cigs and
vsbys in showers and thunderstorms developing in all terminals
in the 06-08z timeframe. Cigs and vsbys will then lower to
IFR/MVFR in fog and drizzle respectively by 12z and linger
through 19z before winds shift to the west with a gradual
improvement in cigs and vsbys then thru 00z/25 with skies SKC by
00z/25.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240851
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early this morning, water vapor imagery showed moisture from the
advancing mid-level trough focused along the lee-side of the
Rockies.  At the surface, low pressure was centered over the
Oklahoma panhandle with an associated warm front stretching along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. A weak passing vort max combined with
some isentropic lift helped to support shower and thunderstorm
activity early this morning along the Kansas/Nebraska border. A
southwesterly low-level jet will continue to advance eastward across
southeast Kansas this morning, resulting in warm-air advection
occurring over the warm front which was increasing the coverage of
the shower and thunderstorm activity across east central and
southeast Kansas. Short-range models show these storms skimming
across the far southeast corner of the CWA this morning, in which
some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.

Models show the negatively-tilted mid-level trough advancing
eastward across the region today and exiting to the east by this
evening. A strong vort max will be present with this advancing
trough axis along with a decent amount of lift. However, model
soundings show the saturation depth decreasing this morning and
becoming more shallow, with a saturation depth up to around
750-800mb.  As a result, short-range models show some widely
scattered precipitation developing ahead of the approaching trough
with some periods of drizzle possible. The environment should
remained capped across much of the CWA through today with model
soundings showing some periods of elevated instability. As a result,
expect some scattered thunderstorms to develop throughout the day,
however these storms should remain below severe limits.  As the
trough axis moves through the area, expect these showers and
thunderstorms to exit from west to east through the afternoon hours
with dry conditions by this evening. Models show low clouds hovering
over the region through much of the day, gradually scattering out
during the afternoon and evening hours. With these overcast skies in
place, have dropped high temperatures for today by a couple of
degrees with readings ranging from the upper 40s northeast to the
low/mid 60s west and south. However, if the cloud cover is able to
scatter out sooner in the afternoon, then temperatures across north
central and portions of east central Kansas may be slightly higher.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, cooled overnight low
temperatures a bit more with lows in the mid 30s north to low 40s
south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Early Wednesday morning a surface low is forecast to be in far
southwest Kansas with a warm front extending east across northern
Oklahoma. Further north a cold front will be located across Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. An upper level trough will progress out of the
Rockies on Wednesday and move across the Plains. The cold front will
move southeast across the forecast area through the day. During the
morning some light showers will be possible across the western half
of the CWA as moisture surges north in return flow. By afternoon
the front will move to near I-35 by mid afternoon. Models suggest
convection may fire in the late afternoon when cooling aloft with
the advance of the upper trough and instability in place across
southeast Kansas. Models place the cold front by 00Z along the I-44
corridor then progress it southeast quickly through the night. The
upper trough axis moves through the CWA by 12Z Thursday. Ended the
precipitation chances after 06Z Thursday. However this will be short
lived as another wave on the back side of the broad upper trough
moves southeast across the Plains and brings a chance of showers in
the afternoon to the north central Kansas counties then a chance of
rain and snow across the rest of the area Thursday night. Models
show large scale forcing for ascent and mid to upper level
frontogenesis setting up to increase confidence and have increased
precipitation chances accordingly. Another wave will move southeast
quickly Friday evening and night and could squeeze out some showers
during the evening before the lift and Q-vector convergence and
850-500 mb frontogenetic forcing moves east into Missouri.
The rest of the forecast remains dry Saturday through Monday. A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday will bring another cool front south across Kansas on
Sunday. Temperatures will start out in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
with 40s and 50s for highs Thursday and Friday before warming back
up in return flow Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal are
expected on Monday. Lows will drop to near or below freezing
Thursday morning through Saturday morning before warming back into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Moisture will continue to surge northward with mvfr cigs and
vsbys in showers and thunderstorms developing in all terminals
in the 06-08z timeframe. Cigs and vsbys will then lower to
IFR/MVFR in fog and drizzle respectively by 12z and linger
through 19z before winds shift to the west with a gradual
improvement in cigs and vsbys then thru 00z/25 with skies SKC by
00z/25.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







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