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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.

The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.

A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.

A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.

Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.

The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.

A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.

A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.

Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 192340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected. Minor wind shear concerns in the 04-14Z
period with SSW winds near 40kt possible at all sites. Chances for
convection increase late in the period but too low confidence on
where and when it would be for mention at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected. Minor wind shear concerns in the 04-14Z
period with SSW winds near 40kt possible at all sites. Chances for
convection increase late in the period but too low confidence on
where and when it would be for mention at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 192058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 192058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 191723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 191723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191114
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as south winds increase above 10 kts
sustained aft 14Z. Sustained speeds between 16 and 20 kts with
gusts in upwards of 27 kts are seen during the afternoon period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 190833
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 190833
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65









000
FXUS63 KTOP 190449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 182317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. SE winds back off a bit to start but
should be enough mixing and RH low enough to keep FU and BR in
check. Gusty winds on track to return in the 14-15Z window.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. SE winds back off a bit to start but
should be enough mixing and RH low enough to keep FU and BR in
check. Gusty winds on track to return in the 14-15Z window.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 181123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Patchy dense fog at KTOP will reduce visibilities between LIFR and
MVFR through 14Z. KMHK has remained at IFR through the evening and
will maintain visibility trend through 15Z before surface mixing
dissipates the fog. KFOE is observing MVFR conditions due to the
shallow fog expected through 14Z. Winds will be slow to increase
over KTOP/KFOE with haze lingering through 18Z when south winds
increase at or above 10 kts. KMHK may gust over 20 kts aft 18Z
through 01Z. KTOP and KFOE should see weakening wind speeds after
00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 181123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Patchy dense fog at KTOP will reduce visibilities between LIFR and
MVFR through 14Z. KMHK has remained at IFR through the evening and
will maintain visibility trend through 15Z before surface mixing
dissipates the fog. KFOE is observing MVFR conditions due to the
shallow fog expected through 14Z. Winds will be slow to increase
over KTOP/KFOE with haze lingering through 18Z when south winds
increase at or above 10 kts. KMHK may gust over 20 kts aft 18Z
through 01Z. KTOP and KFOE should see weakening wind speeds after
00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 180805
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Expect smoke from prairie fires to impact terminals through
sunrise. Will carry reduced VSBY and improve around 15Z. Winds
increase slightly and shift more southerly Friday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 180434
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Expect smoke from prairie fires to impact terminals through
sunrise. Will carry reduced visby and improve around 15z. Winds
increase slightly and shift more southerly Friday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 180434
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Expect smoke from prairie fires to impact terminals through
sunrise. Will carry reduced visby and improve around 15z. Winds
increase slightly and shift more southerly Friday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 180109
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
809 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 807 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Continued smoke from area rangeland burning is settling as mixing
diminishes and bringing visbys down at all taf sites. Will keep as
3sm MVFR for MHK where advection of more smoke is possible...with
4-5sm farther east where fewer burns to the east have lower
impact.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 172314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds light overnight
and pick up a southeasterly component with time. Slowly increase
above 12kts for MHK in the afternoon but will not add to taf line
this far out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 172314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds light overnight
and pick up a southeasterly component with time. Slowly increase
above 12kts for MHK in the afternoon but will not add to taf line
this far out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 172051
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR ceilings have shifted to the southeast of the TAF sites.
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Skies will become
clear tonight as winds become light and variable. Winds will
become southeast and south after sunrise Friday and increase to 6
to 10 KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 172051
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

An upper level trough was moving east-southeast across the southern
plains this afternoon. The more intense PV anomaly if progged to
move southeast across northern and eastern OK this afternoon and
evening. Also, the deeper moisture was located across central and
northern TX...south of a stationary front along the Red River
Valley. An area of light rain was located along and south of I-35
this afternoon. A combination of weak ascent and residual moisture
will provide a chance for very light rain across the southeast
counties of the CWA through 600 PM.

Tonight...a surface ridge of high pressure will build southeast
across the CWA. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling...allowing overnight lows across the eastern
counties of the CWA to dip down into the lower to middle 30s.
Dewpoint temperatures may only be 1 to 3 degrees cooler then the
ambient temperatures...thus scattered front may develop after 200
AM across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 30s about an hours after sunrise. Southerly
winds will increase to 5 to 10 MPH across the western counties of
the CWA during the early morning hours of Friday...thus frost should
not form in the western one third of the CWA. Due to the potential
for scattered frost formation and for some low-lying areas to dip
down to 32 degrees, I will issue a frost advisory for the eastern
third of the CWA...generally along and east of a Herington...to
Abilene...to Clay Center...to Washington line.

Friday...An upper level ridge across the western US will move east
over the plains. A lee surface trough will deepen and the surface
winds will become southerly and increase through the afternoon
hours. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 MPH across the
western counties with gusts up to 40 MPH by afternoon...with 15 to
20 MPH southerly winds across the eastern counties. Highs will reach
the upper 60s to lower 70s with good WAA. We may see enough
sfc/850mb moisture advection to prevent surface dewpoints from
mixing out into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Given the
stronger southerly winds and RH`s in the upper 20 to lower 30
percent range, there will be a very high rangeland fire danger
across much of the CWA Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday night through Monday...

Good mixing is still expected to persist through Friday night and
should help to maintain warmer temperatures...especially in the
northwest half of the county warning area (cwa) where readings in
the low to mid 50s are expected.

Precipitation chances continue low and limited to after 4 pm over
mainly the far northwest counties in north central Kansas.  With the
system fcst to slow from previous runs and the drier air remaining
in place across the eastern cwa beyond midnight...have slowed the
eastward progression of any convection into the eastern counties
until after midnight and lowered to slight chance. Will however
maintain likely pops across the north central through the night
as moisture/instability and lift will be slow to spread eastward
across the cwa. Models continue in good agreement that moisture and
some instability for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
increase eastward on Sunday as the upper trough advances out into
the central plains through the day before starting to exit the cwa
early Monday. Will therefore maintain high end chance pops through
Sunday night before decreasing northwest to southeast across the cwa
on Monday as the trough exits to the southeast. Will maintain highs
in the lower 70s for both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be more
extensive on Sunday than the afternoon hours on Monday but the
offsetting factor will be the north winds behind the front for
Monday.

Tuesday: a broad longwave trough makes its exit out of our CWA. Some
leftover showers could linger into early Tuesday, particularly in our
southeastern most counties. However, things should clear out by the
afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. The remainder of
Tuesday should be dry.

Wednesday and Thursday: the ECMWF and GFS models are both progging a
strong mid-latitude cyclone to develop over Montana. An associated warm
front should bring very warm temps to the region, with highs
reaching into the lower 80s. These warm temperatures, coupled with
abundant moisture from southerly winds should be conducive of
showers and even thunderstorms. The ECMWF is progging CAPE values ~1400
J/kg along the western edge of the CWA, indicating sufficient
instability for convection. Convective initiation timing and location
are still uncertain ATTM due to model discrepancy. As the
mid-latitude cyclone translates closer to the region, a cold front
is progged to develop, which could concentrate CI along the boundary.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR ceilings have shifted to the southeast of the TAF sites.
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Skies will become
clear tonight as winds become light and variable. Winds will
become southeast and south after sunrise Friday and increase to 6
to 10 KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 171751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the shortwave trough axis
from New Mexico through southeast Colorado into western Kansas.
Enhanced lift ahead of the wave has resulted in light rain and
drizzle over western and central Kansas. Across northeast Kansas,
the surface trough that carried gusty north winds through the
evening continues to push east as high pressure and drier air settles
southward, weakening winds below 10 mph. Temperatures remain mild in
the upper 30s due to high clouds and a mixed surface layer.

As the main upper trough slides southeast into Oklahoma today, a
weaker secondary shortwave trough brings an enhanced area of forcing
over northeast Kansas. Very dry air below 800 mb will be difficult
to overcome for most of the area. However, weak 800-700 MB
frontogenetical forcing seen on cross sections over east central
areas, combined with just enough moisture for light showers to
develop. Mid term guidance is maintaining its previous trends with
showers, and perhaps drizzle, reaching as far north as Interstate 70
by 18Z while the NAM/RAP/HRRR/SREF maintain measurable precip over
far east central Kansas. Have sided closer to short term high res
models and adjusted rain chances to slight near Interstate 70 while
placing highest confidence of measurable rainfall south of the KS
Turnpike. Unfortunately, the lack of deep moisture will only result
in a few hundredths QPF at best.

Temperatures vary on location today as the subsidence brings
sunshine to north central Kansas during the early afternoon. They
are the warmest with highs in the upper 50s. Denser cloud cover and
light showers will cool highs to the low 50s over northeast and east
central areas. Highs may be even cooler dependent on the
precipitation/cloud coverage.

Chilly and mostly clear tonight with light and variable winds
underneath the ridge. With the high pressure centered just to our east
in MO, have opted to cool overnight lows a few degrees into the
lower 30s (just above the freezing mark).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday into Saturday will be a warming period as south winds and
warm advection return to the area quickly on the heels of today`s
trough. Friday afternoon could be another period of hazardous fire
weather in north central KS as winds once again increase before
moisture advection can get into full swing. It will also depend upon
the quality of mixing in the area and the overall airmass should not
be quite as dry as some recent dry days...but still worth paying
close attention. Saturday will be warmer and windier yet, but expect
dewpoints to increase markedly into the 50s, easing fire weather
hazards.

By late Saturday, a cold front will likely extend from northwest KS
into eastern NE, and should become nearly stalled overnight. A broad
upper trough will also be moving across the southern Rockies, and
will begin to see height falls across the area by late Saturday
associated with this feature. Low level convergence along the front
will be quite strong with a weakening cap and 1000 J/kg or so of
MLCAPE in north central KS. Expect convection to initiate along the
frontal zone by early evening. The primary uncertainty with this
forecast is in the location of the frontal zone by late Saturday as
areas near the front are likely to have precipitation while most
others will not. The best chances now appear to be northwest of
Concordia, although could see some changes. While modest CAPE will
be present, wind shear is forecast to be weak, and severe weather
seems unlikely at this point. After midnight, weak elevated
instability develops amidst low level isentropic ascent across much
of the forecast area, and may be sufficient for scattered showers or
thunderstorms to develop, although there is not a great focusing
mechanism outside of the frontal boundary which should still be in
north central KS.

The broad southern trough gradually moves across the Plains through
Monday, providing a prolonged period of modest precip chances across
much of the area through early Monday. Instability is forecast to
develop on Sunday afternoon but again with minimal shear so
thunderstorms appear possible but severe weather quite unlikely.
Despite a long period of POPs, precip amounts are not expected to be
particularly impressive as forcing with this trough is rather weak.
The exception would be if thunderstorms could develop with slow
motion given light mid level winds.

Will see another warming trend through Wednesday as upper ridging
builds in advance of the next storm system. Models are consistent in
bringing a deep trough onto the west coast by late Tuesday with a
prolonged period of moisture advection across the Plains states in
advance of the system. Currently see discrepancies in trough timing
as it enters the Plains, but it currently appears that ingredients
may come together somewhere across the central Plains for a severe
weather event...possibly locally. There are also some potential
limiting factors evident that keep this rather uncertain,
particularly the likelihood of a strong EML/Cap that could limit
convective development entirely. For now, have thunderstorm chances
in the forecast by Wednesday and will need to keep an eye on the
Wed/Thur time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR ceilings have shifted to the southeast of the TAF sites.
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Skies will become
clear tonight as winds become light and variable. Winds will
become southeast and south after sunrise Friday and increase to 6
to 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the shortwave trough axis
from New Mexico through southeast Colorado into western Kansas.
Enhanced lift ahead of the wave has resulted in light rain and
drizzle over western and central Kansas. Across northeast Kansas,
the surface trough that carried gusty north winds through the
evening continues to push east as high pressure and drier air settles
southward, weakening winds below 10 mph. Temperatures remain mild in
the upper 30s due to high clouds and a mixed surface layer.

As the main upper trough slides southeast into Oklahoma today, a
weaker secondary shortwave trough brings an enhanced area of forcing
over northeast Kansas. Very dry air below 800 mb will be difficult
to overcome for most of the area. However, weak 800-700 MB
frontogenetical forcing seen on cross sections over east central
areas, combined with just enough moisture for light showers to
develop. Mid term guidance is maintaining its previous trends with
showers, and perhaps drizzle, reaching as far north as Interstate 70
by 18Z while the NAM/RAP/HRRR/SREF maintain measurable precip over
far east central Kansas. Have sided closer to short term high res
models and adjusted rain chances to slight near Interstate 70 while
placing highest confidence of measurable rainfall south of the KS
Turnpike. Unfortunately, the lack of deep moisture will only result
in a few hundredths QPF at best.

Temperatures vary on location today as the subsidence brings
sunshine to north central Kansas during the early afternoon. They
are the warmest with highs in the upper 50s. Denser cloud cover and
light showers will cool highs to the low 50s over northeast and east
central areas. Highs may be even cooler dependent on the
precipitation/cloud coverage.

Chilly and mostly clear tonight with light and variable winds
underneath the ridge. With the high pressure centered just to our east
in MO, have opted to cool overnight lows a few degrees into the
lower 30s (just above the freezing mark).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday into Saturday will be a warming period as south winds and
warm advection return to the area quickly on the heels of today`s
trough. Friday afternoon could be another period of hazardous fire
weather in north central KS as winds once again increase before
moisture advection can get into full swing. It will also depend upon
the quality of mixing in the area and the overall airmass should not
be quite as dry as some recent dry days...but still worth paying
close attention. Saturday will be warmer and windier yet, but expect
dewpoints to increase markedly into the 50s, easing fire weather
hazards.

By late Saturday, a cold front will likely extend from northwest KS
into eastern NE, and should become nearly stalled overnight. A broad
upper trough will also be moving across the southern Rockies, and
will begin to see height falls across the area by late Saturday
associated with this feature. Low level convergence along the front
will be quite strong with a weakening cap and 1000 J/kg or so of
MLCAPE in north central KS. Expect convection to initiate along the
frontal zone by early evening. The primary uncertainty with this
forecast is in the location of the frontal zone by late Saturday as
areas near the front are likely to have precipitation while most
others will not. The best chances now appear to be northwest of
Concordia, although could see some changes. While modest CAPE will
be present, wind shear is forecast to be weak, and severe weather
seems unlikely at this point. After midnight, weak elevated
instability develops amidst low level isentropic ascent across much
of the forecast area, and may be sufficient for scattered showers or
thunderstorms to develop, although there is not a great focusing
mechanism outside of the frontal boundary which should still be in
north central KS.

The broad southern trough gradually moves across the Plains through
Monday, providing a prolonged period of modest precip chances across
much of the area through early Monday. Instability is forecast to
develop on Sunday afternoon but again with minimal shear so
thunderstorms appear possible but severe weather quite unlikely.
Despite a long period of POPs, precip amounts are not expected to be
particularly impressive as forcing with this trough is rather weak.
The exception would be if thunderstorms could develop with slow
motion given light mid level winds.

Will see another warming trend through Wednesday as upper ridging
builds in advance of the next storm system. Models are consistent in
bringing a deep trough onto the west coast by late Tuesday with a
prolonged period of moisture advection across the Plains states in
advance of the system. Currently see discrepancies in trough timing
as it enters the Plains, but it currently appears that ingredients
may come together somewhere across the central Plains for a severe
weather event...possibly locally. There are also some potential
limiting factors evident that keep this rather uncertain,
particularly the likelihood of a strong EML/Cap that could limit
convective development entirely. For now, have thunderstorm chances
in the forecast by Wednesday and will need to keep an eye on the
Wed/Thur time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SCT to BKN band of 2 KFT MVFR stratus observed just to the north
and east of KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Short term guidance is also picking up
on the lower cigs impacting terminals through 14Z where a Tempo
group was inserted. VFR prevails thereafter as northwest winds veer
to the northeast decreasing below 10 kts through the afternoon.
Light showers are possible near KTOP/KFOE aft 18Z where a VCSH was
inserted. Confidence is low of showers impacting sites with the
best chances over southeast Kansas. High pressure aft 00Z clears
skies as winds become light from the east and southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the shortwave trough axis
from New Mexico through southeast Colorado into western Kansas.
Enhanced lift ahead of the wave has resulted in light rain and
drizzle over western and central Kansas. Across northeast Kansas,
the surface trough that carried gusty north winds through the
evening continues to push east as high pressure and drier air settles
southward, weakening winds below 10 mph. Temperatures remain mild in
the upper 30s due to high clouds and a mixed surface layer.

As the main upper trough slides southeast into Oklahoma today, a
weaker secondary shortwave trough brings an enhanced area of forcing
over northeast Kansas. Very dry air below 800 mb will be difficult
to overcome for most of the area. However, weak 800-700 MB
frontogenetical forcing seen on cross sections over east central
areas, combined with just enough moisture for light showers to
develop. Mid term guidance is maintaining its previous trends with
showers, and perhaps drizzle, reaching as far north as Interstate 70
by 18Z while the NAM/RAP/HRRR/SREF maintain measurable precip over
far east central Kansas. Have sided closer to short term high res
models and adjusted rain chances to slight near Interstate 70 while
placing highest confidence of measurable rainfall south of the KS
Turnpike. Unfortunately, the lack of deep moisture will only result
in a few hundredths QPF at best.

Temperatures vary on location today as the subsidence brings
sunshine to north central Kansas during the early afternoon. They
are the warmest with highs in the upper 50s. Denser cloud cover and
light showers will cool highs to the low 50s over northeast and east
central areas. Highs may be even cooler dependent on the
precipitation/cloud coverage.

Chilly and mostly clear tonight with light and variable winds
underneath the ridge. With the high pressure centered just to our east
in MO, have opted to cool overnight lows a few degrees into the
lower 30s (just above the freezing mark).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Friday into Saturday will be a warming period as south winds and
warm advection return to the area quickly on the heels of today`s
trough. Friday afternoon could be another period of hazardous fire
weather in north central KS as winds once again increase before
moisture advection can get into full swing. It will also depend upon
the quality of mixing in the area and the overall airmass should not
be quite as dry as some recent dry days...but still worth paying
close attention. Saturday will be warmer and windier yet, but expect
dewpoints to increase markedly into the 50s, easing fire weather
hazards.

By late Saturday, a cold front will likely extend from northwest KS
into eastern NE, and should become nearly stalled overnight. A broad
upper trough will also be moving across the southern Rockies, and
will begin to see height falls across the area by late Saturday
associated with this feature. Low level convergence along the front
will be quite strong with a weakening cap and 1000 J/kg or so of
MLCAPE in north central KS. Expect convection to initiate along the
frontal zone by early evening. The primary uncertainty with this
forecast is in the location of the frontal zone by late Saturday as
areas near the front are likely to have precipitation while most
others will not. The best chances now appear to be northwest of
Concordia, although could see some changes. While modest CAPE will
be present, wind shear is forecast to be weak, and severe weather
seems unlikely at this point. After midnight, weak elevated
instability develops amidst low level isentropic ascent across much
of the forecast area, and may be sufficient for scattered showers or
thunderstorms to develop, although there is not a great focusing
mechanism outside of the frontal boundary which should still be in
north central KS.

The broad southern trough gradually moves across the Plains through
Monday, providing a prolonged period of modest precip chances across
much of the area through early Monday. Instability is forecast to
develop on Sunday afternoon but again with minimal shear so
thunderstorms appear possible but severe weather quite unlikely.
Despite a long period of POPs, precip amounts are not expected to be
particularly impressive as forcing with this trough is rather weak.
The exception would be if thunderstorms could develop with slow
motion given light mid level winds.

Will see another warming trend through Wednesday as upper ridging
builds in advance of the next storm system. Models are consistent in
bringing a deep trough onto the west coast by late Tuesday with a
prolonged period of moisture advection across the Plains states in
advance of the system. Currently see discrepancies in trough timing
as it enters the Plains, but it currently appears that ingredients
may come together somewhere across the central Plains for a severe
weather event...possibly locally. There are also some potential
limiting factors evident that keep this rather uncertain,
particularly the likelihood of a strong EML/Cap that could limit
convective development entirely. For now, have thunderstorm chances
in the forecast by Wednesday and will need to keep an eye on the
Wed/Thur time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SCT to BKN band of 2 KFT MVFR stratus observed just to the north
and east of KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Short term guidance is also picking up
on the lower cigs impacting terminals through 14Z where a Tempo
group was inserted. VFR prevails thereafter as northwest winds veer
to the northeast decreasing below 10 kts through the afternoon.
Light showers are possible near KTOP/KFOE aft 18Z where a VCSH was
inserted. Confidence is low of showers impacting sites with the
best chances over southeast Kansas. High pressure aft 00Z clears
skies as winds become light from the east and southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen








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