Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KTOP 240834
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

After a round of moderate rain over the area, several mainstream
rivers are rising and forecast to flood in the southeast portions of
the forecast area. Flooding also continues in those counties as
widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches fell across the area.

Precipitation chances in a lull in the early morning hours, before
the next wave in the flow begins to increase precipitation chances
from south to north late this morning into the afternoon hours.
Stronger wave over the Big Bend area of Texas lifts northeastward
and moves into the area for the evening hours, and current thinking
is heavier precipitation would fall late afternoon and into the
evening, and primarily across the eastern portions of the forecast
area.  Another 1-2 inches of rain are forecast in heavier bands,
with locally higher amounts possible. Subsiding air behind the
departing stronger wave could bring rain to an end from south to
north across eastern Kansas by shortly after midnight, and have
tapered off rain chances as such. Kept high temperatures on the cool
side in the lower 70s and went slightly cooler on lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

By Monday morning the shortwave responsible for today`s rainfall
will be lifting into the upper Midwest leaving southwest flow aloft
in it`s wake. The next shortwave is forecast to eject over the
region late Monday, while another wave passes over the southern
plains. Lapse rates will steepen as en EML spreads eastward over the
area out ahead of the wave. A boundary will be present across
western and central KS possibly accompanied by a weak surface low
pressure. The morning should be relatively quiet with only slight
chances for light rain showers. During the afternoon and evening the
wave will lift over the boundary where isolated to scattered storms
will be possible. Cape should increase significantly during the day
especially if the clouds begin to scatter out. Deep layer shear
looks marginal at best with a weakness in the mid level winds. The
main uncertainty is will the forcing and convergence along the
boundary be enough to initiate storms. Models are also hinting at
deeper mixing in western KS, which could lead to possible dry
punches in central KS. These could also be locations for surface
convergence and storm development once the cap weakens. Either way
if storms do develop there is a chance they could be strong to
severe given the high instability, but will probably not be well
organized. As of now the better chances for precip appear to be
north central KS during the late afternoon and evening hours.

That shortwave will continue to lift northeastward Monday night and
into Tuesday morning. There are some timing issues among the models
therefore have kept some rain chances during the day Tuesday. The
forecast then becomes somewhat tricky to pin down precip timing as
the large scale flow weakens and small shortwaves traverse across
the center of the country. This west to southwest flow will persist
through late week. It is unlikely that we will be dealing with any
widespread heavy rain events similar to this weekend given this
expected pattern. A few more pronounced shortwaves lift out of
the Rockies late week, which could bring better chances for precip
next weekend. An actual front may come through as these waves
progress eastward to allow for a dry period early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240834
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

After a round of moderate rain over the area, several mainstream
rivers are rising and forecast to flood in the southeast portions of
the forecast area. Flooding also continues in those counties as
widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches fell across the area.

Precipitation chances in a lull in the early morning hours, before
the next wave in the flow begins to increase precipitation chances
from south to north late this morning into the afternoon hours.
Stronger wave over the Big Bend area of Texas lifts northeastward
and moves into the area for the evening hours, and current thinking
is heavier precipitation would fall late afternoon and into the
evening, and primarily across the eastern portions of the forecast
area.  Another 1-2 inches of rain are forecast in heavier bands,
with locally higher amounts possible. Subsiding air behind the
departing stronger wave could bring rain to an end from south to
north across eastern Kansas by shortly after midnight, and have
tapered off rain chances as such. Kept high temperatures on the cool
side in the lower 70s and went slightly cooler on lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

By Monday morning the shortwave responsible for today`s rainfall
will be lifting into the upper Midwest leaving southwest flow aloft
in it`s wake. The next shortwave is forecast to eject over the
region late Monday, while another wave passes over the southern
plains. Lapse rates will steepen as en EML spreads eastward over the
area out ahead of the wave. A boundary will be present across
western and central KS possibly accompanied by a weak surface low
pressure. The morning should be relatively quiet with only slight
chances for light rain showers. During the afternoon and evening the
wave will lift over the boundary where isolated to scattered storms
will be possible. Cape should increase significantly during the day
especially if the clouds begin to scatter out. Deep layer shear
looks marginal at best with a weakness in the mid level winds. The
main uncertainty is will the forcing and convergence along the
boundary be enough to initiate storms. Models are also hinting at
deeper mixing in western KS, which could lead to possible dry
punches in central KS. These could also be locations for surface
convergence and storm development once the cap weakens. Either way
if storms do develop there is a chance they could be strong to
severe given the high instability, but will probably not be well
organized. As of now the better chances for precip appear to be
north central KS during the late afternoon and evening hours.

That shortwave will continue to lift northeastward Monday night and
into Tuesday morning. There are some timing issues among the models
therefore have kept some rain chances during the day Tuesday. The
forecast then becomes somewhat tricky to pin down precip timing as
the large scale flow weakens and small shortwaves traverse across
the center of the country. This west to southwest flow will persist
through late week. It is unlikely that we will be dealing with any
widespread heavy rain events similar to this weekend given this
expected pattern. A few more pronounced shortwaves lift out of
the Rockies late week, which could bring better chances for precip
next weekend. An actual front may come through as these waves
progress eastward to allow for a dry period early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...GDP








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240604
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240604
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240604
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240604
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Areas of rain showers will continue through the night with TOP and
FOE having the best chance of restricted visibilities in rain and
fog. There may be a break during the late morning or early
afternoon and then another chance of thunderstorms will occur
later in the day. Conditions will be MVRF with periods of IFR in
lower ceilings or visibilities with the heavier showers.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240059
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short term trends and some of the latest model runs show back edge
of precipitation likely staying out of north central KS for
awhile, so have decreased POPs in that area. Thunder will also be
most likely isolated, and mostly concentrated in the far east.
There will be a sustained period of at least moderate rain in the
east, mainly east of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Marysville. Precipitation efficiency is high, and rainfall rates
up to an inch an hour have been observed from some of the heavier
cores. Another shortwave appears to be enhancing convection in
west TX and that could come up later tonight with another bout of
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Periods of rain, occasionally moderate to heavy will continue at
TOP and FOE throughout the night. This should keep things in the
MVFR range with IFR visibilities in heavier rain. At MHK, precip
should be lighter for the most part and it will likely be VFR
until low-level stratus comes in later tonight. MHK could also
have gusty east winds on the west side of precip area. On Sunday,
there may be a break late morning to mid afternoon before another
chance of rain and thunderstorms come in later in the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240059
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short term trends and some of the latest model runs show back edge
of precipitation likely staying out of north central KS for
awhile, so have decreased POPs in that area. Thunder will also be
most likely isolated, and mostly concentrated in the far east.
There will be a sustained period of at least moderate rain in the
east, mainly east of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Marysville. Precipitation efficiency is high, and rainfall rates
up to an inch an hour have been observed from some of the heavier
cores. Another shortwave appears to be enhancing convection in
west TX and that could come up later tonight with another bout of
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Periods of rain, occasionally moderate to heavy will continue at
TOP and FOE throughout the night. This should keep things in the
MVFR range with IFR visibilities in heavier rain. At MHK, precip
should be lighter for the most part and it will likely be VFR
until low-level stratus comes in later tonight. MHK could also
have gusty east winds on the west side of precip area. On Sunday,
there may be a break late morning to mid afternoon before another
chance of rain and thunderstorms come in later in the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240059
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short term trends and some of the latest model runs show back edge
of precipitation likely staying out of north central KS for
awhile, so have decreased POPs in that area. Thunder will also be
most likely isolated, and mostly concentrated in the far east.
There will be a sustained period of at least moderate rain in the
east, mainly east of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Marysville. Precipitation efficiency is high, and rainfall rates
up to an inch an hour have been observed from some of the heavier
cores. Another shortwave appears to be enhancing convection in
west TX and that could come up later tonight with another bout of
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Periods of rain, occasionally moderate to heavy will continue at
TOP and FOE throughout the night. This should keep things in the
MVFR range with IFR visibilities in heavier rain. At MHK, precip
should be lighter for the most part and it will likely be VFR
until low-level stratus comes in later tonight. MHK could also
have gusty east winds on the west side of precip area. On Sunday,
there may be a break late morning to mid afternoon before another
chance of rain and thunderstorms come in later in the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240059
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Short term trends and some of the latest model runs show back edge
of precipitation likely staying out of north central KS for
awhile, so have decreased POPs in that area. Thunder will also be
most likely isolated, and mostly concentrated in the far east.
There will be a sustained period of at least moderate rain in the
east, mainly east of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Marysville. Precipitation efficiency is high, and rainfall rates
up to an inch an hour have been observed from some of the heavier
cores. Another shortwave appears to be enhancing convection in
west TX and that could come up later tonight with another bout of
moderate to heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Periods of rain, occasionally moderate to heavy will continue at
TOP and FOE throughout the night. This should keep things in the
MVFR range with IFR visibilities in heavier rain. At MHK, precip
should be lighter for the most part and it will likely be VFR
until low-level stratus comes in later tonight. MHK could also
have gusty east winds on the west side of precip area. On Sunday,
there may be a break late morning to mid afternoon before another
chance of rain and thunderstorms come in later in the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...GDP








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232057
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The next 24 hours is a very tricky forecast period. Bottom line is
all terminals will experience IFR GIGS at times generally
beginning mid-afternoon today. IFR VIS is not out of the question
as precipitation picks up later tonight. Don`t think an extended
period of rainfall is out of the question, which is why showers
stay in the forecast. The possibility of a period of thunderstorms
in the local areas does set up this evening with the better window
for instability. Very late in the forecast period, the conditions
should begin to show some improvement, but have chosen to not add
another line in for now as this will be the very tail end of the
forecast period and will need further evaluation at the next
forecast update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232057
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Flooding concerns remain front and center for the next 36 hours.
Although mesoscale influences will dictate who receives the
greatest amounts of rainfall it still appears that areas roughly
along and southeast of a Emporia to Topeka line will see
widespread 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
tonight through Sunday as moisture transport is maximized tonight
throughout the area within a environment characterized by PWATs of
1.5 to 1.75". 850mb winds of 40-50kts will be rather uniform
across the region with no obvious signs of a boundary at this time
however there are signals that a weak wave/meso element across OK
could enhance convection and rainfall rates along/east of the
turnpike tonight. The more obvious waves will arrive Sunday which
should act to back winds and support another round of heavy rains
across the eastern third of the area or roughly along and east of
highway 75. MUCAPE is fcst to remain modest AOB 500j/kg tonight however
given warm rain process and moisture transport rain will still be
locally heavy with training expected.

Have expanded the flood watch area to include Geary, Riley,
Pottawatomie and Nemaha counties given ongoing convection and
continued trend of short range models to shift axis of heavy rains
a bit further NW.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Have increased precip chances/amounts somewhat Sunday evening with
somewhat slower trend of ECMWF and GFS Ensembles, though at this
point amounts look low, but by this time small amounts could keep
flooding going and keeping the Watch through Sunday night. Differences in
the handling of the stronger/larger scale upper waves continue in
the latest models. The strongest feature still remains well south of
the area as it rotates northeast, with more spread in the weaker
wave passing through Nebraska Memorial Day and Monday night. Better
both lower and upper level forcing appears to stay to the northwest,
but in the weak overall flow and mean trough axis in place, will
keep chance PoPs going. Instability continues to look rather
impressive by mid afternoon with modest shear, giving rise to at
least some severe weather potential if storms can form.

Precip chances continue for much of the remainder of the week
continues. A weak surface trough sags in from the northwest for at
least small thunder chances again Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Though likely weak, isentropic upglide develops behind the
boundary  Wednesday into Wednesday night before the next slow moving
longwave trough approaches from the west. Moisture turn to the west
keeps chances going Thursday night with trough nearing and some
potential for a front to sag in around Friday night. Have the
highest chances in the latter periods with better overall forcing.
Overall weak flow should keep severe weather potential
climatologically low, and if repeated convection does occur the main
focus could again be flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The next 24 hours is a very tricky forecast period. Bottom line is
all terminals will experience IFR GIGS at times generally
beginning mid-afternoon today. IFR VIS is not out of the question
as precipitation picks up later tonight. Don`t think an extended
period of rainfall is out of the question, which is why showers
stay in the forecast. The possibility of a period of thunderstorms
in the local areas does set up this evening with the better window
for instability. Very late in the forecast period, the conditions
should begin to show some improvement, but have chosen to not add
another line in for now as this will be the very tail end of the
forecast period and will need further evaluation at the next
forecast update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 231734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The next 24 hours is a very tricky forecast period. Bottom line is
all terminals will experience IFR GIGS at times generally
beginning mid-afternoon today. IFR VIS is not out of the question
as precipitation picks up later tonight. Don`t think an extended
period of rainfall is out of the question, which is why showers
stay in the forecast. The possibility of a period of thunderstorms
in the local areas does set up this evening with the better window
for instability. Very late in the forecast period, the conditions
should begin to show some improvement, but have chosen to not add
another line in for now as this will be the very tail end of the
forecast period and will need further evaluation at the next
forecast update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
morning FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The next 24 hours is a very tricky forecast period. Bottom line is
all terminals will experience IFR GIGS at times generally
beginning mid-afternoon today. IFR VIS is not out of the question
as precipitation picks up later tonight. Don`t think an extended
period of rainfall is out of the question, which is why showers
stay in the forecast. The possibility of a period of thunderstorms
in the local areas does set up this evening with the better window
for instability. Very late in the forecast period, the conditions
should begin to show some improvement, but have chosen to not add
another line in for now as this will be the very tail end of the
forecast period and will need further evaluation at the next
forecast update.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
morning FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Cloud heights lowering this morning across the terminals but are
expected to rise back above 1000ft as daytime heating returns.
Isolated nature of showers today prompted VCSH, with stronger slug
of precipitation moving in around 0z and continuing through the
night. Easternmost terminals may bet rounds of heavy rainfall,
more likely late evening into early morning and tried to time this
with a tempo group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Cloud heights lowering this morning across the terminals but are
expected to rise back above 1000ft as daytime heating returns.
Isolated nature of showers today prompted VCSH, with stronger slug
of precipitation moving in around 0z and continuing through the
night. Easternmost terminals may bet rounds of heavy rainfall,
more likely late evening into early morning and tried to time this
with a tempo group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

Scattered rain showers moving over much of the eastern half of the
forecast area at this hour.  Stronger convection noted over eastern
New Mexico. Temperatures holding generally in the 50s as clouds
continue to increase.

Isolated to scattered showers expected through the morning hours.
Wave out over eastern NM progged to lift northeast, with short range
models bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern
KS in the afternoon.  Convection ramps up considerably in the
evening as moisture in the column increases, as does lift associated
with the incoming upper trof.  As lift continues to deepen in the
saturated layer, rain processes expected to become more efficient,
and will keep start of flash flood watch as is for Saturday
evening.  PoP chances also rise in the evening and overnight hours.
Some instability in the sounding so that thunder is possible but
keeping isolated at this time.  Highs Saturday forecast in the upper
60s, before more widespread rain comes in for the evening and
overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

On Sunday the mid/upper level low will still be located over
northern CO and southeastern WY, while waves of energy lift
northeastward over the southern and central plains. These waves
will provide additional rounds of lift and reinforce the moist
southerly flow from the gulf. The precipitable water values are
forecast to be around 1.5 to 1.75, which is nearly record numbers
for this time of year. Models show that an area of maximized
850-700 mb moisture convergence will track over eastern KS with
each wave. The moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning could cause the ground to
become well saturated in some locations. The next shortwave that
is forecast to track over eastern KS Sunday appears to keep the
threat for moderate to heavy rainfall around most of the daytime
hours. The mostly likely areas for heavy rainfall Sunday will be
east of a line from Council Grove to Hiawatha. Rainfall totals in
these areas could range from 2 to 4 inches. By Sunday evening the
more pronounced wave will lift northward into the upper Midwest.
This should end the flash flood threat, although river flooding
will likely begin to ramp up fairly quickly Sunday evening into
Monday.

The flow aloft behind that wave becomes more southwesterly bringing
drier air into the region. This should allow for a mostly dry period
Sunday night into Monday morning. On Monday models depict another
more pronounced wave rotating around the parent low that may lift
over NE and KS. The drier southwest flow aloft will allow the lapse
rates to steepen, while the increasing surface flow pumps higher dew
points northward ahead of a boundary in central KS/NE. This will
cause cape to increase significantly if dew points can reach the mid
to upper 60s. Deep layer shear also increases, but hodographs do
show a weakness in the mid level winds, which could disrupt storm
maintenance. The main concerns though will be if the cap can erode
either due to surface heating and or the wave lifting over the area,
and strength of the low level convergence along the boundary.
Therefore did not increase pops, but there is still a chance for
isolated to scattered storms, a few maybe strong to severe, could
develop along the boundary Monday afternoon or evening and move
eastward. The most likely areas to be affected by storms will be
north central KS. How these storms evolve and become supported
overnight is uncertain. West to southwest flow aloft persists into
the late week with at least some chance for additional thunderstorms
for most periods. A few shortwaves lift out of the Rockies late
week, which could bring better chances for precip next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230504
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230504
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230504
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230504
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR ceilings currently in place will gradually lower as low level
moisture approaches TAF sites from the southwest. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build in before 12Z with a decrease to IFR after 12Z.
See a good chance for a few hours of IFR cigs before gradually
lifting toward 1500 feet by around 17Z. Scattered light showers
will be possible almost any time after 09Z, with an area of
heavier rain and thunderstorms likely to impact TAF sites closer
to 00Z, possible bringing IFR conditions once again.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Monday morning FOR
KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial VFR conditions are likely to continue for several hours
although MVFR ceilings will gradually build in to TAF sites from
west to east. Expect cigs around 2500 feet initially, but building
down to around 1500 feet. Could see a period of IFR but believe
that clouds bases should remain mainly above 1000 feet. Showers
will also impact TAF sites with increasing coverage through the
day. Then a main area of heavier rain and thunderstorms is
expected after 21Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Initial VFR conditions are likely to continue for several hours
although MVFR ceilings will gradually build in to TAF sites from
west to east. Expect cigs around 2500 feet initially, but building
down to around 1500 feet. Could see a period of IFR but believe
that clouds bases should remain mainly above 1000 feet. Showers
will also impact TAF sites with increasing coverage through the
day. Then a main area of heavier rain and thunderstorms is
expected after 21Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 222047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 222047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light precipitation continue to move northeast from south central
Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon. Light returns on
regional associated with the upper level trough axis from south
central Nebraska into south central Kansas. A period of subsidence
behind the tough axis will move across much of northeast Kansas
early this evening. Moisture transport vectors increase overnight
across north central and east central Kansas along with weak
isentropic lift and have gone with 20 to 40 percent chances of light
rain showers. Toward Saturday morning a shortwave will move north
out of Oklahoma as the main upper trough moves slowly across the
Rockies. This will initially increase the upward vertical motion
across central Kansas then as the day progresses another lobe of
energy ejects out into eastern Kansas in the afternoon hours with
another on it heels in Oklahoma. Cape remains on the low side
through the morning hours on Saturday then increases to a around 400
to 600 J/kg in the afternoon with weak to marginal shear. Expect
precipitation efficiency to increase later in the afternoon with
moderate rainfall from mid afternoon onward as ascent increases
ahead of the second wave moving north out of Oklahoma. Therefore
have precipitation chances increasing through the day with very high
probability of precipitation in east central Kansas in the 80
percent to 90 percent range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Concern is rising for periods of moderate to heavy rain for the
middle portions of the holiday weekend. Models continue to be in
good agreement with the upper trough making slow eastward progress
into the central ConUS into Memorial Day with deep southerly flow
resulting from the local area south through Texas. Heavy rain making
its way east into Oklahoma Saturday continues northeast through the
night with another stronger few rounds into at least Sunday
afternoon as embedded waves rotate through. 850mb winds through
these periods are fairly consistently around 40kt (stronger than
earlier projections) with precipitable water levels rising to around
1.5" (near the 90th percentile of the local sounding climatology),
warm cloud depths around 3500m, and periods of 700-850mb moisture
convergence local to upstream of the area, all supporting efficient
rainfall production. Somewhat drier air works east into central
Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday, keeping southern and eastern
locations in the greater concern for the heavier amounts. Widespread
amounts here look to be in the 1.5-3" range with heavier amounts
expected, with local amounts over 5" possible. Although a few dry
periods have occurred recently, still rather saturated ground
conditions and elevated river levels bring flood potential. Still
appears the greater concern will be from longer-lived moderate to
heavy precip versus quick but intense rain bursts for a greater
potential river/stream flooding. Will go ahead with a Flash Flood
Watch with increasing confidence in heavy rain. Hard to pin down
when individual gauges could reach flood levels, and have the watch
through Monday morning at this point.

As the trough pushes east, slightly cooler air moves in aloft with
moist southerly flow persisting near the surface for rapidly
increasing instability and decent deep-layer wind shear Monday
afternoon. Models begin to show differences with stronger waves
still passing around the trough, and surface features show little
convergence.  Will keep chance PoPs going but will need to watch
this period into Monday evening for severe weather potential.

Moderate west to southwest flow persists into the late week with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms for most periods. At
this point the most likely dry periods look to be around Wednesday,
with longer wavelength troughing developing toward Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Saturday evening through Monday morning
FOR KSZ012-024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Light rain will continue to dissipate this afternoon. There have
been some very light sprinkles near KTOP/KFOE, but just
maintaining VCSH at this time since the impacts to the terminals
are expected to be minimal. Still VFR throughout the TAF period
with overcast CIGS more high based. The next period of showers is
low confidence on timing as they have yet to develop, but the
likely scenario will be early morning hours after 8z at KMHK and a
bit later near KTOP/KFOE. These should also clear out after only a
few hours from West to East and be largely over by 15z. Not
expected anything to cause less than VFR at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Made only slight adjustments to previous TAF issuance. Brought
rain in an hour sooner and added VCSh ahead of its arrival, and
along with the rain are some lower clouds and have added a sct
group for that. Still difficult to pinpoint highest focus for
precip chances beyond the first 6 hours or so and should be able
to refine overnight chances as timing draws closer..

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

Made only slight adjustments to previous TAF issuance. Brought
rain in an hour sooner and added VCSh ahead of its arrival, and
along with the rain are some lower clouds and have added a sct
group for that. Still difficult to pinpoint highest focus for
precip chances beyond the first 6 hours or so and should be able
to refine overnight chances as timing draws closer..

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220758
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220758
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A cool start to the day today as overnight lows have fallen into the
lower 50s for much of the area.  Eastern Kansas sees a return to
southerly winds today as surface high moves to the east and next
upper shortwave trof is on approach.  Wave noted in WV imagery over
Western Oklahoma progged to aid in increased rain chances as the day
goes on.  Observed sounding from last night and forecast soundings
off the NAM are relatively dry through the column, with PW values
around half an inch.  Much of the morning will be spent increasing
mid level moisture through the atmosphere, and spreading from west
to east and saturating from the top down with time as lift from the
wave increases. CAPE values remains low, and have kept precip
chances as rain at this time, and will monitor for any additional
wording for thunder.  Highs anticipated in the low 60s, with rain
continuing through the mid morning into the evening and overnight,
although expect breaks at times especially between the two shortwave
systems in the late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

On Saturday waves of energy begin to eject out of the southwest US
as the main trough lifts northeastward over the central Rockies.
Moisture surges northward as the low level flow becomes more
southerly out ahead of the system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms appear possible most of the day Saturday, although
the severe potential remains low since the instability will be
limited. Forcing increases late Saturday as most of the models
depict a complex of precip moving up from the southwest. This will
set the stage for a round of moderate to heavy rainfall during the
overnight hours. Pwats look to increase above 1.5 inches while the
850-700 mb moisture transport vectors maximize over eastern KS. The
models begin to struggle with how long this area of precip sticks
around on Sunday. The main problem seems to be the slow eastward
progression of the main mid/upper level low pressure as the upper
level jet continues to build the downstream ridge aloft. Although,
parts of central KS look to clear out during the day Sunday and end
up with the lowest amounts. The NAM depicts a freezing level around
12 kft with a warm cloud depth of around 11.5 kft. This means that
warm rain processes will be more efficient in squeezing this high
moisture content out of the air. Rainfall amounts today through
Sunday night appear to be between 1-4 inches with the highest
amounts in east central and southeast KS. With saturated ground and
elevated river levels, flooding continues to be the main concern.
There is a less potential for flash flooding, but it still remains
possible especially Saturday night into Sunday if storms can train
over the same areas.

On Monday the mid/upper level system tracks over the northern
plains and drags a boundary into central KS. Models are
indicating that instability will increase ahead of this boundary
as the cin decreases and more shortwaves lift northeastward over
the region. Deep layer shear becomes marginal during this time
frame so some severe storms could be possible. Ongoing morning
convection and the evolution of the shortwaves make it difficult
to pin down any specifics. Models then continue with the west to
southwest flow aloft through the week with several waves
progressing over the region. Some instability hangs around with a
weak cap in place although deep layer shear is basically non
existent, so do not expect any widespread severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch









000
FXUS63 KTOP 220501
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occurring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220501
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occurring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220501
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occurring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220501
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occurring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF. There is some small
potential for shallow fog before sunrise but believe high clouds
will limit fog development. There is a good chance for scattered
showers on Friday, but VFR conditions are still likely even within
rain showers as they should be light with ceilings above 5000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212302
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
602 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occuring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Scattered
showers will approach MHK around 16Z...and TOP/FOE closer to 19Z.
Likelihood of widespread or persistent rain at any site is low,
but scattered showers could continue through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212302
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
602 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occuring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Scattered
showers will approach MHK around 16Z...and TOP/FOE closer to 19Z.
Likelihood of widespread or persistent rain at any site is low,
but scattered showers could continue through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212035
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occuring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
light and variable becoming southeast around 8 kts after 15Z
Friday. SHRA are expected to move into the MHK terminal by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






000
FXUS63 KTOP 212035
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Surface high pressure was located over much of Kansas this
afternoon. Return flow on the back side of the high was relegated to
the western high plains. Shortwave energy rotating around the base
of the eastern Pacific trough this afternoon will move northeast
into the Central Plains later tonight and Friday morning. Models are
in fairly good agreement with the energy lifting across eastern
Kansas in the morning and afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show
increasing mid level moisture late tonight and into Friday west to
east. Showers will be rather light and go into saturating the lower
layers through the day. The surface and 850mb high will move off to
the east allowing for a return of moisture into Oklahoma and
southern Kansas in the morning then increasing northward through the
afternoon hours, especially across north central Kansas. Have
maintained the focus for precipitation across north central into
east central Kansas through the day with lower slight chances across
far northeast Kansas. Rainfall amounts will be light through the day
and am not expecting any runoff issues. Thunderstorm chances look
small with little or no CAPE through the afternoon hours expected,
although shear will be marginal, so will stay with showers attm.
Lows tonight in the mid and upper 40s with light winds and gradually
increasing cloud cover. Highs Friday in the 60s with clouds and
scattered precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Weak to moderate but fairly deep isentropic upglide sets up Friday
night. This allows for a steadily moistening column and a decent
setup for precip, with increasing trends through the night. Have
kept mid-range PoPs area-wide with no obvious area of focus. The
isentropic lift diminishes Saturday but increasing moisture with PWs
nearing 1.5" keeps moderate PoPs going. Instability continues to
look difficult to come by well into Saturday but enough for thunder
mention to ramp up with time. Main precip event looks to come
Saturday night into Sunday evening as the upper trough to the west
slides east. There is rather good agreement in a mesoscale
convective system maintaining itself as it comes northeast from west
Texas Saturday afternoon, aided by south 850mb winds around 30kt in
a rather wet atmosphere. There is also good agreement in the trough
producing another to a few rounds of convection Sunday into Sunday
evening with some training as well as and skinny and modest CAPE
potential. Have continued to raise PoPs for these periods. At this
point it appears the eastern half of the area will see the highest
precip in deeper moisture. With wet ground and elevated river
levels, flooding continues to be the main concern, perhaps more so
for rivers than flash flooding, but both types remain possible.

Medium range guidance agrees on west to southwest flow persisting
well into next week, but differ on how modest waves from the western
trough make their way east. There could be a weak boundary sinking
in around around Memorial Day for an increased and more focused
precip chance per the latest GFS, but overall scenario keeps chance
PoPs (only slightly above normal) going through the forecast with at
least lower levels remaining moist and little if any capping
occuring. Severe weather concern remains muted with low values of
both shear and instability parameters. Temps should continue to warm
however with more breaks in precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
light and variable becoming southeast around 8 kts after 15Z
Friday. SHRA are expected to move into the MHK terminal by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211756
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
light and variable becoming southeast around 8 kts after 15Z
Friday. SHRA are expected to move into the MHK terminal by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211756
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
light and variable becoming southeast around 8 kts after 15Z
Friday. SHRA are expected to move into the MHK terminal by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Northern stream shortwave is currently progressing eastward over the
Midwest this morning as an upper ridge builds in behind the wave.
Lower cloud cover has broken up across portions of the area this
morning leaving mostly clear skies with the exception of near the
MO/KS state line. Surface high pressure was still located northwest
of the forecast area, and will build southward through out the day.
This means a slight pressure gradient is still in place, which could
offset the radiational cooling. Although, fog is still possible at
some locations especially northern KS where the clouds have cleared
out early and winds are overall lighter. Some higher level clouds
spread in from the west later today and high temperatures reach the
mid to upper 60s. Winds will become fairly calm as the center of the
high slides through this afternoon and evening. Models are in good
agreement that a lead shortwave trough will kick out of the SW US
tonight. This trough will support moisture return and isentropic
lift over western and central KS early tomorrow morning. There are
some indications that this precip could reach southwest portions of
the forecast area around sunrise therefore have included a slight
chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Friday through Wednesday, a longer wave length upper level trough
embedded within the southern stream of the upper level jet will
remain across the southwest US through next week. Expect scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. The
southern stream jet looks rather weak, thus the vertical wind shear
will not be supportive of more intense organized storm updrafts.

Friday, the first H5 trough will lift northeast across NM into
western KS and NE. The mid and upper level flow will be stronger,
however a cool and stable low-level airmass will be in place. There
may not even be enough instability for thunder. skies will be mostly
cloudy and easterly winds will keep Highs only in the lower to mid
60s.

Friday night through Saturday, An upper low across the four corners
region will amplify slightly. This will cause a downstream upper
ridge to amplify across the eastern plains and southern MS river
valley. Deeper moisture advection will provide enough isentropic
lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The instability may
increase to around 1200 J/KG Saturday afternoon across the western
counties of the CWA for some strong pulse storms. Highs Saturday
will warm up a bit into the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday Night through Sunday, Another shortwave trough will lift
northeast across west TX into western OK and central KS, rotating around
the upper low over southwest CO. Our chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase late Saturday night into Sunday. The
primary hazard would be heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the

Sunday night and Monday, There may be a break in the showers and
thunderstorms as eastern KS will be between two shortwave
troughs. I cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms due
to the deeper moisture in place, weak cap and afternoon
insolation. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, An upper level trough over NM will fill as
it lifts northeast across southwest KS into southeast NE and western
IA. Stronger ascent will provide a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA. The 0-6KM effective shear looks weak
with only 35 KTS at 500 MB and veered 850mb winds. If the
instability increases then there could be a few strong pulse storms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Highs will be
around 80 Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, west-southwest mid and upper level flow with deeper
moisture in place may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon hours. The better chance will be
closer to the surface trough in western KS. Highs will reach the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities