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000
FXUS63 KTOP 041733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue. Conditions look very similar to
recent days with some gusts likely in the 16Z-23Z period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue. Conditions look very similar to
recent days with some gusts likely in the 16Z-23Z period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue. Conditions look very similar to
recent days with some gusts likely in the 16Z-23Z period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will continue. Conditions look very similar to
recent days with some gusts likely in the 16Z-23Z period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
TAF sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

General southwest flow aloft in place across the region with several
weak embedded shortwaves lifting northeastward this morning. One
located over north central KS coupled with weak isentropic is
responsible for the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunder. These showers will continue to develop further east through
out the morning as depicted by the short term high res models. The
showers should dissipate late morning as the shortwave lifts into IA
and the isentropic lift weakens. Later today expect partly cloudy
skies and high temperatures similar to yesterday. Although the 850
mb temperatures are forecast to be cooler by a degree or two
therefore did not raise todays highs much. The southerly winds will
also increase again with daytime heating given there has not been
that much chance in the overall surface pressure pattern. As of now
the models do not depict any shortwaves within the vicinity that
could support scattered showers tonight like that past few nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

On Saturday and Sunday the strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies will lift into southern Canada pushing a front towards the
forecast area. Prior to the frontal passage isentropic lift Sunday
morning could support scattered showery activity. This front is
forecast to arrive Sunday evening and slide southeastward through
the overnight hours. Do not expect much instability ahead of the
front with the NAM forecasting around 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be under 25 kts so do not expect any organized severe
weather at this time. The front will then stall out during the day
Monday keeping the threat for precip around the area. Another
shortwave dropping in the backside of the initial wave will phase
and cause the trough to deepen over the Pacific northwest. This will
keep the west to southwest flow aloft and any shortwaves within this
flow could bring additional rounds of precip. The stalled surface
front should then lift north Monday night ahead of these waves only
to have another sold front drop south on Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the waves track over the plains. Behind the front
northwest flow aloft assist in cooling temperatures with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
TAF sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
TAF sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
TAF sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
TAF sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the TAF
period. Gusty winds will decrease to 5-10 knots later this
evening. Winds will once again increase after 15Z tomorrow
morning with sustained winds between 10 to 15 knots and gusts
reaching 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the TAF
period. Gusty winds will decrease to 5-10 knots later this
evening. Winds will once again increase after 15Z tomorrow
morning with sustained winds between 10 to 15 knots and gusts
reaching 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the TAF
period. Gusty winds will decrease to 5-10 knots later this
evening. Winds will once again increase after 15Z tomorrow
morning with sustained winds between 10 to 15 knots and gusts
reaching 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the TAF
period. Gusty winds will decrease to 5-10 knots later this
evening. Winds will once again increase after 15Z tomorrow
morning with sustained winds between 10 to 15 knots and gusts
reaching 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer
conditions.

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central Rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
Plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. WIth the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Minor gusts more likely at MHK and FOE
through 0Z and likely returning around 15Z. Could have enough
backing and weakening of surface winds for near LLWS conditions
from roughly 5Z-13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Any isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain north of the
terminals early this morning. Expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Weak isentropic lift at the 310K theta surface was causing just
enough lift for parcels around 700mb to reach their LFC`s for
showers to develop. There may be just enough elevated
instability for some elevated thunderstorms as well. The best
chance for elevated showers and thunderstorms will be north of
I-70 across northeast KS. The showers should diminish as the
isentropic lift weakens towards 9 AM.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Any isolated showers or thunderstorms will remain north of the
terminals early this morning. Expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 030803
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 030803
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

An upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary across the
southern and central plains for the next 24 hours as an upper level
trough across the pacific northwest amplifies southward along the
west coast. Most of the weak upper level troughs embedded within the
southern stream jet should move north-northeast around the western
periphery of the upper ridge axis across the high plains.

Early this morning the stronger isentropic lift will occur north of
the CWA across south central and central NE where elevated showers
and thunderstorms may develop towards sunrise. There may be enough
weak isentropic lift for an isolated shower across the CWA early
this morning. I will keep pops in the 10 to 14 percent range just
in case an isolated high based shower manages to develop.

After a some mid level clouds in the morning, skies should become
mostly sunny. Highs once again should reach the lower to mid 90s
across the CWA with the higher temperatures across the western and
southwest counties of the CWA. Southerly winds will increase to 10
to 20 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear with overnight lows dropping
back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

On Friday and Saturday a strong mid/upper low pressure will dig
across the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. Southwest flow
aloft will become well established over the northern plains. Weak
mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft will
track west and north of the forecast area. Any activity associated
with these waves should stay out of the area with the exception of
north central KS. Depending on the exact track of these waves there
is a slight chance a more easterly track could bring a few showers
or storms to north central KS especially Saturday night. Sunday into
Monday the strong mid-level system will lift northeastward over the
northern plains and southern Canada. This will push a front into the
forecast area either late Sunday afternoon or early evening, and
continue to slide southeastward through the area overnight Sunday.
The GFS is depicting that MUCape will be on the order of 500 j/kg
while the deep layer shear remains around 25 kts. So expect storms
will develop along the front although it appears the environment
will not support any severe storms at this time. Monday the front
stalls out in or just south of the forecast area only to lift back
northward Monday night driven by another mid-level shortwave
tracking over the northern plains and several weaker waves coming
out of the southwest US. Although the models disagree on how to
handle this second piece of energy dropping into the backside of the
initial trough. Then on Wednesday another front could push
through the area after a brief period in the warm sector, but
confidence in this scenario is low at this point due to model
discrepancy. Temperatures will continue to stay warm, with highs
in the 90s and lows in the 70s, until the front and precip arrives
late weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 030438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 030438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few isolated showers to develop early
Thursday morning, however confidence is not high enough on the
probability of these showers developing (let alone where they would
develop) to include in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to
monitor this potential.  Otherwise, southerly winds will become
more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 022321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms early Thursday morning, however confidence is not high
enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, southerly
winds will become more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms early Thursday morning, however confidence is not high
enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, southerly
winds will become more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 022321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms early Thursday morning, however confidence is not high
enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, southerly
winds will become more gusty Thursday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 022043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

19z sfc map shows low pressure across the northern plains with a
trough extending south into western KS with most of eastern Kansas
now mixed out into the warm sector as remnants of elevated
convection wane. Water vapor loop shows a wave across Nebraska
moving E along the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis.

For tonight, the wave will track into northern MO overnight and may
help to enhance the LLJ which will contribute to modest WAA around
850mb. There is some additional WAA fcst to occur around the 700mb
level as well. Interesting that both the RAP and HRRR and GFS are
showing some small areas of QPF across central KS overnight despite
the 850mb thetae ridge remaining north of the CWA overnight. This
appears to be due to modest lift and saturation around 700-650mb
where even the NAM soundings show saturation after 6z. Fcst
soundings suggest modest elevated CAPE of 100j/kg or less. Other
convective models do not show this weak lift resulting in saturation
or convection so for now will keep the pops below 15 and keep the
fcst dry but something to watch for overnight.

We should see another day much like today on Thursday with 1000-
850mb thickness and temps nearly identical to today so will go with
persistence for temps. Pressure gradient is also similar so look for
another breezy day as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday night through Saturday...Deep, moist southerly low-level
flow will continue through the period. With stronger south-
southwest flow aloft off to our west and northwest, no
recognizable dynamic feature is depicted in the short range
guidance to focus showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS. Only
possibility would be the remnants of some High Plains convective
cluster that might migrate into north central KS/south central/NE
before dissipating. Would expect any system like that to die out
before affecting our northwestern forecast area.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Strong upper trough over the
Rockies on Saturday evening will move northeast into southern
Manitoba and become an occluded system by Monday morning. While
strong dynamics are well to the north, southern extent of system
is a cold front that moves into central/eastern KS and then
becomes nearly stationary. This will be the focus for thunderstorm
chances late in the weekend into early next week. Medium range
models have some differences in the location of this boundary
already by Monday, but all depict it in the area with periodic
chances of thunderstorms into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Then another strong trough moves across the central U.S. with the
result that the front pushes south of the area by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period at
all terminals. However, wind gusts of 20-25 knots from the south
are expected at all terminals through 1Z this evening. Wind gusts
will also be a concern after 15Z tomorrow morning as 20-25 knot
gusts are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt/Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Isolated shower or storms will be possible at the terminals
through 16Z. KTOP may have marginal low-level windshear through
15Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Isolated shower or storms will be possible at the terminals
through 16Z. KTOP may have marginal low-level windshear through
15Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Isolated shower or storms will be possible at the terminals
through 16Z. KTOP may have marginal low-level windshear through
15Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Isolated shower or storms will be possible at the terminals
through 16Z. KTOP may have marginal low-level windshear through
15Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 020813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday
morning.  With the low-level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect precipitation to exit the TAF site
through the morning hours with increasing southerly winds through
the afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 020813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Early this morning an upper level trough extended from southwest MN,
south-southwest across eastern NE and extreme north central KS. Weak
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the upper trough was causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to move east across
extreme northeast KS. Several models show this band of elevated
showers and isolated storms developing farther southwest across east
central KS. Therefore...I will keep slight pops this morning across
east central KS with chance pops across northeast KS. The MUCAPE
will be below 400 j/kg, may be just enough instability for an
elevated thunderstorm. Once the H5 trough moves east into northern
MO the chances for showers should end during the mid and late
morning hours and the mid and high clouds should shift to the east.
Highs Today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight, The NMM and GFS are the only two model runs that show the
weak isentropic lift generating isolated showers or elevated
thunderstorms after 9Z across the western and northern counties of
the CWA. At this time I will only place 14 pops across the northwest
counties late Tonight. Lows will drop off to around 70 degrees
across much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Thursday and Friday will be quiet weather with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in the low 70s. Surface
winds will continue out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph especially in central KS on Thursday. Into the weekend
a strong mid/upper level low pressure will dig across the Pacific
northwest keeping the plains in southwest flow aloft. The models
depict several weak shortwaves embedded within this southwest flow
aloft that track north and west of the forecast area. This could
bring showers and storms close to north central KS. On Saturday
night the GFS shows a slightly stronger shortwave will track towards
the area from the desert southwest along with increasing isentropic
ascent. There is also some GFS ensemble members that track a mid-
level shortwave close to the area, which may provide lift for precip
Sunday morning. Meanwhile there is better model agreement that the
Pacific NW system lifts northeastward over the northern Rockies and
northern plains. This will drive a cold front southward into eastern
KS Sunday night and Monday. This front is then forecast to stall out
as the main systems continues northeastward over southern Canada.
This opens the door to several weaker shortwaves from the desert
southwest to pass over the frontal boundary on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore the chance for precip continues through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday
morning.  With the low-level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect precipitation to exit the TAF site
through the morning hours with increasing southerly winds through
the afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 020520
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday
morning.  With the low-level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect precipitation to exit the TAF site
through the morning hours with increasing southerly winds through
the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 020520
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday
morning.  With the low-level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect precipitation to exit the TAF site
through the morning hours with increasing southerly winds through
the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 020520
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the TAF sites overnight into Wednesday
morning.  With the low-level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect precipitation to exit the TAF site
through the morning hours with increasing southerly winds through
the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is the potential for some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to clip the TAF sites late overnight into Wednesday
morning, however confidence in the location of any of these isolated
showers is not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this
time, but will continue to monitor this potential. With the low-
level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect increasing southerly winds by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 012348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rain showers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over north central and northeastern KS
tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. Most short-term
high resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that
weak isentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
There is the potential for some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to clip the TAF sites late overnight into Wednesday
morning, however confidence in the location of any of these isolated
showers is not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this
time, but will continue to monitor this potential. With the low-
level jet axis centered over central KS tonight, there is the
potential for some brief low-level wind shear concerns, especially
near KMHK as it is located closer to this increasing low-level jet.
Cannot rule out the potential for some borderline low-level wind
shear concerns near KTOP/KFOE so will continue to monitor this
potential as well. Otherwise, expect increasing southerly winds by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012049
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rainshowers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over northcentral and northeastern KS tonight
into the early morning hours Wednesday.  Most short-term high
resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that weak
insentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions should continue over the next 24hrs. Gusty winds at
times this afternoon should calm near 00z time frame. Overnight,
there are some very small chances of showers and thunderstorms but
these should remain off to the North and West of the terminals.
LLWS may be a concern near 12z time mainly near KMHK, but didn`t
include in this TAF issuance due to low confidence in actually
meeting threshold values.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Drake




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012049
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

The upper levels show a broad upper ridge over the eastern CONUS
with a longwave trough just making its way into the Pacific
Northwest.  Currently, most Radar sites across the Central Plains
remain quiet with only some rainshowers over southeastern South
Dakota.  Cloud tops have progressively cooled throughout the day
indicating that storms have been dissipating.  This area of showers
appears to be in advance of a mid to upper level low amplitude
shortwave that is showing signs of weakening with decreasing
vorticity as it lifts further to the northeast from the lee trough
region of the Rockies.

Daytime mixing has allowed for some gusty winds at the surface today
as we are still under plenty of sunshine over northeastern KS.  This
is expected to continue until tonight as winds calm as we begin to
lose insolation and the source of heating at the surface.  Still
expecting that the previously mentioned shortwave will have at least
minor impacts tonight over northcentral and northeastern KS tonight
into the early morning hours Wednesday.  Most short-term high
resolution guidance, such as the HRRR and RAP, suggest that weak
insentropic lift at around 310K level and a little extra
enhancement from the LLJ around 850mb will help create some small
areas of precip. With at least some midlevel instability due to
the remnants of the shortwave, there could be some elevated
thunderstorms. It is possible with drier low-levels per NAM and
RAP soundings that there could be some areas of stronger winds
with the more enhanced areas of thunderstorms and precip.
Expecting that tomorrow will be similar to today. As the clouds
from over night clear, expect mixing to occur once again with
highs climbing into the low 90s. Depending on how many clouds
remain, temps may need to be revised up a bit. As for lows
tonight, do expect temps to reach lower 70s which is up a bit due
to the expected cloud cover overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Wednesday night through Friday afternoon...More of the same sensible
weather with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s.  Plume of
moisture continues to move into the four corners and southern and
Central Rockies as the western trof absorbs tropical energy from
near Baja.  Weak wave may generate some isolated overnight showers
or a storm northwest late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning, otherwise the ridge noses northward and keeps most of the
area dry and warm for the mid term period.

Friday night through Tuesday...Friday night and Saturday look to
be dry, before chances for precipitation start to increase Sunday
through Tuesday. An upper level system moving over the NW CONUS
Saturday will progress east along with an associated cold front.
With southerly winds advecting ample moisture into the region and
an advancing cold front, expect showers and storms to develop in
NE Kansas mainly early Monday morning through Tuesday. Models also
seem to be in better agreement with this timing. Cooler
temperatures are expected as that front passes, with lows in the
mid 60s Monday night and highs topping out in the low 80s on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions should continue over the next 24hrs. Gusty winds at
times this afternoon should calm near 00z time frame. Overnight,
there are some very small chances of showers and thunderstorms but
these should remain off to the North and West of the terminals.
LLWS may be a concern near 12z time mainly near KMHK, but didn`t
include in this TAF issuance due to low confidence in actually
meeting threshold values.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Drake





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