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000
FXUS63 KTOP 010435 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Mid/upper level shortwave continues to dig southeast across the OH
river valley the rest of today and into tomorrow. Behind this wave
is a surface high pressure slides southward through the region
overnight. This will allow the pressure gradient to relax resulting
in a gradually decrease in winds this evening. The clear skies and
calm winds will set the stage for widespread frost and low
temperatures in the low 20s and possibly upper 10s in favorable
areas tonight. Tomorrow an upper level ridge moves over the central
US as the surface high retreats eastward. Although strong upper
level shortwave is forecast to progress over the west coast, which
will shove the upper ridge eastward allowing southwest flow aloft to
take control. Southwest flow aloft will cause a lee side trough to
develop over the high plains causing an increasing pressure gradient
within the return flow. Warmer temps advecting in from the western
US will help highs tomorrow reach the upper 40s and low 50s. Wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon could approach 30 mph out of the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Upper ridging will gradually shift east as a deep Rocky Mountain
trough makes an eastward shift through Monday as well. Surface
cyclogenesis will develop in the lee of the Rockies with a
strengthening pressure gradient and low level winds across the
local forecast area Saturday night through Sunday night. This will
keep low temperatures warmer both Sat and Sun night, and highs on
Sunday should be well into the 60s to around 70 if clouds remain
limited.

Rain chances begin to increase by late Sunday night into Monday as
the upper level jet moves overhead and low level moisture
continues to advect into the forecast area. Vertical motion will
continue to increase into the day on Monday in the vicinity of the
upper jet divergence and a slow moving frontal zone. This will be
further amplified by an intensifying low level jet Monday evening
in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Overall, rain chances look
quite good across the entire area at some point during the Monday
to Monday night time frame. The chances may increase slightly with
southeastward extent in the forecast area though. Any uncertainty
lies in the eventual evolution of the northern stream trough
scheduled to bring a surge of dry air south into the region and
impacting the speed of the surface front. All told, expect rain,
with a widespread 0.25 to 1.5 inches across the area through
Monday night.

All signs point to a fast drying trend from northwest to southeast
starting early on Tuesday, with the whole area precipitation free
by Tuesday afternoon. A secondary dry cold front will bring
temperatures colder yet for Wednesday night into Thursday. Model
guidance diverges considerably by next Friday with significant
differences in the evolution of a tropic Pacific storm system as
it moves north and becomes absorbed into the main upper flow.
Thus, low confidence at the end of the forecast but see some
potential for another round of rain so have kept some chances
mentioned for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast.
Scattered cirrus before 14z will give way to scattered AC around
10 kft thru the remainder of the forecast. VRB/east winds under 5
kts until 14z will veer to the south and southeast and increase
through 17z with gusts 18-24kts remainder of the TAF
fcst...although gusts may decrease some aft 00z/02.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 312337 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Mid/upper level shortwave continues to dig southeast across the OH
river valley the rest of today and into tomorrow. Behind this wave
is a surface high pressure slides southward through the region
overnight. This will allow the pressure gradient to relax resulting
in a gradually decrease in winds this evening. The clear skies and
calm winds will set the stage for widespread frost and low
temperatures in the low 20s and possibly upper 10s in favorable
areas tonight. Tomorrow an upper level ridge moves over the central
US as the surface high retreats eastward. Although strong upper
level shortwave is forecast to progress over the west coast, which
will shove the upper ridge eastward allowing southwest flow aloft to
take control. Southwest flow aloft will cause a lee side trough to
develop over the high plains causing an increasing pressure gradient
within the return flow. Warmer temps advecting in from the western
US will help highs tomorrow reach the upper 40s and low 50s. Wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon could approach 30 mph out of the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Upper ridging will gradually shift east as a deep Rocky Mountain
trough makes an eastward shift through Monday as well. Surface
cyclogenesis will develop in the lee of the Rockies with a
strengthening pressure gradient and low level winds across the
local forecast area Saturday night through Sunday night. This will
keep low temperatures warmer both Sat and Sun night, and highs on
Sunday should be well into the 60s to around 70 if clouds remain
limited.

Rain chances begin to increase by late Sunday night into Monday as
the upper level jet moves overhead and low level moisture
continues to advect into the forecast area. Vertical motion will
continue to increase into the day on Monday in the vicinity of the
upper jet divergence and a slow moving frontal zone. This will be
further amplified by an intensifying low level jet Monday evening
in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Overall, rain chances look
quite good across the entire area at some point during the Monday
to Monday night time frame. The chances may increase slightly with
southeastward extent in the forecast area though. Any uncertainty
lies in the eventual evolution of the northern stream trough
scheduled to bring a surge of dry air south into the region and
impacting the speed of the surface front. All told, expect rain,
with a widespread 0.25 to 1.5 inches across the area through
Monday night.

All signs point to a fast drying trend from northwest to southeast
starting early on Tuesday, with the whole area precipitation free
by Tuesday afternoon. A secondary dry cold front will bring
temperatures colder yet for Wednesday night into Thursday. Model
guidance diverges considerably by next Friday with significant
differences in the evolution of a tropic Pacific storm system as
it moves north and becomes absorbed into the main upper flow.
Thus, low confidence at the end of the forecast but see some
potential for another round of rain so have kept some chances
mentioned for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast
period. Only sct cirrus expected through 14z with sct AC around
10 kft thru the remainder of the forecast. VRB winds under 5 kts
until 14z will veer to the south southeast and increase through
17z with gusts 18-24kts remainder of the TAF fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 312025
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Mid/upper level shortwave continues to dig southeast across the OH
river valley the rest of today and into tomorrow. Behind this wave
is a surface high pressure slides southward through the region
overnight. This will allow the pressure gradient to relax resulting
in a gradually decrease in winds this evening. The clear skies and
calm winds will set the stage for widespread frost and low
temperatures in the low 20s and possibly upper 10s in favorable
areas tonight. Tomorrow an upper level ridge moves over the central
US as the surface high retreats eastward. Although strong upper
level shortwave is forecast to progress over the west coast, which
will shove the upper ridge eastward allowing southwest flow aloft to
take control. Southwest flow aloft will cause a lee side trough to
develop over the high plains causing an increasing pressure gradient
within the return flow. Warmer temps advecting in from the western
US will help highs tomorrow reach the upper 40s and low 50s. Wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon could approach 30 mph out of the south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Upper ridging will gradually shift east as a deep Rocky Mountain
trough makes an eastward shift through Monday as well. Surface
cyclogenesis will develop in the lee of the Rockies with a
strengthening pressure gradient and low level winds across the
local forecast area Saturday night through Sunday night. This will
keep low temperatures warmer both Sat and Sun night, and highs on
Sunday should be well into the 60s to around 70 if clouds remain
limited.

Rain chances begin to increase by late Sunday night into Monday as
the upper level jet moves overhead and low level moisture
continues to advect into the forecast area. Vertical motion will
continue to increase into the day on Monday in the vicinity of the
upper jet divergence and a slow moving frontal zone. This will be
further amplified by an intensifying low level jet Monday evening
in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Overall, rain chances look
quite good across the entire area at some point during the Monday
to Monday night time frame. The chances may increase slightly with
southeastward extent in the forecast area though. Any uncertainty
lies in the eventual evolution of the northern stream trough
scheduled to bring a surge of dry air south into the region and
impacting the speed of the surface front. All told, expect rain,
with a widespread 0.25 to 1.5 inches across the area through
Monday night.

All signs point to a fast drying trend from northwest to southeast
starting early on Tuesday, with the whole area precipitation free
by Tuesday afternoon. A secondary dry cold front will bring
temperatures colder yet for Wednesday night into Thursday. Model
guidance diverges considerably by next Friday with significant
differences in the evolution of a tropic Pacific storm system as
it moves north and becomes absorbed into the main upper flow.
Thus, low confidence at the end of the forecast but see some
potential for another round of rain so have kept some chances
mentioned for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Occasional gusts
this afternoon especially at TOP/FOE as winds gradually decrease
and become calm by sunrise only to eventually veer overnight.
Winds pick up late morning out of the southeast with gusts
occurring by the end of the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 311634
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Occasional gusts
this afternoon especially at TOP/FOE as winds gradually decrease
and become calm by sunrise only to eventually veer overnight.
Winds pick up late morning out of the southeast with gusts
occurring by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 311131
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to clear the terminals around 13Z and
expect VFR conditions thereafter. Winds north around 14kts with
gusts around 24 kts at TOP and FOE will decrease to around 10 kts
after 20Z with light winds of 3 kts or less after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 310819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 310442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 302341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR prevails for the first few hours of period as focus turns
towards a secondary cold front and area of MVFR stratus pushing
south over eastern Nebraska. Confidence in timing for MVFR cigs is
decent between 2 kft and 2500 ft arriving near 6Z. Sustained
northerly winds around 10 kts this evening increase overnight with
gusts up to 28 kts through tomorrow afternoon. MVFR deck is
expected to clear by 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 302055
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.


Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 302032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The mid/upper level shortwave responsible for the showers and
thunderstorms this morning is currently moving over central MO this
afternoon and evening. Dry mid level air and subsidence behind this
wave has contributed to mostly clear skies. A strong low level jet
on the backside of the system has begun to overspread the area, and
will cause an increase in winds once they shift to the north. These
strong winds will filter in colder temperatures with lows expected
to range from the upper 30s in SW MO to the low 30s along the IA
state line. A combination of the wind and cold air means wind chills
drop as low as 20 degrees for northern MO by sunrise. The gusty
winds also keep the boundary layer somewhat mixed, and this should
limit the formation of frost. An area of stratus located over SD
will drop southward and pass through briefly tonight before dry air
over takes the region and scatters the clouds out by tomorrow
morning. Temperatures during the day will struggle to reach the mid
40s, and wind chills stay in the 30s. High pressure will then start
to build in from the north in the afternoon, which will cause a
gradual decrease in winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze across the
entire CWA. Therefore, a freeze warning will be in effect Tonight
and through 800 AM on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the mid to upper
40s. Expect light winds through the day as the surface ridge
pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the mid 50s east to to near 60 west.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport deeper moisture
northward across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return
Sunday night may increase the isentropic lift enough for isolated
showers and elevated thunderstorms to develop across the western
and central counties of the CWA

Monday through Tuesday Night, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains into the mid MS river valley. The H5
trough will gradually shear out as the northern stream H5 jet
increases across southern Canada and the northern plains. There
should continue to be sufficient ascent and deeper moisture
advection for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
showers should end from northwest to southeast across the CWA Tuesday
evening as a surface cold front will move southeast across the
CWA through Tuesday night. Highs on Monday will reach the upper
50s to mid 60s. Tuesday night into early Wednesday the clouds will
decrease from northwest to southeast across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.


Wednesday through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures remaining in
the upper 50s east to lower to mid 60s west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions should persist through much of the forecast. LLWS
conditions slowly dissipating per radar and early radiosonde data.
Initial frontal passage brings in northwest winds early on, with a
secondary surge possibly allowing a stratus deck to form after
04Z. Unsure on development or persistence of a ceiling at this
point however.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 300837
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Models continue to show to much dry air in place for large scale
forcing to generate any precip overnight. Therefore the forecast
anticipates VFR conditions persisting. Profiler data showing the
low level jet increasing with relatively light winds at the
surface so LLWS remains a possibility and have kept a mention in
the forecast. By Thursday afternoon, the boundary layer mixes out
with good momentum transfer so think there will be gusty northwest
winds by the early afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 300426
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate CAA behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Models continue to show to much dry air in place for large scale
forcing to generate any precip overnight. Therefore the forecast
anticipates VFR conditions persisting. Profiler data showing the
low level jet increasing with relatively light winds at the
surface so LLWS remains a possibility and have kept a mention in
the forecast. By Thursday afternoon, the boundary layer mixes out
with good momentum transfer so think there will be gusty northwest
winds by the early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 292227
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate CAA behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

NAM12 and RAP13 forecast soundings continue to show a steep
nocturnal inversion with a 40KT low level jet setting up late this
evening. Therefore will maintain a mention of LLWS. Otherwise a
dry airmass is expected to preclude any precip or restrictions to
VSBY and CIGS. A tightening pressure gradient and dry adiabatic
low level lapse rates could lead to some gusty northwest winds Thu
afternoon behind the FROPA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters









000
FXUS63 KTOP 292048
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate caa behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface winds will be light through Thursday morning, gradually
veering from southeast to northwest. As a shortwave trough skims
southward over the region overnight into Thursday morning, the
low-level jet will increase over the TAF sites, resulting in the
potential for some LLWS concerns overnight as southwesterly winds at
around 1000ft may reach upwards of 35-40kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface winds will be light through Thursday morning, gradually
veering from southeast to northwest. As a shortwave trough skims
southward over the region overnight into Thursday morning, the
low-level jet will increase over the TAF sites, resulting in the
potential for some LLWS concerns overnight as southwesterly winds at
around 1000ft may reach upwards of 35-40kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. Can`t completely rule out patchy
ground fog through 14Z but no signs of it currently. Winds
gradually increase from the south with wind shear likely in the
last few hours of the forecast. Went ahead with LLWS mention but
fine tuning of timing and levels can be expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ026-034-035-
037-039-040.

FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-036-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 290818
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to persist with a dry surface ridge
building in.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ026-034-035-
037-039-040.

FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-036-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








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