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000
FXUS63 KTOP 221112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
512 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper level trough
over the central U.S. at 09Z. Profiler and airplane reports show a
150+ KT jet streak on the back side of the upper trough from the
Pacific northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile at the
surface, an area of low pressure was forming over the northern
plains with a trough axis extending south through western and
central KS.

For today the surface trough axis/front is expected to gradually
move east across the area as energy on the back side of the upper
trough causes a closed upper level low to develop over the central
plains. As it does, models prog a decent shortwave to swing through
northern KS providing forcing for showers along the trough axis. All
of the models seem to be in agreement on this, and the only real
difference in the solutions is the GFS seems to be the deepest with
the upper low and the surface reflection. This may explain why the
GFS is a little more aggressive with the surface winds this
afternoon on account of having the strongest pressure gradient. In
any case, it looks like the strongest vertical motion from the
shortwave moves overhead during the late morning and early
afternoon. With this in mind, have the highest pops along and east
of the expected trough axis location through the early afternoon.
Considered inserting a mention of thunder to the forecast as the
shortwave rotates through the area. The NAM and GFS show a small
window where mid level lapse rates steepen to around 8 C/km. But
since instability remains very modest due to the cool and moist
nature of the airmass, have left the forecast all rain. However I
would not be surprised if there were a couple rumbles of thunder
early in the afternoon across east central KS. Cloud cover and
precip are expected to keep temps from warming much and have highs
in the mid 40s, or only several degrees warmer than current
readings.

Tonight should see surface winds become westerly as a surface low
propagates into the MS river valley. This should usher in some
relatively dry air to the forecast area. Unfortunately the closed
upper low is expected to remain over the MO river valley with the
potential for upper level deformation and moisture wrapping around
the back side of the upper low back into northern KS. The GFS seems
to be the more bullish solution with its QPF overnight and am a
little concerned this may be due to it developing a deeper system
then other solutions. Nevertheless have held onto POPs tonight
showing the potential for precip. Models show mostly subsidence
developing this evening across east central KS, so think any chance
for precip overnight will be across northern KS and along the NEB
boarder. There looks to be enough cold air moving in that the precip
could be in the form of snow after midnight as well. At this point
with temps forecast to be in the lower and mid 30s overnight and
models showing the better mid level frontogenesis setting up over
southeast NEB, think snow may only amount to a dusting before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A complicated forecast in the mid term as minor changes between
model runs create major changes in the location of optimal lift and
consequential precipitation, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, it does appear model guidance in
showing better consistency with an upper jet streak within the
northwest flow diving southeast towards the southern plains. As this
occurs, embedded lift enhances behind the departing upper low.
Better confidence in this system lead to higher precip chances for
the CWA Tuesday as the wave and cold front move through. Still
remains some uncertainty in strength of this wave. Cross sections
and previous runs reveal the GFS to be an outlier with the amount of
forcing and generous amounts of QPF Tuesday afternoon. Leaned closer
to the ECMWF and NAM solutions as ensemble solutions shows similar
characteristics with the evolution. As precipitation develops along
and behind the boundary, temps will fall close to or just above the
freezing mark. A mix of rain and snow is possible, transitioning to
all snow by early evening, and gradually exiting east central KS
Wednesday morning. At this time do not see areas of strong,
persistent lift and instability to indicate banding precip. Snow
ratios averaged at 12:1 lend to total snowfall accumulations near or
less than an inch by Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor
trends in the upcoming days as this system has the potential to
impact travel.

For Christmas Eve, southerly winds increase as a lee surface trough
builds, advecting warm air back into the CWA through Christmas Day.
Dry air advection slowly pushes east Wednesday afternoon, as north
central areas may break out into mostly sunny skies. Highs recover
into the upper 30s with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Southerly
winds increase Christmas Day as a slow moving upper trough enters
over the Rockies. Skies become mostly sunny for all of northeast
Kansas as increased WAA boosts highs in the upper 40s. Bulk of the
system and associated QPF passes to the north of the CWA Thursday
evening and Friday. Still could not rule out very light snow
impacting north central areas, otherwise no impacts are seen in
terms of precip. Another cold front cools highs back into the 30s
for the weekend as dry high pressure takes control of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS are likely to persist until the surface trough axis
passes through the terminals and winds shift to the west. This
should bring in relatively dry air and an end to the light rain.
Once the trough axis passes, models show the boundary layer
moisture mixing out leading to a greater potential for VFR
conditions. There are some timing issues between the NAM and RAP
with when low clouds may mix out. For now leaned a little closer
to the quicker RAP since this lines up well with the FROPA and is
supported somewhat by the HRRR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
512 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper level trough
over the central U.S. at 09Z. Profiler and airplane reports show a
150+ KT jet streak on the back side of the upper trough from the
Pacific northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile at the
surface, an area of low pressure was forming over the northern
plains with a trough axis extending south through western and
central KS.

For today the surface trough axis/front is expected to gradually
move east across the area as energy on the back side of the upper
trough causes a closed upper level low to develop over the central
plains. As it does, models prog a decent shortwave to swing through
northern KS providing forcing for showers along the trough axis. All
of the models seem to be in agreement on this, and the only real
difference in the solutions is the GFS seems to be the deepest with
the upper low and the surface reflection. This may explain why the
GFS is a little more aggressive with the surface winds this
afternoon on account of having the strongest pressure gradient. In
any case, it looks like the strongest vertical motion from the
shortwave moves overhead during the late morning and early
afternoon. With this in mind, have the highest pops along and east
of the expected trough axis location through the early afternoon.
Considered inserting a mention of thunder to the forecast as the
shortwave rotates through the area. The NAM and GFS show a small
window where mid level lapse rates steepen to around 8 C/km. But
since instability remains very modest due to the cool and moist
nature of the airmass, have left the forecast all rain. However I
would not be surprised if there were a couple rumbles of thunder
early in the afternoon across east central KS. Cloud cover and
precip are expected to keep temps from warming much and have highs
in the mid 40s, or only several degrees warmer than current
readings.

Tonight should see surface winds become westerly as a surface low
propagates into the MS river valley. This should usher in some
relatively dry air to the forecast area. Unfortunately the closed
upper low is expected to remain over the MO river valley with the
potential for upper level deformation and moisture wrapping around
the back side of the upper low back into northern KS. The GFS seems
to be the more bullish solution with its QPF overnight and am a
little concerned this may be due to it developing a deeper system
then other solutions. Nevertheless have held onto POPs tonight
showing the potential for precip. Models show mostly subsidence
developing this evening across east central KS, so think any chance
for precip overnight will be across northern KS and along the NEB
boarder. There looks to be enough cold air moving in that the precip
could be in the form of snow after midnight as well. At this point
with temps forecast to be in the lower and mid 30s overnight and
models showing the better mid level frontogenesis setting up over
southeast NEB, think snow may only amount to a dusting before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A complicated forecast in the mid term as minor changes between
model runs create major changes in the location of optimal lift and
consequential precipitation, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, it does appear model guidance in
showing better consistency with an upper jet streak within the
northwest flow diving southeast towards the southern plains. As this
occurs, embedded lift enhances behind the departing upper low.
Better confidence in this system lead to higher precip chances for
the CWA Tuesday as the wave and cold front move through. Still
remains some uncertainty in strength of this wave. Cross sections
and previous runs reveal the GFS to be an outlier with the amount of
forcing and generous amounts of QPF Tuesday afternoon. Leaned closer
to the ECMWF and NAM solutions as ensemble solutions shows similar
characteristics with the evolution. As precipitation develops along
and behind the boundary, temps will fall close to or just above the
freezing mark. A mix of rain and snow is possible, transitioning to
all snow by early evening, and gradually exiting east central KS
Wednesday morning. At this time do not see areas of strong,
persistent lift and instability to indicate banding precip. Snow
ratios averaged at 12:1 lend to total snowfall accumulations near or
less than an inch by Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor
trends in the upcoming days as this system has the potential to
impact travel.

For Christmas Eve, southerly winds increase as a lee surface trough
builds, advecting warm air back into the CWA through Christmas Day.
Dry air advection slowly pushes east Wednesday afternoon, as north
central areas may break out into mostly sunny skies. Highs recover
into the upper 30s with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Southerly
winds increase Christmas Day as a slow moving upper trough enters
over the Rockies. Skies become mostly sunny for all of northeast
Kansas as increased WAA boosts highs in the upper 40s. Bulk of the
system and associated QPF passes to the north of the CWA Thursday
evening and Friday. Still could not rule out very light snow
impacting north central areas, otherwise no impacts are seen in
terms of precip. Another cold front cools highs back into the 30s
for the weekend as dry high pressure takes control of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS are likely to persist until the surface trough axis
passes through the terminals and winds shift to the west. This
should bring in relatively dry air and an end to the light rain.
Once the trough axis passes, models show the boundary layer
moisture mixing out leading to a greater potential for VFR
conditions. There are some timing issues between the NAM and RAP
with when low clouds may mix out. For now leaned a little closer
to the quicker RAP since this lines up well with the FROPA and is
supported somewhat by the HRRR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220915
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper level trough
over the central U.S. at 09Z. Profiler and airplane reports show a
150+ KT jet streak on the back side of the upper trough from the
Pacific northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile at the
surface, an area of low pressure was forming over the northern
plains with a trough axis extending south through western and
central KS.

For today the surface trough axis/front is expected to gradually
move east across the area as energy on the back side of the upper
trough causes a closed upper level low to develop over the central
plains. As it does, models prog a decent shortwave to swing through
northern KS providing forcing for showers along the trough axis. All
of the models seem to be in agreement on this, and the only real
difference in the solutions is the GFS seems to be the deepest with
the upper low and the surface reflection. This may explain why the
GFS is a little more aggressive with the surface winds this
afternoon on account of having the strongest pressure gradient. In
any case, it looks like the strongest vertical motion from the
shortwave moves overhead during the late morning and early
afternoon. With this in mind, have the highest pops along and east
of the expected trough axis location through the early afternoon.
Considered inserting a mention of thunder to the forecast as the
shortwave rotates through the area. The NAM and GFS show a small
window where mid level lapse rates steepen to around 8 C/km. But
since instability remains very modest due to the cool and moist
nature of the airmass, have left the forecast all rain. However I
would not be surprised if there were a couple rumbles of thunder
early in the afternoon across east central KS. Cloud cover and
precip are expected to keep temps from warming much and have highs
in the mid 40s, or only several degrees warmer than current
readings.

Tonight should see surface winds become westerly as a surface low
propagates into the MS river valley. This should usher in some
relatively dry air to the forecast area. Unfortunately the closed
upper low is expected to remain over the MO river valley with the
potential for upper level deformation and moisture wrapping around
the back side of the upper low back into northern KS. The GFS seems
to be the more bullish solution with its QPF overnight and am a
little concerned this may be due to it developing a deeper system
then other solutions. Nevertheless have held onto POPs tonight
showing the potential for precip. Models show mostly subsidence
developing this evening across east central KS, so think any chance
for precip overnight will be across northern KS and along the NEB
boarder. There looks to be enough cold air moving in that the precip
could be in the form of snow after midnight as well. At this point
with temps forecast to be in the lower and mid 30s overnight and
models showing the better mid level frontogenesis setting up over
southeast NEB, think snow may only amount to a dusting before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A complicated forecast in the mid term as minor changes between
model runs create major changes in the location of optimal lift and
consequential precipitation, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, it does appear model guidance in
showing better consistency with an upper jet streak within the
northwest flow diving southeast towards the southern plains. As this
occurs, embedded lift enhances behind the departing upper low.
Better confidence in this system lead to higher precip chances for
the CWA Tuesday as the wave and cold front move through. Still
remains some uncertainty in strength of this wave. Cross sections
and previous runs reveal the GFS to be an outlier with the amount of
forcing and generous amounts of QPF Tuesday afternoon. Leaned closer
to the ECMWF and NAM solutions as ensemble solutions shows similar
characteristics with the evolution. As precipitation develops along
and behind the boundary, temps will fall close to or just above the
freezing mark. A mix of rain and snow is possible, transitioning to
all snow by early evening, and gradually exiting east central KS
Wednesday morning. At this time do not see areas of strong,
persistent lift and instability to indicate banding precip. Snow
ratios averaged at 12:1 lend to total snowfall accumulations near or
less than an inch by Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor
trends in the upcoming days as this system has the potential to
impact travel.

For Christmas Eve, southerly winds increase as a lee surface trough
builds, advecting warm air back into the CWA through Christmas Day.
Dry air advection slowly pushes east Wednesday afternoon, as north
central areas may break out into mostly sunny skies. Highs recover
into the upper 30s with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Southerly
winds increase Christmas Day as a slow moving upper trough enters
over the Rockies. Skies become mostly sunny for all of northeast
Kansas as increased WAA boosts highs in the upper 40s. Bulk of the
system and associated QPF passes to the north of the CWA Thursday
evening and Friday. Still could not rule out very light snow
impacting north central areas, otherwise no impacts are seen in
terms of precip. Another cold front cools highs back into the 30s
for the weekend as dry high pressure takes control of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP and FOE continue to hold at MVFR while expect MHK to dip below
1000ft agl cigs in the next hour or so. Rain moves across the
sites toward sunrise and continues through the morning. wind shifts
to westerly in the early afternoon and continues through the day.
While rain may diminish in intensity for the afternoon and
evening, still expect MVFR cigs and will continue to end of TAF
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220915
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad upper level trough
over the central U.S. at 09Z. Profiler and airplane reports show a
150+ KT jet streak on the back side of the upper trough from the
Pacific northwest into the central Rockies. Meanwhile at the
surface, an area of low pressure was forming over the northern
plains with a trough axis extending south through western and
central KS.

For today the surface trough axis/front is expected to gradually
move east across the area as energy on the back side of the upper
trough causes a closed upper level low to develop over the central
plains. As it does, models prog a decent shortwave to swing through
northern KS providing forcing for showers along the trough axis. All
of the models seem to be in agreement on this, and the only real
difference in the solutions is the GFS seems to be the deepest with
the upper low and the surface reflection. This may explain why the
GFS is a little more aggressive with the surface winds this
afternoon on account of having the strongest pressure gradient. In
any case, it looks like the strongest vertical motion from the
shortwave moves overhead during the late morning and early
afternoon. With this in mind, have the highest pops along and east
of the expected trough axis location through the early afternoon.
Considered inserting a mention of thunder to the forecast as the
shortwave rotates through the area. The NAM and GFS show a small
window where mid level lapse rates steepen to around 8 C/km. But
since instability remains very modest due to the cool and moist
nature of the airmass, have left the forecast all rain. However I
would not be surprised if there were a couple rumbles of thunder
early in the afternoon across east central KS. Cloud cover and
precip are expected to keep temps from warming much and have highs
in the mid 40s, or only several degrees warmer than current
readings.

Tonight should see surface winds become westerly as a surface low
propagates into the MS river valley. This should usher in some
relatively dry air to the forecast area. Unfortunately the closed
upper low is expected to remain over the MO river valley with the
potential for upper level deformation and moisture wrapping around
the back side of the upper low back into northern KS. The GFS seems
to be the more bullish solution with its QPF overnight and am a
little concerned this may be due to it developing a deeper system
then other solutions. Nevertheless have held onto POPs tonight
showing the potential for precip. Models show mostly subsidence
developing this evening across east central KS, so think any chance
for precip overnight will be across northern KS and along the NEB
boarder. There looks to be enough cold air moving in that the precip
could be in the form of snow after midnight as well. At this point
with temps forecast to be in the lower and mid 30s overnight and
models showing the better mid level frontogenesis setting up over
southeast NEB, think snow may only amount to a dusting before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A complicated forecast in the mid term as minor changes between
model runs create major changes in the location of optimal lift and
consequential precipitation, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, it does appear model guidance in
showing better consistency with an upper jet streak within the
northwest flow diving southeast towards the southern plains. As this
occurs, embedded lift enhances behind the departing upper low.
Better confidence in this system lead to higher precip chances for
the CWA Tuesday as the wave and cold front move through. Still
remains some uncertainty in strength of this wave. Cross sections
and previous runs reveal the GFS to be an outlier with the amount of
forcing and generous amounts of QPF Tuesday afternoon. Leaned closer
to the ECMWF and NAM solutions as ensemble solutions shows similar
characteristics with the evolution. As precipitation develops along
and behind the boundary, temps will fall close to or just above the
freezing mark. A mix of rain and snow is possible, transitioning to
all snow by early evening, and gradually exiting east central KS
Wednesday morning. At this time do not see areas of strong,
persistent lift and instability to indicate banding precip. Snow
ratios averaged at 12:1 lend to total snowfall accumulations near or
less than an inch by Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor
trends in the upcoming days as this system has the potential to
impact travel.

For Christmas Eve, southerly winds increase as a lee surface trough
builds, advecting warm air back into the CWA through Christmas Day.
Dry air advection slowly pushes east Wednesday afternoon, as north
central areas may break out into mostly sunny skies. Highs recover
into the upper 30s with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Southerly
winds increase Christmas Day as a slow moving upper trough enters
over the Rockies. Skies become mostly sunny for all of northeast
Kansas as increased WAA boosts highs in the upper 40s. Bulk of the
system and associated QPF passes to the north of the CWA Thursday
evening and Friday. Still could not rule out very light snow
impacting north central areas, otherwise no impacts are seen in
terms of precip. Another cold front cools highs back into the 30s
for the weekend as dry high pressure takes control of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP and FOE continue to hold at MVFR while expect MHK to dip below
1000ft agl cigs in the next hour or so. Rain moves across the
sites toward sunrise and continues through the morning. wind shifts
to westerly in the early afternoon and continues through the day.
While rain may diminish in intensity for the afternoon and
evening, still expect MVFR cigs and will continue to end of TAF
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220530
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP and FOE continue to hold at MVFR while expect MHK to dip below
1000ft agl cigs in the next hour or so. Rain moves across the
sites toward sunrise and continues through the morning. wind shifts
to westerly in the early afternoon and continues through the day.
While rain may diminish in intensity for the afternoon and
evening, still expect MVFR cigs and will continue to end of TAF
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220530
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP and FOE continue to hold at MVFR while expect MHK to dip below
1000ft agl cigs in the next hour or so. Rain moves across the
sites toward sunrise and continues through the morning. wind shifts
to westerly in the early afternoon and continues through the day.
While rain may diminish in intensity for the afternoon and
evening, still expect MVFR cigs and will continue to end of TAF
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
532 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP should hold right at MVFR conditions for a few more hours
before IFR conditions impact all three terminals. Precipitation
should also get heavier overnight before decreasing mid morning
hours. Next sweep of energy moves through in the afternoon and
brings winds westerly and another band of precipitation, although
think cigs will be a bit higher in the MVFR category.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
532 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TOP should hold right at MVFR conditions for a few more hours
before IFR conditions impact all three terminals. Precipitation
should also get heavier overnight before decreasing mid morning
hours. Next sweep of energy moves through in the afternoon and
brings winds westerly and another band of precipitation, although
think cigs will be a bit higher in the MVFR category.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The main challenges for the TAF period will continue to be the
CIG/VIS categories. IFR is expected to persist during the first
half of the period. Winds will be fairly steady but there is
potential for some gusts into the mid 20 mph range as we see some
directional changes come into play. Some uncertainty remains with
light areas of drizzle along with potential for light rain. But
for now, just keeping mention of drizzle. Lower confidence with
the actual CIG/VIS remains with these areas as well, but generally
improving conditions can be expected near the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

A longer wave-length upper level trough across the plains will
amplify as a short wave trough over MT digs southeast into NE.
Residual moisture was advecting northward across eastern KS. The
resulting isentropic lift will cause patchy drizzle, areas of light
fog and isolated showers this evening. As the H5 trough digs
southeast into NE, stronger ascent will cause more widespread rain
to develop across the CWA late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Due to limited moisture, QPF will generally be less than 0.15".

The upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low over NE on
Monday. The best rain chances will occur during the morning hours
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Drier air at 700mb will advect
across the CWA bringing an end to the rain showers through the
afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly cloudy, though skies may clear
during the afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA.
Highs will range from the mid 40s across the northwest counties to
the lower 50s across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Tomorrow night the main upper level low will be centered just
northeast of the forecast area. Several pieces of energy will rotate
around the main low and pass over eastern KS. The models strengthen
this energy as it phases with energy lifting through the base of
the main trough. The models vary on the interaction of this
phasing and therefore the strength of the upper low as it passes
overhead. The 12z NAM was the strongest and generates the most lift
across the area during the day Tuesday into Thursday night. The
lift is still relatively weak and does not appear to amount to
much accumulation. At the moment there is barely any lift to
generate ice in the cloud and surface temperatures may warm well
above freezing therefore mentioned rain and or snow in the
forecast. This is especially true during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. That system quickly moves off to the east Wednesday
morning as northwest flow develops behind the departing trough.
Another weak system aloft is forecast to pass north of the area
Thursday night and looks to bring a slight chance for snow to
north central KS. Although the models have been rather
inconsistent with handling this system. The remainder of the
period appears dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The main challenges for the TAF period will continue to be the
CIG/VIS categories. IFR is expected to persist during the first
half of the period. Winds will be fairly steady but there is
potential for some gusts into the mid 20 mph range as we see some
directional changes come into play. Some uncertainty remains with
light areas of drizzle along with potential for light rain. But
for now, just keeping mention of drizzle. Lower confidence with
the actual CIG/VIS remains with these areas as well, but generally
improving conditions can be expected near the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211747
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The main challenges for the TAF period will continue to be the
CIG/VIS categories. IFR is expected to persist during the first
half of the period. Winds will be fairly steady but there is
potential for some gusts into the mid 20 mph range as we see some
directional changes come into play. Some uncertainty remains with
light areas of drizzle along with potential for light rain. But
for now, just keeping mention of drizzle. Lower confidence with
the actual CIG/VIS remains with these areas as well, but generally
improving conditions can be expected near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211747
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

The main challenges for the TAF period will continue to be the
CIG/VIS categories. IFR is expected to persist during the first
half of the period. Winds will be fairly steady but there is
potential for some gusts into the mid 20 mph range as we see some
directional changes come into play. Some uncertainty remains with
light areas of drizzle along with potential for light rain. But
for now, just keeping mention of drizzle. Lower confidence with
the actual CIG/VIS remains with these areas as well, but generally
improving conditions can be expected near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 509 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Satellite continues to show MVFR stratus advancing northeast, and
with southerly flow expected to maintain some moisture transport
north think the stratus will hang tough through tonight. Models
continue to show increasing isentropic lift through the afternoon
so drizzle is possible. Confidence in timing is low so opted to
keep VSBY forecast in the MVFR range. However if drizzle develops,
it will likely cause VSBY to be between 1SM and 3SM. Have also
leaned towards keeping CIGS above 1 KFT but there could be some
periods where CIGS drop below 1 KFT. Increasing large scale
forcing late tonight should lead to some -RA moving into the
terminals between 07Z and 09Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 509 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Satellite continues to show MVFR stratus advancing northeast, and
with southerly flow expected to maintain some moisture transport
north think the stratus will hang tough through tonight. Models
continue to show increasing isentropic lift through the afternoon
so drizzle is possible. Confidence in timing is low so opted to
keep VSBY forecast in the MVFR range. However if drizzle develops,
it will likely cause VSBY to be between 1SM and 3SM. Have also
leaned towards keeping CIGS above 1 KFT but there could be some
periods where CIGS drop below 1 KFT. Increasing large scale
forcing late tonight should lead to some -RA moving into the
terminals between 07Z and 09Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210904
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 210904
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210904
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210904
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

08Z water vapor shows a broad upper level trough over the central
part of the country with the upper level jet streak moving inland
over the pacific northwest. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
has gradually be moving out into the northern plains while surface
ridging remained along the gulf coast. An area of stratus could be
seen on satellite moving back north into the forecast area.

For today, the southerly low level flow between the surface trough
to the northwest and ridging southeast of the forecast area should
continue bringing moisture north. Although with the gulf not
completely open due to the ridge axis along the coast, dewpoints are
progged to only increase to around 40 today which makes some since
looking at obs across OK and north TX. This moisture advection
should be enough however to keep the stratus moving north. The NAM
and RAP develop some weak isentropic upglide on the 280 and 285K
surfaces this morning and keep it persisting into the afternoon.
Because of this will maintain a mention of drizzle in the forecast
through the day. Weak large scale forcing and little or no deep
vertical motion to moisten the mid levels leads me to think
measurable precip is less than 20 percent through the day. Cloud
cover should prevent temps from warming much today, so have highs
generally in the mid 40s. Models continue to deepen a shortwave
tonight over NEB. As the wave deepens, models prog some decent PVA
and increasing Q vector convergence to overspread northeast KS. Mid
level lapse rates appear to be near the moist adiabat so there does
not appear to be much in the way of instability. Nevertheless the
increasing forcing and decent moisture already in place should lead
to some rain showers moving into parts of the forecast area late
tonight and through the early morning hours Monday. Have increased
POPs with likely chances for northeast KS and chances diminishing
further south where model progs of forcing are not as strong.
Southerly winds keeping dewpoints in the upper 30s combined with
overcast skies and no radiational cooling should lead to min temps
in the lower 40s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

Rain showers may linger across east central Kansas Monday as the
upper low slowly rotates over South Dakota. Amount of dry air aloft
differs between guidance and is based on the strength and track of
the upper low. Thinking the dry air intruding may be too progressive
with the NAM, so sided with the slower GFS/ECMWF solution and
therefore mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Warm air advection
in the lower levels warms temps to near 50 degrees ahead of the
front. As an upper jet dives southeast from the Rockies, it will dig
the southern stream wave further south and east into Texas while
gradually lifting the upper low northward through Tuesday. In
conjunction with a surface front arriving early Tuesday, embedded
areas of enhanced vorticity wrapping around the upper low may
produce light snow near the Kansas and Nebraska border. Otherwise
most areas remain dry through the afternoon with highs rising a few
degrees from morning lows into the 30s. Amount of stratus will once
again depend on the upper low position. It is possible southern areas
could see lesser cloud cover in the afternoon. In addition, strong
northerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon between 15 and 25 mph
sustained from the northwest. Gusts near 35 mph are likely
especially for north central Kansas.

Airmass modifies as winds back to the south in advance of a lee
trough Wednesday and Christmas Day. Southerly winds between 10 and
15 mph carry warm, subsident air across the CWA, raising highs from
near 40 on Wednesday to upper 40s for Christmas Day. During this
time, a shortwave trough develops across the western CONUS, bringing
rain and snow to elevated terrain. As it enters the central plains,
questions still remain on the depth and track. Latest ECMWF today
exhibits a very different solution with an open short wave trough
impacting the central plains Thursday evening/Friday, similar to
what the GFS has advertised the past few days. Did not feel
comfortable completely removing pops given the large
inconsistencies, and will therefore leave slight chances until
better consistency is seen one way or the other. A cold air mass
behind the front is more likely, dropping highs Friday and Saturday
in the 30s. Forecast soundings suggest any precip would be in the
form of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 210547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central Rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210547
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central Rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MVFR cigs have moved into MHK and are expected to move into
TOP/FOE in the next few hours. Could see a few breaks but think
these cigs will prevail through the day on Sunday. Did not add
drizzle to terminals as lift is weak and may remain in obs as BR.
Second system approaches right behind first to keep clouds and
possibly light precipitation going into the next overnight period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 202334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central Rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Getting a break from MVFR cigs for a few hours this evening. Next
deck moving northward out of south central KS and should impact
terminals 03-06z and continue through Sunday. Could see some
morning/early afternoon drizzle at TOP/FOE sites, but not
confident enough for a TAF group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 202334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central Rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Getting a break from MVFR cigs for a few hours this evening. Next
deck moving northward out of south central KS and should impact
terminals 03-06z and continue through Sunday. Could see some
morning/early afternoon drizzle at TOP/FOE sites, but not
confident enough for a TAF group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 202125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The challenge for this TAF period will be CIGs/VIS restrictions.
Currently, the moisture is well overdone by guidance. Based on
satellite and current obs upstream, wouldn`t expect enough
moisture to build back into the region until roughly the 3Z time
frame near KMHK and 6Z time frame over the KTOP/KFOE region.
Continued mixing should allow CIGs to remain mostly above IFR
restrictions at this time, but confidence is lower for the last
6hrs of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 202125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A weak upper level trough moving eastward across the central rockies
this afternoon will move east into the plains on Sunday. Ahead of
the upper level trough residual moisture across TX and OK will
advect northward later tonight into Sunday. The resulting
WAA/isentropic lift will cause low stratus to form and move north
across the area during the evening hours. Areas of fog and patchy
drizzle will develop after midnight from south to north across the
CWA. Temperatures across the CWA should be in the mid to upper 30s
by the time the drizzle develops towards sunrise.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with areas of fog and patchy drizzle
through the morning hours. The drizzle may continue on and off
through the day as weak lift continues ahead of the H5 trough. The
low-level WAA advection should warm temperatures into the lower to
mid 40s despite the cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A shortwave trough will move eastward across the Plains Sunday night
while another trough/upper low moves southeast out of Canada.
Increasing large scale forcing ahead of each trough will bring a
chance of light rain to the area. The better forcing, mid level
frontogenesis and convergence of Q vectors will be across eastern
Nebraska into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where highest
probabilities are expected. A cold front will move through during
the day with bulk of cool advection in the late afternoon and
evening. Highs Monday will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in
warm advection pattern despite cloud cover. Conversely highs Tuesday
will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler with highs mainly in the upper
30s.

Energy rotating around the upper centered over northeast Nebraska
will be focused further north and no loner expect any precipitation
in the far northern counties on Tuesday.

Upper flow transitions from northwest to a more west to southwest
upper flow on Christmas Day with both the ECMWF and the GFS coming
into more agreement in the overall pattern. Each is still developing
a lee side low over southeast Colorado with it moving northeast
across Kansas Thursday night and into northeast Missouri or
southeast Iowa by 12Z Friday. 12Z runs of both the ECMWF and the GFS
are focusing precipitation further north in Nebraska than previous
runs and ensembles. Will continue to keep a slight chance of snow
for Thursday night and Friday. Will need to monitor later runs, but
for now will continue in a low confidence forecast. Thickness
profiles suggest that whatever falls will primarily be light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The challenge for this TAF period will be CIGs/VIS restrictions.
Currently, the moisture is well overdone by guidance. Based on
satellite and current obs upstream, wouldn`t expect enough
moisture to build back into the region until roughly the 3Z time
frame near KMHK and 6Z time frame over the KTOP/KFOE region.
Continued mixing should allow CIGs to remain mostly above IFR
restrictions at this time, but confidence is lower for the last
6hrs of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 201733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave lifting east through the
OH river valley while a second wave swings through the mid MO river
valley. Further west a weak mid level ridge was noted over the
Rockies while another trough moves towards the Pacific northeast
coast. Surface obs show the ridge axis has moved to the southern
plains with high pressure centered near IN and OH. A lee trough of
low pressure has gradually been deepening over the last several
hours.

For today and tonight, the models do not have a strong signal for
large scale forcing. However there is expected to be gradual height
falls spread east as the system along the northwest coast propagates
east. Thinking is with relatively dry mid levels as noted on the 00Z
RAOB, any weak forcing will not amount to much chance for measurable
precip. Again much of the challenges come from the low level
moisture trapped within the boundary layer. Recent satellite imagery
shows clearing slowly but steadily moving east and think this may
be due to the subsidence provided by the shortwave moving through
the mid MO river valley. Models have done poorly with the low level
clouds and do not have much confidence in the NAM`s prog of surface
RH since it always seems to keep temps to cool from the snow cover.
However it is one of the solutions that seems to have an idea of the
stratus clearing in it`s 925MB prog of RH. So think there is
actually a decent chance of seeing some sunshine today as there
appear to even be some holes in the stratus over northern OK.
Because of this, have bumped up highs for western and southern
counties with skies becoming at least partly sunny. Kept highs in
the upper 30s for northeast KS where there is a little more snow
cover and longer fetch of south and southwesterly winds over the
snow. Tonight the surface trough of low pressure is progged to
gradually deepen favoring the southerly low level flow to persist.
With this in mind think low level moisture is probably going to make
a run at the forecast area with stratus returning. Have kept lows in
the lower and mid 30s thinking cloud cover would prevent much
radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Extended period is characterized by an active upper air pattern with
multiple waves of energy impacting the CWA through the week. First
upper shortwave trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest while a
lead wave ushers east over southern Ontario. Isentropic ascent
increases in advance of the wave as the low levels remain saturated
with the stratus. Periods of light drizzle are possible Sunday
afternoon before the main wave impacts the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. The latest GFS still appears to be the outlier compared to
the GEM, NAM, and ECMWF with the more southern track of the upper
wave. Sided closer to consensus which gives lighter amounts of
rainfall across the area, focused primarily on Monday morning.
Increased southerly winds throughout the profile will usher warmer
air northward, bringing highs to the middle 40s Sunday and upper
40s, perhaps 50 on Monday. Uncertainty greatly increases after
Monday as the system slowly lifts northward with ridging building
over the eastern CONUS. Weak embedded areas of lift rotate on the
backside of the low, warranting slight chances for precip Monday
evening into Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible for east
central areas Monday evening and a rain snow mix over far northeast
areas Tuesday. No accumulation is expected. Certainty in wind speeds
is high as guidance is consistent on strong northerly speeds between
15 and 20 mph sustained Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front,
temps Monday night cool below freezing while highs Tuesday are 10
degrees cooler near 40. Some possibility we could see sunshine on
Tuesday, depending on where the upper low and subsequent moisture
resides.

Best chances for mostly sunny skies return in time for Christmas Eve
as dry northwest flow ensues. Great uncertainty lies in the next
trough progged to dig southeast over the Rockies on Christmas Day.
The track of the departing upper trough will greatly influence the
timing and moisture availability for the incoming system. At this
time, I added a slight chance for precip Thursday evening and Friday
as guidance is split between a decent storm system and a weak/dry
system. Also tweaked highs Friday down a few degrees as it appears
the cold air arrives faster than previous runs. Precip type at this
time is difficult to discern but may be a snow or mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The challenge for this TAF period will be CIGs/VIS restrictions.
Currently, the moisture is well overdone by guidance. Based on
satellite and current obs upstream, wouldn`t expect enough
moisture to build back into the region until roughly the 3Z time
frame near KMHK and 6Z time frame over the KTOP/KFOE region.
Continued mixing should allow CIGs to remain mostly above IFR
restrictions at this time, but confidence is lower for the last
6hrs of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 201733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave lifting east through the
OH river valley while a second wave swings through the mid MO river
valley. Further west a weak mid level ridge was noted over the
Rockies while another trough moves towards the Pacific northeast
coast. Surface obs show the ridge axis has moved to the southern
plains with high pressure centered near IN and OH. A lee trough of
low pressure has gradually been deepening over the last several
hours.

For today and tonight, the models do not have a strong signal for
large scale forcing. However there is expected to be gradual height
falls spread east as the system along the northwest coast propagates
east. Thinking is with relatively dry mid levels as noted on the 00Z
RAOB, any weak forcing will not amount to much chance for measurable
precip. Again much of the challenges come from the low level
moisture trapped within the boundary layer. Recent satellite imagery
shows clearing slowly but steadily moving east and think this may
be due to the subsidence provided by the shortwave moving through
the mid MO river valley. Models have done poorly with the low level
clouds and do not have much confidence in the NAM`s prog of surface
RH since it always seems to keep temps to cool from the snow cover.
However it is one of the solutions that seems to have an idea of the
stratus clearing in it`s 925MB prog of RH. So think there is
actually a decent chance of seeing some sunshine today as there
appear to even be some holes in the stratus over northern OK.
Because of this, have bumped up highs for western and southern
counties with skies becoming at least partly sunny. Kept highs in
the upper 30s for northeast KS where there is a little more snow
cover and longer fetch of south and southwesterly winds over the
snow. Tonight the surface trough of low pressure is progged to
gradually deepen favoring the southerly low level flow to persist.
With this in mind think low level moisture is probably going to make
a run at the forecast area with stratus returning. Have kept lows in
the lower and mid 30s thinking cloud cover would prevent much
radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Extended period is characterized by an active upper air pattern with
multiple waves of energy impacting the CWA through the week. First
upper shortwave trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest while a
lead wave ushers east over southern Ontario. Isentropic ascent
increases in advance of the wave as the low levels remain saturated
with the stratus. Periods of light drizzle are possible Sunday
afternoon before the main wave impacts the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. The latest GFS still appears to be the outlier compared to
the GEM, NAM, and ECMWF with the more southern track of the upper
wave. Sided closer to consensus which gives lighter amounts of
rainfall across the area, focused primarily on Monday morning.
Increased southerly winds throughout the profile will usher warmer
air northward, bringing highs to the middle 40s Sunday and upper
40s, perhaps 50 on Monday. Uncertainty greatly increases after
Monday as the system slowly lifts northward with ridging building
over the eastern CONUS. Weak embedded areas of lift rotate on the
backside of the low, warranting slight chances for precip Monday
evening into Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible for east
central areas Monday evening and a rain snow mix over far northeast
areas Tuesday. No accumulation is expected. Certainty in wind speeds
is high as guidance is consistent on strong northerly speeds between
15 and 20 mph sustained Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front,
temps Monday night cool below freezing while highs Tuesday are 10
degrees cooler near 40. Some possibility we could see sunshine on
Tuesday, depending on where the upper low and subsequent moisture
resides.

Best chances for mostly sunny skies return in time for Christmas Eve
as dry northwest flow ensues. Great uncertainty lies in the next
trough progged to dig southeast over the Rockies on Christmas Day.
The track of the departing upper trough will greatly influence the
timing and moisture availability for the incoming system. At this
time, I added a slight chance for precip Thursday evening and Friday
as guidance is split between a decent storm system and a weak/dry
system. Also tweaked highs Friday down a few degrees as it appears
the cold air arrives faster than previous runs. Precip type at this
time is difficult to discern but may be a snow or mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The challenge for this TAF period will be CIGs/VIS restrictions.
Currently, the moisture is well overdone by guidance. Based on
satellite and current obs upstream, wouldn`t expect enough
moisture to build back into the region until roughly the 3Z time
frame near KMHK and 6Z time frame over the KTOP/KFOE region.
Continued mixing should allow CIGs to remain mostly above IFR
restrictions at this time, but confidence is lower for the last
6hrs of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201100
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave lifting east through the
OH river valley while a second wave swings through the mid MO river
valley. Further west a weak mid level ridge was noted over the
Rockies while another trough moves towards the Pacific northeast
coast. Surface obs show the ridge axis has moved to the southern
plains with high pressure centered near IN and OH. A lee trough of
low pressure has gradually been deepening over the last several
hours.

For today and tonight, the models do not have a strong signal for
large scale forcing. However there is expected to be gradual height
falls spread east as the system along the northwest coast propagates
east. Thinking is with relatively dry mid levels as noted on the 00Z
RAOB, any weak forcing will not amount to much chance for measurable
precip. Again much of the challenges come from the low level
moisture trapped within the boundary layer. Recent satellite imagery
shows clearing slowly but steadily moving east and think this may
be due to the subsidence provided by the shortwave moving through
the mid MO river valley. Models have done poorly with the low level
clouds and do not have much confidence in the NAM`s prog of surface
RH since it always seems to keep temps to cool from the snow cover.
However it is one of the solutions that seems to have an idea of the
stratus clearing in it`s 925MB prog of RH. So think there is
actually a decent chance of seeing some sunshine today as there
appear to even be some holes in the stratus over northern OK.
Because of this, have bumped up highs for western and southern
counties with skies becoming at least partly sunny. Kept highs in
the upper 30s for northeast KS where there is a little more snow
cover and longer fetch of south and southwesterly winds over the
snow. Tonight the surface trough of low pressure is progged to
gradually deepen favoring the southerly low level flow to persist.
With this in mind think low level moisture is probably going to make
a run at the forecast area with stratus returning. Have kept lows in
the lower and mid 30s thinking cloud cover would prevent much
radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Extended period is characterized by an active upper air pattern with
multiple waves of energy impacting the CWA through the week. First
upper shortwave trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest while a
lead wave ushers east over southern Ontario. Isentropic ascent
increases in advance of the wave as the low levels remain saturated
with the stratus. Periods of light drizzle are possible Sunday
afternoon before the main wave impacts the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. The latest GFS still appears to be the outlier compared to
the GEM, NAM, and ECMWF with the more southern track of the upper
wave. Sided closer to consensus which gives lighter amounts of
rainfall across the area, focused primarily on Monday morning.
Increased southerly winds throughout the profile will usher warmer
air northward, bringing highs to the middle 40s Sunday and upper
40s, perhaps 50 on Monday. Uncertainty greatly increases after
Monday as the system slowly lifts northward with ridging building
over the eastern CONUS. Weak embedded areas of lift rotate on the
backside of the low, warranting slight chances for precip Monday
evening into Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible for east
central areas Monday evening and a rain snow mix over far northeast
areas Tuesday. No accumulation is expected. Certainty in wind speeds
is high as guidance is consistent on strong northerly speeds between
15 and 20 mph sustained Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front,
temps Monday night cool below freezing while highs Tuesday are 10
degrees cooler near 40. Some possibility we could see sunshine on
Tuesday, depending on where the upper low and subsequent moisture
resides.

Best chances for mostly sunny skies return in time for Christmas Eve
as dry northwest flow ensues. Great uncertainty lies in the next
trough progged to dig southeast over the Rockies on Christmas Day.
The track of the departing upper trough will greatly influence the
timing and moisture availability for the incoming system. At this
time, I added a slight chance for precip Thursday evening and Friday
as guidance is split between a decent storm system and a weak/dry
system. Also tweaked highs Friday down a few degrees as it appears
the cold air arrives faster than previous runs. Precip type at this
time is difficult to discern but may be a snow or mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With clearing of the stratus making steady progress east, will go
with a VFR forecast for today thinking that subsidence initially
and sunshine with mixing later this afternoon will keep the low
clouds at bay. Lee trough and southerly low level flow should
allow the stratus to move back in overnight. With models handling
the low level moisture poorly, confidence in when and at what
altitude clouds return is low. Therefore left CIGS in the MVFR
range with a best guess on timing based on the NAM prog of 925 RH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200905
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave lifting east through the
OH river valley while a second wave swings through the mid MO river
valley. Further west a weak mid level ridge was noted over the
Rockies while another trough moves towards the Pacific northeast
coast. Surface obs show the ridge axis has moved to the southern
plains with high pressure centered near IN and OH. A lee trough of
low pressure has gradually been deepening over the last several
hours.

For today and tonight, the models do not have a strong signal for
large scale forcing. However there is expected to be gradual height
falls spread east as the system along the northwest coast propagates
east. Thinking is with relatively dry mid levels as noted on the 00Z
RAOB, any weak forcing will not amount to much chance for measurable
precip. Again much of the challenges come from the low level
moisture trapped within the boundary layer. Recent satellite imagery
shows clearing slowly but steadily moving east and think this may
be due to the subsidence provided by the shortwave moving through
the mid MO river valley. Models have done poorly with the low level
clouds and do not have much confidence in the NAM`s prog of surface
RH since it always seems to keep temps to cool from the snow cover.
However it is one of the solutions that seems to have an idea of the
stratus clearing in it`s 925MB prog of RH. So think there is
actually a decent chance of seeing some sunshine today as there
appear to even be some holes in the stratus over northern OK.
Because of this, have bumped up highs for western and southern
counties with skies becoming at least partly sunny. Kept highs in
the upper 30s for northeast KS where there is a little more snow
cover and longer fetch of south and southwesterly winds over the
snow. Tonight the surface trough of low pressure is progged to
gradually deepen favoring the southerly low level flow to persist.
With this in mind think low level moisture is probably going to make
a run at the forecast area with stratus returning. Have kept lows in
the lower and mid 30s thinking cloud cover would prevent much
radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Extended period is characterized by an active upper air pattern with
multiple waves of energy impacting the CWA through the week. First
upper shortwave trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest while a
lead wave ushers east over southern Ontario. Isentropic ascent
increases in advance of the wave as the low levels remain saturated
with the stratus. Periods of light drizzle are possible Sunday
afternoon before the main wave impacts the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. The latest GFS still appears to be the outlier compared to
the GEM, NAM, and ECMWF with the more southern track of the upper
wave. Sided closer to consensus which gives lighter amounts of
rainfall across the area, focused primarily on Monday morning.
Increased southerly winds throughout the profile will usher warmer
air northward, bringing highs to the middle 40s Sunday and upper
40s, perhaps 50 on Monday. Uncertainty greatly increases after
Monday as the system slowly lifts northward with ridging building
over the eastern CONUS. Weak embedded areas of lift rotate on the
backside of the low, warranting slight chances for precip Monday
evening into Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible for east
central areas Monday evening and a rain snow mix over far northeast
areas Tuesday. No accumulation is expected. Certainty in wind speeds
is high as guidance is consistent on strong northerly speeds between
15 and 20 mph sustained Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front,
temps Monday night cool below freezing while highs Tuesday are 10
degrees cooler near 40. Some possibility we could see sunshine on
Tuesday, depending on where the upper low and subsequent moisture
resides.

Best chances for mostly sunny skies return in time for Christmas Eve
as dry northwest flow ensues. Great uncertainty lies in the next
trough progged to dig southeast over the Rockies on Christmas Day.
The track of the departing upper trough will greatly influence the
timing and moisture availability for the incoming system. At this
time, I added a slight chance for precip Thursday evening and Friday
as guidance is split between a decent storm system and a weak/dry
system. Also tweaked highs Friday down a few degrees as it appears
the cold air arrives faster than previous runs. Precip type at this
time is difficult to discern but may be a snow or mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tricky aviation forecast as nose of drier low level air works
toward MHK. Have added a tempo group early on but expect clouds to
build back in. Did go ahead and bring cigs up MVFR as think cigs
should stay above 1000ft agl. Did keep afternoon clearing trend
for MHK but not yet sold on TOP/FOE as moisture from the south is
quick to return later Saturday along with clouds and lower visbys.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200905
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave lifting east through the
OH river valley while a second wave swings through the mid MO river
valley. Further west a weak mid level ridge was noted over the
Rockies while another trough moves towards the Pacific northeast
coast. Surface obs show the ridge axis has moved to the southern
plains with high pressure centered near IN and OH. A lee trough of
low pressure has gradually been deepening over the last several
hours.

For today and tonight, the models do not have a strong signal for
large scale forcing. However there is expected to be gradual height
falls spread east as the system along the northwest coast propagates
east. Thinking is with relatively dry mid levels as noted on the 00Z
RAOB, any weak forcing will not amount to much chance for measurable
precip. Again much of the challenges come from the low level
moisture trapped within the boundary layer. Recent satellite imagery
shows clearing slowly but steadily moving east and think this may
be due to the subsidence provided by the shortwave moving through
the mid MO river valley. Models have done poorly with the low level
clouds and do not have much confidence in the NAM`s prog of surface
RH since it always seems to keep temps to cool from the snow cover.
However it is one of the solutions that seems to have an idea of the
stratus clearing in it`s 925MB prog of RH. So think there is
actually a decent chance of seeing some sunshine today as there
appear to even be some holes in the stratus over northern OK.
Because of this, have bumped up highs for western and southern
counties with skies becoming at least partly sunny. Kept highs in
the upper 30s for northeast KS where there is a little more snow
cover and longer fetch of south and southwesterly winds over the
snow. Tonight the surface trough of low pressure is progged to
gradually deepen favoring the southerly low level flow to persist.
With this in mind think low level moisture is probably going to make
a run at the forecast area with stratus returning. Have kept lows in
the lower and mid 30s thinking cloud cover would prevent much
radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Extended period is characterized by an active upper air pattern with
multiple waves of energy impacting the CWA through the week. First
upper shortwave trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest while a
lead wave ushers east over southern Ontario. Isentropic ascent
increases in advance of the wave as the low levels remain saturated
with the stratus. Periods of light drizzle are possible Sunday
afternoon before the main wave impacts the CWA Sunday night and
Monday. The latest GFS still appears to be the outlier compared to
the GEM, NAM, and ECMWF with the more southern track of the upper
wave. Sided closer to consensus which gives lighter amounts of
rainfall across the area, focused primarily on Monday morning.
Increased southerly winds throughout the profile will usher warmer
air northward, bringing highs to the middle 40s Sunday and upper
40s, perhaps 50 on Monday. Uncertainty greatly increases after
Monday as the system slowly lifts northward with ridging building
over the eastern CONUS. Weak embedded areas of lift rotate on the
backside of the low, warranting slight chances for precip Monday
evening into Tuesday. Light rain showers are possible for east
central areas Monday evening and a rain snow mix over far northeast
areas Tuesday. No accumulation is expected. Certainty in wind speeds
is high as guidance is consistent on strong northerly speeds between
15 and 20 mph sustained Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front,
temps Monday night cool below freezing while highs Tuesday are 10
degrees cooler near 40. Some possibility we could see sunshine on
Tuesday, depending on where the upper low and subsequent moisture
resides.

Best chances for mostly sunny skies return in time for Christmas Eve
as dry northwest flow ensues. Great uncertainty lies in the next
trough progged to dig southeast over the Rockies on Christmas Day.
The track of the departing upper trough will greatly influence the
timing and moisture availability for the incoming system. At this
time, I added a slight chance for precip Thursday evening and Friday
as guidance is split between a decent storm system and a weak/dry
system. Also tweaked highs Friday down a few degrees as it appears
the cold air arrives faster than previous runs. Precip type at this
time is difficult to discern but may be a snow or mix of rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tricky aviation forecast as nose of drier low level air works
toward MHK. Have added a tempo group early on but expect clouds to
build back in. Did go ahead and bring cigs up MVFR as think cigs
should stay above 1000ft agl. Did keep afternoon clearing trend
for MHK but not yet sold on TOP/FOE as moisture from the south is
quick to return later Saturday along with clouds and lower visbys.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200529
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining
snowpack.

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tricky aviation forecast as nose of drier low level air works
toward MHK. Have added a tempo group early on but expect clouds to
build back in. Did go ahead and bring cigs up MVFR as think cigs
should stay above 1000ft agl. Did keep afternoon clearing trend
for MHK but not yet sold on TOP/FOE as moisture from the south is
quick to return later Saturday along with clouds and lower visbys.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200529
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining
snowpack.

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Tricky aviation forecast as nose of drier low level air works
toward MHK. Have added a tempo group early on but expect clouds to
build back in. Did go ahead and bring cigs up MVFR as think cigs
should stay above 1000ft agl. Did keep afternoon clearing trend
for MHK but not yet sold on TOP/FOE as moisture from the south is
quick to return later Saturday along with clouds and lower visbys.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining
snowpack.

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Starting out at terminals with MVFR conditions but expect to drop
back down to IFR as the evening progresses. Expect to lift once
again as southwest winds develop and lift back to MVFR, and think
MHK will lift to VFR for a few hours in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining
snowpack.

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR conditions will last through most the next 24 hours. There may
be a brief period where ceilings will rise to 1000 to 1400 feet
this afternoon. After 02Z SAT the stratus will lower to 600 to 900
feet. visibilites will rise to 6 to 8SM this afternoon but drop to
2 to 4SM after 02Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the central and
southern plains this afternoon. Patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle
continued across east central KS. Temperatures at 1 PM were right at
the freezing mark across most of the CWA. Temperatures may warm
another 1 to 3 degree into the mid 30s through the remainder of the
afternoon.

Tonight, southwesterly winds at the surface up to 950mb will advect
residual moisture northward across the CWA. Areas of fog will
develop from south to north across the CWA. I cannot rule out some
patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures will only drop
into the lower 30s to upper 20s. Even if patchy freezing drizzle
develops most of the treated roads should remain damp. Side streets
and elevated surfaces may become slick due to the patchy freezing
drizzle or the residual moisture freezing on road surface.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Warm advection continues Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough crossing the Rockies. Models are in
agreement with a lead wave moving out of the trough and across the
Plains by Sunday morning with another wave on its heels in the
afternoon. Low level moisture will be in place with some lift in the
low level could see some drizzle across the east central Kansas
counties during the day. Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the
mid and upper 40s with the lower temps in the deeper remaining
snowpack.

Sunday night and Monday the main upper trough will move across the
Plains moving through yielding the higher precipitation chances
across the area. Moisture and additional energy wrapping around the
upper low will bring a chance of light precipitation into northeast
Kansas in the form of light snow. Prior to then all precipitation
will fall as rain from Sunday through Monday with some rain and snow
mix in far northeast Kansas Monday night as colder air arrives.

Temperatures will cool down on Tuesday almost 10 or 15 degrees from
Mondays highs in the upper 40s to around 50s. So highs Tuesday will
range from the middle 30s to around 40. For the mid week period
northwest flow becomes Zonal or southwest on Christmas Day. The
ECMWF has a deeper trough moving across the Plains. Both models
develop a surface low pressure area and move it across Kansas.
Models have been tending northward and its still looking like bulk
of precipitation will be to the northwest of the CWA in Nebraska.
Will maintain a small chance of rain and snow, but confidence is not
high at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR conditions will last through most the next 24 hours. There may
be a brief period where ceilings will rise to 1000 to 1400 feet
this afternoon. After 02Z SAT the stratus will lower to 600 to 900
feet. visibilites will rise to 6 to 8SM this afternoon but drop to
2 to 4SM after 02Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191802
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

08Z water vapor imagery indicated there were a couple waves within a
somewhat slow split flow over the plains. The stronger wave was
lifting through the southern plains with some decent lightning noted
in eastern TX. A second weaker wave was noted over southeastern MT.
At the surface a high pressure system centered over the central and
upper MS river valley was nosing into eastern KS with a ridge axis
bisecting the forecast area.

For today and tonight, the better forcing from the shortwaves looks
to only glance the forecast area. Forecast soundings from the
RAP/NAM/GFS indicated a decent amount of dry air in the mid levels
and prog a westerly wind at 850 and above to continue advecting dry
air in from the west. So with the weak forcing unlikely to overcome
the dry air in mid levels, have maintained a dry forecast through
tonight. Really the main forecast challenge is the boundary layer
moisture and pesky stratus. All the models fall to mix out the low
level inversion and the boundary layer moisture. This seems to make
some since with the expansive stratus deck already in place and snow
cover limiting any insolation to warm surface temps. Therefore have
leaned towards an overcast sky through tonight. Isentropic surfaces
show only weak if any isentropic upglide and appear to focus this
mainly across MO, so concerns for drizzle are minimal today as well.
About the only uncertainty with the forecast is the NAM`s tendency
to over due the impact of the snow cover and keeping the boundary
layer to cool for to long. However with the GFS and RAP showing
similar solutions, think the low clouds scattering out is a low
chance occurrence. Highs today are expected to be in the mid 30s
with no real low level warm air advection and clouds holding on
strong. For tonight have kept skies cloudy, but if for some reason
we were to clear out, fog would become more likely. I don`t have a
lot of confidence in this happening. Nevertheless have added a
mention of patchy fog after midnight due to forecast soundings
showing the potential for some fog, especially across north central
KS. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 20 to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Patchy fog is expected to linger through mid morning Saturday before
lifting to mostly cloudy stratus. A developing surface trough over
eastern CO will pick up winds around 10 mph, attempting to mix out
the stratus in the lower levels. Best chances for seeing peeks of
sunshine lie across central KS, with much of the CWA remaining
cloudy. Despite the warmer temps from guidance, believe the
lingering snow cover holds highs a few degrees cooler in north
central and far northeast KS where upper 30s are common. Areas with
little to no snow cover may reach the lower to middle 40s. Surface
trough begins to deepen on Sunday in response to the upper shortwave
trough coming onshore from the Pacific NW. Southwesterly winds
increase around 15 mph through the afternoon. A weaker lead trough
progresses over the northern plains Sunday morning, bringing a
chance for light drizzle. Freezing precip should not be a concern as
guidance is trending warmer near 40 degrees for morning lows.
Precip chances increase Sunday evening into Monday as the system
shifts east over the northern plains. Discrepancies remain on
guidance as the latest ECMWF is less amplified and impacting more
of the eastern CWA, similar to the GEM. In addition, the GFS is
more amplified from an upper jet streak rounding the southern edge
of the wave. Given this and the amount of saturation is relative
compared to previous systems, will continue with 30-40 pops until
more consistency is seen between runs. Bulk of the QPF is rain on
Monday as highs peak in the upper 40s. The freezing temps slide in
behind the departing wave where a rain and snow mix is possible
Monday evening. No accumulation is expected at this time.

An anomalous upper ridge builds eastward into the region Tuesday and
Wednesday giving the area a chance to clear out the stratus clouds.
Modified airmass in the wake of the system will only drop highs into
the low 40s for highs and lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. In
terms of Christmas Day, much uncertainty exists with the timing and
track of the next upper trough. Latest runs are trending slower with
the system, GFS being more progressive and impacting mainly north
central areas. Meanwhile the ECMWF is slower and places our area in
the dry slot. While confidence is below average, will maintain
forecast consistency with slight chances for a rain and snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR conditions will last through most the next 24 hours. There may
be a brief period where ceilings will rise to 1000 to 1400 feet
this afternoon. After 02Z SAT the stratus will lower to 600 to 900
feet. visibilites will rise to 6 to 8SM this afternoon but drop to
2 to 4SM after 02Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191802
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1202 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

08Z water vapor imagery indicated there were a couple waves within a
somewhat slow split flow over the plains. The stronger wave was
lifting through the southern plains with some decent lightning noted
in eastern TX. A second weaker wave was noted over southeastern MT.
At the surface a high pressure system centered over the central and
upper MS river valley was nosing into eastern KS with a ridge axis
bisecting the forecast area.

For today and tonight, the better forcing from the shortwaves looks
to only glance the forecast area. Forecast soundings from the
RAP/NAM/GFS indicated a decent amount of dry air in the mid levels
and prog a westerly wind at 850 and above to continue advecting dry
air in from the west. So with the weak forcing unlikely to overcome
the dry air in mid levels, have maintained a dry forecast through
tonight. Really the main forecast challenge is the boundary layer
moisture and pesky stratus. All the models fall to mix out the low
level inversion and the boundary layer moisture. This seems to make
some since with the expansive stratus deck already in place and snow
cover limiting any insolation to warm surface temps. Therefore have
leaned towards an overcast sky through tonight. Isentropic surfaces
show only weak if any isentropic upglide and appear to focus this
mainly across MO, so concerns for drizzle are minimal today as well.
About the only uncertainty with the forecast is the NAM`s tendency
to over due the impact of the snow cover and keeping the boundary
layer to cool for to long. However with the GFS and RAP showing
similar solutions, think the low clouds scattering out is a low
chance occurrence. Highs today are expected to be in the mid 30s
with no real low level warm air advection and clouds holding on
strong. For tonight have kept skies cloudy, but if for some reason
we were to clear out, fog would become more likely. I don`t have a
lot of confidence in this happening. Nevertheless have added a
mention of patchy fog after midnight due to forecast soundings
showing the potential for some fog, especially across north central
KS. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 20 to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Patchy fog is expected to linger through mid morning Saturday before
lifting to mostly cloudy stratus. A developing surface trough over
eastern CO will pick up winds around 10 mph, attempting to mix out
the stratus in the lower levels. Best chances for seeing peeks of
sunshine lie across central KS, with much of the CWA remaining
cloudy. Despite the warmer temps from guidance, believe the
lingering snow cover holds highs a few degrees cooler in north
central and far northeast KS where upper 30s are common. Areas with
little to no snow cover may reach the lower to middle 40s. Surface
trough begins to deepen on Sunday in response to the upper shortwave
trough coming onshore from the Pacific NW. Southwesterly winds
increase around 15 mph through the afternoon. A weaker lead trough
progresses over the northern plains Sunday morning, bringing a
chance for light drizzle. Freezing precip should not be a concern as
guidance is trending warmer near 40 degrees for morning lows.
Precip chances increase Sunday evening into Monday as the system
shifts east over the northern plains. Discrepancies remain on
guidance as the latest ECMWF is less amplified and impacting more
of the eastern CWA, similar to the GEM. In addition, the GFS is
more amplified from an upper jet streak rounding the southern edge
of the wave. Given this and the amount of saturation is relative
compared to previous systems, will continue with 30-40 pops until
more consistency is seen between runs. Bulk of the QPF is rain on
Monday as highs peak in the upper 40s. The freezing temps slide in
behind the departing wave where a rain and snow mix is possible
Monday evening. No accumulation is expected at this time.

An anomalous upper ridge builds eastward into the region Tuesday and
Wednesday giving the area a chance to clear out the stratus clouds.
Modified airmass in the wake of the system will only drop highs into
the low 40s for highs and lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. In
terms of Christmas Day, much uncertainty exists with the timing and
track of the next upper trough. Latest runs are trending slower with
the system, GFS being more progressive and impacting mainly north
central areas. Meanwhile the ECMWF is slower and places our area in
the dry slot. While confidence is below average, will maintain
forecast consistency with slight chances for a rain and snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR conditions will last through most the next 24 hours. There may
be a brief period where ceilings will rise to 1000 to 1400 feet
this afternoon. After 02Z SAT the stratus will lower to 600 to 900
feet. visibilites will rise to 6 to 8SM this afternoon but drop to
2 to 4SM after 02Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan







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