000
FXUS63 KTOP 190459
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1159 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW FOG GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. FEEL THAT HIGH CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD WITH VCTS GROUPS...ALTHOUGH THIS ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 190007
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM STORM POTENTIAL AND AVIATION FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN
OVERTURNING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
OUTFLOW SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SALINA TO EUREKA AT 7 PM. AN AREA OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CONCORDIA TO CLAY CENTER HAS ALSO BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS HAVE RECENTLY INITIALIZED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SALINA. ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO DICKINSON AND
MORRIS COUNTIES WHERE SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE
SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMING TO
AN END...THE STORMS SHOULD ALSO END FOR THE NIGHT BY 9 PM OR SO.
BEFORE 9...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. THE RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS HAS ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE...WITH RATES
APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR. A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER AROUND MHK THROUGH
01Z...BUT SHOULD BE OVER FOR TOP/FOE FOR THE NIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. THERE IS SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z AT MHK...AND AFTER 23Z AT TOP/FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS63 KTOP 182033
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DECAYING MCS AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THIS COMPLEX GRADUALLY CROSSED THE KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA LINE AFTER 18Z. FURTHER SOUTH OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
WITH A DECENT MOISTURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 25 KTS...A LIMITING
CAP AND DECENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
GRADIENT HAS AIDED IN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL NEAR A QUARTER SIZE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL GROW RAPIDLY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WITH
LACK OF DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. AS DAYTIME HEATING WINDS
DOWN...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL VORT MAX.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS CONVECTION SLOWER AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE I KEPT SLIGHT POPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS STILL REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE HANDLED QPF OUTPUT POORLY...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE
IS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DECENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ALLOWED HIGHS TO BE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

WED NIGHT-FRI...NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME
OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT DOES
SO. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN WILL END
POPS WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
CAP MOVE IN.  HIGHS CLIMB FROM UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A
RIDGES BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT SLIDES THROUGH NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE. THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...67/SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE EAST AFT 21Z. MENTIONED VCTS AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING SITES AFT 21Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA AFT 01Z AT KMHK AND 02Z AT KTOP/KFOE. TOO FAR OUT TO
MENTION HOWEVER THERE IS LOW END CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING WEST OF
KMHK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REVIEW AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 181151
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRACKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS OUT OF SC
NEBRASKA...BUT EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND SHOULD IT APPROACH
ANY OF THE AVIATION FORECAST LOCATIONS.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...LEIGHTON

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A
DIFFUSE LOOSELY PACKED GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS A WEAK MCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE GENERAL TREND OF THIS MCS IS A WEAKENING AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LITTLE SHEAR EXPECT THE TREND TO THIS MCS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. GIVEN DECENT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECT
TEMPS TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH SOME
PASSING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMMENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PERHAPS KICKING OF A ROUND OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITHOUT ANY REAL EASTWARD ADVECTION UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW AND FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY NIGHT
FEEL THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL OCCUR AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NE...SD...AND THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS IA AND PORTIONS OF MO.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 80S BUT WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY UNDER THE BROAD H5
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT...THEN HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...AN H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS


GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180433
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172325
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ISOLATED TSRA HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SO
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS AT KTOP/KFOE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...BOWEN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 172033
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WILL NEED SOME VCTS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
TOP/FOE AS RESIDUAL COMPLEX MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171623
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1123 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF BETTER INSTABILITY
RUNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND ADVANCING MCV
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED ELEVATED ACTIVITY.
WHILE CONVECTION MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...AREA AS A WHOLE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WILL NEED SOME VCTS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
TOP/FOE AS RESIDUAL COMPLEX MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KTOP 171249
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

KTOP AND KFOE WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND CU REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

GARGAN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...GARGAN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 170910
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO I-70 IN DICKINSON COUNTY..THEN
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF EMPORIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MCV FORMING NORTHEAST OF ICT. THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCE LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCV...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE MCV SHIFTS EAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MO...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT
THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL CONUS WILL AMPLIFY...THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NE AND
EASTERN CO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OR MCS`S. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z NAM TRACKS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM WESTERN NE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARW AND RUC
SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ATTM...I ONLY PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS IN CASE THE TRACK OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS HAS A
FARTHER EAST TRACK THAT COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE NUMERICAL MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS...SO IT MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
UNTIL IT IS KNOWN IF ONE OF THE HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUD THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD SEE
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

GARGAN


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO
VEER AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH AT 850MB BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A DRY FCST GOING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST RIDGE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AS THE AREA UNDERGOES A TRANSITION BACK
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.  THE EC IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE PRIOR TO
THIS TIMEFRAME...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS INTO THU.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK NORTHWARD SHIFT IN CONVECTION AS A STRONG
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND A HOTTER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. HAVE EDGED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN HIGHER TEMPS CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK LOW AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE FAR
NORTHERN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE

000
FXUS63 KTOP 170441
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE.  CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE.  BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS.  PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.

STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...HENNECKE

000
FXUS63 KTOP 162318
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
618 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE.  CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE.  BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS.  PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.

STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WELL THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT
THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...HENNECKE

000
FXUS63 KTOP 162028
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE.  CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE.  BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS.  PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.

STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

STILL NOT CERTAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. AREA REMAINS RIPE FOR CONVECTION IF A WAVE
OR A BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE VCTS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KTOP 161738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS NM AND CO AND WILL KEEP
EASTERN KS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL...THEN BACK NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NE. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
SHORTER-WAVE LENGTH TROUGHS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS DIG A MINOR H5 TROUGH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE AND NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KS AND NE
BORDER MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z SUN...WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO
MUCH OF THE AREAS NORTH OF I-70...THEN A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
FORECASTED TO FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS SECOND COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS MODEL AND 12Z GEM DO NOT SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...BUT DOES SHOW A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OR MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS...RAP...ARW AND NMM...ALL SHOW AN MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THIS MCS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS LOOKS TO WEAKEN ONCE
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z MON.

THERE ARE SO MANY MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN PLAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THAT I OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. I KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT IN CASE THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS.

SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20 KTS...THUS EXPECT
PULSE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THEN THERE MAY BE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ONGOING MCS COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE EXITING THE
AREA BEFORE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
A DRY FCST IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING MORNING POPS AS HIGH AS 50
PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST OF I 35. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 80S LOOKS ON
TRACK...WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S WITH THE AID OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE AREA
IS TEMPORARILY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AS WELL. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD...A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL
CREATE HIGH RISES THROUGH THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION
BACK TO WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MCS
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS NIGHTS TO THE WEST MOVING/DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE BUILDING RIDGE FOCUSES THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE
CWA. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

STILL NOT CERTAIN CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. AREA REMAINS RIPE FOR CONVECTION IF A WAVE
OR A BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE VCTS AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67

000
FXUS63 KTOP 161147
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS NM AND CO AND WILL KEEP
EASTERN KS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL...THEN BACK NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NE. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
SHORTER-WAVE LENGTH TROUGHS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS DIG A MINOR H5 TROUGH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE AND NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KS AND NE
BORDER MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z SUN...WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO
MUCH OF THE AREAS NORTH OF I-70...THEN A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
FORECASTED TO FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS SECOND COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS MODEL AND 12Z GEM DO NOT SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...BUT DOES SHOW A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OR MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS...RAP...ARW AND NMM...ALL SHOW AN MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THIS MCS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS LOOKS TO WEAKEN ONCE
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z MON.

THERE ARE SO MANY MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN PLAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THAT I OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. I KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT IN CASE THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS.

SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20 KTS...THUS EXPECT
PULSE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THEN THERE MAY BE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ONGOING MCS COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE EXITING THE
AREA BEFORE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
A DRY FCST IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING MORNING POPS AS HIGH AS 50
PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST OF I 35. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 80S LOOKS ON
TRACK...WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S WITH THE AID OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE AREA
IS TEMPORARILY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AS WELL. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD...A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL
CREATE HIGH RISES THROUGH THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION
BACK TO WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MCS
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS NIGHTS TO THE WEST MOVING/DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE BUILDING RIDGE FOCUSES THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE
CWA. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BKN STRATUS WITH CEILINGS OF 1,000 TO 1,500 FEET SHOULD MIX OUT BY
14Z TO 15Z. CU AND PERHAPS TCU WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BASES OF 4,000 TO 6,000 FEET.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

GARGAN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...GARGAN

000
FXUS63 KTOP 160904
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
404 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS NM AND CO AND WILL KEEP
EASTERN KS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL...THEN BACK NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN NE. SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWEST OK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
SHORTER-WAVE LENGTH TROUGHS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS DIG A MINOR H5 TROUGH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE AND NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KS AND NE
BORDER MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z SUN...WHICH IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO
MUCH OF THE AREAS NORTH OF I-70...THEN A SECOND COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
FORECASTED TO FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS SECOND COMPLEX MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TONIGHT.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS MODEL AND 12Z GEM DO NOT SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...BUT DOES SHOW A
COMPLEX OF STORMS OR MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...WHICH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS...RAP...ARW AND NMM...ALL SHOW AN MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THIS MCS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHERN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS LOOKS TO WEAKEN ONCE
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER 6Z MON.

THERE ARE SO MANY MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN PLAY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THAT I OPTED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. I KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT IN CASE THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS.

SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20 KTS...THUS EXPECT
PULSE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THEN THERE MAY BE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND HAZARD ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ONGOING MCS COULD STILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE EXITING THE
AREA BEFORE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED THE POPS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
A DRY FCST IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING MORNING POPS AS HIGH AS 50
PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST OF I 35. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 80S LOOKS ON
TRACK...WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S WITH THE AID OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE AREA
IS TEMPORARILY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AS WELL. AS THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD...A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL
CREATE HIGH RISES THROUGH THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION
BACK TO WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MCS
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS NIGHTS TO THE WEST MOVING/DEVELOPING
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
AND TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE BUILDING RIDGE FOCUSES THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE
CWA. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PROGRESS INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KTOP/KFOE...SO HAVE JUST ADDED A
MENTION OF VCTS FOR KMHK AT THIS TIME. WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE