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000
FXUS63 KTOP 281137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and a retreating surface high pressure has
given way to return flow and a warm frontal passage later this
morning. The warm front currently stretches from northwest to
southeast KS just south of the forecast area. This front will lift
northward across the area causing winds to shift to the southwest.
Winds just above the surface have already shifted to the southwest
advecting warmer temps and allowing a decent inversion to develop.
Within this shallow inversion a fairly strong low level jet has
begun to develop overhead, and will reach peak winds around 50 kts
between now and late morning. With clear skies and the advancing
warm front daytime heating should allow some of these winds to mix
down to the surface. The low level jet will maximize over the
southeast half of the forecast area and veer to the east through
the morning. Expect that the strongest wind gusts occur just after
sunrise once mixing begins. These gusts could exceed 35 mph for a
brief period late this morning and early afternoon for locations
along and east of the turnpike. As winds very gradually decrease
temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s by noon with highs in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmest locations will be north central KS
closer to the edge of the thermal ridge. Tonight mostly clear
skies with the exception of a few high clouds across the area
should allow another inversion to take place. The NAM is the most
aggressive saturating the lower levels just below the inversion
which would mean stratus. Not fully confident in this solution as
the other models keep these levels drier. Also, the surface
pressure gradient is not forecast to change much overnight
therefore do not expect winds to fully decouple. Overnight low
temps drop into the mid 30s in north central KS and mid 40s in
southeast KS. This is where the pressure gradient is slightly
stronger resulting in more mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

By 12Z Saturday, temperatures at 850mb are already around 15-18C,
with the thermal ridge remaining anchored in place over Eastern
Kansas for the afternoon. Have started with highs in the lower to
middle 60s, but if deeper mixing ensues, forecast could even be a
few degrees too cool. Winds also become less gusty for Saturday as
pressure gradient slowly weakens across the area. Next cold front
is on rapid approach from the north northwest overnight Saturday
night, but until it gets here overnight lows are likely to stay
well mixed into the 30s and 40s.

Sunday will seem like two completely different days between the
morning and the evening. The morning starts out well mixed into
the warmer mid level air, with mild overnight lows. North Central
Kansas will have the front through around sunrise, with it
spreading quickly southeast with time and likely through all of
the forecast area around the noon hour. Strong gusty northerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts will continue for much of
the morning and afternoon as the system passes. Precipitation does
still appear to remain focused south of our forecast area, so
although front is windy and cold, does still seem on track to be a
dry forecast. Temperatures in the far southeast counties may start
off in the 50s but would be expected to fall throughout the day.
Lows in the teens anticipated on Sunday night. As the surface high
moves into the upper midwest on Monday, highs are held to around
30.

Tues-Fri...Generally zonal flow across the central U.S. leaves
the later forecast days subject to periodic intrusions of colder
air as systems pass across the northern States. Tuesday warms
back up as thermal ridge moves over northern Kansas, and the next
front is poised to clip the area. Model differences continue for
clipper system on Thursday, and will keep the slight chance for
rain or snow in the east, but may be able to remove if weaker
solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and a retreating surface high pressure has
given way to return flow and a warm frontal passage later this
morning. The warm front currently stretches from northwest to
southeast KS just south of the forecast area. This front will lift
northward across the area causing winds to shift to the southwest.
Winds just above the surface have already shifted to the southwest
advecting warmer temps and allowing a decent inversion to develop.
Within this shallow inversion a fairly strong low level jet has
begun to develop overhead, and will reach peak winds around 50 kts
between now and late morning. With clear skies and the advancing
warm front daytime heating should allow some of these winds to mix
down to the surface. The low level jet will maximize over the
southeast half of the forecast area and veer to the east through
the morning. Expect that the strongest wind gusts occur just after
sunrise once mixing begins. These gusts could exceed 35 mph for a
brief period late this morning and early afternoon for locations
along and east of the turnpike. As winds very gradually decrease
temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s by noon with highs in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmest locations will be north central KS
closer to the edge of the thermal ridge. Tonight mostly clear
skies with the exception of a few high clouds across the area
should allow another inversion to take place. The NAM is the most
aggressive saturating the lower levels just below the inversion
which would mean stratus. Not fully confident in this solution as
the other models keep these levels drier. Also, the surface
pressure gradient is not forecast to change much overnight
therefore do not expect winds to fully decouple. Overnight low
temps drop into the mid 30s in north central KS and mid 40s in
southeast KS. This is where the pressure gradient is slightly
stronger resulting in more mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

By 12Z Saturday, temperatures at 850mb are already around 15-18C,
with the thermal ridge remaining anchored in place over Eastern
Kansas for the afternoon. Have started with highs in the lower to
middle 60s, but if deeper mixing ensues, forecast could even be a
few degrees too cool. Winds also become less gusty for Saturday as
pressure gradient slowly weakens across the area. Next cold front
is on rapid approach from the north northwest overnight Saturday
night, but until it gets here overnight lows are likely to stay
well mixed into the 30s and 40s.

Sunday will seem like two completely different days between the
morning and the evening. The morning starts out well mixed into
the warmer mid level air, with mild overnight lows. North Central
Kansas will have the front through around sunrise, with it
spreading quickly southeast with time and likely through all of
the forecast area around the noon hour. Strong gusty northerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts will continue for much of
the morning and afternoon as the system passes. Precipitation does
still appear to remain focused south of our forecast area, so
although front is windy and cold, does still seem on track to be a
dry forecast. Temperatures in the far southeast counties may start
off in the 50s but would be expected to fall throughout the day.
Lows in the teens anticipated on Sunday night. As the surface high
moves into the upper midwest on Monday, highs are held to around
30.

Tues-Fri...Generally zonal flow across the central U.S. leaves
the later forecast days subject to periodic intrusions of colder
air as systems pass across the northern States. Tuesday warms
back up as thermal ridge moves over northern Kansas, and the next
front is poised to clip the area. Model differences continue for
clipper system on Thursday, and will keep the slight chance for
rain or snow in the east, but may be able to remove if weaker
solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 280906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and a retreating surface high pressure has
given way to return flow and a warm frontal passage later this
morning. The warm front currently stretches from northwest to
southeast KS just south of the forecast area. This front will lift
northward across the area causing winds to shift to the southwest.
Winds just above the surface have already shifted to the southwest
advecting warmer temps and allowing a decent inversion to develop.
Within this shallow inversion a fairly strong low level jet has
begun to develop overhead, and will reach peak winds around 50 kts
between now and late morning. With clear skies and the advancing
warm front daytime heating should allow some of these winds to mix
down to the surface. The low level jet will maximize over the
southeast half of the forecast area and veer to the east through
the morning. Expect that the strongest wind gusts occur just after
sunrise once mixing begins. These gusts could exceed 35 mph for a
brief period late this morning and early afternoon for locations
along and east of the turnpike. As winds very gradually decrease
temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s by noon with highs in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmest locations will be north central KS
closer to the edge of the thermal ridge. Tonight mostly clear
skies with the exception of a few high clouds across the area
should allow another inversion to take place. The NAM is the most
aggressive saturating the lower levels just below the inversion
which would mean stratus. Not fully confident in this solution as
the other models keep these levels drier. Also, the surface
pressure gradient is not forecast to change much overnight
therefore do not expect winds to fully decouple. Overnight low
temps drop into the mid 30s in north central KS and mid 40s in
southeast KS. This is where the pressure gradient is slightly
stronger resulting in more mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

By 12Z Saturday, temperatures at 850mb are already around 15-18C,
with the thermal ridge remaining anchored in place over Eastern
Kansas for the afternoon. Have started with highs in the lower to
middle 60s, but if deeper mixing ensues, forecast could even be a
few degrees too cool. Winds also become less gusty for Saturday as
pressure gradient slowly weakens across the area. Next cold front
is on rapid approach from the north northwest overnight Saturday
night, but until it gets here overnight lows are likely to stay
well mixed into the 30s and 40s.

Sunday will seem like two completely different days between the
morning and the evening. The morning starts out well mixed into
the warmer mid level air, with mild overnight lows. North Central
Kansas will have the front through around sunrise, with it
spreading quickly southeast with time and likely through all of
the forecast area around the noon hour. Strong gusty northerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts will continue for much of
the morning and afternoon as the system passes. Precipitation does
still appear to remain focused south of our forecast area, so
although front is windy and cold, does still seem on track to be a
dry forecast. Temperatures in the far southeast counties may start
off in the 50s but would be expected to fall throughout the day.
Lows in the teens anticipated on Sunday night. As the surface high
moves into the upper midwest on Monday, highs are held to around
30.

Tues-Fri...Generally zonal flow across the central U.S. leaves
the later forecast days subject to periodic intrusions of colder
air as systems pass across the northern States. Tuesday warms
back up as thermal ridge moves over northern Kansas, and the next
front is poised to clip the area. Model differences continue for
clipper system on Thursday, and will keep the slight chance for
rain or snow in the east, but may be able to remove if weaker
solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface low pressure situated over the High Plains will gradually
shift a bit further eastward across Kansas, resulting in an increasing
pressure gradient through the day on Friday. As a result, could see
some wind gusts during the afternoon hours of 15-20mph before
diminishing during the evening hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Northwest flow aloft and a retreating surface high pressure has
given way to return flow and a warm frontal passage later this
morning. The warm front currently stretches from northwest to
southeast KS just south of the forecast area. This front will lift
northward across the area causing winds to shift to the southwest.
Winds just above the surface have already shifted to the southwest
advecting warmer temps and allowing a decent inversion to develop.
Within this shallow inversion a fairly strong low level jet has
begun to develop overhead, and will reach peak winds around 50 kts
between now and late morning. With clear skies and the advancing
warm front daytime heating should allow some of these winds to mix
down to the surface. The low level jet will maximize over the
southeast half of the forecast area and veer to the east through
the morning. Expect that the strongest wind gusts occur just after
sunrise once mixing begins. These gusts could exceed 35 mph for a
brief period late this morning and early afternoon for locations
along and east of the turnpike. As winds very gradually decrease
temperatures will quickly rise into the 50s by noon with highs in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Warmest locations will be north central KS
closer to the edge of the thermal ridge. Tonight mostly clear
skies with the exception of a few high clouds across the area
should allow another inversion to take place. The NAM is the most
aggressive saturating the lower levels just below the inversion
which would mean stratus. Not fully confident in this solution as
the other models keep these levels drier. Also, the surface
pressure gradient is not forecast to change much overnight
therefore do not expect winds to fully decouple. Overnight low
temps drop into the mid 30s in north central KS and mid 40s in
southeast KS. This is where the pressure gradient is slightly
stronger resulting in more mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

By 12Z Saturday, temperatures at 850mb are already around 15-18C,
with the thermal ridge remaining anchored in place over Eastern
Kansas for the afternoon. Have started with highs in the lower to
middle 60s, but if deeper mixing ensues, forecast could even be a
few degrees too cool. Winds also become less gusty for Saturday as
pressure gradient slowly weakens across the area. Next cold front
is on rapid approach from the north northwest overnight Saturday
night, but until it gets here overnight lows are likely to stay
well mixed into the 30s and 40s.

Sunday will seem like two completely different days between the
morning and the evening. The morning starts out well mixed into
the warmer mid level air, with mild overnight lows. North Central
Kansas will have the front through around sunrise, with it
spreading quickly southeast with time and likely through all of
the forecast area around the noon hour. Strong gusty northerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts will continue for much of
the morning and afternoon as the system passes. Precipitation does
still appear to remain focused south of our forecast area, so
although front is windy and cold, does still seem on track to be a
dry forecast. Temperatures in the far southeast counties may start
off in the 50s but would be expected to fall throughout the day.
Lows in the teens anticipated on Sunday night. As the surface high
moves into the upper midwest on Monday, highs are held to around
30.

Tues-Fri...Generally zonal flow across the central U.S. leaves
the later forecast days subject to periodic intrusions of colder
air as systems pass across the northern States. Tuesday warms
back up as thermal ridge moves over northern Kansas, and the next
front is poised to clip the area. Model differences continue for
clipper system on Thursday, and will keep the slight chance for
rain or snow in the east, but may be able to remove if weaker
solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface low pressure situated over the High Plains will gradually
shift a bit further eastward across Kansas, resulting in an increasing
pressure gradient through the day on Friday. As a result, could see
some wind gusts during the afternoon hours of 15-20mph before
diminishing during the evening hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 280528
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwesterly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface low pressure situated over the High Plains will gradually
shift a bit further eastward across Kansas, resulting in an increasing
pressure gradient through the day on Friday. As a result, could see
some wind gusts during the afternoon hours of 15-20mph before
diminishing during the evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280528
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwesterly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface low pressure situated over the High Plains will gradually
shift a bit further eastward across Kansas, resulting in an increasing
pressure gradient through the day on Friday. As a result, could see
some wind gusts during the afternoon hours of 15-20mph before
diminishing during the evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwesterly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the periods as
surface high pressure continues to shift eastward over the area. As
surface low pressure approaches the region from the west, expect
winds to veer from southeast to southwest by Friday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwesterly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwesterly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the periods as
surface high pressure continues to shift eastward over the area. As
surface low pressure approaches the region from the west, expect
winds to veer from southeast to southwest by Friday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwestly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwestly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Surface high pressure ridge will move off to the east with winds
becoming southeast around 8 kts by 21Z. Expect winds to become
south southwest by 12Z Friday and increase to around 11 kts by 15Z
Friday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Surface high pressure ridge moved off to the east into Missouri
today allowing the return of southerly winds to northeast Kansas.
Winds were stronger across western and central Kansas where the
pressure gradient was stronger.

Tonight expect some high clouds to move across the forecast area through
the early morning hours Friday as a system moves southeast across
the northern and central Plains. Lower boundary layer remains
mixed overnight and expect temperatures to be about 6 to 13
degrees warmer than Thursday morning lows, ranging from 26 to 31
degrees.

Max temperatures Friday likewise will rebound into the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds are expected with the tightest pressure
gradient across east central Kansas where winds will gust to
around 25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Most significant forecast challenges are frontal timing on Sunday,
and precip chances Wed/Thur.

Zonal flow aloft Friday night and Saturday result in a lee trough
over the High Plains and southerly/southwestly low-level flow
bringing in warmer temperatures. Temps at 850 mb forecast to be in
the 15-17C range and max temps are expected to be in the lower to
middle 60s across the area. Mild conditions should continue
overnight Saturday night.

A positive tilt upper trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest will result in a surging cold front entering
northern KS about 12Z Sun. Timing of this front is an issue in
forecasting temperatures as NAM and GFS move front through entire
area by noon on Sunday. GEM and ECMWF are a few hours slower,
which could lead to warmer highs in east central KS. Have gone
with a compromise on timing for frontal position and wind shift
given by the SREF mean, but bumped up winds behind front over what
SREF would have. Highs in east central KS south of I35 could reach
the lower 50s if that scenario plays out, but if faster NAM/GFS are
a better forecast, would only get into the 40s there.

Surface high ridge axis moves across eastern Kansas on Monday with
max temperatures not expected to make it out of the lower 30s most
places. As ridge translates off to the east, temperatures
moderate back into the 40s for Tue and Wed.

Both GFS and ECMWF continue with their run to run consistency by
mid-week. Unfortunately, that means there are considerable
differences between these models by Wednesday. These differences
seem to be due to the handling of system that cuts off off the
California coast early in the week. ECMWF has been slow to bring
this system into the western U.S. while GFS has brought it east as
a decent trough into the Rockies by Wed. Downstream for us, that
means 12Z ECMWF persists with northwest flow aloft and subsidence
over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the GFS
continues to have more west-southwestly flow aloft and develops a
lee trough with isentropic lift in eastern KS by Wed afternoon.
Given this variability, confidence is low, although slight chance
POPs are still being included.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Surface high pressure ridge will move off to the east with winds
becoming southeast around 8 kts by 21Z. Expect winds to become
south southwest by 12Z Friday and increase to around 11 kts by 15Z
Friday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271740
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Surface high pressure ridge will move off to the east with winds
becoming southeast around 8 kts by 21Z. Expect winds to become
south southwest by 12Z Friday and increase to around 11 kts by 15Z
Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271740
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Surface high pressure ridge will move off to the east with winds
becoming southeast around 8 kts by 21Z. Expect winds to become
south southwest by 12Z Friday and increase to around 11 kts by 15Z
Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 271122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Once the MVFR cigs clear out of TOP/FOE then VFR conditions will
prevail. Guidance is suggesting the stratus finally clears around
12-14Z, and satellite shows it has finally started progressing
southward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Once the MVFR cigs clear out of TOP/FOE then VFR conditions will
prevail. Guidance is suggesting the stratus finally clears around
12-14Z, and satellite shows it has finally started progressing
southward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270914
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 06z TAFs, MVFR cigs continue to hover over KTOP/KFOE but
this cloud deck should shift more to the east during the early
overnight hours, resulting in scattering cloud cover and VFR
conditions. Winds will be light overnight as surface high pressure
tracks eastward over the area. However, expect winds to veer from
northwest to southeast during the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270914
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.

Monday through Tuesday,  will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 06z TAFs, MVFR cigs continue to hover over KTOP/KFOE but
this cloud deck should shift more to the east during the early
overnight hours, resulting in scattering cloud cover and VFR
conditions. Winds will be light overnight as surface high pressure
tracks eastward over the area. However, expect winds to veer from
northwest to southeast during the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270523
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1123 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwesterly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 06z TAFs, MVFR cigs continue to hover over KTOP/KFOE but
this cloud deck should shift more to the east during the early
overnight hours, resulting in scattering cloud cover and VFR
conditions. Winds will be light overnight as surface high pressure
tracks eastward over the area. However, expect winds to veer from
northwest to southeast during the morning hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 270523
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1123 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwesterly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 06z TAFs, MVFR cigs continue to hover over KTOP/KFOE but
this cloud deck should shift more to the east during the early
overnight hours, resulting in scattering cloud cover and VFR
conditions. Winds will be light overnight as surface high pressure
tracks eastward over the area. However, expect winds to veer from
northwest to southeast during the morning hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwesterly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

For the 00z TAFs, cigs have begun to clear out near KMHK with MVFR
cigs expected to linger over KTOP/KFOE through mid evening before
improving to VFR conditions. Expect the breezy northwesterly winds
to subside this evening and become light overnight as surface high
pressure tracks eastward over the area. This shifting surface high
also will result in winds veering to the southeast Thursday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 262118
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwestly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Gusty northwest winds will persist along with developing MVFR
ceilings this afternoon across all TAF sites. Latest vis sat shows
increasing field of MVFR cumulus which is expected to overspread
the area through the remainder of the day. Heights should be in
the 2500 to 3500ft range so will be tricky to pin down a
prevailing cond but for now will be pessimistic for prevaling MVFR
cigs.

Inversion will persist trapping moisture and keeping low clouds
and MVFR conds through sunset with VFR conds expected after 03z as
clouds dissipate. Winds will also subside after sunset with light
north winds after 03z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262118
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwestly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Gusty northwest winds will persist along with developing MVFR
ceilings this afternoon across all TAF sites. Latest vis sat shows
increasing field of MVFR cumulus which is expected to overspread
the area through the remainder of the day. Heights should be in
the 2500 to 3500ft range so will be tricky to pin down a
prevailing cond but for now will be pessimistic for prevaling MVFR
cigs.

Inversion will persist trapping moisture and keeping low clouds
and MVFR conds through sunset with VFR conds expected after 03z as
clouds dissipate. Winds will also subside after sunset with light
north winds after 03z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt








000
FXUS63 KTOP 262118
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Low pressure over central Missouri will continue to drift ESE and
weaken tonight as a 1038mb high settles into the region. The net
effect will be for clouds to gradually decrease and winds to become
light and variable toward sunrise Thursday.  The cold superblend
guidance looks reasonable with light winds and generally clearing
skies. Only cloud expected after midnight would be some mid cloud
associated with 700-600mb WAA but that should be scattered enough to
allow temps to drop off toward guidance.

The cold start along with lack of mixing with the surface ridge atop
the area should lead to a cold start to the day. Surface winds will
turn to the southeast by afternoon. However that will do little
to help temps rise with highs expected to stay below avg in the
30s to lower 40s with coldest across the northeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The flow aloft for late this week transitions from northwestly on
Thursday night to zonal for Saturday, with an associated warming
trend. In fact, highs on Saturday should be well into the 60s most
areas as 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 15-17C
range. Another strong cold front then surges south late Saturday
night and Sunday with Sunday highs likely occurring in the
morning, and temperatures not rising out of the lower 30s on
Monday.

Surface high moves east on Tuesday with moderating temperatures
back into the 40s on that day.

Only precip chances in the longer range that appear to be worth
writing about are Tuesday night and Wednesday. Last two runs of
GFS have a split flow across the western U.S. with warm
advection/isentropic lift beginning late Tuesday night in eastern
KS and continuing on Wednesday with associated precip chances. At
the same time, last two runs of ECMWF have a ridge over the west
and northwest flow aloft during that period with surface high
pressure and dry conditions. Have tended toward GFS/GFS Ensemble
with low POPs for the middle of next week, however, confidence is
not high given the disparity in the medium range output.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Gusty northwest winds will persist along with developing MVFR
ceilings this afternoon across all TAF sites. Latest vis sat shows
increasing field of MVFR cumulus which is expected to overspread
the area through the remainder of the day. Heights should be in
the 2500 to 3500ft range so will be tricky to pin down a
prevailing cond but for now will be pessimistic for prevaling MVFR
cigs.

Inversion will persist trapping moisture and keeping low clouds
and MVFR conds through sunset with VFR conds expected after 03z as
clouds dissipate. Winds will also subside after sunset with light
north winds after 03z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261714 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Gusty northwest winds will persist along with developing MVFR
ceilings this afternoon across all TAF sites. Latest vis sat shows
increasing field of MVFR cumulus which is expected to overspread
the area through the remainder of the day. Heights should be in
the 2500 to 3500ft range so will be tricky to pin down a
prevailing cond but for now will be pessimistic for prevaling MVFR
cigs.

Inversion will persist trapping moisture and keeping low clouds
and MVFR conds through sunset with VFR conds expected after 03z as
clouds dissipate. Winds will also subside after sunset with light
north winds after 03z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261714 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Gusty northwest winds will persist along with developing MVFR
ceilings this afternoon across all TAF sites. Latest vis sat shows
increasing field of MVFR cumulus which is expected to overspread
the area through the remainder of the day. Heights should be in
the 2500 to 3500ft range so will be tricky to pin down a
prevailing cond but for now will be pessimistic for prevaling MVFR
cigs.

Inversion will persist trapping moisture and keeping low clouds
and MVFR conds through sunset with VFR conds expected after 03z as
clouds dissipate. Winds will also subside after sunset with light
north winds after 03z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Winds will turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with gusts
increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Latest guidance is suggesting
that the MVFR cigs possibly stay northeast of the taf sites.
Upstream observations reveal the only incoming MVFR cigs are in
north central NE, which have a trajatory that is north of the sites.
At the moment the taf sites may only be clipped by the stratus
deck for a brief period late morning and early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 261140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Winds will turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with gusts
increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Latest guidance is suggesting
that the MVFR cigs possibly stay northeast of the taf sites.
Upstream observations reveal the only incoming MVFR cigs are in
north central NE, which have a trajatory that is north of the sites.
At the moment the taf sites may only be clipped by the stratus
deck for a brief period late morning and early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 260920
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A cold front will move through TAF sites between 07Z and 09Z with
winds shifting out of west and light precipitation expected for 1
to 2 hours...probably rain but some chance for light snow/sleet.
Winds then turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with
gusts increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Also expect a period of
MVFR cigs from around 14Z through late morning or early afternoon
when cloud bases gradually mix out or lift above 3000 feet.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 260920
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Shortwave is still forecast to track over SW IA this morning. Radar
returns have overspread the area although due to low level dry air
precipitation is struggling to reach the ground. A few stations in
NE have reported sprinkles, and expect that this will be the most
any locations receive. Closer to the shortwave is the best chance
for light rain and possibly snow especially in far northeast KS the
next few hours with no accumulations expected. A trailing cold front
is currently pushing through northeast KS, and is forecast to
continue southeastward the rest of this morning. There seems to be
weak large scale lift coinciding with the frontogenesis extending
westward into central KS. Given temps in the mid 40s sprinkles and
light rain showers will be possible as this quickly moves eastward.
Winds ahead of the front remain gusty with low level mixing still
present in the warm sector. Winds will shift to the northwest behind
the front, but will not increase until late morning. Given this
mixing and cloud cover some locations may not cool much below the
upper 30s by sunrise. There is not much cold advection in the wake
of the front allowing temperatures to reach the upper 30s to low
40s. Today wind gusts up to 30 mph will be common across most of the
area especially during the afternoon. Cloud cover will be tricky
today with mid level clouds extending back into SD, and low level
clouds forecast to clip northeast KS for a brief period. Tonight
high pressure builds in from the north causing the winds to go calm
and low temperatures in the upper 10s to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Thursday (Thanksgiving Day), an amplified trough will be located
across the eastern conus with an upper level ridge across the
western conus. The mid to upper level flow across the northern and
central plains will be from the northwest. A surface ridge of high
pressure across eastern KS during the morning hours will shift into MO
by afternoon. Light surface winds in the morning will become
southeasterly through the afternoon and range from 5 to 10 MPH
across the eastern half of the CWA to 10 to 15 MPH across the
western counties. After a cold start in the upper teens and lower
20s Thursday morning, high temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper 30s across northeast KS, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s across east central KS, and highs int he mid 40s across
north central KS. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Thursday night through Saturday, the amplified upper level trough
across the eastern conus will shift east into the western
Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow across the plains will
become zonal. A lee surface trough across the high plains will
deepen and cause surface winds across the southern and central
plains to become southerly. Low-level WAA will help highs to reach
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees on Friday. Saturday will continue
to be warm with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Saturday night through Monday, An upper level trough will move east
across the northern plains. Strong low-level CAA across the northern
plains Saturday night will cause a cold front to push southward
across the CWA early Sunday morning. The front will move through the
CWA dry and the northwest edge of the deeper moisture will remain
south and southeast of the CWA, so there will be no rain chance
north of the front on Sunday afternoon across the southeast counties
of the CWA. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to
upper 30s to lower 40s south. The southeast counties may have their
high temperatures in the mid 40s during the mid and late morning
hours of Sunday but temperatures should fall back into the upper 30s
during the afternoon hours. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH will make it
even feel colder, despite insolation.

Monday will remain cold as the surface ridge of high pressure moves
east across the CWA. The winds will be light but Highs will struggle
to reach the lower 30s across the northern counties of the CWA with
mid to upper 30s elsewhere across the CWA.

Tuesday, another H5 trough will move east across the northern
plains. this will bring a front southward across the CWA during the
late afternoon hours. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the
upper 40s across the northern counties with lower to mid 50s across
the southern counties. If the front is a bit faster then afternoon
highs may have to be adjusted downward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A cold front will move through TAF sites between 07Z and 09Z with
winds shifting out of west and light precipitation expected for 1
to 2 hours...probably rain but some chance for light snow/sleet.
Winds then turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with
gusts increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Also expect a period of
MVFR cigs from around 14Z through late morning or early afternoon
when cloud bases gradually mix out or lift above 3000 feet.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 260532
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1132 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Next shortwave to affect the forecast area is dropping quickly
southward out of the Dakotas toward the Missouri river valley.
High clouds have started to move into eastern Kansas, much of which
has been almost 50 degrees this afternoon.

For tonight, the quick clipper brings a fast chance for some
showers across mostly the north and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Soundings suggest column needs to saturate first
before bringing showers to the ground, and as it does so, wet bulb
effect may be enough to mix snow with rain showers. Not
anticipating accumulation, and band should slide from north
central Kansas and northern Kansas in the late evening then across
far eastern Kansas around midnight through a few hours after. By
sunrise expect band to be east of the forecast area, with breezy
northwest winds in its wake. Highs should be a little colder
thanks to the cooler air with this system, with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Extended forecast remains dry while a series of disturbances will
fluctuate temps throughout.

The shortwave trough mentioned earlier quickly deepens as it races
east towards the eastern coast Wednesday evening. Ridging builds
over the western CONUS as surface high pressure spreads over the
plains region. For Thanksgiving day, winds starting off light shift
towards the south at 10 mph by the afternoon. Thermal ridge builds
as warmer air advects into western KS, while influence from the
passing high pressure will hold highs into the lower and mid 40s. By
Friday, upper pattern shifts as a a shortwave trough deepens over
the northern CONUS, and a surface trough develops over the western
high plains. Southwesterly flow edges thermal ridge into our area as
highs peak into the 50s, perhaps low 60s. Disregarding the outlier
and faster timing of the cold front seen with the GFS, highs stay in
the 60s for Saturday as the boundary approaches from the northwest.
Gulf moisture begins to spread northeastward, just south and east of
the area. A few model solutions are hinting at spotty QPF amounts
for far east central KS, unfortunately dry mid level air spreads
quickly behind the front and will maintain a dry forecast on Sunday.
More importantly are temperatures falling Sunday afternoon into the
middle 30s. This airmass does not stick around however as winds veer
and increase from the southwest once again Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the 50s. As this occurs, model guidance is similar
in a deeper longwave trough slowly building over the southwest
CONUS, bringing precip chances back into the forecast perhaps as
early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A cold front will move through TAF sites between 07Z and 09Z with
winds shifting out of west and light precipitation expected for 1
to 2 hours...probably rain but some chance for light snow/sleet.
Winds then turn out of the northwest shortly after sunrise with
gusts increasing to 25-30 kts at times. Also expect a period of
MVFR cigs from around 14Z through late morning or early afternoon
when cloud bases gradually mix out or lift above 3000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Next shortwave to affect the forecast area is dropping quickly
southward out of the Dakotas toward the Missouri river valley.
High clouds have started to move into eastern Kansas, much of which
has been almost 50 degrees this afternoon.

For tonight, the quick clipper brings a fast chance for some
showers across mostly the north and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Soundings suggest column needs to saturate first
before bringing showers to the ground, and as it does so, wet bulb
effect may be enough to mix snow with rain showers. Not
anticipating accumulation, and band should slide from north
central Kansas and northern Kansas in the late evening then across
far eastern Kansas around midnight through a few hours after. By
sunrise expect band to be east of the forecast area, with breezy
northwest winds in its wake. Highs should be a little colder
thanks to the cooler air with this system, with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Extended forecast remains dry while a series of disturbances will
fluctuate temps throughout.

The shortwave trough mentioned earlier quickly deepens as it races
east towards the eastern coast Wednesday evening. Ridging builds
over the western CONUS as surface high pressure spreads over the
plains region. For Thanksgiving day, winds starting off light shift
towards the south at 10 mph by the afternoon. Thermal ridge builds
as warmer air advects into western KS, while influence from the
passing high pressure will hold highs into the lower and mid 40s. By
Friday, upper pattern shifts as a a shortwave trough deepens over
the northern CONUS, and a surface trough develops over the western
high plains. Southwesterly flow edges thermal ridge into our area as
highs peak into the 50s, perhaps low 60s. Disregarding the outlier
and faster timing of the cold front seen with the GFS, highs stay in
the 60s for Saturday as the boundary approaches from the northwest.
Gulf moisture begins to spread northeastward, just south and east of
the area. A few model solutions are hinting at spotty QPF amounts
for far east central KS, unfortunately dry mid level air spreads
quickly behind the front and will maintain a dry forecast on Sunday.
More importantly are temperatures falling Sunday afternoon into the
middle 30s. This airmass does not stick around however as winds veer
and increase from the southwest once again Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the 50s. As this occurs, model guidance is similar
in a deeper longwave trough slowly building over the southwest
CONUS, bringing precip chances back into the forecast perhaps as
early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A cold front will impact MHK between 08 and 09Z, and TOP/FOE close
to 10Z with a wind shift. There is a chance of light precipitation
near the time of the frontal passage, likely in the form of light
rain although temperatures will be near freezing. If temperatures
are colder than forecast, could have a brief period of light
rain/snow/sleet/fzra with emphasis on LIGHT. Northwest winds
increase with gusts 25 to 30 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Next shortwave to affect the forecast area is dropping quickly
southward out of the Dakotas toward the Missouri river valley.
High clouds have started to move into eastern Kansas, much of which
has been almost 50 degrees this afternoon.

For tonight, the quick clipper brings a fast chance for some
showers across mostly the north and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Soundings suggest column needs to saturate first
before bringing showers to the ground, and as it does so, wet bulb
effect may be enough to mix snow with rain showers. Not
anticipating accumulation, and band should slide from north
central Kansas and northern Kansas in the late evening then across
far eastern Kansas around midnight through a few hours after. By
sunrise expect band to be east of the forecast area, with breezy
northwest winds in its wake. Highs should be a little colder
thanks to the cooler air with this system, with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Extended forecast remains dry while a series of disturbances will
fluctuate temps throughout.

The shortwave trough mentioned earlier quickly deepens as it races
east towards the eastern coast Wednesday evening. Ridging builds
over the western CONUS as surface high pressure spreads over the
plains region. For Thanksgiving day, winds starting off light shift
towards the south at 10 mph by the afternoon. Thermal ridge builds
as warmer air advects into western KS, while influence from the
passing high pressure will hold highs into the lower and mid 40s. By
Friday, upper pattern shifts as a a shortwave trough deepens over
the northern CONUS, and a surface trough develops over the western
high plains. Southwesterly flow edges thermal ridge into our area as
highs peak into the 50s, perhaps low 60s. Disregarding the outlier
and faster timing of the cold front seen with the GFS, highs stay in
the 60s for Saturday as the boundary approaches from the northwest.
Gulf moisture begins to spread northeastward, just south and east of
the area. A few model solutions are hinting at spotty QPF amounts
for far east central KS, unfortunately dry mid level air spreads
quickly behind the front and will maintain a dry forecast on Sunday.
More importantly are temperatures falling Sunday afternoon into the
middle 30s. This airmass does not stick around however as winds veer
and increase from the southwest once again Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the 50s. As this occurs, model guidance is similar
in a deeper longwave trough slowly building over the southwest
CONUS, bringing precip chances back into the forecast perhaps as
early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A cold front will impact MHK between 08 and 09Z, and TOP/FOE close
to 10Z with a wind shift. There is a chance of light precipitation
near the time of the frontal passage, likely in the form of light
rain although temperatures will be near freezing. If temperatures
are colder than forecast, could have a brief period of light
rain/snow/sleet/fzra with emphasis on LIGHT. Northwest winds
increase with gusts 25 to 30 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Next shortwave to affect the forecast area is dropping quickly
southward out of the Dakotas toward the Missouri river valley.
High clouds have started to move into eastern Kansas, much of which
has been almost 50 degrees this afternoon.

For tonight, the quick clipper brings a fast chance for some
showers across mostly the north and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Soundings suggest column needs to saturate first
before bringing showers to the ground, and as it does so, wet bulb
effect may be enough to mix snow with rain showers. Not
anticipating accumulation, and band should slide from north
central Kansas and northern Kansas in the late evening then across
far eastern Kansas around midnight through a few hours after. By
sunrise expect band to be east of the forecast area, with breezy
northwest winds in its wake. Highs should be a little colder
thanks to the cooler air with this system, with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Extended forecast remains dry while a series of disturbances will
fluctuate temps throughout.

The shortwave trough mentioned earlier quickly deepens as it races
east towards the eastern coast Wednesday evening. Ridging builds
over the western CONUS as surface high pressure spreads over the
plains region. For Thanksgiving day, winds starting off light shift
towards the south at 10 mph by the afternoon. Thermal ridge builds
as warmer air advects into western KS, while influence from the
passing high pressure will hold highs into the lower and mid 40s. By
Friday, upper pattern shifts as a a shortwave trough deepens over
the northern CONUS, and a surface trough develops over the western
high plains. Southwesterly flow edges thermal ridge into our area as
highs peak into the 50s, perhaps low 60s. Disregarding the outlier
and faster timing of the cold front seen with the GFS, highs stay in
the 60s for Saturday as the boundary approaches from the northwest.
Gulf moisture begins to spread northeastward, just south and east of
the area. A few model solutions are hinting at spotty QPF amounts
for far east central KS, unfortunately dry mid level air spreads
quickly behind the front and will maintain a dry forecast on Sunday.
More importantly are temperatures falling Sunday afternoon into the
middle 30s. This airmass does not stick around however as winds veer
and increase from the southwest once again Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the 50s. As this occurs, model guidance is similar
in a deeper longwave trough slowly building over the southwest
CONUS, bringing precip chances back into the forecast perhaps as
early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak system
passes by in the overnight hours but think precip will miss
terminals, but will need to watch for MVFR cigs near the area.
Winds become breezy northwest on Wednesday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252047
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
247 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Next shortwave to affect the forecast area is dropping quickly
southward out of the Dakotas toward the Missouri river valley.
High clouds have started to move into eastern Kansas, much of which
has been almost 50 degrees this afternoon.

For tonight, the quick clipper brings a fast chance for some
showers across mostly the north and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Soundings suggest column needs to saturate first
before bringing showers to the ground, and as it does so, wet bulb
effect may be enough to mix snow with rain showers. Not
anticipating accumulation, and band should slide from north
central Kansas and northern Kansas in the late evening then across
far eastern Kansas around midnight through a few hours after. By
sunrise expect band to be east of the forecast area, with breezy
northwest winds in its wake. Highs should be a little colder
thanks to the cooler air with this system, with highs in the upper
30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Extended forecast remains dry while a series of disturbances will
fluctuate temps throughout.

The shortwave trough mentioned earlier quickly deepens as it races
east towards the eastern coast Wednesday evening. Ridging builds
over the western CONUS as surface high pressure spreads over the
plains region. For Thanksgiving day, winds starting off light shift
towards the south at 10 mph by the afternoon. Thermal ridge builds
as warmer air advects into western KS, while influence from the
passing high pressure will hold highs into the lower and mid 40s. By
Friday, upper pattern shifts as a a shortwave trough deepens over
the northern CONUS, and a surface trough develops over the western
high plains. Southwesterly flow edges thermal ridge into our area as
highs peak into the 50s, perhaps low 60s. Disregarding the outlier
and faster timing of the cold front seen with the GFS, highs stay in
the 60s for Saturday as the boundary approaches from the northwest.
Gulf moisture begins to spread northeastward, just south and east of
the area. A few model solutions are hinting at spotty QPF amounts
for far east central KS, unfortunately dry mid level air spreads
quickly behind the front and will maintain a dry forecast on Sunday.
More importantly are temperatures falling Sunday afternoon into the
middle 30s. This airmass does not stick around however as winds veer
and increase from the southwest once again Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the 50s. As this occurs, model guidance is similar
in a deeper longwave trough slowly building over the southwest
CONUS, bringing precip chances back into the forecast perhaps as
early as Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak system
passes by in the overnight hours but think precip will miss
terminals, but will need to watch for MVFR cigs near the area.
Winds become breezy northwest on Wednesday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mostly clear skies and light winds continue through the morning
hours with low temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and upper
10s. Today a shortwave within the northwest flow will drop out of
Canada and track over the region. Low level southwest flow ahead
of the wave should allow temperatures to reach the upper 40s to
low 50s, which the direction some of the short range guidance is
trending. The latest models are also suggesting that the main
shortwave energy will pass over far SW IA. Weak isentropic lift in
the mid levels develops ahead of the wave over north central KS
after 03Z. This area of lift will advance eastward over northeast
KS between 06-09Z. The lift will be slightly stronger over far
northeast in closer proximity to the shortwave. Soundings show a
rather deep dry layer that extends from the surface up to around
800 mb. The lift appears too weak and brief to allow most areas to
see any measurable precip. If any precip is able to survive this
dry layer the wet bulb cooling would still only support rain. The
only exception will be far northeast KS where a rain snow mix
could occur with little to no accumulations expected. Although
once the temperatures in the column become more supportive of snow
the saturation and lift becomes better focused east into MO after
12Z. A trailing cold front pushes through the region around 06Z
shifting the winds back to the northwest with a gradual increase
before sunrise, and low temperatures tonight are generally in the
low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Wednesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), an upper level trough
over IA and extending south-southwest across eastern KS early
Wednesday morning will dig southeast across MO into the western OH
river valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Low-level CAA across the
plains and Midwest will only allow Highs on Wednesday to reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s, despite decreasing cloud cover. Northwest
surface winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts will make it even
feel colder. The winds should diminish by late afternoon.

Travel weather across KS and points south and west will be good.
Traveling east across IA and northern MO into IL there may be some
light snow accumulations. A bigger snow storm will be moving up the
east coast with heavy snow possible from the interior portions of
the mid Atlantic states, northeast across New England. Expect travel
delays across the Mid Atlantic and northeast US.

A surface ridge of high pressure will move east across the CWA
Wednesday Night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow
overnight lows Wednesday night to drop into the upper teens to lower
20s.

On Thanksgiving, the surface ridge of high pressure will shift east
towards the MS river valley. Surface winds will become southeasterly
across the CWA through the day. The winds may increase to 10 to 20
MPH across the western counties of the CWA by late afternoon. After
a cold start highs will warm into the lower to mid 40s across the
western and southern counties. Highs across the extreme northeast
counties will only reach the upper 30s.

Friday through Saturday, the northwesterly flow aloft will become
zonal as a lee surface trough develops across the highs plains.
Southerly winds will help to warm Highs into the mid to upper 50s on
Friday with upper 50s and lower 60s on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday, An amplified upper level trough over western
Canada will dig southeast into the northern plains and upper
Midwest. The strong low-level CAA across the northern plains will
cause a stronger cold front to push southeast across the CWA
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front will push through
dry across much of the CWA. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the
northwest edge of deeper moisture lifting northeast over the
shallow cold airmass across the extreme southeast counties of the CWA.
At this time most of the precip will be in the form of light rain
late Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours before 850mb
winds turn to the northwest. Therefore, I placed in a 20 percent of
showers southeast of I-35 on Saturday afternoon. Highs Sunday
will only reach the mid to upper 30s north of I-70 with lower to
mid 40s south of I-70. Highs on Monday will continue to be cool as
the surface ridge axis shifts east across KS. Highs on Monday
will only reach the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak system
passes by in the overnight hours but think precip will miss
terminals, but will need to watch for MVFR cigs near the area.
Winds become breezy northwest on Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Mostly clear skies and light winds continue through the morning
hours with low temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and upper
10s. Today a shortwave within the northwest flow will drop out of
Canada and track over the region. Low level southwest flow ahead
of the wave should allow temperatures to reach the upper 40s to
low 50s, which the direction some of the short range guidance is
trending. The latest models are also suggesting that the main
shortwave energy will pass over far SW IA. Weak isentropic lift in
the mid levels develops ahead of the wave over north central KS
after 03Z. This area of lift will advance eastward over northeast
KS between 06-09Z. The lift will be slightly stronger over far
northeast in closer proximity to the shortwave. Soundings show a
rather deep dry layer that extends from the surface up to around
800 mb. The lift appears too weak and brief to allow most areas to
see any measurable precip. If any precip is able to survive this
dry layer the wet bulb cooling would still only support rain. The
only exception will be far northeast KS where a rain snow mix
could occur with little to no accumulations expected. Although
once the temperatures in the column become more supportive of snow
the saturation and lift becomes better focused east into MO after
12Z. A trailing cold front pushes through the region around 06Z
shifting the winds back to the northwest with a gradual increase
before sunrise, and low temperatures tonight are generally in the
low to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Wednesday through Thursday (Thanksgiving), an upper level trough
over IA and extending south-southwest across eastern KS early
Wednesday morning will dig southeast across MO into the western OH
river valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Low-level CAA across the
plains and Midwest will only allow Highs on Wednesday to reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s, despite decreasing cloud cover. Northwest
surface winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts will make it even
feel colder. The winds should diminish by late afternoon.

Travel weather across KS and points south and west will be good.
Traveling east across IA and northern MO into IL there may be some
light snow accumulations. A bigger snow storm will be moving up the
east coast with heavy snow possible from the interior portions of
the mid Atlantic states, northeast across New England. Expect travel
delays across the Mid Atlantic and northeast US.

A surface ridge of high pressure will move east across the CWA
Wednesday Night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow
overnight lows Wednesday night to drop into the upper teens to lower
20s.

On Thanksgiving, the surface ridge of high pressure will shift east
towards the MS river valley. Surface winds will become southeasterly
across the CWA through the day. The winds may increase to 10 to 20
MPH across the western counties of the CWA by late afternoon. After
a cold start highs will warm into the lower to mid 40s across the
western and southern counties. Highs across the extreme northeast
counties will only reach the upper 30s.

Friday through Saturday, the northwesterly flow aloft will become
zonal as a lee surface trough develops across the highs plains.
Southerly winds will help to warm Highs into the mid to upper 50s on
Friday with upper 50s and lower 60s on Saturday.

Sunday through Monday, An amplified upper level trough over western
Canada will dig southeast into the northern plains and upper
Midwest. The strong low-level CAA across the northern plains will
cause a stronger cold front to push southeast across the CWA
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front will push through
dry across much of the CWA. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the
northwest edge of deeper moisture lifting northeast over the
shallow cold airmass across the extreme southeast counties of the CWA.
At this time most of the precip will be in the form of light rain
late Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours before 850mb
winds turn to the northwest. Therefore, I placed in a 20 percent of
showers southeast of I-35 on Saturday afternoon. Highs Sunday
will only reach the mid to upper 30s north of I-70 with lower to
mid 40s south of I-70. Highs on Monday will continue to be cool as
the surface ridge axis shifts east across KS. Highs on Monday
will only reach the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. Weak system
passes by in the overnight hours but think precip will miss
terminals, but will need to watch for MVFR cigs near the area.
Winds become breezy northwest on Wednesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67







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