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000
FXUS63 KTOP 251727
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR cigs in place should persist through the afternoon at all
TAF sites with cigs mainly between 2k and 3k feet. Some potential
for brief periods of scattering, but a good chance for persistent
ceilings. Expect a decrease closer to 1200 feet around 00Z, and
further decrease into IFR ceiling heights by late evening with
some variation possible from the forecast 04Z-05Z time frame. IFR
cigs, and potential minor vis restrictions, will persist through
the end of the TAF, with a chance for 2-4 hours of LIFR cigs
around 12Z (although not included in the TAF at this time).

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251727
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR cigs in place should persist through the afternoon at all
TAF sites with cigs mainly between 2k and 3k feet. Some potential
for brief periods of scattering, but a good chance for persistent
ceilings. Expect a decrease closer to 1200 feet around 00Z, and
further decrease into IFR ceiling heights by late evening with
some variation possible from the forecast 04Z-05Z time frame. IFR
cigs, and potential minor vis restrictions, will persist through
the end of the TAF, with a chance for 2-4 hours of LIFR cigs
around 12Z (although not included in the TAF at this time).

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251727
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR cigs in place should persist through the afternoon at all
TAF sites with cigs mainly between 2k and 3k feet. Some potential
for brief periods of scattering, but a good chance for persistent
ceilings. Expect a decrease closer to 1200 feet around 00Z, and
further decrease into IFR ceiling heights by late evening with
some variation possible from the forecast 04Z-05Z time frame. IFR
cigs, and potential minor vis restrictions, will persist through
the end of the TAF, with a chance for 2-4 hours of LIFR cigs
around 12Z (although not included in the TAF at this time).

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251154
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A combination of vfr to mvfr cigs are expected through 16Z then
going back to mvfr cigs for much of the period. Scattered SHRA is
expected through 17Z, but is not expected to reduce visibility out
of VFR category. Forecast soundings show a chance of IFR after 07Z
and have introduced IFR cigs in this time frame.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251154
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A combination of vfr to mvfr cigs are expected through 16Z then
going back to mvfr cigs for much of the period. Scattered SHRA is
expected through 17Z, but is not expected to reduce visibility out
of VFR category. Forecast soundings show a chance of IFR after 07Z
and have introduced IFR cigs in this time frame.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251154
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A combination of vfr to mvfr cigs are expected through 16Z then
going back to mvfr cigs for much of the period. Scattered SHRA is
expected through 17Z, but is not expected to reduce visibility out
of VFR category. Forecast soundings show a chance of IFR after 07Z
and have introduced IFR cigs in this time frame.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250855
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 250855
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a line of thunderstorms will track across
KTOP/KFOE during the early overnight hours, with periods of showers
and isolated thunderstorms behind this line that will persist into
the morning hours. Observations show deteriorating cigs overnight
with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs expected with the lingering showers
through the morning. Some gusty winds can be expected with the
initial line of storms with gusts upwards of 25-30mph. Latest model
guidance suggests that once the precipitation exits to the east, the
region should still remain under an MVFR stratus deck through the
day with even lower MVFR cigs by Saturday evening. Winds will shift
to the west and northwest overnight and further toward the northeast
by Saturday night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1010 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 947 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Large complex of thunderstorms is steadily progressing east this
evening, and will continue to do so through the early morning
hours. Currently it is moving into an airmass characterized by
500-800 J/kg of most unstable CAPE with a most unstable lifted
parcel level near 1000 m. Surface parcels are also unstable but
capped. Current radar indicates that the main cold pool is about 15
miles ahead of the convective updrafts, also indicative of the
elevated nature. Where the updrafts do develop, they are vertical
in nature although not particularly tall, likely owing to the
steep mid level lapse rates, and where stronger updrafts have
developed there have been temporary indications of low level
rotation. These have largely been limited to portions of the
bowing line angled from SE to NW which are also the areas of the
line that are most stable to surface parcels. With that in mind,
the potential for these mesovortices to translate any enhanced
enhanced wind or rotation to the surface is very low.

Will need to continue to monitor the evolution of this system,
with some interest given to the southern flank as there is
stronger deep layer shear in those areas near/southeast of Council
Grove. However, the overall airmass is expected to become
increasingly stable overnight and east central KS will be
displaced from the strongest deep layer forcing with the storm
system. So, while the convection was quite intense in central KS,
it has weakened a bit with eastward progression, and will continue
to do so through the night. There is still some potential for hail
or even a localized damaging wind gust, but for much of the night
will have a focus on beneficial rainfall and frequent lightning...
with a few areas flirting with locally excessive rainfall from
Ottawa through Washington counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1010 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 947 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Large complex of thunderstorms is steadily progressing east this
evening, and will continue to do so through the early morning
hours. Currently it is moving into an airmass characterized by
500-800 J/kg of most unstable CAPE with a most unstable lifted
parcel level near 1000 m. Surface parcels are also unstable but
capped. Current radar indicates that the main cold pool is about 15
miles ahead of the convective updrafts, also indicative of the
elevated nature. Where the updrafts do develop, they are vertical
in nature although not particularly tall, likely owing to the
steep mid level lapse rates, and where stronger updrafts have
developed there have been temporary indications of low level
rotation. These have largely been limited to portions of the
bowing line angled from SE to NW which are also the areas of the
line that are most stable to surface parcels. With that in mind,
the potential for these mesovortices to translate any enhanced
enhanced wind or rotation to the surface is very low.

Will need to continue to monitor the evolution of this system,
with some interest given to the southern flank as there is
stronger deep layer shear in those areas near/southeast of Council
Grove. However, the overall airmass is expected to become
increasingly stable overnight and east central KS will be
displaced from the strongest deep layer forcing with the storm
system. So, while the convection was quite intense in central KS,
it has weakened a bit with eastward progression, and will continue
to do so through the night. There is still some potential for hail
or even a localized damaging wind gust, but for much of the night
will have a focus on beneficial rainfall and frequent lightning...
with a few areas flirting with locally excessive rainfall from
Ottawa through Washington counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
211 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
211 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR cigs expected through 20Z-21Z with an improvement to VFR.
Some IFR cigs are possible with deeper moisture return. Also
maintained VCSH for the start of the period with elevated showers
and isolated tsra through 16Z. Some IFR cigs may develop at the
terminals and added a ifr cig at mhk where higher confidence is.
TSRA will be possible in the 00Z-07Z time period before
diminishing. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR cigs expected through 20Z-21Z with an improvement to VFR.
Some IFR cigs are possible with deeper moisture return. Also
maintained VCSH for the start of the period with elevated showers
and isolated tsra through 16Z. Some IFR cigs may develop at the
terminals and added a ifr cig at mhk where higher confidence is.
TSRA will be possible in the 00Z-07Z time period before
diminishing. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters









000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters









000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the bulk of this
forecast. Low-level moisture slowly builds, especially after 0Z,
with MVFR ceilings expected to develop in the 05Z-09Z period. Have
delayed greater thunderstorm chances a bit given latest trends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222307
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Think VFR conditions will persist through Thursday as moisture
return is progged by models to be above 4 KFT with low levels
remaining relatively dry. Moisture return also appears to be
shallow with no real vertical motion, so kept the forecast dry.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222307
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Think VFR conditions will persist through Thursday as moisture
return is progged by models to be above 4 KFT with low levels
remaining relatively dry. Moisture return also appears to be
shallow with no real vertical motion, so kept the forecast dry.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50kt
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21z to 00z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125kt 300mb jet streak
overspreading the area by 00z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70kts to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00z to
06z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR conditions will still be the result of high pressure influence
over the region through tomorrow noon. Winds shift to the
East/southeast by the end of the period. Some showers may develop
West of KMHK but should remain there this period. The biggest impact
will be scattered to possibly broken mid to high clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50kt
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21z to 00z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125kt 300mb jet streak
overspreading the area by 00z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70kts to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00z to
06z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR conditions will still be the result of high pressure influence
over the region through tomorrow noon. Winds shift to the
East/southeast by the end of the period. Some showers may develop
West of KMHK but should remain there this period. The biggest impact
will be scattered to possibly broken mid to high clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50kt
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21z to 00z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125kt 300mb jet streak
overspreading the area by 00z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70kts to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00z to
06z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR conditions will still be the result of high pressure influence
over the region through tomorrow noon. Winds shift to the
East/southeast by the end of the period. Some showers may develop
West of KMHK but should remain there this period. The biggest impact
will be scattered to possibly broken mid to high clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50kt
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21z to 00z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125kt 300mb jet streak
overspreading the area by 00z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70kts to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00z to
06z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR conditions will still be the result of high pressure influence
over the region through tomorrow noon. Winds shift to the
East/southeast by the end of the period. Some showers may develop
West of KMHK but should remain there this period. The biggest impact
will be scattered to possibly broken mid to high clouds.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake








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