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000
FXUS63 KTOP 252330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Have moderate confidence in substantial aviation impacts through
morning. Expect fog and/or low ceilings to develop after 05Z, and
likely closer to 07Z. There is potential for vis to fall below
1/2SM with timing of the best chance for this between 09Z and 14Z.
At the same time, have some potential for the lowest cig/vis
conditions to develop near or just north of TAF sites and improve
as a front approaches TAF sites by morning. Most likely forecast
is for IFR or worse conditions for several hours through 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252040
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog at TAF sites is patchy, but dense. Fog banks drifting over the
airfields at times will make for prevailing visby less than 3
miles with patchy dense fog at TAF sites. Will carry a tempo for
TOP/MHK given proximity of airfield to water. Winds north through
southeast become more southerly overnight and will not add a group
for that at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ012-024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 251112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog at TAF sites is patchy, but dense. Fog banks drifting over the
airfields at times will make for prevailing visby less than 3
miles with patchy dense fog at TAF sites. Will carry a tempo for
TOP/MHK given proximity of airfield to water. Winds north through
southeast become more southerly overnight and will not add a group
for that at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ012-024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250811
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main concern for the forecast period is fog potential overnight
through Sat. morning. Shallow MVFR fog occurring at KTOP will
lower to IFR and LIFR aft 09Z as patchy dense fog settles into the
low lying area. KFOE is more mixed with southwest winds around 6
kts through 09Z. Should expect these winds to weaken enough near
the surface trough axis to develop predominant MVFR visibilities.
Occasional IFR cigs are possible through sunrise where a TEMPO was
inserted. KMHK is more uncertain in fog development as latest
guidance is hinting at lower dewpoint temperatures just north of
the terminal. May still see patchy MVFR cigs however confidence is
low at this point. Expect fog to dissipate by 15Z with light winds
and VFR conditions through remainder of period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main concern for the forecast period is fog potential overnight
through Sat. morning. Shallow MVFR fog occurring at KTOP will
lower to IFR and LIFR aft 09Z as patchy dense fog settles into the
low lying area. KFOE is more mixed with southwest winds around 6
kts through 09Z. Should expect these winds to weaken enough near
the surface trough axis to develop predominant MVFR visibilities.
Occasional IFR cigs are possible through sunrise where a TEMPO was
inserted. KMHK is more uncertain in fog development as latest
guidance is hinting at lower dewpoint temperatures just north of
the terminal. May still see patchy MVFR cigs however confidence is
low at this point. Expect fog to dissipate by 15Z with light winds
and VFR conditions through remainder of period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 242328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR to begin forecast period as weak boundary approaches from the
north. Drier air settles in behind the boundary where short term
guidance is indicating should stay north of terminals overnight.
This scenario would provide adequate surface moisture to develop
areas of fog between 09Z and 12Z. MVFR visibilities begin as early
as 06Z and fall between IFR and LIFR from 09Z onward. Visibility
clears to VFR around 15Z as light northeast winds veer towards the
east in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High level cirrus clouds will steadily thin to only a few by 00z
as winds decrease to under 6 kts. Expect mvfr to ifr fog all terminals
mainly in the 10-14z time frame as winds become light and variable
ahead of an advancing front that may enhance the fog potential until
north winds/mixing begin to increase by 14z when VFR conditions are
once again expected on thru the end of the fcst.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241752 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High level cirrus clouds will steadily thin to only a few by 00z
as winds decrease to under 6 kts. Expect mvfr to ifr fog all terminals
mainly in the 10-14z time frame as winds become light and variable
ahead of an advancing front that may enhance the fog potential until
north winds/mixing begin to increase by 14z when VFR conditions are
once again expected on thru the end of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 241117
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Enough mixing in the low levels to keep fog mainly at bay, with
lower stratus moving off to the east of the TAF sites at this
hour. Later this morning visibility will improve to VFR and
continue through the day and evening. Early Saturday morning may
see a return of fog, but will give another issuance before making
mention that late in the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Models continue to show enough of a pressure gradient to keep some
wind at the surface through the morning. Think this along with high
cirrus overhead may be enough to keep the fog light and VSBY MVFR.
The exception is MHK where winds have gone calm. There could be a
brief period of IFR VSBY but think this would be temporary. With
mixing and insolation, the boundary layer should mix out by late
morning leading to VFR conditions through the rest of the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 240435
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The 1930Z water vapor imagery showing exiting shortwave trough
across eastern KS with backing flow aloft ushering in high level
moisture from the high plains. The high level moisture matches up
well with the sct-bkn cirrus shield that will overspread the county
warning areas this evening and overnight. The low level cloud deck
has slowed across the southeast 1/3 of the CWA and is expected to
diminish and slowly advect northward later this evening and
overnight...although not expecting the cloud cover to be
overcast...but should be enough along with increased mixing in the
boundary layer to offset low level dense fog...although some patchy
is expected later tonight with moisture advection increasing across
the north and east. Kept lows in the middle 50s.

On Friday...warm advection will continue across most residual clouds
lift off to the north and east of the CWA. Temps at 850 warm to near
20 deg C over the western counties so highs there in the middle 80s
look on track with the lower 80s east. Winds should remain south at
speeds generally in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A weak frontal boundary will slide south into northeast Kansas
Friday night and Saturday with light easterly winds. Mixing is
rather shallow on Saturday which will offset warming at 850 MB into
the 18 to 21 degrees Celsius. Still should see highs in the mid to
upper 70s with areas near central Kansas warming to the lower 80s.

An upper level ridge will move across the Southern and Central
Plains Sunday and Sunday night in advance of a longwave trough
moving across the western states. 850 MB temperatures warm again
into the 18C to 21C range on Sunday and soundings show mixing from
around 850 MB. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 80s.

Monday through Tuesday night the upper level trough will move across
the Rockies and across the Central Plains. A cold front will move
move into northeast Kansas during the day on Monday. Forecast
soundings show a stout capping inversion which will keep convection
from developing along the front. Dynamic forcing increases Monday
night as the trough processes eastward for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Good moisture advection may lead to some
locally heavy rainfall Monday night. The upper level trough axis
moves through on Tuesday and bringing an end to the precipitation by
early evening. Temperatures will be more fall like behind the
departing system with cool high pressure keeping highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Models continue to show enough of a pressure gradient to keep some
wind at the surface through the morning. Think this along with high
cirrus overhead may be enough to keep the fog light and VSBY MVFR.
The exception is MHK where winds have gone calm. There could be a
brief period of IFR VSBY but think this would be temporary. With
mixing and insolation, the boundary layer should mix out by late
morning leading to VFR conditions through the rest of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232259
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The 1930Z water vapor imagery showing exiting shortwave trough
across eastern KS with backing flow aloft ushering in high level
moisture from the high plains. The high level moisture matches up
well with the sct-bkn cirrus shield that will overspread the county
warning areas this evening and overnight. The low level cloud deck
has slowed across the southeast 1/3 of the CWA and is expected to
diminish and slowly advect northward later this evening and
overnight...although not expecting the cloud cover to be
overcast...but should be enough along with increased mixing in the
boundary layer to offset low level dense fog...although some patchy
is expected later tonight with moisture advection increasing across
the north and east. Kept lows in the middle 50s.

On Friday...warm advection will continue across most residual clouds
lift off to the north and east of the CWA. Temps at 850 warm to near
20 deg C over the western counties so highs there in the middle 80s
look on track with the lower 80s east. Winds should remain south at
speeds generally in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A weak frontal boundary will slide south into northeast Kansas
Friday night and Saturday with light easterly winds. Mixing is
rather shallow on Saturday which will offset warming at 850 MB into
the 18 to 21 degrees Celsius. Still should see highs in the mid to
upper 70s with areas near central Kansas warming to the lower 80s.

An upper level ridge will move across the Southern and Central
Plains Sunday and Sunday night in advance of a longwave trough
moving across the western states. 850 MB temperatures warm again
into the 18C to 21C range on Sunday and soundings show mixing from
around 850 MB. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 80s.

Monday through Tuesday night the upper level trough will move across
the Rockies and across the Central Plains. A cold front will move
move into northeast Kansas during the day on Monday. Forecast
soundings show a stout capping inversion which will keep convection
from developing along the front. Dynamic forcing increases Monday
night as the trough processes eastward for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Good moisture advection may lead to some
locally heavy rainfall Monday night. The upper level trough axis
moves through on Tuesday and bringing an end to the precipitation by
early evening. Temperatures will be more fall like behind the
departing system with cool high pressure keeping highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Concerned that fog could develop overnight with light winds and
recent rainfall. However models show the pressure gradient
gradually increasing overnight while high cirrus continues to
overspread the area. Models do not seem to be keen on the idea of
stratus developing with some mid level dry air advecting in from
the west and possibly entraining into the top of the boundary
layer. Since there isn`t an ideal radiational cooling setup, will
keep a mention of MVFR VSBY at TOP and FOE. Less rainfall and more
mixing this afternoon makes fog a little less likely at MHK so
will monitor trends but not include a mention of BR just yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232038
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The 1930Z water vapor imagery showing exiting shortwave trough
across eastern KS with backing flow aloft ushering in high level
moisture from the high plains. The high level moisture matches up
well with the sct-bkn cirrus shield that will overspread the county
warning areas this evening and overnight. The low level cloud deck
has slowed across the southeast 1/3 of the cwa and is expected to
diminish and slowly advect northward later this evening and
overnight...although not expecting the cloudcover to be
overcast...but should be enough along with increased mixing in the
boundary layer to offset low level dense fog...although some patchy
is expected later tonight with moisture advection increasing across
the north and east. Kept lows in the middle 50s.

On Friday...warm advection will continue across most residual clouds
lift off to the north and east of the cwa. Temps at 850 warm to near
20 deg C over the western counties so highs there in the middle 80s
look on track with the lower 80s east. Winds should remain south at
speeds generally in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A weak frontal boundary will slide south into northeast Kansas
Friday night and Saturday with light easterly winds. Mixing is
rather shallow on Saturday which will offset warming at 850 mb into
the 18 to 21 degrees Celsius. Still should see highs in the mid to
upper 70s with areas near central Kansas warming to the lower 80s.

An upper level ridge will move across the Southern and Central
Plains Sunday and Sunday night in advance of a longwave trough
moving across the western states. 850 mb temperatures warm again
into the 18C to 21C range on Sunday and soundings show mixing from
around 850 mb. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 80s.

Monday through Tuesday night the upper level trough will move across
the Rockies and across the Central Plains. A cold front will move
move into northeast Kansas during the day on Monday. Forecast
soundings show a stout capping inversion which will keep convection
from developing along the front. Dynamic forcing increases Monday
night as the trough processes eastward for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Good moisture advection may lead to some
locally heavy rainfall Monday night. The upper level trough axis
moves through on Tuesday and bringing an end to the precipitation by
early evening. Temperatures will be more fall like behind the
departing system with cool high pressure keeping highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mvfr cigs at KTOP/KFOE will gradually increase to VFR (3500 ft) aft
23z but remain VFR at KMHK as low level moisture axis shifts east
of the KMHK taf site as winds slowly decrease. This axis of deeper
moisture overnight may allow for mvfr cigs and fog to redevelop in
the KTOP/KFOE terminals aft 06z however. If cloudcover or low
level mixing aft 06z are less extensive/weaker...then lower cigs
and vsbys in stratus and fog could occur.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving across the central and northern
plains this morning. Mid level forcing and some weak frontogenesis
has caused a band of showers to form and progress eastward through
the forecast area. Instability is limited due to mid level capping
and weak lapse rates, so only expect isolated thunder at times.
Rainfall amounts appear to generally be at or under a quarter of an
inch. The back edge of the precipitation has already passed through
north central KS and expect that clearing out from west to east to
continue through the morning. Models agree that the last of the rain
should exit east central KS around 16Z. The uncertainty with this
forecast is how long the clouds linger behind the band of showers.
Also, patchy fog will be possible across north central KS later this
morning. Although current IR shows low stratus already building into
that area, which may limit fog development. If the clouds hold into
the early afternoon hours or later the temperatures today will be
cooler. Some of the short term models are suggesting that the clouds
could hold through the overnight hours across most of the area. Have
lowered the high temps a few degrees into the mid to low 70s to
account for this scenario. Also kept the trend of the coolest
locations being east and north central KS where the clouds will
likely linger the longest. The NAM is suggesting clouds will last
through tonight only to clear out early tomorrow morning, which
could set up the potential for fog again. Confidence in the forecast
beyond mid day is low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Friday through Saturday...a southern stream upper level ridge will
move eastward into the southern and central plains.

On Friday, Westerly 850mb winds will advect 19-22 DEG C 850mb temps
across the CWA Friday afternoon. Deeper mixing will allow surface
winds to become southwesterly and temperatures to warm into the
lower to mid 80s.

An upper level trough will ride over the southern plains ridge axis
and deepen as it digs southeast across the Great Lakes States. Weak
CAA across the upper Midwest into the mid MS river valley Friday
night into Saturday morning will cause a weak back door cold front
to push southwest across the CWA on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
cooler in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Sunday through Monday, an upper level trough across the western US
will move east across the central Rockies into the high plains by
00Z TUE. A lee surface trough will deepen across western KS during
the day on Sunday. Stronger southerly winds will help to warm
temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday afternoon. A surface cold
front will begin to push southeast into north central KS Monday
afternoon and there may be enough surface convergence ahead of
the front for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s despite increasing cloud cover.

Monday night through Tuesday evening, the upper level trough will
move east across the plains and amplify. Stronger ascent will allow
Showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern KS ahead of the
front as well as post frontal. The front will move southeast of the
CWA by 12Z TUE thus most of the thunderstorms should move east into
MO. The post frontal rain showers will last through most of the day
but should move out of east central KS during the early evening
hours of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis moves east into MO.
Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s with cloud cover, periods
of light rain and northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Wednesday, skies should clear during the morning hours. A surface
ridge of high pressure will move southeast across the CWA into OK
and AR by the late afternoon hours. Highs will continue to be in the
lower to mid 60s despite insolation during much of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mvfr cigs at KTOP/KFOE will gradually increase to VFR (3500 ft) aft
23z but remain VFR at KMHK as low level moisture axis shifts east
of the KMHK taf site as winds slowly decrease. This axis of deeper
moisture overnight may allow for mvfr cigs and fog to redevelop in
the KTOP/KFOE terminals aft 06z however. If cloudcover or low
level mixing aft 06z are less extensive/weaker...then lower cigs
and vsbys in stratus and fog could occur.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving across the central and northern
plains this morning. Mid level forcing and some weak frontogenesis
has caused a band of showers to form and progress eastward through
the forecast area. Instability is limited due to mid level capping
and weak lapse rates, so only expect isolated thunder at times.
Rainfall amounts appear to generally be at or under a quarter of an
inch. The back edge of the precipitation has already passed through
north central KS and expect that clearing out from west to east to
continue through the morning. Models agree that the last of the rain
should exit east central KS around 16Z. The uncertainty with this
forecast is how long the clouds linger behind the band of showers.
Also, patchy fog will be possible across north central KS later this
morning. Although current IR shows low stratus already building into
that area, which may limit fog development. If the clouds hold into
the early afternoon hours or later the temperatures today will be
cooler. Some of the short term models are suggesting that the clouds
could hold through the overnight hours across most of the area. Have
lowered the high temps a few degrees into the mid to low 70s to
account for this scenario. Also kept the trend of the coolest
locations being east and north central KS where the clouds will
likely linger the longest. The NAM is suggesting clouds will last
through tonight only to clear out early tomorrow morning, which
could set up the potential for fog again. Confidence in the forecast
beyond mid day is low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Friday through Saturday...a southern stream upper level ridge will
move eastward into the southern and central plains.

On Friday, Westerly 850mb winds will advect 19-22 DEG C 850mb temps
across the CWA Friday afternoon. Deeper mixing will allow surface
winds to become southwesterly and temperatures to warm into the
lower to mid 80s.

An upper level trough will ride over the southern plains ridge axis
and deepen as it digs southeast across the Great Lakes States. Weak
CAA across the upper Midwest into the mid MS river valley Friday
night into Saturday morning will cause a weak back door cold front
to push southwest across the CWA on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
cooler in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Sunday through Monday, an upper level trough across the western US
will move east across the central Rockies into the high plains by
00Z TUE. A lee surface trough will deepen across western KS during
the day on Sunday. Stronger southerly winds will help to warm
temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday afternoon. A surface cold
front will begin to push southeast into north central KS Monday
afternoon and there may be enough surface convergence ahead of
the front for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s despite increasing cloud cover.

Monday night through Tuesday evening, the upper level trough will
move east across the plains and amplify. Stronger ascent will allow
Showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern KS ahead of the
front as well as post frontal. The front will move southeast of the
CWA by 12Z TUE thus most of the thunderstorms should move east into
MO. The post frontal rain showers will last through most of the day
but should move out of east central KS during the early evening
hours of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis moves east into MO.
Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s with cloud cover, periods
of light rain and northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Wednesday, skies should clear during the morning hours. A surface
ridge of high pressure will move southeast across the CWA into OK
and AR by the late afternoon hours. Highs will continue to be in the
lower to mid 60s despite insolation during much of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mvfr cigs at KTOP/KFOE will gradually increase to VFR (3500 ft) aft
23z but remain VFR at KMHK as low level moisture axis shifts east
of the KMHK taf site as winds slowly decrease. This axis of deeper
moisture overnight may allow for mvfr cigs and fog to redevelop in
the KTOP/KFOE terminals aft 06z however. If cloudcover or low
level mixing aft 06z are less extensive/weaker...then lower cigs
and vsbys in stratus and fog could occur.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving across the central and northern
plains this morning. Mid level forcing and some weak frontogenesis
has caused a band of showers to form and progress eastward through
the forecast area. Instability is limited due to mid level capping
and weak lapse rates, so only expect isolated thunder at times.
Rainfall amounts appear to generally be at or under a quarter of an
inch. The back edge of the precipitation has already passed through
north central KS and expect that clearing out from west to east to
continue through the morning. Models agree that the last of the rain
should exit east central KS around 16Z. The uncertainty with this
forecast is how long the clouds linger behind the band of showers.
Also, patchy fog will be possible across north central KS later this
morning. Although current IR shows low stratus already building into
that area, which may limit fog development. If the clouds hold into
the early afternoon hours or later the temperatures today will be
cooler. Some of the short term models are suggesting that the clouds
could hold through the overnight hours across most of the area. Have
lowered the high temps a few degrees into the mid to low 70s to
account for this scenario. Also kept the trend of the coolest
locations being east and north central KS where the clouds will
likely linger the longest. The NAM is suggesting clouds will last
through tonight only to clear out early tomorrow morning, which
could set up the potential for fog again. Confidence in the forecast
beyond mid day is low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Friday through Saturday...a southern stream upper level ridge will
move eastward into the southern and central plains.

On Friday, Westerly 850mb winds will advect 19-22 DEG C 850mb temps
across the CWA Friday afternoon. Deeper mixing will allow surface
winds to become southwesterly and temperatures to warm into the
lower to mid 80s.

An upper level trough will ride over the southern plains ridge axis
and deepen as it digs southeast across the Great Lakes States. Weak
CAA across the upper Midwest into the mid MS river valley Friday
night into Saturday morning will cause a weak back door cold front
to push southwest across the CWA on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
cooler in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Sunday through Monday, an upper level trough across the western US
will move east across the central Rockies into the high plains by
00Z TUE. A lee surface trough will deepen across western KS during
the day on Sunday. Stronger southerly winds will help to warm
temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday afternoon. A surface cold
front will begin to push southeast into north central KS Monday
afternoon and there may be enough surface convergence ahead of
the front for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s despite increasing cloud cover.

Monday night through Tuesday evening, the upper level trough will
move east across the plains and amplify. Stronger ascent will allow
Showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern KS ahead of the
front as well as post frontal. The front will move southeast of the
CWA by 12Z TUE thus most of the thunderstorms should move east into
MO. The post frontal rain showers will last through most of the day
but should move out of east central KS during the early evening
hours of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis moves east into MO.
Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s with cloud cover, periods
of light rain and northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Wednesday, skies should clear during the morning hours. A surface
ridge of high pressure will move southeast across the CWA into OK
and AR by the late afternoon hours. Highs will continue to be in the
lower to mid 60s despite insolation during much of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Stratus will be the main issue with this taf period. For now the
cigs appear to stay in the MVFR category and the vis should remain
in VFR. Most of the models are suggesting the clouds will linger
through 00Z Fri. At some point the cigs could lift to VFR,
although given the model spread pinning down that time is difficult.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230837
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Shortwave trough currently moving across the central and northern
plains this morning. Mid level forcing and some weak frontogenesis
has caused a band of showers to form and progress eastward through
the forecast area. Instability is limited due to mid level capping
and weak lapse rates, so only expect isolated thunder at times.
Rainfall amounts appear to generally be at or under a quarter of an
inch. The back edge of the precipitation has already passed through
north central KS and expect that clearing out from west to east to
continue through the morning. Models agree that the last of the rain
should exit east central KS around 16Z. The uncertainty with this
forecast is how long the clouds linger behind the band of showers.
Also, patchy fog will be possible across north central KS later this
morning. Although current IR shows low stratus already building into
that area, which may limit fog development. If the clouds hold into
the early afternoon hours or later the temperatures today will be
cooler. Some of the short term models are suggesting that the clouds
could hold through the overnight hours across most of the area. Have
lowered the high temps a few degrees into the mid to low 70s to
account for this scenario. Also kept the trend of the coolest
locations being east and north central KS where the clouds will
likely linger the longest. The NAM is suggesting clouds will last
through tonight only to clear out early tomorrow morning, which
could set up the potential for fog again. Confidence in the forecast
beyond mid day is low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Friday through Saturday...a southern stream upper level ridge will
move eastward into the southern and central plains.

On Friday, Westerly 850mb winds will advect 19-22 DEG C 850mb temps
across the CWA Friday afternoon. Deeper mixing will allow surface
winds to become southwesterly and temperatures to warm into the
lower to mid 80s.

An upper level trough will ride over the southern plains ridge axis
and deepen as it digs southeast across the Great Lakes States. Weak
CAA across the upper Midwest into the mid MS river valley Friday
night into Saturday morning will cause a weak back door cold front
to push southwest across the CWA on Saturday. Highs will be slightly
cooler in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

Sunday through Monday, an upper level trough across the western US
will move east across the central Rockies into the high plains by
00Z TUE. A lee surface trough will deepen across western KS during
the day on Sunday. Stronger southerly winds will help to warm
temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday afternoon. A surface cold
front will begin to push southeast into north central KS Monday
afternoon and there may be enough surface convergence ahead of
the front for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late
Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s despite increasing cloud cover.

Monday night through Tuesday evening, the upper level trough will
move east across the plains and amplify. Stronger ascent will allow
Showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern KS ahead of the
front as well as post frontal. The front will move southeast of the
CWA by 12Z TUE thus most of the thunderstorms should move east into
MO. The post frontal rain showers will last through most of the day
but should move out of east central KS during the early evening
hours of Tuesday as the upper level trough axis moves east into MO.
Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s with cloud cover, periods
of light rain and northwest winds of 15 to 20 MPH.

Wednesday, skies should clear during the morning hours. A surface
ridge of high pressure will move southeast across the CWA into OK
and AR by the late afternoon hours. Highs will continue to be in the
lower to mid 60s despite insolation during much of the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








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