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000
FXUS63 KTOP 302339
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the main  southwest
upper trough rotating towards AZ while areas of vorticity maxima
and precipitation stretch further eastward towards CO and NM.
Across British Columbia, Canada, an additional shortwave trough
was tracking southeast, progged to impact our CWA later in the
weekend.

In the meantime, focus turns to the areas of mid level moisture
increasing west to east as the upper trough slowly progresses
towards the central plains tonight. Observations combined with
short term guidance remain in agreement with areas of rain showers
lifting north and east, increasing in coverage and intensity by
sunrise Saturday. Onset of precip commences between sunset and
midnight tonight over north central Kansas where best chances for
accumulating rainfall are possible. After midnight, higher chances
spread towards east central KS. Profilers show ice growth
occurring in the dendritic zone while gradually warming at or just
above freezing within the lowest 3 kft from the sfc. For this
reason, rain may mix with snow especially from midnight through
mid morning Saturday as lows drop between 31 and 33 degrees. Any
snowfall is not expected to accumulate with the warmer ground
temps in place. Best area for this scenario occurring is across
north central KS where slick spots may be possible on elevated
surfaces early Saturday morning.

On Saturday, boundary layer winds increase from the south,
lifting warmer air back into the area. Forecast highs between
guidance continued to trend in the upper 30s with a few locations
near 40 degrees during the late afternoon. Main precipitation
shield arrives during this time where high confidence lead to
adding definite precip chances for the entire CWA. Lift remains
persistent during this time as rainfall efficiency maximizes with
PWAT values at 3 standard deviations above the normal for this
time of year. Widespread light to moderate rainfall may reach half
of an inch by late afternoon before the next wave and colder air
arrives from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Abundant moisture advection continues to stream across the
forecast area Saturday evening and into the overnight hours into
early Sunday. Temperatures across the northern counties drop from
middle 30s early evening toward the upper 20s by midnight, while
counties in the southeast are likely to remain above freezing for
much of these same hours. Will carry a rain/snow mix NC with rain
to the SE, and may see a light accumulation in the NC counties in
by around midnight.

Best chances for any snow to accumulate still come in the 06-12z
window as the strong cold air advection brings a quick drop in
temperatures across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area and
generally north of I70. By this time, QPF values in colder areas
are generally less than a tenth of an inch, while warmer areas
southeast that stay in the rain may pick up another quarter inch
of rainfall. Moisture becomes scant after 12z for much of the area
and will only carry some light accumulations as the cold air and
its high snow/liquid ratio with what remaining moisture there is
makes a quick sweep through the eastern half of the area by the
early afternoon hours. Highs may start out overnight in the 20s
and 30s but fall throughout the day as the cold front comes in.
Lows fall into the teens to single digits into Sunday night.

Its worth noting that for much of this rain/snow event that there
may be only a few hours where the sounding is cold enough to
support snow making it to the surface, and have kept accumulations
in the northern counties generally around 1.5 to 2 inches. Farther
south along the interstate may see half an inch to an inch, but
for the most part the column remains too warm early on, then dries
out too quickly, to accumulate much in the southern areas.

Monday southerly winds make a return late in the day along with
some increase in cloud cover and should get high temperatures back
into the lower 30s. Nice recovery day on Tuesday as once again
another thermal trof sets up across our area ahead of the next
cold front, and mixes highs back up into the 50s. Strong front
comes in Tuesday night into Wednesday and may bring light snow or
a rain snow mix through as it passes. Highs currently forecast in
the 30s to low 40s but may end up lower if front comes south
faster as EC would suggest . Overnight lows forecast in the
teens, with highs on Thursday near 30 as colder high slides east,
warming to around 40 /near normal/ on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected to transition to MVFR cigs and vsbys
after 08Z with IFR cigs developing in the 15Z to 18Z time period.
Also expect initial vsbys to be VFR with the -RASN and then lower
to MVFR from 11Z through the end of the period with -SHRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 302339
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the main  southwest
upper trough rotating towards AZ while areas of vorticity maxima
and precipitation stretch further eastward towards CO and NM.
Across British Columbia, Canada, an additional shortwave trough
was tracking southeast, progged to impact our CWA later in the
weekend.

In the meantime, focus turns to the areas of mid level moisture
increasing west to east as the upper trough slowly progresses
towards the central plains tonight. Observations combined with
short term guidance remain in agreement with areas of rain showers
lifting north and east, increasing in coverage and intensity by
sunrise Saturday. Onset of precip commences between sunset and
midnight tonight over north central Kansas where best chances for
accumulating rainfall are possible. After midnight, higher chances
spread towards east central KS. Profilers show ice growth
occurring in the dendritic zone while gradually warming at or just
above freezing within the lowest 3 kft from the sfc. For this
reason, rain may mix with snow especially from midnight through
mid morning Saturday as lows drop between 31 and 33 degrees. Any
snowfall is not expected to accumulate with the warmer ground
temps in place. Best area for this scenario occurring is across
north central KS where slick spots may be possible on elevated
surfaces early Saturday morning.

On Saturday, boundary layer winds increase from the south,
lifting warmer air back into the area. Forecast highs between
guidance continued to trend in the upper 30s with a few locations
near 40 degrees during the late afternoon. Main precipitation
shield arrives during this time where high confidence lead to
adding definite precip chances for the entire CWA. Lift remains
persistent during this time as rainfall efficiency maximizes with
PWAT values at 3 standard deviations above the normal for this
time of year. Widespread light to moderate rainfall may reach half
of an inch by late afternoon before the next wave and colder air
arrives from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Abundant moisture advection continues to stream across the
forecast area Saturday evening and into the overnight hours into
early Sunday. Temperatures across the northern counties drop from
middle 30s early evening toward the upper 20s by midnight, while
counties in the southeast are likely to remain above freezing for
much of these same hours. Will carry a rain/snow mix NC with rain
to the SE, and may see a light accumulation in the NC counties in
by around midnight.

Best chances for any snow to accumulate still come in the 06-12z
window as the strong cold air advection brings a quick drop in
temperatures across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area and
generally north of I70. By this time, QPF values in colder areas
are generally less than a tenth of an inch, while warmer areas
southeast that stay in the rain may pick up another quarter inch
of rainfall. Moisture becomes scant after 12z for much of the area
and will only carry some light accumulations as the cold air and
its high snow/liquid ratio with what remaining moisture there is
makes a quick sweep through the eastern half of the area by the
early afternoon hours. Highs may start out overnight in the 20s
and 30s but fall throughout the day as the cold front comes in.
Lows fall into the teens to single digits into Sunday night.

Its worth noting that for much of this rain/snow event that there
may be only a few hours where the sounding is cold enough to
support snow making it to the surface, and have kept accumulations
in the northern counties generally around 1.5 to 2 inches. Farther
south along the interstate may see half an inch to an inch, but
for the most part the column remains too warm early on, then dries
out too quickly, to accumulate much in the southern areas.

Monday southerly winds make a return late in the day along with
some increase in cloud cover and should get high temperatures back
into the lower 30s. Nice recovery day on Tuesday as once again
another thermal trof sets up across our area ahead of the next
cold front, and mixes highs back up into the 50s. Strong front
comes in Tuesday night into Wednesday and may bring light snow or
a rain snow mix through as it passes. Highs currently forecast in
the 30s to low 40s but may end up lower if front comes south
faster as EC would suggest . Overnight lows forecast in the
teens, with highs on Thursday near 30 as colder high slides east,
warming to around 40 /near normal/ on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected to transition to MVFR cigs and vsbys
after 08Z with IFR cigs developing in the 15Z to 18Z time period.
Also expect initial vsbys to be VFR with the -RASN and then lower
to MVFR from 11Z through the end of the period with -SHRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 302132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the main  southwest
upper trough rotating towards AZ while areas of vorticity maxima
and precipitation stretch further eastward towards CO and NM.
Across British Columbia, Canada, an additional shortwave trough
was tracking southeast, progged to impact our CWA later in the
weekend.

In the meantime, focus turns to the areas of mid level moisture
increasing west to east as the upper trough slowly progresses
towards the central plains tonight. Observations combined with
short term guidance remain in agreement with areas of rain showers
lifting north and east, increasing in coverage and intensity by
sunrise Saturday. Onset of precip commences between sunset and
midnight tonight over north central Kansas where best chances for
accumulating rainfall are possible. After midnight, higher chances
spread towards east central KS. Profilers show ice growth
occurring in the dendritic zone while gradually warming at or just
above freezing within the lowest 3 kft from the sfc. For this
reason, rain may mix with snow especially from midnight through
mid morning Saturday as lows drop between 31 and 33 degrees. Any
snowfall is not expected to accumulate with the warmer ground
temps in place. Best area for this scenario occurring is across
north central KS where slick spots may be possible on elevated
surfaces early Saturday morning.

On Saturday, boundary layer winds increase from the south,
lifting warmer air back into the area. Forecast highs between
guidance continued to trend in the upper 30s with a few locations
near 40 degrees during the late afternoon. Main precipitation
shield arrives during this time where high confidence lead to
adding definite precip chances for the entire CWA. Lift remains
persistent during this time as rainfall efficiency maximizes with
PWAT values at 3 standard deviations above the normal for this
time of year. Widespread light to moderate rainfall may reach half
of an inch by late afternoon before the next wave and colder air
arrives from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Abundant moisture advection continues to stream across the
forecast area Saturday evening and into the overnight hours into
early Sunday. Temperatures across the northern counties drop from
middle 30s early evening toward the upper 20s by midnight, while
counties in the southeast are likely to remain above freezing for
much of these same hours. Will carry a rain/snow mix NC with rain
to the SE, and may see a light accumulation in the NC counties in
by around midnight.

Best chances for any snow to accumulate still come in the 06-12z
window as the strong cold air advection brings a quick drop in
temperatures across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area and
generally north of I70. By this time, QPF values in colder areas
are generally less than a tenth of an inch, while warmer areas
southeast that stay in the rain may pick up another quarter inch
of rainfall. Moisture becomes scant after 12z for much of the area
and will only carry some light accumulations as the cold air and
its high snow/liquid ratio with what remaining moisture there is
makes a quick sweep through the eastern half of the area by the
early afternoon hours. Highs may start out overnight in the 20s
and 30s but fall throughout the day as the cold front comes in.
Lows fall into the teens to single digits into Sunday night.

Its worth noting that for much of this rain/snow event that there
may be only a few hours where the sounding is cold enough to
support snow making it to the surface, and have kept accumulations
in the northern counties generally around 1.5 to 2 inches. Farther
south along the interstate may see half an inch to an inch, but
for the most part the column remains too warm early on, then dries
out too quickly, to accumulate much in the southern areas.

Monday southerly winds make a return late in the day along with
some increase in cloud cover and should get high temperatures back
into the lower 30s. Nice recovery day on Tuesday as once again
another thermal trof sets up across our area ahead of the next
cold front, and mixes highs back up into the 50s. Strong front
comes in Tuesday night into Wednesday and may bring light snow or
a rain snow mix through as it passes. Highs currently forecast in
the 30s to low 40s but may end up lower if front comes south
faster as EC would suggest . Overnight lows forecast in the
teens, with highs on Thursday near 30 as colder high slides east,
warming to around 40 /near normal/ on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon and early evening with high
clouds above 15 KFT increasing from the west. Next system from the
southwest begins to bring light rain showers near 06Z, starting
initially as light and then increasing in coverage and intensity
after 10Z. Arrival of the widespread rain bands add to some
uncertainty of timing of MVFR or lower cigs occurring thru 18Z.
Overall should expect categories to gradually lower potentially to
IFR by mid morning Saturday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.

Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.

Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.

Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.

Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.

Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon.  Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon and early evening with high
clouds above 15 KFT increasing from the west. Next system from the
southwest begins to bring light rain showers near 06Z, starting
initially as light and then increasing in coverage and intensity
after 10Z. Arrival of the widespread rain bands add to some
uncertainty of timing of MVFR or lower cigs occurring thru 18Z.
Overall should expect categories to gradually lower potentially to
IFR by mid morning Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 301745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.

Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.

Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.

Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.

Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.

Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon.  Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon and early evening with high
clouds above 15 KFT increasing from the west. Next system from the
southwest begins to bring light rain showers near 06Z, starting
initially as light and then increasing in coverage and intensity
after 10Z. Arrival of the widespread rain bands add to some
uncertainty of timing of MVFR or lower cigs occurring thru 18Z.
Overall should expect categories to gradually lower potentially to
IFR by mid morning Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301152 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.

Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.

Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.

Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.

Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.

Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon.  Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Expect only sct-bkn mid and high clouds through 03z as light east
winds veer to the south and southeast by 18z at speeds under 8 kts.
Increasing warm air advection with frontogenetical forcing aft
06z will result in cigs lowering to 3500 to 4000 feet and 5-6
miles in light rain through the end of the terminal forecast.
South winds will continue at speeds under 8 kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 301152 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.

Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.

Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.

Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.

Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.

Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon.  Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Expect only sct-bkn mid and high clouds through 03z as light east
winds veer to the south and southeast by 18z at speeds under 8 kts.
Increasing warm air advection with frontogenetical forcing aft
06z will result in cigs lowering to 3500 to 4000 feet and 5-6
miles in light rain through the end of the terminal forecast.
South winds will continue at speeds under 8 kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63









000
FXUS63 KTOP 300956
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Recent IR satellite and water vapor imagery showing high level
moisture/clouds spreading eastward across KS from the upper
trough in the southwest CONUS. Although initially thin...the clouds
will steadily but slowly thicken west to east across the cwa today
into this evening before becoming totally overcast tonight.
However...should still see some insolation combining with veering
low level flow to the south by afternoon and warm advection through
850 mb to push highs into the middle to upper 40s.

Clouds...some mixing and continued warm air advection tonight would
suggest nearly steady or even slightly rising temperatures in some
areas...however expect some evaporative cooling to occur so only
tweaked lows up slightly into the lower 30s. Forecast soundings
still showing freeze levels a little high for much snow to make it
to the ground before melting...but will keep it across the west and
north and go only rain chances south (east central) for now. Either
way...higher pops and no snow accumulation still in order across the
cwa overnight with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an
inch...especially east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Saturday through Saturday Night, An upper level trough across the
southwestern US will slowly move east into far west TX, while an
upper level trough embedded within the northern stream of the mid
and upper level jet digs southeast across the northern and central
high plains. Slightly warmer boundary layer air parcels will
advect northward across the CWA through he morning hours of
Saturday. Surface temperatures will warm from the lower to mid 30s
at 12Z Saturday into the mid and upper 30s by noon. Forecast
soundings show the depth of the warmer boundary layer airmass to
be warm enough to change the mix of rain and snow across much of
the CWA over to periods of light rain through the mid and late
morning hours of Saturday. Most of the CWA will see light rain
through the afternoon hours into the mid and late evening hours.
After midnight, the northern stream H5 trough will dig southeast
across the central plains bringing cooler air at both the surface
and 850mb. The light rain will begin to mix with snow and will
change over to light snow during the early morning hours of
Sunday. Most of the stronger ascent and frontogenetical forcing
will shift northeast of the CWA, thus any snow accumulations will
be light, with a dusting or less. The best chance of seeing
measurable snowfall will be across the northern counties of the
CWA where an inch of snow may fall late Saturday evening into
Sunday Morning. Some areas along the NE border may get over an
inch of snowfall, perhaps near 2 inches in northern Brown County.

Most areas should see about a half inch of rainfall with the eastern
counties receiving between one half and three quarters of an inch of
QPF. Once again the cold air in the low-levels will arrive too late
to see much in the way of snowfall. Overnight lows will drop into
the 20s across north central and northeast KS with lower to mid 30s
across east central KS.

Sunday through Sunday Night, the central plains H5 trough will
amplify On Sunday as it digs east-southeast across the mid MS
river valley. Portions of northern IL, northern IN and Northern OH
will see 6 to 8 inches of snowfall on Sunday. There may be some
left over flurries for very light snow during the morning hours of
Sunday across the eastern counties of the CWA. Strong low-level
CAA will only allow Highs to reach the mid 20s along the NE border
to the mid 30s across the southeast counties. North winds of 15 to
25 MPH with higher gusts will make it feel much colder on Sunday.
Any leftover moisture on area roadways may freeze causing slick
spots on area roadways Sunday morning.

Lows Sunday night will drop into the teens and perhaps some single
digits along the NE border.

Monday through Thursday, A longer wave length upper trough will
remain across the eastern US. Monday will continue to be cold as a
surface ridge of high pressure builds southeast across eastern KS.
Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s. We`ll see a brief warm
up on Tuesday ahead of the next surge of cold air by mid week. Highs
on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 40s. Wednesday another
strong cold front will move southward across the CWA. Highs on
Wednesday may occur during the morning hours, with temperatures
falling into the 20s by afternoon.  Highs on Thursday will only
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s, though the ECMWF if much colder and
if it were to verify, highs may only reach the teens. An H5 trough
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will track southeast across
CO into OK and bring a chance of accumulating snowfall to western
and southern KS on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Will continue with VFR conditions, though a few brief issues
possible. Some BR potential remains in the hours near 12Z, though
some wind persists on area obs and thickening high cloud arrives
near this time. HRRR visibility output has been too aggressive with
lowering values so far as well. Precip concern ramps up mainly
near MHK at the end of this forecast, but not convinced on
occurrence and intensity for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 300529
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Will continue with VFR conditions, though a few brief issues
possible. Some BR potential remains in the hours near 12Z, though
some wind persists on area obs and thickening high cloud arrives
near this time. HRRR visibility output has been too aggressive with
lowering values so far as well. Precip concern ramps up mainly
near MHK at the end of this forecast, but not convinced on
occurrence and intensity for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 300529
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Will continue with VFR conditions, though a few brief issues
possible. Some BR potential remains in the hours near 12Z, though
some wind persists on area obs and thickening high cloud arrives
near this time. HRRR visibility output has been too aggressive with
lowering values so far as well. Precip concern ramps up mainly
near MHK at the end of this forecast, but not convinced on
occurrence and intensity for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 292320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR conditions should dominate. Have some concern for light fog
potential around 12Z, but models are similar with 10-15kt north
winds persisting to near this time and cirrus increasing, will
keep this out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 292320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR conditions should dominate. Have some concern for light fog
potential around 12Z, but models are similar with 10-15kt north
winds persisting to near this time and cirrus increasing, will
keep this out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 292123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR ceilings will persist through the evening hours before exiting
the region. A surface ridge will cause light and variable winds
overnight with mostly clear skies. Limited moisture should prevent fog
development although conditions may support reduced visibilities during
the predawn hours. Winds will gradually veer through the period
and eventually end up out of the south.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 292123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The shortwave that moved over the region will continue eastward into
the mid MS valley. In the wake of the departing system high pressure
will build in from the northwest overnight. Meanwhile the cloud
cover in place should gradually erode and trend eastward, which is
evident on the latest satellite loop. Winds will decrease this
evening as the pressure gradient weakens near the high center. Skies
will clear out after sunset allowing decent rational cooling to take
effect as the surface ridge slides across the area. Timing of the
ridge should place it directly bisecting the forecast area during
early morning hours, which should strengthen the nocturnal
inversion. Therefore, have went lower than guidance regarding
temperatures tonight, which drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s.
Due to the limited moisture in the boundary layer and soil do not
expect fog to develop although reduced visibilities or haze will be
possible. The stronger northwest flow aloft gets shunted off to the
east as the ridge builds in ahead of the system over the southwest
US. High pressure retreats allowing for return flow and increase in
mid to high level clouds. Advection is rather weak tomorrow so
expect high temperatures in the 40s like today although with much
less wind.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

By Friday evening, system moving out of the southwest starts to
bring rain into the area from the west. Temperatures remain near
steady in the 30s and are generally near or above freezing for
much of Friday night into Saturday. That being said, considering
that temperatures are below freezing above the surface, expect
that a mix of rain and snow will fall through the overnight hours.
Not expecting much to accumulate, but could bring some slick spots
on roads overnight.

By Saturday around noon, enough warm air is forecast to push back
northward to change precipitation back over to rain, save the
colder counties along the Nebraska border which are more likely
to see a rain/snow mix. Secondary upper wave dropping in from the
northwest starts to push colder temperatures back into eastern
Kansas, and the rain/snow mix shifts slowly southeast through the
evening. Some light accumulations are possible along the Nebraska
border in the afternoon. At this time, around 03z the freezing
mark is forecast to have shifted across the area and will change
precipitation back over to all snow. This could be bit aggressive
with the colder air, and the southeast counties may see a later
start to any falling snow. 06-12z have forecast 1-2 inches across
the northeast and eastern counties. As the colder air drives
southward through the day on Sunday, may see an additional inch or
so across the far east northeast as another weak wave moves across
those areas. Total amounts forecast are highest over Brown/Nemaha
counties with nearly 4 inches, but tapers to 1-2 inches along the I70
corridor. Overall, temperatures are so close to freezing and make
this a challenging forecast, as does the initial warm air
advection followed by the then stronger cold front and secondary
wave, so anticipate some adjustments to amounts as event draws
closer.

Sunday night as cold high pressure moves overhead, lows fall into
the teens. Highs on Monday should rise back into the 30s as
southerly winds and the high plains lee trof return. May make it
back up into the 40s Tuesday before the next cold front comes
through Tuesday night with another reinforcing shot late
Wednesday. Highs overall in the 30s with lows in the upper teens
to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR ceilings will persist through the evening hours before exiting
the region. A surface ridge will cause light and variable winds
overnight with mostly clear skies. Limited moisture should prevent fog
development although conditions may support reduced visibilities during
the predawn hours. Winds will gradually veer through the period
and eventually end up out of the south.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 291715
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1115 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The stronger wind gusts seems to be more isolated than earlier,
and overall obs show winds speeds below 30 MPH. With the RAP and
NAM showing the pressure gradient remaining at its current
magnitude or gradually weakening, will allow the wind advisory to
expire at 7 am. Nevertheless northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will
persist through much of the day.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR ceilings will persist through the evening hours before exiting
the region. A surface ridge will cause light and variable winds
overnight with mostly clear skies. Limited moisture should prevent fog
development although conditions may support reduced visibilities during
the predawn hours. Winds will gradually veer through the period
and eventually end up out of the south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 291715
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1115 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The stronger wind gusts seems to be more isolated than earlier,
and overall obs show winds speeds below 30 MPH. With the RAP and
NAM showing the pressure gradient remaining at its current
magnitude or gradually weakening, will allow the wind advisory to
expire at 7 am. Nevertheless northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will
persist through much of the day.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR ceilings will persist through the evening hours before exiting
the region. A surface ridge will cause light and variable winds
overnight with mostly clear skies. Limited moisture should prevent fog
development although conditions may support reduced visibilities during
the predawn hours. Winds will gradually veer through the period
and eventually end up out of the south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291232
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The stronger wind gusts seems to be more isolated than earlier,
and overall obs show winds speeds below 30 MPH. With the RAP and
NAM showing the pressure gradient remaining at its current
magnitude or gradually weakening, will allow the wind advisory to
expire at 7 am. Nevertheless northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will
persist through much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Stratus continues to fill in from the north, and think it will
remain over the terminals for much of the day, until subsidence
from a second shortwave overspreads the area. For the most part
CIGS should remain above 2 KFT. Did lean on the optimistic side by
mixing CIGS above 3 KFT by noon based on the RAP forecast
soundings. But given how expansive the stratus is upstream, there
is some uncertainty in whether CIGS will lift and when they will
mix out. Gusty northwest and north winds will persist through the
day until the pressure gradient relaxes towards sunset.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291232
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

The stronger wind gusts seems to be more isolated than earlier,
and overall obs show winds speeds below 30 MPH. With the RAP and
NAM showing the pressure gradient remaining at its current
magnitude or gradually weakening, will allow the wind advisory to
expire at 7 am. Nevertheless northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH will
persist through much of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Stratus continues to fill in from the north, and think it will
remain over the terminals for much of the day, until subsidence
from a second shortwave overspreads the area. For the most part
CIGS should remain above 2 KFT. Did lean on the optimistic side by
mixing CIGS above 3 KFT by noon based on the RAP forecast
soundings. But given how expansive the stratus is upstream, there
is some uncertainty in whether CIGS will lift and when they will
mix out. Gusty northwest and north winds will persist through the
day until the pressure gradient relaxes towards sunset.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 291050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
450 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Stratus continues to fill in from the north, and think it will
remain over the terminals for much of the day, until subsidence
from a second shortwave overspreads the area. For the most part
CIGS should remain above 2 KFT. Did lean on the optimistic side by
mixing CIGS above 3 KFT by noon based on the RAP forecast
soundings. But given how expansive the stratus is upstream, there
is some uncertainty in whether CIGS will lift and when they will
mix out. Gusty northwest and north winds will persist through the
day until the pressure gradient relaxes towards sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
450 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30 MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7 am. By then the pressure gradient
is expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the CWA...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the CWA as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern CWA with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern CWA if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 450 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Stratus continues to fill in from the north, and think it will
remain over the terminals for much of the day, until subsidence
from a second shortwave overspreads the area. For the most part
CIGS should remain above 2 KFT. Did lean on the optimistic side by
mixing CIGS above 3 KFT by noon based on the RAP forecast
soundings. But given how expansive the stratus is upstream, there
is some uncertainty in whether CIGS will lift and when they will
mix out. Gusty northwest and north winds will persist through the
day until the pressure gradient relaxes towards sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 291025
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7am. By then the pressure gradient is
expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the cwa...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the cwa as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern cwa with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern cwa if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Only minor alterations to the forecast. Stratus field a bit
farther west than earlier guidance suggested and have trended MHK a
bit earlier and and TOP and FOE a bit later. Return to VFR looking
a touch quicker as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 291025
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A shortwave could be seen on the 08Z water vapor imagery passing
overhead into MO with a second shortwave moving southeast through SD
and WY. an upper level low pressure system was seen spinning well
off the Baja California coast and shortwaves within faster flow near
40N and 145W were moving towards the British Columbia coast. At the
surface, high pressure was building south through the central plains
causing gusty northwest winds from a tight pressure gradient. In
fact the gradient has been strong enough for sustained winds of
30MPH and an occasional gust up to 45 MPH. Because of this, have
issued a wind advisory until 7am. By then the pressure gradient is
expected to begin relaxing.

For today and tonight, the weather should remain relatively quiet
due to increasing dry air as the surface high pressure system
continues to move south. Because of this the shortwave over SD and
WY is not expected to do much in terms of sensible weather. However
subsidence behind this wave should help to erode away the low
stratus that has moved in, and think skies should clear out by the
late afternoon. Since there is not a lot of cold air behind this
front and models show the boundary layer mixing to almost 850MB,
think highs in the middle 40s looks reasonable. Lows tonight should
be a bit colder as the ridge axis moves in creating light winds with
clear skies. Expecting good radiational conditions, have adjusted
min temps down to around 20. Models show pretty high RH values
developing Friday morning suggestive of fog. Am not real confident
in fog formation since we have not had any meaningful precip lately
and soils remain very dry. Because of this think dewpoints are
likely to remain a couple degrees cooler than the air temp.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Gradual warm advection will take place through the day Friday
following a cold start and the arrival of the thicker high clouds
now appears will be delayed...therefore highs should recover back into
the low to middle 40s for highs.

Friday night...low and mid level warm air and moisture advection
will increase across the county warning area and persist into
Saturday. Although the atmosphere will initially be very dry
across the cwa...saturation will slowly occur west to east across
the cwa as warm air and moisture advection increases. Will maintain
a slight chance for precip over the north central in the
evening...with a increasing chances all areas overnight. Forecast
soundings Friday night continue to trend slightly warmer and
dewpoints increasing slightly as well. With still a fairly shallow
depth of warm air in place in the low levels...precip could fall as
rain or snow...although if surface temps fall to or below
freezing...precip would likely be snow. Will continue to carry a
rain/snow chance most areas Friday night...then mainly north of I 70
through Saturday. Areas south of I 70 should mainly be rain by
Saturday afternoon as freeze levels slowly increase in the
afternoon.

By late afternoon the GFS is the most aggressive with the arrival of
the colder air/front across the northern cwa with a possible
changeover to all snow which would slowly spread southward through
Saturday night. The EC and GEM are a little slower but still brings
the colder air southward through the night. Snow chances linger
through Sunday morning most areas...but should also decrease with
time as the main upper trough pushes through. At this
point...snowfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range most
areas...but could be locally higher across the northern cwa if the
cold air moves in quicker.

After highs Saturday around 40...colder and blustery conditions will
be the rule Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
Although wind speeds will decrease Sunday night...low temps in the 7
to 12 degree range will produce wind chills near zero.

Return flow to the south Monday should allow temps to recover back
into the upper 20s/lower 30s...then the lower 40s Tuesday before
another shortwave trough moving through the northern Plains pushes a
front through the area that night with slightly cooler highs in the
30s and low 40s on Wednesday. For now appears any snow chance will
remain north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Only minor alterations to the forecast. Stratus field a bit
farther west than earlier guidance suggested and have trended MHK a
bit earlier and and TOP and FOE a bit later. Return to VFR looking
a touch quicker as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ009>012-023-024-
026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 290538
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Shortwave over the central Rockies is now moving over the plains and
eventually into the longwave trough over the eastern US. There is
very limited moisture and lift with this system therefore expect dry
conditions as it tracks across KS. Ahead of the system a front
currently located over central KS will gradually shift eastward. The
deepest mixing today has occurred ahead of the front with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. In north central KS
cloud cover and shallow mixing along the front has kept temperatures
in the upper 50s. High level clouds have spread over the entire
area, which may limit any further warming beyond a few degrees. With
the deep mixing RH values have managed the mid to lower 20 percent
range. Winds in the same regions are gusting 25 to 35 mph causing
very high fire danger for the rest of the afternoon. As the front
sweeps across the area winds shift to the northwest and increase
especially after midnight when the shortwave exits the region. Wind
gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected to last through early
afternoon tomorrow. Cold air advection overnight will cause the
boundary layer to remain mixed and low temperatures to stay in the
mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler, and lower cloud
cover moves in from the north. High temperatures range from 45 to 50
degrees with the warmest temps over central KS where cloud cover may
be less than far northeast and eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper trough will be shifting slowly east across southern
California on Friday with southwesterly flow aloft streaming mid
and upper level moisture toward the Plains. A northern stream
trough will also be diving southeast out of Montana by Saturday
morning and taking aim on the Central Plains by late Saturday.

Friday will be seasonal with temperatures in the lower to middle
40s for highs, and somewhat limited by incoming cloud cover from
the southwest as moisture streams into the area. Temperatures will
fall into the lower 30s on Friday evening but should then remain
nearly steady or even rise a bit overnight as cloud cover and
south winds increase a bit. Lead short wave energy will approach
the area from the southwest after midnight, bringing enhanced lift
into central KS before sunrise. Dry air in the low levels should
preclude much precip from reaching the surface through sunrise,
but have included a slight chance in central KS.

During the day on Saturday, the initial lead short wave will move
across the area with a secondary piece of energy impacting the
area by later in the day. Should note here that model guidance has
been highly variable regarding precip Saturday into Saturday night
given that only minor fluctuations in timing of the SW and NW
systems will impact phasing and resultant precip. Current
indication is that the bulk of precip will be focused south of
I-70 where temperatures will also be a bit warmer, favoring more
of a rain event...but this is still subject to change.

The early waves should provide enough lift in conjunction with the
ample mid and upper moisture to saturate the column down and bring
rounds of precipitation. Temperature profiles are walking a very
fine line between rain and snow, and could see the precip type
fluctuate based on precipitation intensity and dendritic flake
size as the near-surface melting layer should remain with similar
temperatures through the day. Given the current expected profile,
have maintained the forecast for a rain or snow mix through the
day on Saturday and into the evening. Currently expect air and
ground temperatures to be warm enough to preclude any decent snow
accumulation, although there could be occasional slushy build-up
on the roads if any bands of moderate snow can develop. Warm
temperatures continue into the evening, but the system coming from
the northwest eventually brings a stout cold front into the area
by late evening and overnight. This front could bring a band of
enhanced frontogenesis and a period of snow as it moves northwest
to southeast across the area. Additionally, any wet roads from
early precip will be likely to freeze up with patches of ice
developing. Precip will come to an end across the area by Sunday
morning.

In the wake of this system temperatures will be much
cooler...colder than normal even...through the end of the
forecast. Northwest upper flow will remain overhead through the
period with occasional weak disturbances bringing rounds of weak
vertical motion but likely insufficient to produce any
precipitation so have kept the remainder of the forecast dry at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Only minor alterations to the forecast. Stratus field a bit
farther west than earlier guidance suggested and have trended MHK a
bit earlier and and TOP and FOE a bit later. Return to VFR looking
a touch quicker as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Shortwave over the central Rockies is now moving over the plains and
eventually into the longwave trough over the eastern US. There is
very limited moisture and lift with this system therefore expect dry
conditions as it tracks across KS. Ahead of the system a front
currently located over central KS will gradually shift eastward. The
deepest mixing today has occurred ahead of the front with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. In north central KS
cloud cover and shallow mixing along the front has kept temperatures
in the upper 50s. High level clouds have spread over the entire
area, which may limit any further warming beyond a few degrees. With
the deep mixing RH values have managed the mid to lower 20 percent
range. Winds in the same regions are gusting 25 to 35 mph causing
very high fire danger for the rest of the afternoon. As the front
sweeps across the area winds shift to the northwest and increase
especially after midnight when the shortwave exits the region. Wind
gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected to last through early
afternoon tomorrow. Cold air advection overnight will cause the
boundary layer to remain mixed and low temperatures to stay in the
mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler, and lower cloud
cover moves in from the north. High temperatures range from 45 to 50
degrees with the warmest temps over central KS where cloud cover may
be less than far northeast and eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper trough will be shifting slowly east across southern
California on Friday with southwesterly flow aloft streaming mid
and upper level moisture toward the Plains. A northern stream
trough will also be diving southeast out of Montana by Saturday
morning and taking aim on the Central Plains by late Saturday.

Friday will be seasonal with temperatures in the lower to middle
40s for highs, and somewhat limited by incoming cloud cover from
the southwest as moisture streams into the area. Temperatures will
fall into the lower 30s on Friday evening but should then remain
nearly steady or even rise a bit overnight as cloud cover and
south winds increase a bit. Lead short wave energy will approach
the area from the southwest after midnight, bringing enhanced lift
into central KS before sunrise. Dry air in the low levels should
preclude much precip from reaching the surface through sunrise,
but have included a slight chance in central KS.

During the day on Saturday, the initial lead short wave will move
across the area with a secondary piece of energy impacting the
area by later in the day. Should note here that model guidance has
been highly variable regarding precip Saturday into Saturday night
given that only minor fluctuations in timing of the SW and NW
systems will impact phasing and resultant precip. Current
indication is that the bulk of precip will be focused south of
I-70 where temperatures will also be a bit warmer, favoring more
of a rain event...but this is still subject to change.

The early waves should provide enough lift in conjunction with the
ample mid and upper moisture to saturate the column down and bring
rounds of precipitation. Temperature profiles are walking a very
fine line between rain and snow, and could see the precip type
fluctuate based on precipitation intensity and dendritic flake
size as the near-surface melting layer should remain with similar
temperatures through the day. Given the current expected profile,
have maintained the forecast for a rain or snow mix through the
day on Saturday and into the evening. Currently expect air and
ground temperatures to be warm enough to preclude any decent snow
accumulation, although there could be occasional slushy build-up
on the roads if any bands of moderate snow can develop. Warm
temperatures continue into the evening, but the system coming from
the northwest eventually brings a stout cold front into the area
by late evening and overnight. This front could bring a band of
enhanced frontogenesis and a period of snow as it moves northwest
to southeast across the area. Additionally, any wet roads from
early precip will be likely to freeze up with patches of ice
developing. Precip will come to an end across the area by Sunday
morning.

In the wake of this system temperatures will be much
cooler...colder than normal even...through the end of the
forecast. Northwest upper flow will remain overhead through the
period with occasional weak disturbances bringing rounds of weak
vertical motion but likely insufficient to produce any
precipitation so have kept the remainder of the forecast dry at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Initial boundary pushing through and diurnal trends brings winds
down to start, but reinforcing cold fronts causing veering and
increasing winds in the 03Z through 10Z periods. Hard to argue
much with previous timing of MVFR ceilings arriving with the
second front. When the ceilings diminish is uncertain, but went on
the conservative side at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Shortwave over the central Rockies is now moving over the plains and
eventually into the longwave trough over the eastern US. There is
very limited moisture and lift with this system therefore expect dry
conditions as it tracks across KS. Ahead of the system a front
currently located over central KS will gradually shift eastward. The
deepest mixing today has occurred ahead of the front with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. In north central KS
cloud cover and shallow mixing along the front has kept temperatures
in the upper 50s. High level clouds have spread over the entire
area, which may limit any further warming beyond a few degrees. With
the deep mixing RH values have managed the mid to lower 20 percent
range. Winds in the same regions are gusting 25 to 35 mph causing
very high fire danger for the rest of the afternoon. As the front
sweeps across the area winds shift to the northwest and increase
especially after midnight when the shortwave exits the region. Wind
gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected to last through early
afternoon tomorrow. Cold air advection overnight will cause the
boundary layer to remain mixed and low temperatures to stay in the
mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler, and lower cloud
cover moves in from the north. High temperatures range from 45 to 50
degrees with the warmest temps over central KS where cloud cover may
be less than far northeast and eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper trough will be shifting slowly east across southern
California on Friday with southwesterly flow aloft streaming mid
and upper level moisture toward the Plains. A northern stream
trough will also be diving southeast out of Montana by Saturday
morning and taking aim on the Central Plains by late Saturday.

Friday will be seasonal with temperatures in the lower to middle
40s for highs, and somewhat limited by incoming cloud cover from
the southwest as moisture streams into the area. Temperatures will
fall into the lower 30s on Friday evening but should then remain
nearly steady or even rise a bit overnight as cloud cover and
south winds increase a bit. Lead short wave energy will approach
the area from the southwest after midnight, bringing enhanced lift
into central KS before sunrise. Dry air in the low levels should
preclude much precip from reaching the surface through sunrise,
but have included a slight chance in central KS.

During the day on Saturday, the initial lead short wave will move
across the area with a secondary piece of energy impacting the
area by later in the day. Should note here that model guidance has
been highly variable regarding precip Saturday into Saturday night
given that only minor fluctuations in timing of the SW and NW
systems will impact phasing and resultant precip. Current
indication is that the bulk of precip will be focused south of
I-70 where temperatures will also be a bit warmer, favoring more
of a rain event...but this is still subject to change.

The early waves should provide enough lift in conjunction with the
ample mid and upper moisture to saturate the column down and bring
rounds of precipitation. Temperature profiles are walking a very
fine line between rain and snow, and could see the precip type
fluctuate based on precipitation intensity and dendritic flake
size as the near-surface melting layer should remain with similar
temperatures through the day. Given the current expected profile,
have maintained the forecast for a rain or snow mix through the
day on Saturday and into the evening. Currently expect air and
ground temperatures to be warm enough to preclude any decent snow
accumulation, although there could be occasional slushy build-up
on the roads if any bands of moderate snow can develop. Warm
temperatures continue into the evening, but the system coming from
the northwest eventually brings a stout cold front into the area
by late evening and overnight. This front could bring a band of
enhanced frontogenesis and a period of snow as it moves northwest
to southeast across the area. Additionally, any wet roads from
early precip will be likely to freeze up with patches of ice
developing. Precip will come to an end across the area by Sunday
morning.

In the wake of this system temperatures will be much
cooler...colder than normal even...through the end of the
forecast. Northwest upper flow will remain overhead through the
period with occasional weak disturbances bringing rounds of weak
vertical motion but likely insufficient to produce any
precipitation so have kept the remainder of the forecast dry at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Initial boundary pushing through and diurnal trends brings winds
down to start, but reinforcing cold fronts causing veering and
increasing winds in the 03Z through 10Z periods. Hard to argue
much with previous timing of MVFR ceilings arriving with the
second front. When the ceilings diminish is uncertain, but went on
the conservative side at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

Shortwave over the central Rockies is now moving over the plains and
eventually into the longwave trough over the eastern US. There is
very limited moisture and lift with this system therefore expect dry
conditions as it tracks across KS. Ahead of the system a front
currently located over central KS will gradually shift eastward. The
deepest mixing today has occurred ahead of the front with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. In north central KS
cloud cover and shallow mixing along the front has kept temperatures
in the upper 50s. High level clouds have spread over the entire
area, which may limit any further warming beyond a few degrees. With
the deep mixing RH values have managed the mid to lower 20 percent
range. Winds in the same regions are gusting 25 to 35 mph causing
very high fire danger for the rest of the afternoon. As the front
sweeps across the area winds shift to the northwest and increase
especially after midnight when the shortwave exits the region. Wind
gusts around 25 to 35 mph are expected to last through early
afternoon tomorrow. Cold air advection overnight will cause the
boundary layer to remain mixed and low temperatures to stay in the
mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow will be much cooler, and lower cloud
cover moves in from the north. High temperatures range from 45 to 50
degrees with the warmest temps over central KS where cloud cover may
be less than far northeast and eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

An upper trough will be shifting slowly east across southern
California on Friday with southwesterly flow aloft streaming mid
and upper level moisture toward the Plains. A northern stream
trough will also be diving southeast out of Montana by Saturday
morning and taking aim on the Central Plains by late Saturday.

Friday will be seasonal with temperatures in the lower to middle
40s for highs, and somewhat limited by incoming cloud cover from
the southwest as moisture streams into the area. Temperatures will
fall into the lower 30s on Friday evening but should then remain
nearly steady or even rise a bit overnight as cloud cover and
south winds increase a bit. Lead short wave energy will approach
the area from the southwest after midnight, bringing enhanced lift
into central KS before sunrise. Dry air in the low levels should
preclude much precip from reaching the surface through sunrise,
but have included a slight chance in central KS.

During the day on Saturday, the initial lead short wave will move
across the area with a secondary piece of energy impacting the
area by later in the day. Should note here that model guidance has
been highly variable regarding precip Saturday into Saturday night
given that only minor fluctuations in timing of the SW and NW
systems will impact phasing and resultant precip. Current
indication is that the bulk of precip will be focused south of
I-70 where temperatures will also be a bit warmer, favoring more
of a rain event...but this is still subject to change.

The early waves should provide enough lift in conjunction with the
ample mid and upper moisture to saturate the column down and bring
rounds of precipitation. Temperature profiles are walking a very
fine line between rain and snow, and could see the precip type
fluctuate based on precipitation intensity and dendritic flake
size as the near-surface melting layer should remain with similar
temperatures through the day. Given the current expected profile,
have maintained the forecast for a rain or snow mix through the
day on Saturday and into the evening. Currently expect air and
ground temperatures to be warm enough to preclude any decent snow
accumulation, although there could be occasional slushy build-up
on the roads if any bands of moderate snow can develop. Warm
temperatures continue into the evening, but the system coming from
the northwest eventually brings a stout cold front into the area
by late evening and overnight. This front could bring a band of
enhanced frontogenesis and a period of snow as it moves northwest
to southeast across the area. Additionally, any wet roads from
early precip will be likely to freeze up with patches of ice
developing. Precip will come to an end across the area by Sunday
morning.

In the wake of this system temperatures will be much
cooler...colder than normal even...through the end of the
forecast. Northwest upper flow will remain overhead through the
period with occasional weak disturbances bringing rounds of weak
vertical motion but likely insufficient to produce any
precipitation so have kept the remainder of the forecast dry at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Later tonight a
cold front will move through the area causing an increase and
shift of the winds to the northwest. MVFR ceilings will also move
in behind the front. Timing may need adjusting, but there are
indications these clouds persist until around the end of the taf
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the CWA Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the CWA Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Later tonight a
cold front will move through the area causing an increase and
shift of the winds to the northwest. MVFR ceilings will also move
in behind the front. Timing may need adjusting, but there are
indications these clouds persist until around the end of the taf
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 281720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the CWA Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the CWA Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through the evening hours. Later tonight a
cold front will move through the area causing an increase and
shift of the winds to the northwest. MVFR ceilings will also move
in behind the front. Timing may need adjusting, but there are
indications these clouds persist until around the end of the taf
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the CWA Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the CWA Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 445 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR conditions are anticipated through this evening due to a dry
airmass in place with no deep moisture advection as a shortwave
moves overhead. Winds will be gusty ahead of and behind a surface
trough. Also the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS show some
stratocu moving into northeast KS late in the period. Because of
this have introduced some CIGS between 2 and 3 KFT. Its possible
the CIGS could come in above 3 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280944
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the cwa Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the cwa Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions continue to be anticipated. Near-surface winds are
veering quickly to around 3000ft AGL but speeds continue to be a
bit weak and veering too gradual for LLWS. Winds remain to be the
main forecast challenge with direction veering from SE to NW
through the period in response to two cold fronts passing.
Specifics on the more significant shifts is not high and some
adjustments are likely. Could see some stratus near limiting
ranges at the very end of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280944
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the cwa Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the cwa Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions continue to be anticipated. Near-surface winds are
veering quickly to around 3000ft AGL but speeds continue to be a
bit weak and veering too gradual for LLWS. Winds remain to be the
main forecast challenge with direction veering from SE to NW
through the period in response to two cold fronts passing.
Specifics on the more significant shifts is not high and some
adjustments are likely. Could see some stratus near limiting
ranges at the very end of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 280944
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the cwa Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the cwa Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions continue to be anticipated. Near-surface winds are
veering quickly to around 3000ft AGL but speeds continue to be a
bit weak and veering too gradual for LLWS. Winds remain to be the
main forecast challenge with direction veering from SE to NW
through the period in response to two cold fronts passing.
Specifics on the more significant shifts is not high and some
adjustments are likely. Could see some stratus near limiting
ranges at the very end of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280944
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

09Z water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging along the Great
Plains. There are a couple shortwaves upstream of the ridge, one
over northern UT and southern ID with the second over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, observations show a broad area of low
pressure elongated north to south through the plains. Dewpoints show
a modest increase over the southern plains, but the higher values
appear to be staying over the gulf.

For today and tonight, models show mid levels of the atmosphere
remaining to dry for any precip. This seems to make some sense with
925MB and 850MB profiler data showing winds from the southwest,
which are progged to remain this way through the day. Nevertheless
models pick up an a decent PV anomaly moving over northeast KS this
evening as the shortwave over the Rockies moves out across the
plains. Given that there should not be much in the way of deep
moisture advection ahead of this system, have left the forecast dry.
Although the strength of the PV anomaly suggests the chances for
sprinkles is not zero. As for highs today, the models show the low
level thermal ridge moving into eastern KS this afternoon. The GFS
forecast soundings have done a better job in this semi-arid airmass
we`ve been in for the last several days. So mixing the boundary
layer to almost 850MB continues to support highs in the lower 70s
across east central and northeast KS. The tricky part will be how
much mixing will occur across north central KS as the trough axis
move in this afternoon. With reasonable sunshine filtered by some
high clouds, think highs across north central KS are still likely to
be in the upper 60s. Cold air advection and surface wind speeds
increase behind the front overnight. Models have trended stronger
with the surface pressure gradient showing pressure rises on the
order of 4 to 7 MB in 3 hr into north central KS. This would likely
cause northwesterly winds to gust to near 30 MPH towards daybreak.
With a well mixed boundary layer, lows are expected to only fall
into the mid and upper 30s. The NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS)
shows the possibility for some stratocu to move into northeast KS
within the cold air advection. With this in mind have increased
cloud cover for the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

As tonight`s shortwave trough exits to the east on
Thursday...gusty north to northwest winds in the morning will
usher in colder air through the midday hours before decreasing in
the afternoon. Highs should top out in the mid 40s under mostly
sunny skies all areas by midday. With the combination of drier air
in place...clear skies and light winds...have lowered low temps
Thursday night into the upper teens and lower 20s. Although warm
advection aloft will begin to develop/increase through the day on
Friday...the cold start to the day and increasing afternoon clouds
may be on offsetting factor...so have kept highs in the low to
middle 40s.

By Friday night...the combination of the exiting high pressure
center to the east and strengthening leeside trough in the high
plains should increase low and mid level warm air and moisture
advection across the region overnight and into the day Saturday.
While the atmosphere will initially be quite dry west to east across
the cwa Friday evening...moisture and warm air advection will start
to saturate through a deep layer overnight. Expect a slight chance
for precip over the north central in the evening...with a chance all
areas overnight. Forecast soundings overnight Friday have trended
warmer from yesterday and while dewpoints on Friday will be in the
teens and lower 20s to start the day...readings may rise to near 30
degrees in the north central by sunrise Saturday. Although not
strong...the warm air advection will persist through the day
Saturday. Therefore...expect rain at this point to be the main
weather element...although with low freeze levels continuing through
the day...certainly cannot rule out some snow mixing in at times.
Models are not in total agreement on the timing of the approaching
upper trough from the high plains...but all do increase lift
substantially across the cwa Saturday afternoon and night as the
cold front plunges into the area. Have increases pops to likely all
areas and transitioned precip type to mainly snow northwest to
southeast Saturday night. All in all...Saturday looks like a
cool...cloudy and wet day across the area with highs in the upper
30s/near 40...then a colder and blustery day Sunday with decreasing
chances for early day light snow west to east. Still expect at least
some light snow accumulations across the area Saturday night...but
amounts will depend highly on how quickly the colder air arrives
before precipitation tapers through the night and early Sunday.
Again...models differ significantly on this with the GFS the slowest
and the EC the faster exit of the system. For now...have trended
more with the GEM which is in between and fairly consistent with
past runs.

Models are in good agreement on the stronger push of cold air into
the area Sunday and Monday with highs mainly in the 20s and lows
Sunday night in the single digits. Weak warm air advection ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the plains by Tuesday should
help to moderate highs back into the 30s. Confidence on additional
snow chances with this system is low at this time...so have left
forecast dry for now through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions continue to be anticipated. Near-surface winds are
veering quickly to around 3000ft AGL but speeds continue to be a
bit weak and veering too gradual for LLWS. Winds remain to be the
main forecast challenge with direction veering from SE to NW
through the period in response to two cold fronts passing.
Specifics on the more significant shifts is not high and some
adjustments are likely. Could see some stratus near limiting
ranges at the very end of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 280534
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Water vapor imagery showed a deep, broad mid-level trough stretched
across the eastern half of the U.S. with a mid-level ridge building
along the Rockies. This ridge will continue to slide eastward across
the Central Plains tonight into Wednesday morning before the next
shortwave, which was noted over British Columbia this afternoon,
dives into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday afternoon. At
the surface, low pressure was situated over the central High Plains,
resulting in a southerly flow across the forecast area today. These
southerly winds combined with sunny skies led to temperatures this
afternoon rising into the 60s and even around 70 degrees in central
Kansas. As the approaching shortwave advances toward the northern
Rockies overnight, it will help to shift the area of surface low
pressure a bit further eastward into the forecast area and cause the
pressure gradient to increase some overnight. As a result, expect
5-10mph south-southwesterly winds to keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer with lows in the mid/upper 30s.

The shortwave will deepen across the northern High Plains and into
the Central Plains through the day on Wednesday, causing the area of
surface low pressure to continue shifting eastward over the area. An
associated cold front is expected to track into north central Kansas
by late morning and move out of the forecast area by early to mid
evening. Model soundings show a very dry atmosphere in place though
with only a few high clouds expected to develop with the frontal
passage so have a dry forecast going for Wednesday. Winds look to be
slow to veer behind the frontal passage with southerly winds
expected to only shift to the west by the afternoon. As a result, do
not anticipate this frontal passage being much of a limiting factor
for how high temperatures will get Wednesday afternoon.  Ahead of
this boundary, models show a decent thermal ridge passing over the
forecast area with 850mb temperatures of at least 12C to 14C. With a
fairly unidirectional wind profile and winds expected to gust
upwards of 20-30mph across northeast and east central Kansas, decent
mixing should occur through the day and have continued to trend
warmer for temperatures with highs in the middle/upper 60s north to
low 70s south. These breezy winds combined with dry conditions will
result in areas of very high fire danger across portions of north
central and east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Wednesday Night, an upper level trough will dig southeast across the
northern plains into the mid MS river valley and Great Lakes States.
There may be enough ascent ahead of this upper level trough for some
scattered sprinkles across the CWA during the evening hours. A stronger
surface cold front will move through the area early Thursday
morning. Overnight lows will occur between 12Z and 14Z Thursday with
mid to upper 30s.

Thursday through Friday, an upper level trough across the eastern US
will amplify, this will cause a surface ridge to build southward
across the southern plains. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
in the lower to mid 40s and overnight lows in the 20s.

Friday night, An upper level trough across the southwestern US will
begin to phase with a northern stream trough moving east-southeast across the
northern and central high plains. Moisture advection and stronger
ascent ahead of the H5 trough will cause light snow possibly mixed
with rain or freezing rain to shift northeast across the CWA after
midnight. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 20s, thus
wet bulb cooling should allow temperatures to drop into the upper
20s and lower 30s once the precipitation begins. The ECMWF shows
more of a warm nose between 950mb and 850mb across east central KS,
thus the precip may be in the form of light freezing rain through
the morning hours of Saturday. The vertical temperature profile look
cold enough for snow across north central KS, though amounts look to
be light with under an inch of accumulations.

Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF show mid 30 degree dewpoints
advecting northward across the CWA. The Boundary layer temperatures
will probably warm into the mid 30s to around 40 degrees thus, most
areas may change over to light rain. North central KS may keep a
rain and snow mix. Given that temperatures are forecasted to reach
the mid 30s to around 40 there should not be much in the way of
travel problems from the late morning hours of Saturday through the
afternoon hours.

Saturday Night, The GFS and ECMWF model solutions begin to diverge.
The ECMWF has a much more amplified upper trough moving east across
the southern and central plains as the northern branch H5 trough
phases with upper low across far west TX. Strong low-level CAA will
bring colder air southward across the CWA during the evening hours
of Saturday changing the rain and rain mixed with snow over to snow.
Stronger frontogenetical forcing will occur ahead of the H5 trough
across much of eastern KS causing for widespread snow. If the ECMWF
were to verify, several inches of snow will be possible. Most areas
could see 2-4 inches of snowfall Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. The GFS solution is less amplified without the phasing
occuring between the northern branch H5 trough and the upper low
over northeast Mexico. The GFS shows much weaker low-level CAA
Saturday night, thus the rain and rain and snow mixture may last
through much of the night before changing over to snow before ending
by 12Z SUN. If the GFS solution were to verify we may see a dusting
up to an inch of snowfall late Saturday night. The GEM model
solution is closer to the GFS solution.

Sunday through Monday, The upper level trough digging east-southeast
across the plains will amplify across the eastern US. Expect colder
weather Sunday and Monday as a surface ridge of high pressure builds
southward across the southern plains. Highs will only reach the mid
20s to lower 30s. overnight lows will be in the teens.

Tuesday, the upper flow will become zonal as the surface ridge
across the southern plains shifts east into the TN valley. Southerly
winds will help to warm highs into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions continue to be anticipated. Near-surface winds are
veering quickly to around 3000ft AGL but speeds continue to be a
bit weak and veering too gradual for LLWS. Winds remain to be the
main forecast challenge with direction veering from SE to NW
through the period in response to two cold fronts passing.
Specifics on the more significant shifts is not high and some
adjustments are likely. Could see some stratus near limiting
ranges at the very end of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65








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