Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KTOP 211134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions should dominate. SSW winds with some gusts already
occurring with the low level jet and little change anticipated
through 0Z. Will likely have some decreases around then and could
see gusts return as the jet returns after 02Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Records for highest minimum temperature for today, August 21...

Topeka...79, set in 2003.
Concordia...78, set in 1947, 1959, and 1987.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 211134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions should dominate. SSW winds with some gusts already
occurring with the low level jet and little change anticipated
through 0Z. Will likely have some decreases around then and could
see gusts return as the jet returns after 02Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Records for highest minimum temperature for today, August 21...

Topeka...79, set in 2003.
Concordia...78, set in 1947, 1959, and 1987.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability
overnight with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. Convection has persisted across
southern NEB on the nose of the low level jet while additional
activity to the south appears to be falling apart. Therefore will
continue with a dry forecast. Chances for wind shear continue to
be small as sfc winds have remained up this evening indicative of
continued mixing. RAP and NAM soundings show only a modest nocturnal
inversion that is not very steep and models prog a decent pressure
gradient persisting through the night. Because of this I do not
expect the boundary layer to become completely decoupled.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 210819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability
overnight with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. Convection has persisted across
southern NEB on the nose of the low level jet while additional
activity to the south appears to be falling apart. Therefore will
continue with a dry forecast. Chances for wind shear continue to
be small as sfc winds have remained up this evening indicative of
continued mixing. RAP and NAM soundings show only a modest nocturnal
inversion that is not very steep and models prog a decent pressure
gradient persisting through the night. Because of this I do not
expect the boundary layer to become completely decoupled.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210420
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850MB temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability
overnight with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. Convection has persisted across
southern NEB on the nose of the low level jet while additional
activity to the south appears to be falling apart. Therefore will
continue with a dry forecast. Chances for wind shear continue to
be small as sfc winds have remained up this evening indicative of
continued mixing. RAP and NAM soundings show only a modest nocturnal
inversion that is not very steep and models prog a decent pressure
gradient persisting through the night. Because of this I do not
expect the boundary layer to become completely decoupled.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210420
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850MB temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability
overnight with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. Convection has persisted across
southern NEB on the nose of the low level jet while additional
activity to the south appears to be falling apart. Therefore will
continue with a dry forecast. Chances for wind shear continue to
be small as sfc winds have remained up this evening indicative of
continued mixing. RAP and NAM soundings show only a modest nocturnal
inversion that is not very steep and models prog a decent pressure
gradient persisting through the night. Because of this I do not
expect the boundary layer to become completely decoupled.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 202258
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850MB temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability this
evening with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. However will keep an eye on the
convection off the higher terrain to the west and see if it is able
to hold together once the boundary layer begins to cool. As for
wind shear, think chances are to small to keep the mention of LLWS
at TOP. RAP and NAM soundings are not as strong with the nocturnal
inversion as the indicated last night and models prog a decent
pressure gradient persisting through the night helping to keep the
boundary layer from completely decoupling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 202258
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850MB temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Organized convection appears to be a pretty low probability this
evening with models showing the nose of the low level jet mainly
north and east of the terminals. However will keep an eye on the
convection off the higher terrain to the west and see if it is able
to hold together once the boundary layer begins to cool. As for
wind shear, think chances are to small to keep the mention of LLWS
at TOP. RAP and NAM soundings are not as strong with the nocturnal
inversion as the indicated last night and models prog a decent
pressure gradient persisting through the night helping to keep the
boundary layer from completely decoupling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 202034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850mb temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period. LLWS
is only expected at TOP tonight where the winds are expected to
decouple and be lighter than MHK and FOE. Winds will veer slightly
throughout the period from S to SW.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 202034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A broad upper level ridge axis will continue to amplify across the
lower and mid MS river valley over the next 24 hours.

A minor upper level trough was located across northeast OK and
southeast KS this afternoon, on the western edge of the H5 ridge
axis, and will move northeast across southeast KS into western MO
this afternoon through early this evening. A shower did pop up
across southern Coffey county but did dissipate. This minor H5
trough may provide just enough lift for an isolated shower or
thunderstorms along and southeast of I-35 through the late afternoon
and early evening hours. I will keep POPS at 14 percent due to the
very isolated coverage.

During the evening hours scattered thunderstorms will develop across
western KS and eastern CO. Most of the thunderstorms will lift
northeast into NE but the trailing edge of any thunderstorm complex
may move across portions of north central and northeast KS late
Tonight and through the mid morning hours of Thursday. At this time
any thunderstorm complex that develops across western KS Tonight
should be decaying through the early morning hours of Thursday, thus
the thunderstorms will not be severe as they move northeast into a
less favorable environment across northeast KS.

Thursday will be mostly sunny as the H5 ridge axis amplifies across
the southern and mid MS river valley. Thunderstorms should remain
well west and north of the CWA during the daylight hours. Highs will
warm into the mid to upper 90s once again. A few locations across
the southwestern counties of the CWA may reach the 100 degree mark.
Heat indices will warm into the 100 to 104 degree range during the
afternoon hours. Some isolated areas across east central KS may see
heat indices reach around 105 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

The mid-level flow will remain fairly unchanged through the end of
the week into the weekend with a broad ridge remaining in place
across much of the central and eastern U.S. and a trough positioned
over the western U.S. Thursday night through Saturday the models are
in good agreement with the mid-level trough currently over the
Pacific Northwest digging southward along the western Rockies with
the ridge amplifying further northward toward the Great Lakes
region. This pattern will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the
region, which will continue to support warm air advection through
the end of the week and into the weekend with 850mb temperatures
reaching into the 23C-26C degree range. Hot and humid conditions are
expected during that period as temperatures become unseasonably warm
with highs reaching into the middle to upper 90s Friday and
Saturday. These high temperatures combined with dewpoints reaching
into the mid 60s to low 70s will result in afternoon heat indices
soaring into the 100F to 104F degree range Friday and near 100F
degrees on Saturday. We will continue to monitor these conditions
closely to see if a heat advisory is needed for Friday. During this
period, surface low pressure will become anchored across much of
the Northern and Central Plains with a fairly stationary front
situated near north central Kansas. There doesn`t appear to be much
in the way of forcing along this boundary, however there may be
scattered chances for precipitation from late week through the early
weekend, especially across north central and northern Kansas. At
this time, the better chances for precipitation look to be during
the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet increases over
the region.

Saturday night and Sunday, models show a strong embedded shortwave
trough lifting northeastward across the northern Rockies and into
the Northern Plains. This advancing shortwave should be enough to
slowly push the stationary front eastward through the region Sunday
night and Monday, so have more widespread chance PoPs during that
period. This cold front may lift back northward across the area as a
warm front, however there is model uncertainty with regards to how
far north this warm front will lift, so confidence is low with
precipitation chances Monday night through Wednesday. At this time
have slight to low-end chance PoPs through that period.

The frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will cause winds to
shift to the north, providing a bit of relief to the heat with highs
dropping into the middle 80s to low 90s Monday. Temperatures are
more uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday depending upon where the
warm front is located and whether or not the region is situated
within the warm sector, so have highs remaining in the upper 80s to
low 90s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period. LLWS
is only expected at TOP tonight where the winds are expected to
decouple and be lighter than MHK and FOE. Winds will veer slightly
throughout the period from S to SW.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Large-scale pattern over the Plains becoming more of a dirty ridge
regime with at to somewhat above normal precipitable water levels
across the bulk of the CONUS. Main troughs were over western North
America and the Great Lakes, with a minor upper wave in east central
Texas and 0Z observations showing a mid level trough over west
Texas. Since last night at this time, warm air advection and deep
moisture convergence has shifted northeast into Iowa where overnight
convection has erupted.

The Texas waves should be weakening with time with rather warm
column leading to limited saturation despite modestly above normal
PWs. Mid afternoon to evening hours exhibit little convective
inhibition but hard to think anything more than isolated storms
could result given limited forcing. Lower thermal fields showing
overall little change from Tuesday, with even minor cooling
suggested in some areas. Better mixing in the tighter surface
gradient and mixing of the 30-40kt low level jet should more than
offset any high cloud for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s again
with heat index values a few degrees higher yet. A slightly stronger
low level develops tonight, and with another day of heat today
expect temps to only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday and Friday the heat continues across the forecast area as
upper ridge slowly builds northward toward the upper Midwest.
850mb temps of 24-26c nose eastward out of the high plains into
eastern Kansas which brings surface temperatures well into the
upper 90s across most of the area. Longwave upper trof continues
to move eastward into the northern Rockies, with shortwave trof
moving into the upper Midwest late Thursday. Will keep low end
pops across the KS NE border where trailing front and nocturnal
llj may bring convection that far south although chances are
better farther north. Similar scenario plays out again in the
overnight hours Friday night.

Subtle differences in the larger scale pattern influence the
forecast through the weekend. EC is more pronounced with the
upper ridge into eastern Kansas, while the GFS flattens the ridge
more as energy moves out of the upper trof into the northern
Plains. How far east clouds and rain chances can extend east and
south will impact sensible weather through the weekend. Started
to bring rain chances farther east and south by Sunday, which leans
towards the GFS, but the strength of the ridge could certainly end
up toward a warmer drier EC solution on Sunday. North central
counties have better chances than farther east in this transition
period. Hopefully by Monday into Tuesday the longwave trof will
have made enough eastward progress to bring better rain chances
and a cooling trend in temperatures to our area. Worth noting
that both EC and GFS have a tropical system moving off the Mexico
coast by the end of the forecast period, which would likely
influence moisture transport into the longwave trof to its north
and could help rain chances for the forecast area. Have a slow
cooling in high temperatures from 90s on Saturday to low/middle
90s Sunday and back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
Increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows
still on the warm side with 70s over the weekend to upper 60s by
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period. LLWS
is only expected at TOP tonight where the winds are expected to
decouple and be lighter than MHK and FOE. Winds will veer slightly
throughout the period from S to SW.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 201137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Large-scale pattern over the Plains becoming more of a dirty ridge
regime with at to somewhat above normal precipitable water levels
across the bulk of the CONUS. Main troughs were over western North
America and the Great Lakes, with a minor upper wave in east central
Texas and 0Z observations showing a mid level trough over west
Texas. Since last night at this time, warm air advection and deep
moisture convergence has shifted northeast into Iowa where overnight
convection has erupted.

The Texas waves should be weakening with time with rather warm
column leading to limited saturation despite modestly above normal
PWs. Mid afternoon to evening hours exhibit little convective
inhibition but hard to think anything more than isolated storms
could result given limited forcing. Lower thermal fields showing
overall little change from Tuesday, with even minor cooling
suggested in some areas. Better mixing in the tighter surface
gradient and mixing of the 30-40kt low level jet should more than
offset any high cloud for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s again
with heat index values a few degrees higher yet. A slightly stronger
low level develops tonight, and with another day of heat today
expect temps to only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday and Friday the heat continues across the forecast area as
upper ridge slowly builds northward toward the upper Midwest.
850mb temps of 24-26c nose eastward out of the high plains into
eastern Kansas which brings surface temperatures well into the
upper 90s across most of the area. Longwave upper trof continues
to move eastward into the northern Rockies, with shortwave trof
moving into the upper Midwest late Thursday. Will keep low end
pops across the KS NE border where trailing front and nocturnal
llj may bring convection that far south although chances are
better farther north. Similar scenario plays out again in the
overnight hours Friday night.

Subtle differences in the larger scale pattern influence the
forecast through the weekend. EC is more pronounced with the
upper ridge into eastern Kansas, while the GFS flattens the ridge
more as energy moves out of the upper trof into the northern
Plains. How far east clouds and rain chances can extend east and
south will impact sensible weather through the weekend. Started
to bring rain chances farther east and south by Sunday, which leans
towards the GFS, but the strength of the ridge could certainly end
up toward a warmer drier EC solution on Sunday. North central
counties have better chances than farther east in this transition
period. Hopefully by Monday into Tuesday the longwave trof will
have made enough eastward progress to bring better rain chances
and a cooling trend in temperatures to our area. Worth noting
that both EC and GFS have a tropical system moving off the Mexico
coast by the end of the forecast period, which would likely
influence moisture transport into the longwave trof to its north
and could help rain chances for the forecast area. Have a slow
cooling in high temperatures from 90s on Saturday to low/middle
90s Sunday and back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
Increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows
still on the warm side with 70s over the weekend to upper 60s by
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR conditions to continue. Will keep LLWS going for a few more
hours and could see redevelopment late tonight, though mixing
looks stronger tonight than in current hours. Some gusts still
likely through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Large-scale pattern over the Plains becoming more of a dirty ridge
regime with at to somewhat above normal precipitable water levels
across the bulk of the CONUS. Main troughs were over western North
America and the Great Lakes, with a minor upper wave in east central
Texas and 0Z observations showing a mid level trough over west
Texas. Since last night at this time, warm air advection and deep
moisture convergence has shifted northeast into Iowa where overnight
convection has erupted.

The Texas waves should be weakening with time with rather warm
column leading to limited saturation despite modestly above normal
PWs. Mid afternoon to evening hours exhibit little convective
inhibition but hard to think anything more than isolated storms
could result given limited forcing. Lower thermal fields showing
overall little change from Tuesday, with even minor cooling
suggested in some areas. Better mixing in the tighter surface
gradient and mixing of the 30-40kt low level jet should more than
offset any high cloud for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s again
with heat index values a few degrees higher yet. A slightly stronger
low level develops tonight, and with another day of heat today
expect temps to only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday and Friday the heat continues across the forecast area as
upper ridge slowly builds northward toward the upper Midwest.
850mb temps of 24-26c nose eastward out of the high plains into
eastern Kansas which brings surface temperatures well into the
upper 90s across most of the area. Longwave upper trof continues
to move eastward into the northern Rockies, with shortwave trof
moving into the upper Midwest late Thursday. Will keep low end
pops across the KS NE border where trailing front and nocturnal
llj may bring convection that far south although chances are
better farther north. Similar scenario plays out again in the
overnight hours Friday night.

Subtle differences in the larger scale pattern influence the
forecast through the weekend. EC is more pronounced with the
upper ridge into eastern Kansas, while the GFS flattens the ridge
more as energy moves out of the upper trof into the northern
Plains. How far east clouds and rain chances can extend east and
south will impact sensible weather through the weekend. Started
to bring rain chances farther east and south by Sunday, which leans
towards the GFS, but the strength of the ridge could certainly end
up toward a warmer drier EC solution on Sunday. North central
counties have better chances than farther east in this transition
period. Hopefully by Monday into Tuesday the longwave trof will
have made enough eastward progress to bring better rain chances
and a cooling trend in temperatures to our area. Worth noting
that both EC and GFS have a tropical system moving off the Mexico
coast by the end of the forecast period, which would likely
influence moisture transport into the longwave trof to its north
and could help rain chances for the forecast area. Have a slow
cooling in high temperatures from 90s on Saturday to low/middle
90s Sunday and back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
Increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows
still on the warm side with 70s over the weekend to upper 60s by
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR conditions to continue. Will keep LLWS going for a few more
hours and could see redevelopment late tonight, though mixing
looks stronger tonight than in current hours. Some gusts still
likely through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Large-scale pattern over the Plains becoming more of a dirty ridge
regime with at to somewhat above normal precipitable water levels
across the bulk of the CONUS. Main troughs were over western North
America and the Great Lakes, with a minor upper wave in east central
Texas and 0Z observations showing a mid level trough over west
Texas. Since last night at this time, warm air advection and deep
moisture convergence has shifted northeast into Iowa where overnight
convection has erupted.

The Texas waves should be weakening with time with rather warm
column leading to limited saturation despite modestly above normal
PWs. Mid afternoon to evening hours exhibit little convective
inhibition but hard to think anything more than isolated storms
could result given limited forcing. Lower thermal fields showing
overall little change from Tuesday, with even minor cooling
suggested in some areas. Better mixing in the tighter surface
gradient and mixing of the 30-40kt low level jet should more than
offset any high cloud for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s again
with heat index values a few degrees higher yet. A slightly stronger
low level develops tonight, and with another day of heat today
expect temps to only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday and Friday the heat continues across the forecast area as
upper ridge slowly builds northward toward the upper Midwest.
850mb temps of 24-26c nose eastward out of the high plains into
eastern Kansas which brings surface temperatures well into the
upper 90s across most of the area. Longwave upper trof continues
to move eastward into the northern Rockies, with shortwave trof
moving into the upper Midwest late Thursday. Will keep low end
pops across the KS NE border where trailing front and nocturnal
llj may bring convection that far south although chances are
better farther north. Similar scenario plays out again in the
overnight hours Friday night.

Subtle differences in the larger scale pattern influence the
forecast through the weekend. EC is more pronounced with the
upper ridge into eastern Kansas, while the GFS flattens the ridge
more as energy moves out of the upper trof into the northern
Plains. How far east clouds and rain chances can extend east and
south will impact sensible weather through the weekend. Started
to bring rain chances farther east and south by Sunday, which leans
towards the GFS, but the strength of the ridge could certainly end
up toward a warmer drier EC solution on Sunday. North central
counties have better chances than farther east in this transition
period. Hopefully by Monday into Tuesday the longwave trof will
have made enough eastward progress to bring better rain chances
and a cooling trend in temperatures to our area. Worth noting
that both EC and GFS have a tropical system moving off the Mexico
coast by the end of the forecast period, which would likely
influence moisture transport into the longwave trof to its north
and could help rain chances for the forecast area. Have a slow
cooling in high temperatures from 90s on Saturday to low/middle
90s Sunday and back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
Increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows
still on the warm side with 70s over the weekend to upper 60s by
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Models continue to depict the best convergence on the nose of the
low level jet to stay just north and east of the forecast area.
Therefore will maintain a VFR forecast. RAP and NAM forecast
soundings continue to support the possibility for some LLWS and
profiler data is starting to show the winds at 925MB strengthen.
So will maintain the mention of wind shear. Additionally the RAP
and NAM show a decent pressure gradient developing by Wednesday
afternoon with dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and good
mixing. Because of thin think south winds will become gusty by the
afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Large-scale pattern over the Plains becoming more of a dirty ridge
regime with at to somewhat above normal precipitable water levels
across the bulk of the CONUS. Main troughs were over western North
America and the Great Lakes, with a minor upper wave in east central
Texas and 0Z observations showing a mid level trough over west
Texas. Since last night at this time, warm air advection and deep
moisture convergence has shifted northeast into Iowa where overnight
convection has erupted.

The Texas waves should be weakening with time with rather warm
column leading to limited saturation despite modestly above normal
PWs. Mid afternoon to evening hours exhibit little convective
inhibition but hard to think anything more than isolated storms
could result given limited forcing. Lower thermal fields showing
overall little change from Tuesday, with even minor cooling
suggested in some areas. Better mixing in the tighter surface
gradient and mixing of the 30-40kt low level jet should more than
offset any high cloud for highs to reach the mid to upper 90s again
with heat index values a few degrees higher yet. A slightly stronger
low level develops tonight, and with another day of heat today
expect temps to only fall into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday and Friday the heat continues across the forecast area as
upper ridge slowly builds northward toward the upper Midwest.
850mb temps of 24-26c nose eastward out of the high plains into
eastern Kansas which brings surface temperatures well into the
upper 90s across most of the area. Longwave upper trof continues
to move eastward into the northern Rockies, with shortwave trof
moving into the upper Midwest late Thursday. Will keep low end
pops across the KS NE border where trailing front and nocturnal
llj may bring convection that far south although chances are
better farther north. Similar scenario plays out again in the
overnight hours Friday night.

Subtle differences in the larger scale pattern influence the
forecast through the weekend. EC is more pronounced with the
upper ridge into eastern Kansas, while the GFS flattens the ridge
more as energy moves out of the upper trof into the northern
Plains. How far east clouds and rain chances can extend east and
south will impact sensible weather through the weekend. Started
to bring rain chances farther east and south by Sunday, which leans
towards the GFS, but the strength of the ridge could certainly end
up toward a warmer drier EC solution on Sunday. North central
counties have better chances than farther east in this transition
period. Hopefully by Monday into Tuesday the longwave trof will
have made enough eastward progress to bring better rain chances
and a cooling trend in temperatures to our area. Worth noting
that both EC and GFS have a tropical system moving off the Mexico
coast by the end of the forecast period, which would likely
influence moisture transport into the longwave trof to its north
and could help rain chances for the forecast area. Have a slow
cooling in high temperatures from 90s on Saturday to low/middle
90s Sunday and back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday.
Increasing rain chances by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows
still on the warm side with 70s over the weekend to upper 60s by
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Models continue to depict the best convergence on the nose of the
low level jet to stay just north and east of the forecast area.
Therefore will maintain a VFR forecast. RAP and NAM forecast
soundings continue to support the possibility for some LLWS and
profiler data is starting to show the winds at 925MB strengthen.
So will maintain the mention of wind shear. Additionally the RAP
and NAM show a decent pressure gradient developing by Wednesday
afternoon with dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and good
mixing. Because of thin think south winds will become gusty by the
afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200436
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite forecast
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry forecast through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
CWA. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the CWA Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the CWA.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the CWA dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the CWA Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the CWA by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Models continue to depict the best convergence on the nose of the
low level jet to stay just north and east of the forecast area.
Therefore will maintain a VFR forecast. RAP and NAM forecast
soundings continue to support the possibility for some LLWS and
profiler data is starting to show the winds at 925MB strengthen.
So will maintain the mention of wind shear. Additionally the RAP
and NAM show a decent pressure gradient developing by Wednesday
afternoon with dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and good
mixing. Because of thin think south winds will become gusty by the
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 200436
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite forecast
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry forecast through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
CWA. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the CWA Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the CWA.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the CWA dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the CWA Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the CWA by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Models continue to depict the best convergence on the nose of the
low level jet to stay just north and east of the forecast area.
Therefore will maintain a VFR forecast. RAP and NAM forecast
soundings continue to support the possibility for some LLWS and
profiler data is starting to show the winds at 925MB strengthen.
So will maintain the mention of wind shear. Additionally the RAP
and NAM show a decent pressure gradient developing by Wednesday
afternoon with dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and good
mixing. Because of thin think south winds will become gusty by the
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192307
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite forecast
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry forecast through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
CWA. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the CWA Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the CWA.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the CWA dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the CWA Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the CWA by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Aside from the RAP that brings some nocturnal convection into
northern KS, most other guidance keeps the storms north of the
state line. With isentropic surfaces showing the better
convergence from the low level jet remaining north of the
terminals, will continue with a VFR forecast. Both the RAP and NAM
show a nocturnal inversion developing with 30 to 40 KTS just above
the boundary layer. There are mixed signals as to the strength of
the inversion and the impact of the low level jet, however felt
there was enough evidence for possible LLWS to include it in the
forecast overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192307
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite forecast
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry forecast through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
CWA. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the CWA Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the CWA.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the CWA dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the CWA Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the CWA by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Aside from the RAP that brings some nocturnal convection into
northern KS, most other guidance keeps the storms north of the
state line. With isentropic surfaces showing the better
convergence from the low level jet remaining north of the
terminals, will continue with a VFR forecast. Both the RAP and NAM
show a nocturnal inversion developing with 30 to 40 KTS just above
the boundary layer. There are mixed signals as to the strength of
the inversion and the impact of the low level jet, however felt
there was enough evidence for possible LLWS to include it in the
forecast overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 192044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite fcst
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry fcst through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
cwa. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the cwa Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the cwa.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the cwa dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the cwa Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the cwa by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The
low-level jet will increase to 40 KTS 1500 feet above the surface
which will produce moderate low-level wind shear at the terminals
between 9Z and 14Z WED.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan/Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

An upper level trough was moving east across the upper Midwest and
mid MS river valley late this afternoon. An upper level ridge across
NM and CO will build east across the plains tonight and east into
the lower and mid MS river valley by late Wednesday afternoon.

Any convective complexes that form across the central and northern
high plains this evening should move well north of the CWA tonight.
Isentropic lift will cause elevated storms to form across southeast
SD and eastern NE but these storms will move east into IA.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and warm as the upper level ridge
axis moves east across the state of KS. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 90s, with highs of 100 degrees possible across the southwest
counties of the CWA. Deeper mixing across the western counties
should cause dewpoints to drop into the mid 60s during the afternoon
hours. The northeast counties may keep lower 70 dewpoints through
the afternoon hours but high temperatures will be slightly cooler in
the mid 90s. Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees across
the CWA during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The GFS is the only model hinting at clipping the far northwest
county warning area with convection Wednesday night despite fcst
soundings showing inhibition aloft through the night. Will therefore
maintain a dry fcst through Thursday morning as the shortwave
helping to develop precip should pass well north and west of the
cwa. Another shortwave trough over the southern Rockies will move
northeast and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the northwest
third of the cwa Thursday night...although again the better chances
will remain well north and west of the cwa.

Following this wave...the ridging with the upper level high will
undergo amplification as the stronger shortwave trough begins to
rotate out of the case of the western trough and into the
central/southern Rockies. Although this should keep the cwa dry and
hot on Friday...it may allow for some of the high plains convection
that forms late in the day to spread east and northeastward and
briefly clip the cwa Friday night. Highs Thursday through Saturday
will generally be in the middle to upper 90s.

Models differ some with the overall timing/speed of the final
shortwave to rotate out through the western trough and into the
central plains next week. However they are similar in bringing the
western trough slowly eastward into the ridge and gradually
flattening it with time. This will result in one front moving into
the cwa by Monday with a second arriving by Wednesday. This will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of the
area Sunday thru Tuesday. With more clouds...precip chances and
initial front...cooled high temperatures slightly for now into the
80s and lower 90s. At the same time...cooled lows in the middle 70s
Thursday and Friday into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The
low-level jet will increase to 40 KTS 1500 feet above the surface
which will produce moderate low-level wind shear at the terminals
between 9Z and 14Z WED.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan/Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
113 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The
low-level jet will increase to 40 KTS 1500 feet above the surface
which will produce moderate low-level wind shear at the terminals
between 9Z and 14Z WED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan/Drake








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191813
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
113 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. The
low-level jet will increase to 40 KTS 1500 feet above the surface
which will produce moderate low-level wind shear at the terminals
between 9Z and 14Z WED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan/Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 191134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Primarily a wind forecast through the period. Winds variable for
the first several hours as outflow from overnight convection
continues to influence the taf sites. Winds become southeast then
southwest through the period. Could see VCTS near TOP/FOE late
afternoon into the evening but too late in the period to add yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Primarily a wind forecast through the period. Winds variable for
the first several hours as outflow from overnight convection
continues to influence the taf sites. Winds become southeast then
southwest through the period. Could see VCTS near TOP/FOE late
afternoon into the evening but too late in the period to add yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with main concern being TSRA
potential. Cluster of TSRA over north central KS is progged to
gradually dissipate towards the southeast overnight. Short term
guidance maintains scattered TSRA aft 08Z so will leave VCTS
mention through 11Z at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Ongoing showers and storms bringing some welcome rainfall for areas
along and south of I70. As MCV passes eastward and low level jet
continues to veer, expect downward trend to continue and end through
the southeast counties through the mid morning hours.

As clouds and showers slowly clear and the upper ridge advances
eastward through the day into central Kansas, warm temperatures
return with upper 90s near Abilene to around 90 in the far northeast
where the front lingers through the late afternoon. Heat indices
along and south of the interstate will run in the 100-102 range
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70. May see some
showers/storms along the front across the northeast late day into
early evening, but is ushered quickly to the north and east of our
forecast area as southwest flow increases, and will only carry a
slight chance PoP for a short time. Warm overnight lows in the 70s
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Increasing south winds under a building upper ridge will allow for
rather warm conditions to develop Wednesday with the heat continuing
through much of the next several days. Some increase in deep layer
moisture will occur along a weak boundary that may sag south into
northern Kansas Thursday night and will keep small precipitation
chances here. Have reduced/removed precipitation chances into the
early portions of the weekend with lesser confidence in this
boundary remaining nearby as decent cross-mountain flow develops
over the central/northern Rockies. Models in better agreement with
northern Rockies upper trough sliding east into the Great Lakes
around Monday and bringing a cold front in. This should bring
noticeably cooler temps in and a least small precipitation chances.
Have raised temps a bit ahead of this front. At this point,
confidence in any one day reaching advisory levels is low, but a
prolonged period of near advisory apparent temps could result in the
need for an advisory from the mid week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with main concern being TSRA
potential. Cluster of TSRA over north central KS is progged to
gradually dissipate towards the southeast overnight. Short term
guidance maintains scattered TSRA aft 08Z so will leave VCTS
mention through 11Z at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 190436
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with main concern being TSRA
potential. Cluster of TSRA over north central KS is progged to
gradually dissipate towards the southeast overnight. Short term
guidance maintains scattered TSRA aft 08Z so will leave VCTS
mention through 11Z at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 190436
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with main concern being TSRA
potential. Cluster of TSRA over north central KS is progged to
gradually dissipate towards the southeast overnight. Short term
guidance maintains scattered TSRA aft 08Z so will leave VCTS
mention through 11Z at KMHK and 14Z at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182344
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions prevail at sites as new guidance is increasing
confidence for VCTS mention for scattered TSRA to form along and
north of a frontal boundary near the terminals. Best timing for
convection in vicinity of terminals is from 06Z to 13Z. Isolated
strong wind gusts are possible. VRB winds persist near the boundary
axis shifting towards the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182344
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions prevail at sites as new guidance is increasing
confidence for VCTS mention for scattered TSRA to form along and
north of a frontal boundary near the terminals. Best timing for
convection in vicinity of terminals is from 06Z to 13Z. Isolated
strong wind gusts are possible. VRB winds persist near the boundary
axis shifting towards the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions across the terminals through the next 24
hours. An isolated thunderstorm may affect the terminals between
6Z and 12Z TUE. At this time confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions across the terminals through the next 24
hours. An isolated thunderstorm may affect the terminals between
6Z and 12Z TUE. At this time confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Short term forecast is difficult at best as models having difficulty
resolving past nights convection.  Mesohigh has developed under
decaying showers over eastern Kansas at this hour, pushing the
effective front southward into Oklahoma as well as to the west and
north.  Additional shortwave trofs noted in WV imagery over NW KS
and Nebraska into the Dakotas, and these are likely to influence
weather later on in the day.

Trimmed back morning PoPs to isolated and diminished west to east
not long after sunrise. Forecast is based largely on mesoscale
effects of the convection,and have delayed onset of another round of
convection until the late afternoon hours after atmosphere has a
chance to destabilize once again. Models ramp up instability given
high dewpoints and steeper mid level lapse rates but a weak cap
remains in place most areas. Shear values also borderline around
30-35kts. With lack of a strong wave may be a case of storms back
building into our area or low level jet dynamics generating storms
later on.  Will have to watch how pattern unfolds after tonights
convection, but at this time think chances may be better to the
northeast where front and energy are more juxtaposed later today. Highs
today from near 90 NE top near 100 in the southwest. Expect warm
overnight lows near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

On Tuesday morning the front should be stalled out along or just
south of interstate 70, and extend west through north central KS.
Depending on the strength of the frontogenesis during this time
frame have kept slight pops across the southeast forecast area. The
front is forecast to lift northward into NE and northwest MO during
the day Tuesday as the strong upper low continues further east into
the Great Lakes region. Lift should increase overnight north of the
front although the precip may develop near the NE/KS state line
before it moves north. On Wednesday the upper ridge really begins to
build across the Mid South keeping the forecast area within the warm
sector. A shortwave moving northeast through the northern plains
will push a front through western KS Wednesday night. As the ridge
holds strong over the south so does the front out west. The models
suggest weak shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft
moving over the frontal boundary in western KS and NE through late
week. Have kept the slight chances for thunderstorms in north
central KS in case anything that develops along that front and moves
eastward especially Thursday night and Friday night. As a strong
upper low moves through southern Canada it begins to suppress the
ridge over the weekend. Depending on how far south the ridge gets
suppressed will dictate the front moving into eastern KS and the
better chances at some precip. Until then high temperatures will
remain in the 90s and low 100s in central KS through late week. Not
much relief overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions across the terminals through the next 24
hours. An isolated thunderstorm may affect the terminals between
6Z and 12Z TUE. At this time confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Short term forecast is difficult at best as models having difficulty
resolving past nights convection.  Mesohigh has developed under
decaying showers over eastern Kansas at this hour, pushing the
effective front southward into Oklahoma as well as to the west and
north.  Additional shortwave trofs noted in WV imagery over NW KS
and Nebraska into the Dakotas, and these are likely to influence
weather later on in the day.

Trimmed back morning PoPs to isolated and diminished west to east
not long after sunrise. Forecast is based largely on mesoscale
effects of the convection,and have delayed onset of another round of
convection until the late afternoon hours after atmosphere has a
chance to destabilize once again. Models ramp up instability given
high dewpoints and steeper mid level lapse rates but a weak cap
remains in place most areas. Shear values also borderline around
30-35kts. With lack of a strong wave may be a case of storms back
building into our area or low level jet dynamics generating storms
later on.  Will have to watch how pattern unfolds after tonights
convection, but at this time think chances may be better to the
northeast where front and energy are more juxtaposed later today. Highs
today from near 90 NE top near 100 in the southwest. Expect warm
overnight lows near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

On Tuesday morning the front should be stalled out along or just
south of interstate 70, and extend west through north central KS.
Depending on the strength of the frontogenesis during this time
frame have kept slight pops across the southeast forecast area. The
front is forecast to lift northward into NE and northwest MO during
the day Tuesday as the strong upper low continues further east into
the Great Lakes region. Lift should increase overnight north of the
front although the precip may develop near the NE/KS state line
before it moves north. On Wednesday the upper ridge really begins to
build across the Mid South keeping the forecast area within the warm
sector. A shortwave moving northeast through the northern plains
will push a front through western KS Wednesday night. As the ridge
holds strong over the south so does the front out west. The models
suggest weak shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft
moving over the frontal boundary in western KS and NE through late
week. Have kept the slight chances for thunderstorms in north
central KS in case anything that develops along that front and moves
eastward especially Thursday night and Friday night. As a strong
upper low moves through southern Canada it begins to suppress the
ridge over the weekend. Depending on how far south the ridge gets
suppressed will dictate the front moving into eastern KS and the
better chances at some precip. Until then high temperatures will
remain in the 90s and low 100s in central KS through late week. Not
much relief overnight with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions across the terminals through the next 24
hours. An isolated thunderstorm may affect the terminals between
6Z and 12Z TUE. At this time confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities