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000
FXUS63 KTOP 060912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A mid-level shortwave trough extended as far south as northeast
Kansas early this morning, resulting in a stratus cloud deck
skimming across far northern and far northeast Kansas. Some short-
range models are still suggesting some patchy fog may develop early
this morning near the KS/NE border as a result of the extra moisture
moving into the area with stratus deck.  This stratus deck combined
with some scattered mid-level clouds elsewhere across the region
will result in low temperatures in the 20s early this morning.
Models show this shortwave trough quickly exiting to the east this
morning with a weak ridge extending into the area this afternoon
into this evening. However, a weak embedded wave located over
Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over
the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening
and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Model soundings show cloud cover scattering out later this
morning, with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. With
surface low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the
south today, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. These
winds combined with mostly sunny skies should aid in some warm air
advection and afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 40s
(possibly even around 50 degrees), with the coolest conditions in
north central Kansas where some snow pack still exists.  As the mid-
level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to
start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds
possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low
temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains
and into Kansas by mid day Sunday. A secondary cold surge moves
through very early Monday morning. Expect a strong pressure gradient
at the surface and strong uni-directional northwesterly wind field
through the mid levels of the troposphere Sunday through Monday.
Also expect a deeply mixed boundary layer through this period, with
the exception being perhaps brief periods of reduced mixing on
Sunday night. Mean mixed layer winds on Sunday peak in the 30-40 kt
range and should be a good indicator of expected peak gusts although
could be briefly higher immediately behind the surface front
passage. RH will also be lower, probably approaching 30% or a bit
lower for a period on Sunday especially immediately behind the front
as temperatures will be initially warm but the airmass dry. This
could result in a tricky fire weather scenario with the wind shift,
increased gust speeds, and low RH...particularly for any early
weekend burns that may be left smoldering. Then, after the second
cold surge comes through early Monday morning, expected renewed
and even stronger wind gusts possibly on the order of 40-50 mph.
Also expect a chance for snow flurries to develop with a
relatively deep stratocu cloud layer likely to form at the top of
the boundary layer but below the inversion, and with lapse rates
supporting weak instability in this layer. Any flurries should end
by late in the day with winds also decreasing by sunset.

Temperatures warm for the remainder of the week as the cold airmass
shifts east. Will likely see a pretty strong gradient in
temperatures from west to east at least Tues/Wed as 850 T is
forecast to range a solid 10 degrees from SW to NE across the
forecast area on these days. Expect to climb well into the 40s and
approach the 50s by the end of the work week with dry weather likely
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A few models show stratus with MFVR ceilings moving southeast
from eastern NE across the KTOP and KFOE terminals. I do not have
confidence in this occurring but did keep SCT stratus with MVFR
ceilings in the TAF at KTOP and KFOE. IF skies clear out by
sunrise there may be some patchy ground fog at both KTOP and KMHK.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 060542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A few models show stratus with MFVR ceilings moving southeast
from eastern NE across the KTOP and KFOE terminals. I do not have
confidence in this occurring but did keep SCT stratus with MVFR
ceilings in the TAF at KTOP and KFOE. IF skies clear out by
sunrise there may be some patchy ground fog at both KTOP and KMHK.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 060542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A few models show stratus with MFVR ceilings moving southeast
from eastern NE across the KTOP and KFOE terminals. I do not have
confidence in this occurring but did keep SCT stratus with MVFR
ceilings in the TAF at KTOP and KFOE. IF skies clear out by
sunrise there may be some patchy ground fog at both KTOP and KMHK.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 060542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A few models show stratus with MFVR ceilings moving southeast
from eastern NE across the KTOP and KFOE terminals. I do not have
confidence in this occurring but did keep SCT stratus with MVFR
ceilings in the TAF at KTOP and KFOE. IF skies clear out by
sunrise there may be some patchy ground fog at both KTOP and KMHK.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 052327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period.  Same
thinking as the previous forecast that models are overdoing fog
formation, therefore, no fog will be mentioned in this TAF issuance.
Winds will be light and variable overnight before shifting from the
southwest tomorrow.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller




000
FXUS63 KTOP 052327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period.  Same
thinking as the previous forecast that models are overdoing fog
formation, therefore, no fog will be mentioned in this TAF issuance.
Winds will be light and variable overnight before shifting from the
southwest tomorrow.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller





000
FXUS63 KTOP 052327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period.  Same
thinking as the previous forecast that models are overdoing fog
formation, therefore, no fog will be mentioned in this TAF issuance.
Winds will be light and variable overnight before shifting from the
southwest tomorrow.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller





000
FXUS63 KTOP 052110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

20Z water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Great Plains
with a short wave over the TX panhandle and another one moving
through SD. At the surface a trough of low pressure stretched from
the TX Big Bend through the Dakotas with area observations showing
generally a dry airmass across the region.

For tonight the concern is whether there might be some ground fog or
stratus develop overnight. The NAM is the most aggressive solution
in saturating the low levels overnight, but also has a history of
being to aggressive with the low level humidity. Winds are expected
to shift to the west this evening as the surface trough axis moves
east. Therefore there shouldn`t be much in the way of moisture
advection unless there is higher dewpoints coming off the snow pack.
Dewpoint temps are slightly higher over the snow. The GFS and RAP
forecast soundings show any moisture to remain fairly shallow with
some wind just off the surface which could entrain dry air into the
boundary layer. Because of this I don`t have a great deal of
confidence in fog developing overnight and will not include it in
the forecast just yet. I would expect any fog to be immediately
downstream of the snow cover and the next shifts can monitor
conditions. With some weak low level warm air advection developing
overnight, lows should not be quite as cold and expect temps to
bottom out in the low to middle 20s.

For Saturday, the upper trough axis should be to the east with the
next trough moving into the northern Plains. This should lead to
shortwave ridging over the area. With relatively dry air still in
place, we should see more sunshine with only some high clouds.
Models also show warm air advection continuing through the day. With
this in mind, highs are forecast to trend warmer into the upper 40s
where there is no snow. Up around Republic CO, temps may struggle to
get into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

At this point, the most concerning weather is in the first few
periods of the long range forecast, but impacts still appear to be
low to most customers. Cold front still expected late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning as the upper wave approaching the coast of
British Columbia today digs southeast into the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Strong mixing develops through the day as cold air advection
persists, making for a challenging wind, temperature, and humidity
forecast as 850mb winds increase to the 35 to 50kt range. Have
trended a bit more extreme on all of these values, keeping fire
danger concerns elevated but Extreme values seem unlikely. Highs
could be warmer than Saturday in the deep mixing. Cold air advection
slowly backs off into Monday but a tightening pressure gradient
brings more wind potential. This day looking to be the more likely
day for Advisory speeds, with the boundary layer mixing into the
snow growth temperature zone with some stratus here to lead to some
snow shower potential. Have just mentioned flurries at this point
with anything more than trace amounts in this scenario unlikely,
with much cooler highs in the 30s.

Upper flow remains northwest but becomes a bit more zonal into the
mid-week periods for moderating temps and little opportunity for
precip. The next more significant front looks to come in around
Friday for perhaps some cooler temps but haven`t gotten too out of
hand at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist due to dry low levels in
the atmosphere. Main concern is once the mid clouds clear to the
east overnight, forecast soundings try to saturate the low levels
due to radiational cooling. The NAM is most aggressive and has a
history of overdoing the boundary layer saturation. Since there
isn`t expected to be any moisture advection overnight and there
hasn`t been fog or stratus the last couple mornings, think the NAM
is an outlier and will keep a VFR forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051713
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1113 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist due to dry low levels in
the atmosphere. Main concern is once the mid clouds clear to the
east overnight, forecast soundings try to saturate the low levels
due to radiational cooling. The NAM is most aggressive and has a
history of overdoing the boundary layer saturation. Since there
isn`t expected to be any moisture advection overnight and there
hasn`t been fog or stratus the last couple mornings, think the NAM
is an outlier and will keep a VFR forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with high cigs
gradually building down toward 5000 feet. There is a small chance
to go to MVFR with some very light snow or rain showers but more
likely to stay precipitation free and VFR. Winds shift out of the
northwest by late afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with high cigs
gradually building down toward 5000 feet. There is a small chance
to go to MVFR with some very light snow or rain showers but more
likely to stay precipitation free and VFR. Winds shift out of the
northwest by late afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 519 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with high cigs
gradually building down toward 5000 feet. There is a small chance
to go to MVFR with some very light snow or rain showers but more
likely to stay precipitation free and VFR. Winds shift out of the
northwest by late afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050932
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
332 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Early Friday morning, skies had become mostly cloudy us mid and
upper level clouds have overspread the area in advance of an
elongated short wave trough extending from central Nebraska into
northeast New Mexico. Another short wave trough was evident over the
western Dakotas. High pressure was dominating the local area at the
surface with light winds and a very dry airmass in place per the 00Z
TOP RAOB. A narrow band of relatively weak isentropic ascent in the
mid levels was slowly moving east on the back side of the high
pressure over northwest KS. This was producing precipitation aloft
but little to no clouds below 5000 feet in KS and a few observations
of light snow in western Nebraska. The light snow observations
seemed to be in an area with more favorable low level moisture
availability. As the initial short wave crosses the Plains to our
south today and the weak lift moves into eastern KS, there is at
least a small chance for some very light snow or flurries mainly in
north central KS. Suppose an afternoon sprinkle could not be ruled
out as well with temperatures warming up. This chance will continue
as the second short wave dives into the area and enhances lift over
northeast KS late in the day. For most of the area, light
precipitation is unlikely but widespread cloud cover should be
expected which will keep temperatures modified in the low to mid
40s. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the later-day trough
and skies should clear out by near morning from NW to SE. If
clearing occurs earlier, would expect lows to drop a few degrees
colder, especially in the snow-covered areas of north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will be exiting to the east with a
stronger mid-level trough deepening from the northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains into Sunday. This trough will continue to deepen
over the Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into
Monday, with this advancing trough helping to push a weak cold front
through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Despite
this frontal passage, expect the above-normal temperatures to
persist for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 40s to low 50s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Have continued to trend cooler for
highs in the north central Kansas due to the existing snow pack,
however there is uncertainty with regards to how long this snow pack
will exist. Models show an embedded wave developing along the
western edge of the trough and tracking southward across northeast
Kansas Sunday night into Monday. While the best moisture and lift
should stay northeast of the forecast area, some models suggest that
there may be just enough moisture and lift to potentially support
some scattered flurries. This embedded shortwave will help to usher
cooler air into the region with highs dropping into the 30s for
Monday with Monday night lows in the upper teens to low 20s.
However, these cooler conditions will be short-lived as the deep mid-
level trough quickly shifts eastward with a mid-level ridge
stretched across the western U.S.  This meridional flow should
flatten out some by Thursday and Friday.  Expect temperatures to
gradually moderate back into the 40s and low 50s by Wednesday and
these conditions should persist through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050538
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050538
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050538
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 042245
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
445 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 440 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Do expect winds to
veer to the south/southeast through time and high and mid clouds
to build in over the terminals by the last half of the forecast
period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 042110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders





000
FXUS63 KTOP 042110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Most locations have warmed into the 40s this afternoon with the
exception of areas with snow cover, which is keeping temperatures in
the 20s and highs may struggle to reach freezing. The warmer
temperatures supported by deeper mixing have allowed stronger winds
to mix down to the surface, but should speeds will decrease after
sunset. Tonight a mid/upper level ridge will build over the region
therefore supporting a surface high pressure to slide across the
forecast area tonight. This should allow for calm winds and partly
cloudy skies. Therefore expect lows to reach the upper 10s and lower
20s. Most of the models are indicating mid level warm advection
ahead of a weak shortwave that will track over KS tomorrow. So these
clouds could keep some locations especially central KS from cooling
off as much as forecasted. There is a slight chance for very light
snow across north central KS late tomorrow morning as that wave
provides lift and moisture. Further east there is a lack of moisture
in the low levels closer to the high pressure. Winds will veer
around to the southeast by late morning, and to the southwest by
afternoon as a front passes through the area. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to today, and the lack of sun should be compensated by the
southwesterly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The main challenge to the forecast is temperatures. Southwest winds
return Saturday but high cloud (and residual snow cover in the
northwest) will likely keep mixing depths limited to below 850mb
where temps rise around 5C from Friday afternoon. A deepening wave
coming out of western Canada brings another cold front Saturday
night. Mixing depths again are a forecast concern in both temps
and winds with 50kts at 850mb on some runs and cold air advection
allowing mixing to near this level. Trended temps and winds up a
bit given the mixing potential. Continued cold air advection into
Monday brings temps back down to around normal. Models look to be
slowing the transition out of the stronger northwest flow for next
week but temps should still push to above normal levels by
Thursday with any additional cold fronts next week bringing in
well modified airmasses.

Will go ahead and keep a small chance for light precip in the
southeast Friday night. The upper wave looks to continue to
intensify a bit as it exits to the southeast, though moisture
in the column continues to be a challenge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041730
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Sanders




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041730
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Sanders





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WInds
will increase from the west southwest after 16Z to around 11kts
with an occasional gust to around 20kts. Winds will decrease to
less than 10kts around 23Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WInds
will increase from the west southwest after 16Z to around 11kts
with an occasional gust to around 20kts. Winds will decrease to
less than 10kts around 23Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. WInds
will increase from the west southwest after 16Z to around 11kts
with an occasional gust to around 20kts. Winds will decrease to
less than 10kts around 23Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040921
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040921
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040921
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level trough axis was moving through northeast Kansas early
this morning at 08Z while a shortwave in the northern stream was
moving across the Dakotas. Broad high pressure extended from the
Rockies east into the Mid Mississippi Valley and temperatures were
mainly in the teens across the area.

Light west to southwest surface flow will continue through the day
while the Dakotas shortwave moves into Wisconsin by early evening.
Temperatures today should mix down from about 940mb-900mb yielding
highs in the lower 30s in far north central Kansas to the mid 40s in
east central Kansas. An upper level trough across the western states
will move east and into the Western High Plains late tonight. Weak
high pressure will move off to the east through the evening with
winds relatively light through the night. There will be an increase
in high clouds after midnight as the upper system approaches. Lows
tonight will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

The upper-level shortwave trough will be moving over eastern Kansas
on Friday with an associated front making its way through the area
Friday evening.  With only limited moisture and weak lift in the low
levels, precipitation chances are limited to east central Kansas
Friday night.  Thermal profiles indicate any precipitation would
start as rain then change to snow late night as temperatures fall
with no to little accumulations expected.  Next shortwave begins to
dig south from the Northern Plains Saturday night, bringing a cold
front across the region Sunday.  Models have shifted the best
moisture and forcing just east of Kansas, therefore, no
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. High
temperatures do show a brief cooling trend from Sunday to Tuesday as
northwest flow aids cold air advection.  From here, dry conditions
persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040549
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040549
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040549
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1149 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy shallow ground fog forming at KTOP and KMHK towards
sunrise but should mix out by 14Z THU.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032316
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
516 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions the entire period with dry air and decreasing lift.
Such minor concern with radiational ground fog at this point that
it has been left out of the TAFs.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period, with some sct025 near
TOP/FOE early in the TAF period. Northwest winds today decrease
this evening and become westerly to southwesterly with time.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period, with some sct025 near
TOP/FOE early in the TAF period. Northwest winds today decrease
this evening and become westerly to southwesterly with time.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Central US currently dominated by a large scale upper trof that
extends from Canada to Mexico.  Smaller scale pieces of energy
rotating through the trof, with one noted extending from Central
Nebraska southwest into SW Colorado.  Northwesterly surface flow
continues over the area today as the surface gradient has weakened,
with low clouds moving off to the east.

For tonight passing shortwave likely to keep just enough mixing in
the low levels to keep fog concerns at bay.  Lows still fall into
the teens for most of the area, cooler to the far northwest where
heavier snow fell.  Warm advection on the back side of the systems
brings 850mb temps up several degrees some of which should translate
to the surface. Highs progged to range from around freezing over the
snow to the middle 40s in the far southeast counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

By tomorrow night northwest flow aloft will be well established as a
series of shortwave troughs track over the northern Rockies and into
the central US. As usually these systems struggle to tap into low
level gulf moisture, but bring with them pacific moisture. As that
system moves over the area Friday evening there may be enough
associated lift and moisture from the gulf to produce precipitation
across east central KS. Temperatures will cool off behind the front,
but will be in the upper 40s Friday afternoon. Therefore the brief
period of precipitation may start as rain and change over to snow.
Accumulations appear minor at this point especially given the warm
proceeding conditions. Another shortwave drops southward Sunday
afternoon and evening although tracks much farther north. Far
northeast KS will be on the southern fringes of the lift and
moisture associated with this system. Again there is a slight chance
for precipitation that could start as rain and change over to snow.
High temperatures on Sunday are forecasted to be in the 40s, but
temperatures cool off behind a secondary front. It is that system
that will bring the next cool down as 850 mb temperatures dip
towards -15 to -20 by Tuesday, which should translate into highs in
the 30s and lows in the 10s. Otherwise mostly dry weather into the
extended with the continuation of the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period, with some sct025 near
TOP/FOE early in the TAF period. Northwest winds today decrease
this evening and become westerly to southwesterly with time.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031750
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period, with some sct025 near
TOP/FOE early in the TAF period. Northwest winds today decrease
this evening and become westerly to southwesterly with time.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR cigs at terminals will transition to VFR around 14Z-15Z at
MHK and around 17Z-19Z at TOP and FOE. During the transition
period cigs may bounce between the vfr and mvfr categories. Winds
will continue out of the northwest around 16kts with gusts to
near 30 kts through 17Z then decrease to around 14kts before
backing to the west northwest around 7kts around 00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR cigs at terminals will transition to VFR around 14Z-15Z at
MHK and around 17Z-19Z at TOP and FOE. During the transition
period cigs may bounce between the vfr and mvfr categories. Winds
will continue out of the northwest around 16kts with gusts to
near 30 kts through 17Z then decrease to around 14kts before
backing to the west northwest around 7kts around 00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR cigs at terminals will transition to VFR around 14Z-15Z at
MHK and around 17Z-19Z at TOP and FOE. During the transition
period cigs may bounce between the vfr and mvfr categories. Winds
will continue out of the northwest around 16kts with gusts to
near 30 kts through 17Z then decrease to around 14kts before
backing to the west northwest around 7kts around 00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030928
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Snow flurries are possible at KMHK and KTOP, with light snow at
KFOE. Visibilities at KFOE may drop to 5 to 6SM with 6 to 10SM at
KTOP and KMHK. The light snow and flurries should end before 9Z
WED. MVFR stratus will continue through the morning and begin to
scatter out in the afternoon. Northwest winds will range between
13 to 20 KTS with gusts of 25 to 32 KTS through the early morning
hours and winds should diminish through the day.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan





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