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000
FXUS63 KTOP 052302
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
602 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas
this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific
and another over the eastern U.S.. Surface high extended from Iowa
across eastern Kansas and into north Texas. The surface high will
move off slowly to the east through tonight with southerly return
flow developing from west to east after midnight. Another night of
clear skies are expected tonight with lows dropping down into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Heights rise on Friday along with increasing
warm advection and we should mix up to 850 mb or so across the area.
Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid
80s in central Kansas. Winds increase through the day with
increasing pressure gradient. Should also mix down stronger winds
aloft which will yield wind gusts around 27 mph in north central
Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Warm air advection pattern still ramps up Friday night but limited
moisture and instability aloft and dry layers below should keep any
precip limited to sprinkles at most. Frontal boundary still appears
to sink into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture values still
recovering and warm air aloft should make local thunderstorm
development difficult but small chances still justified in northern
areas in the afternoon. Have inched up high temps for central and
southern areas Saturday given the overnight WAA but with some high
cloud and uncertainty on boundary location confidence is not high on
specifics. More organized thunderstorm development is expected to
occur in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon
which could translate east over ridge and along the elevated front
make its way into the area per Corfidi vectors. Could see MCS type
precip linger into Sunday morning but area could easily be in
moderately unstable airmass in the afternoon still well downstream
of the upper low. If the old front or an outflow remains in the area
there will be some chance for thunderstorms in peak heating. Winds
aloft should be increasing somewhat but there will be some potential
for severe weather.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

Uncertainty remains high for evolution of thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Model to model consistency remains low with the
placement of the warm front. Current 12Z guidance would suggest the
warm front would position along the KS/NE border. The next question
is will surface-base convection occur along the warm front. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS forecast soundings along the KS/NE border valid at 00Z
Monday suggest very weak to perhaps a completely eroded EML. If this
solution were to come to fruition, all modes of severe weather would
become possible as moderate instability and sufficient low-
level/deep-layer shear will be in place. Good agreement amongst the
ECMWF and GFS with passage of an upper level shortwave trough Sunday
night into Monday morning. This solution suggests convection along
the dryline in central/southern KS should congeal into line of
elevated convection late Sunday evening and progress eastward across
the area. Severe weather would be possible across the area as MUCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/KG and deep-layer shear near 40-50 knots would
support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Zonal to perhaps
northwest flow returns for the middle of week. Precipitation chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as an embedded trough
within the northern stream sweeps across the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light winds
expected tonight with gusts to around 20 kts late morning through
afternoon on Friday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 052302
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
602 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas
this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific
and another over the eastern U.S.. Surface high extended from Iowa
across eastern Kansas and into north Texas. The surface high will
move off slowly to the east through tonight with southerly return
flow developing from west to east after midnight. Another night of
clear skies are expected tonight with lows dropping down into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Heights rise on Friday along with increasing
warm advection and we should mix up to 850 mb or so across the area.
Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid
80s in central Kansas. Winds increase through the day with
increasing pressure gradient. Should also mix down stronger winds
aloft which will yield wind gusts around 27 mph in north central
Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Warm air advection pattern still ramps up Friday night but limited
moisture and instability aloft and dry layers below should keep any
precip limited to sprinkles at most. Frontal boundary still appears
to sink into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture values still
recovering and warm air aloft should make local thunderstorm
development difficult but small chances still justified in northern
areas in the afternoon. Have inched up high temps for central and
southern areas Saturday given the overnight WAA but with some high
cloud and uncertainty on boundary location confidence is not high on
specifics. More organized thunderstorm development is expected to
occur in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon
which could translate east over ridge and along the elevated front
make its way into the area per Corfidi vectors. Could see MCS type
precip linger into Sunday morning but area could easily be in
moderately unstable airmass in the afternoon still well downstream
of the upper low. If the old front or an outflow remains in the area
there will be some chance for thunderstorms in peak heating. Winds
aloft should be increasing somewhat but there will be some potential
for severe weather.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

Uncertainty remains high for evolution of thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Model to model consistency remains low with the
placement of the warm front. Current 12Z guidance would suggest the
warm front would position along the KS/NE border. The next question
is will surface-base convection occur along the warm front. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS forecast soundings along the KS/NE border valid at 00Z
Monday suggest very weak to perhaps a completely eroded EML. If this
solution were to come to fruition, all modes of severe weather would
become possible as moderate instability and sufficient low-
level/deep-layer shear will be in place. Good agreement amongst the
ECMWF and GFS with passage of an upper level shortwave trough Sunday
night into Monday morning. This solution suggests convection along
the dryline in central/southern KS should congeal into line of
elevated convection late Sunday evening and progress eastward across
the area. Severe weather would be possible across the area as MUCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/KG and deep-layer shear near 40-50 knots would
support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Zonal to perhaps
northwest flow returns for the middle of week. Precipitation chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as an embedded trough
within the northern stream sweeps across the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light winds
expected tonight with gusts to around 20 kts late morning through
afternoon on Friday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 052050
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
350 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues across central and eastern Kansas
this afternoon as we are in between a trough in the eastern Pacific
and another over the eastern U.S.. Surface high extended from Iowa
across eastern Kansas and into north Texas. The surface high will
move off slowly to the east through tonight with southerly return
flow developing from west to east after midnight. Another night of
clear skies are expected tonight with lows dropping down into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Heights rise on Friday along with increasing
warm advection and we should mix up to 850 mb or so across the area.
Expect highs to reach the lower 80s with a few readings in the mid
80s in central Kansas. Winds increase through the day with
increasing pressure gradient. Should also mix down stronger winds
aloft which will yield wind gusts around 27 mph in north central
Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Warm air advection pattern still ramps up Friday night but limited
moisture and instability aloft and dry layers below should keep any
precip limited to sprinkles at most. Frontal boundary still appears
to sink into the area Saturday afternoon but moisture values still
recovering and warm air aloft should make local thunderstorm
development difficult but small chances still justified in northern
areas in the afternoon. Have inched up high temps for central and
southern areas Saturday given the overnight WAA but with some high
cloud and uncertainty on boundary location confidence is not high on
specifics. More organized thunderstorm development is expected to
occur in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon
which could translate east over ridge and along the elevated front
make its way into the area per Corfidi vectors. Could see MCS type
precip linger into Sunday morning but area could easily be in
moderately unstable airmass in the afternoon still well downstream
of the upper low. If the old front or an outflow remains in the area
there will be some chance for thunderstorms in peak heating. Winds
aloft should be increasing somewhat but there will be some potential
for severe weather.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

Uncertainty remains high for evolution of thunderstorm activity
Sunday evening. Model to model consistency remains low with the
placement of the warm front. Current 12Z guidance would suggest the
warm front would position along the KS/NE border. The next question
is will surface-base convection occur along the warm front. 12Z
ECMWF/GFS forecast soundings along the KS/NE border valid at 00Z
Monday suggest very weak to perhaps a completely eroded EML. If this
solution were to come to fruition, all modes of severe weather would
become possible as moderate instability and sufficient low-
level/deep-layer shear will be in place. Good agreement amongst the
ECMWF and GFS with passage of an upper level shortwave trough Sunday
night into Monday morning. This solution suggests convection along
the dryline in central/southern KS should congeal into line of
elevated convection late Sunday evening and progress eastward across
the area. Severe weather would be possible across the area as MUCAPE
of 1500-2000 J/KG and deep-layer shear near 40-50 knots would
support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Zonal to perhaps
northwest flow returns for the middle of week. Precipitation chances
increase Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as an embedded trough
within the northern stream sweeps across the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions persist. Truly variable winds
likely, but have tried to suggest the eventual veering of winds
from a SSE direction.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051704
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions persist. Truly variable winds
likely, but have tried to suggest the eventual veering of winds
from a SSE direction.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051704
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

For the 18Z TAFs, VFR conditions persist. Truly variable winds
likely, but have tried to suggest the eventual veering of winds
from a SSE direction.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051100
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
600 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions hold for the entire 12Z TAF period. Winds remain
light under 10kts today and slowly veer around eventually to the
southwest by tomorrow morning. Have not added a 3rd line for this
as winds remain mostly calm and variable into the later periods.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 051100
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
600 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions hold for the entire 12Z TAF period. Winds remain
light under 10kts today and slowly veer around eventually to the
southwest by tomorrow morning. Have not added a 3rd line for this
as winds remain mostly calm and variable into the later periods.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050759
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050759
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from
the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will
gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly
eastward. Clear skies are expected overnight with light winds. Low
lying sheltered areas and river valleys will be the coolest. Lows
temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday, the surface
high will gradually move across eastern Kansas through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be light across the area, but there will be
abundant sunshine. Forecast soundings show mixing to 850 mb and
should yield highs in the mid 70s most area with parts of north
central Kansas see highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Weak winds continue Thursday night as surface ridge remains in
place. With clear skies Thursday night into much of Friday, shaded
lows a bit below MOS. South to southwest lower level winds take
hold Friday into much of Saturday for a warming trend. Specifics
of how warm are not clear with increasing high cloud Friday and
the nearing of a cold front into northern area Saturday afternoon
but highs into the lower to mid 80s are likely for much of the
area. Moisture quality looks low through Saturday afternoon, with
the warm air likely leaving some cap aloft even if the front comes
in, so precip chance looks low but enough potential for a slight
chance in the north. Moderate isentropic lift develops ahead of a
northern wave Friday night around 310K, but moisture again is too
weak for any precip concern.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of an upper
level trough across the four corners region. The trough will slowly
eject into the central plains this weekend into early next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday as
the first of several shortwaves eject out of the base of the trough.
Isentropic lift will also increase Saturday night within the 300-
305K layer. Severe weather appears low at this time through Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening
as a sharpening dryline sets up across central KS/OK with a warm
front in or very near the CWA. At this point, severe weather is
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as sufficient instability and
deep layer shear should be in place. Another round of severe weather
is possible Monday afternoon evening as the dryline is expected to
set up in the area along with an upper level shortwave ejecting across
the area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through
mid-week as the cutoff upper level low slowly progresses
eastward, allowing multiple shortwaves to continue rotating across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 050500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from
the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will
gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly
eastward. Clear skies are expected overnight with light winds. Low
lying sheltered areas and river valleys will be the coolest. Lows
temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday, the surface
high will gradually move across eastern Kansas through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be light across the area, but there will be
abundant sunshine. Forecast soundings show mixing to 850 mb and
should yield highs in the mid 70s most area with parts of north
central Kansas see highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Weak winds continue Thursday night as surface ridge remains in
place. With clear skies Thursday night into much of Friday, shaded
lows a bit below MOS. South to southwest lower level winds take
hold Friday into much of Saturday for a warming trend. Specifics
of how warm are not clear with increasing high cloud Friday and
the nearing of a cold front into northern area Saturday afternoon
but highs into the lower to mid 80s are likely for much of the
area. Moisture quality looks low through Saturday afternoon, with
the warm air likely leaving some cap aloft even if the front comes
in, so precip chance looks low but enough potential for a slight
chance in the north. Moderate isentropic lift develops ahead of a
northern wave Friday night around 310K, but moisture again is too
weak for any precip concern.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of an upper
level trough across the four corners region. The trough will slowly
eject into the central plains this weekend into early next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday as
the first of several shortwaves eject out of the base of the trough.
Isentropic lift will also increase Saturday night within the 300-
305K layer. Severe weather appears low at this time through Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening
as a sharpening dryline sets up across central KS/OK with a warm
front in or very near the CWA. At this point, severe weather is
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as sufficient instability and
deep layer shear should be in place. Another round of severe weather
is possible Monday afternoon evening as the dryline is expected to
set up in the area along with an upper level shortwave ejecting across
the area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through
mid-week as the cutoff upper level low slowly progresses
eastward, allowing multiple shortwaves to continue rotating across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 042314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from
the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will
gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly
eastward. Clear skies are expected overnight with light winds. Low
lying sheltered areas and river valleys will be the coolest. Lows
temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday, the surface
high will gradually move across eastern Kansas through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be light across the area, but there will be
abundant sunshine. Forecast soundings show mixing to 850 mb and
should yield highs in the mid 70s most area with parts of north
central Kansas see highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Weak winds continue Thursday night as surface ridge remains in
place. With clear skies Thursday night into much of Friday, shaded
lows a bit below MOS. South to southwest lower level winds take
hold Friday into much of Saturday for a warming trend. Specifics
of how warm are not clear with increasing high cloud Friday and
the nearing of a cold front into northern area Saturday afternoon
but highs into the lower to mid 80s are likely for much of the
area. Moisture quality looks low through Saturday afternoon, with
the warm air likely leaving some cap aloft even if the front comes
in, so precip chance looks low but enough potential for a slight
chance in the north. Moderate isentropic lift develops ahead of a
northern wave Friday night around 310K, but moisture again is too
weak for any precip concern.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of an upper
level trough across the four corners region. The trough will slowly
eject into the central plains this weekend into early next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday as
the first of several shortwaves eject out of the base of the trough.
Isentropic lift will also increase Saturday night within the 300-
305K layer. Severe weather appears low at this time through Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening
as a sharpening dryline sets up across central KS/OK with a warm
front in or very near the CWA. At this point, severe weather is
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as sufficient instability and
deep layer shear should be in place. Another round of severe weather
is possible Monday afternoon evening as the dryline is expected to
set up in the area along with an upper level shortwave ejecting across
the area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through
mid-week as the cutoff upper level low slowly progresses
eastward, allowing multiple shortwaves to continue rotating across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Baerg





000
FXUS63 KTOP 042031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
331 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Latest surface analysis showed the broad area of high pressure from
the Rockies into the the Central Plains. Pressure gradient will
gradually weaken this evening as the high pressure moves slowly
eastward. Clear skies are expected overnight with light winds. Low
lying sheltered areas and river valleys will be the coolest. Lows
temps tonight will fall into the lower 40s. Thursday, the surface
high will gradually move across eastern Kansas through the day on
Thursday. Winds will be light across the area, but there will be
abundant sunshine. Forecast soundings show mixing to 850 mb and
should yield highs in the mid 70s most area with parts of north
central Kansas see highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Weak winds continue Thursday night as surface ridge remains in
place. With clear skies Thursday night into much of Friday, shaded
lows a bit below MOS. South to southwest lower level winds take
hold Friday into much of Saturday for a warming trend. Specifics
of how warm are not clear with increasing high cloud Friday and
the nearing of a cold front into northern area Saturday afternoon
but highs into the lower to mid 80s are likely for much of the
area. Moisture quality looks low through Saturday afternoon, with
the warm air likely leaving some cap aloft even if the front comes
in, so precip chance looks low but enough potential for a slight
chance in the north. Moderate isentropic lift develops ahead of a
northern wave Friday night around 310K, but moisture again is too
weak for any precip concern.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

WAA will be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of an upper
level trough across the four corners region. The trough will slowly
eject into the central plains this weekend into early next week.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday as
the first of several shortwaves eject out of the base of the trough.
Isentropic lift will also increase Saturday night within the 300-
305K layer. Severe weather appears low at this time through Sunday
morning. Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday afternoon and evening
as a sharpening dryline sets up across central KS/OK with a warm
front in or very near the CWA. At this point, severe weather is
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as sufficient instability and
deep layer shear should be in place. Another round of severe weather
is possible Monday afternoon evening as the dryline is expected to
set up in the area along with an upper level shortwave ejecting across
the area. Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through
mid-week as the cutoff upper level low slowly progresses
eastward, allowing multiple shortwaves to continue rotating across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly winds
around 14 kts with gusts to 23kts will decrease by 01Z to less
than 10 kts.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly winds
around 14 kts with gusts to 23kts will decrease by 01Z to less
than 10 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northerly winds
around 14 kts with gusts to 23kts will decrease by 01Z to less
than 10 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions hold the entire period. Expect
NNW winds to increase as mixing begins by mid morning. Not
concerned with morning fog near the end of the period, even though
winds do decouple overnight, as the boundary layer continues to
dry out further today.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 041122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions hold the entire period. Expect
NNW winds to increase as mixing begins by mid morning. Not
concerned with morning fog near the end of the period, even though
winds do decouple overnight, as the boundary layer continues to
dry out further today.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies expected through the TAF
period with the main focus being timing of wind shift and gusts
which should max out from the north at around 20 kts during the
day Wednesday.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

An upper level trough across the northern Great Lakes early this
morning will amplify as it digs south-southeast across the OH river
valley and into the central Appellation Mountains tonight. This
pattern will keep eastern KS under north-northwesterly flow aloft
through tonight.

A weak surface cold front will pass south of the CWA through the
early and mid morning hours. Winds will switch to the northwest and
north and increase as the boundary layer mixes to 850mb. Winds will
be northerly at 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts to 30 MPH possible
through the early afternoon hours. Winds will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon hour as a ridge of surface high pressure
builds southward across the CWA by 00Z THU. Despite the low-level
CAA the mixing up to 850mb, where temperatures are progged to be 7
to 8 deg C, we should see temperatures warm into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

Tonight, Clear skies and light winds cause overnight lows to drop
into the lower 40s, with some areas possible dropping into the upper
30s before sunrise on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

On Thursday the closed upper low pressure over the eastern US
continues dig to the southeast causing an expansive surface high
pressure to track across the region. Into the weekend an upper ridge
builds over the plains as another closed upper low pressure moves
over the southwest US. This ridge will support warm temperatures off
the high terrain to move into the central plains. On Friday and
Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s, which is not far off
from the records in the lower 90s. During the day Saturday an upper
trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front close to the
forecast area. A few of the models bring the front into northern KS
in the evening. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf and
eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Although the strongest winds aloft remain
either to far to the northeast or closer to the base of the western
trough. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening it could
be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread organized
convection is not as likely.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated storms
overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and possibly reach
eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. The upper low pressure
over the central Rockies does not move much keeping the warm front
within the vicinity on Sunday. Large scale diffluence over the warm
front and the approaching dry line into central KS will be the focus
for continued showers and storms on Sunday. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out,
while the deep layer shear appears marginal. Even on Monday the
upper low finally ejects out of the Rockies moving the surface low
pressure into central KS. There is a chance for the instability and
shear to possibly support severe storms Monday afternoon, but this
is far out. The upper low eventually moves over the region on
Tuesday although the exact track and strength is uncertain. Main
concern through for this entire system will be several rounds of
strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall, which poses a risk for
more flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies expected through the TAF
period with the main focus being timing of wind shift and gusts
which should max out from the north at around 20 kts during the
day Wednesday.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 040504
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Upper shortwave trof today moving over the state, embedded in the
larger upper wave.  Not much impact on sensible weather, with highs
rising toward 70 in many spots.  Expect clouds that have developed
with daytime heating to dissipate soon near sunset. Overnight lows
again fall into the 40s. Could see some fog in low spots, however
think there is enough wind with the next incoming system to keep
widespread fog from forming.  Some cooling with the next incoming
front that moves in through the morning and afternoon hours, but
think enough mixing and sunshine will bring highs up close to todays
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Wednesday night through Friday

Surface high builds into the plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday as temperatures return closer to normal. Clear skies during
the overnight periods cool temps down to the 40s with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s Thursday. Increased mixing from the
southwest up to 800 mb enhances the warm advection with 80s likely
for Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will continue through most of the day on
Saturday. The upper level ridge will push east as a broad upper
level trough across the four corners begins to eject across the
central plains Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple shortwaves will
eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Tuesday, bringing
on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the extended
period. BL moisture will be on the increase throughout the extended
period as a slow moving eastern United States trough finally ejects
into the Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to return to the plains.
Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture will be in place
Sunday afternoon for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies expected through the TAF
period with the main focus being timing of wind shift and gusts
which should max out from the north at around 20 kts during the
day Wednesday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg/Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032325
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Upper shortwave trof today moving over the state, embedded in the
larger upper wave.  Not much impact on sensible weather, with highs
rising toward 70 in many spots.  Expect clouds that have developed
with daytime heating to dissipate soon near sunset. Overnight lows
again fall into the 40s. Could see some fog in low spots, however
think there is enough wind with the next incoming system to keep
widespread fog from forming.  Some cooling with the next incoming
front that moves in through the morning and afternoon hours, but
think enough mixing and sunshine will bring highs up close to todays
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Wednesday night through Friday

Surface high builds into the plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday as temperatures return closer to normal. Clear skies during
the overnight periods cool temps down to the 40s with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s Thursday. Increased mixing from the
southwest up to 800 mb enhances the warm advection with 80s likely
for Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will continue through most of the day on
Saturday. The upper level ridge will push east as a broad upper
level trough across the four corners begins to eject across the
central plains Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple shortwaves will
eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Tuesday, bringing
on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the extended
period. BL moisture will be on the increase throughout the extended
period as a slow moving eastern United States trough finally ejects
into the Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to return to the plains.
Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture will be in place
Sunday afternoon for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
moves over TAF sites around 08Z with a shift out of the northwest.
A few gusts are possible, but most gusts should focus after 13Z
from 340-360 degrees and up to 20 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg/Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032325
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Upper shortwave trof today moving over the state, embedded in the
larger upper wave.  Not much impact on sensible weather, with highs
rising toward 70 in many spots.  Expect clouds that have developed
with daytime heating to dissipate soon near sunset. Overnight lows
again fall into the 40s. Could see some fog in low spots, however
think there is enough wind with the next incoming system to keep
widespread fog from forming.  Some cooling with the next incoming
front that moves in through the morning and afternoon hours, but
think enough mixing and sunshine will bring highs up close to todays
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Wednesday night through Friday

Surface high builds into the plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday as temperatures return closer to normal. Clear skies during
the overnight periods cool temps down to the 40s with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s Thursday. Increased mixing from the
southwest up to 800 mb enhances the warm advection with 80s likely
for Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will continue through most of the day on
Saturday. The upper level ridge will push east as a broad upper
level trough across the four corners begins to eject across the
central plains Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple shortwaves will
eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Tuesday, bringing
on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the extended
period. BL moisture will be on the increase throughout the extended
period as a slow moving eastern United States trough finally ejects
into the Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to return to the plains.
Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture will be in place
Sunday afternoon for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
moves over TAF sites around 08Z with a shift out of the northwest.
A few gusts are possible, but most gusts should focus after 13Z
from 340-360 degrees and up to 20 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg/Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch





000
FXUS63 KTOP 032013
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Upper shortwave trof today moving over the state, embedded in the
larger upper wave.  Not much impact on sensible weather, with highs
rising toward 70 in many spots.  Expect clouds that have developed
with daytime heating to dissipate soon near sunset. Overnight lows
again fall into the 40s. Could see some fog in low spots, however
think there is enough wind with the next incoming system to keep
widespread fog from forming.  Some cooling with the next incoming
front that moves in through the morning and afternoon hours, but
think enough mixing and sunshine will bring highs up close to todays
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Wednesday night through Friday

Surface high builds into the plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday as temperatures return closer to normal. Clear skies during
the overnight periods cool temps down to the 40s with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s Thursday. Increased mixing from the
southwest up to 800 mb enhances the warm advection with 80s likely
for Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will continue through most of the day on
Saturday. The upper level ridge will push east as a broad upper
level trough across the four corners begins to eject across the
central plains Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple shortwaves will
eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Tuesday, bringing
on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the extended
period. BL moisture will be on the increase throughout the extended
period as a slow moving eastern United States trough finally ejects
into the Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to return to the plains.
Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture will be in place
Sunday afternoon for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds becoming
northerly through tomorrow morning.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg/Prieto
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031729
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds becoming
northerly through tomorrow morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031729
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds becoming
northerly through tomorrow morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, the immediate hazard will be fog at KTOP and
reduced VIS at KMHK until around 13Z. Have not gone as low as
actual FG in the KTOP as conditions likely won`t persist long and
visually doesn`t appear that FG will have staying power for very
long. Otherwise, some gradual veering of winds through the day and
a weak cold frontal passage near the end of the period. No mention
of fog for tomorrow as winds are likely stronger than today from
the northwest.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 031126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, the immediate hazard will be fog at KTOP and
reduced VIS at KMHK until around 13Z. Have not gone as low as
actual FG in the KTOP as conditions likely won`t persist long and
visually doesn`t appear that FG will have staying power for very
long. Otherwise, some gradual veering of winds through the day and
a weak cold frontal passage near the end of the period. No mention
of fog for tomorrow as winds are likely stronger than today from
the northwest.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030757
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with scattered to broken low/mid-level clouds. Winds may be light
and variable at times overnight, but should prevail out of the
west and southwest on Tuesday.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030459
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Weak mid level perturbation this afternoon was noted tracking
southward through the central plains. Subsidence ahead of this wave
and behind the departing trough axis has helped to clear skies over
far northern Kansas where temperatures have recovered into the lower
60s. Further south, thicker cloud cover has held readings in the
50s.

The incoming wave is progged to impact western Kansas this evening,
keeping the CWA dry with lack of moisture observed through the
atmosphere. Lesser clouds through the day time on Tuesday will help
highs reach closer to normal values in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. Very weak lift from the NAM and WRF tries to develop a
hundredth of qpf at best along the weak frontal boundary by 00Z
Wednesday. Do not believe there is enough moisture below 750 mb to
have this reach the sfc so have kept a dry forecast for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Sensible weather remains generally quiet through the week and
early weekend. Cooler temperatures continue into Wed and Thurs as
upper flow continues nearly due north south and advects cooler air
southward. After a few days of highs in the 70s, as highly
amplified upper ridge translates overhead and becomes
southwesterly flow into the weekend, highs rise into the lower 80s
by Friday into Saturday. Latest runs of EC and GFS keep the
eastern upper lows progressing off to the east, allowing the upper
low over the Great Basin to move eastward through late weekend
into early next week. Will keep storm chances for Sunday and
Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures back into the 70s. With
moisture starting to return from the gulf and jet streak moving
over the area on Monday, will have to watch and see how the
pattern evolves for storm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with scattered to broken low/mid-level clouds. Winds may be light
and variable at times overnight, but should prevail out of the
west and southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030459
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Weak mid level perturbation this afternoon was noted tracking
southward through the central plains. Subsidence ahead of this wave
and behind the departing trough axis has helped to clear skies over
far northern Kansas where temperatures have recovered into the lower
60s. Further south, thicker cloud cover has held readings in the
50s.

The incoming wave is progged to impact western Kansas this evening,
keeping the CWA dry with lack of moisture observed through the
atmosphere. Lesser clouds through the day time on Tuesday will help
highs reach closer to normal values in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. Very weak lift from the NAM and WRF tries to develop a
hundredth of qpf at best along the weak frontal boundary by 00Z
Wednesday. Do not believe there is enough moisture below 750 mb to
have this reach the sfc so have kept a dry forecast for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Sensible weather remains generally quiet through the week and
early weekend. Cooler temperatures continue into Wed and Thurs as
upper flow continues nearly due north south and advects cooler air
southward. After a few days of highs in the 70s, as highly
amplified upper ridge translates overhead and becomes
southwesterly flow into the weekend, highs rise into the lower 80s
by Friday into Saturday. Latest runs of EC and GFS keep the
eastern upper lows progressing off to the east, allowing the upper
low over the Great Basin to move eastward through late weekend
into early next week. Will keep storm chances for Sunday and
Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures back into the 70s. With
moisture starting to return from the gulf and jet streak moving
over the area on Monday, will have to watch and see how the
pattern evolves for storm potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with scattered to broken low/mid-level clouds. Winds may be light
and variable at times overnight, but should prevail out of the
west and southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke





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