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000
FXUS63 KTOP 230439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Confidence in MVFR CIGS continues to be low as the MVFR CIGS progged
earlier have yet to develop. CIGS within the SHRA have remained
VFR and the only indications of restricted VSBY or CIGS is along
and behind the surface trough axis where there is some cooling
occurring. With guidance continuing to advertise MVFR CIGS through
the morning, will keep the forecast pretty much unchanged. Have
however backed off on CIGS below 2 KFT. With the lower res models
keeping the surface trough axis to the northwest of MHK, am
thinking that the forecast may be on the pessimistic side. However
if skies clear out and temps drop as the higher res solutions
would have, CIGS and VSBY could crash. This would be more likely
for MHK While TOP and FOE remain within the warm sector and
overcast mid level clouds preventing radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222333 CCA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mid morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters










000
FXUS63 KTOP 222308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mod morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mod morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850mb dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper hts remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
fcst to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850mb dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper hts remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
fcst to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. There may be
occasional gusts around 18 to 22 mph at TOP/FOE during mid day. A
band of showers will move through the taf sites later this evening
and overnight. There could be isolated thunder during this time
frame. Vis and or cigs may decrease after the rain towards the end of
the period at MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220809
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220429
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220429
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212239
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212239
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212017
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trof continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trof
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trof with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trof still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trof comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 211653
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 211653
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 210443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 210443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 202323
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the period.
Toward 10Z may see some MVFR to IFR vsbys at the terminals as calm
winds and clear skies are expected. Did mention IFR at TOP only
for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 202323
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the period.
Toward 10Z may see some MVFR to IFR vsbys at the terminals as calm
winds and clear skies are expected. Did mention IFR at TOP only
for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201953
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light northerly winds become
variable tonight as sfc high pressure shifts southeast through the
area. While sfc inversion is not as strong as previous morning,
clear skies and calm winds may develop ground fog aft 10Z. Began
mention with MVFR and if guidance continues to trend this way,
perhaps IFR or lower visibilities in the next updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201953
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light northerly winds become
variable tonight as sfc high pressure shifts southeast through the
area. While sfc inversion is not as strong as previous morning,
clear skies and calm winds may develop ground fog aft 10Z. Began
mention with MVFR and if guidance continues to trend this way,
perhaps IFR or lower visibilities in the next updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 201644
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Water vapor at 07z shows the most recent northwest flow shortwave
trough extending from the upper MS valley southwestward into the
central plains with good drying within subsidence region aloft
overspreading the county warning area (cwa) with clear skies in all
but the far southeast corner of the cwa. At the same time...surface
boundary is slowly working southeastward across the cwa with only
weak mixing along and ahead of it. This could lead to a brief window
of opportunity for patchy ground fog to form through sunrise across
portions of northeast and east central...although it is not expected
to be significant enough to warrant inserting into the forecast at
this time. Otherwise sunny skies and north to northeast winds
generally under 10 mph will be the rule. Although mixing will not be
deep...thermal fields across the cwa through 850 mb will be slightly
warmer than yesterday at peak heating...so expect highs to be as
warm or even slightly warmer than yesterday. Expecting highs to
range from near 71 in the Hiawatha vicinity to the middle 70s in
areas from Minneapolis to Garnett. With clear skies and light winds
tonight...cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in the favored
areas as temperatures cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level trough will move into the western US on Tuesday, then
move east across the plains Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The mild weather will continue on Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves east across the plains. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday night and begin to advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. The upper trough will
move into the northern and central high plains by late Wednesday
afternoon. A surface cold front will move into western KS Wednesday
afternoon and move east across the state during the night. As the upper
trough moves east into the central plains, stronger ascent ahead of
the H5 trough along with surface convergence ahead of the
approaching cold front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the western counties of the CWA late Wednesday
afternoon and spread east across the CWA during the night. Highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s with increasing clouds.

As the H5 trough shifts east into the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley by Thursday afternoon, the showers will end from west to east
across the CWA during the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will
begin to clear during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions by the end of the week
and into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the
central and southern plains. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light northerly winds become
variable tonight as sfc high pressure shifts southeast through the
area. While sfc inversion is not as strong as previous morning,
clear skies and calm winds may develop ground fog aft 10Z. Began
mention with MVFR and if guidance continues to trend this way,
perhaps IFR or lower visibilities in the next updates.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 201644
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Water vapor at 07z shows the most recent northwest flow shortwave
trough extending from the upper MS valley southwestward into the
central plains with good drying within subsidence region aloft
overspreading the county warning area (cwa) with clear skies in all
but the far southeast corner of the cwa. At the same time...surface
boundary is slowly working southeastward across the cwa with only
weak mixing along and ahead of it. This could lead to a brief window
of opportunity for patchy ground fog to form through sunrise across
portions of northeast and east central...although it is not expected
to be significant enough to warrant inserting into the forecast at
this time. Otherwise sunny skies and north to northeast winds
generally under 10 mph will be the rule. Although mixing will not be
deep...thermal fields across the cwa through 850 mb will be slightly
warmer than yesterday at peak heating...so expect highs to be as
warm or even slightly warmer than yesterday. Expecting highs to
range from near 71 in the Hiawatha vicinity to the middle 70s in
areas from Minneapolis to Garnett. With clear skies and light winds
tonight...cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in the favored
areas as temperatures cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level trough will move into the western US on Tuesday, then
move east across the plains Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The mild weather will continue on Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves east across the plains. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday night and begin to advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. The upper trough will
move into the northern and central high plains by late Wednesday
afternoon. A surface cold front will move into western KS Wednesday
afternoon and move east across the state during the night. As the upper
trough moves east into the central plains, stronger ascent ahead of
the H5 trough along with surface convergence ahead of the
approaching cold front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the western counties of the CWA late Wednesday
afternoon and spread east across the CWA during the night. Highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s with increasing clouds.

As the H5 trough shifts east into the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley by Thursday afternoon, the showers will end from west to east
across the CWA during the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will
begin to clear during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions by the end of the week
and into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the
central and southern plains. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as light northerly winds become
variable tonight as sfc high pressure shifts southeast through the
area. While sfc inversion is not as strong as previous morning,
clear skies and calm winds may develop ground fog aft 10Z. Began
mention with MVFR and if guidance continues to trend this way,
perhaps IFR or lower visibilities in the next updates.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen









000
FXUS63 KTOP 201133 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Water vapor at 07z shows the most recent northwest flow shortwave
trough extending from the upper MS valley southwestward into the
central plains with good drying within subsidence region aloft
overspreading the county warning area (cwa) with clear skies in all
but the far southeast corner of the cwa. At the same time...surface
boundary is slowly working southeastward across the cwa with only
weak mixing along and ahead of it. This could lead to a brief window
of opportunity for patchy ground fog to form through sunrise across
portions of northeast and east central...although it is not expected
to be significant enough to warrant inserting into the forecast at
this time. Otherwise sunny skies and north to northeast winds
generally under 10 mph will be the rule. Although mixing will not be
deep...thermal fields across the cwa through 850 mb will be slightly
warmer than yesterday at peak heating...so expect highs to be as
warm or even slightly warmer than yesterday. Expecting highs to
range from near 71 in the Hiawatha vicinity to the middle 70s in
areas from Minneapolis to Garnett. With clear skies and light winds
tonight...cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in the favored
areas as temperatures cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level trough will move into the western US on Tuesday, then
move east across the plains Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The mild weather will continue on Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves east across the plains. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday night and begin to advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. The upper trough will
move into the northern and central high plains by late Wednesday
afternoon. A surface cold front will move into western KS Wednesday
afternoon and move east across the state during the night. As the upper
trough moves east into the central plains, stronger ascent ahead of
the H5 trough along with surface convergence ahead of the
approaching cold front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the western counties of the CWA late Wednesday
afternoon and spread east across the CWA during the night. Highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s with increasing clouds.

As the H5 trough shifts east into the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley by Thursday afternoon, the showers will end from west to east
across the CWA during the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will
begin to clear during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions by the end of the week
and into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the
central and southern plains. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IFR/LIFR vsbys in fog will become vfr by 14z with light/calm winds
becoming north/northeasterly but at speeds less than 9 kts.
Winds will veer more easterly 00Z/21 but at speeds less than 5 kts.
Some potential for patchy fog again between 09z-12z/21...although
confidence remains too low this far out to insert into terminal fcsts
at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200839
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Water vapor at 07z shows the most recent northwest flow shortwave
trough extending from the upper MS valley southwestward into the
central plains with good drying within subsidence region aloft
overspreading the county warning area (cwa) with clear skies in all
but the far southeast corner of the cwa. At the same time...surface
boundary is slowly working southeastward across the cwa with only
weak mixing along and ahead of it. This could lead to a brief window
of opportunity for patchy ground fog to form through sunrise across
portions of northeast and east central...although it is not expected
to be significant enough to warrant inserting into the forecast at
this time. Otherwise sunny skies and north to northeast winds
generally under 10 mph will be the rule. Although mixing will not be
deep...thermal fields across the cwa through 850 mb will be slightly
warmer than yesterday at peak heating...so expect highs to be as
warm or even slightly warmer than yesterday. Expecting highs to
range from near 71 in the Hiawatha vicinity to the middle 70s in
areas from Minneapolis to Garnett. With clear skies and light winds
tonight...cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in the favored
areas as temperatures cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level trough will move into the western US on Tuesday, then
move east across the plains Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The mild weather will continue on Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves east across the plains. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday night and begin to advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. The upper trough will
move into the northern and central high plains by late Wednesday
afternoon. A surface cold front will move into western KS Wednesday
afternoon and move east across the state during the night. As the upper
trough moves east into the central plains, stronger ascent ahead of
the H5 trough along with surface convergence ahead of the
approaching cold front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the western counties of the CWA late Wednesday
afternoon and spread east across the CWA during the night. Highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s with increasing clouds.

As the H5 trough shifts east into the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley by Thursday afternoon, the showers will end from west to east
across the CWA during the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will
begin to clear during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions by the end of the week
and into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the
central and southern plains. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will be light overnight, veering from southwest to the
northeast this morning as a weak boundary tracks eastward across the
area. Expect only some low to mid-level clouds with this passing
boundary.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200839
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Water vapor at 07z shows the most recent northwest flow shortwave
trough extending from the upper MS valley southwestward into the
central plains with good drying within subsidence region aloft
overspreading the county warning area (cwa) with clear skies in all
but the far southeast corner of the cwa. At the same time...surface
boundary is slowly working southeastward across the cwa with only
weak mixing along and ahead of it. This could lead to a brief window
of opportunity for patchy ground fog to form through sunrise across
portions of northeast and east central...although it is not expected
to be significant enough to warrant inserting into the forecast at
this time. Otherwise sunny skies and north to northeast winds
generally under 10 mph will be the rule. Although mixing will not be
deep...thermal fields across the cwa through 850 mb will be slightly
warmer than yesterday at peak heating...so expect highs to be as
warm or even slightly warmer than yesterday. Expecting highs to
range from near 71 in the Hiawatha vicinity to the middle 70s in
areas from Minneapolis to Garnett. With clear skies and light winds
tonight...cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in the favored
areas as temperatures cool into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

An upper level trough will move into the western US on Tuesday, then
move east across the plains Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The mild weather will continue on Tuesday as an upper level ridge
moves east across the plains. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s.

Southerly winds will increase Tuesday night and begin to advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. The upper trough will
move into the northern and central high plains by late Wednesday
afternoon. A surface cold front will move into western KS Wednesday
afternoon and move east across the state during the night. As the upper
trough moves east into the central plains, stronger ascent ahead of
the H5 trough along with surface convergence ahead of the
approaching cold front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the western counties of the CWA late Wednesday
afternoon and spread east across the CWA during the night. Highs on
Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 70s with increasing clouds.

As the H5 trough shifts east into the upper Midwest and mid MS river
valley by Thursday afternoon, the showers will end from west to east
across the CWA during the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will
begin to clear during the afternoon hours of Thursday. Thursday will
be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Expect mild temperatures and dry conditions by the end of the week
and into the weekend as an upper level ridge builds east across the
central and southern plains. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will be light overnight, veering from southwest to the
northeast this morning as a weak boundary tracks eastward across the
area. Expect only some low to mid-level clouds with this passing
boundary.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke








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