Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KTOP 030456
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF. PRIMARY WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT SOME VARIATION IS
POSSIBLE. TS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 030456
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF. PRIMARY WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT SOME VARIATION IS
POSSIBLE. TS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR STORMS OVER NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AS THEY MAY MOVE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH...OR
PERHAPS EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAF SITES. MOST LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 022340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR STORMS OVER NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AS THEY MAY MOVE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH...OR
PERHAPS EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAF SITES. MOST LIKELY TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 022034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 022034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 20Z
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AND TROUGH IN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MAIN WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE A WEAK RIPPLE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
CENTRAL TO EAST NEBRASKA THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL AVERAGE AROUND 25-30 KTS WITH SBCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MODELS DIFFER HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, BUT LOOKS TO EXTEND
FROM A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 18Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE UNCAPPED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS
WEAK. HOWEVER EXPECT POOLING OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE MID
90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS FAR NORTHEAST KS NEAR NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY HELP SET OFF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WOULDN`T
EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY
AND WEAK FORCING. OTHER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA
WOULD BE A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY STREAM OF A SPLIT
FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT THAT WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
ACROSS EASTERN KS TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WHERE IN
EASTERN KS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD FALL. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION...HAVE BLANKETED AREA WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
EASTERN KS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA TO SET OFF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. GFS HAS STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME AND THEREFORE STRONGER ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT GIVEN OTHER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.

DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY...ALL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A RECOGNIZABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MODELS ALSO THEN TEND TO AGREE
WITH A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

GIVEN QUICK SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS AND PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAINLY 80S FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IF ANY, SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 021110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 021110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 020853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN IA, NE, AND MO. THE ONLY AREA THIS MORNING THAT HAS A CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FAR NORTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW AS OF NOW. LATER TODAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH NE
AND EVENTUALLY KS. BY MID DAY THE FRONT SHOULD BISECT NE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WELL OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EITHER AN ISOLATED STORM AND
OR OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A
DECENT CAP IN PLACE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
OR DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THINK MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM IN THE EVENING. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. A MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE 06Z
BESIDES THE POSSIBLE ROUGE STORM OR OUTFLOW. AFTER 06Z THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN KS AND THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF IN THE
AREA IS THE GFS, WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE FASTEST BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH. THE NAM DOESNT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IT GENERATES IS ELEVATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
WORDING. ENERGY NOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/RAINFALL TUES SO WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHEST
POPS THEN. BY WEDS ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SD WHICH COULD FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE
DAY ALBEIT WITH LESS COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TUES GIVEN POSITION
OF WAVE FURTHER NORTH. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURS IT IS FCST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST 2 MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS WEEK ON
TUES AND AGAIN LATER THURS/FRI BEFORE COOLER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF DRY SPELL BY FRI/SAT. SEVERE CHCS SHOULD EXIST GIVEN
EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE SO WILL NOT
HIT RISK TOO HARD AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN THE EVENING.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 020448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN THE EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 020448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN THE EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 020019
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
719 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION AND NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR CNK AND
ALSO EMP IN AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. A FEW MORE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AREA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-35 AND WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHING WELL FORMED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WEST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, THE MID
LEVELS HAVE VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DRY AIR. VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF CB NEAR EMP/UKL ARE INDICATIVE OF THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE MID LEVEL BUOYANCY AND EXPECT ANY FURTHER TS DEVELOPMENT TO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE IN ANY WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 020019
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
719 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION AND NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP NEAR CNK AND
ALSO EMP IN AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. A FEW MORE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AREA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-35 AND WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHING WELL FORMED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WEST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, THE MID
LEVELS HAVE VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH DRY AIR. VISUAL
APPEARANCE OF CB NEAR EMP/UKL ARE INDICATIVE OF THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE MID LEVEL BUOYANCY AND EXPECT ANY FURTHER TS DEVELOPMENT TO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE IN ANY WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 012026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 012026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 012026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011710
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011710
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011710
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011710
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011215
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011215
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011215
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
715 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. ALSO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND NOSE INTO THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND OR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 011127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 010804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
GRADUALLY WASHING OUT DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING RELATIVELY
WEAK. THE LACK OF FORCING MAY PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND OR ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE
OF THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SPARKED STORMS IN CENTRAL NE,
WHICH ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THEREFORE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REACHING FAR NORTHERN KS. LATER
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SD AND NE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS AND A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. I THINK MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY LATER TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN
KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER EASTERN NE A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALSO, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS DEVELOPING
A STORM COMPLEX IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEND AN
OUTFLOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
MATERIALIZE THEN STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OF
VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION INTO
IOWA SUNDAY MORNING GETS A SOUTHERLY PUSH FROM INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. EC AND NAM SUGGEST CWA IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO STAY OUT OF
STORM CHANCES...WHILE GFS POPS UP LINE OF LATE DAY STORMS ON THE
KS/NE BORDER. CAP IS WEAK...BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS OUTFLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN /ESPECIALLY BEHIND A DEPARTING WAVE/ TO
GET CONVECTION STARTED...AND WILL KEEP LOW END SILENT POP FOR
SUNDAY. AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES SET UP BETTER MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS UPPER TROF ROTATES ENERGY OVER THE MID
LEVEL FRONT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATER TIMING IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY AND SOME AGREEMENT FOR SOME LOW END QPF
FOR EASTERN KS FROM THIS FEATURE. STILL NOTEWORTHY THAT SHORTWAVE
TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CTRL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GET PRETTY WARM...UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT DEWPOINTS AT THIS TIME
FORECAST TO HOLD LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE 100
MARK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY START TO SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. EC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES AND IS A COOLER FORECAST...HARD TO PICK ONE SOLUTION
OVER THE OTHER THIS FAR OUT. KEPT A BLEND OF PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT GIVEN SOME SLOWER SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES INDEED MAKE IT INTO NE KS BY LATE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 010452
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 010452
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010452
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARY
AT TIMES BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT. STORMS TO THE NORTH ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH TAF SITES BUT
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY SHOULD THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VARY
AT TIMES BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT. STORMS TO THE NORTH ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH TAF SITES BUT
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY SHOULD THEY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH





000
FXUS63 KTOP 312258
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 312258
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312258
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE FORECAST...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...

ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.  BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE.  WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.  HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 311741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 311741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53





000
FXUS63 KTOP 311741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT TO ONE OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT TO ONE OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 311110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT TO ONE OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311110
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT TO ONE OF THE TAF
SITES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...SANDERS





000
FXUS63 KTOP 310750
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE 06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY, SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310750
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MO
AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS
COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING
STORMS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NE LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
ANY DISCERNIBLE FEATURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND THEREFORE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENT
FORCING AFTER THAT. DURING THE EVENING CAPE COULD APPROACH 2000-3000
J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THESE STORMS IF ANY COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HAVE HELD ON TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CROSSES HIGH PLAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND COULD PROPAGATE PRECIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. ALSO SEE A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED
LIFTING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND WILL BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS FOR
ISOLD POP THAT TIME PERIOD.

SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE WAVE...AND WOULD MAKE FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONSIDERING SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE AND BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LLJ
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FOCUSES CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SHORTWAVE ROLLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE. WHILE A LESS LIKELY PATTERN GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IT IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT...IT SHOWS UP IN BOTH EC AND GFS
AND IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN WOULD ANTICIPATE A BREAK
BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN SYSTEMS SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NO ONE SINGLE DAY APPEARS TO BE AN ALL DAY WASHOUT...BUT EXTENDED
FORECAST IS FULL OF ISOLD TO SCT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN ALL OF THE
ABOVE. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...THEY RISE FROM LOW 90S TO UPPER 90S
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE HOPEFULLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE 06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY, SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SANDERS
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities