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000
FXUS63 KTOP 240449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions. Any isolated thunderstorms during morning
hours will remain north of the terminals. Winds will become
southeast at 8 to 12 KTS with higher gusts after 14Z and continue
through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 232024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 820 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Amended KMHK for cluster of TSRA that has managed to push
southeast just north and west of KMHK. Location of activity is
close enough to include mention of light TSRA through 1430Z. Gust
front ahead of convection will allow for VRB winds near 14 kts
sustained. Occasional gusts near 25 kts are expected through 1430Z
before activity weakens. Thereafter, cigs remain VFR through the
period. Winds will prevail out of the northeast today before
veering to the southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the
surface high pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 820 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Amended KMHK for cluster of TSRA that has managed to push
southeast just north and west of KMHK. Location of activity is
close enough to include mention of light TSRA through 1430Z. Gust
front ahead of convection will allow for VRB winds near 14 kts
sustained. Occasional gusts near 25 kts are expected through 1430Z
before activity weakens. Thereafter, cigs remain VFR through the
period. Winds will prevail out of the northeast today before
veering to the southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the
surface high pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231121
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should remain VFR through the period. Winds
will prevail out of the northeast today before veering to the
southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the surface high
pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231121
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should remain VFR through the period. Winds
will prevail out of the northeast today before veering to the
southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the surface high
pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. KTOP may see some
patchy ground fog develop around sunrise. The NAM shows BKN MVFR
ceilings at the terminals from 11Z through 14Z...but most
mesoscale models do not.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan









000
FXUS63 KTOP 230443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. KTOP may see some
patchy ground fog develop around sunrise. The NAM shows BKN MVFR
ceilings at the terminals from 11Z through 14Z...but most
mesoscale models do not.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 230443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. KTOP may see some
patchy ground fog develop around sunrise. The NAM shows BKN MVFR
ceilings at the terminals from 11Z through 14Z...but most
mesoscale models do not.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222338
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

An isolated storm may develop this evening along or north of the
surface cold front. I am not confident enough to insert VCTS in
TAFS. Otherwise, expect a wind shift at the terminals to the
north-northeast this evening and VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222338
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

An isolated storm may develop this evening along or north of the
surface cold front. I am not confident enough to insert VCTS in
TAFS. Otherwise, expect a wind shift at the terminals to the
north-northeast this evening and VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222040
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A front will approach TAF sites during the 3 hour window
surrounding 00Z with the most likely timing around 01Z. Before the
front, expect VFR with west southwest winds. Isolated TS are
expected to develop near the front between 22Z and 02Z and may
approach TAF sites. If storms do approach TAF sites, expect
localized downbursts with very strong winds. Winds then turn out
of the north to northeast, mainly less than 10 kts. With drier air
moving in, feel that vis restrictions are not likely on Wed
morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 222040
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

There are two key features being carefully watched this afternoon.
The first is a cold front extending at 3 PM from near Belleville to
just north of Falls City NE, with slow but steady southward
progression. The second is a weak short wave trough that is tracking
into eastern NE & KS. The trough axis seems to extend from just west
of Omaha to near Concordia judging by subsidence and dissipation of
mid cloud deck steadily progressing southeast. Another somewhat
interesting feature is a pre-frontal trough extending from near St
Joseph to Manhattan to Great Bend with weak low level convergence
seemingly maximized in central KS where some cumulus has recently
bubbled up.

Ahead of the main cold front, temperatures will remain very hot well
into the evening. Dewpoints have mixed out into the mid 60s to lower
70s (west to east gradient) which has kept heat indices in the 103
to 111 range so far with a bit of an increase still possible.
Immediately behind the front is a band of moisture pooling with
dewpoints back into the middle 70s. So, while the temperatures
decrease a bit with the front, the heat index remains nearly the
same or even increases.

Model guidance remains split on the topic, but isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to develop along the surface front...with
a smaller chance of development near the pre-frontal trough. The
favored timing will be immediately in advance of the short wave
trough axis. While the trough is very weak, the weak subsidence in
the wake of the trough seems that it will be too much for the weak
low level forcing along the front to overcome. Its a delicate
convective balancing act between multiple factors this afternoon but
still think a few storms will develop. Wind shear is weak,
instability is moderate to strong, and the low level lapse rates are
very steep over a significant depth with a max theta-e difference of
30 to 40. This environment favors relatively short lived individual
storms with very strong cold pools and potentially strong
downbursts. There is a very small potential for hail due to pockets
of very strong instability but damaging winds will be the main
hazard and they should be fairly localized to the storm downdrafts.
At this point, a bit unsure how strong a cell will have to be to
support severe winds, but it could be a situation where fairly weak
reflectivity could support 60 mph downbursts.

There is some indication that another weak short wave trough will
move out of NW Nebraska into north central KS, and could set off
additional storms during the early morning hours. Expect this
activity to be scattered and non-severe if it develops. The cold
front will continue to push south overnight into Wednesday, with a
cooler and drier airmass gradually filtering in. Highs on Wednesday
will be a good 10 degrees cooler with a light northeast breeze and
lower dewpoints.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

By Wednesday evening northeast KS will be situated down stream of
the upper level ridge axis as several shortwaves are forecast to
ride along the northern periphery. The first wave drops down on
Thursday and early Friday morning bringing a slight chance for
precip to northeast KS through weak isentropic lift. The ECMWF
has been consistent in taking a slightly stronger wave through the
Midwest, and keeping this lift northeast of the area. Temperatures
for Thursday appear to be closer to normal with highs in the mid
80s to mid 90s. On Friday a boundary sags south through the area
although we remain mostly dry until it hangs up somewhere across
eastern KS. The GFS is suggesting another weak wave ejects from
the central Rockies and bisects the front Friday night causing
slight chances in precip across the area. Ahead the front temps
heat up again Friday afternoon reaching the mid 90s to near 100
especially in central KS. Towards the end of the weekend the deep
upper level low is still forecast to dig into the Great Lakes
region. A secondary front and additional mid level support arrives
on Sunday, although there are still timing differences among the
models. Half of the GFS ensembles agree with the ECMWF and the slower
solution, therefore have chances for both Saturday night and
during the day Sunday to account for these differences. High
pressure builds in behind the front on Monday and ushers in
another unseasonably cool air mass for a good portion of early
next week. The longevity of this air all depends on how long the
upper low spins over the Great Lakes keeping the upper ridge
suppressed over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A front will approach TAF sites during the 3 hour window
surrounding 00Z with the most likely timing around 01Z. Before the
front, expect VFR with west southwest winds. Isolated TS are
expected to develop near the front between 22Z and 02Z and may
approach TAF sites. If storms do approach TAF sites, expect
localized downbursts with very strong winds. Winds then turn out
of the north to northeast, mainly less than 10 kts. With drier air
moving in, feel that vis restrictions are not likely on Wed
morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to near-term convective and heat discussion, and
aviation forecast discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Heat: Temperatures have increased much more rapidly today than on
Monday, as would have been expected after the very warm start to
the day. Dewpoints have been quite high in the east, with several
observations in the 74 to 76 range through mid day. Winds also
have a more westerly component today with the moisture a bit
shallower as evidenced by the morning TOP RAOB. So, while the
temperatures will almost certainly be hotter today, the dewpoints
are expected to mix into the middle to upper 60s from west to
east, with only far northern and eastern KS holding in the lower
70s by this afternoon. The forecast continues to have max heat
index values in the 108 to 112 range...flirting with the criteria
for an excessive heat warning. However, with the distinct
possibility (and expectation) for a drop off in dewpoints this
afternoon will maintain the "upper end" heat advisory. Should note
though that if dewpoints do not drop as much as expected, could
easily have a few sites in the 115 range late today.

Thunderstorms: Model guidance is very diverse regarding potential
thunderstorm development this afternoon evening. It seems that the
diversity is related to the very fine atmospheric balance that
will be in place by this afternoon. The deeply mixed but still
relatively moist boundary layer ahead of the front will lead to a
very unstable atmosphere, but parcels will need to be lifted
through quite a depth to reach the LFC. This will be highly
dependent upon the strength of the front, and also any additional
ascent that can be lended by a weak short wave trough moving out
of central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. If the trough axis is
too quick in moving through northern KS, it could add subsidence
to the frontal zone and reduce precip chances. Also, while the
frontal zone left over from this morning near the Nebraska border
has little to no convergence, observations in east central
Nebraska indicate that a reinforcing front is now surging south
with north winds gusting to around 20 kts. This could provide the
necessary deeper convergence to initiate storms. All of this said,
expect a few thunderstorms to develop along the frontal zone in
far northern KS between 4 and 6 PM, and these should move/develop
to the east southeast through 8 PM. How long they persist is in
question, but given the thermodynamic setup, expect ANY storm with
even a moderate updraft to produce strong wind gusts. Stronger
storms could produce rather intense but localized wind gusts with
downbursts. So despite strong enough shear/instability parameters
for supercell development, expect it to be quite difficult to have
persistent supercell structures due to the strong downbursts and
cold pools. This should reduce the severe hail threat to only
those storms that can persist with mid level rotation...and if
hail develops would see a good chance for it to be wind driven.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A front will approach TAF sites during the 3 hour window
surrounding 00Z with the most likely timing around 01Z. Before the
front, expect VFR with west southwest winds. Isolated TS are
expected to develop near the front between 22Z and 02Z and may
approach TAF sites. If storms do approach TAF sites, expect
localized downbursts with very strong winds. Winds then turn out
of the north to northeast, mainly less than 10 kts. With drier air
moving in, feel that vis restrictions are not likely on Wed
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to near-term convective and heat discussion, and
aviation forecast discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Heat: Temperatures have increased much more rapidly today than on
Monday, as would have been expected after the very warm start to
the day. Dewpoints have been quite high in the east, with several
observations in the 74 to 76 range through mid day. Winds also
have a more westerly component today with the moisture a bit
shallower as evidenced by the morning TOP RAOB. So, while the
temperatures will almost certainly be hotter today, the dewpoints
are expected to mix into the middle to upper 60s from west to
east, with only far northern and eastern KS holding in the lower
70s by this afternoon. The forecast continues to have max heat
index values in the 108 to 112 range...flirting with the criteria
for an excessive heat warning. However, with the distinct
possibility (and expectation) for a drop off in dewpoints this
afternoon will maintain the "upper end" heat advisory. Should note
though that if dewpoints do not drop as much as expected, could
easily have a few sites in the 115 range late today.

Thunderstorms: Model guidance is very diverse regarding potential
thunderstorm development this afternoon evening. It seems that the
diversity is related to the very fine atmospheric balance that
will be in place by this afternoon. The deeply mixed but still
relatively moist boundary layer ahead of the front will lead to a
very unstable atmosphere, but parcels will need to be lifted
through quite a depth to reach the LFC. This will be highly
dependent upon the strength of the front, and also any additional
ascent that can be lended by a weak short wave trough moving out
of central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. If the trough axis is
too quick in moving through northern KS, it could add subsidence
to the frontal zone and reduce precip chances. Also, while the
frontal zone left over from this morning near the Nebraska border
has little to no convergence, observations in east central
Nebraska indicate that a reinforcing front is now surging south
with north winds gusting to around 20 kts. This could provide the
necessary deeper convergence to initiate storms. All of this said,
expect a few thunderstorms to develop along the frontal zone in
far northern KS between 4 and 6 PM, and these should move/develop
to the east southeast through 8 PM. How long they persist is in
question, but given the thermodynamic setup, expect ANY storm with
even a moderate updraft to produce strong wind gusts. Stronger
storms could produce rather intense but localized wind gusts with
downbursts. So despite strong enough shear/instability parameters
for supercell development, expect it to be quite difficult to have
persistent supercell structures due to the strong downbursts and
cold pools. This should reduce the severe hail threat to only
those storms that can persist with mid level rotation...and if
hail develops would see a good chance for it to be wind driven.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A front will approach TAF sites during the 3 hour window
surrounding 00Z with the most likely timing around 01Z. Before the
front, expect VFR with west southwest winds. Isolated TS are
expected to develop near the front between 22Z and 02Z and may
approach TAF sites. If storms do approach TAF sites, expect
localized downbursts with very strong winds. Winds then turn out
of the north to northeast, mainly less than 10 kts. With drier air
moving in, feel that vis restrictions are not likely on Wed
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 221137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Southwesterly winds will veer to the north tonight as a cold front
tracks southward over the region. There is the potential for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop behind this front
late this afternoon through this evening, however there is still a
great deal of uncertainty in the timing and location of any of these
storms. At this time, have just included a mention at KTOP/KFOE and
will adjust as needed with future updates.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Southwesterly winds will veer to the north tonight as a cold front
tracks southward over the region. There is the potential for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop behind this front
late this afternoon through this evening, however there is still a
great deal of uncertainty in the timing and location of any of these
storms. At this time, have just included a mention at KTOP/KFOE and
will adjust as needed with future updates.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Vfr conditions will persist through the fcst period with only
sct-bkn mid/high clouds expected. Any convection near front towards
the end of the fcst period is expected to remain to the north of the
terminals or be too isolated to warrant inserting thunder into the
TAF forecasts. South winds overnight will slowly veer ahead of the
approaching front beyond 15z...but at speeds generally 12 kts or
less...then become light north/northeast with the front aft 00z/23.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed a broad mid-level ridge
stretched across the Southern Rockies and the Southern and Central
Plains, with a modest embedded shortwave skimming eastward along the
Canadian/U.S. border toward the Great Lakes region. An area of
surface low pressure was associated with this shortwave, with a cold
front across Minnesota extending southwest into far northern
Nebraska this morning. With the region wedged between this
approaching surface trough and surface high pressure over the
southeastern U.S., southerly winds prevailed overnight with high
clouds streaming over the southern two-thirds of the forecast area.
As a result, overnight temperatures remained mild in the mid/upper
70s. A very weak embedded shortwave was noted across southeast
Nebraska/southwest Iowa, which helped to develop a few spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning just north of
the forecast area.

Another very warm day is expected today as we will be starting the
day already with mild conditions and model soundings show deep
mixing occurring through this afternoon. The strong shortwave to the
north will strengthen into a more well-defined mid-level trough over
the Great Lakes region today. This deepening trough combined with
advancing surface high pressure behind the shortwave over the
Northern Plains will help to push the cold front southward toward
the area. Models are in pretty good agreement in having the front
situated near the Nebraska/Kansas border between 16z-18z. The front
should slowly sink southward, bisecting the forecast area from west
to east by early this evening and advancing south of the area early
Wednesday morning. Winds look to be a bit slow in veering to the
north behind the front this afternoon across far northern Kansas, so
expect high temperatures to reach into the mid 90s to low 100s
across the entire forecast area. While much of the region should see
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the models are in good agreement in
low-level moisture mixing out strongly today across portions of
north central and central Kansas by this afternoon. However, feel
that the models may be a bit too aggressive in dropping dewpoints
into the low/mid 60s, so only trended with dewpoints dropping into
the mid/upper 60s across the far southwest corner of the forecast
area. Also expect increased low-level moisture across far northern
Kansas behind the frontal passage this afternoon, so should see
rising dewpoints over this area. Will need to monitor these
conditions closely today as they will have an impact on heat
indices. At this time, expect heat indices to rise into the 105 to
110 degree range this afternoon, so the existing Heat Advisory will
remain unchanged for today.

The next area of focus is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front late this
afternoon through tonight. Models continue to vary greatly in
whether or not they think storms will even be able to develop. Model
soundings show that any storms that develop will likely be
high-based. The environment will need to be able to overcome the
modest CIN in place across the region and be able to lift parcels
through the deep mixing layer to tap into the 3000-4000+ J/kg of
CAPE aloft. In general, 0-6km bulk shear values are fairly weak but
may reach upwards of 25-35kts. With the notable inverted-V
soundings, damaging winds will be the primary threat with any storms
that develop and cannot rule out some marginally-large hail. The
models that are picking up on this potential for post-frontal storms
have scattered activity developing across far northern Kansas by
early evening and advancing southeastward. Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible overnight as an embedded
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Wednesday morning the cold front should be across southern Kansas
with some post frontal precipitation as far north as east central
Kansas. Have left small chances of precipitation in the morning then
dry for the afternoon hours. Cooler temperatures are also expected
on Wednesday, generally near our normal around 90 for late July.

Temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees cooler on Thursday
with warmest temperatures toward central Kansas in the nose of the
thermal axis.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday night along
and east of a warm front moving across central and eastern portions
of Nebraska and Kansas. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible in
the waa regime/isentropic lift along with some upper support from a
weak shortwave. The precipitation may linger in the far east Friday
morning.

For the weekend a cold front is expected to move through the area
slowly keeping a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday evening. Models show the upper ridge moving
southwest as an upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into
the eastern states with northwest flow aloft redeveloping across the
Central Plains. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the
upper level forcing and have kept precipitation chances low. Cooler
temperatures are expected for Monday as high pressure builds into
eastern Kansas from the north as the upper trough deepens in the
eastern CONUS and upper ridge builds over the Rockies and west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Vfr conditions will persist through the fcst period with only
sct-bkn mid/high clouds expected. Any convection near front towards
the end of the fcst period is expected to remain to the north of the
terminals or be too isolated to warrant inserting thunder into the
TAF forecasts. South winds overnight will slowly veer ahead of the
approaching front beyond 15z...but at speeds generally 12 kts or
less...then become light north/northeast with the front aft 00z/23.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today/Tonight:
It has been as hot as advertised today, but what has been a little
bit of a surprise is that dewpoints held 1-3 degrees warmer than a
lot of model guidance had suggested. Looking upstream, the source
region of our low level airmass in central OK is characterized by mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. The morning TOP sounding also indicated that
the moisture was fairly deep with the air not notably drier until
above 850 hPa. The result has been heat indices in the 103 to 112
range at mid afternoon with the expectation to hold at that level or
increase slightly yet this evening. A breeze should be maintained
through the night and temperatures will be slow to cool. Have lows
in the upper 70s, but some locales may not fall out of the 80s. This
offers little to no relief even overnight for exposed people and
animals. In terms of precipitation, there remains a very small
chance for one or two storms to move out of western KS into parts of
north central KS late today. The environment is not particularly
supportive of longer lived convection and there is a weak cap in
place with little to no forcing. So, have not mentioned
thunderstorms in the forecast. If a storm manages to develop over
north central KS, isolated damaging winds would be possible given a
very deep layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates.

Tuesday:
The day will begin warmer than Monday and will quickly warm into the
90s. Model guidance is once again aggressively mixing out the low
level moisture with some guidance taking dewpoints into the lower
60s and temperatures to near 110. This seems quite unlikely although
the moisture profile does appear a bit shallower on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will be drifting into northern KS during
the afternoon. Immediately ahead of this front, expect an area of
hotter temperatures, and immediately behind the front expect
substantial moisture pooling with dewpoints increasing to the mid
70s. All told, the heat index should be a wash whether temperatures
are warmer/cooler as the dewpoints will respond accordingly
lower/higher. Current heat index forecast is for a range of 104 to
112. This would suggest some potential for an excessive heat
warning, but will hold off at this time given just a bit of
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints will mix out.

As the cold front enters northern KS late in the afternoon, it
should be entering a very unstable airmass with 25-35 kts of deep
layer shear as well. The main question is whether the front will be
deep enough or strong enough to sufficiently force parcels through
the very deep mixed layer. Currently believe that isolated storms
will indeed develop, likely immediately behind the surface front.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for localize
damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. Any afternoon
activity should be isolated, and perhaps more focused during the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

By Tuesday evening the front should be located somewhere along or
just north of the interstate 70 corridor according to the latest
model guidance. The cap still appears to be the limited factor
heading into the evening hours. This inhibition could be eliminated
depending on how much moisture pools behind the front and or the
lift is strong enough to overcome. Isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat associated any thunderstorms. The
chances for precip, which remains scattered, will continue to sag
south with the front through out the night. By morning the front
should push south of the area, and any lingering precip would
reside across portions of east central KS. On Wednesday temps cool
back to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, while drier air
advects southward. High pressure settles over northeast KS through
Thursday night. Early Friday morning precip chances vary with
regards to the models with the ECMWF keeping the area dry and the
GFS developing showers ahead of a front pushing through the
region. Not many changes were made to the extended forecast as the
front hangs around for the weekend keeping the chances for showers
and storms. Then strong upper level low still appears to drop into
the Great Lakes region bringing a secondary front and additional
cool air back southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Vfr conditions will persist through the fcst period with only
sct-bkn mid/high clouds expected. Any convection near front towards
the end of the fcst period is expected to remain to the north of the
terminals or be too isolated to warrant inserting thunder into the
TAF forecasts. South winds overnight will slowly veer ahead of the
approaching front beyond 15z...but at speeds generally 12 kts or
less...then become light north/northeast with the front aft 00z/23.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212349 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today/Tonight:
It has been as hot as advertised today, but what has been a little
bit of a surprise is that dewpoints held 1-3 degrees warmer than a
lot of model guidance had suggested. Looking upstream, the source
region of our low level airmass in central OK is characterized by mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. The morning TOP sounding also indicated that
the moisture was fairly deep with the air not notably drier until
above 850 hPa. The result has been heat indices in the 103 to 112
range at mid afternoon with the expectation to hold at that level or
increase slightly yet this evening. A breeze should be maintained
through the night and temperatures will be slow to cool. Have lows
in the upper 70s, but some locales may not fall out of the 80s. This
offers little to no relief even overnight for exposed people and
animals. In terms of precipitation, there remains a very small
chance for one or two storms to move out of western KS into parts of
north central KS late today. The environment is not particularly
supportive of longer lived convection and there is a weak cap in
place with little to no forcing. So, have not mentioned
thunderstorms in the forecast. If a storm manages to develop over
north central KS, isolated damaging winds would be possible given a
very deep layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates.

Tuesday:
The day will begin warmer than Monday and will quickly warm into the
90s. Model guidance is once again aggressively mixing out the low
level moisture with some guidance taking dewpoints into the lower
60s and temperatures to near 110. This seems quite unlikely although
the moisture profile does appear a bit shallower on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will be drifting into northern KS during
the afternoon. Immediately ahead of this front, expect an area of
hotter temperatures, and immediately behind the front expect
substantial moisture pooling with dewpoints increasing to the mid
70s. All told, the heat index should be a wash whether temperatures
are warmer/cooler as the dewpoints will respond accordingly
lower/higher. Current heat index forecast is for a range of 104 to
112. This would suggest some potential for an excessive heat
warning, but will hold off at this time given just a bit of
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints will mix out.

As the cold front enters northern KS late in the afternoon, it
should be entering a very unstable airmass with 25-35 kts of deep
layer shear as well. The main question is whether the front will be
deep enough or strong enough to sufficiently force parcels through
the very deep mixed layer. Currently believe that isolated storms
will indeed develop, likely immediately behind the surface front.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for localize
damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. Any afternoon
activity should be isolated, and perhaps more focused during the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

By Tuesday evening the front should be located somewhere along or
just north of the interstate 70 corridor according to the latest
model guidance. The cap still appears to be the limited factor
heading into the evening hours. This inhibition could be eliminated
depending on how much moisture pools behind the front and or the
lift is strong enough to overcome. Isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat associated any thunderstorms. The
chances for precip, which remains scattered, will continue to sag
south with the front through out the night. By morning the front
should push south of the area, and any lingering precip would
reside across portions of east central KS. On Wednesday temps cool
back to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, while drier air
advects southward. High pressure settles over northeast KS through
Thursday night. Early Friday morning precip chances vary with
regards to the models with the ECMWF keeping the area dry and the
GFS developing showers ahead of a front pushing through the
region. Not many changes were made to the extended forecast as the
front hangs around for the weekend keeping the chances for showers
and storms. Then strong upper level low still appears to drop into
the Great Lakes region bringing a secondary front and additional
cool air back southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Vfr conditions will persist through the fcst period with only
sct high clouds expected. Any convection near front towards the
end of the fcst period should remain to the north of the
terminals. South winds overnight will slowly veer ahead of the
approaching front beyond 15z...but at speeds generally 12 kts or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63








000
FXUS63 KTOP 212349 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today/Tonight:
It has been as hot as advertised today, but what has been a little
bit of a surprise is that dewpoints held 1-3 degrees warmer than a
lot of model guidance had suggested. Looking upstream, the source
region of our low level airmass in central OK is characterized by mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. The morning TOP sounding also indicated that
the moisture was fairly deep with the air not notably drier until
above 850 hPa. The result has been heat indices in the 103 to 112
range at mid afternoon with the expectation to hold at that level or
increase slightly yet this evening. A breeze should be maintained
through the night and temperatures will be slow to cool. Have lows
in the upper 70s, but some locales may not fall out of the 80s. This
offers little to no relief even overnight for exposed people and
animals. In terms of precipitation, there remains a very small
chance for one or two storms to move out of western KS into parts of
north central KS late today. The environment is not particularly
supportive of longer lived convection and there is a weak cap in
place with little to no forcing. So, have not mentioned
thunderstorms in the forecast. If a storm manages to develop over
north central KS, isolated damaging winds would be possible given a
very deep layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates.

Tuesday:
The day will begin warmer than Monday and will quickly warm into the
90s. Model guidance is once again aggressively mixing out the low
level moisture with some guidance taking dewpoints into the lower
60s and temperatures to near 110. This seems quite unlikely although
the moisture profile does appear a bit shallower on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will be drifting into northern KS during
the afternoon. Immediately ahead of this front, expect an area of
hotter temperatures, and immediately behind the front expect
substantial moisture pooling with dewpoints increasing to the mid
70s. All told, the heat index should be a wash whether temperatures
are warmer/cooler as the dewpoints will respond accordingly
lower/higher. Current heat index forecast is for a range of 104 to
112. This would suggest some potential for an excessive heat
warning, but will hold off at this time given just a bit of
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints will mix out.

As the cold front enters northern KS late in the afternoon, it
should be entering a very unstable airmass with 25-35 kts of deep
layer shear as well. The main question is whether the front will be
deep enough or strong enough to sufficiently force parcels through
the very deep mixed layer. Currently believe that isolated storms
will indeed develop, likely immediately behind the surface front.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for localize
damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. Any afternoon
activity should be isolated, and perhaps more focused during the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

By Tuesday evening the front should be located somewhere along or
just north of the interstate 70 corridor according to the latest
model guidance. The cap still appears to be the limited factor
heading into the evening hours. This inhibition could be eliminated
depending on how much moisture pools behind the front and or the
lift is strong enough to overcome. Isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat associated any thunderstorms. The
chances for precip, which remains scattered, will continue to sag
south with the front through out the night. By morning the front
should push south of the area, and any lingering precip would
reside across portions of east central KS. On Wednesday temps cool
back to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, while drier air
advects southward. High pressure settles over northeast KS through
Thursday night. Early Friday morning precip chances vary with
regards to the models with the ECMWF keeping the area dry and the
GFS developing showers ahead of a front pushing through the
region. Not many changes were made to the extended forecast as the
front hangs around for the weekend keeping the chances for showers
and storms. Then strong upper level low still appears to drop into
the Great Lakes region bringing a secondary front and additional
cool air back southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Vfr conditions will persist through the fcst period with only
sct high clouds expected. Any convection near front towards the
end of the fcst period should remain to the north of the
terminals. South winds overnight will slowly veer ahead of the
approaching front beyond 15z...but at speeds generally 12 kts or less.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212052
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today/Tonight:
It has been as hot as advertised today, but what has been a little
bit of a surprise is that dewpoints held 1-3 degrees warmer than a
lot of model guidance had suggested. Looking upstream, the source
region of our low level airmass in central OK is characterized by mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. The morning TOP sounding also indicated that
the moisture was fairly deep with the air not notably drier until
above 850 hPa. The result has been heat indices in the 103 to 112
range at mid afternoon with the expectation to hold at that level or
increase slightly yet this evening. A breeze should be maintained
through the night and temperatures will be slow to cool. Have lows
in the upper 70s, but some locales may not fall out of the 80s. This
offers little to no relief even overnight for exposed people and
animals. In terms of precipitation, there remains a very small
chance for one or two storms to move out of western KS into parts of
north central KS late today. The environment is not particularly
supportive of longer lived convection and there is a weak cap in
place with little to no forcing. So, have not mentioned
thunderstorms in the forecast. If a storm manages to develop over
north central KS, isolated damaging winds would be possible given a
very deep layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates.

Tuesday:
The day will begin warmer than Monday and will quickly warm into the
90s. Model guidance is once again aggressively mixing out the low
level moisture with some guidance taking dewpoints into the lower
60s and temperatures to near 110. This seems quite unlikely although
the moisture profile does appear a bit shallower on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will be drifting into northern KS during
the afternoon. Immediately ahead of this front, expect an area of
hotter temperatures, and immediately behind the front expect
substantial moisture pooling with dewpoints increasing to the mid
70s. All told, the heat index should be a wash whether temperatures
are warmer/cooler as the dewpoints will respond accordingly
lower/higher. Current heat index forecast is for a range of 104 to
112. This would suggest some potential for an excessive heat
warning, but will hold off at this time given just a bit of
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints will mix out.

As the cold front enters northern KS late in the afternoon, it
should be entering a very unstable airmass with 25-35 kts of deep
layer shear as well. The main question is whether the front will be
deep enough or strong enough to sufficiently force parcels through
the very deep mixed layer. Currently believe that isolated storms
will indeed develop, likely immediately behind the surface front.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for localize
damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. Any afternoon
activity should be isolated, and perhaps more focused during the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

By Tuesday evening the front should be located somewhere along or
just north of the interstate 70 corridor according to the latest
model guidance. The cap still appears to be the limited factor
heading into the evening hours. This inhibition could be eliminated
depending on how much moisture pools behind the front and or the
lift is strong enough to overcome. Isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat associated any thunderstorms. The
chances for precip, which remains scattered, will continue to sag
south with the front through out the night. By morning the front
should push south of the area, and any lingering precip would
reside across portions of east central KS. On Wednesday temps cool
back to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, while drier air
advects southward. High pressure settles over northeast KS through
Thursday night. Early Friday morning precip chances vary with
regards to the models with the ECMWF keeping the area dry and the
GFS developing showers ahead of a front pushing through the
region. Not many changes were made to the extended forecast as the
front hangs around for the weekend keeping the chances for showers
and storms. Then strong upper level low still appears to drop into
the Great Lakes region bringing a secondary front and additional
cool air back southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions with south to southwest winds are expected through
the entire TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212052
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Today/Tonight:
It has been as hot as advertised today, but what has been a little
bit of a surprise is that dewpoints held 1-3 degrees warmer than a
lot of model guidance had suggested. Looking upstream, the source
region of our low level airmass in central OK is characterized by mid
to upper 70s dewpoints. The morning TOP sounding also indicated that
the moisture was fairly deep with the air not notably drier until
above 850 hPa. The result has been heat indices in the 103 to 112
range at mid afternoon with the expectation to hold at that level or
increase slightly yet this evening. A breeze should be maintained
through the night and temperatures will be slow to cool. Have lows
in the upper 70s, but some locales may not fall out of the 80s. This
offers little to no relief even overnight for exposed people and
animals. In terms of precipitation, there remains a very small
chance for one or two storms to move out of western KS into parts of
north central KS late today. The environment is not particularly
supportive of longer lived convection and there is a weak cap in
place with little to no forcing. So, have not mentioned
thunderstorms in the forecast. If a storm manages to develop over
north central KS, isolated damaging winds would be possible given a
very deep layer of dry adiabatic lapse rates.

Tuesday:
The day will begin warmer than Monday and will quickly warm into the
90s. Model guidance is once again aggressively mixing out the low
level moisture with some guidance taking dewpoints into the lower
60s and temperatures to near 110. This seems quite unlikely although
the moisture profile does appear a bit shallower on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will be drifting into northern KS during
the afternoon. Immediately ahead of this front, expect an area of
hotter temperatures, and immediately behind the front expect
substantial moisture pooling with dewpoints increasing to the mid
70s. All told, the heat index should be a wash whether temperatures
are warmer/cooler as the dewpoints will respond accordingly
lower/higher. Current heat index forecast is for a range of 104 to
112. This would suggest some potential for an excessive heat
warning, but will hold off at this time given just a bit of
uncertainty in how low the dewpoints will mix out.

As the cold front enters northern KS late in the afternoon, it
should be entering a very unstable airmass with 25-35 kts of deep
layer shear as well. The main question is whether the front will be
deep enough or strong enough to sufficiently force parcels through
the very deep mixed layer. Currently believe that isolated storms
will indeed develop, likely immediately behind the surface front.
Forecast soundings suggest a favorable environment for localize
damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop. Any afternoon
activity should be isolated, and perhaps more focused during the
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

By Tuesday evening the front should be located somewhere along or
just north of the interstate 70 corridor according to the latest
model guidance. The cap still appears to be the limited factor
heading into the evening hours. This inhibition could be eliminated
depending on how much moisture pools behind the front and or the
lift is strong enough to overcome. Isolated damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat associated any thunderstorms. The
chances for precip, which remains scattered, will continue to sag
south with the front through out the night. By morning the front
should push south of the area, and any lingering precip would
reside across portions of east central KS. On Wednesday temps cool
back to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s, while drier air
advects southward. High pressure settles over northeast KS through
Thursday night. Early Friday morning precip chances vary with
regards to the models with the ECMWF keeping the area dry and the
GFS developing showers ahead of a front pushing through the
region. Not many changes were made to the extended forecast as the
front hangs around for the weekend keeping the chances for showers
and storms. Then strong upper level low still appears to drop into
the Great Lakes region bringing a secondary front and additional
cool air back southward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions with south to southwest winds are expected through
the entire TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211715
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions with south to southwest winds are expected through
the entire TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211715
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions with south to southwest winds are expected through
the entire TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will
increase to around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 15Z and
continue through 01Z before decreasing to around 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Vfr conditions will persist across all terminal sites through the
forecast with only scattered AC around 15 kft. South winds will
increase again aft 14Z with gusts in the 22-25kt range before
decreasing again near 01Z to sustained 8-10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Vfr conditions will persist across all terminal sites through the
forecast with only scattered AC around 15 kft. South winds will
increase again aft 14Z with gusts in the 22-25kt range before
decreasing again near 01Z to sustained 8-10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63








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