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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240431
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OUT IN THE
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SLOWLY BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY
EASTWARD... BUT STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AT THIS
HOUR. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORMS MAY IMPACT OSAGE... PAWNEE...
AND CREEK COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 10 PM... WHICH IS WHEN OUR POPS
BEGIN. FOR NOW... OUR FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A
DRYLINE HAD MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CWA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER TAKES THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND PUSH TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CWA WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE LONGWAVE TROF WRAPS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OUT IN THE
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SLOWLY BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY
EASTWARD... BUT STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AT THIS
HOUR. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORMS MAY IMPACT OSAGE... PAWNEE...
AND CREEK COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 10 PM... WHICH IS WHEN OUR POPS
BEGIN. FOR NOW... OUR FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A
DRYLINE HAD MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CWA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER TAKES THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND PUSH TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CWA WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE LONGWAVE TROF WRAPS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06









000
FXUS64 KTSA 240004
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
704 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A
DRYLINE HAD MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CWA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER TAKES THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND PUSH TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CWA WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE LONGWAVE TROF WRAPS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A
DRYLINE HAD MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CWA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER TAKES THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND PUSH TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CWA WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE LONGWAVE TROF WRAPS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  74  49  82 /  40  50   0   0
FSM   59  75  49  81 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   63  76  49  82 /  30  40   0   0
BVO   61  74  45  83 /  50  50   0   0
FYV   56  69  45  76 /  20  60  10   0
BYV   54  70  46  78 /  20  60  10  10
MKO   61  73  47  80 /  30  40   0   0
MIO   59  70  45  80 /  40  60   0   0
F10   63  75  49  81 /  40  30   0   0
HHW   62  79  51  81 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231803
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFT 06Z TONIGHT AS STORMS
THAT FORM OUT WEST MOVE INTO THE REGION. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THRU
ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST AT THE NW AR TAFS. LATEST NAM/GFS TIME
HEIGHT RH PLOTS INDICATE SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...AND THUS
SOME MVFR STRATUS POTENTIAL AFT 09Z AS WELL. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BACKING OFF DURING THE MORNING BEHIND A
WEAK FRONT THURSDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PV MAX NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HI PLAINS BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE NEAR
SPRINGFIELD CO/ELKART KS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME HI BASED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER THAT
REGION NOW...AND SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT US LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OUT WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD US TONIGHT...WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
MLC/XNA/FYV/FSM...AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT BVO/TUL/RVS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT BVO/TUL/RVS
AFTER 08-09Z...PERHAPS AFFECTING THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S AFTER
15Z...ESPECIALLY AT BVO/TUL/RVS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  52  81 /  40  50   0   0
FSM   59  77  50  82 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   64  77  49  82 /  30  40   0   0
BVO   61  74  47  82 /  50  50   0   0
FYV   55  71  42  77 /  20  60  10   0
BYV   55  72  47  78 /  20  60  10  10
MKO   61  76  49  81 /  30  40   0   0
MIO   60  73  47  81 /  40  60   0   0
F10   63  76  51  82 /  40  30   0   0
HHW   63  80  52  83 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231605
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PV MAX NEAR LAS VEGAS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN HI PLAINS BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE NEAR
SPRINGFIELD CO/ELKART KS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME HI BASED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER THAT
REGION NOW...AND SOME OF THIS MAY MAKE A RUN AT US LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OUT WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD US TONIGHT...WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EAST.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
MLC/XNA/FYV/FSM...AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT BVO/TUL/RVS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT BVO/TUL/RVS
AFTER 08-09Z...PERHAPS AFFECTING THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S AFTER
15Z...ESPECIALLY AT BVO/TUL/RVS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  75  52 /  10  40  50   0
FSM   83  59  77  50 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   82  64  77  49 /   0  30  30   0
BVO   83  61  74  47 /  10  50  50   0
FYV   77  55  71  42 /  10  20  60   0
BYV   77  55  72  47 /  10  20  60  10
MKO   82  61  76  49 /  10  30  40   0
MIO   81  60  73  47 /  10  40  60   0
F10   82  63  76  51 /  10  40  30   0
HHW   82  63  80  52 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
MLC/XNA/FYV/FSM...AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT BVO/TUL/RVS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT BVO/TUL/RVS
AFTER 08-09Z...PERHAPS AFFECTING THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S AFTER
15Z...ESPECIALLY AT BVO/TUL/RVS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230825
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING
BREEZY SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE LATE
TODAY...AND SOME STORMS COULD APPROACH PARTS OF ERN OK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF DAY THAT STORMS ARRIVE.

FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND WARM...WITH S WINDS QUICKLY
RETURNING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ISN`T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS 30-40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VERY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THE IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL LIFT WILL AID IN
GENERATING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS FAR WRN OK. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FARTHER E. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...APPEAR POSSIBLE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
FOR SUNDAY...AND LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW FROM EJECTING E TOO
QUICKLY...AND WE`LL EVENTUALLY SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER CYCLONE
DOMINATING THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  75  52 /  10  40  50   0
FSM   83  59  77  50 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   82  64  77  49 /   0  30  30   0
BVO   83  61  74  47 /  10  50  50   0
FYV   77  55  71  42 /  10  20  60   0
BYV   77  55  72  47 /  10  20  60  10
MKO   82  61  76  49 /  10  30  40   0
MIO   81  60  73  47 /  10  40  60   0
F10   82  63  76  51 /  10  40  30   0
HHW   82  63  80  52 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF TEMPERATURE
FALL BUT WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW PLACES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF TEMPERATURE
FALL BUT WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW PLACES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT MOST AREA TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN THE 20
TO AROUND 30 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE CWA.

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO ALSO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEING THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN
AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A
LONGWAVE TROF ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE CWA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL THE MAIN PLAYERS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE WITHIN
THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE SATURDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
IF THIS HAPPENS TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA...INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE DRYLINE INTO THE CWA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE REGION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
MONDAY WITH THE EXITING FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN THE 20
TO AROUND 30 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE CWA.

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO ALSO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEING THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN
AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A
LONGWAVE TROF ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE CWA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL THE MAIN PLAYERS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE WITHIN
THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE SATURDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
IF THIS HAPPENS TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA...INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE DRYLINE INTO THE CWA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE REGION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
MONDAY WITH THE EXITING FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  81  61  75 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   51  80  59  75 /   0   0  20  50
MLC   53  80  64  74 /   0   0  30  40
BVO   47  81  61  76 /   0  10  50  40
FYV   46  75  56  70 /   0   0  20  50
BYV   46  74  55  70 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   51  80  61  74 /   0   0  40  50
MIO   47  78  59  74 /   0   0  40  50
F10   54  80  63  76 /   0   0  40  30
HHW   54  80  63  76 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 221729
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR THE NE OK
SITES AFT 15Z WED MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY SPLENDID SPRING DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE LIES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CA HEADS THIS WAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE PLAINS THRU THE WEEKEND.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FSM/FYV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PORTIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS PATCHY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK S ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE AFTERNOON...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR
PARTS OF NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK LATE IN THE
DAY...AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MAKES A RUN TOWARD ERN OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES EVENTUALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR
N. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO FALL ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E TOWARD OUR REGION.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  81  62  77 /   0   0  40  40
FSM   51  80  58  79 /   0   0  20  50
MLC   53  80  63  79 /   0   0  30  30
BVO   48  82  61  76 /   0  10  50  40
FYV   46  75  56  73 /   0   0  20  50
BYV   46  75  55  72 /   0   0  20  50
MKO   51  80  60  78 /   0   0  40  50
MIO   48  79  60  74 /   0   0  40  50
F10   53  80  62  78 /   0   0  40  30
HHW   54  80  63  80 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 221623
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY SPLENDID SPRING DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE LIES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CA HEADS THIS WAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE PLAINS THRU THE WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FSM/FYV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PORTIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS PATCHY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK S ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE AFTERNOON...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR
PARTS OF NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK LATE IN THE
DAY...AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MAKES A RUN TOWARD ERN OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES EVENTUALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR
N. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO FALL ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E TOWARD OUR REGION.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  52  81  62 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   78  51  80  58 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   77  53  80  63 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   76  48  82  61 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   72  46  75  56 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   70  46  75  55 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   76  51  80  60 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   72  48  79  60 /   0   0  10  40
F10   76  53  80  62 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   79  54  80  63 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 221054
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FSM/FYV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PORTIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS PATCHY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK S ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE AFTERNOON...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR
PARTS OF NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK LATE IN THE
DAY...AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MAKES A RUN TOWARD ERN OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES EVENTUALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR
N. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO FALL ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E TOWARD OUR REGION.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220822
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND CONDITIONS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PORTIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IS PATCHY...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK S ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE AFTERNOON...WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER FOR
PARTS OF NE OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK LATE IN THE
DAY...AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT MAKES A RUN TOWARD ERN OK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK FOR PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES EVENTUALLY EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR
N. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO FALL ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE SHIFTS E TOWARD OUR REGION.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  52  81  62 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   78  51  80  58 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   77  53  80  63 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   76  48  82  61 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   72  46  75  56 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   70  46  75  55 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   76  51  80  60 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   72  48  79  60 /   0   0  10  40
F10   76  53  80  62 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   79  54  80  63 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS NE OK AFTER 09Z...ELSEWHERE
AFTER 12Z. CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE LAST LONE SHOWER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING JUST SOUTH
OF TULSA AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.
SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT AND MADE JUST A FEW MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 220247
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST LONE SHOWER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING JUST SOUTH
OF TULSA AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.
SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES. HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT AND MADE JUST A FEW MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 212317
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS NW ARKANSAS...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM. SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES
WITH ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. FOG POTENTIAL MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AT
LEAST SOME AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER NW ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OK
WITH FRONT PASSAGE LIMITS POTENTIAL THERE. CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH
WINDS BECOMING EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. NEAR THE RED RIVER...WARMER TEMPS AND A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA. A DRYLINE
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LLJ INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
APPROACHING WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND RETREAT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
ONCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF...LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES NEAR THE
STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY...THOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND AS LATEST
DATA COMES IN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 212104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION. NEAR THE RED RIVER...WARMER TEMPS AND A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME
STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS. WARMER TEMPS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA. A DRYLINE
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LLJ INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
APPROACHING WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT ENTERING INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND RETREAT NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
ONCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF...LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY...WITH GREATER CHANCES NEAR THE
STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA SATURDAY...THOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND AS LATEST
DATA COMES IN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  52  82 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   56  77  51  80 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   55  77  54  80 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   46  76  48  81 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   52  71  46  74 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   51  70  46  74 /  40   0   0  10
MKO   53  75  51  79 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   48  72  48  78 /  30   0   0  10
F10   54  77  53  80 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   57  79  53  80 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AS RAIN AREA MIGRATES EAST.
BECOMING VFR LATE AFTERNOON EVENING...HOWEVER RISK GROUND
FOG 09Z-13Z WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES ESPECIALLY AT
AR TAF SITES KXNA KFYV KFSM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN  CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE... RAISED POP
SOME THIS AFTERNOON LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMP SEVERAL
DEGREES. ALSO LOWERED PROB THUNDER SOME.      GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERALL...WITH IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS
REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A NARROW LINE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
44...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERE
WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF
THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT FAVORED BY THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EXISTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAYS OF THE
PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATEST RISK AREAS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FAVORING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION THAN THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
IS ONE THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  78  54  83 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   56  77  51  80 /  60   0   0   0
MLC   56  78  54  81 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   48  77  48  82 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   52  72  46  76 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   51  71  47  76 /  60   0   0  10
MKO   54  77  53  80 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   50  75  50  79 /  30   0   0  10
F10   55  77  55  81 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   58  79  55  81 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN  CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE... RAISED POP
SOME THIS AFTERNOON LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMP SEVERAL
DEGREES. ALSO LOWERED PROB THUNDER SOME.      GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERALL...WITH IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS
REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A NARROW LINE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
44...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERE
WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF
THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT FAVORED BY THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EXISTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAYS OF THE
PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATEST RISK AREAS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FAVORING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION THAN THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
IS ONE THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  53  78  54 /  70  20   0   0
FSM   72  56  77  51 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   70  56  78  54 /  90  40   0   0
BVO   72  48  77  48 /  60  20   0   0
FYV   69  52  72  46 /  90  60   0   0
BYV   69  51  71  47 /  90  60   0   0
MKO   72  54  77  53 /  90  30   0   0
MIO   71  50  75  50 /  60  30   0   0
F10   71  55  77  55 /  80  30   0   0
HHW   72  58  79  55 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERALL...WITH IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS
REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A NARROW LINE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
44...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERE
WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF
THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT FAVORED BY THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EXISTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAYS OF THE
PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATEST RISK AREAS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FAVORING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION THAN THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
IS ONE THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  53  78  54 /  60  20   0   0
FSM   75  56  77  51 /  80  60   0   0
MLC   74  56  78  54 /  80  40   0   0
BVO   76  48  77  48 /  50  20   0   0
FYV   73  52  72  46 /  80  60   0   0
BYV   72  51  71  47 /  80  60   0   0
MKO   75  54  77  53 /  70  30   0   0
MIO   74  50  75  50 /  60  30   0   0
F10   75  55  77  55 /  70  30   0   0
HHW   76  58  79  55 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210815
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST OVERALL...WITH IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS
REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A NARROW LINE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA
AND BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
44...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ONCE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVING BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE DAYS WILL FEATURE SEVERE
WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IF
THE FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT FAVORED BY THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GFS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE HIGHER SEVERE STORM THREAT WOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE REGION. MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
EXISTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DAYS OF THE
PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER WISE...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE GREATEST RISK AREAS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
FAVORING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET...SO HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION THAN THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. NEXT WEEKENDS FORECAST
IS ONE THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  53  78  54 /  60  20   0   0
FSM   75  56  77  51 /  80  60   0   0
MLC   74  56  78  54 /  80  40   0   0
BVO   76  48  77  48 /  50  20   0   0
FYV   73  52  72  46 /  80  60   0   0
BYV   72  51  71  47 /  80  60   0   0
MKO   75  54  77  53 /  70  30   0   0
MIO   74  50  75  50 /  60  30   0   0
F10   75  55  77  55 /  70  30   0   0
HHW   76  58  79  55 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22







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