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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBVO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... PATCHY
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
..JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KBVO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... PATCHY
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
..JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250806
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LUCKILY MOST VEGETATION
HAS NOT CURED YET OR THERE WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE
THREAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALTHOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM/BREEZY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
INTO TUESDAY WITH FROPA. QPF AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOLLOWED THE SLIGHTLY FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
FRONTAL TIMING COMPARED TO THE SLOWER NAM. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND FRONT BY MID WEEK
WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SE OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
...JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  89  64 /   0  10   0  10
FSM   86  60  88  59 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   88  62  88  65 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   86  55  91  59 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   83  55  85  59 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   83  58  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   87  60  89  61 /   0  10   0  10
MIO   84  59  88  64 /   0  10   0  10
F10   88  61  89  63 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   87  61  88  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250452
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT KBVO...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATED PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
UPDATED PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 242301
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.

..CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 242037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT - TUES NIGHT.
TIMING: NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUES - TUES NIGHT.

COOLER W/ NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED MID - LATE WEEK.


...CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS / YEAR

TULFSMFYV
10/2591/193988/195084/1950
10/2690/195090/189186/1950
10/2788/192287/199985/1950


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   53  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  83  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   57  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   58  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...PER AREA SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PROVIDING THE ONLY SKY COVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM START THIS
MORNING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. GOING FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID
80S LOOK GOOD. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REMOVE THE FOG AND
ALSO TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240818
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT/PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER OVERALL
QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON PROGRESSION OF UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  61  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   80  57  86  60 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   82  59  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   82  53  89  55 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   76  54  84  54 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   76  59  84  62 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   81  58  87  60 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   81  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
F10   81  59  88  62 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   79  58  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 240446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
POTENTIAL MVFR FOG TAF SITES KBVO KRVS 08Z-14Z...GREATER
POTENTIAL FOG..WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TAF SITES KXNA KFYV 09Z-14Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK INTO WRN AR...AS T/TD SPREADS
HAVE TIGHTENED.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER RISK MVFR FOG
AT SITES KBVO KRVS KFYV KXNA KFSM IN 09Z-13Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY W/ NO
KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
APPEAR INHIBITORS TOWARD SVR WEATHER CHANCES THUS A LIMITED RISK
IS FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS FOR MID WEEK W/ NO KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY W/ NO
KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
APPEAR INHIBITORS TOWARD SVR WEATHER CHANCES THUS A LIMITED RISK
IS FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS FOR MID WEEK W/ NO KNOWN WEATHER IMPACTS FORESEEABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  82  60  88 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   51  80  57  86 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   52  81  60  87 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   50  83  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   45  75  54  83 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   47  76  56  84 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   50  81  58  88 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   50  80  59  86 /  10   0  10   0
F10   53  81  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   50  80  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231735
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT BVO/FYV/XNA...BUT
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO ADJUST POSSIBLE LOWER VISIBILITIES AT
OTHER SITES AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231514
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE BEST COVERAGE AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECORDED. ALSO DROPPED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  40  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  40  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  50  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  50  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  50  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY. KFYV AND KXNA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCE AT SEEING IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  30  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  56  82  60 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   72  52  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   74  53  80  59 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   76  52  83  53 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   70  47  76  54 /  20  10  10   0
BYV   68  49  76  58 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   72  52  80  57 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   73  52  81  57 /  30  10  10   0
F10   73  53  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   72  51  79  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06-09Z...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  73  56  82 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   56  72  54  82 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   57  74  53  83 /  70  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   55  71  53  81 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   54  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   57  72  55  82 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06-09Z...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  73  56  82 /  70  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   56  72  54  82 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   57  74  53  83 /  70  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   55  71  53  81 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   54  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   57  72  55  82 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222315
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  56  82 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   55  72  54  82 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   56  74  53  83 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   54  71  53  81 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   53  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   56  72  55  82 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222315
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
THIS EVENING...AFFECTING THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS AND KMLC TAF SITES
AFTER 07-08Z AND THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AFTER 12Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  56  82 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   55  72  54  82 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   56  74  53  83 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   54  71  53  81 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   53  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   56  72  55  82 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  56  82 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   55  72  54  82 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   56  74  53  83 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   54  71  53  81 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   53  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   56  72  55  82 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 222040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY WITH NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RAISING POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE UV RAY EXPOSURE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  56  82 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   52  71  53  80 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   55  72  54  82 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   56  74  53  83 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   48  69  50  77 /  10  20  10   0
BYV   47  69  51  78 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   54  71  53  81 /  20  20   0   0
MIO   53  70  53  81 /  20  30  10  10
F10   56  72  55  82 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   54  73  53  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 221720
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING. PARTS OF EASTERN OK MAY
ALSO SEE VFR CEILINGS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OK AFTER 06Z AND INTO
WESTERN AR TO A LESSER EXTENT AFTER 12Z. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL THE COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VIS
OF 3 MILES OR MORE. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OK AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFRESH MORNING WORDING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 221720
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING. PARTS OF EASTERN OK MAY
ALSO SEE VFR CEILINGS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OK AFTER 06Z AND INTO
WESTERN AR TO A LESSER EXTENT AFTER 12Z. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL THE COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VIS
OF 3 MILES OR MORE. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OK AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFRESH MORNING WORDING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14









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