Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KTSA 010938
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL METAR SITES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN IN FULL BOUNCE MODE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN RAIN OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CARRY PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM ALL LOCATIONS.
MARGINAL..SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOGGY GROUND...RESIDUAL STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD LIKELY
TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TODAY.

GFS/ECMWF SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT QPF BOTH SATURDAY &
SUNDAY. LITTLE LIFT TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.

QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A GOOD TIME OF YEAR FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS!

ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS IN SPEED AND INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ABOUT A DAY FASTER
AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA..WHILE SLOW ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIP NORTH. MARGINAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.                                             GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   80  67  87  69 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   80  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   85  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   79  59  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   79  61  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   82  64  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   84  63  86  64 /  10   0  10   0
F10   81  65  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   77  66  85  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010936
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL METAR SITES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN IN FULL BOUNCE MODE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN RAIN OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CARRY PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM ALL LOCATIONS.
MARGINAL..SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOGGY GROUND...RESIDUAL STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD LIKELY
TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TODAY.

GFS/ECMWF SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT QPF BOTH SATURDAY &
SUNDAY. LITTLE LIFT TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.

QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A GOOD TIME OF YEAR FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS!

ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS IN SPEED AND INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ABOUT A DAY FASTER
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA..WHILE SLOW ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIP NORTH. MARGINAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.                                             GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   80  67  87  69 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   80  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   85  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   79  59  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   79  61  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   82  64  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   84  63  86  64 /  10   0  10   0
F10   81  65  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   77  66  85  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010936
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL METAR SITES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN IN FULL BOUNCE MODE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN RAIN OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
WILL CARRY PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL 10 AM ALL LOCATIONS.
MARGINAL..SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOGGY GROUND...RESIDUAL STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD LIKELY
TO HOLD TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS MODEL OUTPUT TODAY.

GFS/ECMWF SPITTING OUT VERY LIGHT QPF BOTH SATURDAY &
SUNDAY. LITTLE LIFT TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.
DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.

QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A GOOD TIME OF YEAR FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS!

ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS IN SPEED AND INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ABOUT A DAY FASTER
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA..WHILE SLOW ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIP NORTH. MARGINAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.                                             GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   80  67  87  69 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   80  66  86  67 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   85  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   79  59  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   79  61  84  62 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   82  64  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   84  63  86  64 /  10   0  10   0
F10   81  65  85  66 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   77  66  85  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010436
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDELY VARYING FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGIN TO ERODE
AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS THE SKIES CLEAR...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS HAS BEGUN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITHIN ANY
CLEAR REGIONS... PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH... PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VACATE THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010436
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDELY VARYING FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGIN TO ERODE
AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS THE SKIES CLEAR...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THAT TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS HAS BEGUN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITHIN ANY
CLEAR REGIONS... PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH... PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VACATE THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010218
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
918 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS HAS BEGUN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITHIN ANY
CLEAR REGIONS... PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH... PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VACATE THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   64  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   62  83  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   58  82  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   60  82  62  83 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   61  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
F10   62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   65  79  64  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010218
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
918 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SLOWED AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS HAS BEGUN IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITHIN ANY
CLEAR REGIONS... PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH... PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO VACATE THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THIS ALL INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   64  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   62  83  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   58  82  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   60  82  62  83 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   61  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
F10   62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   65  79  64  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 312044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   64  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   62  83  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   58  82  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   60  82  62  83 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   61  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
F10   62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   65  79  64  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 312044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINED COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S TODAY OVER THE CWA. THE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH SKIES
TRYING TO SCATTER OUT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THE CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...THEN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 50S IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN ERODE ENOUGH.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST COAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROF...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPS RETURN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE REGION. 24-HRS AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THIS NEXT SYSTEM
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY...NOW LATEST
RUNS INDICATE THAT IT COULD BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY
THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   64  83  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   62  83  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   58  82  60  83 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   60  82  62  83 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   61  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   59  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
F10   62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   65  79  64  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 311754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL/LIGHT
WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 311754
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUD CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL/LIGHT
WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  65 /  50  10  10   0
FSM   73  63  82  65 /  50  20  20  10
MLC   73  62  81  64 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   79  59  85  63 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   73  58  80  60 /  50  20  20  10
BYV   74  59  81  61 /  50  20  20  10
MKO   75  62  83  64 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   79  61  84  63 /  20  10  10  10
F10   75  62  82  65 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   71  64  78  65 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 311646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND POPS...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  65 /  50  10  10   0
FSM   73  63  82  65 /  50  20  20  10
MLC   73  62  81  64 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   79  59  85  63 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   73  58  80  60 /  50  20  20  10
BYV   74  59  81  61 /  50  20  20  10
MKO   75  62  83  64 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   79  61  84  63 /  20  10  10  10
F10   75  62  82  65 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   71  64  78  65 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY...BEGINNING WITH THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AND SPREADING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FSM WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE
PERIOD. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT...FOG COULD IMPACT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS /ESPECIALLY THE FAR NW AR ONES/ THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SHOW IFR VSBYS AT MLC/FYV/XNA TO GET THINGS
STARTED...WITH MVFR VSBYS ELSEWHERE. IF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FOG SITUATION SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS IT
COULD BE GIVEN THE RAIN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  65 /  40  10  10   0
FSM   73  63  82  65 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   73  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   79  59  85  63 /  30   0  10   0
FYV   73  58  80  60 /  50  10  20  10
BYV   74  59  81  61 /  50  10  20  10
MKO   75  62  83  64 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   78  61  84  63 /  30  10  10   0
F10   75  62  82  65 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   71  64  78  65 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MEASURED
WITHIN AN AIRMASS CONSISTING OF 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
FLOODING RISK. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.

PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT SFC RIDGING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS OVERHEAD TOMORROW W/ LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
SHOWN IN VARIOUS DATA. HOWEVER THIS MAY ALSO BE NOTHING MORE THAN
HEAVY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY. EITHER WAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND SFC
RIDGING WEAKENS ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  62  85  65 /  40  10  10   0
FSM   73  63  82  65 /  60  20  20  10
MLC   73  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   79  59  85  63 /  30   0  10   0
FYV   73  58  80  60 /  50  10  20  10
BYV   74  59  81  61 /  50  10  20  10
MKO   75  62  83  64 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   78  61  84  63 /  30  10  10   0
F10   75  62  82  65 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   71  64  78  65 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHEST 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE BEEN WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ADDITION RAINFALL TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS... GENERALLY ALONG THE I 44 CORRIDOR. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGES WHICH SHOW RAIN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE
NORTH... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT POPS AND QPF APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE. HAVE RENEWED THE WATCH PRODUCT AND KEPT THE SAME
COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHEST 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE BEEN WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ADDITION RAINFALL TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS... GENERALLY ALONG THE I 44 CORRIDOR. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGES WHICH SHOW RAIN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE
NORTH... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT POPS AND QPF APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE. HAVE RENEWED THE WATCH PRODUCT AND KEPT THE SAME
COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310212
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHEST 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE BEEN WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ADDITION RAINFALL TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS... GENERALLY ALONG THE I 44 CORRIDOR. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGES WHICH SHOW RAIN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE
NORTH... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT POPS AND QPF APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE. HAVE RENEWED THE WATCH PRODUCT AND KEPT THE SAME
COUNTIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 310212
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHEST 6 HR RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE BEEN WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF ADDITION RAINFALL TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS... GENERALLY ALONG THE I 44 CORRIDOR. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH CURRENT RADAR IMAGES WHICH SHOW RAIN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE
NORTH... WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT POPS AND QPF APPEAR TO
BE IN LINE. HAVE RENEWED THE WATCH PRODUCT AND KEPT THE SAME
COUNTIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE SHIELD OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  79  61  85 / 100  40  10  10
FSM   66  75  61  83 / 100  70  20  20
MLC   66  75  62  82 / 100  60  20  10
BVO   63  81  59  86 /  90  30  10  10
FYV   63  73  59  81 /  90  60  20  20
BYV   62  74  60  81 /  80  50  20  20
MKO   66  76  61  84 / 100  50  10  10
MIO   63  80  59  85 /  90  40  10  10
F10   66  76  62  84 / 100  40  10  10
HHW   67  76  63  81 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
434 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WAVE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO
NEAR 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TOWARD AN INCH POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AXIS INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTH OF THE WAVE...AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING
PUSHMATAHA AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH BEGIN THAT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS COULD CLIP PARTS OF THESE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
3-6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING THESE COUNTIES TO THE WATCH. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SETS UP TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE
NEEDED.

SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN COOL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE. OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SKIES COULD BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPS POSSIBLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK COULD REACH BACK UP TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IN THE
FAR END OF THE EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS...COOLER TEMPS COULD
RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  79  61  85 / 100  40  10  10
FSM   66  75  61  83 / 100  70  20  20
MLC   66  75  62  82 / 100  60  20  10
BVO   63  81  59  86 /  90  30  10  10
FYV   63  73  59  81 /  90  60  20  20
BYV   62  74  60  81 /  80  50  20  20
MKO   66  76  61  84 / 100  50  10  10
MIO   63  80  59  85 /  90  40  10  10
F10   66  76  62  84 / 100  40  10  10
HHW   67  76  63  81 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A TUL/FSM
LINE WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY...LOCALLY 5
INCHES POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL/REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN AREAS
WITH ONGOING RAIN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO E
OK AND W AR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING ALL THE TERMINALS FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST
LIKELY...BUT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIODS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...LIKELY TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL EXCEPT
BVO AND AGAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR MLC/FSM. TSRA MOST LIKELY AT
MLC/FSM...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS...JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  79  60 / 100 100  30  10
FSM   75  64  75  61 /  80 100  70  20
MLC   74  63  74  62 /  70 100  50  20
BVO   75  61  81  59 /  90  90  20   0
FYV   75  60  75  57 /  70  80  50  20
BYV   75  61  76  58 /  50  70  50  20
MKO   73  62  76  60 / 100 100  50  20
MIO   76  61  80  59 /  70  60  40  10
F10   73  62  76  61 / 100 100  50  10
HHW   78  65  75  63 /  50  80  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINS IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER NARROW WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DURATION OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY TO LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION THERE WILL REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL DAY TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REACHED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE ALOFT ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE ALSO
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW WARM UP IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  62  79  60 / 100 100  30  10
FSM   75  64  75  61 /  80 100  70  20
MLC   74  63  74  62 /  70 100  50  20
BVO   75  61  81  59 /  90  90  20   0
FYV   75  60  75  57 /  70  80  50  20
BYV   75  61  76  58 /  50  70  50  20
MKO   73  62  76  60 / 100 100  50  20
MIO   76  61  80  59 /  70  60  40  10
F10   73  62  76  61 / 100 100  50  10
HHW   78  65  75  63 /  50  80  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ059-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CONDITONS BECOMING MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300232
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300232
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OK
WITH MAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE DELAYED HIGHER POPS UNTIL AFTER
09Z...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18








000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WILL VISIBILITIES
DUE TO RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WILL VISIBILITIES
DUE TO RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 292124
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MCS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY POPS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...GREATER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE MCS LOOKS TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. GREATEST POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER ACROSS THE CWA...AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT
MUCH WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THUS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...WARM
ADVECTION AND A 20-40KT LLJ WILL ALLOW A CONTINUING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AS THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
PRECIP AND CURRENT 3 AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 3-5
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXITS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE.
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS RISING 500-MB HEIGHTS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OUT WEST...THOUGH TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  71  66  81 /  30  90  80  40
FSM   67  75  66  75 /  10  70  90  70
MLC   69  74  67  76 /  20  80  90  60
BVO   66  72  63  82 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   62  74  62  76 /  10  60  60  40
BYV   62  74  62  77 /  10  50  50  30
MKO   67  70  66  77 /  20  90  90  50
MIO   64  73  63  81 /  20  50  40  20
F10   69  70  67  77 /  40 100  90  50
HHW   69  77  68  79 /  10  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER VISIBILITIES
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 291104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
604 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 TO 20 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT THE OK TERMINALS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER
08-09Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
OK TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED/THURS. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES RESPOND WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING. FURTHERMORE AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH PRECIP WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES FORECAST. THE RESULTANT PRECIP PATTERN WILL TAKE THE SHAPE
OF A CYCLONE MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER WITH AN EXPANDING WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A REGION OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP AS THE
SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE RESULT WITH THE LATEST DATA TRENDING NORTHWARD AND A BIT
HEAVIER WITH THE OVERALL AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
CONSIDERED HOWEVER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SEEM LESS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REQUIRE A
DOUBLE TAKE...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY.

CONDITIONS DRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE NORMALLY PREVALENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FAILS TO REORGANIZE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities