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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 181437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY ON EASTERN FRINGE...WILL
GRADUALLY END BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES NEW DEVELOPMENT OUT IN WESTERN OK NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM THE MORNING STORMS AND
THE NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
..BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  70  60  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  90  60  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  30  60  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  60  60  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  80  60  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  80  60  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  70  60  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  90  60  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  40  60  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181122
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
622 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS...ALONG WITH VFR/ MVFR CIGS IN THUNDER WILL PREVAIL
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN OK TAF SITES...AND WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NW AR SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
...BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RA/TSRA BEGINS TO IMPACT THE ERN OK
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVENING...AND NW AR SITES
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180757
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AS UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...HOWEVER
MODEST INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAINFALL. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EXPECTED...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AROUND
MID DAY...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COOL/BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE DIVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES. STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  56  70  45 /  80  50  50  10
FSM   75  57  75  49 /  60  50  50  20
MLC   75  57  75  48 /  60  50  40  10
BVO   73  55  70  45 /  80  50  60  10
FYV   72  53  69  44 /  60  50  60  40
BYV   71  55  68  46 /  60  50  60  40
MKO   73  56  72  45 /  60  50  50  10
MIO   73  54  69  45 /  80  50  60  30
F10   74  58  71  47 /  60  50  40  10
HHW   77  57  77  48 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180215
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT MAINLY TO TWEAK
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME
ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR OTHERWISE
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD HAVE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  60  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  60  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  60  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  70  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 172255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIOIATE
WITH TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BRIEF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM CELLS THAT MAKE A
DIRECT HIT ON A TERMINAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 172005
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN
COLORADO WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
BEING ENTRAINED TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT 6 TO 7 DAYS
OUT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY WILD TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. AT LEAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
126 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA FIRST...AND THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND HAVE PUT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  75  57  75 /  70  70  40  50
FSM   63  75  58  78 /  60  70  30  50
MLC   61  76  58  76 /  70  50  30  30
BVO   59  76  55  73 /  70  70  40  50
FYV   58  71  52  71 /  50  70  40  50
BYV   59  72  54  71 /  40  60  40  50
MKO   61  74  55  75 /  70  60  30  50
MIO   59  73  55  72 /  70  60  40  60
F10   61  75  57  75 /  60  60  30  30
HHW   63  75  58  78 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
AVIATION...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   78  63  76  59 /  50  70  70  40
MLC   77  62  76  58 /  50  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   74  59  71  55 /  50  70  70  40
BYV   74  59  70  56 /  60  70  70  40
MKO   77  61  74  55 /  50  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  70  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   77  63  75  59 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   78  63  76  59 /  50  70  70  40
MLC   77  62  76  58 /  50  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   74  59  71  55 /  50  70  70  40
BYV   74  59  70  56 /  60  70  70  40
MKO   77  61  74  55 /  50  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  70  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   77  63  75  59 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171508
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
AREA...AND TRACKED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY MID MORNING...THE STRONGER STORMS HAD
WEAKENED AS THEY LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE MORNING
STORMS...AND LOWERED POPS BEHIND THE EXITING LINE OF STORMS AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN PRECIP ACTIVITY UNTIL THE SECOND ROUND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPS AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE PRECIP MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND CEILINGS RISE. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   78  63  76  59 /  50  70  70  40
MLC   77  62  76  58 /  50  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   74  59  71  55 /  50  70  70  40
BYV   74  59  70  56 /  60  70  70  40
MKO   77  61  74  55 /  50  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  70  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   77  63  75  59 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W-E DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
AT THAT TIME...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL IN -TSRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 171113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W-E DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
AT THAT TIME...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL IN -TSRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W-E DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
AT THAT TIME...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL IN -TSRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 171113
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W-E DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.
AT THAT TIME...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL IN -TSRA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 170812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   79  63  76  59 /  40  70  70  40
MLC   76  62  76  58 /  40  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   76  59  71  55 /  40  70  70  40
BYV   76  59  70  56 /  30  70  70  40
MKO   76  61  74  55 /  40  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  50  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   79  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   79  63  76  59 /  40  70  70  40
MLC   76  62  76  58 /  40  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   76  59  71  55 /  40  70  70  40
BYV   76  59  70  56 /  30  70  70  40
MKO   76  61  74  55 /  40  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  50  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   79  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   79  63  76  59 /  40  70  70  40
MLC   76  62  76  58 /  40  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   76  59  71  55 /  40  70  70  40
BYV   76  59  70  56 /  30  70  70  40
MKO   76  61  74  55 /  40  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  50  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   79  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF PONCA CITY MAKING
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR-
MASS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR ANY LINGERING MCV TYPE FEATURES FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ON SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  61  77  57 /  50  70  60  40
FSM   79  63  76  59 /  40  70  70  40
MLC   76  62  76  58 /  40  70  60  40
BVO   77  59  77  56 /  50  70  60  40
FYV   76  59  71  55 /  40  70  70  40
BYV   76  59  70  56 /  30  70  70  40
MKO   76  61  74  55 /  40  70  60  40
MIO   76  59  73  54 /  50  70  60  40
F10   76  62  76  57 /  50  70  60  40
HHW   79  63  75  59 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY ABOUT
MID DAY AT ALL SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY ABOUT
MID DAY AT ALL SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY ABOUT
MID DAY AT ALL SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY ABOUT
MID DAY AT ALL SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170226
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  77  62  76 /  20  60  70  50
FSM   60  78  63  75 /  20  30  70  70
MLC   61  77  61  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO   57  77  60  76 /  20  60  70  60
FYV   56  75  60  71 /  20  30  70  70
BYV   55  76  59  71 /  10  40  70  70
MKO   59  77  61  76 /  20  40  70  50
MIO   57  78  60  73 /  20  50  70  70
F10   60  77  61  77 /  30  50  70  30
HHW   62  77  63  78 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170226
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  77  62  76 /  20  60  70  50
FSM   60  78  63  75 /  20  30  70  70
MLC   61  77  61  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO   57  77  60  76 /  20  60  70  60
FYV   56  75  60  71 /  20  30  70  70
BYV   55  76  59  71 /  10  40  70  70
MKO   59  77  61  76 /  20  40  70  50
MIO   57  78  60  73 /  20  50  70  70
F10   60  77  61  77 /  30  50  70  30
HHW   62  77  63  78 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 170226
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS NW OK AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF KS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY
EAST. AIRMASS ACROSS NE OK IS RATHER STABLE SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  77  62  76 /  20  60  70  50
FSM   60  78  63  75 /  20  30  70  70
MLC   61  77  61  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO   57  77  60  76 /  20  60  70  60
FYV   56  75  60  71 /  20  30  70  70
BYV   55  76  59  71 /  10  40  70  70
MKO   59  77  61  76 /  20  40  70  50
MIO   57  78  60  73 /  20  50  70  70
F10   60  77  61  77 /  30  50  70  30
HHW   62  77  63  78 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 162310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 162310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 162310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 162310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT REMNANTS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WELL TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 162032
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  77  62  76 /  40  60  70  50
FSM   60  78  63  75 /  20  30  70  70
MLC   61  77  61  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO   57  77  60  76 /  30  60  70  60
FYV   56  75  60  71 /  20  30  70  70
BYV   55  76  59  71 /  20  40  70  70
MKO   59  77  61  76 /  30  40  70  50
MIO   57  78  60  73 /  20  50  70  70
F10   60  77  61  77 /  30  50  70  30
HHW   62  77  63  78 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 162032
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE REALM
OF FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND AS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMID UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE. BOTH OF THESE
ZONES WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE
LOCAL AREA WILL LARGELY INHERIT THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM BOTH REGIONS. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ALL SEEM TO FAVOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS WOULD REMAIN WITH A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES ALSO DRAW NEARER. THE
RESULTANT FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE WHILE STORM
ORIGINATION POINTS WILL BE CLOSER...HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING STORMS MAY STABILIZE CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE TIME FRAME
APPROACHES. BY SUNDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WHILE
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS
AND POINTS FURTHER EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BENEATH THE
COLD MID LEVEL CORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING WITH
TIME AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.

COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  77  62  76 /  40  60  70  50
FSM   60  78  63  75 /  20  30  70  70
MLC   61  77  61  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO   57  77  60  76 /  30  60  70  60
FYV   56  75  60  71 /  20  30  70  70
BYV   55  76  59  71 /  20  40  70  70
MKO   59  77  61  76 /  30  40  70  50
MIO   57  78  60  73 /  20  50  70  70
F10   60  77  61  77 /  30  50  70  30
HHW   62  77  63  78 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161659
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

IFR CIGS AFFECTING FSM/ROG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...LIKELY BECOMING
VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE E OK TERMINALS COULD SEE TSRA AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...BUT IT
IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE...NO TSRA MENTION IN THIS SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161659
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

IFR CIGS AFFECTING FSM/ROG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...LIKELY BECOMING
VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE E OK TERMINALS COULD SEE TSRA AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...BUT IT
IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE...NO TSRA MENTION IN THIS SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 161659
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

IFR CIGS AFFECTING FSM/ROG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...LIKELY BECOMING
VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE E OK TERMINALS COULD SEE TSRA AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...BUT IT
IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE...NO TSRA MENTION IN THIS SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161659
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

IFR CIGS AFFECTING FSM/ROG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT...LIKELY BECOMING
VFR BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE E OK TERMINALS COULD SEE TSRA AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...BUT IT
IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE...NO TSRA MENTION IN THIS SET
OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 161525
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 161525
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE LAST FOG HOLDOUTS. WITH
THE NOTED OVERALL IMPROVEMENT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...EVEN WITH A FEW OBS SITES STILL AT A QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 161144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
EXCEPT FOR KMLC AND POSSIBLY KFYV...MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ074.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 160913
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL SITES PERIODICALLY REPORTING VIS OF 1/4-1/2
MILE. SHORT TERM HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. ENOUGH
SUN WILL PREVAIL TODAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT CUTS
OFF AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DURING THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN SOME THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND A
BIT COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  60  77  61 /  10  40  60  70
FSM   79  60  78  62 /  10  20  50  70
MLC   78  61  78  60 /  10  40  60  60
BVO   79  57  77  58 /  10  30  60  70
FYV   77  57  75  59 /  10  10  50  60
BYV   75  56  75  58 /  10  10  40  60
MKO   78  59  77  61 /  10  30  60  70
MIO   78  57  77  59 /  10  10  50  70
F10   78  60  77  61 /  10  40  60  70
HHW   78  62  77  62 /  20  30  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 160448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS...ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES...AND POSSIBLY INTO KTUL/KBVO. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE GIVING BOTH A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC
MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WHILE GIVING A FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE
HRRR CORROBORATES THIS WITH PROGGED LOW VISIBILITIES BEGINNING BY
ABOUT 6Z. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING... WILL KEEP FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WHILE DECREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY ABOUT
9:30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 160448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS...ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES...AND POSSIBLY INTO KTUL/KBVO. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE GIVING BOTH A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC
MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WHILE GIVING A FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE
HRRR CORROBORATES THIS WITH PROGGED LOW VISIBILITIES BEGINNING BY
ABOUT 6Z. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING... WILL KEEP FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WHILE DECREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY ABOUT
9:30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 160220
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE GIVING BOTH A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC
MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WHILE GIVING A FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE
HRRR CORROBORATES THIS WITH PROGGED LOW VISIBILITIES BEGINNING BY
ABOUT 6Z. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING... WILL KEEP FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WHILE DECREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY ABOUT
9:30.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 160220
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
920 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE GIVING BOTH A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST RUC
MODEL SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEPTH OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WHILE GIVING A FAIRLY STRONG INDICATION OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE
HRRR CORROBORATES THIS WITH PROGGED LOW VISIBILITIES BEGINNING BY
ABOUT 6Z. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING... WILL KEEP FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WHILE DECREASING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY ABOUT
9:30.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 152328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 152328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 152328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 152328
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOWER CLOUDS...WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...WILL CONTINUE
TO SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AR
TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 152023
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 152023
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN /
CLOUDS IS LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE THE NEXT CLOSED LOW
IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER- MOUNTAIN WEST.
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL MARK THE DRY PERIOD BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MORNING FOG ON
THURSDAY LIFTING AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80.

CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH STORM
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES
AND/OR THE HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NEARER THE AREA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS TO BE CLOSER TO THEIR STRONGER STAGES AS THEY TRACK INTO
THE AREA. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH NO SPECIFIC AREA OR TIMEFRAME
IS OVERLY FAVORED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  79  60  76 /   0  10  50  60
FSM   54  79  61  78 /  10  10  30  60
MLC   54  78  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   52  79  58  77 /  10  10  50  60
FYV   51  76  57  74 /  10  10  20  60
BYV   51  75  56  75 /  10  10  20  60
MKO   54  78  60  77 /   0  10  40  60
MIO   52  77  57  75 /  10  10  20  60
F10   54  78  60  76 /   0  10  60  60
HHW   54  79  62  76 /   0  30  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AT LEAST LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE NW AR TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT THE E OK TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH DRIZZLE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA ALSO GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING TO INCLUDE A DRY
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A WARMUP. HIGHS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS ARE OR WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES...ESPECIALLY KMLC...MAY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AND PROVIDES A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY AREAS AS A
RESULT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF
LOW BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH
AT LEAST A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN NEAR 80 AND RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AT LEAST LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE NW AR TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT THE E OK TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH DRIZZLE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA ALSO GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING TO INCLUDE A DRY
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A WARMUP. HIGHS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS ARE OR WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES...ESPECIALLY KMLC...MAY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AND PROVIDES A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY AREAS AS A
RESULT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF
LOW BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH
AT LEAST A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN NEAR 80 AND RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AT LEAST LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE NW AR TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT THE E OK TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH DRIZZLE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA ALSO GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING TO INCLUDE A DRY
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A WARMUP. HIGHS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS ARE OR WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES...ESPECIALLY KMLC...MAY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AND PROVIDES A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY AREAS AS A
RESULT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF
LOW BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH
AT LEAST A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN NEAR 80 AND RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 151705
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AT LEAST LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE NW AR TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT THE E OK TERMINALS FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH DRIZZLE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN PRECIP AREA ALSO GRADUALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING. MADE A FEW
TWEAKS TO THE POPS WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING TO INCLUDE A DRY
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS
SHOULD NOT OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF A WARMUP. HIGHS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS ARE OR WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES...ESPECIALLY KMLC...MAY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA AND PROVIDES A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE RECENT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY AREAS AS A
RESULT...BUT MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND FOR AT LEAST MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF
LOW BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH
AT LEAST A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN NEAR 80 AND RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK HOWEVER AND
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






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