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000
FXUS64 KTSA 202148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 202148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY FOR TSA CWA. CLOUDS LIKELY ANCHORED
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUN ARRIVES ON 24TH.
MAX / MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKY.

H500 WAVE  FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN
&  CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEST
COAST H500 RIDGE AMPLIFIES. ELONGATED TROUGH - CENTRAL
CANADA TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  ECMWF WRF GFS &
DIFFER SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
HOW FAST  COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN EASTERN OK NORTHWEST
AR TUESDAY. IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY THE TAIL END
OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A
WINTRY MIX. GIVEN THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE TUESDAY WITH  HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 40S DID NOT PUT
POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AND...THEN
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EXTREME EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY WHILE NEXT
UPPER WAVE DIVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES.
CHRISTMAS DAY  PROMISES TO OFFER LOTS OF SUN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT / FRIDAY
LEAVING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.           GW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  50  46  54 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   40  50  43  56 /   0  10  10  30
MLC   42  50  47  57 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   37  48  43  53 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   36  46  42  53 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   35  47  41  53 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   40  49  44  55 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   39  48  43  52 /   0  10  20  30
F10   40  49  45  56 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   42  50  45  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 201809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE OK WILL LIKELY FILL
BACK IN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS. CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING/AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 201809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE OK WILL LIKELY FILL
BACK IN BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS. CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING/AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 201639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO TWEAK SKY CONDITION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD BACK OVER THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY
TUL/RVS SEEING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 11Z AND EVEN AT
THESE TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z OR SOON THEREAFTER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EVEN SCATTER OUT IN NE OK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY
TUL/RVS SEEING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 11Z AND EVEN AT
THESE TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z OR SOON THEREAFTER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO EVEN SCATTER OUT IN NE OK MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ARE
SHOWING A FEW SPOTS WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE NOTED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NCTRL OK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST.

YET ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ABUNDANT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. MAY SEE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

THE PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK.

STILL SEEING SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT DOES BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  37  51  42 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   51  38  52  40 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   50  39  52  44 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   48  35  51  39 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   46  33  48  38 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   45  33  48  39 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   49  38  51  41 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   47  36  50  41 /   0   0  10  20
F10   49  39  51  42 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   50  38  52  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ALSO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THESE LOCATIONS COULD
ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT/BKN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  52  38  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  50  38  52 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  47  33  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  46  32  48 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  49  38  51 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  47  36  50 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  48  38  51 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  51  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ALSO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER THESE LOCATIONS COULD
ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT TO MVFR ACROSS
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY BECOME SCT/BKN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  52  38  52 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  50  38  52 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  51 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  47  33  48 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  46  32  48 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  49  38  51 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  47  36  50 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  48  38  51 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  51  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200154
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE SHOWN UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO SOME WEAK LIFT FROM A PV MAX PASSING OVERHEAD ATTM. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE DRIZZLE IS TAPERING OFF...HOWEVER SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ALSO...PATCHY FOG IS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY DOWN AT MCALESTER WHERE
VSBYS HAVE BEEN BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THERE IS OPTIMISM THAT THE SUN WILL ACTUALLY SHOW TOMORROW. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE A SIGN THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ERODE THE STRATUS LAYER ON SATURDAY. WE SHALL
SEE. TO DATE...TULSA HAS ONLY SEEN 14% OF THE TOTAL POSSIBLE
SUNSHINE MINUTES TO THIS POINT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THAT`S A
LOT OF GREY DAYS SO FAR.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   40  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   40  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   34  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   37  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   37  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   36  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   38  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   42  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 192347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...WHILE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE LIFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO
MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPPER WAVE OVER FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST
OVERNIGHT.  LACK OF DRYING BEHIND THAT WAVE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOG
OF THE PATCHY VARIETY ONCE AGAIN A GOOD BET NORTH.

WAVE..CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY.  CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

CONSOLIDATION..OF SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TAKES
PLACE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS /WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR
DRY LATE TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY..THROUGH CHRISTMAS...INTO
BOXING DAY. SHOULD THAT ENERGY CONSOLIDATE LITTLE MORE
SOUTH OUR REGION MAY CATCH SOME LIGHT BACKSIDE PRECIP.
PROBABLY SNOW FLURRIES AT WORST. MEANWHILE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER THE GUN FOR POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT PRE-CHRISTMAS SNOW STORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  48  38  51 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   39  49  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   38  48  38  51 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   31  47  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   35  45  33  47 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   35  45  32  47 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   36  48  38  50 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   35  46  36  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   36  47  38  50 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   41  48  38  51 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO LOW CEILING HEIGHTS
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/
NW AR. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS MODESTLY INCREASE...
BUT THAT MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191738
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO LOW CEILING HEIGHTS
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK/
NW AR. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS MODESTLY INCREASE...
BUT THAT MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 191650
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191650
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING.  ADDED A FEW NE OK/NW AR
COUNTIES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH LIMITED MIXING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ072.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 191058
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AT THE FAR NW AR TERMINALS...WITH XNA LIKELY TO BE MOST
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191058
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AT THE FAR NW AR TERMINALS...WITH XNA LIKELY TO BE MOST
AFFECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190851
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
TX...IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PUSHING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH IF I-40. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SFC RIDGE WILL AID IN LIMITING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY AMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A RATHER DEEP (BUT TRANSIENT) TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER TROF...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS
DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  35  49  37 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   47  36  51  35 /  20  10   0  10
MLC   47  35  51  37 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   42  30  49  35 /  10  10   0  10
FYV   43  34  46  31 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   41  33  45  30 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   44  34  50  35 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   42  33  47  34 /  10  10   0  10
F10   44  33  50  37 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   49  39  51  37 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190544
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VARYING CEILINGS BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODEL
SOUNDINS INDICATE CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT BACK TO MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER PERUSING THE NEW 00Z DATA...WHICH SHOWS A CONSISTENT TREND
OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ON FRIDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED THRU FRIDAY EVENING. 50
PERCENT CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER...BUT
THE GRADIENT WAS MADE MUCH TIGHTER NORTH OF THERE...LOWERING
CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CONFINING
THEM TO SE OK AND W CENTRAL AR. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE SLIGHT CHANCES WERE REMOVED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   37  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   33  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   41  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 182111
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   41  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   34  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   35  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   34  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   37  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   34  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   40  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   42  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH LOW
CEILING HEIGHTS/FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181632
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST.  DID INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS BUT OVERALL COLD/CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SHORT TERM CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181052
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT... OR BETTER THAN
MVFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAINFALL OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF
SITES AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180958
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A SUBTLE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS PASSING OVERHEAD AIDING LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG THE KS / OK BORDER...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ZONE OF
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS W OK. THIS WEAK
LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST AND MAINTAIN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH TODAY. SFC TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED STEADY OR WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT....AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE TREND BENEATH A PERSIST LOW CLOUD DECK TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER
WHERE A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER NO IMPACT ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE ROBUST UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER LIGHT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAY SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON MONDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS WAVE AND ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
REMAINS CONSISTENT W/ UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...HOWEVER THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION IS IN
DISAGREEMENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT ALONG W/ THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  35  44  33 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   45  40  46  37 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   44  38  46  35 /  20  20  30  10
BVO   38  33  43  30 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  36  43  32 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   39  33  41  32 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   44  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   39  33  43  33 /  20  10  10  10
F10   43  37  45  34 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   46  42  48  38 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180542
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CARRY A MENTION FOR BVO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  50  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  70  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  50  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  60  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  70  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
MIO   32  40  35  41 /  60  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   36  50  44  48 /  60  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180257
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE STILL LOOKING REASONABLE AS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DRY INTRUSION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ADJUSTED
PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS EARLIER AND CONTINUED SOME MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIP INTO THURSDAY MORNING FAR NRN OK AND NWRN AR. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ADDED FOR FAR NRN OK AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NWRN AR. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP INTO SRN KS
AND OSAGE...WASHINGTON...AND NOWATA COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.
DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTIVE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST PRODUCTS
ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172347
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. BVO TAF SITE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITHIN THE RAIN THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. VARYING CEILINGS FROM
IFR TO VFR SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF THURSDAY. A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY LIFTING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS
LOWER LAYERS HAVE SATURATED AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO DRAW CLOSER. HIGH POPS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STRONGER WAA ZONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z...BUT WILL TAPER
POPS FROM SW TO NE AS PRECIP BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THAT SHARPENS FROM W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WAVE AND APPROACHING MAIN UPPER TROUGH. HIGHEST QPF
SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING
CONSISTENCY WITH UPPER TROUGH MOTION ALONG WITH REDEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS ACROSS TX AND LA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP MIXED PRECIP MENTION ACROSS FAR NW AR LATE FRIDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COLDER AIR THAT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ACROSS JUST THE
WRN ZONES. STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   34  44  37  44 /  80  20  20  20
FSM   35  48  43  44 /  90  20  20  30
MLC   37  48  41  46 /  80  20  20  30
BVO   32  41  35  42 /  90  30  20  20
FYV   32  44  38  43 /  90  30  20  20
BYV   32  41  36  40 /  90  30  20  20
MKO   35  44  39  45 /  90  20  20  20
MIO   33  40  35  41 /  90  30  20  20
F10   36  45  39  45 /  80  20  20  20
HHW   38  50  44  48 /  90  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






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