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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect northeast OK and northwest
AR through the morning before gradually weakening and movingeast.
This should result in period of MVFR ceilings early in the
forecast with improvement to VFR by afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, however
confidence remains low and no mention of thunder will be carried
in the forecast after this morning. MVFR ceilings likely to
return late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection ongoing from far NW AR to SE OK is likely to weaken
and/or exit the forecast area early this morning. Additionally,
convection across SE KS continues to sage southward with continued
redevelopment as low level jet intercepts outflow boundary. This
process is expected to wane later this morning. Finally shortwave
ridging is expected for much of the day which is expected to limit
coverage of afternoon storm development. Storms which do develop
west nearer the dryline this afternoon may again congeal and track
somewhere across the forecast tonight. Despite the lack of defined
focus, the high instability environment will support a risk of
severe weather.

The more widespread storm coverage remains forecast for Thurs -
Friday as stronger forcing overspreads the Plains. Several rounds
of severe weather are likely to be ongoing through this period
some of which are likely to impact eastern OK and northwest AR.

The flow aloft does weaken behind the departing wave however an
unstable and weakly capped airmass will remain in place. This
along with a possible weak frontal boundary along with any subtle
forcing aloft necessitates the continuation of precip chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  73  85  69 /  40  30  40  60
FSM   86  72  83  68 /  40  40  50  60
MLC   84  73  82  69 /  20  30  30  60
BVO   87  70  84  68 /  80  30  30  60
FYV   81  68  81  66 /  40  30  40  60
BYV   83  69  82  64 /  50  30  30  60
MKO   85  72  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
MIO   84  71  84  68 /  80  30  40  60
F10   85  73  82  67 /  20  30  40  60
HHW   85  73  81  68 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14





000
FXUS64 KTSA 242302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

RVS is the most likely terminal to be affected by TSRA in the
first few hours of the valid TAF period, with other terminals
unlikely to be impacted directly. The ongoing activity will be
close enough to TUL, though, that will still carry a VCTS, with
no visibility or ceiling restriction. Additional scattered TSRA
may develop and affect the E OK terminals late tonight and into
early tomorrow as well. MVFR ceilings should affect all terminals
from late tonight through much of the day tomorrow, with a gradual
improvement expected during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in the
vicinity of a decaying outflow boundary that extends from
northeast Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms
have also developed across northwest Arkansas in response to an
MCV migrating across that area. These storms are forming in a
very unstable and weakly sheared environment. Could see damaging
winds to around 70 mph and large hail with these storms. The tornado
threat is low especially along the outflow boundary. This activity
is expected to diminish around sunset. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop later this afternoon and evening across western
Oklahoma and western Kansas. This activity could move into eastern
Oklahoma during the overnight hours and also pose a damaging wind
and hail threat. This activity would persist in the morning hours
Wednesday across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms decrease some on Wednesday with
no real focus for development. Since the airmass will not be changing
much could see some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
the unstable and weakly capped environment. The chances of thunderstorms
increase Thursday night into Friday as a more significant upper level
shortwave moves out of the southwest and across the plains. This could
occur in the two rounds of thunderstorms, one Thursday night and one
on Friday afternoon. Severe weather will be possible with each round
with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, the
threat for tornadoes will also be a concern especially on Friday.

Storm chances diminish over the Holiday weekend. However, they do increase
into the chance range on Monday as a shortwave in the southwesterly flow
aloft moves across the southern plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible across northwest
Arkansas through mid afternoon in association with mid level circulation.
Additional thunderstorms also possible in the BVO area by mid/late
afternoon near outflow boundary. Exact timing of convection overnight
still remains uncertain and will generally cover eastern Oklahoma
TAF sites with prob30 groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
outside any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...12

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241604
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1104 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few breaks in the cloud cover this morning has allowed temps
to quickly warm into the upper 70s in many locations. High
temperatures have been raised for this afternoon by a few degrees
across most areas before clouds begin to fill back in.

MCV from overnight thunderstorm complex, currently over east-
central Oklahoma, will provide focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms along/east of feature this afternoon. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon as outflow boundary
pushes south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 241106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
606 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be increasing later this
morning into the afternoon with another increase in chances late
tonight. In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, except with more significant thunderstorms which could
lead to brief IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00z RAOBs across the Southern Plains sampled seasonably high
values of low level moisture while also recording a broad fetch of
steep mid level lapse rates. The result being a broad zone of
strong instability which, when weakly capped amidst subtle
forcing, often causes issues within numerical models. This pattern
has been, and will continue to be, in play through the forecast
period.

Focus for today is ongoing small MCS ongoing over south central OK
which may spread into SE OK later this morning. Also extensive
convection has been maintained across NW KS with veered 50kt low
level jet fueling continued generation along the southwestern
flank. This complex is the larger short term concern as numerous
CAM solutions either sustain the ongoing convection southeastward
or push a remnant outflow boundary into NE OK today. Either
scenario would provide a focus for additional storms to develop in
the aforementioned weakly capped and unstable airmass and pose a
severe weather risk. This scenario contains plenty of uncertainty
but enough data support the potential to raise precip chances
today.

Storm will also form west of the area on the dryline this
afternoon and attempt to spread eastward into E OK this evening
and/or overnight. How far east and to what intensity level largely
depends on how convection evolves during the day.

Wednesday continues to appear as the day with the least amount of
storm coverage. A stronger wave is still on track to influx the
Southern Plains Thursday through Friday. Numerous rounds of severe
storms look likely across the Plains beginning Thurs afternoon
and likely continuing Thursday night into Friday. Thunderstorm
chances will be maintained through next weekend as the pattern
remains unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  71  87  72 /  60  40  20  20
FSM   82  70  85  72 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   80  72  83  73 /  60  50  20  20
BVO   80  68  87  69 /  60  40  20  20
FYV   77  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
BYV   78  67  82  69 /  60  30  20  20
MKO   80  69  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
MIO   78  69  84  69 /  60  40  20  20
F10   81  71  83  71 /  60  50  20  20
HHW   81  71  84  71 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231747
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to persist across Osage County
this afternoon as a 35kt low level jet continues to funnel into
that area. The MCV continue across northeast Oklahoma with the
majority of the convection associated with this feature fading.
Have adjusted the pops and temperatures for this afternoon with
the cloud cover expected to keep temperatures a few degree lower.


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 231428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The Overnight MCS across southern OKlahoma and northern Texas
has left an MCV over northeast Oklahoma this morning. This feature
will continue to have convection associated with it for the next
several hours as it moves off to the northeast with adequate elevated
instability in place. The convection may become a little more concentrated
around the MCV with the activity further south diminishing. Have made
some adjustment to the pops for Today to take this into account.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection now entering eastern OK will continue to spread
eastward through the morning. The most likely aviation impact will
be across SE OK nearer the stronger storms. Thinking is that once
this convection dissipates then any redevelopment will be most
likely west of the area with storms possibly spreading into the
area early Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.

The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.

Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230935
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
435 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The synoptic features from yesterday remain largely in play and
nearly in the same locations early this morning. The one
exception is that the ridge of high pressure has shifted east
southeast some...becoming more positively tilted as the longwave
trof settled over the Desert Southwest United States. Also this
morning...the dryline off the surface low over Eastern Colorado
continued to extend southward into far Eastern New Mexico.
Scattered convection that had developed yesterday along the
dryline had formed into a MCS across Southern Oklahoma...
approaching Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...
cloudy conditions with east to southeasterly winds were common.

The MCS will continue to push eastward into/across Southeast
Oklahoma this morning and potentially spreading into Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon. An instability
axis remained just west of the CWA this morning...which could help
to weaken the overall intensity of the MCS...however gusty to
locally damaging winds could be possible with this activity.
Also...additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA through this evening as any leftover outflow
boundaries from the morning activity remain over the region.
Breezy southerly winds transporting moisture back into the region
combined with near seasonal average temperatures underneath a
destabilizing atmosphere could allow for any thunderstorm activity
through this evening to become strong to severe with large hail
and locally damaging winds being the main threats. The greater
severe potential though should remain west of the CWA...closer to
the dryline.

Also this afternoon...additional convection is expected to fire
along/near the dryline again...which will have the potential to
cluster together into another MCS and move into the CWA overnight
tonight. The instability axis overnight tonight looks to be a
little more eastward than where it is this morning. This will aid
in a continued severe potential overnight tonight over the
CWA...with locally damaging winds being possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...the longwave trof is forecast to stall
over the Southwest United States with west to southwesterly upper
level flow over the Plains. Weak impulses within this flow moving
across the Plains along with the dryline remaining over Western
Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will give a "rinse-wash-
repeat" for thunderstorm chances each day over the CWA. Any
convection along the dryline could form into an MCS at night and
approach/move into the region...with additional daytime
thunderstorm chances as the weak impulses interact with any
leftover outflow boundaries. These conditions along with a
continued unstable atmosphere will allow at least limited severe
potentials through Thursday over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas.

Latest model solutions continue to show the wave over the
Southwest United States finally lifting into the Plains
Friday...thus increasing thunderstorm chances again for the CWA.
Indications are that the wave could possibly move into the region
during the morning hours which could help to limit severe
potential...though with this several days away...will continue to
monitor latest data as this set up could likely change back-and-
forth several times. For the upcoming weekend...thunderstorm
chances will continue to be possible as another wave looks to
quickly develop and lift out of the Southwest United States into
the Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  84  71 /  50  40  30  40
FSM   83  67  83  71 /  40  30  30  30
MLC   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30
BVO   80  67  83  69 /  50  40  30  40
FYV   80  64  80  67 /  40  30  40  30
BYV   81  63  80  66 /  50  30  40  30
MKO   81  67  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
MIO   81  66  81  68 /  50  30  30  30
F10   80  68  83  70 /  50  30  30  40
HHW   82  69  83  71 /  60  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 230444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Convection across western OK will make a run at eastern OK and
have introduced VCTS for the OK TAF sites around 10z...with
VCSH for the AR sites toward 15z. While brief MVFR conditions
can`t be ruled out...expect mainly VFR through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Ongoing thunderstorms in the eastern panhandles making slow
eastward progress. The expectation continues that much of this
will diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma, with perhaps only
areas along and west of Highway 75 seeing any remnants. Of this
area, it appears that parts of southeast Oklahoma would be the
most favored at this point, given recent data from the HRRR and
current location of the most developed area of convection. Have
made a few minor tweaks to the POPs after 06Z to account for this
thinking, as well as minor changes to the Sky grids to spread
cloud cover into northwest Arkansas faster. Updated forecast
products coming soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible for eastern OK TAF sites late tonight
and into Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge is shifting off to the east and we will be under
the influence of the western U.S. trough for at least the next
week or so. The dryline will remain well to our west for most of
the week, but we will be at risk of seeing at least the remnants
of any storms that develop well to our west making it far enough
east to affect us. Weak impulses moving out of the western trough
may also trigger scattered showers and storms within our forecast
area just about any day this week. Instability will be sufficient
for severe storms, especially from Tuesday on.

The main upper system will finally lift northeast into the central
Plains by Friday, perhaps 12 hours or so sooner than it appeared
at this time yesterday. Thus Friday will likely see the greatest
precipitation coverage, and greatest severe weather risk, of the
week.

Even after this system lifts out, another trough develops near the
West Coast, and the dryline gets left behind to our west, so storm
chances will continue through next weekend, as will the warm and
humid conditions.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  83  69  85 /  10  40  30  30
FSM   62  86  67  84 /  10  30  20  30
MLC   67  83  70  82 /  20  30  30  30
BVO   64  82  67  84 /  10  40  30  30
FYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
BYV   58  82  64  80 /   0  20  20  30
MKO   63  83  68  83 /  10  30  30  30
MIO   63  83  67  82 /  10  30  30  30
F10   66  82  69  83 /  20  40  30  30
HHW   65  85  69  84 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





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