000
FXUS64 KTSA 241057
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WET AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE PLAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHWEST TX IS
SPREADING HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVER OK AND AR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COOL EASTERLY WIND PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS THIS
MORNING. WITH NO APPRECIABLE FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TODAY I
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING
A WEAK UPPER LOW OR POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS DOWN SOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY LOW
END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AND THE TRANSITION TO
A SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND DEEP
LAYER THICKNESSES INCREASE...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE CAP STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE STAYS WELL WEST...AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY.
SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE PLAINS. AN EXTENDED UPPER JET LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC OCEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DIG AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SEVERE WEATHER.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KTSA 240932
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES OVER THE PLAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHWEST TX IS
SPREADING HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVER OK AND AR EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COOL EASTERLY WIND PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS THIS
MORNING. WITH NO APPRECIABLE FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLAY TODAY I
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING
A WEAK UPPER LOW OR POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCV FROM THE MCS DOWN SOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY LOW
END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...AND THE TRANSITION TO
A SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND DEEP
LAYER THICKNESSES INCREASE...SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPRESSED. THE CAP STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE STAYS WELL WEST...AND WE WILL
REMAIN DRY.
SOME CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE PLAINS. AN EXTENDED UPPER JET LIES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THIS JET WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC OCEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL EVENTUALLY DIG AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE SEVERE WEATHER.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 62 82 66 / 10 10 20 20
FSM 79 57 84 63 / 10 10 20 20
MLC 77 61 81 65 / 10 10 20 20
BVO 76 59 83 64 / 10 10 20 20
FYV 72 53 77 61 / 10 10 20 20
BYV 70 51 77 60 / 0 10 20 20
MKO 78 58 81 65 / 10 10 20 20
MIO 76 57 80 63 / 10 10 20 20
F10 78 61 82 65 / 10 10 20 20
HHW 80 62 82 65 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 240524
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS
NE OK. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS AND LOTS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. HAVE
PROB30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 240206
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 232312
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... AN ONGOING BUT WEAKENING AREA OF RAINFALL WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 1Z. AFTER THAT... ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL CHANCES EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE PROB 30 GROUPS IN THE AFFECTED TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS FESTERED ALL DAY IN ZONE OF
RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NCNTRL INTO ECNTRL OK. HRRR
MODEL AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGES THIS ACTIVITY...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE TOWARD 00Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
AREAL SHRINKAGE...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING
ON EARLY EVENING POPS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT SE OK LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH BEST
RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.
WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
BROAD RIDGE WILL WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDER WEAK SWLY UPPER FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF WEST COAST UPPER TROF. HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEXT WEEK DRY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING WELL WEST AND
NORTH. STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 232018
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS FESTERED ALL DAY IN ZONE OF
RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NCNTRL INTO ECNTRL OK. HRRR
MODEL AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGES THIS ACTIVITY...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE TOWARD 00Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
AREAL SHRINKAGE...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING
ON EARLY EVENING POPS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT SE OK LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH BEST
RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.
WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
BROAD RIDGE WILL WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDER WEAK SWLY UPPER FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF WEST COAST UPPER TROF. HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEXT WEEK DRY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING WELL WEST AND
NORTH. STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 58 78 62 83 / 40 20 10 20
FSM 60 77 57 81 / 10 10 10 20
MLC 62 78 61 82 / 40 20 10 20
BVO 55 77 59 83 / 30 30 10 30
FYV 54 74 53 79 / 10 10 10 20
BYV 52 72 51 79 / 10 10 10 20
MKO 59 78 58 83 / 30 20 10 20
MIO 54 77 57 83 / 10 20 10 20
F10 61 79 61 82 / 50 20 10 20
HHW 64 79 62 81 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231736
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY AFFECT
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...VFR TO BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TSA CWA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE
AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES AREA-WIDE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231547
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1047 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TSA CWA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE
AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES AREA-WIDE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 231125
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...WITH KMLC MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY A STORM THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW LOW LEVEL AND UPPER
JETS TEAMING TO PRODUCE LINE OF CONVECTION NORTHWEST
OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL / SOUTHEAST OK. HOW MUCH OF THAT
TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN OK..NORTHWEST AR IS FORECAST
QUESTION OF THE DAY. NEITHER HR3 NOR LOCAL MODEL HAS
GRASP ON CURRENT ACTION. WILL PUNT ON THIS ONE WITH
CHANCE POPS AND LET DAY SHIFT AMEND AS NEEDED.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH TO
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDES LITTLE
SHELTER FROM CHANCE PRECIPITATION. PWA VALUES 1.25
TO 1.50...MINOR WAVES..CERTAIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
DEFIES MUCH FORECAST DEFINITION THIS CYCLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENERGY DROPS INTO
DESSERT SOUTHWEST..PUMPING UP MOIST GULF RIDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD GET INTERESTING AS THAT
ALL TRANSLATES EAST. GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230915
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW LOW LEVEL AND UPPER
JETS TEAMING TO PRODUCE LINE OF CONVECTION NORTHWEST
OK TO SOUTH CENTRAL / SOUTHEAST OK. HOW MUCH OF THAT
TRANSLATES INTO EASTERN OK..NORTHWEST AR IS FORECAST
QUESTION OF THE DAY. NEITHER HR3 NOR LOCAL MODEL HAS
GRASP ON CURRENT ACTION. WILL PUNT ON THIS ONE WITH
CHANCE POPS AND LET DAY SHIFT AMEND AS NEEDED.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH TO
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDES LITTLE
SHELTER FROM CHANCE PRECIPITATION. PWA VALUES 1.25
TO 1.50...MINOR WAVES..CERTAIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
DEFIES MUCH FORECAST DEFINITION THIS CYCLE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENERGY DROPS INTO
DESSERT SOUTHWEST..PUMPING UP MOIST GULF RIDGE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD GET INTERESTING AS THAT
ALL TRANSLATES EAST. GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 81 58 78 63 / 20 20 40 20
FSM 83 60 79 57 / 20 20 20 0
MLC 83 63 78 61 / 30 20 20 20
BVO 78 57 75 59 / 20 20 40 30
FYV 78 54 75 54 / 30 10 20 0
BYV 78 51 73 53 / 30 10 10 0
MKO 81 59 78 58 / 20 20 20 10
MIO 77 54 77 59 / 30 20 20 10
F10 81 61 78 62 / 30 20 30 20
HHW 86 66 79 63 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230457
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO GROUP
FOR PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AT NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES. OTHERWISE... LIGHT WINDS AND MID CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT THIS EVENING TO MAINLY TWEAK SHORT TERM
TEMP/DEW-POINT HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230232
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT THIS EVENING TO MAINLY TWEAK SHORT TERM
TEMP/DEW-POINT HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 222325
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WET GROUND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE... WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
BROKEN MID CLOUD DECK PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT...ESSENTIALLY A DEW POINT BOUNDARY...REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SNCTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
N...WITH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE N OF
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE POSITION FAVORS BEST MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR
WEST.
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHUNT BETTER
MOISTURE EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LOW POPS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH
VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR TEMPS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 222029
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT...ESSENTIALLY A DEW POINT BOUNDARY...REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SNCTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
N...WITH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE N OF
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE POSITION FAVORS BEST MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR
WEST.
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHUNT BETTER
MOISTURE EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LOW POPS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH
VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 79 58 78 / 0 20 10 20
FSM 60 80 58 78 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 59 79 63 79 / 0 20 10 20
BVO 51 76 54 78 / 0 20 10 20
FYV 52 76 54 74 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 53 76 51 73 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 58 78 59 78 / 0 20 10 20
MIO 54 76 54 77 / 0 10 10 10
F10 58 79 60 79 / 10 20 10 20
HHW 61 83 65 80 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A
KJLN-KRVS-KOUN LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND SHIFT
THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 79 58 78 / 0 20 10 20
FSM 60 80 60 78 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 59 79 63 79 / 0 20 10 20
BVO 51 76 56 78 / 0 20 10 20
FYV 52 76 55 74 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 53 76 53 73 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 58 78 59 78 / 0 10 10 20
MIO 54 76 55 77 / 0 10 10 10
F10 58 79 60 79 / 10 20 10 20
HHW 61 83 65 80 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221721
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KXNA AND KFYV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT KTUL.
KFSM WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A DRY DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL. DARBY
QPF FOOTPRINT ALGORITHM APPLIED TO MAX TEMPS.
ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS INTENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY. RETURN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH RIDGE ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS
YIELDS CHANCE POPS. LEANED TOWARD SUPERIOR
ECMWF AND ITS WETTER SOLUTION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINS LOW
OR MARGINAL POP WITH LITTLE TO DELINEATE DRY
WEATHER FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEATHER. MUST BE
LATE SPRING. GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221127
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT KTUL.
KFSM WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A DRY DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL. DARBY
QPF FOOTPRINT ALGORITHM APPLIED TO MAX TEMPS.
ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS INTENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY. RETURN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH RIDGE ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS
YIELDS CHANCE POPS. LEANED TOWARD SUPERIOR
ECMWF AND ITS WETTER SOLUTION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINS LOW
OR MARGINAL POP WITH LITTLE TO DELINEATE DRY
WEATHER FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEATHER. MUST BE
LATE SPRING. GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220926
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A DRY DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL. DARBY
QPF FOOTPRINT ALGORITHM APPLIED TO MAX TEMPS.
ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS INTENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER FORECAST AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY. RETURN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH RIDGE ALONG WITH
MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN PAST COUPLE DAYS
YIELDS CHANCE POPS. LEANED TOWARD SUPERIOR
ECMWF AND ITS WETTER SOLUTION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINTAINS LOW
OR MARGINAL POP WITH LITTLE TO DELINEATE DRY
WEATHER FROM SLIGHT CHANCE WEATHER. MUST BE
LATE SPRING. GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 20 10
FSM 79 60 80 60 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 79 62 81 63 / 0 0 20 20
BVO 76 53 75 56 / 0 0 30 10
FYV 74 54 75 55 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 74 56 75 53 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 78 59 78 59 / 0 0 20 10
MIO 75 56 75 55 / 0 0 10 10
F10 79 60 78 60 / 0 0 20 20
HHW 81 63 85 65 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220457
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING SOON AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AND WITH
THE SATURATED CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE DOWN AT KMLC AND
KFSM WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. NEVERTHELESS...VSBYS
WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER FOR A TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY EVERYWHERE.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS DRY AIR
PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
ALL BUT THE EASTERN MOST SLIVER OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO CLEARED
SKIES A LITTLE FASTER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RAIN/STORMS ARE MOVING OUT...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING. DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINS AND WET GROUND...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. THINK THE FOG WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST OK
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL SO I HAVE BROUGHT KMLC DOWN TO IFR
VSBY. THE HYDROLAPSE BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO FOR
NOW STAYED CONSERVATIVE ON VSBYS AT THE OTHER SITES.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS THAT HAS FORMED AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM SURGING
ACROSS OK/TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN OK. THE
LINE HAS BEEN STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE SO FAR...AND STILL COULD SEE
SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS SHOWN A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXITING OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z-23Z. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TAKE A
LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE FINAL DECISION. OTHERWISE...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND WORKED OVER TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BY DEEP UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WITH AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED ACROSS WRN SECTIONS IN THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOME ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRL PLAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW...SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK/NW AR. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH
DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL CHANCE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 81 58 78 / 10 0 10 20
FSM 58 83 62 81 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 55 83 61 84 / 10 0 10 20
BVO 52 81 54 77 / 10 0 10 20
FYV 54 79 55 76 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 56 79 55 77 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 55 82 60 79 / 10 10 10 20
MIO 54 78 56 78 / 10 10 10 10
F10 55 82 61 79 / 10 0 10 20
HHW 60 85 64 85 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220217
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
917 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS DRY AIR
PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
ALL BUT THE EASTERN MOST SLIVER OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO CLEARED
SKIES A LITTLE FASTER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RAIN/STORMS ARE MOVING OUT...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING. DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINS AND WET GROUND...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. THINK THE FOG WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST OK
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL SO I HAVE BROUGHT KMLC DOWN TO IFR
VSBY. THE HYDROLAPSE BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO FOR
NOW STAYED CONSERVATIVE ON VSBYS AT THE OTHER SITES.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS THAT HAS FORMED AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM SURGING
ACROSS OK/TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN OK. THE
LINE HAS BEEN STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE SO FAR...AND STILL COULD SEE
SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS SHOWN A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXITING OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z-23Z. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TAKE A
LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE FINAL DECISION. OTHERWISE...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND WORKED OVER TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BY DEEP UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WITH AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED ACROSS WRN SECTIONS IN THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOME ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRL PLAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW...SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK/NW AR. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH
DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL CHANCE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 212348
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
RAIN/STORMS ARE MOVING OUT...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING. DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINS AND WET GROUND...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. THINK THE FOG WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OVER SOUTHEAST OK
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL SO I HAVE BROUGHT KMLC DOWN TO IFR
VSBY. THE HYDROLAPSE BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO FOR
NOW STAYED CONSERVATIVE ON VSBYS AT THE OTHER SITES.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS THAT HAS FORMED AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM SURGING
ACROSS OK/TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN OK. THE
LINE HAS BEEN STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE SO FAR...AND STILL COULD SEE
SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS SHOWN A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXITING OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z-23Z. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TAKE A
LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE FINAL DECISION. OTHERWISE...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND WORKED OVER TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BY DEEP UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WITH AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED ACROSS WRN SECTIONS IN THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOME ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRL PLAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW...SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK/NW AR. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH
DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL CHANCE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 81 58 78 / 10 0 10 20
FSM 58 83 62 81 / 60 10 10 10
MLC 55 83 61 84 / 20 0 10 20
BVO 52 81 54 77 / 10 0 10 20
FYV 54 79 55 76 / 70 10 10 10
BYV 56 79 55 77 / 70 10 10 10
MKO 55 82 60 79 / 20 10 10 20
MIO 54 78 56 78 / 20 10 10 10
F10 55 82 61 79 / 10 0 10 20
HHW 60 85 64 85 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 212012
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS THAT HAS FORMED AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM SURGING
ACROSS OK/TX IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN OK. THE
LINE HAS BEEN STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE SO FAR...AND STILL COULD SEE
SOME 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS SHOWN A
VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX...WITH THE LEADING EDGE EXITING OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z-23Z. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z...ALTHOUGH MAY EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS. WILL TAKE A
LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE FINAL DECISION. OTHERWISE...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND WORKED OVER TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY MID-TO-LATE
WEEK...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS SANDWICHED BY DEEP UPPER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND THE EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WITH AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED ACROSS WRN SECTIONS IN THE VERY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN SOME ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRL PLAINS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW...SHOULD SEE PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
EPISODES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK/NW AR. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH
DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED GENERAL CHANCE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 81 58 78 / 40 0 10 20
FSM 58 83 62 81 / 80 10 10 10
MLC 55 83 61 84 / 40 0 10 20
BVO 52 81 54 77 / 20 0 10 20
FYV 54 79 55 76 / 80 10 10 10
BYV 56 79 55 77 / 80 10 10 10
MKO 55 82 60 79 / 60 10 10 20
MIO 54 78 56 78 / 50 10 10 10
F10 55 82 61 79 / 30 0 10 20
HHW 60 85 64 85 / 50 0 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 211723
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CEILINGS WILL BE RATHER ERRATIC OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP
AFTER THE INITIAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...IF A STORM CAN
BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 211602
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1102 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...IF A STORM CAN
BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
| 
