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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FRIDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310234
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WERE COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA. TO THE NORTH...A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS COULD ALSO
REACH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND TO ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

THIS COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS LOWS SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302323
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE
ARKANSAS TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302022
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OK AND INTO EXTREME NW
ARKANSAS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS. COLDEST AIR CONTINUES
TO LAG WELL BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT BUT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
FRIDAY...TEMPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST FREEZE IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED RIGHT OVER E OK/W AR...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE LIKELY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF FAR SE
OKLAHOMA. TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
ALSO HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THIS
LENDS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND FREEZE WARNING TO ALL BUT
CHOCTAW COUNTY...WHERE A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED...BUT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY THERE AS WELL.

SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A MILDER NIGHT SAT
NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY AGAIN DROP TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY NOVEMBER BY
THIS TIME WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED MON-TUE. SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST BY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  58  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  59  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  50  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  49  22  53 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  48  24  52 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   45  55  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  49  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   47  55  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  62  32  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ053.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 301713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SE OK AND WC AR. ANY -RA/-TSRA
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY W-NW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301709
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AFTERNOON ZONES REFLECT SHIFTING LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
BEHIND FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION.
REST OF FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 301528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATE REFLECTED ADDING POPS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NE OK/ NW AR. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...WITH MOST SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. AT A MINIMUM...A
LATER UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO AMEND TEMPORAL WORDING FROM THE
ZONE TEXT...SO WILL ADDRESS OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS SHOULD THEY BE
REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300804
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER NICE/MILD DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER CONDITIONS INTO
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS INCREASE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FREEZE
WATCH AS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A
HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 20S.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ WITH UPPER RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW PLUME
OF DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
GENERALLY WENT BETWEEN THE TWO CONCERNING FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  44  55  28 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   73  48  61  30 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   77  49  61  29 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   74  41  54  22 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   71  41  52  23 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   70  44  49  26 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   75  45  57  27 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   72  42  50  24 /  10   0   0   0
F10   75  47  57  28 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   76  47  65  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ065-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
     ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300444
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300149
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
849 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST...A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MOVING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA TEXAS PANHANDLES.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR
THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON TONIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN AID TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S. THOUGH WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS
OVERALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIGURATION SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AND WILL
ADD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO TEMP/WIND GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  73  43  55 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   43  74  46  61 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   45  75  47  60 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   39  75  38  53 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  70  39  52 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  70  43  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   43  74  43  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   42  72  40  51 /   0  10   0   0
F10   45  75  45  57 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   43  75  46  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 292330
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT
AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING
AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 292020
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS PROVIDED THE REGION WITH A NEAR PERFECT
AUTUMN DAY. SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RULE TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DRY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
COLD FRONT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY PREVAILS. A HARD
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERLY PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END ON
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PUTTING
AND END TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  73  43  55 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   43  74  46  61 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   45  75  47  60 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   39  75  38  53 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  70  39  52 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   43  70  43  51 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   43  74  43  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   42  72  40  51 /   0  10   0   0
F10   45  75  45  57 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   43  75  46  64 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291651
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS ARE TRACKING
TOWARDS AFTERNOON MAXES. QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291537
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS FIRST PERIOD ELEMENTS ARE TRACKING
TOWARDS AFTERNOON MAXES. QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER MO/AR WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTIES OBVIOUSLY REMAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THAT A FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER MO/AR WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. THIS HOWEVER WILL DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTIES OBVIOUSLY REMAIN THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  48  73  43 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   73  44  73  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   74  45  74  47 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   72  39  74  38 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   68  39  71  40 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   67  43  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   72  43  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   69  42  71  40 /   0   0  10   0
F10   72  45  74  45 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   74  43  74  47 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290401
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VERY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS
BEING MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FALLING INTO THE 30S. LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S COULD
OBSERVE SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL
AND ADDED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
SKY/TEMP/WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  71  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  72  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   45  74  45  75 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  68  38  70 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   43  72  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   41  69  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
F10   43  72  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  74  43  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290401
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VERY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS
BEING MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FALLING INTO THE 30S. LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S COULD
OBSERVE SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL
AND ADDED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
SKY/TEMP/WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  71  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  72  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   45  74  45  75 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  68  38  70 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   43  72  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   41  69  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
F10   43  72  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  74  43  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINED OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
ALSO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS
BEING MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLER SPOTS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FALLING INTO THE 30S. LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S COULD
OBSERVE SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL
AND ADDED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
SKY/TEMP/WIND GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  71  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  72  44  73 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   45  74  45  75 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  68  38  70 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  42  69 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   43  72  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   41  69  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
F10   43  72  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  74  43  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW. OTHER THAN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...SKIES
WILL CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 40S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT...KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  71  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  72  44  73 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   45  74  45  75 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  68  38  70 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  42  69 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   43  72  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   41  69  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
F10   43  72  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  74  43  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW. OTHER THAN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...SKIES
WILL CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 40S AND 30S OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT...KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  71  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   45  72  44  73 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   45  74  45  75 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   35  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  68  38  70 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   42  67  42  69 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   43  72  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   41  69  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
F10   43  72  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   49  74  43  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281704
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KFSM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...AND UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS SAGGED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY. ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDER ARE WELL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY STAY AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AREAS...BUT GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT LEVELS...THE GOING FORECAST
MAY BE OKAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MLC/FYV LINE. MAIN PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF/MODEST
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD/CANADIAN AIR-MASS SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATX JUST BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIODS TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK...AND UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS SAGGED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY. ONGOING RAIN
AND THUNDER ARE WELL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY STAY AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AREAS...BUT GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGHS
ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT LEVELS...THE GOING FORECAST
MAY BE OKAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MLC/FYV LINE. MAIN PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF/MODEST
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD/CANADIAN AIR-MASS SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATX JUST BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIODS TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281054
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MLC/FYV LINE. MAIN PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF/MODEST
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD/CANADIAN AIR-MASS SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATX JUST BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIODS TUE/WED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280807
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MLC/FYV LINE. MAIN PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z WITH ONLY LINGERING
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF/MODEST
WARM UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD/CANADIAN AIR-MASS SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE COLDER GFS/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TIMING WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF...WHICH DEVELOPS STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ARKLATX JUST BEYOND
THE EXTENDED PERIODS TUE/WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  71  46 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   71  45  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   73  45  73  44 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   72  39  71  40 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   70  41  68  38 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   69  43  67  43 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   72  44  73  43 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   70  43  69  40 /  10   0   0   0
F10   71  44  72  46 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   73  49  74  43 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12







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