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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 300445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
834 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...
AS OF MID-EVENING...OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA ESEWD TOWARD MCALESTER TO BETWEEN
WISTER AND TALIHINA. SFC CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE MODEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BLOSSOMED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...FOLLOWING REPEATED INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS AND RELATED
THERMODYNAMIC MODULATIONS.

THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB SAMPLES STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /35 KT AROUND 300 MB/
FOSTERING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION FOR
SUSTAINED TSTMS FROM SRN PITTSBURG COUNTY TO NRN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
TO SRN LE FLORE COUNTY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
CDT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK OWING TO H85-H5 LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. AROUND
THAT TIME AND THEREAFTER...NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING WILL FACILITATE
GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY SUCH THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AMIDST NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES
ALOFT...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THESE ANTICIPATED
WEATHER/CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

AMBURN/COHEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SE OK WILL REMAIN ON
PERIPHERY OF UPWARD INFLUENCE FROM COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER FAR NW AR. AN ISOLATED STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID EVENING UNTIL INHIBITION
STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS EXPAND EASTWARD TUES/WED SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD RESULTING IN HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NUMERICAL DATA THAT CONVECTION WILL IGNITE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.
OUTFLOW AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY BY
WED AFTERNOON HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THIS INFLUENCE THERMAL FIELDS
SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

HEIGHTS FALL BY LATE WEEK W/ A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
NE OK LATE THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND AIDING IN ITS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADVANCE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE AND
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND/OR LOSES DEFINITION ACROSS THE
REGION. A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS LIKELY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   71  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   70  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   63  96  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   64  91  71  88 /   0  10  10  40
MKO   69  95  74  92 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  94  76  93 /   0  10  20  30
F10   70  95  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   71  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291644
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK BOUNDARY JUST S OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. MLC MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED...BUT WITH COVERAGE IN QUESTION...WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS
THERE. FSM MAY BE IMPACTED AS WELL...BUT SINCE THAT TERMINAL IS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT PRESENT...WILL LEAVE ALL MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
WHERE A LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST. LATEST DATA AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
GOING POP/WX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SO NO IMMEDIATE PLANS TO
CHANGE THESE FORECAST ELEMENTS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WILL UPDATE FORECAST PRODUCTS ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  70  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   94  72  95  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   92  71  93  75 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   92  63  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   88  60  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   88  64  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   89  70  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   91  65  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
F10   92  72  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
HHW   92  72  93  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290826
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. A FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAPERING OFF AND A RETURN TO MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  70  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   94  72  95  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   92  71  93  75 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   92  63  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   88  60  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   88  64  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   89  70  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   91  65  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
F10   92  72  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
HHW   92  72  93  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290408
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THE 06Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT PROB30`S FOR STORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WEAK FRONT ACRS SE OK/W
CNTRL AR...AFFECTING THE KMLC AND KFSM TAF SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A DOWN
TREND AND NO LONGER A THREAT.  WATCH FOR PORTIONS NE
OK AND NW AR DROPPED WITH ZONE UPDATE. STILL LOW LOW
CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282256
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN
MID CLOUD WITH CIGS GENERALLY AOA 8KFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BOUNDARY. CHANCE OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF EXCPT KBVO AND POSSIBLY KROG/KXNA WHERE A VCTS MENTION
IS INCLUDED CLOSER TO KS AND MO BORDERS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 282039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE KS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE BOUNDARY. PRECEDING
AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER
AND 30-40KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER
FORCING COUPLED WITH A RATHER QUICK STRENGTHENING OF INHIBITION
AROUND SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY PUSHES TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND FOCUSING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIMARILY FOR
SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

UPPER RIDGING / WARMING PROFILES SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE PUSHED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WARMEST MID LEVEL TEMPS. A STRONG WAVE LOOKS TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NE OK DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL REDUCE THE HEAT AND GIVE MOST PLACES A GOOD
SHOT AT PRECIP SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   66  93  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
FYV   66  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  88  65  90 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   69  89  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   67  91  66  93 /  30   0   0   0
F10   69  91  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   69  91  72  93 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT FOR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY...LEADING TO ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE HIGH. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS IN HAND SO NO
UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281103
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG THIS EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ON MONDAY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  91  71 /   0  20  10  10
FSM   89  67  92  72 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   89  68  92  71 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   89  65  91  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   85  63  87  66 /   0  20  10  10
BYV   84  65  87  68 /   0  20  10  10
MKO   87  66  90  70 /   0  20  20  10
MIO   87  65  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
F10   87  67  91  71 /   0  10  30  20
HHW   89  68  90  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 00Z FORECAST. AS SUGGESTED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING FOG
THICKNESS TONIGHT OVER IN NW AR...AND I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280355
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 00Z FORECAST. AS SUGGESTED IN MY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING FOG
THICKNESS TONIGHT OVER IN NW AR...AND I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT DIRECTION. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280245
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGE. QUIET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   65  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   61  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   58  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   59  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   64  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   61  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   64  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUCK PRIMARILY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. FOG
WAS AN ISSUE LAST NIGHT OVER IN PARTS OF NW AR...ESPECIALLY AT
KFYV...AND THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THAT AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST
RAP13 MODEL RH PLOTS DO NOT SHOW AS FAVORABLE A HYDROLAPSE
TONIGHT...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THICK THE FOG WILL
GET. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE RIDGING
IN PLACE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271940
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271940
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271940
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271940
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HOWEVER WEAK FORCING ALOFT
AND LIMITED CONVERGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIP COVERAGE LOW.

THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS YIELDING HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FLATTENED
SOMEWHAT AND SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DATA REMAIN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE SFC FRONTAL SURGE WILL
BE...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE PERSISTENT SFC FOCUS WARRANTS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  91  70  92 /   0   0  20  10
FSM   66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  88  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   62  90  67  92 /   0  10  20  10
FYV   59  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   60  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   65  87  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   62  88  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
F10   65  88  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  88  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALSO AT THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
TOMORROW. FYV SHOULD BE MOST AFFECTED BY FOG WHERE LIFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALSO AT THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
TOMORROW. FYV SHOULD BE MOST AFFECTED BY FOG WHERE LIFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COOL FRONT. EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271059
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270817
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  89  69 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   86  66  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   84  61  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   86  59  91  65 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   81  56  85  62 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   80  58  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   83  64  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   83  60  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
F10   84  63  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   87  65  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270817
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MILDER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WHICH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE AREA.

STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MCS EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  89  69 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   86  66  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   84  61  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   86  59  91  65 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   81  56  85  62 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   80  58  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   83  64  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   83  60  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
F10   84  63  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   87  65  88  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





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