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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  20
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  20
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  20
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

AFTER SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  72  92  73 /  60  50  20  20
FSM   91  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   90  73  90  72 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   88  69  92  69 /  60  50  10  20
FYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  30  20
BYV   86  69  86  68 /  60  60  40  20
MKO   87  71  90  71 /  60  50  30  10
MIO   85  70  89  70 /  60  50  30  20
F10   89  72  90  72 /  50  40  20  10
HHW   93  73  90  73 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY... AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290228
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP FADED FAST AS IT APPROACHED EASTERN OK MUCH
AS SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS SUGGESTED...AND SECOND SURGE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER WESTERN
KS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL TREND OF GOING FORECAST
COVERS THIS FAIRLY WELL. UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY TO REFLECT
TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  50  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  40  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99









000
FXUS64 KTSA 282312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
OKLAHOMA SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...
AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE MAY
TEMPORARILY FALL TO MVFR NEAR ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  30  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH END OF THIS
WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.8 LIKELY TO
MAKE  UPWARDS OF  ONE HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION
ALL AREAS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
WAVE WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE INTO EASTERN OK...BUT
RATHER  STRETCH OUT  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS  TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  BY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NOT A WASH OUT FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BUT NONETHELESS CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

WESTERLY FLOW ON LABOR DAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KANSAS PUTS NORTHERN BORDER
AREAS AT RISK FOR CHANCE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  70  70  40  20
FSM   74  90  73  90 /  30  60  50  60
MLC   74  89  73  90 /  50  60  40  50
BVO   69  87  68  91 /  70  70  40  10
FYV   67  86  70  86 /  30  60  60  40
BYV   68  86  70  86 /  20  60  60  40
MKO   72  87  72  89 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   72  86  70  88 /  30  70  50  30
F10   72  89  72  89 /  70  70  40  40
HHW   72  90  73  90 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
75...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...LATE IN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
SOUTH SURFACE WIND 6-10KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 29/18Z.

LZK/55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281639 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  72  88  72 /  10  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /  10  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /  10  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /  10  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /  10  40  70  50
MIO   93  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /  10  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281639 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY ONCE AGAIN
THIS THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS ENERGY WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. UPDATES GOING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  72  88  72 /  10  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /  10  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /  10  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /  10  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /  10  40  70  50
MIO   93  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /  10  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GREATER CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR AFTER 06Z. THUS...WILL ADD PROB30
GROUPS TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  73  88  72 /   0  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /   0  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /   0  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /   0  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /   0  40  70  50
MIO   92  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /   0  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280821
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE HOT AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER CHANGES. HIGHS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASILY EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS MOVING EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY. POPS
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW 90 IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

THE LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE
REGIME OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED PV MAX LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF DATA NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL BEFORE REALLY PENETRATING INTO OUR
AREA...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. WITH BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW...I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THAT BOUNDARY
RETREATS NORTH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS BACK OVER OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS BY MIDWEEK...SO A RETURN TO SOME HOT AND DRY WEATHER
DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OFFING TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  87  71 /  10  50  70  50
FSM   94  73  88  72 /   0  20  70  50
MLC   93  73  88  71 /   0  50  60  40
BVO   95  68  87  65 /  10  50  70  50
FYV   92  67  83  68 /   0  20  70  50
BYV   92  68  84  69 /   0  20  70  50
MKO   94  71  86  70 /   0  40  70  50
MIO   92  71  84  68 /  10  30  70  50
F10   92  71  85  70 /   0  50  70  50
HHW   93  72  91  72 /   0  30  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 280453
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN FORECAST. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E OK JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 280144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS...FOR THE MOST PART...DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 272311
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
THU AFTER 18Z BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE..SHOWN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL BE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND HOT ON THURSDAY BEFORE
UPPER WAVE IMPACTS OUR REGION. UPPER WAVE BRINGS PRECIP
CHANCES  LATE THURSDAY... AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS H500
ENERGY COMBINES WITH AMPLE 1.50-1.75 PRECIPITABLE WATER.
RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED  IF RAISED MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

MODELS ONLY TEASE FORECAST AREA WITH AN CHANCE FOR COOL
FRONT FAR NORTHEAST OK MONDAY.

SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD WAVE ROTATING FROM THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA  INTO THE CANADIAN  PRAIRIE EARLY  NEXT
WEEK TO KEEP PRECIP  CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PARKED NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  95  73  87 /   0   0  50  70
FSM   73  94  73  88 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   71  92  74  88 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   69  95  68  86 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   66  90  66  82 /  10   0  20  60
BYV   69  91  68  83 /   0   0  20  40
MKO   69  93  72  84 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   69  94  71  84 /  10   0  20  60
F10   71  93  71  87 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   70  93  73  90 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271642
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS SO
NO MENTION IS NEEDED IN THE ZONE FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THOUGH WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL NOT CARRY
A MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 270828
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 270828
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTHWEST AR BEFORE ERODING IN THE COMING DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM 2M TEMPS HAVE
DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL STICK
WITH IT AGAIN TODAY...SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THAN
YESTERDAY...RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF COURSE. THERE WAS SOME ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BASED ON
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE GOING ON ALOFT AND SUPPORT FROM BOTH LOCAL
WRF MODEL RUNS...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INSERT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSTORM MENTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP
UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TO START NEXT WEEK...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP BY TUESDAY. THE POP FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
ALIGNS WITH THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON DROPPING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE MAKING DEEPER PENETRATION INTO THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE A SIGN OF THE UPCOMING CHANGE OF
SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   96  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   95  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   97  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  40
FYV   92  67  91  68 /  10  10   0  20
BYV   92  68  91  68 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   96  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  30
F10   95  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 270450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 270450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 270227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 270227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER NEAR FAR NE OK / FAR NW AR
HOWEVER COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE TEMP TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK W/ LOW TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262313
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORMAL
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED
TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 262008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 262008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ALLOW A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  96  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   73  95  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   72  95  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   70  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   68  92  67  91 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   70  93  69  92 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   71  94  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   71  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10
F10   73  94  71  93 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   72  95  70  94 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261625
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IS RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BUT THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF
SITES FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
HURRICANES...ONE IN THE PACIFIC AND ONE IN THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LOW IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW AND WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ON STRONG THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE BROKEN DOWN ON ITS WEST SIDE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BRING A POTENTIALLY SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE AND SLIDE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF
THINGS TO COME AS WE APPROACH THE FALL SEASON. AS A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS
FRONT WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   98  74  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   97  73  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  69  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   97  69  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   94  70  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   96  72  97  71 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   97  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
F10   97  73  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   96  73  96  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






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