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000
FXUS64 KTSA 311045
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SPORADIC MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS EXPECTED
BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK
TODAY AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO SE OK AND POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL AR.
OTHERWISE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN EXISTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING A RAPID RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL FORECASTS HAD INDICATED.
DESPITE THIS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INDICATE SOME PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS HAVE COME UP ENOUGH
THAT FOG DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY EITHER SO THAT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID AFTERNOON...THEREBY AIDING IN
A QUICK WARMUP. THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL HELP THAT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
A LARGER PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE
FRONT WILL STALL FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAYS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  80  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   83  59  78  61 /  20  20  40  20
MLC   81  62  77  64 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   82  55  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   78  54  75  60 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   76  55  74  59 /  20  10  30  20
MKO   81  59  78  62 /  10  20  40  20
MIO   78  56  78  61 /  10  10  30  20
F10   81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   79  61  77  62 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING A RAPID RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL FORECASTS HAD INDICATED.
DESPITE THIS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INDICATE SOME PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS HAVE COME UP ENOUGH
THAT FOG DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY EITHER SO THAT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID AFTERNOON...THEREBY AIDING IN
A QUICK WARMUP. THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL HELP THAT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
A LARGER PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE
FRONT WILL STALL FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAYS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  80  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   83  59  78  61 /  20  20  40  20
MLC   81  62  77  64 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   82  55  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   78  54  75  60 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   76  55  74  59 /  20  10  30  20
MKO   81  59  78  62 /  10  20  40  20
MIO   78  56  78  61 /  10  10  30  20
F10   81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   79  61  77  62 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING A RAPID RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL FORECASTS HAD INDICATED.
DESPITE THIS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INDICATE SOME PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS HAVE COME UP ENOUGH
THAT FOG DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY EITHER SO THAT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID AFTERNOON...THEREBY AIDING IN
A QUICK WARMUP. THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL HELP THAT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
A LARGER PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE
FRONT WILL STALL FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAYS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  80  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   83  59  78  61 /  20  20  40  20
MLC   81  62  77  64 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   82  55  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   78  54  75  60 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   76  55  74  59 /  20  10  30  20
MKO   81  59  78  62 /  10  20  40  20
MIO   78  56  78  61 /  10  10  30  20
F10   81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   79  61  77  62 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING A RAPID RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL FORECASTS HAD INDICATED.
DESPITE THIS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INDICATE SOME PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS HAVE COME UP ENOUGH
THAT FOG DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY EITHER SO THAT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID AFTERNOON...THEREBY AIDING IN
A QUICK WARMUP. THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL HELP THAT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
A LARGER PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE
FRONT WILL STALL FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAYS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  80  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   83  59  78  61 /  20  20  40  20
MLC   81  62  77  64 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   82  55  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   78  54  75  60 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   76  55  74  59 /  20  10  30  20
MKO   81  59  78  62 /  10  20  40  20
MIO   78  56  78  61 /  10  10  30  20
F10   81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   79  61  77  62 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING A RAPID RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING...MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN MODEL FORECASTS HAD INDICATED.
DESPITE THIS...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR FAILED TO
MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INDICATE SOME PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS HAVE COME UP ENOUGH
THAT FOG DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY EITHER SO THAT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PROBABLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. SOME LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST LARGELY OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND LIKELY EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES...AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE LOWER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID AFTERNOON...THEREBY AIDING IN
A QUICK WARMUP. THE WARM START THIS MORNING WILL HELP THAT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
A LARGER PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS EXPECTED VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.

THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH LARGELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...THE
FRONT WILL STALL FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE FINALLY SURGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THIS REGION AS
WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER AIR WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAYS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY WENT ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A QUICK WARMUP SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  80  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   83  59  78  61 /  20  20  40  20
MLC   81  62  77  64 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   82  55  81  61 /  10  10  20  30
FYV   78  54  75  60 /  20  10  40  20
BYV   76  55  74  59 /  20  10  30  20
MKO   81  59  78  62 /  10  20  40  20
MIO   78  56  78  61 /  10  10  30  20
F10   81  60  79  63 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   79  61  77  62 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE KMLC/KFSM HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 60 AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CAP. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT THE CAP
SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-40 LATER TONIGHT AS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
HAVE BEEN TO RAISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   61  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   49  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   56  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   59  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   62  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
15Z. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING
WITH THE KMLC/KFSM HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 60 AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CAP. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT THE CAP
SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-40 LATER TONIGHT AS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
HAVE BEEN TO RAISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   61  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   49  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   56  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   59  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   62  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310236
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 60 AS FAR NORTH AS I-40 HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CAP. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTH
AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT THE CAP
SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-40 LATER TONIGHT AS FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST
HAVE BEEN TO RAISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99









000
FXUS64 KTSA 302327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS TX WILL EXPAND NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 302050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 302050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF
COAST OF BAJA WILL REMAIN TIED  AS MAJOR TROUGH EASTERN
PACIFIC KICKS BOTH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TIER U.S.
COUPLED WITH THE  WEST TO EAST  FRONT NOW IN TEXAS WILL
PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN OK..AND NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THUNDER/SHOWERS MOST LIKELY DURING
THAT PERIOD SOUTH OF I40.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SATURDAY & SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL END WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT  WITH A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  80  59  80 /  10  20  20  40
FSM   56  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   58  76  62  77 /  20  40  40  40
BVO   48  80  53  80 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   49  76  52  74 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   52  74  53  73 /  10  20  10  30
MKO   55  76  58  77 /  10  20  30  40
MIO   51  77  53  77 /   0  10  10  30
F10   56  77  59  79 /  10  30  40  30
HHW   58  76  59  76 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301740
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 06Z. AFTER THAT
TIME...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KMLC BEFORE
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301740
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 06Z. AFTER THAT
TIME...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KMLC BEFORE
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301740
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 06Z. AFTER THAT
TIME...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TUESDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES EXCEPT PERHAPS KMLC BEFORE
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301630
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301630
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301630
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301630
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT RAISING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....21

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 21 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM S TO N AS YESTERDAYS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THESE CIGS
MAY NOT REACH BVO PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 21 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM S TO N AS YESTERDAYS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THESE CIGS
MAY NOT REACH BVO PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 21 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM S TO N AS YESTERDAYS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THESE CIGS
MAY NOT REACH BVO PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301039
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 21 HOURS OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM S TO N AS YESTERDAYS FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. THESE CIGS
MAY NOT REACH BVO PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL LEAVE RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR
NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300820
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  55  80  59 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   74  55  79  58 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   75  60  78  59 /   0  10  40  30
BVO   73  50  80  54 /   0   0  20  10
FYV   70  52  75  53 /   0   0  30  20
BYV   69  52  75  54 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   73  56  78  57 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   71  50  75  55 /   0   0  20  10
F10   74  59  79  58 /   0   0  30  30
HHW   75  60  75  59 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300820
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  55  80  59 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   74  55  79  58 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   75  60  78  59 /   0  10  40  30
BVO   73  50  80  54 /   0   0  20  10
FYV   70  52  75  53 /   0   0  30  20
BYV   69  52  75  54 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   73  56  78  57 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   71  50  75  55 /   0   0  20  10
F10   74  59  79  58 /   0   0  30  30
HHW   75  60  75  59 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300820
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  55  80  59 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   74  55  79  58 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   75  60  78  59 /   0  10  40  30
BVO   73  50  80  54 /   0   0  20  10
FYV   70  52  75  53 /   0   0  30  20
BYV   69  52  75  54 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   73  56  78  57 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   71  50  75  55 /   0   0  20  10
F10   74  59  79  58 /   0   0  30  30
HHW   75  60  75  59 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300820
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY
ALLOWING PLEASANT EARLY SPRING CONDITIONS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WORKING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA IS GLANCED BY A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER
MID WEST...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST
OF THE AREA NEARER THE DRYLINE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
OFFER A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER NO PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ONCE THE WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES ON WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A
FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS BOUNDARY THEN
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY STALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS POINT WITH A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  55  80  59 /   0   0  20  20
FSM   74  55  79  58 /   0  10  30  20
MLC   75  60  78  59 /   0  10  40  30
BVO   73  50  80  54 /   0   0  20  10
FYV   70  52  75  53 /   0   0  30  20
BYV   69  52  75  54 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   73  56  78  57 /   0  10  30  20
MIO   71  50  75  55 /   0   0  20  10
F10   74  59  79  58 /   0   0  30  30
HHW   75  60  75  59 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS LIKELY AFTER 00Z WITH LOW END VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT
MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 300450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY CONVECTION
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. INCREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS LIKELY AFTER 00Z WITH LOW END VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT
MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300240
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR ACROSS SERN OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM.
LOCAL MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK AS MOISTURE INCREASED INTO THAT REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SOME EXTENT. 00Z AREA RAOBS
REFLECTED QUITE A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THAT REGION AND SINCE WE ARE ONLY
CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS...GOING TO CONTINUE THEM AS IS FOR NOW.
IF CONVECTION DOES OCCUR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 292312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14











000
FXUS64 KTSA 292312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 292312
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID CLOUDS
DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14











000
FXUS64 KTSA 292101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   47  74  53  76 /  20   0  10  20
MLC   49  74  56  77 /  20   0  10  30
BVO   36  74  45  79 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   37  71  48  75 /  10   0  10  20
BYV   39  70  51  74 /  10   0  10  20
MKO   45  73  53  77 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   39  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  10
F10   47  73  55  78 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   54  73  57  74 /  40   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 292101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COOL FRONT..ROUGHLY SOUTH CENTRAL OK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MO WORKING SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH OF I40 MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST.  DRY / PLEASANT MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS THROUGH.

H5 WAVE  CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
AND REMAIN UNDER H5 RIDGE  TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE PRECIP/THUNDER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POTENT THUNDER..TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING & AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.

WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THURSDAY / FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION RESULTS
IN CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

DRY AIR FINALLY ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY WHEN A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH PLAINS.
GW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  75  53  80 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   47  74  53  76 /  20   0  10  20
MLC   49  74  56  77 /  20   0  10  30
BVO   36  74  45  79 /   0   0   0  20
FYV   37  71  48  75 /  10   0  10  20
BYV   39  70  51  74 /  10   0  10  20
MKO   45  73  53  77 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   39  72  50  76 /   0   0  10  10
F10   47  73  55  78 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   54  73  57  74 /  40   0  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY...BUT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY...BUT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY...BUT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY...BUT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT
IS EXPECTED...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT. /SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...02






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291559
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING A FEW MINOR UPDATES. GENERALLY LEFT FORECAST AS IS...BUT
HAVE CONCERNS THAT ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
REACH THE FOREAST AFTERNOON HIGHS. ONE BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOWS UP ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK. THAT BREAK MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO REACH THE FORECAST HIGHS. WILL MONITOR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   74  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   77  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   69  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   66  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY THE NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE...WITH ANY FRONTAL TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
553 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY THE NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE...WITH ANY FRONTAL TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF MLC/FSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   75  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   76  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   71  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   67  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   73  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   75  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   76  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   71  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   67  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   73  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   75  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   76  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   71  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   67  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   73  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.

TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   75  47  73  54 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   76  49  73  58 /   0  10   0  20
BVO   71  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   67  40  69  50 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   67  41  68  49 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   72  44  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   66  39  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
F10   73  46  72  55 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   78  55  71  59 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW PROJECTED LOWS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290156
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW PROJECTED LOWS.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 290156
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW PROJECTED LOWS.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290156
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW PROJECTED LOWS.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290156
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW PROJECTED LOWS.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12








000
FXUS64 KTSA 282316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT H5 UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WIND TO HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT.

LOW CHANCE POPS  FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY
WITH STALLED FRONT SOUTH.  BETTER CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  WHEN UNDERCUTTING
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO  TEXAS  AND LIFTS
MOISTURE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD CHANCE OF STOUT
THUNDERSTORMS  TUESDAY WHEN NORTH TEXAS SURFACE WAVE
BACKS LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 282316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT H5 UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WIND TO HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT.

LOW CHANCE POPS  FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY
WITH STALLED FRONT SOUTH.  BETTER CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  WHEN UNDERCUTTING
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO  TEXAS  AND LIFTS
MOISTURE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD CHANCE OF STOUT
THUNDERSTORMS  TUESDAY WHEN NORTH TEXAS SURFACE WAVE
BACKS LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 282102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT H5 UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WIND TO HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT.

LOW CHANCE POPS  FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY
WITH STALLED FRONT SOUTH.  BETTER CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  WHEN UNDERCUTTING
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO  TEXAS  AND LIFTS
MOISTURE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD CHANCE OF STOUT
THUNDERSTORMS  TUESDAY WHEN NORTH TEXAS SURFACE WAVE
BACKS LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  75  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  76  48  73 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   53  78  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   47  74  36  73 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   43  71  37  70 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   41  70  42  69 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   48  75  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   46  69  41  72 /   0  20   0   0
F10   52  77  47  72 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   50  80  55  70 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT H5 UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WIND TO HOLD TEMPS UP TONIGHT.

LOW CHANCE POPS  FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY
WITH STALLED FRONT SOUTH.  BETTER CHANCE POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  WHEN UNDERCUTTING
WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO  TEXAS  AND LIFTS
MOISTURE OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD CHANCE OF STOUT
THUNDERSTORMS  TUESDAY WHEN NORTH TEXAS SURFACE WAVE
BACKS LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  75  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  76  48  73 /   0  10  10   0
MLC   53  78  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   47  74  36  73 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   43  71  37  70 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   41  70  42  69 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   48  75  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIO   46  69  41  72 /   0  20   0   0
F10   52  77  47  72 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   50  80  55  70 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT FIZZLED OUT
WITH SUNNY TO CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  71  46  71 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   44  73  50  72 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   51  76  53  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   42  72  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  67  42  69 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   37  67  43  67 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   45  71  48  71 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   44  67  41  69 /   0  10   0   0
F10   50  73  49  72 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   49  77  57  71 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT FIZZLED OUT
WITH SUNNY TO CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  71  46  71 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   44  73  50  72 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   51  76  53  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   42  72  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  67  42  69 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   37  67  43  67 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   45  71  48  71 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   44  67  41  69 /   0  10   0   0
F10   50  73  49  72 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   49  77  57  71 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT FIZZLED OUT
WITH SUNNY TO CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  71  46  71 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   44  73  50  72 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   51  76  53  72 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   42  72  39  70 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   39  67  42  69 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   37  67  43  67 /  10  10  10   0
MKO   45  71  48  71 /   0  10  10   0
MIO   44  67  41  69 /   0  10   0   0
F10   50  73  49  72 /   0  10  10   0
HHW   49  77  57  71 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281554
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT FIZZLED OUT
WITH SUNNY TO CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  49  71  46 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   65  44  73  50 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   71  51  76  53 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   69  42  72  39 /  10   0  10   0
FYV   60  39  67  42 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   54  37  67  43 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   68  45  71  48 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   64  44  67  41 /  10   0  10   0
F10   70  50  73  49 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   73  49  77  57 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281554
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT FIZZLED OUT
WITH SUNNY TO CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  49  71  46 /  10   0  10   0
FSM   65  44  73  50 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   71  51  76  53 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   69  42  72  39 /  10   0  10   0
FYV   60  39  67  42 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   54  37  67  43 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   68  45  71  48 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   64  44  67  41 /  10   0  10   0
F10   70  50  73  49 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   73  49  77  57 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






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