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000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 040334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z NAM TRENDING TOWARDS THE 18Z GFS WITH HEAVIEST QPF FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND
SNOW APPEAR LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER NORTHWEST OF TULSA WHICH
ALSO AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE GOING FORECAST OR TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 032056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   42  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   38  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   25  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   31  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   30  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   34  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   26  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   33  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   48  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 032056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   42  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   38  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   25  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   31  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   30  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   34  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   26  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   33  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   48  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES BEGINNING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FSM AND MLC WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031655
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
THE AFOREMENTIONED IFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR AS FZRAPL CHANCES INCREASE. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...GUSTY
SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE
OK AND NW AR SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 031008
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS AND RESULTANT WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED WHICH HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY DENSE AT TIMES...BUT COVERAGE
ISN`T WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY MILD AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

BIG WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FORECAST AREA COMES UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN 180+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...BUT EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SLEET AND SNOW FOR NE OK AND NW AR
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATER
FOR SE OK AND WCNTRL AR...WITH THE WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING AS SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AR STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT SNOW...WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK INTO WCNTRL
AR...WITH AMOUNTS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.

HOW TO HANDLE THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IS A RIDICULOUSLY TOUGH
CALL. MOST OF ERN OK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BEING THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LATE 2ND
PERIOD (TUE NIGHT) INTO THE 3RD PERIOD (WED). CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST HAS PARTS OF NW AR...MAINLY CARROLL AND MADISON
COUNTIES...REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4+ INCHES) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE JUST STILL ISN`T THERE FOR AN UPGRADE
TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO KEEP THE WATCH AS IS.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z DATA WILL CLEAR THINGS UP A BIT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH VERY
CHILLY LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. BUT A STRONG WARM UP IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  25  26  16 /  20  60  70  20
FSM   56  35  37  19 /  50  80  90  30
MLC   58  33  33  18 /  50  80  90  20
BVO   54  24  26  13 /  20  50  70  10
FYV   52  30  30  14 /  50  80  80  30
BYV   53  28  28  13 /  50  80  80  30
MKO   55  29  29  17 /  30  80  80  20
MIO   52  22  24  12 /  30  60  70  20
F10   56  28  28  18 /  30  70  70  20
HHW   61  40  40  21 /  50  80  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&


.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 030342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED
MEASURABLE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A
COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE ONCE THE NEW EVENING DATA IS FULLY
AVAILABLE.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 022339
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. WENT WITH TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  55  25  30 /  30  30  70  60
FSM   39  55  38  38 /  30  70  70  80
MLC   39  58  30  33 /  30  40  70  80
BVO   36  52  24  31 /  20  30  50  50
FYV   36  53  26  30 /  30  70  70  80
BYV   35  52  24  28 /  30  60  70  80
MKO   35  57  27  31 /  30  40  70  70
MIO   36  51  21  30 /  30  40  60  60
F10   37  58  26  31 /  30  30  70  70
HHW   40  61  41  42 /  30  60  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  55  25  30 /  30  30  70  60
FSM   39  55  38  38 /  30  70  70  80
MLC   39  58  30  33 /  30  40  70  80
BVO   36  52  24  31 /  20  30  50  50
FYV   36  53  26  30 /  30  70  70  80
BYV   35  52  24  28 /  30  60  70  80
MKO   35  57  27  31 /  30  40  70  70
MIO   36  51  21  30 /  30  40  60  60
F10   37  58  26  31 /  30  30  70  70
HHW   40  61  41  42 /  30  60  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 022042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  55  25  30 /  30  30  70  60
FSM   39  55  38  38 /  30  70  70  80
MLC   39  58  30  33 /  30  40  70  80
BVO   36  52  24  31 /  20  30  50  50
FYV   36  53  26  30 /  30  70  70  80
BYV   35  52  24  28 /  30  60  70  80
MKO   35  57  27  31 /  30  40  70  70
MIO   36  51  21  30 /  30  40  60  60
F10   37  58  26  31 /  30  30  70  70
HHW   40  61  41  42 /  30  60  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022042
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD AND ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER/BRISK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 190 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX...THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
HEAVIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS SNOW/ICE
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND SYSTEM
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  55  25  30 /  30  30  70  60
FSM   39  55  38  38 /  30  70  70  80
MLC   39  58  30  33 /  30  40  70  80
BVO   36  52  24  31 /  20  30  50  50
FYV   36  53  26  30 /  30  70  70  80
BYV   35  52  24  28 /  30  60  70  80
MKO   35  57  27  31 /  30  40  70  70
MIO   36  51  21  30 /  30  40  60  60
F10   37  58  26  31 /  30  30  70  70
HHW   40  61  41  42 /  30  60  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 021741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND OVERTAKE THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND VCSH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  36  59  25 /  20  10  30  80
FSM   42  39  55  38 /  20  20  70  90
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  20  40  90
BVO   39  36  54  24 /  20  10  30  50
FYV   40  36  55  24 /  20  30  70  90
BYV   39  35  54  22 /  20  20  60  90
MKO   41  35  59  27 /  20  20  40  90
MIO   39  36  53  21 /  20  10  40  60
F10   40  37  60  26 /  20  20  30  90
HHW   43  40  63  41 /  30  30  60  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND OVERTAKE THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND VCSH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  36  59  25 /  20  10  30  80
FSM   42  39  55  38 /  20  20  70  90
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  20  40  90
BVO   39  36  54  24 /  20  10  30  50
FYV   40  36  55  24 /  20  30  70  90
BYV   39  35  54  22 /  20  20  60  90
MKO   41  35  59  27 /  20  20  40  90
MIO   39  36  53  21 /  20  10  40  60
F10   40  37  60  26 /  20  20  30  90
HHW   43  40  63  41 /  30  30  60  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021741
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND OVERTAKE THE MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND VCSH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  36  59  25 /  20  10  30  80
FSM   42  39  55  38 /  20  20  70  90
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  20  40  90
BVO   39  36  54  24 /  20  10  30  50
FYV   40  36  55  24 /  20  30  70  90
BYV   39  35  54  22 /  20  20  60  90
MKO   41  35  59  27 /  20  20  40  90
MIO   39  36  53  21 /  20  10  40  60
F10   40  37  60  26 /  20  20  30  90
HHW   43  40  63  41 /  30  30  60  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 021614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEARLY
STATIONARY WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUED TO SPREAD
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF CWA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THOUGH...IF THE LATEST IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF
MODEL VERIFIES THIS AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS AND
FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
AND THE WAVE OUT WEST ALL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION.

CLOUDY SKIES AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL AID IN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING UPDATE WILL TO BE TWEAK
HOURLY POP/WX/TEMP/WIND AFTERNOON GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
THE MENTIONED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  20  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  20  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE ONGOING OR GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR KMLC AND THE NW ARKANSAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE ONGOING OR GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR KMLC AND THE NW ARKANSAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 021139
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE ONGOING OR GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR KMLC AND THE NW ARKANSAS TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 021000
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021000
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NE TX WILL DRIFT INTO SE OK THIS MORNING...SO
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
PATCHY FOG MENTION AS LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOCKED IN AREA WIDE. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
REMAIN LOW TODAY AS SYSTEM OFF THE CA SLOWS THE PATTERN FLOW SOME.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CONUS TOMORROW...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL AID PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY...RAIN...ALONG WITH MODEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE ON ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING
AS SOME MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING AMOUNTS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  39  57  25 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   42  39  60  31 /  30  30  70  60
MLC   41  39  60  30 /  30  30  60  60
BVO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  50  40
FYV   40  36  58  25 /  20  30  70  50
BYV   39  36  57  23 /  20  30  70  50
MKO   41  36  58  25 /  20  30  60  50
MIO   39  37  54  22 /  20  30  60  40
F10   40  37  59  26 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   43  40  62  35 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
BACK INTO THIS AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT AS CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND CONFINED THEM TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A LIMITED PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
BACK INTO THIS AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT AS CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND CONFINED THEM TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A LIMITED PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020242
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT AS CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND CONFINED THEM TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A LIMITED PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020242
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FOR TONIGHT AS CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. ALSO MADE SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND CONFINED THEM TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A LIMITED PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SPREAD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10








000
FXUS64 KTSA 012342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY WORKING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO
CONDITIONS AT KBVO...KTUL AND KRVS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
BACK IN TOWARDS MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 012342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY WORKING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO
CONDITIONS AT KBVO...KTUL AND KRVS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
BACK IN TOWARDS MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 012342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DRIER AIR IS TEMPORARILY WORKING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO
CONDITIONS AT KBVO...KTUL AND KRVS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR FOR A
TIME LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
BACK IN TOWARDS MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 012107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  40  38  56 /  10  10  40  50
FSM   32  42  37  57 /  10  20  40  70
MLC   26  43  40  61 /  10  20  40  60
BVO   20  40  37  54 /  10  10  40  50
FYV   24  42  38  57 /  10  10  40  70
BYV   23  39  37  56 /  10  10  40  70
MKO   23  41  37  57 /  10  10  40  60
MIO   22  40  37  53 /  10  10  40  60
F10   23  40  38  59 /  10  10  40  50
HHW   34  45  40  61 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 012107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  40  38  56 /  10  10  40  50
FSM   32  42  37  57 /  10  20  40  70
MLC   26  43  40  61 /  10  20  40  60
BVO   20  40  37  54 /  10  10  40  50
FYV   24  42  38  57 /  10  10  40  70
BYV   23  39  37  56 /  10  10  40  70
MKO   23  41  37  57 /  10  10  40  60
MIO   22  40  37  53 /  10  10  40  60
F10   23  40  38  59 /  10  10  40  50
HHW   34  45  40  61 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA WAS SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA CONTINUED TO PUSH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM WITH THE
FREEZING LINE GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR I-40.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH TO SOUTH. FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD BE THE LAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WILL HOLD ONTO A MIX OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGE...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS/HAS LIFTING
OUT/EXITED THE CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS. THUS...WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 11 AM...WITH THE NOTE THAT SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE TEMPS WARM. NO ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED ABOVE...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   38  32  43  37 /  40  20  30  50
MLC   37  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   34  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   36  24  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
BYV   36  23  39  34 /  20  10  20  50
MKO   36  26  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   35  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   36  27  42  37 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   41  36  44  41 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA WAS SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA CONTINUED TO PUSH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM WITH THE
FREEZING LINE GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR I-40.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH TO SOUTH. FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD BE THE LAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WILL HOLD ONTO A MIX OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGE...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS/HAS LIFTING
OUT/EXITED THE CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS. THUS...WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 11 AM...WITH THE NOTE THAT SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE TEMPS WARM. NO ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED ABOVE...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   38  32  43  37 /  40  20  30  50
MLC   37  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   34  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   36  24  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
BYV   36  23  39  34 /  20  10  20  50
MKO   36  26  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   35  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   36  27  42  37 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   41  36  44  41 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011133
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE PERSISTS.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS
BECOMING MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING THE MAIN PRECIP
TYPE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. THE WSW WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH 17Z...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY AS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
PUSH OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR...THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING
PRECIP CHANCES. WARM UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
RAIN...AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AT THAT TIME. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AN INITIAL...BUT LIMITED WINDOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK NW AR. SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   39  32  43  37 /  50  20  30  50
MLC   39  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   35  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   39  24  40  36 /  30  10  20  50
BYV   39  23  39  34 /  30  10  20  50
MKO   37  26  41  37 /  30  10  30  60
MIO   36  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   37  27  42  37 /  30  10  30  60
HHW   42  36  44  41 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING THE MAIN PRECIP
TYPE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. THE WSW WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH 17Z...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY AS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
PUSH OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR...THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING
PRECIP CHANCES. WARM UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
RAIN...AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AT THAT TIME. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AN INITIAL...BUT LIMITED WINDOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK NW AR. SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   39  32  43  37 /  50  20  30  50
MLC   39  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   35  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   39  24  40  36 /  30  10  20  50
BYV   39  23  39  34 /  30  10  20  50
MKO   37  26  41  37 /  30  10  30  60
MIO   36  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   37  27  42  37 /  30  10  30  60
HHW   42  36  44  41 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010945
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AREAL COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMING THE MAIN PRECIP
TYPE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. THE WSW WILL NOW BE EXTENDED THROUGH 17Z...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE CHOCTAW COUNTY AS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WARMING WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...WITH
ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
PUSH OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH PRECIP CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR...THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FREEZING
PRECIP CHANCES. WARM UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
RAIN...AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AT THAT TIME. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AN INITIAL...BUT LIMITED WINDOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NE OK NW AR. SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   39  32  43  37 /  50  20  30  50
MLC   39  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   35  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   39  24  40  36 /  30  10  20  50
BYV   39  23  39  34 /  30  10  20  50
MKO   37  26  41  37 /  30  10  30  60
MIO   36  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   37  27  42  37 /  30  10  30  60
HHW   42  36  44  41 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ALL SITES BECOMING MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ALL SITES BECOMING MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010539
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ALL SITES BECOMING MVFR BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS HOUR. FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 60 MPH CONTINUES TO CREATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING PRODUCING THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ICE
AMOUNTS SOME ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. STILL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE HRRR SHOWS THE PRECIP TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM.
WILL SEE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







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