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000
FXUS64 KTSA 022305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KBVO. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST HOUR WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORM COMPLEX SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AERIAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT DUE TO OVERALL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR KANSAS BORDER WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST
NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED THE AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREA LIKELY TO BE
VERY WARM AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY FORCE A
STRONGER FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 022305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT... POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KBVO. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST HOUR WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORM COMPLEX SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AERIAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT DUE TO OVERALL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR KANSAS BORDER WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST
NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED THE AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREA LIKELY TO BE
VERY WARM AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY FORCE A
STRONGER FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 022034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST HOUR WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORM COMPLEX SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AERIAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT DUE TO OVERALL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR KANSAS BORDER WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST
NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED THE AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREA LIKELY TO BE
VERY WARM AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY FORCE A
STRONGER FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  78  96 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   74  93  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   75  94  76  94 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   72  93  75  94 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   71  88  73  91 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   71  89  73  92 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   73  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   72  91  75  94 /  30  10  10  10
F10   74  93  77  94 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   74  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14











000
FXUS64 KTSA 022034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF LINGERING CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE
PAST HOUR WITH MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
STORM COMPLEX SHOWS UP NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE ACROSS CENTRAL OK
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. AERIAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS
WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT DUE TO OVERALL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE NEAR KANSAS BORDER WHERE 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST
NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED THE AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO OFFSET A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREA LIKELY TO BE
VERY WARM AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AND COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NORTHERN U.S. AND POTENTIALLY FORCE A
STRONGER FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  94  78  96 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   74  93  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   75  94  76  94 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   72  93  75  94 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   71  88  73  91 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   71  89  73  92 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   73  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   72  91  75  94 /  30  10  10  10
F10   74  93  77  94 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   74  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 021734
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT RAIN OVER FYV/FSM WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST. DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY TOWARD FSM
AREA AS RE-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON WESTERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF
MORNING STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE ESE. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS. UPDATED POP FORECAST
REFLECTS CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OK AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LEFT AS THEY WERE FOR THE TIME BEING...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDING SOME CHANCE ALONG RED RIVER AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 021734
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT RAIN OVER FYV/FSM WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST. DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY TOWARD FSM
AREA AS RE-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON WESTERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF
MORNING STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE ESE. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS. UPDATED POP FORECAST
REFLECTS CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OK AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LEFT AS THEY WERE FOR THE TIME BEING...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDING SOME CHANCE ALONG RED RIVER AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 021543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY TOWARD FSM
AREA AS RE-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON WESTERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF
MORNING STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE ESE. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS. UPDATED POP FORECAST
REFLECTS CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OK AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LEFT AS THEY WERE FOR THE TIME BEING...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDING SOME CHANCE ALONG RED RIVER AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  74  94  76 /  60  30  10   0
FSM   80  73  94  74 / 100  20  10   0
MLC   84  74  93  75 / 100   0  10   0
BVO   88  67  94  71 /  30  50  10   0
FYV   79  68  90  70 /  80  20  10   0
BYV   78  68  90  70 /  70  20  10   0
MKO   83  71  93  73 /  90  20  10   0
MIO   87  70  92  73 /  30  40  10   0
F10   84  72  93  74 / 100  10  10   0
HHW   93  73  94  73 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 021543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY TOWARD FSM
AREA AS RE-DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON WESTERN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF
MORNING STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE ESE. NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS. UPDATED POP FORECAST
REFLECTS CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS
ALSO LOWERED CONSIDERABLY OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OK AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN
LEFT AS THEY WERE FOR THE TIME BEING...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDING SOME CHANCE ALONG RED RIVER AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  74  94  76 /  60  30  10   0
FSM   80  73  94  74 / 100  20  10   0
MLC   84  74  93  75 / 100   0  10   0
BVO   88  67  94  71 /  30  50  10   0
FYV   79  68  90  70 /  80  20  10   0
BYV   78  68  90  70 /  70  20  10   0
MKO   83  71  93  73 /  90  20  10   0
MIO   87  70  92  73 /  30  40  10   0
F10   84  72  93  74 / 100  10  10   0
HHW   93  73  94  73 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 021140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY IN THIS
ACTIVITY. REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. UNCERTAIN WHERE BOUNDARIES WILL END UP FROM THIS
MORNING`S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BUT WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
LESS ORGANIZED THAN ONGOING ACTIVITY...DISSIPATING BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS FOCUSED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS OF YET THE CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE REGION AND VARIOUS
SHORT TERM DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES
NEAREST THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES HOWEVER MUCH LESS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PLACE SUGGESTING MUCH LOWER PRECIP
COVERAGE. THEREAFTER TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER...AND
FURTHER INCREASES ARE LIKELY ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  76 /  70  30  10   0
FSM   90  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
MLC   92  74  93  75 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   89  67  94  71 /  80  50  10   0
FYV   85  68  90  70 /  60  20  10   0
BYV   85  68  90  70 /  90  20  10   0
MKO   89  71  93  73 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   86  70  92  73 /  80  40  10   0
F10   91  72  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   94  73  94  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69





000
FXUS64 KTSA 021140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSRA THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY IN THIS
ACTIVITY. REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. UNCERTAIN WHERE BOUNDARIES WILL END UP FROM THIS
MORNING`S THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BUT WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
LESS ORGANIZED THAN ONGOING ACTIVITY...DISSIPATING BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS FOCUSED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS OF YET THE CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE REGION AND VARIOUS
SHORT TERM DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES
NEAREST THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES HOWEVER MUCH LESS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PLACE SUGGESTING MUCH LOWER PRECIP
COVERAGE. THEREAFTER TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER...AND
FURTHER INCREASES ARE LIKELY ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  76 /  70  30  10   0
FSM   90  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
MLC   92  74  93  75 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   89  67  94  71 /  80  50  10   0
FYV   85  68  90  70 /  60  20  10   0
BYV   85  68  90  70 /  90  20  10   0
MKO   89  71  93  73 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   86  70  92  73 /  80  40  10   0
F10   91  72  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   94  73  94  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...69






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020857
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS FOCUSED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS OF YET THE CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE REGION AND VARIOUS
SHORT TERM DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES
NEAREST THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES HOWEVER MUCH LESS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PLACE SUGGESTING MUCH LOWER PRECIP
COVERAGE. THEREAFTER TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER...AND
FURTHER INCREASES ARE LIKELY ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  76 /  70  30  10   0
FSM   90  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
MLC   92  74  93  75 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   89  67  94  71 /  80  50  10   0
FYV   85  68  90  70 /  60  20  10   0
BYV   85  68  90  70 /  90  20  10   0
MKO   89  71  93  73 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   86  70  92  73 /  80  40  10   0
F10   91  72  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   94  73  94  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020857
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS FOCUSED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS OF YET THE CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE REGION AND VARIOUS
SHORT TERM DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
CONVECTION. ALSO THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES
NEAREST THE ONGOING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES HOWEVER MUCH LESS
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE PLACE SUGGESTING MUCH LOWER PRECIP
COVERAGE. THEREAFTER TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FORECAST WILL TREND PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER...AND
FURTHER INCREASES ARE LIKELY ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
AFTER A COOLER WEEKEND...WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  74  94  76 /  70  30  10   0
FSM   90  73  94  74 /  30  20  10   0
MLC   92  74  93  75 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   89  67  94  71 /  80  50  10   0
FYV   85  68  90  70 /  60  20  10   0
BYV   85  68  90  70 /  90  20  10   0
MKO   89  71  93  73 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   86  70  92  73 /  80  40  10   0
F10   91  72  93  74 /  40  10  10   0
HHW   94  73  94  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN
ACROSS NE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NW AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL/NCNTRL OK
COULD MAKE A RUN AT PARTS OF ERN OK OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020446
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN
ACROSS NE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NW AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL/NCNTRL OK
COULD MAKE A RUN AT PARTS OF ERN OK OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 020251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN
ACROSS NE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NW AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDTIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL/NCNTRL OK
COULD MAKE A RUN AT PARTS OF ERN OK OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  75  96 /  70  40  20  10
FSM   75  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  10
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  10
BVO   69  90  69  96 /  80  40  30  10
FYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
BYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
MKO   73  90  72  93 /  50  40  20  10
MIO   71  88  72  94 /  80  40  40  10
F10   74  92  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   75  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 020251
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
951 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS BECOME COLD POOL DRIVEN
ACROSS NE OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO NW AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ADDTIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER CNTRL/NCNTRL OK
COULD MAKE A RUN AT PARTS OF ERN OK OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  75  96 /  70  40  20  10
FSM   75  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  10
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  10
BVO   69  90  69  96 /  80  40  30  10
FYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
BYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
MKO   73  90  72  93 /  50  40  20  10
MIO   71  88  72  94 /  80  40  40  10
F10   74  92  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   75  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 012318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKASNAS SITES THIS
EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. A PAIR OF
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA EXIST...ONE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS WY ATTM.
NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR LIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
DECENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...A MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN EXISTS DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THAT CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RETREATING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS
APPROACHING THE KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW KS. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL DAY IN DVLPNG STORMS BTWN 22-00Z IN THE
ZONE BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AVAILABLE
CAPE. LOW LEVEL BACKED WINDS IN BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES
SUGGESTS...IF A SUPERCELL CAN GET GOING...THAT A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO
RISK EXISTS BEFORE CELLS GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND THEN
MOVE E/SE THIS EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN THREAT BECOMES DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR LATER TONIGHT
NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AS
YOU GO SOUTH WHERE RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT DOESN`T...GIVEN STRONG
CAP IN PLACE DUE TO EML.

I BACKED OFF SOME ON LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE OK AND NW AR GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY COOLED OUTFLOW...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT.

RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NE
OK/NW AR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT AGAIN TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK.

THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF TODAY ARE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS.

THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT COULD BE
ON THE WAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...A SIGN OF THE CHANGE IN SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 012029
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. A PAIR OF
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA EXIST...ONE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS WY ATTM.
NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR LIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
DECENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...A MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN EXISTS DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THAT CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RETREATING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS
APPROACHING THE KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW KS. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL DAY IN DVLPNG STORMS BTWN 22-00Z IN THE
ZONE BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AVAILABLE
CAPE. LOW LEVEL BACKED WINDS IN BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES
SUGGESTS...IF A SUPERCELL CAN GET GOING...THAT A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO
RISK EXISTS BEFORE CELLS GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND THEN
MOVE E/SE THIS EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN THREAT BECOMES DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR LATER TONIGHT
NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AS
YOU GO SOUTH WHERE RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT DOESN`T...GIVEN STRONG
CAP IN PLACE DUE TO EML.

I BACKED OFF SOME ON LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE OK AND NW AR GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY COOLED OUTFLOW...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT.

RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NE
OK/NW AR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT AGAIN TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK.

THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF TODAY ARE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS.

THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT COULD BE
ON THE WAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...A SIGN OF THE CHANGE IN SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  75  96 /  60  40  20  10
FSM   75  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  10
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  10
BVO   69  90  69  96 /  60  40  30  10
FYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
BYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
MKO   73  90  72  93 /  50  40  20  10
MIO   71  88  72  94 /  60  40  40  10
F10   74  92  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   75  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 012029
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. A PAIR OF
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA EXIST...ONE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS WY ATTM.
NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR LIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
DECENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...A MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN EXISTS DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THAT CONVECTION
HAS BEEN RETREATING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS
APPROACHING THE KANSAS BORDER. MEANWHILE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW KS. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ALL DAY IN DVLPNG STORMS BTWN 22-00Z IN THE
ZONE BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AVAILABLE
CAPE. LOW LEVEL BACKED WINDS IN BTWN THE TWO BOUNDARIES
SUGGESTS...IF A SUPERCELL CAN GET GOING...THAT A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO
RISK EXISTS BEFORE CELLS GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND THEN
MOVE E/SE THIS EVENING...WHEN THE MAIN THREAT BECOMES DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BY THE HRRR LATER TONIGHT
NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF AS
YOU GO SOUTH WHERE RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT DOESN`T...GIVEN STRONG
CAP IN PLACE DUE TO EML.

I BACKED OFF SOME ON LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE OK AND NW AR GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY COOLED OUTFLOW...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT.

RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NE
OK/NW AR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT AGAIN TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF TULSA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK.

THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF TODAY ARE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GFS MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF.
NEVERTHELESS...POPS WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS.

THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT COULD BE
ON THE WAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...A SIGN OF THE CHANGE IN SEASONS.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  75  96 /  60  40  20  10
FSM   75  91  73  94 /  30  40  20  10
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  10
BVO   69  90  69  96 /  60  40  30  10
FYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
BYV   71  86  69  91 /  60  50  30  20
MKO   73  90  72  93 /  50  40  20  10
MIO   71  88  72  94 /  60  40  40  10
F10   74  92  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   75  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE WITH THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND THIS EVENING..SO WILL MENTION
SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS. THE SE OK AND WC
TAF SITES WILL BE HANDLED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH PROB
GROUPS. OUTSIDE OF RA/TSRA AREAS...VF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION AS IS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO NRN ZONES BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011716
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE WITH THUNDER CHANCES MAINLY
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND THIS EVENING..SO WILL MENTION
SFC WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS. THE SE OK AND WC
TAF SITES WILL BE HANDLED LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH PROB
GROUPS. OUTSIDE OF RA/TSRA AREAS...VF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION AS IS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO NRN ZONES BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION AS IS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO NRN ZONES BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AND LEAVE PREVIOUS CONFIGURATION AS IS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO NRN ZONES BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 011129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE OK / NW AR SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS W/ A CONTINUAL DECAY THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING / EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH FLIGHT
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  30  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  40  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 011129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT NE OK / NW AR SITES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS W/ A CONTINUAL DECAY THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
AGAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND POSSIBLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING / EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH FLIGHT
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  30  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  20  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  50  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  40  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010810
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN
END ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  75  93  76 /  10  50  40  20
FSM   94  75  93  74 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   93  76  93  75 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   96  74  93  70 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   90  72  88  70 /  60  50  40  30
BYV   90  72  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
MKO   94  75  92  73 /  10  40  40  20
MIO   92  73  89  72 /  60  60  40  30
F10   93  76  92  74 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   94  75  94  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 010447
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECION ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBVO/KFYV AND KXNA
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 010200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST POINTS THIS EVENING ARE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THESE ITEMS ARE COVERED
WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST AND SO THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 312326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 312326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS MAY APPROACH THE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER
FOR KBVO. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 312046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING VORT MAX WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY PER WV
IMAGERY...LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WINDS WERE 100KTS
AT JET LEVEL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VORT MAX...SO THIS SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY ENERGETIC AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER VORT MAX WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OFF THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
KEEP SOUTH WINDS UP TONIGHT...COMBINE THAT WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN PLACE WILL YIELD A RATHER WARM NIGHT TONIGHT.

AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +12 TO +14C...THERE WILL
BE A STOUT CAP IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST FOR TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN OUR DIRECTION ON MONDAY...SLOWING AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
TILL LATE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z...BEFORE STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS WILL FIRE FIRST IN SW MO THEN DOWN INTO SE KS
AND N CNTRL OK WITH TIME. THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
WITH THE INITIAL AND DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STORMS LIKELY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND DROP SOUTH INTO NE OK AND NW AR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TREND THEM DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REINFORCED BY THEN...STALLS AND THEN STARTS TO RETREAT
NORTH. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY AND THUS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL END PRECIP CHANCES OVER
OUR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...SURPRISINGLY. A PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
STATES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...AND WILL HELP TO ERODE THE
RIDGE WHILE ALSO FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE DATA
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT. ODDS
ARE THAT THE WEEK WILL CLOSE OUT ON A COOLER AND WETTER
NOTE...HOPEFULLY. HIGHS/LOWS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES NEXT
WEEKEND BACK INTO THE 80S.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  75  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  93  76  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   76  95  71  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  89  73  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  91  71  85 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  93  75  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  92  72  88 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  93  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  94  75  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS
FROM KANSAS MAY SLIDE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OK
BORDER AFTER ABOUT 09Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VCTS INCLUDED
IN KBVO TAF WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  94  76  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  92  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   76  92  77  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   75  95  74  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  88  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  88  72  86 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  91  73  89 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  92  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  91  74  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS
FROM KANSAS MAY SLIDE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OK
BORDER AFTER ABOUT 09Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VCTS INCLUDED
IN KBVO TAF WITHIN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  94  76  93 /  10  10  50  40
FSM   73  92  75  92 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   76  92  77  93 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   75  95  74  92 /  10  30  50  40
FYV   71  88  71  86 /  10  20  40  50
BYV   71  88  72  86 /  10  20  50  50
MKO   73  92  74  92 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   74  91  73  89 /  10  30  50  50
F10   75  92  76  93 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   73  91  74  93 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 311549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   93  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   96  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   90  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   91  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 311549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS SENT.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   93  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   96  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   90  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   91  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 311127
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES. ANY LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF NE OK SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 310814
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
LABOR DAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE CONCERN.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   92  73  92  75 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  75  95  74 /  10  10  20  40
FYV   87  71  88  71 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   90  71  88  72 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  20
MIO   93  74  91  73 /  10  10  30  40
F10   94  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   92  73  91  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18








000
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR THE AR
TAF SITES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAS
WANED BUT A FEW CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
INCLUDED VERY LOW POPS ACROSS ERN HALF OF CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY A NONZERO CHANCE SO NOT MUCH POINT IN
TAKING OUT SUCH A SMALL POP THAT IS ALREADY THERE. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
TODAY. ALL IN ALL...NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  96  78  97 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   72  93  75  96 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   72  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   66  96  75  96 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   64  91  73  91 /  20   0  10  20
BYV   67  90  72  92 /  20   0  10  30
MKO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  20
MIO   70  93  75  94 /  10   0  10  30
F10   71  93  76  95 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   71  92  74  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18







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