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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 301046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT MORNING FOG AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS
(KBVO)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING...EXPECT SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK BY MIDDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE KBVO TAF AT THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 300911
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH TODAY... WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN TROUGH IN SOME AREAS BY
TONIGHT AND MORE SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SECOND WAVE OF
ENERGY NOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ROUNDS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OUT WEST
LATE TODAY AND WHILE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OK TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT CAPPING SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE TO CONFINE ANY RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NW OF TULSA. APPEARS
THE CAP MAY HOLD WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONFINED MORE TO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN IN SOME TIME. AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DEVELOP STRONG INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN AND SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS HIGHEST FOR
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR DURING THIS TIME.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AS MAIN SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF TASTE OF FALL WEATHER BEFORE TEMPS
MODERATE AND RETURN ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  20  50
FSM   87  65  88  71 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   88  68  89  72 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   86  66  86  68 /  10  30  30  60
FYV   85  63  84  68 /   0  10  10  30
BYV   84  63  85  68 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   87  66  88  70 /  10  10  10  50
MIO   85  66  86  69 /   0  20  30  60
F10   88  68  89  71 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   86  67  88  72 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 300428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
LOCALLY DENSE AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300428
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
LOCALLY DENSE AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION
AS A LINE OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO PUSHES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE
COMMON. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND
OF LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO/SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNING LOWS. THUS...EVENING UPDATE WILL TO TWEAK SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   62  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   58  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BRIEF EXCEPTION MAY BE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER DEWPOINT TRENDS
ARE NOTABLY DRIER THUS ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291959
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY OF NEXT TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FALL ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   61  87  65  88 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   62  85  67  88 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   58  87  63  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   56  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   57  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   61  85  65  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   60  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  40
F10   61  85  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   63  86  68  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06








000
FXUS64 KTSA 291534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14











000
FXUS64 KTSA 291056
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30










000
FXUS64 KTSA 290841 CCA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30









000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND GROW UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO MULTICELLS LOOK MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS
WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  64  87  68 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   86  62  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   86  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  50
FYV   83  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   86  61  85  66 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   84  61  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   85  64  86  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW/SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW/SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290213
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
TEMP / DEWPOINT 24 HOUR TRENDS ARE RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 2-4
DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS...MOST PLACES WILL SEE A CONTINUED TREND OF MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. UPDATE
WILL ADJUST FOR TRENDS AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT
TYPICALLY COLDER OBSERVATIONS SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 282332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SOME PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282025
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 282025
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS GOING TO FEEL A LOT
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
INCH UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THIS WEEKENDS VALUES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY TO
BE IN AT LEAST THE MID 60S ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AND ALONG IT...ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...VERY NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH BOTH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/WIND. GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND A FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND ANOTHER MULTI DAY RAIN FREE PERIOD WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO
CLOSE THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   61  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   61  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY AROUND 3-5SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   63  87  62  86 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  59  86 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   58  82  57  81 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  86  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
F10   61  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   62  85  63  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES MAINLY AROUND 3-5SM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  87  64  86 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   63  87  62  86 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   56  86  59  86 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   58  82  57  81 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  86  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  83  61  84 /   0   0  10  10
F10   61  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   62  85  63  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 281607
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  62  87  64 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   86  63  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  56  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   82  55  83  55 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  57 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   85  61  86  61 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   83  60  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
F10   85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MUCH LIKE PAST FEW DAYS...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY
IMPACTING A FEW LOCATIONS...NAMELY BVO/RVS/FYV/XNA. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY 14Z...WITH MID CLOUD DECK EXPANDING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
VIS MAY RETURN IN SAME AREAS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO LA LATER
TODAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER IN WRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 10% CHANCE HOWEVER. RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...FORCING A BOUNDARY DOWN
TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPSTREAM KICKER LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ATTM WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS THE LEAD SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE
WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 281048
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MUCH LIKE PAST FEW DAYS...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITY
IMPACTING A FEW LOCATIONS...NAMELY BVO/RVS/FYV/XNA. ALL AREAS WILL
BE VFR BY 14Z...WITH MID CLOUD DECK EXPANDING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
VIS MAY RETURN IN SAME AREAS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO LA LATER
TODAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER IN WRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 10% CHANCE HOWEVER. RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...FORCING A BOUNDARY DOWN
TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPSTREAM KICKER LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ATTM WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS THE LEAD SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE
WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 280827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO LA LATER
TODAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER IN WRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 10% CHANCE HOWEVER. RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...FORCING A BOUNDARY DOWN
TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPSTREAM KICKER LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ATTM WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS THE LEAD SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE
WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  62  87  64 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   86  63  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  56  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   82  55  83  55 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  57 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   85  61  86  61 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   83  60  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
F10   85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280827
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO LA LATER
TODAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER IN WRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 10% CHANCE HOWEVER. RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER
THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...FORCING A BOUNDARY DOWN
TO NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPSTREAM KICKER LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ATTM WILL
DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AS THE LEAD SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE
WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY
EVENING...LEAVING FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  62  87  64 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   86  63  87  62 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  56  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   82  55  83  55 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   82  58  82  57 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   85  61  86  61 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   83  60  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
F10   85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS STILL LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION FOR
BVO/RVS/XNA/FYV. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN BY MID MORNING
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND A SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE PLUS 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN OK /
WESTERN AR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT MORE MILD COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY PERSISTENT AND IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL
INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0  10   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF MVFR VIS/CIGS STILL LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION FOR
BVO/RVS/XNA/FYV. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AGAIN BY MID MORNING
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND A SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE PLUS 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN OK /
WESTERN AR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT MORE MILD COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY PERSISTENT AND IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL
INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0  10   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE PLUS 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN OK /
WESTERN AR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT MORE MILD COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY PERSISTENT AND IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL
INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280222
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE PLUS 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN OK /
WESTERN AR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS A
BIT MORE MILD COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
ARE LARGELY PERSISTENT AND IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST. UPDATE WILL
INCORPORATE OBSERVED TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR WRN CONUS TODAY REMAINS
CUTOFF...AND HAS RESULTED IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WARM EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR WRN CONUS TODAY REMAINS
CUTOFF...AND HAS RESULTED IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WARM EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272028
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR WRN CONUS TODAY REMAINS
CUTOFF...AND HAS RESULTED IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. SHOWETR AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGING TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEAST
CHANCES TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. UNTIL THE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WARM EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL LEAD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272028
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR WRN CONUS TODAY REMAINS
CUTOFF...AND HAS RESULTED IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. SHOWETR AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGING TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEAST
CHANCES TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. UNTIL THE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WARM EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL LEAD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23








000
FXUS64 KTSA 271712
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO BUMP
UP COVERAGE SOME...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271712
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A FEW AREAS OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO BUMP
UP COVERAGE SOME...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  83  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271632
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO BUMP
UP COVERAGE SOME...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   85  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   81  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   83  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   83  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 271632
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO BUMP
UP COVERAGE SOME...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   85  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   81  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   83  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
F10   83  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23






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