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000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 262053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAYS COLD FRONT HAS RACED THROUGH THE AREA...AND IS CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH GUSTS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LESSENING WITH SUNSET.
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS NEAREST THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IN FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WELL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA INTO LATE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IT MAY NOT FEEL AS COOL AS TODAY TO SOME. THE
HIGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN FROM ITS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STATE
OF LATE. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE 15 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK FOR
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GAINING A SLIGHT WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE CRITERIA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE LATEST DATA GENERALLY FAVOR A
LATER ARRIVAL THAN THEIR PREDECESSORS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SPOTS...LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...TO REACH THE MID 70S OR SO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44. WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS...MAINLY FOR
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS
MIGHT HAVE GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECEDING
DAYS AND ALSO THE LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BIG EVENT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...ALLOWING
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN ANYTHING BUT STABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...SO FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  49  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   29  49  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  53  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  47  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  46  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  44  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  49  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  45  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   32  55  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 261722
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COL ADVECTION
STRATOCU WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS MAINLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS FOR
PART OF THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22








000
FXUS64 KTSA 261656
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1056 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY ACROSS NW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY TO FILL BACK IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY. IN SPIT
OF THIS...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
FULL EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT NOT FELT UNTIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING
DAY. WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH 40 KNOTS
OF WINDS SAMPLED AT 925MB BY KNIX VAD PROFILER. WILL UP WIND
SPEEDS A BIT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL REMOVE
MORNING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   50  24  47  34 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   50  25  45  34 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22









000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z-01Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z-01Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 260837
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  27  49  38 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   56  29  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   58  29  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  23  48  34 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   49  24  47  34 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   48  25  45  34 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   57  27  49  36 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  24  46  34 /  10  10  10   0
F10   58  28  51  39 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 260546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-15Z.
APPROXIMATE 11Z KBVO  12Z KTUL KRVS  14Z KMLC  KXNA  KROG
KFYV  15Z KFSM.  MID CLOUD UNTIL COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NW WIND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   33  56  30  53 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   35  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  52  26  50 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   30  49  26  49 /   0  20   0  10
BYV   31  48  26  47 /   0  20   0  10
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   34  47  26  48 /   0  10  10  10
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  65  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 260302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN
THAT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE NIGHT...FEEL THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY REASONABLE. BVO AND FYV DROPPED VERY FAST
AFTER SUNSET...BUT BVO HAS RECOVERED A LITTLE AND CLOUDS ARE NOW
REACHING FYV. THE STANDARD TREND IN NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL NOT HOLD
TONIGHT. TEMPS COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AND RISE FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT ALL NIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY ABOUT 5 AM...THE COLD
FRONT...NOW IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHOULD PUSH INTO OSAGE COUNTY AND
EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   30  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   34  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 260009
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES 11Z-16Z TURNING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.  TRANSIENT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WITH FRONT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 252044
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD STORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS LARGELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR 20
DEGREES. A RETURN TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...DESPITE THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
WINDS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...EVEN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL BE ALLOWED BACK INTO THE REGION AS
THIS OCCURS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT AIDING IN THE
WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
SOUTH BUT NEAR THE AREA MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RETURNING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  56  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  55  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  52  26  49 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   32  51  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   35  57  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   34  52  26  48 /   0  10   0   0
F10   36  58  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  62  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251726
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME
PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251652
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PATCH OF AC ACROSS ERN OK HAS BEEN THINNING OVER
THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SOME
CLOUDINESS MARKING ITS PASSAGE. A BIG WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE IT
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  35  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  33  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   54  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   50  32  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   47  31  53  24 /   0   0  10   0
BYV   46  31  52  25 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   51  34  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   47  33  53  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   52  35  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   56  34  62  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED DOWN SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT ANYTIME THE WIND PICKS UP DUE TO THE
PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR THIS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN...UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY OR INTO SUNDAY EVENING
PROBABLE. AT THE VERY LEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION AND AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER THE VALID PERIOD FOR THIS FORECAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  52  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  48  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  47  32  51 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   29  52  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  49  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 242046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD COMING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED DOWN SOUTH OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT ANYTIME THE WIND PICKS UP DUE TO THE
PERSISTENTLY LOW DEW POINTS...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR THIS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN...UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL. SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY OR INTO SUNDAY EVENING
PROBABLE. AT THE VERY LEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION AND AT LEAST SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER THE VALID PERIOD FOR THIS FORECAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  52  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   25  48  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   26  47  32  51 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   29  52  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   25  49  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  53  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   33  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241614
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1014 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY WAS LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH THE CWA BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE SHOULD KEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BREEZY IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. THOUGH...
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK TEMP AND WIND GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   52  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 AM UTC MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
W-NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS TODAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240934
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY
BRING COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY THAT TIME AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
DUE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  28  52  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   59  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  30  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   57  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   53  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
F10   59  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON MONDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON MONDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH CONTINUE BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 10 PM. LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION ENDING.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







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