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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight
across southeastern Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across the
area as a warm front advances north into northern Texas. The instability
and shear will be adequate for some of the thunderstorms to become strong
to severe with large hail the concern. Current forecast for tonight is
on track.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of tonight w/ lowering
ceilings from south to north as moisture streams northward late
tonight through Friday. Widespread convection is also expected
much of the day Friday...and when combined with expected
ceilings...flight conditions will lower into widespread low MVFR
to IFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast
Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the
desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the
four corners region by 12z Friday. In response, elevated strong
thunderstorms will likely develop/spread north into southeast
Oklahoma late tonight. This activity will continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning with a damaging wind/large hail threat. Along with the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas south of
Interstate 40. Given the relatively low flash flood guidance, a
flash flood watch will be issued for aforementioned area.

Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm
front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the
morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon
hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the
red river. Any breaks in the thunderstorm activity would allow for
sufficient destabilization to support supercell thunderstorms
given the increasing deep layer shear. In addition, any residual
boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially
given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight
hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.

Thunderstorm should be begin to shift east of the region Saturday
morning. A few lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through Saturday
evening.

Cool conditions expected Sunday into the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds over the region with temperatures
remaining near or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  62  76 /  50  80  80  20
FSM   60  75  63  80 /  50  90  80  50
MLC   62  74  61  78 /  70  90  80  20
BVO   52  72  57  75 /  40  80  80  10
FYV   54  70  60  76 /  30  80  80  50
BYV   54  69  59  77 /  20  80  80  50
MKO   57  73  61  75 /  50  80  80  20
MIO   54  72  59  75 /  30  80  80  20
F10   57  73  61  76 /  60  80  70  20
HHW   61  76  65  80 /  80  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 290200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight
across southeastern Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across the
area as a warm front advances north into northern Texas. The instability
and shear will be adequate for some of the thunderstorms to become strong
to severe with large hail the concern. Current forecast for tonight is
on track.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of tonight w/ lowering
ceilings from south to north as moisture streams northward late
tonight through Friday. Widespread convection is also expected
much of the day Friday...and when combined with expected
ceilings...flight conditions will lower into widespread low MVFR
to IFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast
Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the
desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the
four corners region by 12z Friday. In response, elevated strong
thunderstorms will likely develop/spread north into southeast
Oklahoma late tonight. This activity will continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning with a damaging wind/large hail threat. Along with the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas south of
Interstate 40. Given the relatively low flash flood guidance, a
flash flood watch will be issued for aforementioned area.

Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm
front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the
morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon
hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the
red river. Any breaks in the thunderstorm activity would allow for
sufficient destabilization to support supercell thunderstorms
given the increasing deep layer shear. In addition, any residual
boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially
given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight
hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.

Thunderstorm should be begin to shift east of the region Saturday
morning. A few lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through Saturday
evening.

Cool conditions expected Sunday into the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds over the region with temperatures
remaining near or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  62  76 /  50  80  80  20
FSM   60  75  63  80 /  50  90  80  50
MLC   62  74  61  78 /  70  90  80  20
BVO   52  72  57  75 /  40  80  80  10
FYV   54  70  60  76 /  30  80  80  50
BYV   54  69  59  77 /  20  80  80  50
MKO   57  73  61  75 /  50  80  80  20
MIO   54  72  59  75 /  30  80  80  20
F10   57  73  61  76 /  60  80  70  20
HHW   61  76  65  80 /  80  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 282329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of tonight w/ lowering
ceilings from south to north as moisture streams northward late
tonight through Friday. Widespread convection is also expected
much of the day Friday...and when combined with expected
ceilings...flight conditions will lower into widespread low MVFR
to IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast
Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the
desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the
four corners region by 12z Friday. In response, elevated strong
thunderstorms will likely develop/spread north into southeast
Oklahoma late tonight. This activity will continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning with a damaging wind/large hail threat. Along with the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas south of
Interstate 40. Given the relatively low flash flood guidance, a
flash flood watch will be issued for aforementioned area.

Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm
front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the
morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon
hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the
red river. Any breaks in the thunderstorm activity would allow for
sufficient destabilization to support supercell thunderstorms
given the increasing deep layer shear. In addition, any residual
boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially
given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight
hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.

Thunderstorm should be begin to shift east of the region Saturday
morning. A few lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through Saturday
evening.

Cool conditions expected Sunday into the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds over the region with temperatures
remaining near or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  57  73  62 /   0  50  80  80
FSM   81  60  75  63 /   0  50  90  80
MLC   80  62  74  61 /   0  70  90  80
BVO   74  52  72  57 /   0  40  80  80
FYV   75  54  70  60 /   0  30  80  80
BYV   75  54  69  59 /   0  20  80  80
MKO   77  57  73  61 /   0  50  80  80
MIO   72  54  72  59 /   0  30  80  80
F10   78  57  73  61 /   0  60  80  70
HHW   84  61  76  65 /   0  80  90  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281942
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast
Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the
desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the
four corners region by 12z Friday. In response, elevated strong
thunderstorms will likely develop/spread north into southeast
Oklahoma late tonight. This activity will continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning with a damaging wind/large hail threat. Along with the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas south of
Interstate 40. Given the relatively low flash flood guidance, a
flash flood watch will be issued for aforementioned area.

Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm
front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the
morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon
hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the
red river. Any breaks in the thunderstorm activity would allow for
sufficient destabilization to support supercell thunderstorms
given the increasing deep layer shear. In addition, any residual
boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially
given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight
hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.

Thunderstorm should be begin to shift east of the region Saturday
morning. A few lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through Saturday
evening.

Cool conditions expected Sunday into the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds over the region with temperatures
remaining near or below normal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  62  76 /  40  80  80  20
FSM   60  76  63  80 /  30  90  80  50
MLC   62  74  61  78 /  60  90  80  20
BVO   52  72  57  76 /  30  80  80  10
FYV   54  70  60  76 /  10  80  80  50
BYV   54  69  59  77 /  10  80  80  50
MKO   57  73  61  75 /  40  80  80  20
MIO   54  72  59  76 /  20  60  80  20
F10   57  73  61  76 /  40  90  70  20
HHW   61  74  65  80 /  60  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281728
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day and
into the evening hours. After midnight tonight...VFR cigs will
develop and will eventually lower into the MVFR range Friday
morning. Warm advection will produce sct storms after 2 am across
north TX, which will spread across portions of E OK and NW AR
thru midday Friday. The better chances for storms will be at KMLC
and KFSM, where tempo groups were used, while prob30 groups were
used at the other sites farther north where there`s a little more
uncertainty.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief IFR vsbys in fog across parts of northwest AR this morning.
Conditions to improve at KFYV by mid morning as temp/dewpoint
spreads increase along with surface winds. Thunderstorms that
develop tonight likely to stay south of KMLC. VFR cigs expected to
spread north during the latter half of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Occluded frontal system has pushed well east...with higher
dewpoint air suppressed into srn TX and through the Gulf coast
states. Expect a rather pleasant day...as the
northeasterly/easterly flow maintains the dry low-level airmass.

The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today
as a warm front...and should stretch roughly west-east along the
Red River by late tonight. This will bring the higher dewpoints
farther north as well...with 55-60F dewpoints likely across
southern OK toward Friday morning. A strengthening low-level jet
along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection
along and north of the warm front...generally after 06z...with
the activity spreading into mainly east-central and southeast OK.
There will be some risk of hail with the elevated
storms...although better severe chances are expected to remain to
our southwest.

The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in
question on Friday...but plan on leaning toward the ECMWF/GFS
solution of keeping the front near the Red River at least during
the early part of the day. Impressive isentropic lift will persist
through eastern TX into southeast OK...and we`ll need to keep a
close eye on the heavy rainfall potential especially over
southeast OK. Additional storms are expected during the day along
the eastward advancing dryline...and this activity will eventually
spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the
surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific
front surges east. Again the greatest severe weather threat looks
to stay mostly southwest of the forecast area...although this
could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting
in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.

Convection should be moving east of the area on Saturday as the
Pacific front eventually clears. Sunday is looking cooler and
dry...with low-end PoP returning early next mainly for the
southern half of the area.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  74  62  76 /  40  80  80  20
FSM   60  77  63  80 /  30  90  80  50
MLC   62  75  61  78 /  60  90  80  20
BVO   52  73  57  76 /  30  80  80  10
FYV   54  71  60  76 /  10  80  80  50
BYV   54  70  59  77 /  10  70  80  50
MKO   57  74  61  75 /  40  80  80  20
MIO   54  73  59  76 /  20  60  80  20
F10   57  74  61  76 /  40  90  70  20
HHW   61  75  65  80 /  60  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 281132
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief IFR vsbys in fog across parts of northwest AR this morning.
Conditions to improve at KFYV by mid morning as temp/dewpoint
spreads increase along with surface winds. Thunderstorms that
develop tonight likely to stay south of KMLC. VFR cigs expected to
spread north during the latter half of the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Occluded frontal system has pushed well east...with higher
dewpoint air suppressed into srn TX and through the Gulf coast
states. Expect a rather pleasant day...as the
northeasterly/easterly flow maintains the dry low-level airmass.

The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today
as a warm front...and should stretch roughly west-east along the
Red River by late tonight. This will bring the higher dewpoints
farther north as well...with 55-60F dewpoints likely across
southern OK toward Friday morning. A strengthening low-level jet
along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection
along and north of the warm front...generally after 06z...with
the activity spreading into mainly east-central and southeast OK.
There will be some risk of hail with the elevated
storms...although better severe chances are expected to remain to
our southwest.

The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in
question on Friday...but plan on leaning toward the ECMWF/GFS
solution of keeping the front near the Red River at least during
the early part of the day. Impressive isentropic lift will persist
through eastern TX into southeast OK...and we`ll need to keep a
close eye on the heavy rainfall potential especially over
southeast OK. Additional storms are expected during the day along
the eastward advancing dryline...and this activity will eventually
spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the
surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific
front surges east. Again the greatest severe weather threat looks
to stay mostly southwest of the forecast area...although this
could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting
in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.

Convection should be moving east of the area on Saturday as the
Pacific front eventually clears. Sunday is looking cooler and
dry...with low-end PoP returning early next mainly for the
southern half of the area.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280848
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
348 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Occluded frontal system has pushed well east...with higher
dewpoint air suppressed into srn TX and through the Gulf coast
states. Expect a rather pleasant day...as the
northeasterly/easterly flow maintains the dry low-level airmass.

The front situated across TX will begin to lift north later today
as a warm front...and should stretch roughly west-east along the
Red River by late tonight. This will bring the higher dewpoints
farther north as well...with 55-60F dewpoints likely across
southern OK toward Friday morning. A strengthening low-level jet
along with improving isentropic lift will result in convection
along and north of the warm front...generally after 06z...with
the activity spreading into mainly east-central and southeast OK.
There will be some risk of hail with the elevated
storms...although better severe chances are expected to remain to
our southwest.

The degree of northward progression of the warm front remains in
question on Friday...but plan on leaning toward the ECMWF/GFS
solution of keeping the front near the Red River at least during
the early part of the day. Impressive isentropic lift will persist
through eastern TX into southeast OK...and we`ll need to keep a
close eye on the heavy rainfall potential especially over
southeast OK. Additional storms are expected during the day along
the eastward advancing dryline...and this activity will eventually
spread across the forecast area Friday evening/night as the
surface cyclone lifts into northwest OK and the dryline/Pacific
front surges east. Again the greatest severe weather threat looks
to stay mostly southwest of the forecast area...although this
could change if the warm front lifts farther north thus resulting
in a larger warm sector across parts of the forecast area.

Convection should be moving east of the area on Saturday as the
Pacific front eventually clears. Sunday is looking cooler and
dry...with low-end PoP returning early next mainly for the
southern half of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  57  75  60 /   0  40  70  80
FSM   83  60  75  63 /   0  30  80  80
MLC   81  62  75  62 /   0  60  80  80
BVO   74  54  74  57 /   0  30  70  80
FYV   78  54  71  61 /   0  10  70  80
BYV   77  54  71  60 /   0  10  70  80
MKO   78  58  74  61 /   0  40  80  80
MIO   74  55  73  60 /   0  20  50  80
F10   78  59  74  62 /   0  40  80  70
HHW   83  62  76  66 /   0  60  90  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280456
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1156 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all TAF sites with mid and high clouds moving into the area
late in the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...

The small pops in the east have been removed. See discussion
below.

DISCUSSION...

Low thunderstorm chances have been removed from the forecast...as
latest surface analysis indicates that Pacific front has moved
east of NW AR. No other changes are needed at this time. A
tranquil and much cooler night is in store for the region.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&


$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272329
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

UPDATE...

The small pops in the east have been removed. See discussion
below.

DISCUSSION...

Low thunderstorm chances have been removed from the forecast...as
latest surface analysis indicates that Pacific front has moved
east of NW AR. No other changes are needed at this time. A
tranquil and much cooler night is in store for the region.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
626 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The small pops in the east have been removed. See discussion
below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low thunderstorm chances have been removed from the forecast...as
latest surface analysis indicates that Pacific front has moved
east of NW AR. No other changes are needed at this time. A
tranquil and much cooler night is in store for the region.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  75 /   0   0  40  70
FSM   55  82  60  75 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   52  81  62  75 /   0   0  60  80
BVO   47  74  54  73 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   50  78  54  71 /  10   0  10  70
BYV   50  77  54  70 /  10   0  10  60
MKO   52  78  58  74 /   0   0  40  80
MIO   49  74  55  73 /   0   0  20  50
F10   52  78  60  74 /   0   0  40  80
HHW   54  82  62  75 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  75 /   0   0  40  70
FSM   55  82  60  75 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   52  81  62  75 /   0   0  60  80
BVO   47  74  54  73 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   50  78  54  71 /  10   0  10  70
BYV   50  77  54  70 /  10   0  10  60
MKO   52  78  58  74 /   0   0  40  80
MIO   49  74  55  73 /   0   0  20  50
F10   52  78  60  74 /   0   0  40  80
HHW   54  82  62  75 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272003
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This forecast will start out on a much quieter note than the last
several, with a brief dry period expected to last from tonight
through tomorrow evening. There remains some potential for
isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon across far eastern
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, given how winds in that
area have backed to more southwesterly in the past hour and the
slightly more enhanced cu development in the same vicinity.

Thunderstorms will begin to increase from the southwest after
midnight Thursday night, associated with a lead mid level wave in
advance of the larger upper trough in the Four Corners region. The
heaviest rain will likely be focused across the southern half of
the area during the day Friday, just to the north of the slowly
advancing warm front. There will be some severe weather potential,
but the expectation is that the biggest threat will remain to the
south and west.

The dry slot associated with the main upper trough will begin to
move into the region from the southwest late Friday night and into
Saturday, which will push the biggest chance of thunderstorms into
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Saturday and into Saturday
night.

Another dry period will last from Sunday into Sunday night, with
another increase in thunderstorm potential for the early part of
next week.

Temperature wise, things should be near to below normal through
the period, with the coolest temperatures likely from the latter
part of the weekend into the early part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  76  57  75 /   0   0  40  70
FSM   55  82  60  75 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   52  81  62  75 /   0   0  60  80
BVO   47  74  54  73 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   50  78  54  71 /  10   0  10  70
BYV   50  77  54  70 /  10   0  10  60
MKO   52  78  58  74 /   0   0  40  80
MIO   49  74  55  73 /   0   0  20  50
F10   52  78  60  74 /   0   0  40  80
HHW   54  82  62  75 /   0   0  60  80

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271719
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1219 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sct-bkn high end MVFR/low end VFR cigs will swing across NE OK and
NW AR thru the day. Winds will gradually veer to SWrly with some
gusts up to 20 kts possible. Any TSRA chance should be east of the
TAF sites. VFR conditions will persist with light winds tonight.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Upper level low pressure was centered near the KS/NE border late
this morning. At the surface, low pressure was located near
Lincoln, NE with a Pacific cold front extending south of the low
across E OK. The front will continue to slide east across E OK
into NW AR as the upper/surface low pressure lifts E/NE. An
isolated storm or two is possible ahead of the front over NW AR
before the front clears the area. Despite the fact that the
quality moisture was shunted well south by outflow from last
night`s storms...enough moisture is still present to yield some
instability in the presence of sufficient deep layer shear.
Thus...a limited risk of severe hail/wind can`t be ruled out just
yet thru the midday and early afternoon hours. Storm chances
should be done by mid to late afternoon.

I made no major tweaks to the forecast temps. Some tweaks were
made to cloud cover. Updated text products have been sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will occur at times for the first few hours of this TAF issuance.
Cigs should mix out some by mid morning as slightly drier air
continues to work into the region. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all sites from about mid morning on. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across far eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain too low for TAF
inclusion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  80  57  75 /   0   0  30  40
FSM   55  85  60  76 /  10   0  20  40
MLC   53  84  63  75 /   0   0  40  70
BVO   49  77  53  74 /  10   0  30  40
FYV   49  79  54  72 /  10   0  10  40
BYV   51  79  54  72 /  10   0  10  30
MKO   53  80  58  74 /  10   0  30  50
MIO   49  77  55  74 /  10   0  10  30
F10   53  81  60  74 /   0   0  40  70
HHW   55  84  63  77 /  10   0  40  70

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1128 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level low pressure was centered near the KS/NE border late
this morning. At the surface, low pressure was located near
Lincoln, NE with a Pacific cold front extending south of the low
across E OK. The front will continue to slide east across E OK
into NW AR as the upper/surface low pressure lifts E/NE. An
isolated storm or two is possible ahead of the front over NW AR
before the front clears the area. Despite the fact that the
quality moisture was shunted well south by outflow from last
night`s storms...enough moisture is still present to yield some
instability in the presence of sufficient deep layer shear.
Thus...a limited risk of severe hail/wind can`t be ruled out just
yet thru the midday and early afternoon hours. Storm chances
should be done by mid to late afternoon.

I made no major tweaks to the forecast temps. Some tweaks were
made to cloud cover. Updated text products have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will occur at times for the first few hours of this TAF issuance.
Cigs should mix out some by mid morning as slightly drier air
continues to work into the region. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all sites from about mid morning on. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across far eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain too low for TAF
inclusion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  51  80  57 /  10   0   0  30
FSM   84  55  85  60 /  20  10   0  20
MLC   79  53  84  63 /  10   0   0  40
BVO   76  49  77  53 /  10  10   0  30
FYV   77  49  79  54 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   77  51  79  54 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   78  53  80  58 /  10  10   0  30
MIO   75  49  77  55 /  10  10   0  10
F10   77  53  81  60 /  10   0   0  40
HHW   82  55  84  63 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will occur at times for the first few hours of this TAF issuance.
Cigs should mix out some by mid morning as slightly drier air
continues to work into the region. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all sites from about mid morning on. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across far eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain too low for TAF
inclusion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will occur at times for the first few hours of this TAF issuance.
Cigs should mix out some by mid morning as slightly drier air
continues to work into the region. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all sites from about mid morning on. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across far eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain too low for TAF
inclusion.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270834
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  51  80  57 /  10   0   0  30
FSM   84  55  85  60 /  20  20   0  20
MLC   80  53  84  63 /  10   0   0  40
BVO   77  49  77  53 /  10  10   0  30
FYV   78  49  79  54 /  20  20   0  10
BYV   78  51  79  54 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   79  53  80  58 /  10  10   0  30
MIO   76  49  77  55 /  10  10   0  10
F10   78  53  81  60 /  10   0   0  40
HHW   83  55  84  63 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1157 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A main line of convection will continue to push across far
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas tonight...with showers and
embedded thunderstorms behind the main line. Within the main line
of convection...strong winds and possible MVFR conditions will be
possible for the Northwest Arkansas TAF sites. VFR conditions
should be common within the showers and embedded thunderstorms
behind the convection. Preicp is expected to taper off from west
to east tonight/early Wednesday morning...with scattered high
clouds forecast for Wednesday afternoon and evening across the CWA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QLCS is entering the northwest part of our forecast area at this
time and will move east across all of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight. Damaging winds will be the main
threat, along with brief, isolated spinup tornadoes along the
leading edge. Some hail may also occur, but most of it will be
small. Have adjusted first period elements to fit current
trends, with the rest of the forecast left as is.

Update on the way.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  78  52  80 / 100  10   0  10
FSM   63  83  55  85 / 100  30  20  10
MLC   62  80  53  84 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   60  77  49  77 / 100  10  10  10
FYV   60  76  49  79 / 100  40  20  10
BYV   62  78  52  80 / 100  40  20  10
MKO   61  79  52  81 / 100  20  10  10
MIO   61  78  51  77 / 100  20  10  10
F10   61  78  53  81 / 100  10   0  10
HHW   63  81  56  85 / 100  20  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270234
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
934 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QLCS is entering the northwest part of our forecast area at this
time and will move east across all of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight. Damaging winds will be the main
threat, along with brief, isolated spinup tornadoes along the
leading edge. Some hail may also occur, but most of it will be
small. Have adjusted first period elements to fit current
trends, with the rest of the forecast left as is.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
645 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Broken mid clouds this evening across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas will give way to thunderstorms moving through
the CWA this evening and overnight. Thunderstorm activity looks to
reach Eastern Oklahoma TAF sites around 03-05z and into Northwest
Arkansas TAF sites 06-08z. MVFR conditions and gusty variable
winds will be possible within any thunderstorm activity. Will
continue to monitor for any difference in timing. Additional
precip will be possible Wednesday across Northwest Arkansas and
will carry prob30 groups for the morning hours. Also...MVFR
ceilings look to possibly filter back into Northwest Arkansas
Wednesday morning before lifting back to VFR for the afternoon
hours. VFR conditions with westerly winds look to be common for
Eastern Oklahoma Wednesday behind the precip.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated significant severe weather event is finally
upon us, with a Tornado Watch just issued for a portion of eastern
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have developed within the last hour along
the dryline in western Oklahoma. Cu development farther south
along the dryline into northwest Texas is also evident, with
additional storm initiation expected within the next couple of
hours in that region. In addition, there is noted cu development
in the warm sector well ahead of the dryline in central Oklahoma.
Mesoanalysis indicating 4,000-5,000 J/kg of CAPE ahead of the
dryline across a good portion of Oklahoma, with values closer to
the 3,000-4,000 range in much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Deep layer shear is increasing and will continue to do
so through the evening with the approach of the upper level jet,
currently stretching across west Texas, leading to an increasing
severe weather threat across the forecast area through the evening
and overnight hours. Thunderstorms should continue to develop
through the afternoon and early evening hours along the dryline
and perhaps in advance of it as well. Except for initial
development that might affect areas generally west of Highway 75
late afternoon and evening, there should be an increasing
tendency toward more linear structures this far east, given more
northerly storm movements with the approach of the upper low. Much
of the high resolution guidance has favored a later arrival of
storms in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with much of the
activity in this part of the country likely to be after dark.
Despite the loss of daytime heating, however, shear parameters
will remain supportive of tornadoes well into the night, including
within QLCS structures.

Much of the thunderstorm activity will be east of the forecast
area by tomorrow morning, but additional thunderstorms could
develop during the afternoon hours across portions of northwest
Arkansas and maybe far southeast Oklahoma, with the dryline
expected to be slow to clear the area.

A brief dry period will arrive for early Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday evening, before additional rain and
thunderstorms develop to the southwest and spread northeastward
with the approach of another upper level storm system. This system
will affect the area into Saturday, leading to the potential for
heavy rain piling up mainly across southeast Oklahoma. Yet another
system looks likely for the early part of the week with attendant
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  52  80 /  80  10   0  10
FSM   65  83  55  85 /  80  30  20  10
MLC   64  80  53  84 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   62  77  49  77 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   62  76  49  79 /  80  40  20  10
BYV   64  78  52  80 /  80  40  20  10
MKO   63  79  52  81 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   63  78  51  77 /  80  20  10  10
F10   63  78  53  81 /  80  10   0  10
HHW   65  81  56  85 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262000
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The much anticipated significant severe weather event is finally
upon us, with a Tornado Watch just issued for a portion of eastern
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have developed within the last hour along
the dryline in western Oklahoma. Cu development farther south
along the dryline into northwest Texas is also evident, with
additional storm initiation expected within the next couple of
hours in that region. In addition, there is noted cu development
in the warm sector well ahead of the dryline in central Oklahoma.
Mesoanalysis indicating 4,000-5,000 J/kg of CAPE ahead of the
dryline across a good portion of Oklahoma, with values closer to
the 3,000-4,000 range in much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Deep layer shear is increasing and will continue to do
so through the evening with the approach of the upper level jet,
currently stretching across west Texas, leading to an increasing
severe weather threat across the forecast area through the evening
and overnight hours. Thunderstorms should continue to develop
through the afternoon and early evening hours along the dryline
and perhaps in advance of it as well. Except for initial
development that might affect areas generally west of Highway 75
late afternoon and evening, there should be an increasing
tendency toward more linear structures this far east, given more
northerly storm movements with the approach of the upper low. Much
of the high resolution guidance has favored a later arrival of
storms in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with much of the
activity in this part of the country likely to be after dark.
Despite the loss of daytime heating, however, shear parameters
will remain supportive of tornadoes well into the night, including
within QLCS structures.

Much of the thunderstorm activity will be east of the forecast
area by tomorrow morning, but additional thunderstorms could
develop during the afternoon hours across portions of northwest
Arkansas and maybe far southeast Oklahoma, with the dryline
expected to be slow to clear the area.

A brief dry period will arrive for early Thursday morning and
continue through Thursday evening, before additional rain and
thunderstorms develop to the southwest and spread northeastward
with the approach of another upper level storm system. This system
will affect the area into Saturday, leading to the potential for
heavy rain piling up mainly across southeast Oklahoma. Yet another
system looks likely for the early part of the week with attendant
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  52  80 /  80  10   0  10
FSM   65  83  55  85 /  80  30  20  10
MLC   64  80  53  84 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   62  77  49  77 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   62  76  49  79 /  80  40  20  10
BYV   64  78  52  80 /  80  40  20  10
MKO   63  79  52  81 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   63  78  51  77 /  80  20  10  10
F10   63  78  53  81 /  80  10   0  10
HHW   65  81  56  85 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261723
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Isolated thunderstorms ongoing and spreading into NE OK may pass
near terminal sites over the next few hours...otherwise widespread
low VFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail. Widespread convection
spreads across the region this evening through early Wed morning
with periodic IFR conditions possible. Expect clearing and VFR
later Wed morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms have developed this morning over central OK
and they are likely to gradually spread northeastward. Steep lapse
rates will support at least an isolated chance of large hail
potential however these storms are not the primary severe weather
focus for today.

Storms are expected to develop along the dryline from south
central KS into N TX and spread eastward from the evening into the
overnight hours. The preceding environment is strongly unstable
and will become increasingly sheared with time. Severe weather is
expected as the storms pass through eastern OK and eventually into
western AR later tonight. The likelihood of numerous cell mergers
and backed mid level winds may limit the tornadic potential
somewhat...with more favorable winds from late evening into the
overnight hours from SE OK into western AR. By this time more
linear convective segments are likely more typical with sporadic
..yet not zero tornadic...potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  80  52 /  30  80  10   0
FSM   83  65  85  55 /  10  80  30  20
MLC   80  64  82  53 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  62  79  49 /  30  80  10   0
FYV   81  62  78  49 /  10  80  30  20
BYV   83  64  80  52 /  10  80  50  20
MKO   81  63  81  52 /  20  80  20   0
MIO   83  63  80  51 /  20  80  20  10
F10   80  63  80  53 /  30  80  10   0
HHW   82  65  83  56 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261538
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1038 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms have developed this morning over central OK
and they are likely to gradually spread northeastward. Steep lapse
rates will support at least an isolated chance of large hail
potential however these storms are not the primary severe weather
focus for today.

Storms are expected to develop along the dryline from south
central KS into N TX and spread eastward from the evening into the
overnight hours. The preceding environment is strongly unstable
and will become increasingly sheared with time. Severe weather is
expected as the storms pass through eastern OK and eventually into
western AR later tonight. The likelihood of numerous cell mergers
and backed mid level winds may limit the tornadic potential
somewhat...with more favorable winds from late evening into the
overnight hours from SE OK into western AR. By this time more
linear convective segments are likely more typical with sporadic
...yet not zero tornadic...potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  83  54 /  40  80  10   0
FSM   83  64  84  57 /  20  80  30  20
MLC   80  65  83  53 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  61  82  51 /  40  80  10   0
FYV   81  62  80  52 /  20  80  30  20
BYV   83  63  80  55 /  20  80  50  20
MKO   81  65  82  53 /  20  80  20   0
MIO   83  64  82  53 /  20  80  20  10
F10   80  64  82  54 /  30  80  10   0
HHW   82  66  83  58 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
643 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings overspread the region this morning...cigs will
continue into the afternoon...lifting to VFR and possibly scattering
out by late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
affect the area around 23Z...with ceilings and visibilities
reduced to IFR/MVFR categories within storms. VFR categories
return to ERN OK sites around 06Z...and 08z-09z across the AR
sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A significant severe weather event will unfold late this afternoon
and persist into the overnight hours. Tornadoes will be
possible...especially during the evening hours...along with very
large hail and damaging winds.

Closed mid-level upper low across the southwestern states
continues to dig in the near term...with 90+kt jet noted along
southwestern periphery of system this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is
well underway...with dryline currently arcing across southwestern
KS...to near the TX/OK border and into southwestern TX. The
atmosphere ahead of the dryline is impressively moist...with
surface dewpoints currently running in the 65-70F range.

The dryline will mix slowly east today and is expected to be
across western OK by this afternoon. Destabilization in the warm
sector should be impressive...with MLCapes around 3500-4500 J/KG
ahead of the dryline. Despite less than impressive convergence
along the dryline...the arrival of a 60-70+ mid-level jet and
impressive height falls should lead to convective development
around the 20-22Z timeframe along and just west of the I-35
corridor...with storms likely arriving in the western portions of
our forecast area around 23-01Z per latest HRRRX output. Discrete
supercells will be possible with the initial activity during the
evening hours...with convection becoming more widespread by late
evening and into the overnight hours as the strong height falls
overspread the region and storms shift farther east into eastern
OK and western AR. The severe weather threat will come to and end
late tonight as storms shift farther east into AR.

Whatever is left of the Pacific front/dryline doesn`t completely
clear the region on Wednesday...and some redevelopment of
thunderstorms isn`t out of the question later Wednesday afternoon
across western AR and adjacent areas of far eastern OK.

Thursday will offer a brief break from the storms...although the
pattern quickly becomes unsettled again Friday and into the
weekend as the next upper low ejects into the Plains. The southern
half of the forecast area will have the best chance of seeing
additional showers/thunderstorms on Friday...although the severe
weather threat should remain a bit south of the area. Storm
chances continue into Saturday and perhaps early Sunday as active
southwesterly flow persists.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260834
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A significant severe weather event will unfold late this afternoon
and persist into the overnight hours. Tornadoes will be
possible...especially during the evening hours...along with very
large hail and damaging winds.

Closed mid-level upper low across the southwestern states
continues to dig in the near term...with 90+kt jet noted along
southwestern periphery of system this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is
well underway...with dryline currently arcing across southwestern
KS...to near the TX/OK border and into southwestern TX. The
atmosphere ahead of the dryline is impressively moist...with
surface dewpoints currently running in the 65-70F range.

The dryline will mix slowly east today and is expected to be
across western OK by this afternoon. Destabilization in the warm
sector should be impressive...with MLCapes around 3500-4500 J/KG
ahead of the dryline. Despite less than impressive convergence
along the dryline...the arrival of a 60-70+ mid-level jet and
impressive height falls should lead to convective development
around the 20-22Z timeframe along and just west of the I-35
corridor...with storms likely arriving in the western portions of
our forecast area around 23-01Z per latest HRRRX output. Discrete
supercells will be possible with the initial activity during the
evening hours...with convection becoming more widespread by late
evening and into the overnight hours as the strong height falls
overspread the region and storms shift farther east into eastern
OK and western AR. The severe weather threat will come to and end
late tonight as storms shift farther east into AR.

Whatever is left of the Pacific front/dryline doesn`t completely
clear the region on Wednesday...and some redevelopment of
thunderstorms isn`t out of the question later Wednesday afternoon
across western AR and adjacent areas of far eastern OK.

Thursday will offer a brief break from the storms...although the
pattern quickly becomes unsettled again Friday and into the
weekend as the next upper low ejects into the Plains. The southern
half of the forecast area will have the best chance of seeing
additional showers/thunderstorms on Friday...although the severe
weather threat should remain a bit south of the area. Storm
chances continue into Saturday and perhaps early Sunday as active
southwesterly flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  83  54 /  40  80  10   0
FSM   83  64  84  57 /  20  80  30  20
MLC   80  65  83  53 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  61  82  51 /  40  80  10   0
FYV   81  62  80  52 /  20  80  30  20
BYV   83  63  80  55 /  30  80  50  20
MKO   81  65  82  53 /  20  80  20   0
MIO   83  64  82  53 /  20  80  20  10
F10   80  64  82  54 /  30  80  10   0
HHW   82  66  83  58 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260834
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A significant severe weather event will unfold late this afternoon
and persist into the overnight hours. Tornadoes will be
possible...especially during the evening hours...along with very
large hail and damaging winds.

Closed mid-level upper low across the southwestern states
continues to dig in the near term...with 90+kt jet noted along
southwestern periphery of system this evening. Lee cyclogenesis is
well underway...with dryline currently arcing across southwestern
KS...to near the TX/OK border and into southwestern TX. The
atmosphere ahead of the dryline is impressively moist...with
surface dewpoints currently running in the 65-70F range.

The dryline will mix slowly east today and is expected to be
across western OK by this afternoon. Destabilization in the warm
sector should be impressive...with MLCapes around 3500-4500 J/KG
ahead of the dryline. Despite less than impressive convergence
along the dryline...the arrival of a 60-70+ mid-level jet and
impressive height falls should lead to convective development
around the 20-22Z timeframe along and just west of the I-35
corridor...with storms likely arriving in the western portions of
our forecast area around 23-01Z per latest HRRRX output. Discrete
supercells will be possible with the initial activity during the
evening hours...with convection becoming more widespread by late
evening and into the overnight hours as the strong height falls
overspread the region and storms shift farther east into eastern
OK and western AR. The severe weather threat will come to and end
late tonight as storms shift farther east into AR.

Whatever is left of the Pacific front/dryline doesn`t completely
clear the region on Wednesday...and some redevelopment of
thunderstorms isn`t out of the question later Wednesday afternoon
across western AR and adjacent areas of far eastern OK.

Thursday will offer a brief break from the storms...although the
pattern quickly becomes unsettled again Friday and into the
weekend as the next upper low ejects into the Plains. The southern
half of the forecast area will have the best chance of seeing
additional showers/thunderstorms on Friday...although the severe
weather threat should remain a bit south of the area. Storm
chances continue into Saturday and perhaps early Sunday as active
southwesterly flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  64  83  54 /  40  80  10   0
FSM   83  64  84  57 /  20  80  30  20
MLC   80  65  83  53 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  61  82  51 /  40  80  10   0
FYV   81  62  80  52 /  20  80  30  20
BYV   83  63  80  55 /  30  80  50  20
MKO   81  65  82  53 /  20  80  20   0
MIO   83  64  82  53 /  20  80  20  10
F10   80  64  82  54 /  30  80  10   0
HHW   82  66  83  58 /  20  80  20  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1150 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop at all sites between 08-10Z and
continue into the afternoon before lifting to VFR by late
afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will affect the
area beginning around 23Z, with ceilings and visibilities being
greatly reduced within storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system was moving across the Central Rocky
Mountains this evening with a cold front extending southwest...a
warm front extending east across Kansas and a dryline line over
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into Southwest Texas. Across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...southerly winds continued to
transport low level moisture into the region while skies ranged
from mostly clear to mostly cloudy. The cap had kept any
shower/thunderstorm activity from developing across CWA late this
afternoon/this evening.

Overnight...the closed low will continue to shift eastward to the
lee of the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday morning...with the
fronts/dryline remaining nearly stationary. Increasing warm air
advection and a low level jet interacting with the pooling
moisture near the warm front will allow for the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to be possible late tonight. Latest
short term models...Rap/Hrrr/Local in-house models... indicate
that the majority of any developing precip should remain north of
the CWA...though it could be close enough and will leave the small
pops in for the 06-12z time frame tonight.

The continued southerly flow and increasing moisture will again
aid in low level ceilings developing across the CWA late tonight
into Tuesday morning. Thus...these conditions should keep lows
tonight slightly warmer than last night with most locations
holding in the 60s. Evening update will be to tweak
pop/sky/temp/dewpoint/wind grids for tonight based on the
mentioned above and current trends. Rest of the forecast seems to
be handling well at this time.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05





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