Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KTSA 221517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH ALL SITES NOW REPORTING VIS
OF 3 MILES OR MORE. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM
AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OK AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK
UPDATE TO REFRESH MORNING WORDING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  75  56 /  10  40  40  10
FSM   79  50  72  52 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   79  53  72  54 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   80  55  76  52 /  10  50  30  10
FYV   73  46  71  48 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   70  47  71  51 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   78  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  10
MIO   77  53  74  52 /   0  30  40  10
F10   78  54  74  55 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   79  52  74  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 221136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220809
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. DON`T ANTICIPATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  57  75  56 /  10  40  40  10
FSM   78  50  72  52 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   78  53  72  54 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   79  55  76  52 /  10  50  30  10
FYV   72  46  71  48 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   69  47  71  51 /   0  10  20  10
MKO   77  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  10
MIO   76  53  74  52 /   0  30  40  10
F10   77  54  74  55 /  10  30  30  10
HHW   78  52  74  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 220238
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  77  57  74 /  10  10  40  40
FSM   54  77  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   56  76  54  74 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   54  78  55  75 /  10  10  40  40
FYV   49  72  49  71 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   49  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   56  76  54  73 /   0   0  30  30
MIO   54  76  54  74 /   0   0  30  40
F10   57  76  55  74 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   56  77  52  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 212320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 212043
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  77  57  74 /  10  10  40  40
FSM   53  77  52  73 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   55  76  54  74 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   53  78  55  75 /  10  10  40  40
FYV   48  72  49  71 /   0   0  20  20
BYV   48  69  48  72 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   55  76  54  73 /   0   0  30  30
MIO   53  76  54  74 /   0   0  30  40
F10   56  76  55  74 /   0  10  30  30
HHW   55  77  52  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211713
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG HAS DISSIPATED GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
03Z. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...MIXING DURING THE DAY TODAY
WILL NOT BE STRONG AND THUS EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS NW ARKANSAS AFTER
06Z. BACK TO ALL VFR AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07









000
FXUS64 KTSA 211516
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 10 AM...ALTHOUGH THE FOG CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW ARKANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS FOG IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE AND VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED AT FYV/SLG IN LAST HALF
HOUR. FELL AT THIS TIME THAT VSBYS SHOULD BE ALL ABOVE 1/4 MILE
WITHIN THE HOUR AND LIKELY CLEAR ALTOGETHER BY NOON.

OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM
INTO NORTHEAST TX RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 211130
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY AT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA...WITH KTUL MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP...WITH KFYV AND KXNA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210744
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AFFECTED AREA UNTIL MID-MORNING. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET IS KEEPING THE FOG IN CHECK FOR
THE TIME BEING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COUPLE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE ON TAP
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  78  56 /  10  10  10  50
FSM   80  55  76  52 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   80  57  77  54 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   78  53  78  55 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   76  48  72  47 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   74  50  71  48 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   79  55  76  54 /  10  10  10  40
MIO   78  53  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
F10   80  57  78  55 /  10  10  10  40
HHW   80  56  77  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210432
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT FYV/XNA LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING
THE BVO AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR PER REASONS DISCUSSED EARLIER. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FOG LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINED OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COOLER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED...WHILE A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. EITHER WAY...RH
VALUES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REACH CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
THUS FOR EVENING UPDATE...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER...UP TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO THE ALREADY FOG WORDING IN PLACE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR ANY POSSIBLE FOG HEADLINES.
REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 210002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER/RECENT RAINFALL HAS
KEPT TEMP/DEW-POINT SPREADS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW CROSSOVER VALUES AT FYV/XNA WITH
LIMITED MIXING OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
FORECASTING CONSTANT OR INCREASING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTS LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 202002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS RAIN AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE COMBINED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS NOW EXTENDING
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE 16-20C...HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE A GOOD
BET FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  78  57  77 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   55  80  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   57  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   51  78  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   49  75  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   49  72  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  78  55  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   56  80  56  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14










000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH LIMITED
MIXING...LIKELY RESULTING IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS
IN THE 09Z-14Z TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN NW ARKANSAS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ALL AREAS AFTER 15Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 201543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   74  47  73  47 /  30   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 201543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING WITH WANING LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS LEADING TO A WARM AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS EARLIER
THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND WILL LIKELY SEND ONE MORE
ONCE SHOWERS MOVE OUT. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   74  47  73  47 /  30   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 201033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS OR VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMLC. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THUNDER AT KTUL AND KRVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAV AND MET BOTH HIT ON IFR FOG AT KFYV AND
KXNA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL INCLUDE AT KFYV TAF WILL DROP KXNA
INTO THE IFR CAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200923
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDDAY. QUIET WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROF
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  77  54 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76  56  78  52 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   77  56  78  53 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   78  50  76  50 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  47  73  44 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   73  48  72  44 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   76  56  77  52 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   73  47  73  47 /  20   0   0  10
F10   77  57  77  53 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  55  78  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200454
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AT NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES DURING THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200208
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WERE MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A 20KT LLJ SETS UP OVER
THE CWA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITHIN WEST
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
AND ALSO THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SHOWS
THE LLJ DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED POPS SOUTHWARD AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AS PRECIP DEVELOPS
AND THUS KEEPING TEMPS WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192309
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL... WITH
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING AS
WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192031
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

VORTICITY MAX THAT MOVED EASTWARD ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TODAYS VORTICITY MAX MOVES FARTHER FROM
THE REGION. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY TO APPROACH 80. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE RIDGE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST.

THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHANGE WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY 75...SPREADING INTO MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST AT THE SAME TIME SEEMING TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING HIGHER POPS
FARTHER SOUTH IN A HEDGE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THINGS FINALLY CLEAR OUT.

QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE ON THE
WARMUP...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  78  56  79 /  30  20  10  10
FSM   51  75  55  77 /   0  20  10  10
MLC   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   53  78  51  77 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   49  73  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   50  72  48  72 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   52  77  55  78 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   53  74  51  75 /  30  20  10   0
F10   54  78  57  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   52  78  56  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities