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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280808
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   98  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   97  75  98  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   96  73  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   93  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   92  73  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   95  73  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
F10   96  74  96  75 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   98  73  99  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280433
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21




000
FXUS64 KTSA 280253
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL TWEAKS. ANOTHER HOT NIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272310
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 272100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....16




000
FXUS64 KTSA 272100
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES HAD REACHED BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA RISING BETWEEN 110-115. AS
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS MAXIMUM...A FEW ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN REACH JUST AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...COULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 110S AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND CONVECTION FORMS ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   77  98  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   76  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   73  96  72  93 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  92 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   75  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   74  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   74  98  73  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....16





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLD
TSRA POTENTIAL OVER IN WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
BE NEAR THE TAF SITES...THUS NO MENTION FOR THIS TAF FORECAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 15KTS ACROSS NE OK.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  74 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  73  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  95  72 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  74  98  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 271610
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED AT 500MB IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED
HEATING ON THE TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HRRR/NAM SHOW THIS
SIGNAL. THUS...AN ISOLATED THUNDER POP HAS BEEN INSERTED INTO THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE REQUIRED OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 271109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270853
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND A
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY MAY COME CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY DID SUNDAY BUT
MOST PLACES WILL COME UP SHORT.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER...BUT STILL LOW...CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND UPSLOPE CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES A RUN AT OUR
AREA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN OTHER WORDS HOT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENCE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   93  72  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   92  74  92  73 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   96  75  96  74 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   95  74  95  73 /  10   0   0  10
F10   96  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>068-070>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270438
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 270206
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS PRETTY MUCH A CARBON COPY
OF THE LAST SEVERAL EVENINGS... AS IS THE FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 262046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  99  79  98 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 262046
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  99  79  98 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   75  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA OVER WRN AR...BUT THE THOUGHT
IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TAF SITES
TO WARRANT A MENTION OF IT ATTM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA OVER WRN AR...BUT THE THOUGHT
IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TAF SITES
TO WARRANT A MENTION OF IT ATTM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 261526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261526
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM
THE HRRR/NAM IS EVIDENT...INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK OVER INTO WRN
AR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OCCURRED
YESTERDAY AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP IN THAT REGION TO
COVER. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST LEFT INTACT. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD END WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  20   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 261115
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260846
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260846
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE. DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND CONTINUED SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN THEM MIXING OUT EVEN MORE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL IN
MOST PLACES.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  76  99  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   94  73  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN KBVO
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN KBVO
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN KBVO
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN KBVO
TAF AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 260202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06





000
FXUS64 KTSA 260202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS EARLIER TO REMOVE POPS THAT WE
HAD IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06




000
FXUS64 KTSA 252327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10




000
FXUS64 KTSA 252327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252051
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  99  78  99 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   74  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  94  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   74  96  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
F10   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 252051
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO...THOUGH WERE STILL HELPING TO CREATE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THUS...WILL LET THE
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES RIDE AS IS. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS...THOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CWA AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER
THE REGION. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES TO NEAR
110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE CWA CONTINUE TO TRY TO DRY OUT SOME...WHICH WOULD
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING TO FAR OUT OF CONTROL.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS LOOKS TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER
ADVISORY.

BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD SOME AND A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...DROPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE HELD ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDER THE HIGH AND WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA...FOR NOW...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  99  78  99 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   74  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   72  94  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   75  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   74  96  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
F10   73  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  97  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251721
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA OVER IN WRN AR WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251721
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA OVER IN WRN AR WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
     069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 251101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KTSA 251101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE




000
FXUS64 KTSA 250845
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. RING
OF FIRE CONVECTION AROUND THE RIDGE MAY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME BUT POPS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 110 TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SO HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN ARKANSAS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK...BUT A SLOW DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS WE
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING STRONG AT THAT TIME SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE FINALLY
RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE BIT
OF THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY THAT TIME.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
FYV   94  71  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   94  72  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  74  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
F10   96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073-075.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





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