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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  60  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  80  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  90  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  60  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  60  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  50  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  50  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  80  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  90  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
741 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  60  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  80  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  90  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  60  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  60  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  50  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  60  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  50  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  80  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  90  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 251148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 251148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
PATCHY FOG / LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS COMPLEX
SWEEPS AREA FROM SW TO NE. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG / LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING.

AS A SIDE NOTE: CURRENTLY EVALUATING WHETHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250956
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 4 PM TO
NOON TUESDAY.

UPPER WAVE  HAS ROUNDED THE BEND FAR WEST TEXAS
AND IS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST OK. A WIDE SPECTRUM
MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS SHUNTING BULK PRECIP
TO SOUTHEAST WHILE ECMWF PLACES MAX PRECIP OVER
WATCH AREA. EVER WET CANADIAN MODEL PLACES MORE
THAN 2 INCH PRECIP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST CENTRAL AR IN A...6 HOUR PERIOD..ENDING AT
06Z!  LATEST HRRR RUNS GIVE CREDENCE TO GENERAL
ECMWF SOLUTION.  ALMOST ANY PRECIP FROM THUNDER
WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 INCH/ 30 MIN RAINFALL RATE
AND INITIATE FLOODING. STAY INFORMED STAY TUNED.

MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OVER BY TUESDAY MORNING.

NO REAL BREAK..THE REST OF THIS SHORT WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED EVERY DAY.
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND (OF COURSE) AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
WAVE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO PLAINS.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  82  65 /  40  40  20  50
FSM   81  64  82  68 /  50  90  30  40
MLC   78  64  82  68 /  80  60  20  40
BVO   81  60  82  62 /  30  30  20  50
FYV   78  62  79  62 /  30  80  30  40
BYV   80  64  80  63 /  30  80  30  40
MKO   78  63  81  66 /  50  60  20  50
MIO   79  63  81  63 /  30  50  20  50
F10   77  61  80  65 /  60  50  20  50
HHW   78  64  82  67 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250429
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH IFR OR
BELOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS
ENDED AND THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXITING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
WAVE...THE COOL...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS START TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   63  81  64  82 /  10  50  70  30
MLC   63  78  63  81 /  10  50  50  20
BVO   58  81  60  81 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   58  78  62  78 /  10  30  70  30
BYV   60  80  63  79 /  10  20  90  30
MKO   60  79  62  81 /  10  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  30  30  60  20
F10   59  79  62  80 /  10  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  10  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 250429
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH IFR OR
BELOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS
ENDED AND THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXITING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
WAVE...THE COOL...SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS START TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   63  81  64  82 /  10  50  70  30
MLC   63  78  63  81 /  10  50  50  20
BVO   58  81  60  81 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   58  78  62  78 /  10  30  70  30
BYV   60  80  63  79 /  10  20  90  30
MKO   60  79  62  81 /  10  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  30  30  60  20
F10   59  79  62  80 /  10  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  10  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 250027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 250027
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES REFLECT QPF AND POP ADJUSTMENTS. THE
HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
HOURLY RATES WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK
REASONABLE WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO THOSE ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN COMES TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING N-NE ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO FAR SE OK...WC AND NW AR. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED AS AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SYNOPTIC SCALE DRY INTRUSION IS PUNCHING INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF A PV MAX MOVING NORTH OVER CENTRAL OK.
THUS...RAINS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT...ALBIET TEMPORARY...IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING AT THE TAF SITES. THE SATURATED LOW LVL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
MOST TAF SITES BY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 242102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 242102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59







000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241758 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT
CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND LIFT NORTHWARD. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. TONIGHT THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SPOTS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20 MPH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LZK/59






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241559 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LZK/58






000
FXUS64 KTSA 241559 AAA
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ONLY WORSENING CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LZK/58







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240933
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FLOOD OF THE DECADE...AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TODAY. 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALREADY
COMMON...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF FIVE
INCHES TULSA OKMULGEE CREEK COUNTIES.

ANOTHER..1.5 TO 2 INCHES COMMON TODAY INTO TONIGHT
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD REACH  FIVE INCHES  ONCE AGAIN  GIVEN REPEAT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS TWIN MCVS IN TEXAS
AT THIS TIME.  STRONGER..MORE NORTHWEST MCV SOUTH
OF BRYAN COUNTY OK SPINNING NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS
MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH 1.7-1.9 PWA ENSURES ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIP  AND  WILL PUSH PRECIP BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME TODAY.

DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE ADDITIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT..WHILE MANY MAIN STEM
RIVERS OVERFLOW.

UNFORTUNATELY. NEXT WAVE  ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  BULK OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST CENTRAL / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE FLOOD
POTENTIAL THERE.

WET PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
GWILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  63  81  61 / 100  30  40  60
FSM   75  66  81  65 / 100  70  40 100
MLC   72  67  78  62 / 100  30  60  80
BVO   70  59  81  60 / 100  40  30  40
FYV   71  63  78  61 / 100  70  30 100
BYV   72  63  78  62 / 100  80  30  80
MKO   72  64  78  62 / 100  50  40  90
MIO   72  62  79  62 / 100  60  20  50
F10   70  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  70
HHW   73  67  78  66 / 100  40  80  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 240459
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 240255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WITH BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK TRANSLATING
SLOWLY TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN LINE AT
THIS TIME...SO UPDATES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE FOR ANY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH THAT RUNS UNTIL 4 AM.

FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN AXIS INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE EAST...INCLUDING NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 232316
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
616 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES...BOUNCING
FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES WITH STORMS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE AND MAY GUST
TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 232037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231619
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS UPDATES HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR COVERAGE TRENDS OF MORNING
CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST UPDATE WILL DELAY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NORTH TX INTO SW OK
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH. RESULT
WILL BE PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...PROFILES RESULT IN SKINNY CAPE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HOWEVER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL REMAIN THE FLOODING WHICH WILL WORSEN
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  70 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  30  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  50 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  70 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  30  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  50 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  50 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  60 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  50  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 231143
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IMPACTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230957
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION
SETTING UP TONIGHT  AND  SUNDAY FOR OSAGE WASHINGTON
NOWATA PAWNEE  TULSA  ROGERS  WAGONER CREEK OKMULGEE
AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES. FORECAST FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR PART / ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS
COULD BE...SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER. CREEK OSAGE PAWNEE
COUNTIES LOOK TO BE MOST VULNERABLE.  STAY TUNED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PROLONGED PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW COUPLED WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH  1.75
TO 2.00  PRECIPITABLE WATER SPELLS ULTRA WET EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT  WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT SUNDAY
EASTERN OK AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AR.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER BY DAYLIGHT MONDAY EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHEAST OK.  UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES WAVY
PATTERN...HOWEVER LESS POTENT WAVES. CHANCE POP MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  67  73  64 /  90 100 100  50
FSM   77  68  76  65 /  60  90  90  80
MLC   75  68  73  65 /  70 100 100  60
BVO   71  65  72  61 /  90 100 100  40
FYV   74  64  72  62 /  60  90 100  90
BYV   75  64  73  63 /  30  80  80  90
MKO   74  66  73  63 /  70 100 100  70
MIO   74  64  72  62 /  70 100 100  80
F10   73  66  70  63 /  80 100 100  60
HHW   77  67  73  65 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL GIVE WAY TO WORSENING FLYING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 230231
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS
SE OK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPAND
INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NE OK AND PERHAPS NW
AR UNDER A PERSISTENT 25-30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WHERE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  50  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  50  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  50  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  60  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99






000
FXUS64 KTSA 222045
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH TX WITH PERSISTENT UPGLIDE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PER AREA VAD WIND DATA HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY. NO APPARENT REASON WHY THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THUS HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THEN FOCUSES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
SHIFTING HIGH PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
THEN FOCUS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
NOT OVERLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SATURATED SOILS WILL ALLOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK ONSET FLOODING WITH ANY SUSTAINED RAINFALL.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
WESTERN ARKANSAS. GIVEN THE ATYPICAL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...DEEP
LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW...AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS THE SETUP
SUPPORTS **A DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY**.

PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINS WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER A MORE COMPACT WAVE
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS TROUGH AND SLIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN EVENTUAL
UPSCALE GROWTH OF A LARGE MCS LIKELY. THIS STORM COMPLEX HAS
POTENTIAL TO THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE OK / WESTERN AR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
LOCALIZED BUT JUST AS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SWATCH AS THE WEEKEND
RAINS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SCENARIO BUT IT NEEDS TO
BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...WITH THE FOCUS THEN TURNING TOWARD A LATE
WEEK COLD FRONT AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  76  66  74 /  50  70 100 100
FSM   58  80  67  76 /  60  30  90 100
MLC   59  78  67  73 /  70  50 100 100
BVO   55  73  65  73 /  60  80 100 100
FYV   55  76  64  72 /  30  40  90 100
BYV   55  77  64  75 /  30  30  70 100
MKO   58  77  66  73 /  40  60 100 100
MIO   55  75  65  73 /  40  70 100 100
F10   59  76  65  72 /  40  70 100 100
HHW   61  79  67  74 /  50  40 100 100

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN TAF IMPACTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE HANDLED WITH A COMBINATION OF PREVAILING
..TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LIMITED FOR
INCLUSION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE UPDATES THUS FAR REFLECT POP AND QPF ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY WILL REFLECT A HIGHER POP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG WITH INCREASED 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS. TAPERED
POPS SOME ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE...WITH
LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH 17Z-18Z
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN TAF IMPACTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE HANDLED WITH A COMBINATION OF PREVAILING
..TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LIMITED FOR
INCLUSION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE UPDATES THUS FAR REFLECT POP AND QPF ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY WILL REFLECT A HIGHER POP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG WITH INCREASED 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS. TAPERED
POPS SOME ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE...WITH
LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH 17Z-18Z
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN TAF IMPACTS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE HANDLED WITH A COMBINATION OF PREVAILING
..TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LIMITED FOR
INCLUSION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ZONE UPDATES THUS FAR REFLECT POP AND QPF ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY WILL REFLECT A HIGHER POP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG WITH INCREASED 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS. TAPERED
POPS SOME ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE...WITH
LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH 17Z-18Z
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 221457
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ZONE UPDATES THUS FAR REFLECT POP AND QPF ADJUSTMENTS.
UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY WILL REFLECT A HIGHER POP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG WITH INCREASED 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS. TAPERED
POPS SOME ACROSS NE OK THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE...WITH
LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HEAVIER...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH 17Z-18Z
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATE...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.




&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07






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