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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160417
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
NEWEST MODEL DATA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 160131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
831 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
NEWEST MODEL DATA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 152320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151944
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY COLD START THIS
MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS
OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES. WILL THEREFORE
GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DEVELOP WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA OF 25 PERCENT ACROSS OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...SPREAD INDICES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT GREENED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES...ELEVATED
OR OTHERWISE...APPEAR MARGINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR MOST AREAS.

MILD DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN INCREASING. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  67  44  61 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   35  65  42  67 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   37  67  43  66 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   33  69  40  58 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   32  61  37  63 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   32  61  38  64 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   36  66  41  63 /   0  10  10  50
MIO   36  66  40  61 /  10  10  10  50
F10   37  66  43  63 /   0  10  10  50
HHW   35  65  42  67 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151714
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT ALL SITES BEGINNING IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SENT A ZFP QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES FROM
THE AS NPW HAS EXPIRED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...AND
WILL AID A QUICK WARM UP. WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151414
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SENT A ZFP QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES FROM
THE AS NPW HAS EXPIRED...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...AND
WILL AID A QUICK WARM UP. WILL MONITOR TEMP TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12







000
FXUS64 KTSA 151049
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER WATCHING A BEAUTIFUL SPECTACLE OCCUR IN THE NIGHT SKY...IT`S
NOW TIME TO TALK WEATHER DOWN HERE ON PLANET EARTH. A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY IS IN STORE WITH NOT MUCH WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIND ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS CLIMB A BIT
MORE...RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
NEVER MAKES MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS...STAYING WELL SOUTH DOWN IN
TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS A RESULT AND HAVE BACKED DOWN
THUNDER PROBS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS LIFT INTERACTS
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOING FORECAST POPS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE
TIMING AND TRENDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WITH RIDGING MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES WITH EITHER
SYSTEM REALLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 150902
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER WATCHING A BEAUTIFUL SPECTACLE OCCUR IN THE NIGHT SKY...IT`S
NOW TIME TO TALK WEATHER DOWN HERE ON PLANET EARTH. A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY IS IN STORE WITH NOT MUCH WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIND ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS CLIMB A BIT
MORE...RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR
NEVER MAKES MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS...STAYING WELL SOUTH DOWN IN
TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS A RESULT AND HAVE BACKED DOWN
THUNDER PROBS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS LIFT INTERACTS
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOING FORECAST POPS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE
TIMING AND TRENDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WITH RIDGING MAINTAINED DOWN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED REGARDING SEVERE CHANCES WITH EITHER
SYSTEM REALLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   61  38  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   62  42  66  45 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   63  39  68  45 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   58  34  61  42 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   56  36  62  40 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   61  39  66  45 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   60  38  66  43 /   0   0  10  10
F10   62  41  65  46 /   0   0  10  10
HHW   62  39  66  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 150437
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST AR
AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING.
CORE OF COLD AIR AXIS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
JUST DEGREE  OR TWO AT THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. MOST MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITHIN  DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
LOWS FOR THE DATE. A WINTER COAT NECESSARY TO
OBSERVE LUNAR ECLIPSE.                     GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CIGS RUNNING AT 3500-5000 FT WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE THROUGH ALL THE SEASONS WEATHER WISE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH HEAT...SEVERE STORMS AND FINALLY SNOW. MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK....WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  64  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   30  62  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  64  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   24  58  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   27  58  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10
F10   29  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  62  39  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 150249
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
949 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EASTERN OK / NORTHWEST AR
AND WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING.
CORE OF COLD AIR AXIS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
JUST DEGREE  OR TWO AT THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. MOST MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITHIN  DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
LOWS FOR THE DATE. A WINTER COAT NECESSARY TO
OBSERVE LUNAR ECLIPSE.                     GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CIGS RUNNING AT 3500-5000 FT WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE THROUGH ALL THE SEASONS WEATHER WISE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH HEAT...SEVERE STORMS AND FINALLY SNOW. MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK....WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  64  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   30  62  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  64  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   24  58  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   27  58  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10
F10   29  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  62  39  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 142324
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CIGS RUNNING AT 3500-5000 FT WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE THROUGH ALL THE SEASONS WEATHER WISE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH HEAT...SEVERE STORMS AND FINALLY SNOW. MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK....WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  64  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   30  62  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   25  64  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   25  58  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   27  58  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10
F10   29  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  62  39  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 142120
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE THROUGH ALL THE SEASONS WEATHER WISE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH HEAT...SEVERE STORMS AND FINALLY SNOW. MORE TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK....WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  64  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   30  62  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   25  64  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   25  58  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   27  58  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   26  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10
F10   29  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  62  39  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 141711
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1211 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UPPER TROF AXIS CLEARING THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN AREAS AREAS OF
-RA/-SN OCCURRING ACROSS NE OK. AS THE TROF AXIS PULLS FURTHER NE
FROM THE AREA...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REACHED FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THAT POINT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES REFLECT EXPANDING SNOW MENTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS LIGHT PRECIP OCCURS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY N-NW WINDS. HOWEVER...THE TIME OF
YEAR SUGGESTS A LATE TEMPERATURE RALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
FAR NE OK IF SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...23







000
FXUS64 KTSA 141528
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES REFLECT EXPANDING SNOW MENTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AS LIGHT PRECIP OCCURS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY N-NW WINDS. HOWEVER...THE TIME OF
YEAR SUGGESTS A LATE TEMPERATURE RALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
FAR NE OK IF SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS THEY ARE.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 141150
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
650 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. SOME
REDUCTION IN VSBYS DUE TO -RA OR -SHRA EXPTD AT NE OK SITES...WITH
EVEN SOME -SN MIXING IN AT KBVO BTWN 15Z AND 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE...BACKING OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS WAVE SEEN IN VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS HAS LED TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF LIGHT PRECIP ATOP THE
POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS...AND AS THIS WAVE TURNS EASTWARD THE
PRECIP WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS ACROSS
AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN
SNOW MIX THIS MORNING...WITH ALL RAIN MOST LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF E OK / W AR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING NOT
ARRIVING TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR. THE
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO REACH
OR FALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NE OK / FAR NW AR.

TEMPS MODERATE ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NW AR TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND MILD TEMPS PREVAIL
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS / THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  28  61  39 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   49  30  60  36 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  29  60  38 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   47  26  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   43  25  56  31 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   43  26  55  32 /  60  10   0   0
MKO   47  27  59  37 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   44  24  58  36 /  60  10   0   0
F10   47  29  60  39 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   52  30  60  36 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 140849
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS WAVE SEEN IN VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS HAS LED TO AN EXPANDING REGION OF LIGHT PRECIP ATOP THE
POST FRONTAL COLD AIRMASS...AND AS THIS WAVE TURNS EASTWARD THE
PRECIP WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS ACROSS
AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL OK WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN
SNOW MIX THIS MORNING...WITH ALL RAIN MOST LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF E OK / W AR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING NOT
ARRIVING TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR. THE
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO REACH
OR FALL BELOW FREEZING...WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NE OK / FAR NW AR.

TEMPS MODERATE ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NW AR TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND MILD TEMPS PREVAIL
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS / THURS NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  28  61  39 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   49  30  60  36 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   47  29  60  38 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   47  26  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   43  25  56  31 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   43  26  55  32 /  60  10   0   0
MKO   47  27  59  37 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   44  24  58  36 /  60  10   0   0
F10   47  29  60  39 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   52  30  60  36 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 140237
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
WAVY LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED INTO AR...AND WILL CLEAR SE OK IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SO WILL BE ABLE TO
CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77 EARLY.

COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS ERN OK LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF THE MENTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  47  28  61 /  10  30   0   0
FSM   46  50  28  61 /  80  30  10   0
MLC   41  48  29  61 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   36  47  25  61 /  10  30   0   0
FYV   39  43  24  57 /  70  30  10   0
BYV   40  43  25  56 /  80  40  10   0
MKO   40  47  27  60 /  10  30  10   0
MIO   37  44  26  59 /  10  40  10   0
F10   39  47  28  61 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   46  52  30  60 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 132345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
645 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINE OF THUNDER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS ALREADY PASSED
TAF SITES KBVO KRVS KTUL.  ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AT SITES KXNA KFYV KMLC KFSM BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS TRAIL THUNDER/COLD FRONT BY ONE TO THREE HOURS.
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
DIMINISHING CLOUD LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS
OVER TIME...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES BEING QUITE LOW DUE TO THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT DIE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SO THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROF
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FREEZE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE NOW
PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...WHICH AT TUL/MLC/FYV/FSM ARE THE SAME
AS THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE OF APRIL 15TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  47  28  61 /  10  30   0   0
FSM   46  50  28  61 /  70  30  10   0
MLC   41  48  29  61 /  60  20  10   0
BVO   36  47  25  61 /  10  30   0   0
FYV   39  43  24  57 /  90  30  10   0
BYV   40  43  25  56 /  70  40  10   0
MKO   40  47  27  60 /  90  30  10   0
MIO   37  44  26  59 /  70  40  10   0
F10   39  47  28  61 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   46  52  30  60 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 132109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODELS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM HAIL TO DAMAGING WINDS
OVER TIME...WITH TORNADO PROBABILITIES BEING QUITE LOW DUE TO THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT DIE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SO THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY UPPER TROF
BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A FREEZE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE NOW
PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EVER RECORDED
FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON...WHICH AT TUL/MLC/FYV/FSM ARE THE SAME
AS THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE OF APRIL 15TH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  47  28  61 /  50  30   0   0
FSM   46  50  28  61 /  80  30  10   0
MLC   41  48  29  61 /  60  20  10   0
BVO   36  47  25  61 /  40  30   0   0
FYV   39  43  24  57 /  80  30  10   0
BYV   40  43  25  56 /  80  40  10   0
MKO   40  47  27  60 /  60  30  10   0
MIO   37  44  26  59 /  50  40  10   0
F10   39  47  28  61 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   46  52  30  60 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 131745
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE QUICKER FOR BVO/TUL/RVS. APPEARS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND MLC WILL KEEP SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STRONGER CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MAKING SOME MINOR UPDATES TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. NO
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AND POPS. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT THIS
LATER.

CURRENTLY...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIGGER CONVECTIVE THREAT IS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...2-5 PM...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...VICINITY TULSA AREA AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD. THESE WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...40-50 MPH.
THESE SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND OR AFTER 00Z...HENCE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SCATTERED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND
DRYLINE. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  38  47  29 /  80  70  40   0
FSM   75  48  50  31 /  60  90  40  10
MLC   76  41  46  30 /  60  80  20   0
BVO   78  39  46  25 /  80  30  50   0
FYV   71  39  43  26 /  60  90  50  10
BYV   72  39  42  26 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   74  41  46  28 /  60  90  40   0
MIO   75  37  44  26 /  70  80  50   0
F10   76  40  45  29 /  70  90  30   0
HHW   76  46  50  31 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...02







000
FXUS64 KTSA 131458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING SOME MINOR UPDATES TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. NO
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AND POPS. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT THIS
LATER.

CURRENTLY...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIGGER CONVECTIVE THREAT IS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...2-5 PM...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...VICINITY TULSA AREA AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD. THESE WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...40-50 MPH.
THESE SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND OR AFTER 00Z...HENCE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SCATTERED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND
DRYLINE. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  38  47  29 /  80  70  40   0
FSM   75  48  50  31 /  60  90  40  10
MLC   76  41  46  30 /  60  80  20   0
BVO   78  39  46  25 /  80  30  50   0
FYV   71  39  43  26 /  60  90  50  10
BYV   72  39  42  26 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   74  41  46  28 /  60  90  40   0
MIO   75  37  44  26 /  70  80  50   0
F10   75  40  45  29 /  70  90  30   0
HHW   76  46  50  31 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05








000
FXUS64 KTSA 131112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES... AFFECTING ALL SITES.
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... STRONG DAMAGING WINDS... AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN KS
THROUGH CENTRAL TX AS UPPER JET PRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EXPANDS THIS PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY / TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
THE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTWARD POTENTIAL
OF THE MIXING DRYLINE...WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO FOCUS THE FAVORED
TRIPLE POINT ZONE MORE SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADIC RISK
WITH THESE STORMS IS NON-ZERO...THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE
FROM LARGE HAIL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED ZONES OF DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
SEVERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG FRONT BEFORE THE UPDRAFTS ARE UNDERCUT. THE HIGHER
CONDITIONAL TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE DRYLINE AND TRACK EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LOW...THE
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE HIGH ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM
HODOGRAPHS VERIFY WHICH HAVE SUBSTANTIAL AND FAVORABLE CURVATURE
PROFILES. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERALL WILL BE HIGHER FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH A RAW DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES ALSO LIKELY TO BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK / NW AR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A LATE SEASON FREEZE TO OCCUR...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA POSSIBLY SEEING A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPS MODERATE FOR MID WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 130854
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN KS
THROUGH CENTRAL TX AS UPPER JET PRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE EXPANDS THIS PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY / TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR THE REGION.
THE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EASTWARD POTENTIAL
OF THE MIXING DRYLINE...WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO FOCUS THE FAVORED
TRIPLE POINT ZONE MORE SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADIC RISK
WITH THESE STORMS IS NON-ZERO...THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE
FROM LARGE HAIL WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAPE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED ZONES OF DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE
SEVERE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN ALONG OR JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRONG FRONT BEFORE THE UPDRAFTS ARE UNDERCUT. THE HIGHER
CONDITIONAL TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE DRYLINE AND TRACK EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY OF THESE STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LOW...THE
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE HIGH ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM
HODOGRAPHS VERIFY WHICH HAVE SUBSTANTIAL AND FAVORABLE CURVATURE
PROFILES. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERALL WILL BE HIGHER FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
WITH A RAW DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES ALSO LIKELY TO BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK / NW AR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A LATE SEASON FREEZE TO OCCUR...WITH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA POSSIBLY SEEING A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPS MODERATE FOR MID WEEK...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  38  47  29 /  80  70  40   0
FSM   75  48  50  31 /  60  90  40  10
MLC   76  41  46  30 /  40  80  20   0
BVO   77  39  46  25 /  80  30  50   0
FYV   71  39  43  26 /  60  90  50  10
BYV   72  39  42  26 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   74  41  46  28 /  50  90  40   0
MIO   74  37  44  26 /  70  80  50   0
F10   75  40  45  29 /  70  90  30   0
HHW   75  46  50  31 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







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