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000
FXUS64 KTSA 200751
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE BEFORE FOG QUICKLY LIFTS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. UPPER WAVE WILL
SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR FROM
THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  85  57 /  10  20  20  10
FSM   89  69  89  60 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   88  68  89  60 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   89  67  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
FYV   84  64  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   83  66  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   87  68  86  56 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   86  66  82  53 /  10  20  20  10
F10   87  68  87  58 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   88  68  90  64 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200751
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE BEFORE FOG QUICKLY LIFTS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. UPPER WAVE WILL
SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR FROM
THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  85  57 /  10  20  20  10
FSM   89  69  89  60 /  10  10  20  10
MLC   88  68  89  60 /  10  10  20  10
BVO   89  67  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
FYV   84  64  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   83  66  83  53 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   87  68  86  56 /  10  20  20  10
MIO   86  66  82  53 /  10  20  20  10
F10   87  68  87  58 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   88  68  90  64 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN TO A MILE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NE OK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NE OK/NW AR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 200449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN TO A MILE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NE OK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NE OK/NW AR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200226
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NE OK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NE OK/NW AR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   67  88  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   68  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  89  66  86 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  85  64  84 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   63  84  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   65  87  67  84 /  10  20  30  20
F10   68  87  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   69  89  68  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 200226
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NE OK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NE OK/NW AR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   67  88  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   68  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  89  66  86 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  85  64  84 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   63  84  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   65  87  67  84 /  10  20  30  20
F10   68  87  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   69  89  68  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 192053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...AS
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT
AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES ARE SLIM...THE WARMER WEATHER COULD ALSO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...INDICATING A MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION...DIRECTING THE JET
STREAM NORTHWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   67  88  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   68  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  89  66  86 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  85  64  84 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   63  84  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   65  87  67  84 /  10  20  30  20
F10   68  87  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   69  89  68  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 192053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...AS
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
TURNING TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT
AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES ARE SLIM...THE WARMER WEATHER COULD ALSO TRIGGER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...INDICATING A MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH...BRINGING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION...DIRECTING THE JET
STREAM NORTHWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   67  88  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   68  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   64  89  66  86 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  85  64  84 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   63  84  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   65  87  67  84 /  10  20  30  20
F10   68  87  69  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   69  89  68  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191807
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR BY 00Z. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST TIME/HEIGHT
PLOT DATA...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN WITH MOIST AIR NEAR THE GROUND COMBINING WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR VSBYS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...THUS INSOLATION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE IT FROM ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS MUCH
AT ALL WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  70  88 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   68  87  68  89 /  10  20  30  20
MLC   69  87  66  89 /  10  20  30  20
BVO   66  89  66  87 /  10  20  30  20
FYV   63  84  63  83 /  10  20  30  20
BYV   64  83  65  83 /  10  20  30  20
MKO   67  88  67  88 /  10  20  30  20
MIO   66  86  66  83 /  10  20  30  20
F10   69  87  68  88 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   68  89  67  90 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30







000
FXUS64 KTSA 191549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...THUS INSOLATION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE IT FROM ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS MUCH
AT ALL WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   83  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   86  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   85  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   78  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   85  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   83  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   84  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 191549
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
LAST NIGHT HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. WV IMAGERY AND MODEL TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW
DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...THUS INSOLATION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ERODE IT FROM ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS MUCH
AT ALL WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   83  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   86  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   85  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   78  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   85  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   83  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   84  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30






000
FXUS64 KTSA 191146
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUD LAYER RATHER THIN AND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z...BECOMING VFR ALL
STATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190812
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY HOWEVER OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND FRONT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.  OTHERWISE...
MILD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  69  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   85  68  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
MLC   85  69  87  66 /   0   0  20  20
BVO   87  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
FYV   82  63  84  63 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   81  64  83  65 /   0  10  20  20
MKO   86  67  88  67 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   84  66  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
F10   85  69  87  68 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   87  68  89  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 190445
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AT
THIS HOUR AND WILL SPREAD INTO KFSM BY THE VALID TIME. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL AREA
TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 190241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   60  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   62  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99









000
FXUS64 KTSA 190241
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA.
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NW ARKANSAS PER SATELLITE...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME
NE OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...DID
LOWER TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE KS BORDER BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND
TWEAKED SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   60  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   62  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99








000
FXUS64 KTSA 182033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   65  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   64  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 182033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
FORECAST AREA AND ANY REMNANT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FRIDAY THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TOPICAL
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS MUCH FURTHER WEST.

SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANTLY COOL DAYS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   67  87  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   65  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   62  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   61  82  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   66  87  67  87 /  10  10   0  20
MIO   64  86  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
F10   67  87  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   69  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181847
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
147 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MORNING PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED AND PUSHED OUT OF THE
CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
CONTINUES TO BE WELL WORKED OVER...ALLOWING FOR THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY COULD
REMAIN. WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD ALLOW FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG BUT INSTABILITY BEING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE ORIGINAL MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SEVERE CHANCES.

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS IN
CHECK OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPS RANGES FROM THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. WILL SEND
AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON POP/WX/SKY/TEMP GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181746
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. BVO LOOKS
TO HAVE THE GREATER CHANCE OF REPORTING PRECIP AMONG THE TAF
SITES AND WILL CARRY VCSH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO VFR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  40
FSM   67  86  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   68  87  69  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   67  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  60
FYV   63  83  65  85 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   62  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   68  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
MIO   67  86  68  85 /  10  10  10  40
F10   69  86  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
HHW   68  87  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  69  88  71 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   83  67  86  69 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   84  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   81  67  88  67 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   78  63  83  65 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   79  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   81  68  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   78  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   81  69  86  69 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181535
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAD
WEAKENED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTERACTING WITH UPGLIDE WINDS
AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA LEFTOVER FROM THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH OVER NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CLOUD COVER COULD TRY TO BREAK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S/80S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST
POPS/WX/TEMPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO TWEAKED
SKY/WIND GRIDS AS WELL BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  69  88  71 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   83  67  86  69 /  50  10  10  10
MLC   84  68  87  69 /  50  10  10  10
BVO   81  67  88  67 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   78  63  83  65 /  50  10  10  10
BYV   79  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   81  68  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
MIO   78  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   81  69  86  69 /  80  10  10  10
HHW   87  68  87  68 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 181136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST
SITES THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  71 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   86  67  86  69 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   88  68  87  69 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   87  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  70  10  10  10
BYV   80  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   88  68  86  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   84  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   88  69  86  69 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   88  68  87  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAXIMUM AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MORNING PER HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS
/WITH MINOR SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CORRECTIONS/ THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...THE FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LESSEN FROM EARLIER LEVELS. ALL MORNING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. UNLESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING
GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE
LESS FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF ODILE/S REMNANTS
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS WITH
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...STILL THINK THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEAR WATCHING. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS...LEAVING MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY AND LINGERING PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FEATURED THEREAFTER.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44...WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.

LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MID RANGE MODELS DIVERGING IN THE EXPECTED
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS WITH
MINOR TWEAKS IN A NUDGE TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  71 /  40  10  10  10
FSM   86  67  86  69 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   88  68  87  69 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   87  67  88  67 /  40  10  10  10
FYV   82  63  83  65 /  70  10  10  10
BYV   80  62  81  64 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   88  68  86  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIO   84  67  86  68 /  70  10  10  10
F10   88  69  86  69 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   88  68  87  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 180443
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPACT
THE KMLC TAF SITE THROUGH 07Z. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR ALL SITES EXPECT KMLC AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  20  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  20  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  20  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  10  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  20  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  60  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10








000
FXUS64 KTSA 180142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLAREMORE OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SLOWLY
DISSIPATES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE
STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS WILL COTINUE
TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.


&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 172331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 172053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171850
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL SEND AN AFTERNOON
UPDATE INCREASING POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ALSO TO
INCREASE TEMPS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A LACK OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS HELPED TEMPS
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....99







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171733
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GREATER PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL ADD
VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS TO XNA/FYV/FSM. ALSO...PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VIS/CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  69  89 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   68  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  10
MLC   71  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   67  87  67  88 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   65  83  64  84 /  60  40  10  10
BYV   64  80  64  82 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   68  86  67  86 /  20  40  10  10
MIO   67  84  66  85 /  60  40  10  10
F10   69  87  68  86 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 171517
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS STILL OBSERVING SOME
LOW CEILINGS/AREAS OF FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WAS BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.

PARTY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST MORNING
POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TO CLEAN UP ANY
EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 171140
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
640 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22






000
FXUS64 KTSA 170833
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER JET. MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE
BULK OF THIS NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDERS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING PATCHY BUT
OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PER SURFACE OBS...VISIBILITIES HAVE VARIED
WILDLY THIS MORNING AT ANY ONE LOCATION WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN THE BENTON AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LIKELY
TO TOUCH 90 DEGREES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT A BIGGER
SECTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO TOMORROW AS ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST AND A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI
AND ARKANSAS. A BRIEF DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVING INTO THE REGION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...MOST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL PLACE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18Z
SATURDAY AND 06Z SUNDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT COOL BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  88  69 /  10  30  30  10
FSM   86  68  85  67 /  20  40  40  10
MLC   88  71  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
BVO   90  67  87  67 /  10  40  30  10
FYV   83  65  83  64 /  30  60  40  10
BYV   82  64  80  64 /  50  60  40  10
MKO   87  68  86  67 /  10  20  40  10
MIO   85  67  84  66 /  50  60  40  10
F10   87  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   88  70  88  68 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22







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