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000
FXUS64 KTSA 121136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
536 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A back door cold front is expected to move through Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today...with winds becoming
northerly. A few low clouds could possibly reach into far
Northeast Oklahoma this morning...otherwise few to broken high
clouds should remain common through the majority of the TAF
period. VFR conditions should persist through the period for all
TAF locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  44  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  45  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  42  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  41  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  36  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  44  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  38  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  45  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  50  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 121136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
536 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A back door cold front is expected to move through Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today...with winds becoming
northerly. A few low clouds could possibly reach into far
Northeast Oklahoma this morning...otherwise few to broken high
clouds should remain common through the majority of the TAF
period. VFR conditions should persist through the period for all
TAF locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  44  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  45  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  42  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  41  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  36  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  44  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  38  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  45  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  50  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20





000
FXUS64 KTSA 121136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
536 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A back door cold front is expected to move through Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today...with winds becoming
northerly. A few low clouds could possibly reach into far
Northeast Oklahoma this morning...otherwise few to broken high
clouds should remain common through the majority of the TAF
period. VFR conditions should persist through the period for all
TAF locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  44  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  45  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  42  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  41  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  36  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  44  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  38  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  45  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  50  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




000
FXUS64 KTSA 120926
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  45  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  46  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  49  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  43  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  42  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  37  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  45  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  39  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  46  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  51  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 120926
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  45  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  46  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  49  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  43  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  42  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  37  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  45  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  39  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  46  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  51  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 120926
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  45  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  46  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  49  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  43  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  42  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  37  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  45  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  39  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  46  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  51  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 120527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1127 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Winds will increase out of the north on Friday in the wake of
a weather weather system.  Some high clouds will continue to
stream over the area with a few mid clouds possible.  There
is some chance that a few stratocumulus clouds could develop
on Friday...but if they develop they will remain scattered at
best.  VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Once again a quiet evening across E OK/NW AR. A wave is diving
southeast over the Midwest this evening. Since conditions in the
lower levels of the troposphere are dry and stable...the only
indication of this wave is the high clouds moving across the
region currently. A cold front will surge south tonight into
Friday in the wake of the system...so another cool but not
terrible day is in store for tomorrow.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KTSA 120216
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
816 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Once again a quiet evening across E OK/NW AR. A wave is diving
southeast over the Midwest this evening. Since conditions in the
lower levels of the troposphere are dry and stable...the only
indication of this wave is the high clouds moving across the
region currently. A cold front will surge south tonight into
Friday in the wake of the system...so another cool but not
terrible day is in store for tomorrow.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  58  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  49  19  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  51  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  49  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   32  54  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  47  15  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   34  55  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  65  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 112334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KTSA 112334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KTSA 112334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
534 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Another cold front will cross the region over the next 15 hours
with the wind picking up from the north tomorrow.  Otherwise
no significant weather is expected.  Some mid and high clouds
will continue to stream over the area...but VFR conditions will
prevail.  There is a chance for a few stratocumulus clouds to
develop tomorrow...but even if some form...a ceiling is not expected
to develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KTSA 112151
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the forecast area Friday
giving us a glancing blow of a very cold airmass that will settle
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area Sunday and Sunday night resulting in a
chance of rain. Temperatures may remain cold enough in the valleys
of northwest Arkansas for freezing rain, and adjacent parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be cold enough at the onset of
precipitation for a brief period of freezing rain. At this time,
ice accumulations do not look too significant, but this will need
to be monitored in the deeper valleys of northwest Arkansas where
the cold air will hang on the longest.

Once this system moves out, mild to warm air will overspread the
area for much of next week. By late next week, unseasonable
warmth appears likely, and would not be surprised to see the first
80 degree readings of the year show up before the end of the week
in parts of eastern Oklahoma.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  52  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   33  58  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  58  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   24  49  19  41 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  51  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  49  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   32  54  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   29  47  15  38 /   0   0   0   0
F10   34  55  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   37  65  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05

PLATE





000
FXUS64 KTSA 111646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1046 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
strengthen from the north during the last 3-6 hours of the valid
TAF period following a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 111646
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1046 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
strengthen from the north during the last 3-6 hours of the valid
TAF period following a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 111556
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




000
FXUS64 KTSA 111556
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 111556
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
956 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly winds will be gusty at times this morning following the
early morning cool frontal passage. Wind speeds are likely to
diminish during the afternoon hours, however. Temperatures will be
much cooler today in the wake of the front, except perhaps in
parts of far southeast Oklahoma. Most locations will still see
near to just above normal highs. Main change to the going forecast
has been to decrease afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees,
especially across areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders, with
cold advection likely to continue into early to mid afternoon.
Other weather elements appear on track except for tweaks according
to current trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 111123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
523 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 110955
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
355 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently passing through the area which will push
temps nearer seasonal normals. Near persistent conditions continue
on Friday ahead of a stronger cold front which will pass through
the area on Friday...however the noticeably colder temps will lag
the wind shift and felt more so over the weekend.

The cold sfc high will be quickly shifting eastward Sat night into
Sunday while a sfc low develops to our west ahead of a fast moving
wave. This feature has been shown for several days amongst all
guidance...however its strength and resultant precip amounts have
varied considerable within both respective model and run times
solutions. The eventual degree of interaction w/ the subtropical
jet stream which is is forecast to lift northward into the
southern states may prove the deciding factor in the eventual wave
strength. Nevertheless precip is likely to develop atop the
retreating cold and dry airmass allowing for efficient low level
wet bulb cooling. This forecast will trend colder for this
timeframe versus guidance based on this scenario.  Resultant
profiles support freezing rain and possibly sleet from E OK into
far NW AR Sunday through Sunday night. Aforementioned
uncertainties w/ the wave do effect forecast precip amounts yet
the zone along the retreating frontal zone will be most likely
for any heavier amounts.

A rapid and and substantial warm up continues to appear likely for
next week...and especially mid to late next week. Fire weather
conditions will likely again become a focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  33  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  35  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  32  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  24  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  27  53  20 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   49  29  51  18 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  32  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   48  27  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  33  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  37  65  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 110551
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1151 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A front will continue to cross the area over the next 6 to 10 hours.
This will resultin a windshift into the north...but no significant
weather.  Strong winds just above the surface ahead of the front
will result in low-level windshear for the next few hours until
the fast winds aloft exit the area.  VFR conditions will prevail
for the next 24-hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A surface low pressure...produced mainly by thermal rather than
dynamic processes...was centered over NE OK this evening. The low
will continue to shift south overnight into Thursday morning.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and will then shift to
a northerly direction on Thursday as the low shifts south. Since
the low level thermal ridge is getting suppressed to the south and
west of our area...highs will be considerably cooler than today
across E OK...and fairly similar to today across W AR.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak front will cross the area in the next 12 hours and result
in a wind shift to the north.  No significant weather is expected
with the front and VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KTSA 110243
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
843 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A surface low pressure...produced mainly by thermal rather than
dynamic processes...was centered over NE OK this evening. The low
will continue to shift south overnight into Thursday morning.
Winds will be light and variable overnight and will then shift to
a northerly direction on Thursday as the low shifts south. Since
the low level thermal ridge is getting suppressed to the south and
west of our area...highs will be considerably cooler than today
across E OK...and fairly similar to today across W AR.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak front will cross the area in the next 12 hours and result
in a wind shift to the north.  No significant weather is expected
with the front and VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   34  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   38  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  47  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   35  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  47  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  55  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 102343
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
543 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak front will cross the area in the next 12 hours and result
in a wind shift to the north.  No significant weather is expected
with the front and VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KTSA 102343
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
543 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A weak front will cross the area in the next 12 hours and result
in a wind shift to the north.  No significant weather is expected
with the front and VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KTSA 102107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
307 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions teetering on the edge of critical
thresholds in some locations west of U.S. Highway 75 this
afternoon, but so far the wind speeds have remained less than 20
mph with a few gusts pushing 25 mph. Basically, about as close as
you can get to Red Flag criteria without actually meeting it with
temps 65-70 and RH 20-25%. At this time we do not anticipate any
upgrade from Fire Wx Watch to Red Flag Warning as no significant
increase in wind speeds is anticipated, though spread rates still
require extreme caution.

A weak cold front will push through later tonight with a shift to
north winds for Thursday, resulting in a modest cool down to
afternoon highs near normal. Temps will then rebound some on
Friday ahead of a much stronger Canadian cold front, which will
move into northern areas Friday afternoon and the rest of the area
Friday night. The brunt of the coldest air will remain to our
northeast, however as warm advection kicks in late Saturday and
early Sunday, expect light precip to develop. Expected thermal
profiles support some winter precip across far northeast OK and
northwest AR through Sunday morning before airmass warms enough
for all rain by afternoon. No significant impacts are expected at
this time, but there will be a window of opportunity for some
light icing roughly FSM-BVO north. Better forcing arrives later
Sunday across southern areas, thus the best chance of significant
rainfall looks to be south of I40 Sunday afternoon and evening.

Still appears a return to much above normal temps will take place
next week upper ridge builds across the central U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   34  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   38  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  50  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   32  53  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   30  47  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   35  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  47  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   36  55  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14





000
FXUS64 KTSA 101918
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
118 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The fire weather situation remains fairly marginal as far as any
upgrade of our current Fire Weather Watch is concerned so the plan
is to let the Watch ride. Dew points have increased substantially
from this morning, as have temperatures, and both continue to
increase early this afternoon. Current minimum relative humidities
are near 30 percent to the west of Tulsa, and it is likely that
the overall minimum humidities for this afternoon will be very
near 25 percent at a few locations, with corresponding highs near
the upgrade threshold of 65 degrees. The morning update has
matched what has occurred, temperature and dew point wise, so far
fairly well so no further update to the public products will be
forthcoming at this time. However, winds at the sites that are
nearest to warning criteria for temperatures and humidities have
not consistently been at or above the wind speed criterion,
reinforcing that this is a very marginal situation from a warning
standpoint. We will continue to monitor the observations and
their trends, and remain prepared for any localized upgrades if
they become necessary, even though that potential continues to
wane.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will develop and continue through the
afternoon, diminishing around 00Z. A shift to north to northeast
winds will occur late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a weak
front pushes through the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

.UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 101653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1053 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds
gusting 20 to 25 mph will develop and continue through the
afternoon, diminishing around 00Z. A shift to north to northeast
winds will occur late tonight and into tomorrow morning as a weak
front pushes through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 101546
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
946 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather potential is once again the lone immediate
forecast concern, with conditions likely to approach marginal red
flag conditions for a short time this afternoon. With the surface
ridge axis pushing east of the forecast area, low level winds
will increase through the late morning and early afternoon,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Gusts near 25 mph
should occur for a couple of hours this afternoon before subsiding
with sunset. Main limiting factor with respect to fire weather is
how low the relative humidities will actually get this afternoon.
Existing airmass remains very dry, with dew points currently in
the teens across the entire forecast area. Short term models
continue to show some increase in the dew points through the day
with the onset of stronger southerly winds, although the most
recent observational and model data indicate this increase may be
slower than earlier thought. The big change to the going forecast
was to slow this increase through late morning and early
afternoon. The changes to the dew point forecast did not change
the earlier forecast minimum relative humidities, which continue
to be very near the 25 percent threshold for a Red Flag Warning.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch going for now, but expect to
make a decision on that headline in the next 2 to 3 hours,
depending on observational trends. Current updates are already
out, but at least one additional update will occur around noon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 101121
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CIGS this morning mainly across the NW AR sites. S-SW SFC winds
will increase today...with gusts of 20-25kts at all sites after 18z.
Winds will relax after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 101002
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
402 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will again be the focus today. Strong low
level warm advection will overspread the region and combine with
southwesterly winds and clear skies to allow afternoon temps to
warm rapidly. Satellite derived precip water data currently place
a plume of slightly higher moisture over the region and short term
guidance is consistent in not mixing afternoon dewpoints
drastically lower. This...along with an a strong west to east
gradient in afternoon temps...raises uncertainty in the afternoon
humidity forecast. Nevertheless expected conditions will support a
heightened fire weather concern and a watch has been posted
accordingly which will be refined with forecasts through the day.

A cold front will slowly push through the area late tonight into
Thursday aiding to push temps nearer seasonal normals. A brief
moderation on Friday ahead of stronger cold front which will push
weekend temperatures below normal. All frontal passages will
remain dry.

The next chance of precip arrives on Sunday-Sunday night with
increasing agreement on light precip spreading across the area.
Initial precip is likely to fall into a very dry airmass with wet
bulb effects allow a change over to frozen precip. This looks most
likely across far NE OK into far NW AR. This type of detail in low
level temps will continue to be refined...however any amounts
continue to look rather light with more robust precip focuses
further south and east. Temperatures quickly moderate with above
normal temperatures likely for the first part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  31  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  34  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  37  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  29  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  28  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   63  34  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   55  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
F10   64  35  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  37  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 100531
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1131 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light and variable overnight...then increase from
the south Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30





000
FXUS64 KTSA 100227
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
827 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure was centered between Wichita and Manhattan
KS this evening...and will continue to move southeast in our
direction tonight. Winds will continue to decrease with time and
should provide an ample environment given only broken cirrus to
radiate out by morning...especially over NW AR. Winds will turn
around to the south and southwest on Wednesday as the ridge slides
east. The highly amplified positive PNA pattern over the CONUS
will deamplify a bit through the end of the week...and the
increase in downslope flow will allow the low level thermal ridge
to expand east over the region. Thus...expect highs 15 to 20
degrees warmer than today for your Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /   0  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18




000
FXUS64 KTSA 092320
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
520 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Gusty northwest winds will relax over the next few hours and
eventually become light and variable later tonight. Expect
south winds to kick up mid-late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   25  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   28  63  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  52  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   20  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   25  62  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   21  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   29  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...18





000
FXUS64 KTSA 092033
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
233 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong/gusty winds at 30-35 mph, coupled with a very dry air-mass,
has lead to an elevated fire danger threat this afternoon. Dew-
points are currently in the single digits across much of Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with relative humidity values in
the 20-25 percent range. Any fires that do develop will likely
spread quickly. A red flag warning remains in effect for Northwest
Arkansas through 600 pm. Fire weather conditions will begin to
improve this evening as winds decrease and RH values start to
recover.

Upper low currently over the Great Lakes region will begin to
lift northeast into Canada on Wednesday. A quick warm up is
expected into Wednesday afternoon as low level winds become more
westerly. Next cold front will move through Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
another secondary back door cold front and reinforcing shot of
colder air friday night into Saturday.

Low precipitation chances will return by Sunday as fast moving
upper wave moves out of the Northern Rockies and into the Central
plains. Moisture return ahead of system will remain limited but
scattered showers will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected into the early part of next
week with temperatures running a few degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   25  63  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   24  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   27  63  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  65  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   20  51  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   19  50  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   24  62  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   20  54  28  45 /  10  10   0   0
F10   27  64  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   28  62  37  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....12





000
FXUS64 KTSA 091653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1053 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty NW winds will
subside this evening, with a shift to a southerly direction by mid
to late morning tomorrow as a surface ridge axis passes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 091536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22





000
FXUS64 KTSA 091536
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




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