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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06







000
FXUS64 KTSA 301057
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
12Z SATURDAY AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE IS
TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300947
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL
NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY FOR LATE JANUARY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER THAN THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE RAIN WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD AREA WIDE AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY BUT A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THUS IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. A FEW WET MUSHY SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF
ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS BY THAT TIME BUT NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 UNTIL THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. A WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP JUST BEYOND
THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO
THICKENING CLOUD COVER BUT STAYED CLOSE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
VALUES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  36  46  41 /   0  20  60  90
FSM   54  34  49  41 /   0   0  30  80
MLC   53  36  48  43 /   0  10  40  90
BVO   50  34  45  40 /   0  20  60  90
FYV   52  32  49  40 /   0   0  30  80
BYV   51  31  48  40 /   0   0  30  80
MKO   52  36  47  41 /   0  10  40  90
MIO   50  34  46  40 /   0  10  60  90
F10   52  36  47  42 /   0  10  50  90
HHW   55  36  50  43 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 300513
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1113 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 300326
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUD TO LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  48  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  49  35  47 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   29  49  35  47 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   22  46  33  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  49  32  43 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   27  42  31  41 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   25  49  33  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   23  45  33  41 /   0   0  10  60
F10   30  48  35  46 /   0   0  20  70
HHW   33  53  35  46 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07








000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KTSA 292307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SFC WINDS WILL RELAX VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23






000
FXUS64 KTSA 292219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  37  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   31  52  37  47 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   22  48  34  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  51  33  43 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   28  47  32  41 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   28  50  35  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   25  47  34  42 /   0   0  20  50
HHW   33  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 292219
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING... BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  37  45 /   0   0  20  60
FSM   31  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  20
MLC   31  52  37  47 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   22  48  34  44 /   0   0  30  70
FYV   27  51  33  43 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   28  47  32  41 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   28  50  35  46 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   25  47  34  42 /   0   0  20  50
HHW   33  54  36  47 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOUT 2000-3500 FT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
ALL SITES...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N OVERNIGHT...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...
EXPECT A TURN TO SE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KTSA 291730
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOUT 2000-3500 FT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN/DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR HIGH CLOUDS AT
ALL SITES...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WINDS AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT N OVERNIGHT...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...
EXPECT A TURN TO SE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KTSA 291628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1028 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S ALREADY AT HUGO. THE STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH SO ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL BE OFFSET BY THIS COLD ADVECTION... BUT MAX TEMPERATURES STILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE
UPDATED TO SKY COVER WITH THE STRATUS DECK HAVING MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   52  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   48  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   50  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   63  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KTSA 290914
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   55  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   53  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   49  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10   53  29  49  35 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   59  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290914
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A JAY TO OKEMAH LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT OF YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
MID-WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE OVERTAKING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX ENTERS THE
PICTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN...
SNOW...SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST WAS MADE USING A BLEND
OF MODELS THAT WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AND HANGS ON THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY BE MINOR GIVEN
THE RECENT WARM SPELL AND THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENT.

MONDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  27  48  35 /   0   0   0  20
FSM   57  30  55  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   55  30  52  35 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   53  21  48  33 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   50  26  51  32 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  27  47  31 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  27  50  33 /   0   0   0  20
MIO   49  24  47  33 /   0   0   0  10
F10   53  29  49  35 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   59  32  54  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD ACROSS FAR NW AR AROUND MID
DAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL W/ WINDS DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT ON SCHEDULE/FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL
GRID CHANGES.  HIGH OF 80 DEGREES TODAY FOR TULSA
ONLY THIRD TIME IN JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 290518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY SPREAD ACROSS FAR NW AR AROUND MID
DAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL W/ WINDS DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT ON SCHEDULE/FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL
GRID CHANGES.  HIGH OF 80 DEGREES TODAY FOR TULSA
ONLY THIRD TIME IN JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290348
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT ON SCHEDULE/FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL
GRID CHANGES.  HIGH OF 80 DEGREES TODAY FOR TULSA
ONLY THIRD TIME IN JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 290348
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT ON SCHEDULE/FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL
GRID CHANGES.  HIGH OF 80 DEGREES TODAY FOR TULSA
ONLY THIRD TIME IN JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282331
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07







000
FXUS64 KTSA 282156
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281724
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY AND
LIKELY BEYOND THAT. HOWEVER SOME DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD AT
LEAST BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT THIS
TIME REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AFTER 12Z
THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY SHAPING UP WITH TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 18C AT
900MB ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A STRONG
SW WIND AT THAT LEVEL WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING TO A BETTER DEPTH
AND ADD A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE THE NORM. DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW
WINDS. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING CONFIGURED AS IS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND AND RH LEVELS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT SEND AN UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 281724
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY AND
LIKELY BEYOND THAT. HOWEVER SOME DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD AT
LEAST BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT THIS
TIME REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AFTER 12Z
THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY SHAPING UP WITH TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 18C AT
900MB ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A STRONG
SW WIND AT THAT LEVEL WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING TO A BETTER DEPTH
AND ADD A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE THE NORM. DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW
WINDS. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING CONFIGURED AS IS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND AND RH LEVELS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT SEND AN UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 281627
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY SHAPING UP WITH TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 18C AT
900MB ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A STRONG
SW WIND AT THAT LEVEL WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING TO A BETTER DEPTH
AND ADD A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE THE NORM. DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW
WINDS. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING CONFIGURED AS IS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND AND RH LEVELS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT SEND AN UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16









000
FXUS64 KTSA 281627
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY SHAPING UP WITH TEMPS AGAIN RUNNING AROUND 18C AT
900MB ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING. DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE A STRONG
SW WIND AT THAT LEVEL WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING TO A BETTER DEPTH
AND ADD A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC WIND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NE OKLAHOMA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE THE NORM. DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SSW
WINDS. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING CONFIGURED AS IS
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND AND RH LEVELS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT SEND AN UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16








000
FXUS64 KTSA 281135
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18






000
FXUS64 KTSA 281135
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280909
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
309 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE ADDED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STILL BE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION DRY AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW SURGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE
THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE
THE MOISTURE EXITS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  43  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  45  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  48  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  37  54  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  42  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   70  42  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  43  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  41  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  44  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  46  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....10






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280537
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT KBVO TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280537
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT KBVO TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  78  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  74  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  76  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  78  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  70  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  75  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  77  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  74  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  78  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  74  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  76  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  78  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  70  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  75  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  77  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  74  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 280344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  78  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  74  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  76  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  78  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  70  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  75  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  77  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  74  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21







000
FXUS64 KTSA 280344
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE WITHIN COUNTY TEMPERATURE RANGE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND/NO WIND.  ZFP MIN TEMP OUTPUT MERELY A COUNTY MEAN.

FIRE CONDITION NEAR/MAY EXCEED RED FLAG THRESHOLD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MOST VULNERABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAY SEE A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTION FORECAST AREA.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  78  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  74  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   45  76  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  78  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  70  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  75  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   40  73  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  77  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  74  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KFSM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05






000
FXUS64 KTSA 272201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  77  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  73  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  75  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  77  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  69  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  68  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  74  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  72  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  76  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16







000
FXUS64 KTSA 272201
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING LATE FRIDAY...AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY REACHING WELL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE SPREAD THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THUS
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO WINSLOW. MINIMAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  77  43  53 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  73  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  75  47  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   40  77  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  69  40  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  68  43  50 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  74  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  72  41  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  76  44  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16






000
FXUS64 KTSA 271710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14








000
FXUS64 KTSA 271710
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...14









000
FXUS64 KTSA 271617
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16









000
FXUS64 KTSA 271617
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16








000
FXUS64 KTSA 271617
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16









000
FXUS64 KTSA 271617
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WITH
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID WINTER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP. 12Z OUN
SOUNDING VERY WARM JUST ABOVE THE SFC WITH 900MB TEMPS NEAR 16C...
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING
WORKING AGAINST US TODAY WILL BE A LIGHT SE WIND COMPONENT WHICH
IS NOT OPTIMAL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD BE
ATTAINED WITH MID OR EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S WEST OF TULSA. TUL
RECORD HIGH OF 74 FOR TODAY LIKELY IN JEOPARDY. UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SAME WILL BE TRUE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SURGES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MAY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS IT BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE TURNING TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMING
POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REAL COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION IS
DEPARTING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING HEAVIER WITH THE PRECIP AMOUNTS
AS A GOOD SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS INFUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BECOME CLEARER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORMAL SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  46  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  37  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  39  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   71  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  41  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....16








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