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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021647
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING MORE STABLE
WITH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS FROM A POSITION
NORTH OF OUR AREA TO ONE THAT IS MORE TYPICALLY AMPLIFIED EAST OF
OUR AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS THE BRISK EASTERLY FLOW IS TURNING INTO AN
INCREASING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH.
FRIDAY WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE NEW FLOW REGIME SETS
UP...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE WILL BE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS...NOT THE STRONG
MESOCYCLONES OF TUESDAY. WE TWEAKED THE CURRENT FORECAST TO PUSH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LOWER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30-45
KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOT AS MANY STORMS AROUND TODAY...OTHERWISE ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENE ACROSS SEAZ EARLY THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH NO RETURNS EVIDENT ON KEMX
RADAR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PUSHING SWD INTO THIS CWA FROM THE DECAYING
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NRN AZ...AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR
PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. 02/09Z SFC PLOTS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FROM ERN NEVADA TO ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
MEANS A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER AZ FROM AN ELY
DIRECTION TO A SLY DIRECTION. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW
ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKENING STORM
LEVEL FLOW.

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING TODAY TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR STORMS IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON AND
ALSO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS SETUP WILL FEED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE WITH SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N/126W...MOVES
NWD AND CONSOLIDATES OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT EWD OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL FEED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO AZ...CAUSING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS LULL...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THESE
DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A 100 OR TWO...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S EACH MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 021647
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TODAY...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS TEMPORARILY BECOMING MORE STABLE
WITH A MUCH WEAKER FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS REORIENTS FROM A POSITION
NORTH OF OUR AREA TO ONE THAT IS MORE TYPICALLY AMPLIFIED EAST OF
OUR AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS THE BRISK EASTERLY FLOW IS TURNING INTO AN
INCREASING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH.
FRIDAY WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT AS THE NEW FLOW REGIME SETS
UP...THEN INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE WILL BE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS...NOT THE STRONG
MESOCYCLONES OF TUESDAY. WE TWEAKED THE CURRENT FORECAST TO PUSH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EVEN LOWER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 30-45
KTS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOT AS MANY STORMS AROUND TODAY...OTHERWISE ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENE ACROSS SEAZ EARLY THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH NO RETURNS EVIDENT ON KEMX
RADAR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PUSHING SWD INTO THIS CWA FROM THE DECAYING
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NRN AZ...AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR
PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. 02/09Z SFC PLOTS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FROM ERN NEVADA TO ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
MEANS A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER AZ FROM AN ELY
DIRECTION TO A SLY DIRECTION. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW
ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKENING STORM
LEVEL FLOW.

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING TODAY TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR STORMS IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON AND
ALSO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS SETUP WILL FEED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE WITH SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N/126W...MOVES
NWD AND CONSOLIDATES OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT EWD OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL FEED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO AZ...CAUSING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS LULL...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THESE
DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A 100 OR TWO...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S EACH MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENE ACROSS SEAZ EARLY THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH NO RETURNS EVIDENT ON KEMX RADAR. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PUSHING SWD INTO THIS CWA FROM THE DECAYING
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NRN AZ...AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR
PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. 02/09Z SFC PLOTS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FROM ERN NEVADA TO ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
MEANS A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER AZ FROM AN ELY
DIRECTION TO A SLY DIRECTION. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW
ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKENING STORM
LEVEL FLOW.

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING TODAY TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR STORMS IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON AND
ALSO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS SETUP WILL FEED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE WITH
SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N/126W...MOVES
NWD AND CONSOLIDATES OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT EWD OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL FEED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO AZ...CAUSING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS LULL...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THESE
DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A 100 OR TWO...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
SCTD AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND 12KFT AGL OTRW CLR THRU 02/17Z. BTWN
02/17Z AND 03/03Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
AND MVFR CONDS NR STRONGEST STORMS. SFC WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12
KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NW-SE ORIENTED VLYS
WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A DIFFERENT SCENE ACROSS SEAZ EARLY THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH NO RETURNS EVIDENT ON KEMX RADAR. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS PUSHING SWD INTO THIS CWA FROM THE DECAYING
COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NRN AZ...AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR
PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. 02/09Z SFC PLOTS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FROM ERN NEVADA TO ERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
MEANS A TRANSITION IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER AZ FROM AN ELY
DIRECTION TO A SLY DIRECTION. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW
ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKENING STORM
LEVEL FLOW.

CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING TODAY TO BE A DOWN DAY FOR STORMS IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH TO EAST OF TUCSON AND
ALSO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SLY FLOW
DEEPENS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS SETUP WILL FEED
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE WITH
SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY BECOME SWLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N/126W...MOVES
NWD AND CONSOLIDATES OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FLATTENS OUT EWD OVER THE CONUS. THIS WILL FEED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR INTO AZ...CAUSING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS LULL...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT THESE
DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A 100 OR TWO...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
SCTD AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND 12KFT AGL OTRW CLR THRU 02/17Z. BTWN
02/17Z AND 03/03Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
AND MVFR CONDS NR STRONGEST STORMS. SFC WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12
KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NW-SE ORIENTED VLYS
WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 020413
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC
FROM AROUND THE STATE SHOWS A LARGE STORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE RIM AND BETWEEN
FLAGSTAFF AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND MINUS 71 TO 77 DEGS CELSIUS. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
MARCHING WEST TOWARD THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

CLOSER TO HOME...I ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 7 PM
MST THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
MY FORECAST AREA. WE GOT TO A GOOD START IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINERS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BUT AS THE STORM ANVILS
CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...IT QUICKLY SHUT US DOWN. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL A
THREAT AFTER THAT TIME...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTION BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN OUTFLOWS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS LATER TONIGHT.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 96 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM
TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL ADJUST
THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONGOING TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND MOSTLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 020413
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW OVER ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC
FROM AROUND THE STATE SHOWS A LARGE STORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE RIM AND BETWEEN
FLAGSTAFF AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND MINUS 71 TO 77 DEGS CELSIUS. RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
MARCHING WEST TOWARD THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

CLOSER TO HOME...I ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 7 PM
MST THIS EVENING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
MY FORECAST AREA. WE GOT TO A GOOD START IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINERS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES...BUT AS THE STORM ANVILS
CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...IT QUICKLY SHUT US DOWN. I KEPT SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL A
THREAT AFTER THAT TIME...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTION BOTH TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN OUTFLOWS HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS LATER TONIGHT.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 96 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM
TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL ADJUST
THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONGOING TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
ABOVE 12K FT AGL AND MOSTLY FEW TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 012122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORMAL CONVECTION INITIATION TIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AS EXPECTED. THE STEERING
LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING TO GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS WELL WITH A
MODERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
FROM EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE COUNTY. WE MAY STRUGGLE IN TUCSON METRO WITH THE PRECEDING ANVIL
SHUTTING DOWN SURFACE HEATING AND INITIAL OUTFLOW REDUCING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHOUT INITIATING STORMS.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 012122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORMAL CONVECTION INITIATION TIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AS EXPECTED. THE STEERING
LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING TO GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS WELL WITH A
MODERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
FROM EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE COUNTY. WE MAY STRUGGLE IN TUCSON METRO WITH THE PRECEDING ANVIL
SHUTTING DOWN SURFACE HEATING AND INITIAL OUTFLOW REDUCING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHOUT INITIATING STORMS.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THE PREVIOUS 18 HOURS OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO START COOKING UP
STORMS EARLIER TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ISN`T QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY RESPECTABLE FOR THESE PARTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH MODIFIED MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AROUND 1400 TO 1700 J/KG. THE FLOW IS STILL RATHER BRISK ABOUT
750 MB AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR
FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW. FOR TODAY THAT MEANS EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT LESS
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE SWEET SPOT IS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
FOR CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR AN INCREASING TREND OF PUSHING OUTFLOWS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF EAST. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THIS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA
IMPINGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW
ORIENTED JET WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN
FACT...THE GFS/NAM LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
NEARING THE WRN AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THE PREVIOUS 18 HOURS OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO START COOKING UP
STORMS EARLIER TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ISN`T QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY RESPECTABLE FOR THESE PARTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH MODIFIED MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AROUND 1400 TO 1700 J/KG. THE FLOW IS STILL RATHER BRISK ABOUT
750 MB AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR
FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW. FOR TODAY THAT MEANS EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT LESS
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE SWEET SPOT IS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
FOR CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR AN INCREASING TREND OF PUSHING OUTFLOWS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF EAST. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THIS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA
IMPINGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW
ORIENTED JET WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN
FACT...THE GFS/NAM LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
NEARING THE WRN AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEBRIS CLOUD FROM THE PREVIOUS 18 HOURS OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING GOOD HEATING TO START COOKING UP
STORMS EARLIER TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ISN`T QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY BUT STILL VERY RESPECTABLE FOR THESE PARTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH MODIFIED MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE AROUND 1400 TO 1700 J/KG. THE FLOW IS STILL RATHER BRISK ABOUT
750 MB AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL START TO CHANGE LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH OUR
FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW. FOR TODAY THAT MEANS EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION BUT LESS
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE SWEET SPOT IS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
FOR CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR AN INCREASING TREND OF PUSHING OUTFLOWS FROM THE SOUTH
INSTEAD OF EAST. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THIS.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA
IMPINGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW
ORIENTED JET WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN
FACT...THE GFS/NAM LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
NEARING THE WRN AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE AZ ON TUESDAY
WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...THE LARGEST OF
WHICH WERE GOLF BALL SIZE. KEMX WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO ROLL WESTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR ESTIMATES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH TOTALS SINCE 30/18Z
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND A FEW SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA IMPINGED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW ORIENTED JET
WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM
LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES NEARING THE WRN
AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY THRU 02/12Z. DEBRIS
CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCTD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE AZ ON TUESDAY
WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...THE LARGEST OF
WHICH WERE GOLF BALL SIZE. KEMX WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO ROLL WESTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR ESTIMATES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH TOTALS SINCE 30/18Z
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND A FEW SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA IMPINGED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW ORIENTED JET
WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM
LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES NEARING THE WRN
AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY THRU 02/12Z. DEBRIS
CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCTD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE AZ ON TUESDAY
WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...THE LARGEST OF
WHICH WERE GOLF BALL SIZE. KEMX WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO ROLL WESTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR ESTIMATES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH TOTALS SINCE 30/18Z
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND A FEW SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA IMPINGED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW ORIENTED JET
WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM
LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES NEARING THE WRN
AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY THRU 02/12Z. DEBRIS
CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCTD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE AZ ON TUESDAY
WITH MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...THE LARGEST OF
WHICH WERE GOLF BALL SIZE. KEMX WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO ROLL WESTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS HOUR...ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR ESTIMATES
ACROSS THE AREA SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH TOTALS SINCE 30/18Z
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND A FEW SPOTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS WRN AZ/NRN BAJA CA IMPINGED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 25N/123W. THIS SETUP HAS CREATED A SE/NW ORIENTED JET
WHICH IS FUNNELING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IN FACT...THE GFS/NAM
LAYER PWAT IS SHOWING VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES NEARING THE WRN
AZ/MEXICO BORDER LATER ON THIS MORNING.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION OCCURRED TODAY. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR/RUC ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER AROUND 01/19Z AND GRADUALLY
FILLING IN TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM/RUC MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J OF CAPE AT THE SAME TIME WITH FAIRLY LITTLE CIN...SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR STORMS TO GET GOING TODAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. STEERING FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO WILL NEED TO BE
MORE AWARE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO
UTAH...CREATING A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE
PATTERNS TEND TO EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA.
AS SUCH...IT SEEMS THAT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE CONDITIONS WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 TO
24 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT MINOR TWEAKS WILL OCCUR WITH EACH
FORECAST PACKAGE.

LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A REDUCTION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MORE SWLY FLOW IMPACTS
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
ISOLD TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY THRU 02/12Z. DEBRIS
CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BECOMING SCTD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA AFT 02/19Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 010438
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 CONTINUES FOR PINAL AND
PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

STRONGEST CELLS CURRENTLY ON RADAR ARE NEAR GREEN VALLEY AND ARE
STRADDLING THE PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 945 PM MST. SHOWERS THAT
ARE HEADING WEST OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION HAVE BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.

ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY COVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...EXCLUDING THE
TUCSON METRO...ALL OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COCHISE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH...ESPECIALLY FROM AMADO
TO MADERA CANYON TO NORTH OF SONOITA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE T.O. NATION NEAR KITT PEAK.

INHERITED POP FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AS
WELL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THAT SAID...DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS NEED SOME
WORK...SINCE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY.
WILL TWEAK THESE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RECENT TRENDS.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN 4-
7K FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSRA. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO
WESTERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW
STILL FAVORS SOLID CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY
IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER
SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 010438
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 CONTINUES FOR PINAL AND
PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

STRONGEST CELLS CURRENTLY ON RADAR ARE NEAR GREEN VALLEY AND ARE
STRADDLING THE PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 945 PM MST. SHOWERS THAT
ARE HEADING WEST OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION HAVE BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.

ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY COVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...EXCLUDING THE
TUCSON METRO...ALL OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COCHISE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH...ESPECIALLY FROM AMADO
TO MADERA CANYON TO NORTH OF SONOITA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE T.O. NATION NEAR KITT PEAK.

INHERITED POP FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AS
WELL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THAT SAID...DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS NEED SOME
WORK...SINCE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY.
WILL TWEAK THESE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RECENT TRENDS.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN 4-
7K FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSRA. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO
WESTERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW
STILL FAVORS SOLID CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY
IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER
SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 302125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE WRAPPING IN
FROM WEST TEXAS KEYING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A RAPIDLY RECOVERING ATMOSPHERE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES WITH
A QUICK REWORK OF CONDITIONS BELOW H5. AS EXPECTED WE`VE HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...JUST ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING WE`RE
GETTING 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
750MB AND SOLID SHEAR FOR OUR AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END UP WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR VALLEY
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WET MICROBURST AND ORGANIZED OUTFLOW
CONCERNS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND...HAIL...RELATIVELY BRIEF BUT
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 22Z TO 06Z. SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251 WITH
WATCH PROBABILITY AT 40 PERCENT.

AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO WESTERN DESERTS
OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW STILL FAVORS SOLID
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE
EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 302125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE WRAPPING IN
FROM WEST TEXAS KEYING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A RAPIDLY RECOVERING ATMOSPHERE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES WITH
A QUICK REWORK OF CONDITIONS BELOW H5. AS EXPECTED WE`VE HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...JUST ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING WE`RE
GETTING 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
750MB AND SOLID SHEAR FOR OUR AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END UP WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR VALLEY
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WET MICROBURST AND ORGANIZED OUTFLOW
CONCERNS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND...HAIL...RELATIVELY BRIEF BUT
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 22Z TO 06Z. SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251 WITH
WATCH PROBABILITY AT 40 PERCENT.

AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO WESTERN DESERTS
OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW STILL FAVORS SOLID
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE
EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 301916 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

...UPDATED FIRST PERIOD DISCUSSION...

&&

.DISCUSSION...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A RAPIDLY RECOVERING
ATMOSPHERE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO
1.3 INCHES WITH A QUICK REWORK OF CONDITIONS BELOW H5. SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO DELAY
ONSET OF CONVECTION AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
WE`RE GETTING 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
ABOVE 750MB AND SOLID SHEAR FOR OUR AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL
MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END UP WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR
VALLEY DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WET MICROBURST AND ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW CONCERNS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND...HAIL...RELATIVELY BRIEF
BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 22Z TO 06Z. WE WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE
SHORTLY TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AFTER 22Z.

FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION...WE HAD AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA NOW EXITING TO THE WEST BUT STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH-
UP. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT...COMBINED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER...WE MAY BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS UNUSUALLY BRISK FROM H6 ALL THE WAY INTO UPPER
LEVELS WITH 25 TO 50 KTS OF FLOW DEPENDING ON LEVEL. THIS WILL TEND
TO RESET INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WHILE
ALSO SERVING TO CLEAR THE DEBRIS CLOUD QUICKER...ALLOWING BETTER
SOLAR INSOLATION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE`RE ALSO
SEEING A WEAK EASTERLY INFLECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA / FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REMARKABLE...BUT MOVEMENT
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS A CONCERN ALONG WITH BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
MOVING INTO A RECONSOLIDATING H7 THETA-E AXIS WEST OF TUCSON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE MADE A PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENT THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW INTO SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATER.

OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE
SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/17Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 301916 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

...UPDATED FIRST PERIOD DISCUSSION...

&&

.DISCUSSION...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A RAPIDLY RECOVERING
ATMOSPHERE FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO
1.3 INCHES WITH A QUICK REWORK OF CONDITIONS BELOW H5. SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO DELAY
ONSET OF CONVECTION AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
WE`RE GETTING 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
ABOVE 750MB AND SOLID SHEAR FOR OUR AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL
MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END UP WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR
VALLEY DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WET MICROBURST AND ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW CONCERNS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND...HAIL...RELATIVELY BRIEF
BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 22Z TO 06Z. WE WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE
SHORTLY TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AFTER 22Z.

FROM THE MORNING DISCUSSION...WE HAD AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA NOW EXITING TO THE WEST BUT STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER. SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH-
UP. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE THAT...COMBINED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER...WE MAY BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS UNUSUALLY BRISK FROM H6 ALL THE WAY INTO UPPER
LEVELS WITH 25 TO 50 KTS OF FLOW DEPENDING ON LEVEL. THIS WILL TEND
TO RESET INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WHILE
ALSO SERVING TO CLEAR THE DEBRIS CLOUD QUICKER...ALLOWING BETTER
SOLAR INSOLATION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE`RE ALSO
SEEING A WEAK EASTERLY INFLECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA / FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REMARKABLE...BUT MOVEMENT
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS A CONCERN ALONG WITH BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
MOVING INTO A RECONSOLIDATING H7 THETA-E AXIS WEST OF TUCSON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE MADE A PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENT THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW INTO SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATER.

OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE
SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/17Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 301616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE HAD AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA NOW EXITING TO THE WEST BUT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH-UP. INITIAL
THOUGHTS WERE THAT...COMBINED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...WE MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW IS UNUSUALLY BRISK FROM H6 ALL THE WAY INTO UPPER LEVELS WITH
25 TO 50 KTS OF FLOW DEPENDING ON LEVEL. THIS WILL TEND TO RESET
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO CLEAR THE DEBRIS CLOUD QUICKER...ALLOWING BETTER SOLAR
INSOLATION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE`RE ALSO SEEING A
WEAK EASTERLY INFLECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA / FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REMARKABLE...BUT MOVEMENT
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS A CONCERN ALONG WITH BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
MOVING INTO A RECONSOLIDATING H7 THETA-E AXIS WEST OF TUCSON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE MADE A PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENT THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW INTO SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATER.

OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE
SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/17Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER




000
FXUS65 KTWC 301616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE HAD AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA NOW EXITING TO THE WEST BUT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH-UP. INITIAL
THOUGHTS WERE THAT...COMBINED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...WE MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW IS UNUSUALLY BRISK FROM H6 ALL THE WAY INTO UPPER LEVELS WITH
25 TO 50 KTS OF FLOW DEPENDING ON LEVEL. THIS WILL TEND TO RESET
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO CLEAR THE DEBRIS CLOUD QUICKER...ALLOWING BETTER SOLAR
INSOLATION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE`RE ALSO SEEING A
WEAK EASTERLY INFLECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA / FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REMARKABLE...BUT MOVEMENT
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS A CONCERN ALONG WITH BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
MOVING INTO A RECONSOLIDATING H7 THETA-E AXIS WEST OF TUCSON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE MADE A PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENT THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW INTO SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATER.

OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE
SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/17Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 300954
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER SRN NM LATE
LAST NIGHT PUSHED INTO ERN COCHISE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOCORRO AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN
NM...MOVING TO THE SSW. OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION AT ALL. HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CATCHING ON. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACK TRACKING ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
FEATURE WAS OVER ERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
MOVING S-SW AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY...OR FRONT SIDE..OF THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER UTAH. GOES DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INDICATED 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 30/00Z OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING...THE NCAR ENSEMBLE RUN FROM 24 HOURS
AGO OR THE 29/00Z RUN WAS HINTING AT THIS HAPPENING THIS MORNING.

SO WHAT ABOUT TODAY? AS I MENTIONED ABOVE THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON
AND WILL BASICALLY USE IT FOR GUIDANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE 07Z HRRR RUN PUSHES THE CONVECTION IN COCHISE COUNTY
ACROSS ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM BEFORE DYING
OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY BY 8 AM. IF THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL START
OFF GUNKED OVER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLED FROM THE RAIN THAT
FELL. THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING WILL BE TELLING. AT THIS TIME...AFTER
THE MORNING SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A LOW END TYPE OF MONSOON DAY
WITH BASICALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING W-SW OF
TUCSON. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES AS THINGS PROGRESS.

EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH
DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE ALONG
THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE SLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 4O-45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS...SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING COCHISE COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BRIEF REPREIVE FROM THE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 300954
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER SRN NM LATE
LAST NIGHT PUSHED INTO ERN COCHISE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOCORRO AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN
NM...MOVING TO THE SSW. OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING THIS SITUATION AT ALL. HOWEVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CATCHING ON. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BACK TRACKING ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
FEATURE WAS OVER ERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND HAS BEEN
MOVING S-SW AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY...OR FRONT SIDE..OF THE UPPER
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER UTAH. GOES DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS
INDICATED 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 30/00Z OPERATIONAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON
WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING...THE NCAR ENSEMBLE RUN FROM 24 HOURS
AGO OR THE 29/00Z RUN WAS HINTING AT THIS HAPPENING THIS MORNING.

SO WHAT ABOUT TODAY? AS I MENTIONED ABOVE THE HRRR IS CATCHING ON
AND WILL BASICALLY USE IT FOR GUIDANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE 07Z HRRR RUN PUSHES THE CONVECTION IN COCHISE COUNTY
ACROSS ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM BEFORE DYING
OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY BY 8 AM. IF THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL START
OFF GUNKED OVER WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLED FROM THE RAIN THAT
FELL. THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING WILL BE TELLING. AT THIS TIME...AFTER
THE MORNING SHOWERS...WILL GO WITH A LOW END TYPE OF MONSOON DAY
WITH BASICALLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEING W-SW OF
TUCSON. WILL LET DAYSHIFT MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES AS THINGS PROGRESS.

EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH
DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE ALONG
THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE SLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT -TSRA/-SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 4O-45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY -TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS...SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING COCHISE COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BRIEF REPREIVE FROM THE THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 300446
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
946 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SOMEWHAT BUSY SHIFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF SAHUARITA AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PICTURE ROCKS. FOR DETAILS
REGARDING STORM DAMAGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL STORM
REPORT VIA AWIPS HEADER `PHXLSRTWC` OR WMO HEADER `NWUS55 KTWC`.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
UTAH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST STORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE AROUND MINUS 67 DEGS C. CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR.

WITH STEERING FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND WITH
CONVECTION STILL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...DECIDED TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 87 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING A HIGH OF 106 DEGS...WHICH WAS 4
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY
CYCLE OF MAINLY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z
GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE
UPPER HIGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO
NERN NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT
THE GFS DEPICTED A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS
REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR
CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 300446
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
946 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED MAINLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SOMEWHAT BUSY SHIFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF SAHUARITA AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PICTURE ROCKS. FOR DETAILS
REGARDING STORM DAMAGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL STORM
REPORT VIA AWIPS HEADER `PHXLSRTWC` OR WMO HEADER `NWUS55 KTWC`.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
UTAH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST STORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE AROUND MINUS 67 DEGS C. CLOSER TO HOME...CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM. ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR.

WITH STEERING FLOW BEING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND WITH
CONVECTION STILL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...DECIDED TO KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 87 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING A HIGH OF 106 DEGS...WHICH WAS 4
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY
CYCLE OF MAINLY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z
GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE
UPPER HIGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO
NERN NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT
THE GFS DEPICTED A WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS
REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR
CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 292205
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF TUCSON IN THE VICINITY OF KITT PEAK AT THIS
TIME. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA EXCEPT ERN COCHISE COUNTY AND WRN PIMA
COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS GENERALLY WEST AROUND
15-20 KTS. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND EVENTUALLY WRN
PIMA COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO END AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED
SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE UPPER HIGH CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO NERN NEW MEXICO BY
NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS DEPICTED A
WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL
DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING
SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT -TSRA/-SHRA TO MOSTLY END BY 30/06Z...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE...
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COCHISE COUNTY. THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 292205
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF TUCSON IN THE VICINITY OF KITT PEAK AT THIS
TIME. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA EXCEPT ERN COCHISE COUNTY AND WRN PIMA
COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS GENERALLY WEST AROUND
15-20 KTS. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND EVENTUALLY WRN
PIMA COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO END AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED
SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE UPPER HIGH CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO NERN NEW MEXICO BY
NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS DEPICTED A
WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL
DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING
SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT -TSRA/-SHRA TO MOSTLY END BY 30/06Z...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE...
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COCHISE COUNTY. THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS




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