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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240930 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 24/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING/NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS FAR SOUTH.

CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS OF 08Z (2 AM MST)...ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S TO MID 40S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THESE CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST PRECIPITATION WISE...OCCURRING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THAT SAID...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALBEIT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND ON SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS).

IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON IT RIGHT NOW...BUT THE WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ASSUMING THE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MOS WIND
GUIDANCE FOR KDUG (DOUGLAS) ON SATURDAY SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41
AND 44 MPH RESPECTIVELY FROM THE NAM AND GFS. KSAD (SAFFORD) SHOWS
WINDS OF 36 TO 38 MPH. FARTHER WEST THE WINDS ARE NOT INDICATED TO
BE AS STRONG WITH KOLS (NOGALES) SHOWING WINDS OF 23 TO 25 MPH AND
KTUS (TUCSON) 20 TO 24 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND
ADVISORY IS REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SO FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A VORT LOBE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME AND
PERHAPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW THE THREAT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH...NOR IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN LOWS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY CIRRUS DECK IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY WIND
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONE 151...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE MAIN JET
CORE PUSHES THROUGH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST AREA
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS
LINE...OR THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 152...AS MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH THESE LOCATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MINUS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS AND GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON COULD SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF MONDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS FROM TUCSON EAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 240927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 24/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING/NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS FAR SOUTH.

CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS OF 08Z (2 AM MST)...ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S TO MID 40S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THESE CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST PRECIPITATION WISE...OCCURRING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THAT SAID...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALBEIT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND ON SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS).

IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON IT RIGHT NOW...BUT THE WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ASSUMING THE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MOS WIND
GUIDANCE FOR KDUG (DOUGLAS) ON SATURDAY SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41
AND 44 MPH RESPECTIVELY FROM THE NAM AND GFS. KSAD (SAFFORD) SHOWS
WINDS OF 36 TO 38 MPH. FARTHER WEST THE WINDS ARE NOT INDICATED TO
BE AS STRONG WITH KOLS (NOGALES) SHOWING WINDS OF 23 TO 25 MPH AND
KTUS (TUCSON) 20 TO 24 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND
ADVISORY IS REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SO FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A VORT LOBE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME AND
PERHAPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW THE THREAT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH...NOR IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN LOWS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY CIRRUS DECK IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY WIND
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONE 151...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE MAIN JET
CORE PUSHES THROUGH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST AREA
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS
LINE...OR THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 152...AS MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH THESE LOCATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MINUS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS AND GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON COULD SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF MONDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS FROM TUCSON EAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 240345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND ON THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
WARMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
LESS WIND TOMORROW AS ARIZONA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. UNTIL THEN...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WIND BCMG LGT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
DAY FOR A WATCH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS WIND THURSDAY BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES EAST
OF TUCSON IN NW-SE ORIENTED VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.

SATURDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG UPPER TROF TO SWING THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SNOW LEVEL BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 6K-6.5KFT NORTH TO NEAR 9KFT
FAR SE. WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NE
INTO THE WHITES WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITES.
HIGHS WITH BE 5-17 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGES OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. A GOOD ANALOG YEAR THAT
WAS SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING STORM WAS THE ONE THAT HIT THE STATE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME IN 1994

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...A LITTLE WARMER UNDER DRY/COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 232110
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND ON
THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY HAS BROUGHT
BREEZY TO VERY LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

LESS WIND THURSDAY BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES EAST OF TUCSON IN NW-SE
ORIENTED VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.

SATURDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG UPPER TROF TO SWING THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SNOW LEVEL BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 6K-6.5KFT NORTH TO NEAR 9KFT
FAR SE. WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NE
INTO THE WHITES WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITES.
HIGHS WITH BE 5-17 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGES OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. A GOOD ANALOG YEAR THAT
WAS SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING STORM WAS THE ONE THAT HIT THE STATE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME IN 1994

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...A LITTLE WARMER UNDER DRY/COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WIND WLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS UNTIL
24/03Z THEN BCMG LGT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHERWISE...SCT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY HAS BROUGHT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE A FEW PLACES EAST OF
TUCSON NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING THE DAY FOR
A WATCH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231645
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY TO VERY LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230912
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 23/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EASTERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SONORA. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST.

MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE TODAY...EXPECT ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
THIS TO BE A FAIRLY COOL SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND
THE 6-7K FT LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THAT SAID...COULD SEE
A FEW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
CONSIDERABLE WINDS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...BLOWING
DUST OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS COULD POSE A PROBLEM...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SINCE ONLY EXPECTING VIRGA...SO RAIN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WILL KEEP DESERT FLOORS DRY AND STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE DUST...ESPECIALLY IN DUST PRONE AREAS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN BELOW NORMAL
LOWS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS 2 TO 5 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MOLLERE









000
FXUS65 KTWC 230331
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
831 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN SPEED LATE THIS EVENING
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS WELL...SO NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME
WLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
WEST WINDS TOMORROW...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR THUR UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SWLY WINDS FRI. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR SAT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO ACHIEVE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS SUN. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NWLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON. COOLER TEMPS WILL THEN OCCUR WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THUR-FRI. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THEN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 222115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THRU THE WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN AND THE
AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES.

INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS RESULTED IN SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST.
THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS...A DRY AIRMASS STILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF BOTH OF
THESE ELEMENTS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST WINDS
TOMORROW...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON...BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR THUR UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SWLY WINDS FRI. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR SAT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO ACHIEVE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS SUN. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NWLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON. COOLER TEMPS WILL THEN OCCUR WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THUR-FRI. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THEN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE SWLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. SURFACE
WIND WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
AROUND 23/03Z. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS AT 8-10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS/RASMUSSEN










000
FXUS65 KTWC 221630
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW TO BKN MOSTLY
THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS SE AZ. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S-MID 30S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F LOWER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY 3-8 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME MON. 22/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTING A FAIRLY
DRY REGIME...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE NEAR 0.55 INCH. 22/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS BIG
BEND NORTHWARD INTO THE NRN CONUS PLAINS...AND A TROUGH AXIS WAS
ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. LIGHT-MODERATE SLY/SWLY FLOW
PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WED AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...
THEN AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ...AND PATCHY TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR WED AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL OCCUR WED.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR THUR UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SWLY WINDS FRI. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR SAT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO ACHIEVE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS SUN. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NWLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON. COOLER TEMPS WILL THEN OCCUR WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THUR-FRI. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THEN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE GUSTY SWLY WINDS. SURFACE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SWLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AROUND 23/04Z - 23/06Z AND CONTINUE INTO
WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY...SOUTHERN GRAHAM
COUNTY AND MUCH OF GREENLEE COUNTY. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE
ALPINE DISTRICT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY
    AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AZZ152-153.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220908
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 AM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 22/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY OVER NEW
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RESIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA AND UTAH...BUT ALSO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS WELL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY. BY WEDNESDAY THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY OCCURRING BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS
REGARDING IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED HIGHS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO
IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS TO
THE AREA THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE FOR THIS WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THAT IS
WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AT THIS POINT. SO WE COULD SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THIS
STRONGER WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FOR TUCSON POSSIBLY HOVERING
AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL....WITH THE COOLEST
DAY OCCURRING ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...HIGHS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 3
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS. THEREAFTER...
LOWS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DIG SE-WARD
TODAY WHICH WILL USHER IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW/MID LEVEL S TO
SWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SFC AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE...EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING SFC WINDS
NEAR 15KTS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUST AROUND 25 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETS IN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.  AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN US TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN GUSTIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT
WINDS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.. MINIMUM RH
LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. WINDS GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND DOWN WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE TROUGH
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT DECREASING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
STATE. STILL...WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OUT EAST TO WARRANT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

MORE TYPICAL WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US
BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY
       AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AZZ152-153.

&&

$$

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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 220338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORE MODEST AFTERNOON CU FIELD GENERALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING. STUBBORN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FIELD IN
EASTERN PIMA WILL FOLLOW SUIT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
BACK BELOW 1/2 INCH BUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO LOWER DESERTS WILL
KEEP SURFACE DEWPTS UP IN THE 30S TO EVEN NEAR 40 WEST OF TUCSON
WHILE EASTERN AREAS FALL INTO THE 20S. CURRENT ANALYSIS AND LATEST
00Z MODEL TRENDS STILL POINT TO BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AZ
TUESDAY BUT TIMING FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE SHOWS BETTER
ENHANCEMENT FOR WIND PRONE EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AS PER CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WIND WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A PACIFIC TROF MOVES INTO THE WEST. BREEZY ON TUESDAY WITH
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTS CONCERNS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME...WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN
4-8 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

A LITTLE WARMER WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEPTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL AT THIS TIME. BOTH
GFS/CANADIAN LOOK TOO DEEP/COLD VERSUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. HAVE THOUGH INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE WHITES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY SURE THIS FORECAST WILL SEE
MODIFICATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/04Z. CU FIELDS NEAR 10K FT AGL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY.  NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10KTS. A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY GRADIENT TO BREEZY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 22/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM THROUGH FRIDAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST SHY OF
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-15% RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.  MINIMUM RH
LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH RED FLAG WIND SPEEDS
PRIMARILY ACROSS ZONE 152 (MINUS THE WESTERN THIRD OF GRAHAM COUNTY)
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 153. WILL MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY.

MORE TYPICAL WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US
BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING FOR AZZ152-153.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 212140
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.
LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELDS ACROSS
SE AZ ALONG WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM IN
THE WHITES UNTIL SUNSET. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING
4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

WIND WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A PACIFIC
TROF MOVES INTO THE WEST. BREEZY ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTS CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT THIS TIME...WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN 4-8 DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

A LITTLE WARMER WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEPTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL AT THIS TIME. BOTH
GFS/CANADIAN LOOK TOO DEEP/COLD VERSUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY. HAVE THOUGH INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE WHITES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. PRETTY SURE THIS FORECAST WILL SEE
MODIFICATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z. CLEAR SKIES WITH EXCEPTION OF FEW-SCT
CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THRU 22/01Z.  NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS EXCEPT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN US TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST SHY OF RED
FLAG CRITERIA.  MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15%
RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.  MINIMUM RH
LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH RED FLAG WIND SPEEDS
PRIMARILY ACROSS ZONE 152 (MINUS THE WESTERN THIRD OF GRAHAM COUNTY)
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 153. WILL MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY.

MORE TYPICAL WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US
BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING FOR AZZ152-153.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 211600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WARMING TREND PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLEAR SKY
ACROSS SE AZ. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE DOWN FROM
SUNDAY THEY ARE STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. SO WILL SEE
SOME FLAT CU FIELDS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE WHITES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 3-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

WIND WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PACIFIC TROF
MOVES INTO THE WEST. BREEZY ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTS CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT THIS TIME...WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

A LITTLE WARMER WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WITH EXCEPTION OF FEW-SCT CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS 21/19Z THRU 22/01Z. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS GENERALLY
BELOW 10KTS EXCEPT GUSTY DURING AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN US MID WEEK
WILL GENERATE SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
OF LATE HAVE BEEN A TOUCH WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS PAST WEEKEND
HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT
WINDS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...JUST SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15% RANGE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...A BIT QUICKER
THAN EARLIER PROGGED...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST WIND OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MINIMUM RH LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE RED FLAG WIND SPEEDS
PRIMARILY ACROSS ZONE 152 (MINUS THE WESTERN THIRD OF GRAHAM COUNTY)
AND THE SOUTHERN...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ZONES 153. BASED ON THAT
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY EAST OF A TUCSON/NOGALES LINE BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A
LARGER AREA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING FOR AZZ152-153.

&&

$$

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