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000
FXUS65 KTWC 202118
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 PM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK AS A STRONG
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY
NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN
JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE OTHER MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SEEING INCREASED CU
DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW NOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN JUST IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. THERE WILL STILL
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO CONTINUE TO
JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. BY LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES TO OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
THEREAFTER...WESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH. PREFER A SOLUTION
MORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
WOULD BE MORE OF A WIND MAKER THAN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS FAR
SOUTH. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME GIVEN WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 6 AND 7 TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 21/03Z ISOLD CB/TS WITH BASES 6-8KFT AGL NE KSAD.
OTRW FLAT CU WITH BASES AROUND 8-10KFT AGL. AFT 21/03Z SKC. WINDS
MOSTLY BELOW 15 KTS THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON OR 21/21Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. DRY MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. STAY TUNED.

A STRONGER TROF IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON...ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 201533
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
833 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER TODAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
THAT RESULTED IN AN ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY HAS NOW PUSHED OFF INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS LINGERING SOUTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE IN
THE 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH RANGE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE...PINALENO AND
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH JUST SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. BY LATER TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LOWER TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGING
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES IN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE WIND
EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 21/12Z. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING
INTO MONDAY AND MUCH WARMER.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 200845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER TODAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS VALUES OF
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MODELS FORECAST PW`S TO FALL INTO
THE 0.40-0.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE TROUGH TO JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND PARTS OF
COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY ENOUGH DRYING FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE
WINDS FOR TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD CAUSE
SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW).

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTTOM
LINE IS FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS WITH THE WARMEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 21/06Z. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING
INTO MONDAY AND MUCH WARMER.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MOLLERE










000
FXUS65 KTWC 200359
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT. DRIER SUNDAY WITH A FEW
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND
MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WINDING DOWN QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. CLEARING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND DRYING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA AND A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PUSHES IN. STILL A FEW MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS SUNDAY...BUT LITTLE SUPPORT
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...INTERESTING APRIL DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH STORMS
PRODUCING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. HAD A
REPORT NEAR DOUGLAS OF 1" HAIL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS BEING BETWEEN 0.25"-0.50". NO WIND REPORTS YET BUT
BELIEVE THAT GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. NOT SURPRISED
BY THE LOCALIZED MOD-HVY RAINERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 0.65"-0.80" RANGE WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR APRIL. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING TODAYS WEATHER WILL PULL
OUT OF THE LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR AZ/NM BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON EASTER SUNDAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 4-9 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WARMER YET ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY THAN
5-8 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GIVING WAY TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TREND LATER TONIGHT.
DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING INTO MONDAY AND
MUCH WARMER.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 192141
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF ROCKY POINT MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING APRIL DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH STORMS
PRODUCING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. HAD A
REPORT NEAR DOUGLAS OF 1" HAIL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS BEING BETWEEN 0.25"-0.50". NO WIND REPORTS YET BUT
BELIEVE THAT GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. NOT SURPRISED
BY THE LOCALIZED MOD-HVY RAINERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 0.65"-0.80" RANGE WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR APRIL. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING TODAYS WEATHER WILL PULL
OUT OF THE LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR AZ/NM BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON EASTER SUNDAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 4-9 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WARMER YET ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY THAN
5-8 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MX
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD
-TRSA WITH CLOUD DECKS MAINLY ABV 10KFT AGL...ESPECIALLY E OF KTUS.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AND
LCLZD NR MVFR CONDS. AWAY FROM STORMS...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLOUDS DECREASING W TO
E LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191633
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF ROCKY POINT MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAN OUT A QUICK UP TO THE FORECAST AROUND 8 AM TO
INCREASE POPS AND MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE QPF VALUES FOR
TODAY. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FROM TUCSON
WEST...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW..WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE EAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS
CENTERED JUST E OF ROCKY POINT AS OF 9 AM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WERE IN 0.65"-0.80" RANGE WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR APRIL. SO THERE IS THE THREAT FOR BRIEF LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINERS WITH STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
35-40 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON IF AN AREA
GETS RAIN VERSUS NOT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS.

UPPER LOW TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR AZ/NM BORDER AROUND SUNRISE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON EASTER SUNDAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST E OF ROCKY POINT MEXICO WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MX TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD -TRSA WITH CLOUD DECKS MAINLY ABV
10KFT AGL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS AND LCLZD NR MVFR CONDS. AWAY FROM STORMS...EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF ROCKY POINT MEXICO
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST VALLEY AND DESERT
LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO
PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191505
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
805 AM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...RAN OUT A QUICK UP TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR
TODAY. ALSO MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE QPF VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY.
YESTERDAY EVENINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 0.80 INCHES. NAM12 MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP PW`S AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TODAY...WITH THE GFS A TAD LOWER. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE
DESERTS/VALLEYS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TODAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. WILL SEE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KICK TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY WEAKER TROUGH AXIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FOR MONDAY RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR A RAPID
WARMUP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE ENERGY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EURO. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS A DRY FORECAST THIS WEEK...BUT WE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO
10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...HIGHS RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THE WARMEST MORNINGS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...LOWS 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN CA...SW AZ AND NRN
BAJA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY... PRODUCING OVERCAST
CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD
-TSRA. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL
DOMINATE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON....WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST VALLEY
AND DESERT LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 190920
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY.
YESTERDAY EVENINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 0.80 INCHES. NAM12 MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP PW`S AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TODAY...WITH THE GFS A TAD LOWER. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE
DESERTS/VALLEYS AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MADE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS TODAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. WILL SEE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KICK TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A SECONDARY WEAKER TROUGH AXIS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FOR MONDAY RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR A RAPID
WARMUP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF AND KEEPS THE ENERGY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EURO. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS A DRY FORECAST THIS WEEK...BUT WE WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST
DAYS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO
10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...HIGHS RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. THE WARMEST MORNINGS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...LOWS 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA....SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...
PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT AND ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS WILL DOMINATE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON....WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST VALLEY
AND DESERT LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 190333
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING SATURDAY.
AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN SATURDAY...A STRONG WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC LOW PUSHING SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH OUR
CWA. SOLID MOISTURE INCREASE FOR APRIL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE .8 INCH RANGE ACROSS SE AZ AND SURFACE
DEWPTS IN THE 40S. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A VORT SPOKE
ROTATING UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
GOING OVERNIGHT. IMPULSE PUSHES ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION THAN TODAY. STILL EMPHASIZING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
TEND TO BE A LITTLE WETTER SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS UPPER LOW DRAWS NEAR...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IS LIKELY TO BE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE.
OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS BUT SOME LOCATIONS
MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.  SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OR REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE NM BORDER ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUE-WED WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SE AZ BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH PASSES...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/03Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUD
DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA.
WINDS GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA ARE BETTER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KTS.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL
DOMINATE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/DROZD/SAMPSON

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 182105
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING SATURDAY.
AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN SATURDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACROSS SE AZ AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW NEARING THE NRN BAJA COAST. HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN. A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WAS RECORDED EAST OF SAINT DAVID. HAVE ALSO
HAD REPORTS OF ISOLD BLOWING DUST NW OF TUCSON NEAR I-10.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AS UPPER LOW DRAWS NEAR...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR IS LIKELY TO BE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS BUT SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.  SHOWERS COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE NM BORDER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGH CROSSING THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TUE-WED WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO SE AZ BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH PASSES...BUT
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUD
DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA. AN ISOLD -TSRA NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH 19/02Z. WINDS GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ARE BETTER
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KTS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS NOT FULLY CLEARING OUT UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND ON
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT FOR
VALLEY AND DESERT LOCATIONS. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DROZD/SAMPSON

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 181638
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT QUICKER ADVANCE OF
MOISTURE RESULTING IN THICKER CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY. STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE TODAY IN HEAT OF THE
DAY AS PER LATEST HRRR PRODUCT. THUNDERSTORMS...OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR THAT MATTER...COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUCH A SCENARIO TOMORROW WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY NEARER TO THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
PRODUCE OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL TODAY IN SE
AZ.  ISOLD-SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLD -TSRA
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 18/22Z-19/02Z. SURFACE WIND BECOMING
SLY/SWLY 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
UP TO 35 KTS NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA.  CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ARE BETTER
ON SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE IT OUR FOR TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER LIGHT FOR VALLEY/DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VIRGA OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURS.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SUNDAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY...THOUGH MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER SRN
AZ IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA/NRN BAJA CST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WERE AROUND
0.40" WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 0.65" OVER SRN CA AND SRN SONORA
MEXICO WITH EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1" OFF BAJA SPUR. AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENING FROM TOP DOWN. SO
LOTS OF VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR VIRGA SHAFTS. HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE 7-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ LATER
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.60" AND 0.85" WHICH IS ALMOST 2
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL POPS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROF AXIS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS....WITH SMALLER INCREASES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. I BASED THIS ON LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL WRF MODEL WHICH
HITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRETTY HARD WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.

LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS TROF AXIS
PUSHES ON EAST. WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND ON
SUNDAY...COULD SEE HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS STRONG UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
WEDNESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DROZD

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON











000
FXUS65 KTWC 180942
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER SRN AZ IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA CST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WERE AROUND 0.40" WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR 0.65" OVER SRN CA AND SRN
SONORA MEXICO WITH EVEN HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1" OFF BAJA SPUR. AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOISTENING FROM TOP
DOWN. SO LOTS OF VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR VIRGA SHAFTS.
HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE 7-12 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ LATER
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY. PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.60" AND 0.85" WHICH IS ALMOST 2
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAL POPS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE TROF AXIS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS....WITH SMALLER INCREASES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. I BASED THIS ON LATEST RUNS OF LOCAL WRF MODEL WHICH
HITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRETTY HARD WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED QPF VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL GUIDANCE.

LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS TROF AXIS
PUSHES ON EAST. WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND ON
SUNDAY...COULD SEE HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
MONDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS STRONG UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE
WEDNESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS
MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL TODAY. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND THIS MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY/SWLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ON SATURDAY...BUT
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUR FOR TODAY...THOUGH THUNDER SEEMS MORE
LIKELY TO OUR EAST TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIGHT FOR VALLEY/DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
THOUGH MORE LIKELY NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 180606 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1105 PM MST THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.UPDATE...RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MADE MINOR WORDING CHANGES IN AVIATION SECTION ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROF JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE ONSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MAIN VORT LOBE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER
15Z. BY MID DAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STORMS BUILDING THOUGH LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS SEEN IN MULTIPLE POINT SOUNDING
INVERTED-V PROFILE. HAVE UPDATED THE WX GRID TO ONLY SHOW
SPRINKLES WITH ONSET OF THE SHOWERS /PRIOR TO 00Z/. STILL BEST
SHOT FOR MOISTURE LOOK TO BE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY /AND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SATURDAY/ AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE PUSHES THRU THE AREA. ONLY
OTHER MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS A LOWERING OF SNOW AMOUNTS
AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WHITE
MOUNT IAN. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06Z/19.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY WILL BE
SLY/SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...
THOUGH MORE LIKELY NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MST THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY WILL TRACK THROUGH ARIZONA ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN. MODELS
SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. A DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
WESTERN STATES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS BUT WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE THE LIKELY OUTCOME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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