000
FXUS65 KTWC 200411
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
INTO EASTERN AREAS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME ALONG
WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY WINDS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL/NERN
CHIHUAHUA DECAYING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED
NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PRODUCED A DEWPOINT JUMP OF
15 DEGS F AT EL PASO TEXAS WITH SE WIND GUST TO 25 KTS DURING THE
PAST HOUR.
AT ANY RATE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS SE
AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /218 PM MST WED JUN 19 2013/...MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A BIT FARTHER EAST
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AS FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY AS EARLY AS TOMORROW...BUT
ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE POSITIONED OVER THE FAVORABLE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR AN EVEN GREATER MOISTURE INCREASE. THAT
SAID...I KEPT THE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH MOS POP NUMBERS INDICATE LESSER CHANCES THAN
WHAT IS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR 21/00Z. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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BF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GM
000
FXUS65 KTWC 192118
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 PM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY EASTERN
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC LOW
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY...BUT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS EASTERN
SONORA AND WESTERN CHIHUAHUA.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A
BIT FARTHER EAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK TO A POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AS
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTH
AND EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A LONE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW...BUT ESPECIALLY AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH WILL MOVE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE POSITIONED OVER THE FAVORABLE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR AN EVEN GREATER MOISTURE INCREASE. THAT
SAID...I KEPT THE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVEN THOUGH MOS POP NUMBERS INDICATE LESSER CHANCES THAN
WHAT IS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR 20/23Z. WLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KTS THRU 20/04Z...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
AFT 20/04Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146 (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY) UNTIL
7 PM MST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST
TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE ALPINE DISTRICT
OF ZONE 146).
&&
$$
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PUBLIC...GM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ
000
FXUS65 KTWC 191626
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
926 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY EASTERN
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC LOW
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TUCSON
INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OR 20/12Z. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. THUS...A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146
(FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY) FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MST TODAY WITH
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE SAME LOCATION THURSDAY. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND DRY WESTERLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PUSHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF US WITH HIGH
CENTER ANCHORED IN CHIHUAHUA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEK.
SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE CRATERED EVEN MORE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1/4 OF AN INCH
WITH NEAREST DEEPER MOISTURE STILL IN SOUTHERN SONORA...CHIHUAHUA
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UP THE SIERRA MADRES INTO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. MODEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH SOME
SEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. JUST ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS.
ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WITH SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GET MORE SERIOUS ABOUT
IMPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL THEN WE`LL STAY HOT AS WE STRUGGLE TO RESTART EVEN MODEST
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO
7 PM MST TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE
ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
&&
$$
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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
000
FXUS65 KTWC 190934
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY EASTERN
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND DRY WESTERLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. STRONG LOW PUSHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF US WITH HIGH CENTER
ANCHORED IN CHIHUAHUA. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEK.
SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE CRATERED EVEN MORE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1/4 OF AN INCH
WITH NEAREST DEEPER MOISTURE STILL IN SOUTHERN SONORA...CHIHUAHUA
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AS THE HIGH BREAKS DOWN IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION UP THE SIERRA MADRES INTO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. MODEST
FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH SOME
SEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. JUST ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS.
ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WITH SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATING IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GET MORE SERIOUS ABOUT
IMPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
UNTIL THEN WE`LL STAY HOT AS WE STRUGGLE TO RESTART EVEN MODEST
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OR 20/06Z. SURFACE WIND AFTERNOON WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. THUS...A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146
(FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY) FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MST TODAY WITH
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE SAME LOCATION THURSDAY. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO
7 PM MST TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE
ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
&&
$$
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MEYER/RASMUSSEN
000
FXUS65 KTWC 190415
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME ALONG
WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY WINDS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE REST
OF TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013/...MODELS ADVERTISE THE
UPPER HIGH TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES EASTWARD. WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY. SOME MINIMAL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE HIGH MAY BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO IMPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
BUT STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TO THE
INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW TEMPS WILL
HOVER WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGS OF NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR 20/00Z. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WLY/SWLY 12-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146 (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY) FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO
7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE
ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION/AVIATION...BF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
000
FXUS65 KTWC 182150
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA SPUR. THIS HAS PUSHED THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO
TEXAS. IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND MOVING EAST.
MODELS ADVERTISE THE UPPER HIGH TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES EASTWARD. WE SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE
COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH
AROUND SUNDAY. SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND
INTO NEW MEXICO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH MAY BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO IMPORT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TO THE INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO
BORDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN AROUND 1 TO 2 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOW TEMPS WILL
HOVER WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGS OF NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC CONDITIONS THRU 20/00Z. SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS THRU 19/02Z...THEN DIMINISHING
SURFACE WIND...WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS BETWEEN
19/05Z AND 19/15Z. BREEZY SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR HEATING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE FORECASTED ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146 (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY) FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO
7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ146 (SPECIFICALLY THE
ALPINE DISTRICT OF ZONE 146).
&&
$$
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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
000
FXUS65 KTWC 181555
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA SPUR.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO TEXAS. IR AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER AND MOVING EAST.
AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT AT 84
DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF
NEEDED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 19/18Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SEEP BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG LOW
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE PHASES EAST OF US.
DRY REGIME WITH SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER A MEAGER 1/3 OF AN INCH (ABOUT HALF OF CLIMO FOR MID JUNE).
DEEPER MOISTURE NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN SOUTHERN SONORA AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT NO MECHANISM TO GET IT HERE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AS THE RIDGE PHASES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE BLOCKING WEAK HIGH
CIRCULATION IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL RECONSOLIDATE IN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS EXPECT SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA TO GET
PRETTY ACTIVE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. STILL A WEAK WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW BUT GAINING SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WE PUSH LATER IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MOISTURE INFLUXES TO BRING
CONVECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...ALBEIT A
RELATIVELY LOW GRADE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THAT EMPHASIZES TERRAIN
INFLUENCES.
ECMWF BUILDS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER BACK INTO NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...THIS WOULD BE IDEAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL EARLY SEASON UPSWING
IN ACTIVITY.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH...HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ROUTINELY RUNNING 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. SUMMER IS EITHER HOT AND DRY OR MODERATED BY
THE MOISTURE...NOT MUCH IN BETWEEN. WE`LL KEEP COUNTING THE 100
DEGREE DAYS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
000
FXUS65 KTWC 180936
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG LOW PUSHES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE PHASES EAST OF US. DRY
REGIME WITH SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER A MEAGER 1/3 OF AN INCH (ABOUT HALF OF CLIMO FOR MID JUNE).
DEEPER MOISTURE NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN SOUTHERN SONORA AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT NO MECHANISM TO GET IT HERE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AS THE RIDGE PHASES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE BLOCKING WEAK HIGH
CIRCULATION IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL RECONSOLIDATE IN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS EXPECT SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA TO GET
PRETTY ACTIVE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. STILL A WEAK WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW BUT GAINING SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WE PUSH LATER IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MOISTURE INFLUXES TO BRING
CONVECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...ALBEIT A
RELATIVELY LOW GRADE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THAT EMPHASIZES TERRAIN
INFLUENCES.
ECMWF BUILDS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER BACK INTO NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...THIS WOULD BE IDEAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL EARLY SEASON UPSWING
IN ACTIVITY.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH...HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ROUTINELY RUNNING 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. SUMMER IS EITHER HOT AND DRY OR MODERATED BY
THE MOISTURE...NOT MUCH IN BETWEEN. WE`LL KEEP COUNTING THE 100
DEGREE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 19/06Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SEEP BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
000
FXUS65 KTWC 180340
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
WILL FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOR
A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER IN NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BECOME LIGHT BY LATE THIS
EVENING. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND RH
GRIDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 19/00Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY TO MONDAY.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND HAD
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO HINT AT MOISTURE
MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEKEND. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 172000
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
WILL FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOR
A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND HAD
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO HINT AT MOISTURE
MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEKEND. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 19/00Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUST OF
UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON FRIDAY TO MONDAY.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 171624
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
WILL FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOR
A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND HAD
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18Z 6/18. SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUST OF UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST GENERALLY EAST OF THE TUCSON TO NOGALES LINE
FRIDAY TO MONDAY. STORM POTENTIAL EXIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
OF I-10 FRIDAY TO MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK WITH
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS WITH
SURFACE DEWPTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO ABOUT .8 AND THIS IS PROBABLY
MORE LIKE 1/2 INCH BY NOW AS PER CURRENT SATELLITE SOUNDER ESTIMATE
TRENDS. AS THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF WE CAN EXPECT NO
MORE THAN A FEW WEAK CU FIELDS OVER FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW
DAYS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR HOT CONDITIONS...ABOUT 7 OR 8 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO BUT NOT RECORD LEVELS.
A STRONG LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THE WEEK
WITH RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF US OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKLY RECONSOLIDATES IN NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THEN TEXAS THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK
UP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS AS SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA SEE A STRONG UPSWING
IN ACTIVITY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST TREND BASED ON THIS LOOSE
PATTERN IDEA AND BRING LOW GRADE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 171228 CCA
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 AM MST MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
WILL FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK FOR
A CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS WITH
SURFACE DEWPTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO ABOUT .8 AND THIS IS PROBABLY
MORE LIKE 1/2 INCH BY NOW AS PER CURRENT SATELLITE SOUNDER ESTIMATE
TRENDS. AS THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF WE CAN EXPECT NO
MORE THAN A FEW WEAK CU FIELDS OVER FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW
DAYS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR HOT CONDITIONS...ABOUT 7 OR 8 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO BUT NOT RECORD LEVELS.
A STRONG LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THE WEEK
WITH RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF US OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKLY RECONSOLIDATES IN NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THEN TEXAS THURSDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK
UP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS AS SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA SEE A STRONG UPSWING
IN ACTIVITY. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST TREND BASED ON THIS LOOSE
PATTERN IDEA AND BRING LOW GRADE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE
PICTURE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12Z 6/18. SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUST OF UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST GENERALLY EAST OF THE TUCSON TO NOGALES LINE
FRIDAY TO MONDAY. STORM POTENTIAL EXIST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
OF I-10 FRIDAY TO MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK WITH
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.CLIMATE...THE NUMBERS ARE IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. FROM JUNE
1 TO JUNE 15 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN TUCSON WAS 89.0 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE WARMEST JUNE 1ST TO JUNE 15TH ON RECORD FOR TUCSON AND
IS A FULL DEGREE WARMER THAN THE NEXT WHICH WAS 88.0 IN 2006.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE MONTH...THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD IS 89.2
IN 1994. WE ARE EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEK...SO UNLESS WE SEE A MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH IT WILL BE IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD AND PERHAPS IN
THE TOP FEW.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/MEADOWS/LADER
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