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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
AROUND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO TAP SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND TRACKS THIS
MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS SONORA MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE MOISTURE
APPEARED TO BE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH SO JUST LOOKING AT SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
AROUND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO TAP SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND TRACKS THIS
MOISTURE AS FAR NORTH AS SONORA MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE MOISTURE
APPEARED TO BE LIMITED THIS FAR NORTH SO JUST LOOKING AT SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 020423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH THE SCT CU FIELD THAT WAS PRESENT OVER NRN AZ EARLIER
TODAY DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AREA SFC TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF WILL RACE
THRU NRN AZ AND INTO NRN NM/SERN CO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS IN SERN AZ. HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH A GENERALLY
NWLY FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS THURS
SHOULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NO UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU THURSDAY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DATE CONFIRMS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO
GENERATE SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY
EARLY THURSDAY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLING OVER ARIZONA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WHILE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
SONORA STATE. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 020423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH THE SCT CU FIELD THAT WAS PRESENT OVER NRN AZ EARLIER
TODAY DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AREA SFC TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF WILL RACE
THRU NRN AZ AND INTO NRN NM/SERN CO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS IN SERN AZ. HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH A GENERALLY
NWLY FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS THURS
SHOULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NO UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU THURSDAY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DATE CONFIRMS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO
GENERATE SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY
EARLY THURSDAY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLING OVER ARIZONA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WHILE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
SONORA STATE. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 012057
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
157 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DATE CONFIRMS A MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE SHALLOW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY EARLY
THURSDAY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLING OVER ARIZONA. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WHILE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
SONORA STATE. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BY MID WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU THURSDAY.  WLY SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFT 02/01Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE
FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 011605
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INFLUENCE TO ARIZONA WEATHER OTHER THAN A REINFORCEMENT
OF DRY AIR IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY TREND AND WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 011605
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INFLUENCE TO ARIZONA WEATHER OTHER THAN A REINFORCEMENT
OF DRY AIR IN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ALLOWING FOR A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY TREND AND WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010918
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT
NO RAIN EXPECTED. JUST SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED THIS FAR
SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010918
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
218 AM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT
NO RAIN EXPECTED. JUST SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED THIS FAR
SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KTS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010417
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...04Z IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER SERN AZ THIS
EVENING. VERY PLEASANT WITH SFC TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
MUCH DRIER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS SITTING COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF KTUS DIPPED BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST
THIS EVENING.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY... THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION
WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010417
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...04Z IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER SERN AZ THIS
EVENING. VERY PLEASANT WITH SFC TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
MUCH DRIER AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS SITTING COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF KTUS DIPPED BELOW THE 60 DEGREE MARK AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST
THIS EVENING.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS...AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY... THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION
WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 302115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 302115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON











000
FXUS65 KTWC 292045
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 292045
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







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