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000
FXUS65 KTWC 311610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. AN MCS DEVELOPED LATE LAST
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY RESULTED IN STORMS OVER EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY...WHICH PRODUCED 1.34 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AT THE LONG PARK
GAUGE IN THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL COCHISE
COUNTY.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WAS RATHER SPARSE. HOWEVER...THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME
IN WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOW
A MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE
MOST RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO BETWEEN PICTURE ROCKS AND THREE POINTS AND
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER NORTHERN SONORA JUST SOUTH OF NOGALES. WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE TODAY AND THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT ALSO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. 00Z WRF/GFS SHOWS A
SIMILAR OUTCOME BUT THE ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE THAN THE NAM. 12Z
HRRR ALSO SHOWS US TO BE MOST ACTIVE WEST OF TUCSON. INHERITED POP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REFLECT THIS NOTION QUITE
WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...IF
NEEDED.

NIGHT SHIFT INCLUDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA
AND PINAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
YESTERDAYS TEMPS REBOUNDED VERY QUICKLY AFTER CLOUDINESS ERODED...SO
SUSPECT THE SAME FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...I DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY W AND S OF KTUS THRU 31/18Z. OTRW DECREASING
CLOUDS THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/18Z. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS
OF BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH
LOWER POPS AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT
STARTS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 311610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. AN MCS DEVELOPED LATE LAST
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY RESULTED IN STORMS OVER EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY...WHICH PRODUCED 1.34 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AT THE LONG PARK
GAUGE IN THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL COCHISE
COUNTY.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WAS RATHER SPARSE. HOWEVER...THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME
IN WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOW
A MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE
MOST RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO BETWEEN PICTURE ROCKS AND THREE POINTS AND
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER NORTHERN SONORA JUST SOUTH OF NOGALES. WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE TODAY AND THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT ALSO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. 00Z WRF/GFS SHOWS A
SIMILAR OUTCOME BUT THE ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE THAN THE NAM. 12Z
HRRR ALSO SHOWS US TO BE MOST ACTIVE WEST OF TUCSON. INHERITED POP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REFLECT THIS NOTION QUITE
WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...IF
NEEDED.

NIGHT SHIFT INCLUDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA
AND PINAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
YESTERDAYS TEMPS REBOUNDED VERY QUICKLY AFTER CLOUDINESS ERODED...SO
SUSPECT THE SAME FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...I DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY W AND S OF KTUS THRU 31/18Z. OTRW DECREASING
CLOUDS THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/18Z. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS
OF BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH
LOWER POPS AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT
STARTS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 311010
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS POPPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN COCHISE/SW SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. OTHERWISE DEBRIS CLOUDS
EXIST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER W TEXAS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF CA COAST. THIS PLACED ARIZONA UNDER S-
SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTER A DOWN THURSDAY...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE ONE WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
TUCSON WEST SEEING THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER DESERT STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DISTURBANCE CAUGHT IN THE S-SE FLOW ALOFT. WITH PW VALUES IN THE
1.2" TO 1.6" RANGE...HIGHEST WEST...WET MICROBURSTS ARE A CONCERN.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
CUT INTO VALLEY CAPE. RAISED POPS WEST OF TUCSON LATER TODAY AND
ALSO...PER COORD WITH WFO PHX...THRU IN BLOWING DUST WORDING FROM
TUCSON W-NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH
THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH LOWER POPS AS SOME
DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN OUT OF
THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY S OF KTUS THRU 31/15Z. OTRW DECREASING CLOUDS
THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF
BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z, OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 301600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENT LIFTING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER PICTURE
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT SHOWS A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
1.62 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1.25 INCHES THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE MU CAPE HAS DECREASED FROM AROUND 1100 J/KG YESTERDAY
MORNING...TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG TODAY. THE LIFTED INDEX FROM THIS
MORNING WAS A MEAGER MINUS 1. GIVEN THAT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT ALREADY
UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS AND INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS A BIT. WE WILL STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 74 DEGS...WHICH
WAS EXACTLY NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT READINGS SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO BKN MID LEVEL DECKS. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FARTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT
AN UGLY PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT
MUCH LESS. WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
WE MAY HAVE TO WORK WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW
NO LONGER REINFORCING OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY
YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY
MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL
MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY
AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 301600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENT LIFTING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER PICTURE
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT SHOWS A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
1.62 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1.25 INCHES THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE MU CAPE HAS DECREASED FROM AROUND 1100 J/KG YESTERDAY
MORNING...TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG TODAY. THE LIFTED INDEX FROM THIS
MORNING WAS A MEAGER MINUS 1. GIVEN THAT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT ALREADY
UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS AND INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS A BIT. WE WILL STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 74 DEGS...WHICH
WAS EXACTLY NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT READINGS SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO BKN MID LEVEL DECKS. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FARTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT
AN UGLY PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT
MUCH LESS. WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
WE MAY HAVE TO WORK WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW
NO LONGER REINFORCING OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY
YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY
MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL
MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY
AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 301600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENT LIFTING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER PICTURE
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT SHOWS A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM
1.62 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1.25 INCHES THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE MU CAPE HAS DECREASED FROM AROUND 1100 J/KG YESTERDAY
MORNING...TO LESS THAN 300 J/KG TODAY. THE LIFTED INDEX FROM THIS
MORNING WAS A MEAGER MINUS 1. GIVEN THAT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT ALREADY
UPDATED TODAYS FORECAST TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS AND INCREASE
HIGH TEMPS A BIT. WE WILL STILL SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 81 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 74 DEGS...WHICH
WAS EXACTLY NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT READINGS SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED DAYTIME HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
TO BKN MID LEVEL DECKS. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FARTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT
AN UGLY PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT
MUCH LESS. WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
WE MAY HAVE TO WORK WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW
NO LONGER REINFORCING OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY (WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY
YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY
MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL
MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY
AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 301321 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS FOR SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH MORE CLEARING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS. NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT AN UGLY
PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT MUCH LESS.
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FURTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING
INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING TREND THIS
MORNING WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THE FLOW IS STILL WEAK BUT GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ACCORDING TO CIRA LPW TOTALS. WE MAY HAVE TO WORK
WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW NO LONGER REINFORCING
OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY
(WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID
LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO
NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS
SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW
AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 301321 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS FOR SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH MORE CLEARING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS. NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT AN UGLY
PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT MUCH LESS.
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FURTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING
INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING TREND THIS
MORNING WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THE FLOW IS STILL WEAK BUT GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ACCORDING TO CIRA LPW TOTALS. WE MAY HAVE TO WORK
WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW NO LONGER REINFORCING
OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY
(WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID
LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO
NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS
SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW
AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 301321 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS FOR SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH MORE CLEARING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS. NOT QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AROUND BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
STORMS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING. WHAT AN UGLY
PROFILE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE WERE EXPECTING LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT NOT THAT MUCH LESS.
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. FAVORED LOCATIONS INCLUDE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON (TOHONO O`ODHAM
NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...COCHISE COUNTY). WE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO. MORE ROOM FOR SURFACE DEW POINTS
TO MIX LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z LASTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FURTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING
INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING TREND THIS
MORNING WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THE FLOW IS STILL WEAK BUT GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ACCORDING TO CIRA LPW TOTALS. WE MAY HAVE TO WORK
WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW NO LONGER REINFORCING
OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY
(WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID
LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO
NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS
SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW
AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 301014
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A
WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LESS DEBRIS CLOUD THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF IT NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING INTO
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING TREND THIS MORNING
WITH MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE FLOW IS STILL WEAK BUT GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ACCORDING TO CIRA LPW TOTALS. WE MAY HAVE TO WORK
WITH WHAT WE HAVE FOR A BIT WITH THE WEAK FLOW NO LONGER REINFORCING
OUR MOISTURE SUPPLY. THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY
(WE HELD ONTO OUR 60S THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY). IN ADDITION...BY
THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY MODEST WARMING TREND IN MID
LEVELS AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO
NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THAT WILL MAKE FOR EASY MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LESS
SUPPORT IN GENERAL FOR VALLEY STORMS. ONLY AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW
AVERAGE COVERAGE IN VALLEYS.

THE FLOW...THOUGH WEAK...REMAINS FAVORABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF CHIHUAHUA WOULD
BE A NICE ASSIST FOR STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

AFTER THAT THERE IS LESS TO FOCUS ON IN THE FLOW THAT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INITIALLY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE H7 THETA-E TRENDS...SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ORIENTATION AND
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NEW TREND WITH THE
ECMWF REBUILDING THE RIDGE INTO A BLOCKING POSITION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WOULD REDUCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH A
PARTIAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z LASTING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK DRYING IN WESTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF TUCSON STARTING THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOWS POSSIBLE FURTHER AWAY FROM
STORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS
DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 300352
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD. LATEST KEMX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS OVER COCHISE AND SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL WE
RECEIVED BEING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN SAN MANUEL. HEADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES AS NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS PERSIST. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR AS WELL WHICH GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND ADJACENT PINAL
COUNTY WE HAVE REDUCED POPS JUST A BIT AS OUTFLOWS ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY WESTWARD WITHOUT INITIATING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/06Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/06Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/06Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 300352
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD. LATEST KEMX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS OVER COCHISE AND SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL WE
RECEIVED BEING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN SAN MANUEL. HEADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES AS NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS PERSIST. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR AS WELL WHICH GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND ADJACENT PINAL
COUNTY WE HAVE REDUCED POPS JUST A BIT AS OUTFLOWS ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY WESTWARD WITHOUT INITIATING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/06Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/06Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/06Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 292203
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...ONE
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY GET ACTIVITY GOING ON THURSDAY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR
GENERAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION THAT COVERED MUCH OF
ARIZONA...NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO IS NOW CONTINUING TO ERODE. A COUPLE OF MCV`S WERE EVIDENT ON
THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONE OVER FAR WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY WEST OF AJO AND ANOTHER WAS OVER LORDSBURG NEW MEXICO.
THAT ONE HAS CURRENTLY MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY AND IS HELPING TO SPARK STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. LATEST IMAGE SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS STILL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS AND ALSO OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND A LARGE PART OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...MOST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...AND A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AFTER THE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A SLOWER START...AT LEAST
FOR CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO.

THERE IS BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH
STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STILL A
MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES...INCLUDING THE U OF
A GPS PW...SHOW A VALUE OF NEAR 1.75 INCHES FOR TUCSON. SATELLITE
DERIVED PW`S SUGGEST READINGS OF 1.6 - 1.8 FOR TUCSON...WITH LESSER
VALUES TO OUR EAST...BUT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW`S WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DESERTS AND VALLEYS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE DECREASES. MODELS SHOW SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH RESULTING IN A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DRIER FLOW REGIME. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/23Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/04Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/04Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/04Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 292203
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...ONE
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY GET ACTIVITY GOING ON THURSDAY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR
GENERAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION THAT COVERED MUCH OF
ARIZONA...NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO IS NOW CONTINUING TO ERODE. A COUPLE OF MCV`S WERE EVIDENT ON
THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONE OVER FAR WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY WEST OF AJO AND ANOTHER WAS OVER LORDSBURG NEW MEXICO.
THAT ONE HAS CURRENTLY MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY AND IS HELPING TO SPARK STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. LATEST IMAGE SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS STILL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS AND ALSO OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND A LARGE PART OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...MOST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...AND A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AFTER THE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A SLOWER START...AT LEAST
FOR CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO.

THERE IS BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH
STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STILL A
MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES...INCLUDING THE U OF
A GPS PW...SHOW A VALUE OF NEAR 1.75 INCHES FOR TUCSON. SATELLITE
DERIVED PW`S SUGGEST READINGS OF 1.6 - 1.8 FOR TUCSON...WITH LESSER
VALUES TO OUR EAST...BUT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW`S WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DESERTS AND VALLEYS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE DECREASES. MODELS SHOW SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH RESULTING IN A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DRIER FLOW REGIME. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/23Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/04Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/04Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/04Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 292203
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...ONE
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY GET ACTIVITY GOING ON THURSDAY AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR
GENERAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION THAT COVERED MUCH OF
ARIZONA...NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO IS NOW CONTINUING TO ERODE. A COUPLE OF MCV`S WERE EVIDENT ON
THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONE OVER FAR WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY WEST OF AJO AND ANOTHER WAS OVER LORDSBURG NEW MEXICO.
THAT ONE HAS CURRENTLY MOVED TO A POSITION NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY AND IS HELPING TO SPARK STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. LATEST IMAGE SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS STILL OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS AND ALSO OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND A LARGE PART OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...MOST OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...AND A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AFTER THE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A SLOWER START...AT LEAST
FOR CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO.

THERE IS BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH
STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STILL A
MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES...INCLUDING THE U OF
A GPS PW...SHOW A VALUE OF NEAR 1.75 INCHES FOR TUCSON. SATELLITE
DERIVED PW`S SUGGEST READINGS OF 1.6 - 1.8 FOR TUCSON...WITH LESSER
VALUES TO OUR EAST...BUT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW`S WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DESERTS AND VALLEYS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH SHOULD
SHIFT TO NEARLY OVERHEAD OR JUST TO OUR EAST WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
LESSER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MOISTURE DECREASES. MODELS SHOW SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS THE HIGH SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH RESULTING IN A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DRIER FLOW REGIME. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/23Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/04Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/04Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/04Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 291641
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
941 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF ARIZONA...
NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER EXTREME WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY JUST WEST OF AJO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER MCV IS IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR LORDSBURG.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATES 10 AND 19 THAT EXTEND FROM NEAR AVRA VALLEY TO NEAR
THREE POINTS TO NEAR ARIVACA AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY.

WITH SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY GET
TO A SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUN...AND AT THAT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEERING FLOW OF
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. STILL A MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY.

INHERITED POP FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY
TO BURN OFF AND EXPOSE MORE SUN AT THAT TIME. SO...FOR NOW...NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/22Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER
TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE
LIFTED OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN...IF PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE
HOW BUSY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY
MEANS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291641
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
941 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF ARIZONA...
NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER EXTREME WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY JUST WEST OF AJO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER MCV IS IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR LORDSBURG.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATES 10 AND 19 THAT EXTEND FROM NEAR AVRA VALLEY TO NEAR
THREE POINTS TO NEAR ARIVACA AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY.

WITH SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY GET
TO A SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUN...AND AT THAT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEERING FLOW OF
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. STILL A MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY.

INHERITED POP FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY
TO BURN OFF AND EXPOSE MORE SUN AT THAT TIME. SO...FOR NOW...NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/22Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER
TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE
LIFTED OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN...IF PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE
HOW BUSY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY
MEANS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 291641
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
941 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW RESIDES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION COVERING MUCH OF ARIZONA...
NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV OVER EXTREME WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY JUST WEST OF AJO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER MCV IS IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR LORDSBURG.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATES 10 AND 19 THAT EXTEND FROM NEAR AVRA VALLEY TO NEAR
THREE POINTS TO NEAR ARIVACA AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY.

WITH SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY GET
TO A SLOW START THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUN...AND AT THAT THIS TIME THAT LOOKS TO BE
OVER PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

BETTER FLOW ON THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING WITH STEERING FLOW OF
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. STILL A MOIST SOUNDING...SO WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MUCH FASTER MOTION
TO THE STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FLOODING ISSUES NOT AS
PREVALENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A CONCERN. WE COULD
ALSO SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY.

INHERITED POP FORECAST HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY
TO BURN OFF AND EXPOSE MORE SUN AT THAT TIME. SO...FOR NOW...NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/22Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER
TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE
LIFTED OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN...IF PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE
HOW BUSY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY
MEANS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291313 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST PERIOD UPDATE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING YET.
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAINS OF A COMPLEX IS SPREADING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY FROM THE EAST WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
ON RADAR IMAGERY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WE MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE
SOME STORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING PRETTY MURKY FURTHER WEST
INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING BUT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DO TOO MUCH WORK TO GET AT IT.
FIRST PERIOD UPDATE ENHANCED THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY
(LATER DEVELOPMENT) WHILE LOWERING QPF VALUES AROUND SANTA CRUZ
VALLEY.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02
TODAY AS OF 6 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN
ERROR AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE
THE 1 MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WE
SHOULD GET THAT STRAIGHTENED OUT TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291313 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST PERIOD UPDATE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING YET.
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAINS OF A COMPLEX IS SPREADING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY FROM THE EAST WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
ON RADAR IMAGERY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WE MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE
SOME STORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING PRETTY MURKY FURTHER WEST
INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING BUT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DO TOO MUCH WORK TO GET AT IT.
FIRST PERIOD UPDATE ENHANCED THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY
(LATER DEVELOPMENT) WHILE LOWERING QPF VALUES AROUND SANTA CRUZ
VALLEY.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02
TODAY AS OF 6 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN
ERROR AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE
THE 1 MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WE
SHOULD GET THAT STRAIGHTENED OUT TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





000
FXUS65 KTWC 291313 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST PERIOD UPDATE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING YET.
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAINS OF A COMPLEX IS SPREADING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY FROM THE EAST WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
ON RADAR IMAGERY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WE MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE
SOME STORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING PRETTY MURKY FURTHER WEST
INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING BUT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DO TOO MUCH WORK TO GET AT IT.
FIRST PERIOD UPDATE ENHANCED THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY
(LATER DEVELOPMENT) WHILE LOWERING QPF VALUES AROUND SANTA CRUZ
VALLEY.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02
TODAY AS OF 6 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN
ERROR AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE
THE 1 MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WE
SHOULD GET THAT STRAIGHTENED OUT TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





000
FXUS65 KTWC 291313 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST PERIOD UPDATE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS
BUBBLING AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING YET.
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAINS OF A COMPLEX IS SPREADING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY FROM THE EAST WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
ON RADAR IMAGERY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WE MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE
SOME STORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING PRETTY MURKY FURTHER WEST
INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THERE IS ELEVATED CAPE ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING BUT WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DO TOO MUCH WORK TO GET AT IT.
FIRST PERIOD UPDATE ENHANCED THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY
(LATER DEVELOPMENT) WHILE LOWERING QPF VALUES AROUND SANTA CRUZ
VALLEY.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02
TODAY AS OF 6 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN
ERROR AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE
THE 1 MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP. WE
SHOULD GET THAT STRAIGHTENED OUT TODAY.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291018
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02 TODAY
AS OF 3 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR
AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1
MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN
THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291018
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02 TODAY
AS OF 3 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR
AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1
MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN
THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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MEYER/RASMUSSEN




000
FXUS65 KTWC 291018
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF DEBRIS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF REMNANT
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM JUST WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON FROM OUR COMPLEX LAST NIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST
INTO PINAL COUNTY AT 245 AM. A NICE LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON
THE PERIPHERY JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PINAL AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SMALLER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN TACT
IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING INTO COCHISE COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN.

A DIFFICULT CALL TODAY AS WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WE WILL INITIALLY START THE DAY WITH MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN EXPECTED...LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING
HOURS. WITH LATER HEATING WE WILL BE SLOW TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FAVOR AREAS THAT WERE NOT
AS HEAVILY IMPACTED WITH MID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS ESPECIALLY COCHISE COUNTY. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD FILL
IN ACROSS OTHER AREAS. THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING BETWEEN
THE LOW NOW UP TO CENTRAL BAJA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST...SO STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
AREAS THAT WERE HIT YESTERDAY. WITHOUT AS MUCH SUNSHINE IN THOSE
AREAS WILL WE HAVE SOMETHING TO TRIGGER THE RESET CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL? OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN EASTERN AREAS MAY PLAY A ROLL
IN THAT. ALSO...LATER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH (AROUND 00Z OR SO) COULD
HELP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. THIS IMPULSE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN TEND
TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN...IF
PERHAPS A BIT WEAKER. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW BUSY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE. A WEAKER FLOW GENERALLY MEANS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESET.

AFTER THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME FLAVOR OF MONSOONAL FLOW BUT NOT AT AN
INTENSITY THAT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE`LL KEEP THE
FORECAST AT CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UP/DOWN DETAILS AS MINOR FEATURES IN THE FLOW
PRESENT THEMSELVES.

NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND .02 TODAY
AS OF 3 AM. THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR
AFTER ABOUT 630 PM YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1
MINUTE DATA HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN
THE HOURLY METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT AGL
WITH RESIDUAL -SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING. SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/21Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





000
FXUS65 KTWC 290439
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK. WE WILL THEN HAVE A DECREASING
THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT TURNED INTO QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH AREAS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
WESTWARD BEING HIT THE HARDEST. THERE IS STILL A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND FAR NW SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM. SOME OF THE BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE
SLOWER REACTING SO RESIDUAL SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA CAME IN WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
INCLUDING THE AIRPORT. NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN.
THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR AFTER
ABOUT 0130Z BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1 MINUTE DATA
HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE HOURLY
METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

MEANWHILE...LATEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS
CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS MCS DOES CLOUD THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY /NO PUN
INTENDED/ AS RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A WORKED OVER BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LIMIT ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WEST.
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND FULL REVIEW OF GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT
AGL WITH RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA TAPERING OFF BY ABOUT 29/09Z MOST
LOCATIONS. AFT 29/15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL. SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/18Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR
CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 290439
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK. WE WILL THEN HAVE A DECREASING
THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT TURNED INTO QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH AREAS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
WESTWARD BEING HIT THE HARDEST. THERE IS STILL A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND FAR NW SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM. SOME OF THE BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE
SLOWER REACTING SO RESIDUAL SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA CAME IN WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
INCLUDING THE AIRPORT. NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN.
THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR AFTER
ABOUT 0130Z BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1 MINUTE DATA
HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE HOURLY
METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

MEANWHILE...LATEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS
CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS MCS DOES CLOUD THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY /NO PUN
INTENDED/ AS RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A WORKED OVER BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LIMIT ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WEST.
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND FULL REVIEW OF GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT
AGL WITH RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA TAPERING OFF BY ABOUT 29/09Z MOST
LOCATIONS. AFT 29/15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL. SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/18Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR
CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282128
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
228 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. WE WILL THEN HAVE A DECREASING
THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TODAY
BUT CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF DURANGO AND SINALOA MEXICO AND
WILL EVENTUALLY ROTATE UP TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS OR SO AND SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INDICATE THAT
READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1.2 - 1.4 OVER EASTERN LOCALES...1.4 -
1.6 OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 1.6 - 1.7 OVER THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS OF
PIMA COUNTY.

THE LATEST CIRA LPW IMAGE SHOWS VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MEANWHILE PW`S
ARE ADVERTISED TO REMAIN AROUND THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE FOR CENTRAL
ZONES...WITH VALUES TO THE EAST A BIT LOWER IN THE 1.3 - 1.5 INCH
RANGE. OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS AND FARTHER WEST...VALUES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK ON WEDNESDAY.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS FIELD
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NOGALES TO TUCSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS ALL OF
PIMA COUNTY...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF
SANTA ROSA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND INTO GRAHAM COUNTY.
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RUCKER CANYON GAUGE COLLECTING 1.85 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF/NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS HRRR...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD AND HIGH TEMPS ALSO
INCREASE AND REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES A
BIT AGAIN.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS
4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/23Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL THRU 29/06Z. BETWEEN 29/06Z AND
29/15Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT
AGL. AFT 29/15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
THRU 29/05Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT
29/18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 282128
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
228 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. WE WILL THEN HAVE A DECREASING
THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING TODAY
BUT CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF DURANGO AND SINALOA MEXICO AND
WILL EVENTUALLY ROTATE UP TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS OR SO AND SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INDICATE THAT
READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1.2 - 1.4 OVER EASTERN LOCALES...1.4 -
1.6 OVER CENTRAL ZONES AND 1.6 - 1.7 OVER THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS OF
PIMA COUNTY.

THE LATEST CIRA LPW IMAGE SHOWS VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MEANWHILE PW`S
ARE ADVERTISED TO REMAIN AROUND THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE FOR CENTRAL
ZONES...WITH VALUES TO THE EAST A BIT LOWER IN THE 1.3 - 1.5 INCH
RANGE. OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS AND FARTHER WEST...VALUES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK ON WEDNESDAY.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS FIELD
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NOGALES TO TUCSON AND WESTWARD ACROSS ALL OF
PIMA COUNTY...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF
SANTA ROSA. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND INTO GRAHAM COUNTY.
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG STORM OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN...WITH THE
RUCKER CANYON GAUGE COLLECTING 1.85 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF/NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS HRRR...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD AND HIGH TEMPS ALSO
INCREASE AND REMAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES A
BIT AGAIN.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS
4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/23Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL THRU 29/06Z. BETWEEN 29/06Z AND
29/15Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT
AGL. AFT 29/15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
THRU 29/05Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT
29/18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

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