Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KTWC 041625
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND...AS IS TYPICAL FOR US ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH AND ALSO THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE 04/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING SHOWS A TEMPERATURE INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 4 DEGREES C
AT 700 MB AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALLUDED TO...THERE MAY BE A VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT
THE CENTURY MARK AT KTUS TODAY...BUT UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A BETTER
BET AT THIS TIME...MIGHT GET A LITTLE HELP FROM THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TODAY. SHOULD ALSO POP A FEW
CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
INTRUSION WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME GUSTY ESE/SE WINDS TO THE AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE MET
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELY/SELY AT
12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY
TODAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151...ALSO...A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAPID WARM-UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
TODAY. 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT
166.5DAM...ENOUGH TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT THE FIRST 100 AT
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL...BUT SOMETHING IN THE 97-99 RANGE IS MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MAY HELP PUSH THINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 THOUGH (WITH TIA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX THICKNESS CORE).

THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN WINDY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY. BLOWING DUST A CONCERN BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT OUR PART OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING 20 DEGREES
OR MORE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THE
BEST FOR OUR AREA...BUT WE MIGHT MANAGE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CUT OFF...SO IT WILL LINGER
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. WE`LL PICK UP THE FRONT
SIDE OF ANOTHER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ150-151.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

CARLAW
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 040940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID
WARM-UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES TODAY. 850-
700MB THICKNESS VALUES MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT
166.5DAM...ENOUGH TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT THE FIRST 100 AT TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL...BUT SOMETHING IN THE 97-99 RANGE IS MUCH MORE
LIKELY. THE GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY HELP
PUSH THINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 THOUGH (WITH TIA IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX THICKNESS CORE).

THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN WINDY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY. BLOWING DUST A CONCERN BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT OUR PART OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING 20 DEGREES
OR MORE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THE
BEST FOR OUR AREA...BUT WE MIGHT MANAGE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CUT OFF...SO IT WILL LINGER
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. WE`LL PICK UP THE FRONT
SIDE OF ANOTHER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BE ELY/SELY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY FROM THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE
COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151...ALSO...A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ151>153
&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 040410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW CUMULFORM CLOUDS JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN GREENLEE COUNTY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
04/00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WED DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION. THE EARLIER ONSET SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF SAFFORD...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE
04/00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO SHOULD THEN OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND PRONE LOCALES BY LATE WED MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL
HANDLED VIA THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE ELY/SELY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE
STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /223 PM MST/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL
BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW
MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE AZZ150-151

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





000
FXUS65 KTWC 032124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT
EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KSAD THRU
04/03Z...OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS/CLEAR SKIES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 04/06Z.
INCREASING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/06Z...WITH ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT
14-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BY 04/12Z...CONTINUING THRU 04/20Z.
DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD
FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150
AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031614
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING BY ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY
GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 73 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 56 DEGS. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN
AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY.
IT WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY. THIS WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100
AT TIA WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH
FIRE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031614
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING BY ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY
GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 73 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 56 DEGS. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN
AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY.
IT WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY. THIS WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100
AT TIA WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH
FIRE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031004
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN AN ENERGETIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY. IT WILL PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. THIS
WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100 AT TIA
WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH FIRE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

$$

&&

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 030433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS 4-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY. WARMER YET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
EVENING KICKED OFF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WHITES ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

AFTER THE RAMP-UP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEY COME
CRASHING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TURNING WINDIER ALSO WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/03Z.
SKC THRU PD...THOUGH A FEW CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL PSBL. SFC WINDS BCMG
LGT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN INTO TUE AM...THEN BCMG SW/NW TUE AFTN AT 8-
12 KTS WITH LCL GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO COCHISE COUNTY
AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EASILY
EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL.
THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 022158
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWED THIS SYSTEM ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS STORM ON THURSDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SKIES GENERALLY SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH FEW CLOUDS 8-12K FT
AGL POSSIBLE. MAINLY SWLY/NWLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
SWLY/NWLY AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO COCHISE COUNTY
AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EASILY
EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL.
THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY ZONE
     AZZ150-151

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DUE TO A TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWED THIS SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM ON
THURSDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY. THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SKC. ELY/SELY SFC WIND THIS MORNING AT 10-15 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR KSAD. SWLY/NWLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTINESS WEDNESDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DIRTY RIDGE (A FEW EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITH
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS) WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVERHEAD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING 8 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY). BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY...WHICH MEANS 90S FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

WE`RE SEEING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT MEANS A DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DECENT SPLIT OF ENERGY TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT FOR ARIZONA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOSING
SOME HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND
ASSOCIATED CONCERNS ABOUT BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS. EVEN WITH THE NORMALLY WETTER TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING...THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
STILL...THE CURRENT MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS FEEL A TAD UNDER-DONE FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DUE TO A TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWED THIS SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM ON
THURSDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY. THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SKC. ELY/SELY SFC WIND THIS MORNING AT 10-15 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR KSAD. SWLY/NWLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTINESS WEDNESDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DIRTY RIDGE (A FEW EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITH
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS) WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVERHEAD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING 8 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY). BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY...WHICH MEANS 90S FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

WE`RE SEEING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT MEANS A DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DECENT SPLIT OF ENERGY TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT FOR ARIZONA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOSING
SOME HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND
ASSOCIATED CONCERNS ABOUT BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS. EVEN WITH THE NORMALLY WETTER TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING...THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
STILL...THE CURRENT MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS FEEL A TAD UNDER-DONE FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DIRTY RIDGE (A FEW EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITH
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS) WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVERHEAD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING 8 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY). BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY...WHICH MEANS 90S FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

WE`RE SEEING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT MEANS A DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DECENT SPLIT OF ENERGY TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT FOR ARIZONA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOSING
SOME HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND
ASSOCIATED CONCERNS ABOUT BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS. EVEN WITH THE NORMALLY WETTER TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING...THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
STILL...THE CURRENT MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS FEEL A TAD UNDER-DONE FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS MORNING BECOMING SKC BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ELY/SELY SFC WIND THIS MORNING AT 10-15 KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR KSAD. SWLY/NWLY WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTINESS WEDNESDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

MEYER/FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 020423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES CLEARING OUT NICELY THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.  OF INTEREST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH RECENTLY PASSED
ACROSS SILVER CITY.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS UP ON THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT QUITE WELL.  PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE TO SET UP AN EASTERLY BREEZE FROM EAST TO WEST
OVERNIGHT ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON.  COULD SEE SOME OF THE
FAVORED AREAS (FOR EASTERLY WINDS) REACH 15 MPH OR SO AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES WESTERLY AS HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE.  WITH A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND PROXIMITY
TO THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH THERE STILL REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY.  OTHERWISE DRY AND A BIT WARMER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES PLACE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL BE GOOD
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY THE SETTLE BACK A BIT THURSDAY.

THE COOLING ON THURSDAY IS THE RESULT OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL SPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
GETTING RATHER WINDY FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLOWING DUST ISSUES ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
FRIDAY AND STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS THE STORM SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAY ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS HERE
AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCT 8-12K FT AGL THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA/-TSRA FOR THE WHITE MTNS.  N TO NW SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT BECOMING EASTERLY 10-15 KTS FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WEST TO TUCSON AFT 02/06Z.  WIND BECOMING LIGHT NW AGAIN
AFTER 02/20Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.  AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 012134
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
234 PM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS NORTH OF
TUCSON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO TRACK THROUGH THE STATE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. WIND PROBABILITIES DERIVED FROM THE
GEFS SUGGEST STRONG WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
MORE SO FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
SYSTEM WAS PROGGED TO ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
MAINLY BKN TO OCCASIONALLY OVC CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL WITH ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS THRU ABOUT 02/03Z.
THEREAFTER...CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASING AND BECOMING SCT 8-12K FT AGL
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED SLIGH CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR THE WHITE MTNS. SFC WIND WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG. SFC WIND DECREASING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. A FEW EASTERLY BREEZES
ON MONDAY OF 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUING ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities