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000
FXUS65 KTWC 182212
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO OCCUR THURSDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS ON TAP SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA MON WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES TUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO AROUND 130W. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY TUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WED AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE INTO WED NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...THE 18/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
A 558-559 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER FAR SWRN ARIZONA/EXTREME NWRN
SONORA MIDDAY THUR. THESE SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SIMILAR MOISTURE FIELDS
THUR AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR MAINLY
NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ARIZONA. HAVE NOTED
THAT THE 18/12Z CMC WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS THE GFS/ECMWF. THE
UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO FILL AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO NRN NEW
MEXICO BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE ONLY MADE VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUR GENERALLY NW OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-TUCSON-SELLS
LINE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THUR
NIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FRI
ABOVE 8000 FEET. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
OF GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRI BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/
ECMWF REGARDING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA
FRI NIGHT-SAT. THE ECMWF DEPICTED A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH TO BE OVER
SRN CALIFORNIA MIDDAY SAT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEPICTED A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM TO BE WELL SW OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. EITHER
SOLUTION MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS NEXT FRI NIGHT-SAT.

EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE SUN-MON...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
MON (THE WARMEST DAY) TO AVERAGE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-THUR...WITH HIGH TEMPS THUR TO BE
ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO RETURN SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL OVER THE WHITE MTNS THROUGH 19/04Z
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS WILL BE NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS THRU 19/02Z. SURFACE WIND ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. THEN A NEAR REPEAT IN THE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NW
WINDS 8-15 KTS DEVELOPING AFT 19/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR A SLIVER OF NE FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 FOR
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. ELEVATED RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD DESPITE THE STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152
    (THE PORTION INCLUDING SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND
     SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KTWC 182212
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 PM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO OCCUR THURSDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS TONIGHT
EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS ON TAP SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA MON WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES TUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WWD TO AROUND 130W. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY TUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WED AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE INTO WED NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...THE 18/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
A 558-559 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER FAR SWRN ARIZONA/EXTREME NWRN
SONORA MIDDAY THUR. THESE SOLUTIONS DEPICTED SIMILAR MOISTURE FIELDS
THUR AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP TO OCCUR MAINLY
NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ARIZONA. HAVE NOTED
THAT THE 18/12Z CMC WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS THE GFS/ECMWF. THE
UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO FILL AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO NRN NEW
MEXICO BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE ONLY MADE VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUR GENERALLY NW OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-TUCSON-SELLS
LINE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THUR
NIGHT. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BY DAYBREAK FRI
ABOVE 8000 FEET. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
OF GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRI BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/
ECMWF REGARDING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA
FRI NIGHT-SAT. THE ECMWF DEPICTED A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH TO BE OVER
SRN CALIFORNIA MIDDAY SAT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEPICTED A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM TO BE WELL SW OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. EITHER
SOLUTION MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS NEXT FRI NIGHT-SAT.

EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE SUN-MON...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
MON (THE WARMEST DAY) TO AVERAGE NEARLY 2-5 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-THUR...WITH HIGH TEMPS THUR TO BE
ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO RETURN SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL OVER THE WHITE MTNS THROUGH 19/04Z
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS WILL BE NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS THRU 19/02Z. SURFACE WIND ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. THEN A NEAR REPEAT IN THE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NW
WINDS 8-15 KTS DEVELOPING AFT 19/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR A SLIVER OF NE FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 FOR
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY STRONG SW WINDS TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. ELEVATED RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD DESPITE THE STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152
    (THE PORTION INCLUDING SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND
     SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 181550
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR SAFFORD AND OTHER LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY FROM SAFFORD NEWD
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID TEENS-
MID 20S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 15Z WERE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

18/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.34 INCH WAS 0.15
INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED
WARMING OF ABOUT 2-5 DEGS C IN THE SURFACE-400 MB LAYER. 18/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN COLORADO
AND A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST ADJACENT 130W. THERE WAS A
60 KT 300 MB SPEED MAX ANALYZED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

THE SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NERN SECTIONS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. THUS...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE ELSEWHERE TODAY. A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LESS WIND WILL THEN OCCUR SUN AS THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT LOOSENS. HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS SHOULD STILL HAPPEN SUN
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F WARMER
ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI. ADDITIONAL WARMING OF
ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WILL OCCUR SUN.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL FROM
VICINITY OF KSAD NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF KTUS WILL
BE NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THE
AREA MAINLY INCLUDES SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS
WIND WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RETURN OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING SOME
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TUCSON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MONDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS
CONCERNING ANOTHER STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
DOWN THE COAST AND TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BLEND OF THE TWO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID
SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH
OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF.
THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT
AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
    FOR AZZ152 (THE PORTION INCLUDING SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM
    COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 181550
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR SAFFORD AND OTHER LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY FROM SAFFORD NEWD
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID TEENS-
MID 20S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 15Z WERE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

18/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.34 INCH WAS 0.15
INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED
WARMING OF ABOUT 2-5 DEGS C IN THE SURFACE-400 MB LAYER. 18/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN COLORADO
AND A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST ADJACENT 130W. THERE WAS A
60 KT 300 MB SPEED MAX ANALYZED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

THE SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NERN SECTIONS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. THUS...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE ELSEWHERE TODAY. A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LESS WIND WILL THEN OCCUR SUN AS THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT LOOSENS. HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS SHOULD STILL HAPPEN SUN
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F WARMER
ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI. ADDITIONAL WARMING OF
ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WILL OCCUR SUN.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL FROM
VICINITY OF KSAD NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF KTUS WILL
BE NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THE
AREA MAINLY INCLUDES SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS
WIND WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RETURN OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING SOME
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TUCSON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MONDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS
CONCERNING ANOTHER STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
DOWN THE COAST AND TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BLEND OF THE TWO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID
SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH
OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF.
THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT
AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
    FOR AZZ152 (THE PORTION INCLUDING SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM
    COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER






000
FXUS65 KTWC 181550
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR SAFFORD AND OTHER LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY FROM SAFFORD NEWD
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID TEENS-
MID 20S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 15Z WERE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

18/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.34 INCH WAS 0.15
INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED
WARMING OF ABOUT 2-5 DEGS C IN THE SURFACE-400 MB LAYER. 18/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SERN COLORADO
AND A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST ADJACENT 130W. THERE WAS A
60 KT 300 MB SPEED MAX ANALYZED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.

THE SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS NERN SECTIONS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. THUS...EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE ELSEWHERE TODAY. A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF TUCSON THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LESS WIND WILL THEN OCCUR SUN AS THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT LOOSENS. HOWEVER...SOME GUSTS SHOULD STILL HAPPEN SUN
AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F WARMER
ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI. ADDITIONAL WARMING OF
ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WILL OCCUR SUN.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECKS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL FROM
VICINITY OF KSAD NEWD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF KTUS WILL
BE NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR A PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THE
AREA MAINLY INCLUDES SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
HOWEVER...RED FLAG CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS
WIND WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RETURN OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING SOME
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TUCSON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MONDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS
CONCERNING ANOTHER STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
DOWN THE COAST AND TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BLEND OF THE TWO WILL CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID
SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH
OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF.
THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER
CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT
AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
    FOR AZZ152 (THE PORTION INCLUDING SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM
    COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY).

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 180935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND SAFFORD AND FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL AS FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO TYPICAL
SEASONAL LEVELS. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TODAY AS WELL AS ORIENTATION
OF THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY SEE AN ENHANCED AND CHANNELED GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THERE. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS CONCERNING ANOTHER
STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE COAST AND
TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER
INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT
DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF. THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN
WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 INCLUDING EASTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR
     NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...INCLUDING
     SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
     COUNTY.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 180935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND SAFFORD AND FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL AS FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO TYPICAL
SEASONAL LEVELS. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TODAY AS WELL AS ORIENTATION
OF THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY SEE AN ENHANCED AND CHANNELED GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THERE. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS CONCERNING ANOTHER
STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE COAST AND
TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER
INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT
DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF. THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN
WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 INCLUDING EASTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR
     NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...INCLUDING
     SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
     COUNTY.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 180935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND SAFFORD AND FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL AS FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO TYPICAL
SEASONAL LEVELS. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TODAY AS WELL AS ORIENTATION
OF THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY SEE AN ENHANCED AND CHANNELED GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THERE. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS CONCERNING ANOTHER
STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE COAST AND
TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER
INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT
DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF. THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN
WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 INCLUDING EASTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR
     NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...INCLUDING
     SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
     COUNTY.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 180935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND SAFFORD AND FEW OTHER
LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND COOL WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL AS FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
LIFT OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO TYPICAL
SEASONAL LEVELS. PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TODAY AS WELL AS ORIENTATION
OF THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY SEE AN ENHANCED AND CHANNELED GRADIENT
THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THERE. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

A MODEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO START THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS RESOLUTIONS CONCERNING ANOTHER
STRONG SPLIT OF ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE COAST AND
TOWARD ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK VERY WELL WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT HAS SOME DRIER
INLAND CHARACTERISTICS AND JUST A TOUCH OF LOWER LATITUDE THAT
DOESN`T GO FAR OR SLOW ENOUGH TO CUT OFF. THIS ARGUES FOR A MAIN
WEATHER STORY OF WINDS OVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND NOT AS MUCH COOL AIR AS OUR MOST
RECENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 INCLUDING EASTERN
GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR
     NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...INCLUDING
     SAFFORD...EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE
     COUNTY.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 180331
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
831 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. JUST A FEW CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 13-18
KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE...SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LESS
WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST SE ARIZONA LOCATIONS. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SOME VALLEY LOCATION TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING...BUT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS TO COMMENCE NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEY ALL SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE AROUND THE LOW
OVER ALASKA AND DEEPEN INTO A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THE
TROUGH IS ABLE  TO SLIDE INTO ARIZONA. FROM THAT POINT...TROUGHING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

CURRENTLY INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN THAT IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.
THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. I SHOULD POINT OUT
THAT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE
UNDER THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. THE TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE FIRE
COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL GUSTINESS.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 172154
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST SE ARIZONA LOCATIONS. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW SOME VALLEY LOCATION TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS TO COMMENCE NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEY ALL SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE AROUND THE LOW
OVER ALASKA AND DEEPEN INTO A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THE
TROUGH IS ABLE  TO SLIDE INTO ARIZONA. FROM THAT POINT...TROUGHING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

CURRENTLY INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN THAT IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.
THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. I SHOULD POINT OUT
THAT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE
UNDER THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. THE TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE FIRE
COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL GUSTINESS.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 14 KTS AND A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 13-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE...SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LESS
WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW











000
FXUS65 KTWC 172154
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST SE ARIZONA LOCATIONS. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW SOME VALLEY LOCATION TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS TO COMMENCE NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEY ALL SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE AROUND THE LOW
OVER ALASKA AND DEEPEN INTO A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THE
TROUGH IS ABLE  TO SLIDE INTO ARIZONA. FROM THAT POINT...TROUGHING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

CURRENTLY INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN THAT IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.
THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. I SHOULD POINT OUT
THAT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE
UNDER THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. THE TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE FIRE
COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL GUSTINESS.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 14 KTS AND A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 13-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE...SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LESS
WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW











000
FXUS65 KTWC 172154
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST SE ARIZONA LOCATIONS. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW SOME VALLEY LOCATION TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS TO COMMENCE NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEY ALL SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE AROUND THE LOW
OVER ALASKA AND DEEPEN INTO A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THE
TROUGH IS ABLE  TO SLIDE INTO ARIZONA. FROM THAT POINT...TROUGHING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

CURRENTLY INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN THAT IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.
THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. I SHOULD POINT OUT
THAT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE
UNDER THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. THE TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE FIRE
COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL GUSTINESS.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 14 KTS AND A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 13-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE...SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LESS
WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW












000
FXUS65 KTWC 172154
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
253 PM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. SOME OF THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL APPROACH FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST SE ARIZONA LOCATIONS. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW SOME VALLEY LOCATION TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.

RISING HEIGHTS TO COMMENCE NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STEADY WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEY ALL SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE AROUND THE LOW
OVER ALASKA AND DEEPEN INTO A STRONGER WAVE THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...THE
TROUGH IS ABLE  TO SLIDE INTO ARIZONA. FROM THAT POINT...TROUGHING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWER SOLUTION.

CURRENTLY INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF GIVEN THAT IT MATCHES UP
WELL WITH SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.
THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. I SHOULD POINT OUT
THAT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE
UNDER THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. THE TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE FIRE
COMMUNITY OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL GUSTINESS.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE SKC FOR THE MOST
PART WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FT POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 14 KTS AND A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 22 KTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 18/16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
NWLY WINDS AT 12-16 KTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSAD WHERE SPEEDS OF 13-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 12-16 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE...SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. LESS
WIND IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW












000
FXUS65 KTWC 171559
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
849 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH A
FEW COLDEST LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK PLACE OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MULTIPLE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH FREEZING WITH A FEW HARD
FREEZE LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING JUST EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LEAVING SE ARIZONA IN THE WAKE WITH ENOUGH OF A
HEIGHT GRADIENT TO BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE...BUT HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATION WILL
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FREEZE...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS EXTREME AS LAST
NIGHT. SENSITIVE VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES...WILL BE AT RISK AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...THE
AIR WARMS UP UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENS SE ARIZONA
LATE NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AFTER A COLD MORNING
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD PICK UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LINING UP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
TOWARD FREEZING AND BELOW IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A LATE SEASON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZE IN MUCH OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW HARD FREEZE
LEVELS.

AS THE FILLING LOW LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS
WITH A RESULTING WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

THE BUSY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ADVERTISED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRACK IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION. THEY DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A DRIER INLAND TRAJECTORY AND THE ECMWF DEEPER...BUT THEY ARE IN
PHASE AND A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO WILL WORK VERY WELL FOR NOW.
NEXT THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW










000
FXUS65 KTWC 171559
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
849 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH A
FEW COLDEST LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK PLACE OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MULTIPLE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH FREEZING WITH A FEW HARD
FREEZE LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING JUST EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LEAVING SE ARIZONA IN THE WAKE WITH ENOUGH OF A
HEIGHT GRADIENT TO BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE...BUT HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATION WILL
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FREEZE...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS EXTREME AS LAST
NIGHT. SENSITIVE VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES...WILL BE AT RISK AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...THE
AIR WARMS UP UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENS SE ARIZONA
LATE NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AFTER A COLD MORNING
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD PICK UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LINING UP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
TOWARD FREEZING AND BELOW IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A LATE SEASON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZE IN MUCH OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW HARD FREEZE
LEVELS.

AS THE FILLING LOW LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS
WITH A RESULTING WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

THE BUSY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ADVERTISED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRACK IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION. THEY DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A DRIER INLAND TRAJECTORY AND THE ECMWF DEEPER...BUT THEY ARE IN
PHASE AND A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO WILL WORK VERY WELL FOR NOW.
NEXT THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW











000
FXUS65 KTWC 171559
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
849 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH A
FEW COLDEST LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK PLACE OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MULTIPLE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REACH FREEZING WITH A FEW HARD
FREEZE LOCATIONS AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING JUST EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LEAVING SE ARIZONA IN THE WAKE WITH ENOUGH OF A
HEIGHT GRADIENT TO BRING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE...BUT HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO SOME OF OUR VALLEY LOCATION WILL
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER FREEZE...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS EXTREME AS LAST
NIGHT. SENSITIVE VEGETATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTIES...WILL BE AT RISK AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...THE
AIR WARMS UP UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THREATENS SE ARIZONA
LATE NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AFTER A COLD MORNING
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD PICK UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LINING UP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
TOWARD FREEZING AND BELOW IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A LATE SEASON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZE IN MUCH OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW HARD FREEZE
LEVELS.

AS THE FILLING LOW LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS
WITH A RESULTING WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

THE BUSY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ADVERTISED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRACK IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION. THEY DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A DRIER INLAND TRAJECTORY AND THE ECMWF DEEPER...BUT THEY ARE IN
PHASE AND A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO WILL WORK VERY WELL FOR NOW.
NEXT THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW










000
FXUS65 KTWC 170938
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH A
FEW COLDEST LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TOWARD
FREEZING AND BELOW IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A LATE SEASON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZE IN MUCH OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW HARD FREEZE
LEVELS.

AS THE FILLING LOW LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS
WITH A RESULTING WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

THE BUSY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ADVERTISED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRACK IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION. THEY DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A DRIER INLAND TRAJECTORY AND THE ECMWF DEEPER...BUT THEY ARE IN
PHASE AND A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO WILL WORK VERY WELL FOR NOW.
NEXT THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AFTER A COLD MORNING
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD PICK UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LINING UP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW








000
FXUS65 KTWC 170938
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH A
FEW COLDEST LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TOWARD
FREEZING AND BELOW IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A LATE SEASON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FREEZE IN MUCH OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
WITH SEVERAL OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW HARD FREEZE
LEVELS.

AS THE FILLING LOW LIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS
WITH A RESULTING WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
SEE BREEZY SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINS MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR FREEZING EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.

THE BUSY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA ADVERTISED BY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TO TRACK IN OUR
GENERAL DIRECTION. THEY DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
A DRIER INLAND TRAJECTORY AND THE ECMWF DEEPER...BUT THEY ARE IN
PHASE AND A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO WILL WORK VERY WELL FOR NOW.
NEXT THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
REMAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO AFTER A COLD MORNING
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY
AREA INCLUDING SAFFORD PICK UP TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS ONCE
AGAIN. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LINING UP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW







000
FXUS65 KTWC 170435
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 17/04Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND THE 17/00Z
KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.16 INCH REFLECTED THE
VERY DRY REGIME. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8
AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN COCHISE/GREENLEE/
GRAHAM/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE FREEZING
TEMPS LATER TONIGHT. 17/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS NOTION. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNPWTWC /WMO
HEADER WWUS 75 KTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE
NEWD INTO SE COLORADO FRI AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA FRI. HOWEVER...SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS
SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS FRI IN RESPONSE TO RISING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO FRIDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF
KSAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE EAST OF
KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN DESERTS. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 PM MST/...OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 170435
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 17/04Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND THE 17/00Z
KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.16 INCH REFLECTED THE
VERY DRY REGIME. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8
AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN COCHISE/GREENLEE/
GRAHAM/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE FREEZING
TEMPS LATER TONIGHT. 17/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS NOTION. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNPWTWC /WMO
HEADER WWUS 75 KTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE
NEWD INTO SE COLORADO FRI AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA FRI. HOWEVER...SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS
SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS FRI IN RESPONSE TO RISING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO FRIDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF
KSAD ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE EAST OF
KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS EAST OF TUCSON DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 MPH. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN DESERTS. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 PM MST/...OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 162138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS
EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINING IN THE CLEAR.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CREATING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST VALUES IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. IN FACT...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AFFECTED AREAS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AREA-WIDE WITH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM KTUS WEST WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE
KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT NWLY WINDS
FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA VALLEY
INCLUDING KSAD...WHERE SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 17/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF ZONE 152 INCLUDING THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN COCHISE COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AREA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH THE GILA VALLEY
MAY STILL SEE NWLY WINDS OF 12-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 162138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS
EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINING IN THE CLEAR.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CREATING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST VALUES IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. IN FACT...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AFFECTED AREAS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AREA-WIDE WITH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM KTUS WEST WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE
KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT NWLY WINDS
FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA VALLEY
INCLUDING KSAD...WHERE SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 17/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF ZONE 152 INCLUDING THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN COCHISE COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AREA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH THE GILA VALLEY
MAY STILL SEE NWLY WINDS OF 12-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 162138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS
EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINING IN THE CLEAR.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CREATING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST VALUES IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. IN FACT...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AFFECTED AREAS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AREA-WIDE WITH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM KTUS WEST WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE
KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT NWLY WINDS
FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA VALLEY
INCLUDING KSAD...WHERE SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 17/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF ZONE 152 INCLUDING THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN COCHISE COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AREA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH THE GILA VALLEY
MAY STILL SEE NWLY WINDS OF 12-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 162138
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS
EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN IMPRESSIVE SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINING IN THE CLEAR.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW CREATING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO GUSTY
WINDS IN PORTIONS OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WINDS SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST VALUES IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. IN FACT...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AFFECTED AREAS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKC AREA-WIDE WITH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 12-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM KTUS WEST WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. NEAR THE
KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT NWLY WINDS
FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA VALLEY
INCLUDING KSAD...WHERE SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFT 17/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF ZONE 152 INCLUDING THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS IN COCHISE COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AREA-WIDE...ALTHOUGH THE GILA VALLEY
MAY STILL SEE NWLY WINDS OF 12-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 161715
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN US HAS SETTLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
BROAD NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE MORNING SOUNDING IN TUCSON INDICATED A VERY DRY AIR
COLUMN WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AT OR ABOVE 8500 FEET.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
GREENLEE...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND CLEAR
SKIES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. READINGS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER VALLEY AREAS
OF GRAHAM...COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. AGRICULTURE
INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD/COOL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.

MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND REIGN SUPREME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC AREA-WIDE
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLY AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASING AGAIN AFT
16/18Z MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE
ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FROM KTUS WEST. NEAR THE KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS
WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 152 FROM 1100
LST THIS MORNING UNTIL 1900 LST THIS EVENING. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT
THE GREATEST RISK DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE TODAY...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH FAR
LESS WIND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A
VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 161715
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN US HAS SETTLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
BROAD NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE MORNING SOUNDING IN TUCSON INDICATED A VERY DRY AIR
COLUMN WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AT OR ABOVE 8500 FEET.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
GREENLEE...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND CLEAR
SKIES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. READINGS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER VALLEY AREAS
OF GRAHAM...COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. AGRICULTURE
INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD/COOL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.

MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND REIGN SUPREME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC AREA-WIDE
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLY AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASING AGAIN AFT
16/18Z MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE
ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FROM KTUS WEST. NEAR THE KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS
WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 152 FROM 1100
LST THIS MORNING UNTIL 1900 LST THIS EVENING. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT
THE GREATEST RISK DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE TODAY...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH FAR
LESS WIND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A
VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 161715
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN US HAS SETTLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
BROAD NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE MORNING SOUNDING IN TUCSON INDICATED A VERY DRY AIR
COLUMN WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AT OR ABOVE 8500 FEET.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
GREENLEE...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND CLEAR
SKIES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. READINGS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER VALLEY AREAS
OF GRAHAM...COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. AGRICULTURE
INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD/COOL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.

MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND REIGN SUPREME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC AREA-WIDE
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLY AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASING AGAIN AFT
16/18Z MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE
ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FROM KTUS WEST. NEAR THE KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS
WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 152 FROM 1100
LST THIS MORNING UNTIL 1900 LST THIS EVENING. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT
THE GREATEST RISK DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE TODAY...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH FAR
LESS WIND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A
VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 161511
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
811 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 152. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER END CRITERIA IN THE
WARNED AREA WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING
IN THE TEENS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT THE GREATEST RISK
DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW CRITERIA
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH FAR LESS WIND EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14
IN THE PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANTIN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 161511
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
811 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 152. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER END CRITERIA IN THE
WARNED AREA WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO
AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING
IN THE TEENS FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT THE GREATEST RISK
DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL BELOW CRITERIA
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH FAR LESS WIND EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14
IN THE PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE
DIGIT DEW POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANTIN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 160944
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14 IN THE
PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE DIGIT DEW
POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER










000
FXUS65 KTWC 160944
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14 IN THE
PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE DIGIT DEW
POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER










000
FXUS65 KTWC 160944
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14 IN THE
PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE DIGIT DEW
POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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MEYER









000
FXUS65 KTWC 160944
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DOUGLAS WINDS ARE NOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR DEW POINT DROPPING FROM 25 TO 14 IN THE
PAST HOUR. QUITE DRY WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SINGLE DIGIT DEW
POINTS OR LOWER.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 12 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH MANY
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN AREAS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
EARLY MARCH. THIS WILL INCLUDE A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR MANY OF THE
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO OF THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
TOUCH HARD FREEZE LEVELS AROUND 26 TO 28 DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING
IS BEING ISSUED FOR AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE. DRY AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOCALLY BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FILLING LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF
THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD OUR GENERAL DIRECTION FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

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MEYER









000
FXUS65 KTWC 160453
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MUCH
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NW OF A SAFFORD-TUCSON-ORGAN PIPE LINE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16/04Z WERE STILL AROUND 30 DEGS F ACROSS FAR SERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING DOUGLAS. WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH FROM TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. HOWEVER...WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THRU THURSDAY. THE
VERY DRY REGIME WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON THUR. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL BE FRI...WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THUR...WITH HIGH
TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 10 DEGS F OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LESS WIND WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS
THUR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FINALLY...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 16/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
INDICATE FREEZING TEMPS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY FRI
MORNING FOR KDUG. MEANWHILE...THESE GUIDANCE TEMPS KEEP KSAD JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THUR NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE
THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE COLDEST ERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND 16/09Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS EWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...WILL GO BACK
TO A DRY REGIME WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME OCCASIONAL PASSING
CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 160453
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MUCH
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NW OF A SAFFORD-TUCSON-ORGAN PIPE LINE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16/04Z WERE STILL AROUND 30 DEGS F ACROSS FAR SERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING DOUGLAS. WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH FROM TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. HOWEVER...WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THRU THURSDAY. THE
VERY DRY REGIME WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON THUR. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL BE FRI...WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THUR...WITH HIGH
TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 10 DEGS F OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LESS WIND WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS
THUR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FINALLY...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 16/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
INDICATE FREEZING TEMPS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY FRI
MORNING FOR KDUG. MEANWHILE...THESE GUIDANCE TEMPS KEEP KSAD JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THUR NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE
THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE COLDEST ERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND 16/09Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS EWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...WILL GO BACK
TO A DRY REGIME WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME OCCASIONAL PASSING
CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN/FRENCH






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