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000
FXUS65 KTWC 202220
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS 590 DM HIGH ROUGHLY
OVER SW TEXAS AND A CUTOFF LOW HUGGING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
ACTING TO KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A BASICALLY
UNCHANGED PWAT VALUE FROM 12 AND 24 HOURS AGO OF 1.63 INCHES...WHICH
IS A LITTLE LESS THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 24-HR
COOLING BETWEEN THE 600 AND 500 MB LAYER OF ABOUT 3C...COMBINED WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HAS RESULTED IN DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 1.5-2 IN/HR. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE BRUNT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINING NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA...ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT UOFA WRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF RUNS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION
ON WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. WE SHOULD STILL HOLD ON TO
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK
TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS AT THIS POINT...BUT
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
PROLIFIC AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA NORTH-TO-EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 202220
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS 590 DM HIGH ROUGHLY
OVER SW TEXAS AND A CUTOFF LOW HUGGING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
ACTING TO KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A BASICALLY
UNCHANGED PWAT VALUE FROM 12 AND 24 HOURS AGO OF 1.63 INCHES...WHICH
IS A LITTLE LESS THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 24-HR
COOLING BETWEEN THE 600 AND 500 MB LAYER OF ABOUT 3C...COMBINED WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HAS RESULTED IN DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 1.5-2 IN/HR. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE BRUNT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINING NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA...ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT UOFA WRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF RUNS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION
ON WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. WE SHOULD STILL HOLD ON TO
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK
TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS AT THIS POINT...BUT
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
PROLIFIC AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA NORTH-TO-EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201628
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR GREEN VALLEY SWD ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND FAR SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY AT 1605Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES
AT THIS TIME. IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NICELY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-6 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER WAS 1.63 INCHES...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTED WITH LIFTED INDEX
OF MINUS 6...AND UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2981 J/KG. 20/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS NWWD
INTO UTAH...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SLY TO ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
SE AZ...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ABOVE 400 MB.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 20/12Z NAM/GFS AND 20/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SE
AZ INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON NWD WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER FOR LOCALES
SOUTH OF TUCSON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS ON TAP MAINLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PRODUCE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 201628
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR GREEN VALLEY SWD ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND FAR SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY AT 1605Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES
AT THIS TIME. IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NICELY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-6 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER WAS 1.63 INCHES...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTED WITH LIFTED INDEX
OF MINUS 6...AND UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2981 J/KG. 20/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS NWWD
INTO UTAH...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SLY TO ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
SE AZ...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ABOVE 400 MB.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 20/12Z NAM/GFS AND 20/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SE
AZ INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON NWD WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER FOR LOCALES
SOUTH OF TUCSON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS ON TAP MAINLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PRODUCE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 192104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARIZONA BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS
MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING
WHICH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WAS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. I INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST FROM WHAT I INHERITED THIS MORNING AND SO FAR
THIS SEEMS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO
WHAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF MODELS WERE SUGGESTING AS
WELL.

POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE A NEARLY
CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND SCATTERED TYPE POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY
AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PSBL IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 190421
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
SWRN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA AT THIS TIME.
OTHER ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES WERE NEAR KITT PEAK. THE REST OF SE
AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID 0420Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

HAVE NOTED THE LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SE AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT VIA THE 19/00Z NAM. BASED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR TRENDS...AM HIGHLY SUSPECT OF THE LARGE QPF/S AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NAM. THUS...THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-
MORNING FRI FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THERE
IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE
AZ FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW HOURS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS
VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AT THAT TIME RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 190421
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
SWRN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA AT THIS TIME.
OTHER ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES WERE NEAR KITT PEAK. THE REST OF SE
AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID 0420Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

HAVE NOTED THE LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SE AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT VIA THE 19/00Z NAM. BASED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR TRENDS...AM HIGHLY SUSPECT OF THE LARGE QPF/S AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NAM. THUS...THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-
MORNING FRI FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THERE
IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE
AZ FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW HOURS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS
VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AT THAT TIME RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 182109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST
METARS AROUND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE SINCE IMPROVED.

RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY
EAST. SOME SUN IS TRYING TO PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND
SANTA CRUZ. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER THROUGH 430 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA
CRUZ RIVER FOR PIMA COUNTY. THE WATER LEVELS WILL BE BELOW BANKFULL
AS IT FLOWS THROUGH PIMA COUNTY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
2 AM MST FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SAN
PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON THROUGH 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS CONTINUED
ROAD FLOODING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES FOR
MAINLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL
RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THIS EVENING AND EVEN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NOT AN ISSUE BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESSER CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 182109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
208 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST
METARS AROUND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE SINCE IMPROVED.

RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY
EAST. SOME SUN IS TRYING TO PEEK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AT THAT TIME
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND
SANTA CRUZ. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER THROUGH 430 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA
CRUZ RIVER FOR PIMA COUNTY. THE WATER LEVELS WILL BE BELOW BANKFULL
AS IT FLOWS THROUGH PIMA COUNTY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
2 AM MST FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SAN
PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON THROUGH 415 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS CONTINUED
ROAD FLOODING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES FOR
MAINLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL
RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THIS EVENING AND EVEN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NOT AN ISSUE BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE SUN COMPARED TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LESSER CHANCES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 181615
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST METARS AROUND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON AREA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE 18/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OF 1.94 INCHES. THAT SAID...INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OUR WAY. SO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BASE MY
AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEAVILY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA
CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SANTA CRUZ COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER AS WELL AS FOR
THE SAN PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON. ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN
STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS SOME ROAD FLOODING IN MAINLY PORTIONS
OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS
PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH A FEW
PLACES EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEST AND CENTRAL AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...GREENLEE...AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GRAHAM COUNTY. ONGOING AND EXPECTED WASH AND
MAIN STEM FLOODING WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PIMA AND AREAS OF PINAL COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 1 AND
1.6 INCHES. AS FAR AS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE MOUNTAINS SAW THE
MOST WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES...BUT MUCH LOWER VALUES
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

REMNANT OF LOW LEVEL ODILE CIRCULATION NOW PUSHING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN STILL ONGOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. EXTENSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HARDEST
HIT LOCATIONS.

WE WILL RECIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HANGING
ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON POLO CURRENTLY
STILL WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS POINT HE DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 181615
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST METARS AROUND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON AREA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE 18/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OF 1.94 INCHES. THAT SAID...INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OUR WAY. SO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BASE MY
AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEAVILY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA
CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SANTA CRUZ COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER AS WELL AS FOR
THE SAN PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON. ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN
STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS SOME ROAD FLOODING IN MAINLY PORTIONS
OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS
PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH A FEW
PLACES EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEST AND CENTRAL AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...GREENLEE...AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GRAHAM COUNTY. ONGOING AND EXPECTED WASH AND
MAIN STEM FLOODING WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PIMA AND AREAS OF PINAL COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 1 AND
1.6 INCHES. AS FAR AS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE MOUNTAINS SAW THE
MOST WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES...BUT MUCH LOWER VALUES
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

REMNANT OF LOW LEVEL ODILE CIRCULATION NOW PUSHING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN STILL ONGOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. EXTENSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HARDEST
HIT LOCATIONS.

WE WILL RECIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HANGING
ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON POLO CURRENTLY
STILL WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS POINT HE DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 181017
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...GREENLEE...AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF GRAHAM COUNTY. ONGOING AND EXPECTED WASH AND MAIN
STEM FLOODING WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PIMA AND AREAS OF PINAL COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 1 AND 1.6
INCHES. AS FAR AS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE MOUNTAINS SAW THE MOST
WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES...BUT MUCH LOWER VALUES IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

REMNANT OF LOW LEVEL ODILE CIRCULATION NOW PUSHING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN STILL ONGOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. EXTENSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HARDEST
HIT LOCATIONS.

WE WILL RECIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HANGING
ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON POLO CURRENTLY
STILL WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS POINT HE DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO AND SANTA CRUZ AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER AS WELL AS FOR THE SAN
PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON. IN ADDITION...THE GILA RIVER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH BANKFULL AT CLIFTON. ALSO...EXPECT
HEAVY FLOW IN STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS SOME ROAD FLOODING IN
MAINLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL
RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/10Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503-507>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 180441
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 30-50 DBZ ECHOES FROM
JUST SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE ECHOES ARE COINCIDENT
WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AS DEPICTED VIA IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VIA KEMX WSR-88D AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS JUST
SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES. TRAINING ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY...INCLUDING NOGALES...AS WELL AS SWRN COCHISE COUNTY...DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS ENHANCED-V SATELLITE
SIGNATURE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS PRIMARILY SEVERAL RUC
HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE REDUCED POPS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THUR. HAVE
ALSO ELIMINATED PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM TUCSON WWD...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR
LOCALES EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THUR. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. HAVE ALSO INSERTED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR ERN
PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING TUCSON. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST-TO-EAST BY THUR NIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO
AND SANTA CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS THE GILA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
BANKFULL OR EVEN FLOOD STAGE. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE
REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY STARTING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. BY
THAT TIME...LINGERING MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503-507>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
HYDROLOGY...BOYLE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 180441
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 30-50 DBZ ECHOES FROM
JUST SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE ECHOES ARE COINCIDENT
WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AS DEPICTED VIA IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VIA KEMX WSR-88D AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS JUST
SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES. TRAINING ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY...INCLUDING NOGALES...AS WELL AS SWRN COCHISE COUNTY...DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS ENHANCED-V SATELLITE
SIGNATURE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS PRIMARILY SEVERAL RUC
HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE REDUCED POPS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THUR. HAVE
ALSO ELIMINATED PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM TUCSON WWD...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR
LOCALES EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THUR. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. HAVE ALSO INSERTED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR ERN
PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING TUCSON. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST-TO-EAST BY THUR NIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO
AND SANTA CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS THE GILA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
BANKFULL OR EVEN FLOOD STAGE. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE
REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY STARTING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. BY
THAT TIME...LINGERING MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503-507>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
HYDROLOGY...BOYLE






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