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000
FXUS65 KTWC 041027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS TO TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN. AS KEVIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WNW AND WEAKENS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORM
 ACTIVITY AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. MAINLY CONCERN
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LESS ACTIVE OF THE TWO
DAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY SE KTUS THRU 04/18Z. AFTER 04/18Z SCTD -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA WITH MVFR CONDS AND LCL IFR CONDS NR STRONGER TSRA.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 041027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS TO TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN. AS KEVIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WNW AND WEAKENS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORM
 ACTIVITY AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. MAINLY CONCERN
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LESS ACTIVE OF THE TWO
DAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY SE KTUS THRU 04/18Z. AFTER 04/18Z SCTD -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA WITH MVFR CONDS AND LCL IFR CONDS NR STRONGER TSRA.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 041027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS TO TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN. AS KEVIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WNW AND WEAKENS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORM
 ACTIVITY AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. MAINLY CONCERN
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LESS ACTIVE OF THE TWO
DAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY SE KTUS THRU 04/18Z. AFTER 04/18Z SCTD -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA WITH MVFR CONDS AND LCL IFR CONDS NR STRONGER TSRA.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 041027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS TO TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN. AS KEVIN CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WNW AND WEAKENS THIS
WEEKEND...EXPECT THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO ENHANCE STORM
 ACTIVITY AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS. MAINLY CONCERN
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE LESS ACTIVE OF THE TWO
DAYS.

WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY SE KTUS THRU 04/18Z. AFTER 04/18Z SCTD -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA WITH MVFR CONDS AND LCL IFR CONDS NR STRONGER TSRA.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 040458
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING ACROSS SE ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST HOUR AS PER THE KOLS
METARS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 04/00Z NAM12 AND
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z FRIDAY FOR ERN PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 04/00Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM SUGGESTS MARKEDLY
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT VISIBILITIES REDUCED AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL THRU AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERHAPS TO AROUND 3SM AT
KTUS THRU 15Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END
SCATTERED POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 040458
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING ACROSS SE ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST HOUR AS PER THE KOLS
METARS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 04/00Z NAM12 AND
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z FRIDAY FOR ERN PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 04/00Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM SUGGESTS MARKEDLY
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT VISIBILITIES REDUCED AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL THRU AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERHAPS TO AROUND 3SM AT
KTUS THRU 15Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END
SCATTERED POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 040458
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING ACROSS SE ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST HOUR AS PER THE KOLS
METARS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 04/00Z NAM12 AND
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z FRIDAY FOR ERN PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 04/00Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM SUGGESTS MARKEDLY
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT VISIBILITIES REDUCED AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL THRU AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERHAPS TO AROUND 3SM AT
KTUS THRU 15Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END
SCATTERED POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 040458
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING ACROSS SE ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN GRAHAM COUNTY. OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.
PATCHY FOG HAD DEVELOPED DURING ABOUT THE PAST HOUR AS PER THE KOLS
METARS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 04/00Z NAM12 AND
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z FRIDAY FOR ERN PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 04/00Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM SUGGESTS MARKEDLY
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS VERSUS TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS FRI ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT VISIBILITIES REDUCED AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS TERMINAL THRU AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES PERHAPS TO AROUND 3SM AT
KTUS THRU 15Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END
SCATTERED POP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 032144
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION STARTED EARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN
PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTIES BETWEEN 6-9 AM MST. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND KITT
PEAK. THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WAS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

A STRONGER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN SONORA EARLY THIS MORNING INITIATED
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL SONORA EARLIER TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED 75-100 MILES S/SW OF NOGALES. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE WELL
WITH EXTREMELY HIGH POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WET MICROBURST/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ON THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES FORECASTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END SCATTERED POP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
SCT-NUM TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU 04/06Z WITH SCT
-SHRA FROM 04/06Z UNTIL 04/12Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KTUS/KOLS LINE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 04/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 032144
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION STARTED EARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN
PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTIES BETWEEN 6-9 AM MST. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND KITT
PEAK. THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WAS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

A STRONGER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN SONORA EARLY THIS MORNING INITIATED
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL SONORA EARLIER TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED 75-100 MILES S/SW OF NOGALES. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE WELL
WITH EXTREMELY HIGH POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WET MICROBURST/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ON THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES FORECASTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END SCATTERED POP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
SCT-NUM TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU 04/06Z WITH SCT
-SHRA FROM 04/06Z UNTIL 04/12Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KTUS/KOLS LINE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 04/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 032144
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION STARTED EARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN
PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTIES BETWEEN 6-9 AM MST. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND KITT
PEAK. THIS EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WAS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

A STRONGER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN SONORA EARLY THIS MORNING INITIATED
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL SONORA EARLIER TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED 75-100 MILES S/SW OF NOGALES. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES LOCKED ONTO THIS FEATURE WELL
WITH EXTREMELY HIGH POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE TRENDING
DOWNWARD EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WET MICROBURST/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAVE RAISED
POPS CONSIDERABLY ON THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA OFF OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES FORECASTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH END SCATTERED POP
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FALLING BACK INTO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. READINGS
WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
SCT-NUM TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU 04/06Z WITH SCT
-SHRA FROM 04/06Z UNTIL 04/12Z GENERALLY EAST OF A KTUS/KOLS LINE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 04/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO
OVER 50 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN AND MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 031515
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
815 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING
NORTHEAST FROM WEST OF BAJA/TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 15Z DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER FAR WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY...WHERE VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WITH A PW
VALUE OF 1.51 INCHES. KEMX RADAR ALREADY INDICATING LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS (MAINLY LESS THAN 45DBZ) EXTENDING FROM ARIVACA...TO
BENSON...TO SUNIZONA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED OVER
FAR EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF ELGIN. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH POP POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY/TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ONE SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES ACROSS
NORTHERN SONORA...WITH THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE. THE OTHER IMPULSE WAS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SONORA...WITH MORE IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE. ONGOING FORECAST TODAY FOR MORE CLOUDS...COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON TRACK. NO UPDATES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...PLEASE
REFER TO THE PREV DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LEADING
TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM
DAY AS LARGE SCALE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF KEVIN WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND
ANY POTENTIAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW.

THE FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE
CONUS NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY THIS POINT KEVIN WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ZONE. STILL SOME STORMS AROUND BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY (PENDING ANY MORE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT WE
AREN`T PICKING UP YET).

GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PICKING UP ON A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
(STILL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST)...AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. WE`LL
PUSH THE FORECAST BACK INTO A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
THAT. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO A BLOCKING POSITION
SOUTH OF US WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOMINATES
THE COUNTRY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHUT
THINGS DOWN AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT`S SEPTEMBER SO WE`LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS. THERE`S ALREADY ANOTHER AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031020
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL THEN KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SANTA
CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONG
STORMS THAT STARTED UP EARLY IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
SONORA PUSHED SOME THICK ANVILS OVER CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY. WE ALSO HAD SOME TEMPORARY LOW LEVEL DRYING THROUGH
AREAS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WITH
EVEN THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING DOWN TO ABOUT 1.1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

FOR TODAY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA WILL
DIG A LITTLE DEEPER WITH A GENERAL WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF US. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-3 KTS BETWEEN H4-H7. OUR
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING THIS MORNING BUT THE HRRR
SHOWS INCREASING TRENDS IN LOWER LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE DAY.
ALSO...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LONG AND DEEP
FETCH FROM THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NEWLY MINTED TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN (ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA) WILL PUSH UP INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUD WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY...AND OUR DAYTIME HIGH SHOULD END
UP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A BUSY DAY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / POTENTIAL DUST IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...BUT IT ISN`T A SLAM DUNK. RIGHT NOW WE ARE COMFORTABLE
WITH AN AGGRESSIVE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DAY
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH 06Z DATA AND THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING CLOSELY FOR MORE CLUES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY AS LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH FROM THE
VICINITY OF KEVIN WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND ANY POTENTIAL
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW.

THE FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE
CONUS NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY THIS POINT KEVIN WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ZONE. STILL SOME STORMS AROUND BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY (PENDING ANY MORE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT WE
AREN`T PICKING UP YET).

GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PICKING UP ON A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
(STILL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST)...AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. WE`LL
PUSH THE FORECAST BACK INTO A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
THAT. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO A BLOCKING POSITION
SOUTH OF US WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOMINATES
THE COUNTRY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHUT
THINGS DOWN AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT`S SEPTEMBER SO WE`LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS. THERE`S ALREADY ANOTHER AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LEADING
TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031020
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL THEN KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SANTA
CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONG
STORMS THAT STARTED UP EARLY IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
SONORA PUSHED SOME THICK ANVILS OVER CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY. WE ALSO HAD SOME TEMPORARY LOW LEVEL DRYING THROUGH
AREAS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WITH
EVEN THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING DOWN TO ABOUT 1.1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

FOR TODAY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA WILL
DIG A LITTLE DEEPER WITH A GENERAL WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF US. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-3 KTS BETWEEN H4-H7. OUR
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING THIS MORNING BUT THE HRRR
SHOWS INCREASING TRENDS IN LOWER LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE DAY.
ALSO...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LONG AND DEEP
FETCH FROM THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NEWLY MINTED TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN (ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA) WILL PUSH UP INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUD WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY...AND OUR DAYTIME HIGH SHOULD END
UP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A BUSY DAY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / POTENTIAL DUST IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...BUT IT ISN`T A SLAM DUNK. RIGHT NOW WE ARE COMFORTABLE
WITH AN AGGRESSIVE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DAY
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH 06Z DATA AND THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING CLOSELY FOR MORE CLUES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY AS LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH FROM THE
VICINITY OF KEVIN WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND ANY POTENTIAL
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW.

THE FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE
CONUS NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY THIS POINT KEVIN WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ZONE. STILL SOME STORMS AROUND BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY (PENDING ANY MORE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT WE
AREN`T PICKING UP YET).

GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PICKING UP ON A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
(STILL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST)...AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. WE`LL
PUSH THE FORECAST BACK INTO A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
THAT. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO A BLOCKING POSITION
SOUTH OF US WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOMINATES
THE COUNTRY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHUT
THINGS DOWN AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT`S SEPTEMBER SO WE`LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS. THERE`S ALREADY ANOTHER AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LEADING
TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 031020
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL THEN KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FAVORING AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER
CHANCES WEST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SANTA
CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONG
STORMS THAT STARTED UP EARLY IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
SONORA PUSHED SOME THICK ANVILS OVER CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY. WE ALSO HAD SOME TEMPORARY LOW LEVEL DRYING THROUGH
AREAS OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...WITH
EVEN THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING DOWN TO ABOUT 1.1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

FOR TODAY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA WILL
DIG A LITTLE DEEPER WITH A GENERAL WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF US. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROBABLY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-3 KTS BETWEEN H4-H7. OUR
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING THIS MORNING BUT THE HRRR
SHOWS INCREASING TRENDS IN LOWER LEVELS AGAIN DURING THE DAY.
ALSO...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LONG AND DEEP
FETCH FROM THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NEWLY MINTED TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN (ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA) WILL PUSH UP INTO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUD WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY...AND OUR DAYTIME HIGH SHOULD END
UP SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A BUSY DAY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CONCERNS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / POTENTIAL DUST IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...BUT IT ISN`T A SLAM DUNK. RIGHT NOW WE ARE COMFORTABLE
WITH AN AGGRESSIVE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DAY
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH 06Z DATA AND THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING CLOSELY FOR MORE CLUES.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY AS LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH FROM THE
VICINITY OF KEVIN WILL KEEP MOISTURE COMING IN AND ANY POTENTIAL
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW.

THE FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE
CONUS NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY THIS POINT KEVIN WILL STILL BE SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ZONE. STILL SOME STORMS AROUND BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
TODAY AND FRIDAY (PENDING ANY MORE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW THAT WE
AREN`T PICKING UP YET).

GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH PICKING UP ON A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
(STILL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST)...AND INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. WE`LL
PUSH THE FORECAST BACK INTO A SOLID AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
THAT. AFTER THAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO A BLOCKING POSITION
SOUTH OF US WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MEAN TROUGH POSITION DOMINATES
THE COUNTRY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF US. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHUT
THINGS DOWN AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT`S SEPTEMBER SO WE`LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS. THERE`S ALREADY ANOTHER AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA
WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND LEADING
TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 030450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WITH LESSER CHANCES
WEST OF TUCSON. EXPECT REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY. THIS FORECAST AREA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID
0445Z AS PER KEMX WSR-88D. HOWEVER...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WAS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NERN SONORA MEXICO...AND CLOUD TOPS WERE
COOLING ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THIS RELATIVELY SMALL MCS.

BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENS AS WELL AS THE 03/00Z NAM12 AND
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE REST OF TONIGHT. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.

HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR SOLUTIONS AND
THE NAM12 REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THUR MORNING. THE
HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY LATER TONIGHT...ESSENTIALLY AROUND 10Z...THEN
EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NWWD INTO ERN PIMA/SE PINAL
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK THUR.

MEANWHILE...THE NAM12 DEPICTED MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT MAINLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY AND NERN PIMA
COUNTY. THEREAFTER...THE NAM12 DEPICTED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE THUR MORNING...THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY SE OF
TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THUR MORNING...THEN
AT LEAST CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPS THUR ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SE OF KTUS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KDUG TERMINAL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 8-15K FT AGL
AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LEAST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 WEST
TO NORTHWEST OF TUCSON. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL
LEAD TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /135 PM MST/...THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON
ITS WAY TO AFFECT THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A
FEW HOURS LATER THAN TODAYS PUTTING THE FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO RESET THE
ATMOSPHERE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS.

BEYOND THAT WE STILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE ISN/T QUITE AS HIGH. COULD/SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME
DISTURBANCES IN THAT FLOW TO HELP CONVECTION AT TIMES ALTHOUGH TOO
EARLY TO TRY TO CAPTURE AND TIME THOSE. THROUGH OUT THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME...DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THEN BOTH THE GFS (WHICH PICKED THIS WHOLE SCENARIO UP WELL THUS
FAR) AND THE ECMWF INDICATED A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE UP THROUGH HERE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE DETAILS
DIFFER...HOWEVER WITH BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR IDEA THIS FAR OUT IT
NEEDS TO BE NOTED. IF IT WERE TO COME TO PASS IT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. THEN BEYOND THAT THE TREND
IS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 022032
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRED UP ON SCHEDULE WITH STORM MOTIONS OFF
TO THE NNE.  SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK BUILDING RESULTING IN TRAINING
ALREADY IN THE SIERRA VISTA AREA AS WELL AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RINCONS.  NO PROBLEMS THUS FAR BUT MANAGED TO GET HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL WITH THE SIERRA VISTA STORM.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
THANKS TO 1200-2000 CAPE AND AN IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
HEADED THIS WAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH A CONCERN OF TRAINING CELLS BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING.  A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND SENDING AN OUTFLOW TO THE N-NW
WITH THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST NW OF TUCSON TOWARD PHX.  NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO JUST YET TO SEND A PREEMPTIVE DUST
ADVISORY YET BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE IT.  SO FAR THE PRIME SHOW IS TOO
FAR TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT SO CONCERN WOULD BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HIGH WATER PROBLEMS AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON ITS WAY TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN
TODAYS PUTTING THE FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS.

BEYOND THAT WE STILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
ISN/T QUITE AS HIGH.  COULD/SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES IN
THAT FLOW TO HELP CONVECTION AT TIMES ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TRY TO
CAPTURE AND TIME THOSE.  THROUGH OUT THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THEN BOTH THE GFS (WHICH PICKED THIS WHOLE SCENARIO UP WELL THUS
FAR) AND THE ECMWF INDICATED A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE UP THROUGH HERE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE DETAILS
DIFFER...HOWEVER WITH BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR IDEA THIS FAR OUT IT
NEEDS TO BE NOTED.  IF IT WERE TO COME TO PASS IT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.  THEN BEYOND THAT THE TREND
IS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU
03/06Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 03/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL
BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH. STORM
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 022032
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRED UP ON SCHEDULE WITH STORM MOTIONS OFF
TO THE NNE.  SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK BUILDING RESULTING IN TRAINING
ALREADY IN THE SIERRA VISTA AREA AS WELL AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RINCONS.  NO PROBLEMS THUS FAR BUT MANAGED TO GET HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL WITH THE SIERRA VISTA STORM.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
THANKS TO 1200-2000 CAPE AND AN IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
HEADED THIS WAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH A CONCERN OF TRAINING CELLS BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING.  A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND SENDING AN OUTFLOW TO THE N-NW
WITH THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST NW OF TUCSON TOWARD PHX.  NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO JUST YET TO SEND A PREEMPTIVE DUST
ADVISORY YET BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE IT.  SO FAR THE PRIME SHOW IS TOO
FAR TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT SO CONCERN WOULD BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HIGH WATER PROBLEMS AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON ITS WAY TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN
TODAYS PUTTING THE FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS.

BEYOND THAT WE STILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
ISN/T QUITE AS HIGH.  COULD/SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES IN
THAT FLOW TO HELP CONVECTION AT TIMES ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TRY TO
CAPTURE AND TIME THOSE.  THROUGH OUT THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THEN BOTH THE GFS (WHICH PICKED THIS WHOLE SCENARIO UP WELL THUS
FAR) AND THE ECMWF INDICATED A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE UP THROUGH HERE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE DETAILS
DIFFER...HOWEVER WITH BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR IDEA THIS FAR OUT IT
NEEDS TO BE NOTED.  IF IT WERE TO COME TO PASS IT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.  THEN BEYOND THAT THE TREND
IS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU
03/06Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 03/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL
BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH. STORM
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 022032
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRED UP ON SCHEDULE WITH STORM MOTIONS OFF
TO THE NNE.  SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK BUILDING RESULTING IN TRAINING
ALREADY IN THE SIERRA VISTA AREA AS WELL AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RINCONS.  NO PROBLEMS THUS FAR BUT MANAGED TO GET HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL WITH THE SIERRA VISTA STORM.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
THANKS TO 1200-2000 CAPE AND AN IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
HEADED THIS WAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH A CONCERN OF TRAINING CELLS BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING.  A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND SENDING AN OUTFLOW TO THE N-NW
WITH THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST NW OF TUCSON TOWARD PHX.  NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO JUST YET TO SEND A PREEMPTIVE DUST
ADVISORY YET BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE IT.  SO FAR THE PRIME SHOW IS TOO
FAR TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT SO CONCERN WOULD BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HIGH WATER PROBLEMS AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON ITS WAY TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN
TODAYS PUTTING THE FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS.

BEYOND THAT WE STILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
ISN/T QUITE AS HIGH.  COULD/SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES IN
THAT FLOW TO HELP CONVECTION AT TIMES ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TRY TO
CAPTURE AND TIME THOSE.  THROUGH OUT THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THEN BOTH THE GFS (WHICH PICKED THIS WHOLE SCENARIO UP WELL THUS
FAR) AND THE ECMWF INDICATED A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE UP THROUGH HERE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE DETAILS
DIFFER...HOWEVER WITH BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR IDEA THIS FAR OUT IT
NEEDS TO BE NOTED.  IF IT WERE TO COME TO PASS IT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.  THEN BEYOND THAT THE TREND
IS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU
03/06Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 03/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL
BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH. STORM
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 022032
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT
ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRED UP ON SCHEDULE WITH STORM MOTIONS OFF
TO THE NNE.  SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK BUILDING RESULTING IN TRAINING
ALREADY IN THE SIERRA VISTA AREA AS WELL AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RINCONS.  NO PROBLEMS THUS FAR BUT MANAGED TO GET HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL WITH THE SIERRA VISTA STORM.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
THANKS TO 1200-2000 CAPE AND AN IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER
HEADED THIS WAY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH A CONCERN OF TRAINING CELLS BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLOODING.  A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING AND SENDING AN OUTFLOW TO THE N-NW
WITH THE THREAT OF BLOWING DUST NW OF TUCSON TOWARD PHX.  NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO JUST YET TO SEND A PREEMPTIVE DUST
ADVISORY YET BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE IT.  SO FAR THE PRIME SHOW IS TOO
FAR TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE NIGHT SO CONCERN WOULD BE FOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL HIGH WATER PROBLEMS AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON ITS WAY TO AFFECT THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE A FEW HOURS LATER THAN
TODAYS PUTTING THE FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING AND WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS.

BEYOND THAT WE STILL MAINTAIN A S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
ISN/T QUITE AS HIGH.  COULD/SHOULD ALSO HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES IN
THAT FLOW TO HELP CONVECTION AT TIMES ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TRY TO
CAPTURE AND TIME THOSE.  THROUGH OUT THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME...DUE TO CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THEN BOTH THE GFS (WHICH PICKED THIS WHOLE SCENARIO UP WELL THUS
FAR) AND THE ECMWF INDICATED A MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE UP THROUGH HERE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.  THE DETAILS
DIFFER...HOWEVER WITH BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR IDEA THIS FAR OUT IT
NEEDS TO BE NOTED.  IF IT WERE TO COME TO PASS IT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.  THEN BEYOND THAT THE TREND
IS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THRU
03/06Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8K FT AND 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. TSRA/SHRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 03/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL
BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH. STORM
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
WITHIN THIS FLOW WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER...TO GO ALONG WITH PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WITHIN THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE ARE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT SHOULD ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY.  THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING LOOKS BETTER THAN IT HAS IN A FEW DAYS ONCE WE WORK OFF THE
MORNING LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING PWS NEAR
1.5 AND CAPES OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE WE GET THE CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING ECHOES ESPECIALLY OVER AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RUNOFF ISSUES.  THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCES WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF THE CONVECTION.  OVERALL A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED TODAY.  WATCH FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL.  THE OUTFLOWS MAY
CREATE SOME DUST ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES IF
THE OUTFLOWS GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE RAIN CORES.  CERNIGLIA

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION MOSTLY FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THURSDAY...AND WITH A SECOND IMPULSE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE PERIOD THAN TODAY.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA THE LAST 3 DAYS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
TO BE ABOUT 12 HRS EARLIER NOW.  EVEN BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED RISK FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AND
STRONG ORGANIZED OUTFLOW.

AFTER THAT DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR...HOWEVER IN GENERAL WE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FAVORABLE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE CONTINUE
TO IMPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM OUR SEPTEMBER TROPICAL SEEDING
ZONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
LAYERS 8-12K FT AND BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY
BE TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.  TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER
STORMS PUSHING OVER 50 MPH.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ABOUT 10-15 MPH.  THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 021600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  WE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NICE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION THANKS TO A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS.
WITHIN THIS FLOW WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER...TO GO ALONG WITH PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WITHIN THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW THERE ARE A FEW
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES THAT SHOULD ASSIST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY.  THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING LOOKS BETTER THAN IT HAS IN A FEW DAYS ONCE WE WORK OFF THE
MORNING LOWER LEVEL INHIBITION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING PWS NEAR
1.5 AND CAPES OF AT LEAST 1500 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE WE GET THE CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING ECHOES ESPECIALLY OVER AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RUNOFF ISSUES.  THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCES WILL
BE THE DRIVER OF THE CONVECTION.  OVERALL A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED TODAY.  WATCH FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND
HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL.  THE OUTFLOWS MAY
CREATE SOME DUST ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES IF
THE OUTFLOWS GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE RAIN CORES.  CERNIGLIA

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION MOSTLY FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THURSDAY...AND WITH A SECOND IMPULSE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE PERIOD THAN TODAY.  THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA THE LAST 3 DAYS ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
TO BE ABOUT 12 HRS EARLIER NOW.  EVEN BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED RISK FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AND
STRONG ORGANIZED OUTFLOW.

AFTER THAT DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR...HOWEVER IN GENERAL WE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FAVORABLE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE CONTINUE
TO IMPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM OUR SEPTEMBER TROPICAL SEEDING
ZONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
LAYERS 8-12K FT AND BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY
BE TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT.
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.  TYPICAL T-STORM GUSTS WILL BE 25-35 MPH WITH STRONGER
STORMS PUSHING OVER 50 MPH.  STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ABOUT 10-15 MPH.  THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021021
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL THEN MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE`VE ESTABLISHED A VERY NIFTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN LARGE SCALE FEATURES AS THE PERSISTENT MEAN
TROUGH POSITION REMAINS THROUGH THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST (A NICE
LITTLE LOW AT THE BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST) AND THE
RIDGE AXIS PHASES A TAD FURTHER EAST. THIS OPENS UP A FETCH THAT
REACHES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF BAJA OFF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THAT DOES NICE THINGS FOR MAINTAINING OUR
MOISTURE. IT ALSO BRINGS IN 2 EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW TODAY
AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.

OVERALL A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FIRST IMPULSE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A TRAJECTORY FAVORING
SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA...AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WATCH FOR
ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. THE OUTFLOWS MAY CREATE SOME DUST ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF
PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES.

THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THURSDAY...AND WITH A SECOND IMPULSE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE PERIOD THAN TODAY. EVEN BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED RISK FOR WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY AND STRONG ORGANIZED OUTFLOW.

AFTER THAT DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR...HOWEVER IN GENERAL WE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FAVORABLE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE CONTINUE
TO IMPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM OUR SEPTEMBER TROPICAL SEEDING
ZONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 021021
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL THEN MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE`VE ESTABLISHED A VERY NIFTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN LARGE SCALE FEATURES AS THE PERSISTENT MEAN
TROUGH POSITION REMAINS THROUGH THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST (A NICE
LITTLE LOW AT THE BASE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST) AND THE
RIDGE AXIS PHASES A TAD FURTHER EAST. THIS OPENS UP A FETCH THAT
REACHES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY SOUTH OF BAJA OFF
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THAT DOES NICE THINGS FOR MAINTAINING OUR
MOISTURE. IT ALSO BRINGS IN 2 EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW TODAY
AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.

OVERALL A WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAY EXPECTED TODAY AS THE
FIRST IMPULSE PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A TRAJECTORY FAVORING
SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA...AND WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WATCH FOR
ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. THE OUTFLOWS MAY CREATE SOME DUST ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF
PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES.

THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESET THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
THURSDAY...AND WITH A SECOND IMPULSE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE PERIOD THAN TODAY. EVEN BETTER
STORM ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER ELEVATED RISK FOR WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY AND STRONG ORGANIZED OUTFLOW.

AFTER THAT DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR...HOWEVER IN GENERAL WE WILL
MAINTAIN THIS FAVORABLE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS WE CONTINUE
TO IMPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM OUR SEPTEMBER TROPICAL SEEDING
ZONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 020450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THE
REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WERE AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

BASED ON THE 02/00Z NAM12 AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU DAYBREAK WED. GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL BE ON TAP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE 01/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 02/00Z NAM12 IS REALITY. HIGH TEMPS WED
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. EVEN COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THUR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 020450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THE
REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WERE AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

BASED ON THE 02/00Z NAM12 AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU DAYBREAK WED. GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL BE ON TAP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE 01/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 02/00Z NAM12 IS REALITY. HIGH TEMPS WED
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. EVEN COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THUR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 020450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THE
REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WERE AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

BASED ON THE 02/00Z NAM12 AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU DAYBREAK WED. GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL BE ON TAP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE 01/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 02/00Z NAM12 IS REALITY. HIGH TEMPS WED
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. EVEN COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THUR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 020450
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS NWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THE
REST OF SE ARIZONA WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WERE AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

BASED ON THE 02/00Z NAM12 AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU DAYBREAK WED. GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THE
REST OF TONIGHT. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL BE ON TAP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE 01/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 02/00Z NAM12 IS REALITY. HIGH TEMPS WED
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS F OR SO BELOW NORMAL. EVEN COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THUR.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-15K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWED BY A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /232 PM MST/...A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 012132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS INTO THE
EVENING THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ONLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.  WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE NE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOWS.  FOR THE MOST
PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH
RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY WILL BE STRONGER.  THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
CAPTURE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND DIRECT THAT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 012132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS INTO THE
EVENING THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ONLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.  WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE NE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOWS.  FOR THE MOST
PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH
RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY WILL BE STRONGER.  THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
CAPTURE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND DIRECT THAT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 012132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS INTO THE
EVENING THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ONLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.  WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE NE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOWS.  FOR THE MOST
PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH
RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY WILL BE STRONGER.  THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
CAPTURE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND DIRECT THAT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 012132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS INTO THE
EVENING THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ONLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.  WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE NE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOWS.  FOR THE MOST
PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH
RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY WILL BE STRONGER.  THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
CAPTURE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND DIRECT THAT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011658
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LITTLE LATER START IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE IN STORMS TODAY ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY AVOIDING AREAS HIT THE
HARDEST LAST EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK IN
THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY
WILL BE STRONGER. THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO
OUR EAST WILL BE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE. WITH
TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEATING UP AGAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
(HELLO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...SOON TO BECOME KEVIN)...WE`LL HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER WATCHING FOR TROPICAL INFLUENCES PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT WE`LL SEE WHAT ELSE COOKS UP FOR
US FROM THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011658
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LITTLE LATER START IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE IN STORMS TODAY ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY AVOIDING AREAS HIT THE
HARDEST LAST EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK IN
THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY
WILL BE STRONGER. THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO
OUR EAST WILL BE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE. WITH
TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEATING UP AGAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
(HELLO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...SOON TO BECOME KEVIN)...WE`LL HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER WATCHING FOR TROPICAL INFLUENCES PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT WE`LL SEE WHAT ELSE COOKS UP FOR
US FROM THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011658
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LITTLE LATER START IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE IN STORMS TODAY ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY AVOIDING AREAS HIT THE
HARDEST LAST EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK IN
THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY
WILL BE STRONGER. THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO
OUR EAST WILL BE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE. WITH
TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEATING UP AGAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
(HELLO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...SOON TO BECOME KEVIN)...WE`LL HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER WATCHING FOR TROPICAL INFLUENCES PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT WE`LL SEE WHAT ELSE COOKS UP FOR
US FROM THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011658
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
958 AM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6
DEGREES COOLER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTER THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LITTLE LATER START IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE IN STORMS TODAY ALTHOUGH POSSIBLY AVOIDING AREAS HIT THE
HARDEST LAST EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK IN
THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL GE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS
WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY
WILL BE STRONGER. THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDGE TO
OUR EAST WILL BE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE. WITH
TROPICAL ACTIVITY HEATING UP AGAIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
(HELLO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...SOON TO BECOME KEVIN)...WE`LL HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER WATCHING FOR TROPICAL INFLUENCES PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. AN IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THAT WE`LL SEE WHAT ELSE COOKS UP FOR
US FROM THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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