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000
FXUS65 KTWC 050845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER YESTERDAY IS DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...BISECTING THE STATE...AND EXTENDING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING
PINCHED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING..THEN EXPECT INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE KTUS TERMINAL TO
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN AFTER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 050845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER YESTERDAY IS DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...BISECTING THE STATE...AND EXTENDING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING
PINCHED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING..THEN EXPECT INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE KTUS TERMINAL TO
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN AFTER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 050845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER YESTERDAY IS DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...BISECTING THE STATE...AND EXTENDING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING
PINCHED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING..THEN EXPECT INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE KTUS TERMINAL TO
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN AFTER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 050845
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICAN BORDER YESTERDAY IS DRAPED FROM
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...BISECTING THE STATE...AND EXTENDING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING
PINCHED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS
TODAY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING..THEN EXPECT INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE KTUS TERMINAL TO
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN AFTER SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 050404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IS QUICKLY MOVING SWD OUT OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO ARIZONA AS THE MAIN LOW IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THIS VALUE. AREA TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S...AT LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS...WILL SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND POPS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY FURTHER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND
05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 14-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KTUS TERMINAL TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER
PIECE OF THE LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC
WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN
SE AZ WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CANTIN/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 050404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IS QUICKLY MOVING SWD OUT OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO ARIZONA AS THE MAIN LOW IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THIS VALUE. AREA TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S...AT LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS...WILL SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND POPS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY FURTHER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND
05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 14-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KTUS TERMINAL TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER
PIECE OF THE LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC
WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN
SE AZ WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CANTIN/FRENCH






000
FXUS65 KTWC 050404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IS QUICKLY MOVING SWD OUT OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO ARIZONA AS THE MAIN LOW IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THIS VALUE. AREA TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S...AT LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS...WILL SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND POPS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY FURTHER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND
05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 14-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KTUS TERMINAL TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER
PIECE OF THE LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC
WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN
SE AZ WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CANTIN/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 050404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IS QUICKLY MOVING SWD OUT OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO ARIZONA AS THE MAIN LOW IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THIS VALUE. AREA TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S...AT LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS...WILL SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND POPS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY FURTHER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND
05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 14-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KTUS TERMINAL TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER
PIECE OF THE LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC
WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN
SE AZ WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CANTIN/FRENCH






000
FXUS65 KTWC 042104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FROM TUCSON S AND E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER
LOW EXITS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SPOTTY THUS
FAR BUT A FEW SPOTS DID MEASURE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC WILL START TO
ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN SE AZ WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE
12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS MEANS THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY
MID DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. DRYING AND WARMING IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION CANTIN
















000
FXUS65 KTWC 042104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FROM TUCSON S AND E WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER
LOW EXITS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SPOTTY THUS
FAR BUT A FEW SPOTS DID MEASURE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC WILL START TO
ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN SE AZ WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE
12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS MEANS THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY
MID DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. DRYING AND WARMING IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION CANTIN

















000
FXUS65 KTWC 041600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SONORA TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW LIGHT
ECHOES.  ACTUALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS DUE TO
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  IN FACT MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL ALONG WITH THE
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THEREFORE NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT WEAK SYSTEM WHICH COULD AFFECT OUR WEEKEND WEATHER
AS LATEST MODELS COME IN LATER TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TODAY
MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF KTUS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-9K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL BAJA...THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-8K FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TO THE EAST
TODAY AS IT PHASES WITH A SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THAT 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 8 DEGS C/KM. IN ADDITION...A COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS CONCURRENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE
SANTA RITA...HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA LATE
THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO NO
`REAL` THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARLY OVERHEAD.

FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INTO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD














000
FXUS65 KTWC 041600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SONORA TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW LIGHT
ECHOES.  ACTUALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS DUE TO
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  IN FACT MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL ALONG WITH THE
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THEREFORE NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT WEAK SYSTEM WHICH COULD AFFECT OUR WEEKEND WEATHER
AS LATEST MODELS COME IN LATER TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TODAY
MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF KTUS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-9K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL BAJA...THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-8K FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TO THE EAST
TODAY AS IT PHASES WITH A SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THAT 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 8 DEGS C/KM. IN ADDITION...A COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS CONCURRENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE
SANTA RITA...HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA LATE
THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO NO
`REAL` THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARLY OVERHEAD.

FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INTO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD














000
FXUS65 KTWC 041600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SONORA TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW LIGHT
ECHOES.  ACTUALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS DUE TO
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  IN FACT MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL ALONG WITH THE
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THEREFORE NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO CURRENT FORECAST. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT WEAK SYSTEM WHICH COULD AFFECT OUR WEEKEND WEATHER
AS LATEST MODELS COME IN LATER TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TODAY
MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF KTUS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-9K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL BAJA...THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-8K FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TO THE EAST
TODAY AS IT PHASES WITH A SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THAT 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 8 DEGS C/KM. IN ADDITION...A COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS CONCURRENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE
SANTA RITA...HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA LATE
THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO NO
`REAL` THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARLY OVERHEAD.

FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INTO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD













000
FXUS65 KTWC 041005
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN
NOGALES AND DOUGLAS. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL BAJA...THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-8K FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TO THE EAST
TODAY AS IT PHASES WITH A SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THAT 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 8 DEGS C/KM. IN ADDITION...A COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS CONCURRENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE
SANTA RITA...HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA LATE
THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO NO
`REAL` THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARLY OVERHEAD.

FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INTO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TODAY
MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF KTUS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-9K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE










000
FXUS65 KTWC 041005
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN
NOGALES AND DOUGLAS. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL BAJA...THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING INTO A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS
RANGING FROM AROUND 5-8K FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TO THE EAST
TODAY AS IT PHASES WITH A SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
SWINGING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALSO OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS OF
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. MODELS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THAT 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 8 DEGS C/KM. IN ADDITION...A COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS CONCURRENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OUT AT AROUND 6-7K FEET AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
5500-6K FEET DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...
ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE
SANTA RITA...HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA LATE
THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN BAJA AND SONORA LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SO NO
`REAL` THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM NEARLY OVERHEAD.

FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS THIS FAR
OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE INTO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW A DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM 4 TO
6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TODAY
MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF KTUS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM 4-9K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTH OF
TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE











000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KTWC 030431
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. FRAGMENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH DECENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND ITS
REMAINS. THIS COULD END UP BEING A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTY THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
(SUCH AS JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA VISTA AREA). SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO COLORADO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
RANGE FROM ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY TO 6500-7000
FEET FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. BEST GUESS IS THE CATALINAS GOT
SOMEWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WE WON`T HAVE ANY REPORTS UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS OF 9 PM HANNAGAN
MEADOW WAS UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. CAMERAS ON MT GRAHAM AND RAINFALL
GAGES AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN SUGGEST 4 TO 6 INCHES SO FAR WITH
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH KTUS AND KOLS BUT FRAGMENTING AND STALLING AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD KDUG. SFC WINDS SLY 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND
WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 030431
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. FRAGMENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH DECENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND ITS
REMAINS. THIS COULD END UP BEING A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTY THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
(SUCH AS JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA VISTA AREA). SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO COLORADO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
RANGE FROM ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY TO 6500-7000
FEET FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. BEST GUESS IS THE CATALINAS GOT
SOMEWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WE WON`T HAVE ANY REPORTS UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS OF 9 PM HANNAGAN
MEADOW WAS UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. CAMERAS ON MT GRAHAM AND RAINFALL
GAGES AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN SUGGEST 4 TO 6 INCHES SO FAR WITH
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH KTUS AND KOLS BUT FRAGMENTING AND STALLING AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD KDUG. SFC WINDS SLY 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND
WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON











000
FXUS65 KTWC 022145
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING KTUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. SFC WINDS SLY
15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z  FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SE AZ AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 022145
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING KTUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. SFC WINDS SLY
15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z  FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SE AZ AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021626
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
  ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
  TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 021626
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
  ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
  TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








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