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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240929
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN THIS MORNING
WITH 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS DOWN 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND A DEW POINT
CRASH INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH A BIT MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS AIRMASS IS FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
MITIGATING FACTOR IS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW SPILLING OVER FROM NEW MEXICO. IT WILL HAPPEN TUESDAY
MORNING...AND PRECISELY WHEN WILL DETERMINE IF TUCSON FREEZES OR
NOT. AS OF RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 34 FOR TIA TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS KICKING IN AROUND 3 OR 4 AM PREVENTING A FREEZE. EVEN
IF THIS WORKS OUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AREAS AROUND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY INCLUDING OUTLYING AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS AROUND TUCSON
METRO THAT MAY FREEZE TO WARRANT A FREEZE WATCH AS A HEADS-UP. ALSO
IT SHOULD BE NOTED IT WON`T TAKE MUCH WIND TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF...7
TO 10 MPH WOULD DO IT.

ELSEWHERE OUR TYPICAL COLD PRONE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING
MOST OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES (AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY) SHOULD EASILY REACH FREEZE AND/OR
HARD FREEZE LEVELS.

THIS COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AROUND 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH PUTS TUCSON
AROUND 80 OR SO.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A SOLID TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DAYS 7-10 TO START DECEMBER. THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT ANY
SEASONAL WEATHER.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SKC THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THRU THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW MORNING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS
STAYING UP. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE NEAR OR OVERHEAD
THRU THE FORECAST KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET. THAT BEING
SAID...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT INTO
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ504 INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

$$

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MEYER/MEADOWS/CARLAW







000
FXUS65 KTWC 240929
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN THIS MORNING
WITH 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS DOWN 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND A DEW POINT
CRASH INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH A BIT MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION
TODAY...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS AIRMASS IS FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
MITIGATING FACTOR IS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW SPILLING OVER FROM NEW MEXICO. IT WILL HAPPEN TUESDAY
MORNING...AND PRECISELY WHEN WILL DETERMINE IF TUCSON FREEZES OR
NOT. AS OF RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 34 FOR TIA TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS KICKING IN AROUND 3 OR 4 AM PREVENTING A FREEZE. EVEN
IF THIS WORKS OUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AREAS AROUND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY INCLUDING OUTLYING AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS AROUND TUCSON
METRO THAT MAY FREEZE TO WARRANT A FREEZE WATCH AS A HEADS-UP. ALSO
IT SHOULD BE NOTED IT WON`T TAKE MUCH WIND TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF...7
TO 10 MPH WOULD DO IT.

ELSEWHERE OUR TYPICAL COLD PRONE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING
MOST OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES (AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY) SHOULD EASILY REACH FREEZE AND/OR
HARD FREEZE LEVELS.

THIS COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AROUND 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH PUTS TUCSON
AROUND 80 OR SO.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A SOLID TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DAYS 7-10 TO START DECEMBER. THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT ANY
SEASONAL WEATHER.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SKC THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THRU THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW MORNING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS
STAYING UP. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE NEAR OR OVERHEAD
THRU THE FORECAST KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET. THAT BEING
SAID...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT INTO
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ504 INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/CARLAW






000
FXUS65 KTWC 240356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING BETWEEN 0
AND 10 BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING E AND NE OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 WITH
LOWS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED
FROM THE WIND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AT TIA FROM THE
PLETHORA OF MODEL DATA WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 39 DEGREES. THINK THE 34 RIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY COOL MONDAY TO START THE SHORTENED HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER
25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS EAST OF KTUS...10-15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 240356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING BETWEEN 0
AND 10 BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING E AND NE OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 WITH
LOWS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED
FROM THE WIND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AT TIA FROM THE
PLETHORA OF MODEL DATA WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 39 DEGREES. THINK THE 34 RIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY COOL MONDAY TO START THE SHORTENED HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER
25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS EAST OF KTUS...10-15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 240356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING BETWEEN 0
AND 10 BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING E AND NE OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 WITH
LOWS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED
FROM THE WIND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AT TIA FROM THE
PLETHORA OF MODEL DATA WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 39 DEGREES. THINK THE 34 RIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY COOL MONDAY TO START THE SHORTENED HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER
25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS EAST OF KTUS...10-15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 240356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY COOL NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WITH DEWPOINTS CRASHING BETWEEN 0
AND 10 BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING E AND NE OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF TUCSON WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35 WITH
LOWS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PROTECTED
FROM THE WIND. LOTS OF DIFFERENCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AT TIA FROM THE
PLETHORA OF MODEL DATA WE HAVE TO LOOK AT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGING BETWEEN 28 AND 39 DEGREES. THINK THE 34 RIGHT LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. RAN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY COOL MONDAY TO START THE SHORTENED HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER
25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS EAST OF KTUS...10-15
KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 232130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS DUE TO PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE REMAINING BREEZY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES AND HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO VARYING DEGREES.
SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY BUT AT THE MOMENT SEEM TO HAVE PEAKED.  THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO EASE UP ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR AND
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHILE THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL GRADIENT
SHOULD MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TONIGHT.

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS HOW COLD DOES IT GET THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.  THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE AIR MASS AS IT WILL BE COLD AND
VERY DRY...ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE YEAR.
THAT IS IF THE WIND DOESN`T BLOW.  FOR GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE PRETTY
MUCH A GIVEN BUT THOSE AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE AND
FAR EASTERN AREAS A HARD FREEZE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED THOSE AREAS.
THE PROBLEM LOCATIONS ARE EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE.

TEMPS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL AREAS
SHELTERED BY AN EXPECTED NORTHEAST BREEZE DROPPING TO FREEZING OR A
BIT BELOW.  SO LOCATIONS HUGGING THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF
MOUNTAINS LIKE THE CATALINAS AND RINCONS WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE
FREEZING TEMPS.  ON THE OTHER HAND WIDE OPEN AREAS AND PLACES LIKE
THE REDDINGTON PASS GAP WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZE AND BE WARMER.  BASED
ON THE FACT THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND
NOT WIDESPREAD IN THESE ZONES WILL NOT HOIST A FREEZE WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING
LOWS...AGAIN IF THE WIND IS NOT A FACTOR.  LATEST SYNOPTIC MODEL
RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AND THE LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE BACKING THAT UP.  WHAT
THIS MEANS IS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT STRONGER.  WHILE NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WILL
BE COLD...IT AGAIN AFFECTS THE BORDERLINE AREAS WHICH ARE EASTERN
PINAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES.  FOR AREAS NORMALLY EXPOSED TO EAST
WINDS...(LIKE TUCSON AIRPORT) THE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IF THE WINDS
PICK UP EARLY ENOUGH WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY.  THE
RESULT WOULD AGAIN SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS...JUST DIFFERENT SPOTS DUE
TO A DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTION.  UNFORTUNATELY NEITHER DAY IS CLEAR
CUT OR A GIVEN...SO TO BE SAFE ITS A GOOD IDEA TO PROTECT OVERLY
SENSITIVE PLANTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS JUST IN CASE.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE
SW LATER THIS WEEK AS IT STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THOUGH THE
RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.  AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY TO BASICALLY WEST
FLOW BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NW. GUSTY W/NW WINDS 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT...STRONGEST
OF THE WINDS EAST OF KTUS THRU 24/02Z. THEREAFTER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...LOCALLY BREEZY NEAR TERRAIN
CHOKE POINTS. AFTER 25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS
EAST OF KTUS...10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEN ACROSS UPPER GILA VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMING EAST AFTER
SUNSET. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 232130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS DUE TO PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE REMAINING BREEZY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES AND HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO VARYING DEGREES.
SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY BUT AT THE MOMENT SEEM TO HAVE PEAKED.  THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO EASE UP ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR AND
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHILE THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL GRADIENT
SHOULD MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TONIGHT.

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS HOW COLD DOES IT GET THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.  THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE AIR MASS AS IT WILL BE COLD AND
VERY DRY...ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE YEAR.
THAT IS IF THE WIND DOESN`T BLOW.  FOR GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE PRETTY
MUCH A GIVEN BUT THOSE AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE AND
FAR EASTERN AREAS A HARD FREEZE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED THOSE AREAS.
THE PROBLEM LOCATIONS ARE EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE.

TEMPS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL AREAS
SHELTERED BY AN EXPECTED NORTHEAST BREEZE DROPPING TO FREEZING OR A
BIT BELOW.  SO LOCATIONS HUGGING THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF
MOUNTAINS LIKE THE CATALINAS AND RINCONS WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE
FREEZING TEMPS.  ON THE OTHER HAND WIDE OPEN AREAS AND PLACES LIKE
THE REDDINGTON PASS GAP WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZE AND BE WARMER.  BASED
ON THE FACT THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND
NOT WIDESPREAD IN THESE ZONES WILL NOT HOIST A FREEZE WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING
LOWS...AGAIN IF THE WIND IS NOT A FACTOR.  LATEST SYNOPTIC MODEL
RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AND THE LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE BACKING THAT UP.  WHAT
THIS MEANS IS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT STRONGER.  WHILE NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WILL
BE COLD...IT AGAIN AFFECTS THE BORDERLINE AREAS WHICH ARE EASTERN
PINAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES.  FOR AREAS NORMALLY EXPOSED TO EAST
WINDS...(LIKE TUCSON AIRPORT) THE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IF THE WINDS
PICK UP EARLY ENOUGH WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY.  THE
RESULT WOULD AGAIN SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS...JUST DIFFERENT SPOTS DUE
TO A DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTION.  UNFORTUNATELY NEITHER DAY IS CLEAR
CUT OR A GIVEN...SO TO BE SAFE ITS A GOOD IDEA TO PROTECT OVERLY
SENSITIVE PLANTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS JUST IN CASE.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE
SW LATER THIS WEEK AS IT STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THOUGH THE
RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.  AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY TO BASICALLY WEST
FLOW BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NW. GUSTY W/NW WINDS 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT...STRONGEST
OF THE WINDS EAST OF KTUS THRU 24/02Z. THEREAFTER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...LOCALLY BREEZY NEAR TERRAIN
CHOKE POINTS. AFTER 25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS
EAST OF KTUS...10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEN ACROSS UPPER GILA VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMING EAST AFTER
SUNSET. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 232130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS DUE TO PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL EASE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE REMAINING BREEZY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES AND HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO VARYING DEGREES.
SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE UPPER GILA VALLEY BUT AT THE MOMENT SEEM TO HAVE PEAKED.  THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO EASE UP ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR AND
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHILE THE ENHANCED MID LEVEL GRADIENT
SHOULD MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TONIGHT.

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS HOW COLD DOES IT GET THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.  THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE AIR MASS AS IT WILL BE COLD AND
VERY DRY...ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE YEAR.
THAT IS IF THE WIND DOESN`T BLOW.  FOR GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE PRETTY
MUCH A GIVEN BUT THOSE AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE AND
FAR EASTERN AREAS A HARD FREEZE SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED THOSE AREAS.
THE PROBLEM LOCATIONS ARE EASTERN PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE.

TEMPS IN THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL AREAS
SHELTERED BY AN EXPECTED NORTHEAST BREEZE DROPPING TO FREEZING OR A
BIT BELOW.  SO LOCATIONS HUGGING THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF
MOUNTAINS LIKE THE CATALINAS AND RINCONS WILL LIKELY SEE THOSE
FREEZING TEMPS.  ON THE OTHER HAND WIDE OPEN AREAS AND PLACES LIKE
THE REDDINGTON PASS GAP WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZE AND BE WARMER.  BASED
ON THE FACT THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY AND
NOT WIDESPREAD IN THESE ZONES WILL NOT HOIST A FREEZE WARNING AT
THIS TIME.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING
LOWS...AGAIN IF THE WIND IS NOT A FACTOR.  LATEST SYNOPTIC MODEL
RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER AND THE LATEST HI RES MODELS ARE BACKING THAT UP.  WHAT
THIS MEANS IS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT STRONGER.  WHILE NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WILL
BE COLD...IT AGAIN AFFECTS THE BORDERLINE AREAS WHICH ARE EASTERN
PINAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES.  FOR AREAS NORMALLY EXPOSED TO EAST
WINDS...(LIKE TUCSON AIRPORT) THE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IF THE WINDS
PICK UP EARLY ENOUGH WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY.  THE
RESULT WOULD AGAIN SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS...JUST DIFFERENT SPOTS DUE
TO A DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTION.  UNFORTUNATELY NEITHER DAY IS CLEAR
CUT OR A GIVEN...SO TO BE SAFE ITS A GOOD IDEA TO PROTECT OVERLY
SENSITIVE PLANTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS JUST IN CASE.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE
SW LATER THIS WEEK AS IT STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THOUGH THE
RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.  AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY TO BASICALLY WEST
FLOW BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NW. GUSTY W/NW WINDS 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT...STRONGEST
OF THE WINDS EAST OF KTUS THRU 24/02Z. THEREAFTER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS...LOCALLY BREEZY NEAR TERRAIN
CHOKE POINTS. AFTER 25/18Z...INCREASING NW WINDS...STRONGER WINDS
EAST OF KTUS...10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEN ACROSS UPPER GILA VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOMING EAST AFTER
SUNSET. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OVER TODAY...THE FAVORED GILA RIVER WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE VERY LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN
PLACES...GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...A WARMING FROM
WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 231603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE FIRST OF A SHORT SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
OVER NEW MEXICO AND A SECOND STRONGER ONE OVER SE UTAH/NE ARIZONA.
THE DECENT NW FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SECOND WAVE WITH W TO NW WINDS SURFACING THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST AREAS
TUCSON WESTWARD WILL HAVE 10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S
WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL PUSH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY...SAFFORD EASTWARD...MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO
THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER
AIR.  MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS THE SW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A
THIRD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WILL TURN THE FLOW TO
NLY AND USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.  ALL THIS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PUSH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SE ARIZONA EAST OF
TUCSON...AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL DROP IN THE MID 30S WITH A
POTENTIAL OF BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON WIND AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WHILE IN TOWN MAY
NOT HIT FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS LIKELY
WILL.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING LOWS
INCLUDING BELOW FREEZING IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.  IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW EARLY ANY EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT IT
MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.  WILL
LOOK INTO THIS TODAY AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE SW AS IT
STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/18Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 231603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE FIRST OF A SHORT SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
OVER NEW MEXICO AND A SECOND STRONGER ONE OVER SE UTAH/NE ARIZONA.
THE DECENT NW FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SECOND WAVE WITH W TO NW WINDS SURFACING THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST AREAS
TUCSON WESTWARD WILL HAVE 10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S
WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL PUSH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY...SAFFORD EASTWARD...MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO
THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER
AIR.  MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS THE SW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A
THIRD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WILL TURN THE FLOW TO
NLY AND USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.  ALL THIS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PUSH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SE ARIZONA EAST OF
TUCSON...AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL DROP IN THE MID 30S WITH A
POTENTIAL OF BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON WIND AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WHILE IN TOWN MAY
NOT HIT FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS LIKELY
WILL.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING LOWS
INCLUDING BELOW FREEZING IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.  IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW EARLY ANY EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT IT
MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.  WILL
LOOK INTO THIS TODAY AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE SW AS IT
STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/18Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 231603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATELY STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THE FIRST OF A SHORT SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
OVER NEW MEXICO AND A SECOND STRONGER ONE OVER SE UTAH/NE ARIZONA.
THE DECENT NW FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SECOND WAVE WITH W TO NW WINDS SURFACING THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST AREAS
TUCSON WESTWARD WILL HAVE 10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S
WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL PUSH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY...SAFFORD EASTWARD...MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO
THE UPPER 20S WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER
AIR.  MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS THE SW AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A
THIRD SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WILL TURN THE FLOW TO
NLY AND USHER IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.  ALL THIS WILL COME TOGETHER TO PUSH MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF SE ARIZONA EAST OF
TUCSON...AREAS THAT ALREADY HAD FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

TEMPS IN THE IMMEDIATE TUCSON AREA WILL DROP IN THE MID 30S WITH A
POTENTIAL OF BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON WIND AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COOL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WHILE IN TOWN MAY
NOT HIT FREEZING MONDAY MORNING...SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS LIKELY
WILL.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY
IN PLACE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER MORNING LOWS
INCLUDING BELOW FREEZING IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA.  IT WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW EARLY ANY EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT IT
MAY END UP BEING THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.  WILL
LOOK INTO THIS TODAY AND ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE SW AS IT
STEADILY DEAMPLIFIES.  EVEN THROUGH THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES IT WILL STILL PROMOTE A STRONG WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP TO ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINTAIN THAT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/18Z. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 230929
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MARKED WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND WILL REVERSE TODAY AS AN
IMPULSE BRUSHES BY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN OF FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE TEMPERATURES TO COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
CARVE DOWN THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MONDAY...BRINGING US
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SPILLING OVER FROM NEW MEXICO. THE
POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...BUT MAY BE MITIGATED BY AN ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT RETURN FLOW IN EASTERN AREAS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THOSE TO BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
OF THE SEASON TO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY (INCLUDING METRO TUCSON). RIGHT
NOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THAT. AS MENTIONED...THE EASTERLY WINDS MAY TAKE THE EDGE OFF LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT ALL IT TAKES IS FOR THEM TO DIE OFF A FEW MINUTES
AROUND SUNRISE. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN FREEZES AND HARD
FREEZES WILL BE AT LEAST AS COLD AS THIS PAST WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE LOW END POTENTIAL
OF COLD AIR MASSES VERY WELL (AND IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO
ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE)...SO WE ARE BLENDING 00Z ECMWF/NAM WITH
EXTRA WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LOSING AMPLITUDE QUICKLY AS SIGNIFICANT ENERGY LINING
UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO EXERT
CONTROL AND SUBSUME MIDDLE AND HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE STRUCTURE.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
MOST OF WESTERN REGION DAYS 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/12Z. SURFACE WINDS THRU 23/18Z GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THEN INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CARLAW/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 230929
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERATE
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THIS...ALONG
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM BRUSHING BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL COMBINE TO
USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MARKED WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND WILL REVERSE TODAY AS AN
IMPULSE BRUSHES BY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...USHERING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN OF FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE TEMPERATURES TO COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
CARVE DOWN THE AMPLIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MONDAY...BRINGING US
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SPILLING OVER FROM NEW MEXICO. THE
POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...BUT MAY BE MITIGATED BY AN ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT RETURN FLOW IN EASTERN AREAS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THOSE TO BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE
OF THE SEASON TO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY (INCLUDING METRO TUCSON). RIGHT
NOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THAT. AS MENTIONED...THE EASTERLY WINDS MAY TAKE THE EDGE OFF LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT ALL IT TAKES IS FOR THEM TO DIE OFF A FEW MINUTES
AROUND SUNRISE. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN FREEZES AND HARD
FREEZES WILL BE AT LEAST AS COLD AS THIS PAST WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS TYPICALLY DOES NOT HANDLE THE LOW END POTENTIAL
OF COLD AIR MASSES VERY WELL (AND IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO
ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE)...SO WE ARE BLENDING 00Z ECMWF/NAM WITH
EXTRA WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LOSING AMPLITUDE QUICKLY AS SIGNIFICANT ENERGY LINING
UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS TO EXERT
CONTROL AND SUBSUME MIDDLE AND HIGHER LATITUDE RIDGE STRUCTURE.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
MOST OF WESTERN REGION DAYS 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
PERIODS OF HIGH CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU 24/12Z. SURFACE WINDS THRU 23/18Z GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THEN INCREASING W/NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS EAST OF KTUS AND 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT
KTUS/KOLS TERMINALS THRU 24/02Z. GENERALLY E/SE SURFACE WINDS
RELAXING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS AT
10 KFT OF 35 TO 45 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 24/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED UPPER GILA VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL...HOWEVER FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN AND AROUND SAFFORD THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CARLAW/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 230330
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH JUST SOME
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM...OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUCSON WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING OF 33 DEGREES AND 30 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. OUR GRIDDED
FORECAST IS ALREADY REFLECTING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE THIS AS TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. NOTE THAT THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE FOR TUCSON IS NOVEMBER
25TH SO THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RIGHT ON TIME. NO UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THRU 23/18Z. SURFACE
WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 230330
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH JUST SOME
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM...OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUCSON WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING OF 33 DEGREES AND 30 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. OUR GRIDDED
FORECAST IS ALREADY REFLECTING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE THIS AS TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. NOTE THAT THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE FOR TUCSON IS NOVEMBER
25TH SO THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RIGHT ON TIME. NO UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THRU 23/18Z. SURFACE
WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 230330
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUIET EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH JUST SOME
CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM...OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUCSON WITH LOWS MONDAY
MORNING OF 33 DEGREES AND 30 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. OUR GRIDDED
FORECAST IS ALREADY REFLECTING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE THIS AS TUCSON COULD SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. NOTE THAT THE AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE FOR TUCSON IS NOVEMBER
25TH SO THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RIGHT ON TIME. NO UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THRU 23/18Z. SURFACE
WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND LESS THAN 10
KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 222131
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND END UP IN NEW MEXICO LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WHILE DRY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION KICKING UP A NW BREEZE...MAINLY FOCUSING
ON GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER GILA
VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY WILL KICK UP
A LIGHTER NW BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EAST OF TUCSON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS...LIKELY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY HAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
THE TUCSON AREA MONDAY MORNING AND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON THE 17TH.
NAM...EKD AND SREF GUIDANCE IS RATHER COOL WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING WHILE THE GFS IS A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER.  LOOKING BACK AT THE
17TH (SIMILAR TO THIS EVENT) THE SAME GUIDANCE SITUATION OCCURRED
THEN WITH THE NAM AND EKD COLDER AND GFS WARMER.  VERIFICATION
INDICATES THAT GFS MOS ENDED UP 6 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR KTUS WHILE
THE OTHER NAM AND EKD WERE WITHIN 1 DEGREE.  BASED ON THAT I TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY MORNING 3-4 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY...COLD MORNINGS CONTINUE WITH
SUBFREEZING READINGS EAST OF TUCSON.  HOWEVER AN EASTERLY BREEZE
SHOULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE TUCSON
AREA.

FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES...PUSHING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FLATTENS THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER CU SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 23/03Z. FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT FROM THE NW THRU
23/18Z. SURFACE WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 222131
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY THE AREA LATER SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  A
SECOND SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHTER WESTERLY BREEZE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND END UP IN NEW MEXICO LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT.  WHILE DRY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION KICKING UP A NW BREEZE...MAINLY FOCUSING
ON GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER GILA
VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY WILL KICK UP
A LIGHTER NW BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EAST OF TUCSON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS...LIKELY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY HAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EARLIER THIS MONTH.

MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN
THE TUCSON AREA MONDAY MORNING AND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON THE 17TH.
NAM...EKD AND SREF GUIDANCE IS RATHER COOL WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING WHILE THE GFS IS A FAIR AMOUNT WARMER.  LOOKING BACK AT THE
17TH (SIMILAR TO THIS EVENT) THE SAME GUIDANCE SITUATION OCCURRED
THEN WITH THE NAM AND EKD COLDER AND GFS WARMER.  VERIFICATION
INDICATES THAT GFS MOS ENDED UP 6 DEGREES TOO WARM FOR KTUS WHILE
THE OTHER NAM AND EKD WERE WITHIN 1 DEGREE.  BASED ON THAT I TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN MONDAY MORNING 3-4 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY...COLD MORNINGS CONTINUE WITH
SUBFREEZING READINGS EAST OF TUCSON.  HOWEVER AN EASTERLY BREEZE
SHOULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE TUCSON
AREA.

FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES...PUSHING NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FLATTENS THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
CURRENTLY...SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER CU SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 23/03Z. FEW-SCT CIRRUS TONIGHT FROM THE NW THRU
23/18Z. SURFACE WINDS THRU 23/18Z...GENERALLY LIGHT...DIURNAL...AND
LESS THAN 10 KTS. THEREAFTER NW WIND INCREASING LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 221543
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES AS THIS WEEKEND LAST
YEAR WE AWOKE TO ABUNDANT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THANKS TO A
RATHER WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING METRO TUCSON RECEIVED JUST OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WHILE THIS YEAR WE AWOKE TO CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND RATHER
QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS REACHING THE MID 60S BY NOON
AS WE HEAD TO A HIGH NEAR 72.

THEN NEXT ON THE HORIZON IS A RATHER STRONG TROUGH THAT RIPPED INTO
THE PACIFIC NW LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON ITS WAY TO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR
US AS IT PASSES HOWEVER IT WILL KICK UP A DECENT W TO NW BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON NE OF TUCSON.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GILA
VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 30S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD COLDER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY WILL
KICK UP THE WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS WAS ON SUNDAY.

THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EAST OF TUCSON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PUSHING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE TUCSON AREA AT LEAST
ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES...PUSHING NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  MILD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
A FEW CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG
TERMINALS. SOME CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH
23/18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 221543
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES AS THIS WEEKEND LAST
YEAR WE AWOKE TO ABUNDANT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THANKS TO A
RATHER WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING METRO TUCSON RECEIVED JUST OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WHILE THIS YEAR WE AWOKE TO CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND RATHER
QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS REACHING THE MID 60S BY NOON
AS WE HEAD TO A HIGH NEAR 72.

THEN NEXT ON THE HORIZON IS A RATHER STRONG TROUGH THAT RIPPED INTO
THE PACIFIC NW LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON ITS WAY TO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR
US AS IT PASSES HOWEVER IT WILL KICK UP A DECENT W TO NW BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON NE OF TUCSON.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GILA
VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 30S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD COLDER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY WILL
KICK UP THE WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS WAS ON SUNDAY.

THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EAST OF TUCSON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PUSHING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE TUCSON AREA AT LEAST
ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES...PUSHING NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  MILD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
A FEW CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG
TERMINALS. SOME CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH
23/18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 221543
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES AS THIS WEEKEND LAST
YEAR WE AWOKE TO ABUNDANT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THANKS TO A
RATHER WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING METRO TUCSON RECEIVED JUST OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WHILE THIS YEAR WE AWOKE TO CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPS.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND RATHER
QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS REACHING THE MID 60S BY NOON
AS WE HEAD TO A HIGH NEAR 72.

THEN NEXT ON THE HORIZON IS A RATHER STRONG TROUGH THAT RIPPED INTO
THE PACIFIC NW LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON ITS WAY TO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR
US AS IT PASSES HOWEVER IT WILL KICK UP A DECENT W TO NW BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON NE OF TUCSON.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GILA
VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 30S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD COLDER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A SECOND REINFORCING SHOT ON MONDAY WILL
KICK UP THE WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS WAS ON SUNDAY.

THIS COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES EAST OF TUCSON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PUSHING VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE TUCSON AREA AT LEAST
ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES...PUSHING NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  MILD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
A FEW CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG
TERMINALS. SOME CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH
23/18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE LOW
NOW DIGGING JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BEFORE CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR
TEXAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES.

A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DEEPEN INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. COLDER AIR
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL OVER INTO ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AS
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIS COLDER AIR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE TEMPERATURES FOR COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. EASTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROBABLY NOT HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH PUSH INTO THE STATE TO BRING A
FREEZE TO METRO TUCSON. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN OUTLYING AREAS AND
COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
GENERAL WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BUT LOSES
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES SO. THE GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL IMPULSE THAT RIDES INTO THE BUCKLING RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
MORE CONSTANT PERFORMANCE FROM A LESS AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF AND HINTED
AT BY 144HR UKMET BLEND. THIS FEATURE MAY ONLY BE A PRECURSOR THAT
HELPS SET THE TABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN
REGION DAYS 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
WITH THE RECENT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OVERNIGHT
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THRU
22/16Z AT KOLS. OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH 22/18Z. THEN A FEW
CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG TERMINALS. SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 23/12Z. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/CARLAW/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS IN SOME EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE LOW
NOW DIGGING JUST SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BEFORE CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR
TEXAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES.

A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BASIN TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL DEEPEN INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. COLDER AIR
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL SPILL OVER INTO ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS AS
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THIS COLDER AIR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE TEMPERATURES FOR COLDER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. EASTERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROBABLY NOT HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH PUSH INTO THE STATE TO BRING A
FREEZE TO METRO TUCSON. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN OUTLYING AREAS AND
COLDER LOCATIONS AROUND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY WILL FLIRT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND GFS MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
GENERAL WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BUT LOSES
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES SO. THE GFS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL IMPULSE THAT RIDES INTO THE BUCKLING RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
MORE CONSTANT PERFORMANCE FROM A LESS AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF AND HINTED
AT BY 144HR UKMET BLEND. THIS FEATURE MAY ONLY BE A PRECURSOR THAT
HELPS SET THE TABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING WESTERN
REGION DAYS 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
WITH THE RECENT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OVERNIGHT
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THRU
22/16Z AT KOLS. OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH 22/18Z. THEN A FEW
CU POSSIBLE THRU 23/03Z...PRIMARILY AT KOLS AND KDUG TERMINALS. SOME
CIRRUS ABOVE 20 KFT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 23/12Z. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/CARLAW/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 220437
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PREVAIL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR...AS OF
9 PM...PLACED THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES...MOVING ESE. EARLIER
THIS EVENING THERE WERE A FEW MODERATE CELLS SW OF TUCSON. SINCE 8
PM...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
WITH NOGALES RECORDING RAINFALL OF 0.04". HAD A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES EARLIER TODAY ACROSS INTNL BORDER AREA OF TOHONO OODHAM
NATION. THOSE LIGHTING STRIKES NOW ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS THRU ABOUT 2 AM
SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TRENDS. WITH THE RAINFALL NEAR NOGALES COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED PATCHY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES AS OF 23/04Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE
ACROSS FAR NRN SONORA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THRU 23/09Z ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL E OF KOLS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP NEAR
KOLS AFT 23/09Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...THUS WILL LEAVE
BR OUT OF KOLS 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE AFT 22/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
UPPER GILA VALLEY SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF
20-25 MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY HOWEVER WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.  OTHERWISE DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220437
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PREVAIL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR...AS OF
9 PM...PLACED THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES...MOVING ESE. EARLIER
THIS EVENING THERE WERE A FEW MODERATE CELLS SW OF TUCSON. SINCE 8
PM...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
WITH NOGALES RECORDING RAINFALL OF 0.04". HAD A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES EARLIER TODAY ACROSS INTNL BORDER AREA OF TOHONO OODHAM
NATION. THOSE LIGHTING STRIKES NOW ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER NEAR THE
CORE OF THE LOW. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS THRU ABOUT 2 AM
SATURDAY. WENT AHEAD AND MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TRENDS. WITH THE RAINFALL NEAR NOGALES COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED PATCHY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOGALES AS OF 23/04Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE
ACROSS FAR NRN SONORA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THRU 23/09Z ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL E OF KOLS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP NEAR
KOLS AFT 23/09Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...THUS WILL LEAVE
BR OUT OF KOLS 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE AFT 22/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
UPPER GILA VALLEY SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF
20-25 MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY HOWEVER WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.  OTHERWISE DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 212203
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PREVAIL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES OVER
THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION WEST OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF
SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED DURING THE PAST HOUR SE OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND SWRN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA THIS
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF TUCSON.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD ACROSS NRN SONORA LATE TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA. LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM THIS PRECIP EVENT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS THIS
EVENING WILL FALL TO AROUND 7500 FEET...WITH ONLY FLURRIES TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS SUN AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS MAY ALSO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE LESS VERSUS SUN.
THEREAFTER...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST TUE
WILL MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY. CLEAR
SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
EAST WINDS WED-THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRI UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT A FEW DEGS OF DAILY COOLING SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY
ERN LOCALES APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS...OR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA WILL MOVE SE INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE ISO TO SCT -SHRA AND A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW REMAINING -SHRA NEAR KDUG THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS DECK
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND
WILL BE E OF THE AREA BY 22/04Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE WRN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL DEVELOP TO THE E AND SE THRU 22/04Z THEN PRIMARILY
REMAIN OVER THE SE CORNER THROUGH 22/12Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFT 22/12Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 23/00Z EXCEPT FOR LOCAL 10-15 KT SLY WINDS THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT POSSIBILITY
REMAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THEN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY SHOULD SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30S
ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. RH
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 212203
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL PREVAIL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES OVER
THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION WEST OF TUCSON AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF
SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
DETECTED DURING THE PAST HOUR SE OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND SWRN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA THIS
EVENING...AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF TUCSON.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD ACROSS NRN SONORA LATE TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA. LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM THIS PRECIP EVENT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS THIS
EVENING WILL FALL TO AROUND 7500 FEET...WITH ONLY FLURRIES TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS SUN AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS MAY ALSO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE LESS VERSUS SUN.
THEREAFTER...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ADJACENT THE WEST COAST TUE
WILL MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY. CLEAR
SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
EAST WINDS WED-THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRI UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT A FEW DEGS OF DAILY COOLING SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY
ERN LOCALES APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL NOT
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS...OR AT LEAST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.
AN UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA WILL MOVE SE INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE ISO TO SCT -SHRA AND A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW REMAINING -SHRA NEAR KDUG THRU LATE TONIGHT. THE CIRRUS DECK
OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND
WILL BE E OF THE AREA BY 22/04Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE WRN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL DEVELOP TO THE E AND SE THRU 22/04Z THEN PRIMARILY
REMAIN OVER THE SE CORNER THROUGH 22/12Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFT 22/12Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 23/00Z EXCEPT FOR LOCAL 10-15 KT SLY WINDS THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PASSING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT POSSIBILITY
REMAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THEN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY SHOULD SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS INTO THE 30S
ON SUNDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. RH
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






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