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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241513
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 15Z IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT
THIS AFTERNOON 8-12 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL...OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
KTUS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGS F TODAY...
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH ONGOING FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240347
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240347
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 232102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST CONTINUES
AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231524
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH NEAR TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TODAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT 6-10 DEGS F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREV DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 24/12Z. FEW
CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL 23/18Z-24/00Z MAINLY NEAR TERRAIN CLOSE TO
THE AZ/NM BORDER. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORMAL
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING
OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE LOOKS FINE FOR OVERALL PATTERN WITH
ECMWF/NAM THICKNESS TRENDS PREFERRED FOR DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ORIENTATION OF RIDGE AND THICKNESS FIELDS FAVOR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM TUCSON AND NOGALES EASTWARD.
STILL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF 95 AT TUCSON/TIA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH LATEST OCCURRENCE ON RECORD THE 26TH (1935 AND 2001). STILL
LOOKS JUST A HAIR SHORT OF THAT BUT NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE AVERAGE LAST OCCURRENCE IS OCTOBER 5TH.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALREADY RESPONDING TO WEST COAST TROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS DIFFERENTIALS ACTUALLY A
TAD HIGHER FROM TUCSON EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850-700MB
VALUES RANGING FROM 165.5 TO 170DAM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT FAIRLY DRY TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR STILL SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COOLING
TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH NEAR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING
OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE LOOKS FINE FOR OVERALL PATTERN WITH
ECMWF/NAM THICKNESS TRENDS PREFERRED FOR DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ORIENTATION OF RIDGE AND THICKNESS FIELDS FAVOR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM TUCSON AND NOGALES EASTWARD.
STILL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF 95 AT TUCSON/TIA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH LATEST OCCURRENCE ON RECORD THE 26TH (1935 AND 2001). STILL
LOOKS JUST A HAIR SHORT OF THAT BUT NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE AVERAGE LAST OCCURRENCE IS OCTOBER 5TH.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALREADY RESPONDING TO WEST COAST TROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS DIFFERENTIALS ACTUALLY A
TAD HIGHER FROM TUCSON EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850-700MB
VALUES RANGING FROM 165.5 TO 170DAM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT FAIRLY DRY TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR STILL SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 24/12Z. FEW AT
8-12K FT AGL 23/18Z-24/00Z MAINLY NEAR TERRAIN CLOSE TO THE AZ/NM
BORDER. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORMAL
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 230339
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT. INHERITED GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON
TRACK BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCALES THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95
DEGS F RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL













000
FXUS65 KTWC 230339
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT. INHERITED GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON
TRACK BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCALES THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95
DEGS F RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL













000
FXUS65 KTWC 222121
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS
INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...
AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F
RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/23Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU 23/03Z AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 221701
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.

THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 221701
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.

THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW KICKING IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
FALLING INTO THE .6 RANGE THIS MORNING. TROUGH THAT GUIDED THE
SHEARED REMAINS OF THAT LOW AWAY ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
AMPLIFYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES WILL HELP GENERATE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. FOCUS OF THE STRONG
850-700MB THICKNESS INCREASES THROUGH EASTERN PIMA...SANTA
CRUZ...COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST ECMWF VALUES
AROUND 165.5DAM FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHT TRENDS WILL START TO BUCKLE
SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS REFLECTION LAGGING WITH VALUES
ACTUALLY INCREASING A LITTLE. STILL ON WATCH FOR POSSIBLE 95 AT TIA
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FLIRTING WITH THE LATEST 95 ON RECORD
(CURRENTLY ON THE 26TH FOR TUCSON FROM BOTH 1934 AND 2001). VERY
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS...BUT
BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS NOT QUITE. EITHER WAY THE STORY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT DRY (THIS FAR SOUTH) TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/09Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH BRUSHES
BY THROUGH THE REGION BUT REMAINING DRY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN
INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
TROUGH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AROUND THE REGION WITH THE 22/00Z TWC RAOB
INDICATING A PWAT DECREASE OF 0.12 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES F LOWER
THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WE HEAD
INTO A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STILL...LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BUILD UP SOME
SPOTTY CU FOCUSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW/LADER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL









000
FXUS65 KTWC 220344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AROUND THE REGION WITH THE 22/00Z TWC RAOB
INDICATING A PWAT DECREASE OF 0.12 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES F LOWER
THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WE HEAD
INTO A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STILL...LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BUILD UP SOME
SPOTTY CU FOCUSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW/LADER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL









000
FXUS65 KTWC 212211
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SSEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INHERITED POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON
AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES THUR-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS FRI AS THE WARMEST DAY...SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS MON...
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS SUN
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
22/04Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 212211
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SSEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INHERITED POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON
AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES THUR-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS FRI AS THE WARMEST DAY...SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS MON...
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS SUN
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
22/04Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







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