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000
FXUS65 KTWC 311003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HAPPY HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER WARM DAY TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS BEING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF HALLOWEEN RECORD HIGHS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAND. SO EXPECT THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY VERSUS EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HALLOWEEN WARMTH COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

AS OCTOBER CLOSES OUT ON A NEAR RECORD WARMTH NOTE...NOVEMBER WILL
START OFF WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL
FINALLY. THE PACIFIC TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND. WHAT IS NOT A GIVEN IS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKING THE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED THE WETTER NAM/NAMDNG5 MODELS WITH THE NOT AS WET GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOR THE VALLEYS AND
A BETTER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE 1"-2" OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TUESDAY THE COLDEST MORNING AS A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS EAST OF
TUCSON GETTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEREAFTER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH RESPECTS TO
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INFLUENCING OUR
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY/WARMING TREND SOLUTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 11-15K
FT AGL THRU 31/19Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/20Z. SELY SURFACE
WIND AT 5-15 KTS FROM KTUS WEST...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-17 KTS
AND GUSTY EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL THEN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.CLIMATE...HALLOWEEN LATELY AS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY WARM ONE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE
WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916 AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. COUNTING TODAYS FORECAST HIGH OF 92 DEGREES...THIS WILL BE THE
THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 311003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HAPPY HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER WARM DAY TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS BEING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF HALLOWEEN RECORD HIGHS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAND. SO EXPECT THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY VERSUS EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HALLOWEEN WARMTH COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

AS OCTOBER CLOSES OUT ON A NEAR RECORD WARMTH NOTE...NOVEMBER WILL
START OFF WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL
FINALLY. THE PACIFIC TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND. WHAT IS NOT A GIVEN IS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKING THE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED THE WETTER NAM/NAMDNG5 MODELS WITH THE NOT AS WET GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOR THE VALLEYS AND
A BETTER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE 1"-2" OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TUESDAY THE COLDEST MORNING AS A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS EAST OF
TUCSON GETTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEREAFTER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH RESPECTS TO
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INFLUENCING OUR
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY/WARMING TREND SOLUTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 11-15K
FT AGL THRU 31/19Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/20Z. SELY SURFACE
WIND AT 5-15 KTS FROM KTUS WEST...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-17 KTS
AND GUSTY EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL THEN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.CLIMATE...HALLOWEEN LATELY AS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY WARM ONE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE
WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916 AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. COUNTING TODAYS FORECAST HIGH OF 92 DEGREES...THIS WILL BE THE
THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 310355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND THE
MOST RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT
MAX MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT
AFFECTED MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 79 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGS WHICH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH
FOR THIS DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 2001.

THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
EXPECTED/INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST MAINLY TUCSON
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FARTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 310355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND THE
MOST RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT
MAX MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT
AFFECTED MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 79 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGS WHICH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH
FOR THIS DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 2001.

THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
EXPECTED/INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST MAINLY TUCSON
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FARTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 302129
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. WE HAD A RAPID WARM-UP TO 90 AT TIA BY
NOON...BUT THINGS HAVE LEVELED OUT QUITE A BIT. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS STILL
STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SO...ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF
H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRYISH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FURTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.  SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 301639
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
.3 TO .4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. THEY PROBABLY WON`T BE THICK ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE HEATING TRENDS MUCH (AND CAN SOMETIMES EVEN HELP A
LITTLE). SO TODAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH A
FEW WEAKER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS
STILL STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE THROUGH ALL OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STILL LOOKING AT ECMWF CUT-OFF SCENARIOS NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SKEPTICISM DUE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND BETTER CONTINUITY WITH
THE REMAINING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT IS SLOWLY TRENDING FURTHER
EAST AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE CUT-OFF WITH EACH MODEL RUN...BUT
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST. BLEND OF ECWMF/GFS
PREFERRED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT
380 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
TROPICAL STORM VANCE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND EVEN SLOWER AND DEEPER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NO LONGER DRAWING AS
MUCH MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...SHUNTING
MOST OF IT EAST. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301639
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
.3 TO .4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. THEY PROBABLY WON`T BE THICK ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE HEATING TRENDS MUCH (AND CAN SOMETIMES EVEN HELP A
LITTLE). SO TODAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH A
FEW WEAKER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS
STILL STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE THROUGH ALL OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STILL LOOKING AT ECMWF CUT-OFF SCENARIOS NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SKEPTICISM DUE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND BETTER CONTINUITY WITH
THE REMAINING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT IS SLOWLY TRENDING FURTHER
EAST AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE CUT-OFF WITH EACH MODEL RUN...BUT
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST. BLEND OF ECWMF/GFS
PREFERRED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT
380 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
TROPICAL STORM VANCE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND EVEN SLOWER AND DEEPER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NO LONGER DRAWING AS
MUCH MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...SHUNTING
MOST OF IT EAST. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300934
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS OF 2 AM ACROSS SE AZ. HOWEVER
THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS WERE SIMILAR
IN PLACING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER AZ/NM BORDER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2-4
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH PICKING UP A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AND ADVECTING
IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HALLOWEEN.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND COOLER WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROF MAKES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TROF AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS THRU 30/17Z...THEN
INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT
10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 300356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
856 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NOT TO MENTION MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THESE CLOUD
ELEMENTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MY FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH DOUGLAS REPORTING 58 DEGS AND
TUCSON 77 DEGREES. THESE READINGS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE
PICKED UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A WEAK EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

TO GO ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. A JUMP
IN 700MB DEWPTS FROM THE SOUTH IN AREAS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
AND THE SUBSEQUENT INITIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WEST COAST
VERY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THEN SPLIT A DECENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO A CUTOFF LOW THROUGH
ARIZONA AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEANS HINTED THAT THIS WAS NOT GOING TO
END UP BEING A REASONABLE RESOLUTION WITH CUT-OFF POSITIONS BEING
CLOSER TO THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST OUTLIERS. ALSO...NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATION 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS (AS A FUNCTION OF LEAD TIME
AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS) WERE VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR THE ECMWF CUT-OFF POSITION. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 12Z
GFS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF
ALSO TRENDED THAT WAY WITH A WEAKER AND HIGHER LATITUDE CUT-OFF THAT
WAS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY HINT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FIELDS EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL WORTH KEEPING
ONE EYE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO THIS AFTERNOON.

SO THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND (WITH
NORTHERN ARIZONA A LITTLE STRONGER) FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRAGMENTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WARMER THAN
THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
FEW COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 292142
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

TO GO ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. A JUMP
IN 700MB DEWPTS FROM THE SOUTH IN AREAS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
AND THE SUBSEQUENT INITIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WEST COAST
VERY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THEN SPLIT A DECENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO A CUTOFF LOW THROUGH
ARIZONA AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEANS HINTED THAT THIS WAS NOT GOING TO
END UP BEING A REASONABLE RESOLUTION WITH CUT-OFF POSITIONS BEING
CLOSER TO THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST OUTLIERS. ALSO...NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATION 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS (AS A FUNCTION OF LEAD TIME
AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS) WERE VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR THE ECMWF CUT-OFF POSITION. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 12Z
GFS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF
ALSO TRENDED THAT WAY WITH A WEAKER AND HIGHER LATITUDE CUT-OFF THAT
WAS ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY HINT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FIELDS EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL WORTH KEEPING
ONE EYE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO THIS AFTERNOON.

SO THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND (WITH
NORTHERN ARIZONA A LITTLE STRONGER) FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRAGMENTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WARMER THAN
THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
FEW COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 291636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS. A TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY FRIDAY EVENING
OR SO. NOTHING HEAVY. ALSO KEEPING ONE EYE ON THE TROPICS WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROBABLY FORMING INTO A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO. IT
COULD END UP PLAYING A PART IN OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BROUGHT SOME
MOISTURE FROM IT IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION AROUND MID WEEK...BUT 12Z
GFS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES A LITTLE FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. WE`LL SEE HOW THE 12Z ECMWF TREATS THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. FOR TODAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ON EAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM LATE OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED IN 2011 AND 2012...WITH LOCAL
SPOTS NEAR RECORDS ON HALLOWEEN. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHS CLOUDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANGES COMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3-11 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON WEST.
COOLER YET ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5-12 COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
UP IN THE WHITES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA DROPS DOWN IN THE STATE
ON BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE
OUT A NEW TROF OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW SW OF TUCSON LATER ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME BOTH MODELS HAVE AGREED ON THIS IDEA. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES EASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THUS MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN FROM
THE EAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID HAVE GONE AHEAD A
THREW IN SOME LOW END POPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AND SEE IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KTWC 291636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS. A TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY FRIDAY EVENING
OR SO. NOTHING HEAVY. ALSO KEEPING ONE EYE ON THE TROPICS WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROBABLY FORMING INTO A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO. IT
COULD END UP PLAYING A PART IN OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BROUGHT SOME
MOISTURE FROM IT IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION AROUND MID WEEK...BUT 12Z
GFS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES A LITTLE FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. WE`LL SEE HOW THE 12Z ECMWF TREATS THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. FOR TODAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ON EAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM LATE OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED IN 2011 AND 2012...WITH LOCAL
SPOTS NEAR RECORDS ON HALLOWEEN. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHS CLOUDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANGES COMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3-11 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON WEST.
COOLER YET ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5-12 COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
UP IN THE WHITES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA DROPS DOWN IN THE STATE
ON BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE
OUT A NEW TROF OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW SW OF TUCSON LATER ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME BOTH MODELS HAVE AGREED ON THIS IDEA. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES EASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THUS MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN FROM
THE EAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID HAVE GONE AHEAD A
THREW IN SOME LOW END POPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AND SEE IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KTWC 290945
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ON EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
RATHER WARM LATE OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED IN 2011 AND 2012...WITH LOCAL SPOTS NEAR RECORDS ON
HALLOWEEN. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHS CLOUDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANGES COMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3-11 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON WEST. COOLER
YET ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5-12 COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH
LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY UP
IN THE WHITES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA DROPS DOWN IN THE STATE
ON BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE
OUT A NEW TROF OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW SW OF TUCSON LATER ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME BOTH MODELS HAVE AGREED ON THIS IDEA. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES EASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THUS MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN FROM
THE EAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID HAVE GONE AHEAD A
THREW IN SOME LOW END POPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AND SEE IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 290338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
838 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPED BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH PER 00Z KTWC SOUNDING. DRY WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED WIND AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN FEATURES WITH SOME
MODEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB. TEMPS RUNNING
NEAR CLIMO AGAIN TONIGHT.

ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS PHASING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AND INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD IN SOME SPOTS FRIDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BY MONDAY...SO STILL
COMFORTABLE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO. THE STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
HELPING TO DRIVE THE RIDGE AMPLITUDE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT RIDES INTO THE BACK OF
THE RIDGE SATURDAY. WEAKER REINFORCING ENERGY WILL DIG THE TROUGH A
LITTLE DEEPER AS IT PUSHES ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SE AZ SUNDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IT WILL BE A WEAKENING SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE COOLER AIR BEHIND IT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DROP FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON TIMING ISSUES IF THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT TENDS TO STALL IN AN WEST-EAST ORIENTATION SUNDAY.

COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COULD TOUCH FREEZING IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS SUCH AS WILLCOX AND DOUGLAS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...GL
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/FRENCH










000
FXUS65 KTWC 282129
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN FEATURES WITH SOME MODEST
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR
CLIMO AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS PHASING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AND INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO AND POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD IN SOME SPOTS FRIDAY.

FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BY MONDAY...SO STILL
COMFORTABLE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO. THE STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
HELPING TO DRIVE THE RIDGE AMPLITUDE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT RIDES INTO THE BACK OF
THE RIDGE SATURDAY. WEAKER REINFORCING ENERGY WILL DIG THE TROUGH A
LITTLE DEEPER AS IT PUSHES ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SE AZ SUNDAY. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IT WILL BE A WEAKENING SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE COOLER AIR BEHIND IT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DROP FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON TIMING ISSUES IF THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT TENDS TO STALL IN AN WEST-EAST ORIENTATION SUNDAY.

COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COULD TOUCH FREEZING IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS SUCH AS WILLCOX AND DOUGLAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...MEYER/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 281618
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN FEATURES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE 800MB. ROOM FOR
SURFACE DEWPTS TO CRATER AT LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
GENERATING A WEAK CU FIELD. ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED AS THE SHORT TERM STORY THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A REGIONAL
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A GENERAL ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/17Z.
EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A 542 DM CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXISTS FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. IN
BETWEEN...WESTERLY/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS TRANSPORTING
DRY AIR INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

28/00Z MODEL SUITE CONSISTING OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FORECASTING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT
WEATHER WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CU...ALONG WITH
YET ANOTHER STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THIS POINT...APPEARS AS IF THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DISPLACEMENT
FROM THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER READOUTS INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF 20-30 KT
SURFACE GUSTS SATURDAY WITH NEAR 30 KT FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. GUSTY WINDS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER...WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO AND DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS DEPICT DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...MEYER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
PREV DISCUSSION...CARLAW/JG








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