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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300430
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONE PULSE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A SEVERE WIND GUST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT
PIONEER AIRFIELD NEAR SIERRA VISTA. AS OF 830 PM...ALL IS QUIET IN
MY FORECAST AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOT.
ON THE EVENING UPDATE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE INTNL BORDER
WHILE REMOVING POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE OTHER ITEM I WILL BE
UPDATING WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THAT THEY
ARE NOT HOT ENOUGH ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS WERE CORRECT
FOR HIGH IN TUCSON TODAY AND THEY ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
NOT HOT ENOUGH EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NR INTNL BORDER E OF KOLS TIL
30/09Z. OTHERWISE...OCNL BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY E OF
KTUS THRU 30/11Z THEN CLRG. SFC WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
WED MRNG. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MNLY S-E OF KTUS WED AFTER 30/19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300430
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONE PULSE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A SEVERE WIND GUST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT
PIONEER AIRFIELD NEAR SIERRA VISTA. AS OF 830 PM...ALL IS QUIET IN
MY FORECAST AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOT.
ON THE EVENING UPDATE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE INTNL BORDER
WHILE REMOVING POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE OTHER ITEM I WILL BE
UPDATING WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THAT THEY
ARE NOT HOT ENOUGH ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS WERE CORRECT
FOR HIGH IN TUCSON TODAY AND THEY ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
NOT HOT ENOUGH EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NR INTNL BORDER E OF KOLS TIL
30/09Z. OTHERWISE...OCNL BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY E OF
KTUS THRU 30/11Z THEN CLRG. SFC WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
WED MRNG. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MNLY S-E OF KTUS WED AFTER 30/19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 292120
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY. MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW STAYS IN PLACE.
MODELS SHOW THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN IMPULSE TO HELP
TRIGGER AND ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICTED A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WEST COAST.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DRYING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TODAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL INTO
THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 292120
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY. MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW STAYS IN PLACE.
MODELS SHOW THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN IMPULSE TO HELP
TRIGGER AND ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICTED A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WEST COAST.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DRYING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TODAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL INTO
THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 291603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
902 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SONORA MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF DOUGLAS THIS MORNING. SOME
CLOUDINESS WAS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT
OVERALL THE MORNING STARTED OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL SEE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE UNDER A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKED ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
REMAINING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF TUCSON NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS AFTER ABOUT
30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING
FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/ TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING
TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS









000
FXUS65 KTWC 291603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
902 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER SONORA MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF DOUGLAS THIS MORNING. SOME
CLOUDINESS WAS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...BUT
OVERALL THE MORNING STARTED OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL SEE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY STABLE UNDER A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKED ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
REMAINING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF TUCSON NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS AFTER ABOUT
30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING
FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/ TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING
TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 291016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR BY
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUES VALID 0730Z RANGED FROM 1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 1.55 INCHES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM
TUCSON WWD AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A
LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS
AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 291016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR BY
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUES VALID 0730Z RANGED FROM 1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 1.55 INCHES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM
TUCSON WWD AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A
LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS
AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 290404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER...OTHERWISE DRY. CONTINUED VERY LOW THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK
AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX WELL TO OUR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SIERRA MADRES...STRADDLING THE
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER AND ALSO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE RIM COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
NORTH. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
REMAINS...AND EVEN THAT RESIDES OUTSIDE OF MY FORECAST AREA OVER
PARTS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE DID HAVE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. THAT
SAID...WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN
CASE OUTFLOWS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HELP TRIGGER SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 89 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95
DEGS...WHICH WAS 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM
TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST RECENT TEMP TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE HAD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9-12K FT WITH SCT 20K FT
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN MOSTLY SKC. CLOUDS PERHAPS
LINGERING WITH A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KDUG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED
STARTING AS SOON AS TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES
NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS
WILL TEND TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
WHILE WE HEAT UP SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRENDS UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY THAT NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
LAST NIGHT FROM WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT
LEAST KEEP INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 290404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER...OTHERWISE DRY. CONTINUED VERY LOW THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK
AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX WELL TO OUR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SIERRA MADRES...STRADDLING THE
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER AND ALSO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE RIM COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
NORTH. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
REMAINS...AND EVEN THAT RESIDES OUTSIDE OF MY FORECAST AREA OVER
PARTS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE DID HAVE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. THAT
SAID...WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN
CASE OUTFLOWS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HELP TRIGGER SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 89 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95
DEGS...WHICH WAS 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM
TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST RECENT TEMP TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE HAD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9-12K FT WITH SCT 20K FT
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN MOSTLY SKC. CLOUDS PERHAPS
LINGERING WITH A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KDUG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED
STARTING AS SOON AS TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES
NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS
WILL TEND TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
WHILE WE HEAT UP SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRENDS UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY THAT NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
LAST NIGHT FROM WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT
LEAST KEEP INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK








000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK








000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS











000
FXUS65 KTWC 281624
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOT JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 281624
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOT JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 281112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 281112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 281100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 281100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 280410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
911 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAINED
CONFINED MOSTLY TO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PROMPTED BOTH SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE OF THE FIRST STORMS TO DEVELOP
WAS OVER NORTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY...
WHICH BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY
FROM NEW MEXICO MADE IT AS FAR AS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY
AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CATALINAS...BUT DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE CURRENTLY SPILLING
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS. SO FAR NOT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...STORMS
CONTINUE FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE SOUTHWARD TO HEREFORD AND NACO AND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF BISBEE. THESE STORMS CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST SONORA.
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SPREAD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...WESTERN
GRAHAM COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST IN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PHOENIX AREA.

I INHERITED 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PIMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. FOR NOW I
THINK I WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT
HIT...SUCH AS GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...BUT LEAVE THE REST
"AS IS". AFTER MIDNIGHT I HAVE BASICALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE
POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL
THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER 29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4
TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM
STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK








000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK








000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 271644
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING. A STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY WE INDEED HAD SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND MID
LEVEL DRYING DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH WERE UNABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THERE WAS PLENTY OF
UNTAPPED ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OUTFLOWS
PUSHING ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WERE ABLE TO TRIGGER
STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WE WILL SEE A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD) DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). AFTER INITIAL STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN MAINLY EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
SHOULD MANAGE TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME UPDATES EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/16Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO REDEVELOP EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AFTER 28/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271644
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING. A STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY WE INDEED HAD SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND MID
LEVEL DRYING DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH WERE UNABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THERE WAS PLENTY OF
UNTAPPED ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OUTFLOWS
PUSHING ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WERE ABLE TO TRIGGER
STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WE WILL SEE A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD) DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). AFTER INITIAL STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN MAINLY EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
SHOULD MANAGE TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME UPDATES EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/16Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO REDEVELOP EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AFTER 28/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 271055
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1050Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
HAPPENED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD.
FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF TUCSON AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 271055
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1050Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
HAPPENED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD.
FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF TUCSON AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






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