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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
151 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN SHORT TERM AS SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL IN FACT ENHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO REDIRECT THE MOISTURE FETCH
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
STILL...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER INCREASE TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS SUPPRESSED SOME WHAT. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL FALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...WITH DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 13 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER READINGS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...85

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
151 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN SHORT TERM AS SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL IN FACT ENHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS RIDGING LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO REDIRECT THE MOISTURE FETCH
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD THAN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
STILL...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER INCREASE TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS SUPPRESSED SOME WHAT. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHERE AND HOW MUCH THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL FALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS...WITH DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 13 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. COOLER READINGS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS EXPECTED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...85

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281551
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARE READY OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A MAX TEMP OF 85 DEGREES FOR TUCSON...WHICH
IS THE RECORD FOR TODAY SET IN 1945. CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT 82. DON`T SEE NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS POINT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SECTIONS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 310 AM MST FRI/...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED
ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV
28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND  WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281551
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARE READY OFF TO A WARM START THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A MAX TEMP OF 85 DEGREES FOR TUCSON...WHICH
IS THE RECORD FOR TODAY SET IN 1945. CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT 82. DON`T SEE NEED FOR AN UPDATE AT THIS POINT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SECTIONS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 310 AM MST FRI/...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED
ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV
28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND  WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/18Z.
VFR. GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281012
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS ABOVE
20 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KTS...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS...THRU 28/17Z.
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THRU 29/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 281012
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WHICH PRODUCED A VERY WARM
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR WHAT OCCURRED ON TURKEY DAY. A FEW SPOTS WILL ALSO BE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 28TH. GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SWLY, THIS WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. LOW ENDS POPS LATE TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GRADUALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS ABOVE
20 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 20 KTS...GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS...THRU 28/17Z.
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS THRU 29/12Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
20S WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS 10
TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING RH VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AS OF 28/04Z...WITH SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARIZONA AS PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT A BIT OVER TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GRIDS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND WELL WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. KTUS TOPPED OUT
AT 83 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1998...AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF
69 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
SERN AZ TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. THE
RECORD AT KTUS FOR TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN 85 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY STILL OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MANY
LOCALES...HOWEVER SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED SPEEDS AND PERIODIC GUSTINESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AS OF 28/04Z...WITH SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARIZONA AS PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT A BIT OVER TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GRIDS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND WELL WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. KTUS TOPPED OUT
AT 83 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1998...AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF
69 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
SERN AZ TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. THE
RECORD AT KTUS FOR TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN 85 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY STILL OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MANY
LOCALES...HOWEVER SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED SPEEDS AND PERIODIC GUSTINESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AS OF 28/04Z...WITH SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARIZONA AS PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT A BIT OVER TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GRIDS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND WELL WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. KTUS TOPPED OUT
AT 83 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1998...AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF
69 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
SERN AZ TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. THE
RECORD AT KTUS FOR TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN 85 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY STILL OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MANY
LOCALES...HOWEVER SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED SPEEDS AND PERIODIC GUSTINESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AS OF 28/04Z...WITH SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARIZONA AS PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT A BIT OVER TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GRIDS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND WELL WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. KTUS TOPPED OUT
AT 83 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1998...AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF
69 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
SERN AZ TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. THE
RECORD AT KTUS FOR TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN 85 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY STILL OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MANY
LOCALES...HOWEVER SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED SPEEDS AND PERIODIC GUSTINESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 272245
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/120W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NEWD INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WILL FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 272245
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/120W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NEWD INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WILL FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271640
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO AN ELY/SELY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
REGIME. SURFACE WINDS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY ELY/SELY AT 5-15 MPH
AND A GUST TO 22 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT KTUS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S F...
AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 15-20 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-20 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME
WED. 27/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.28 INCH...
STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF A VERY DRY REGIME. 27/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
DEPICTED A 589 DM HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
VICINITY 26N/121W...AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. LIGHT NLY/NELY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY...LOCALLY GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS...AND HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY THEN A FEW TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...OTHERWISE
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. WE`LL MANAGE
TO WARM UP QUICKLY WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

HIGH ENERGY PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. A FAIRLY WET 7 DAY PERIOD IS A GOOD CALL IF YOU LIVE IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
SOUTHERN LATITUDES SUCH AS OURS MAY BE AT THE MERCY OF A FULL
CUT-OFF LOW. TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS AS WELL AS TRYING TO ARRIVE AT ANY
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS COMPARING OPERATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. THERE ARE
MANY TIMES WHEN WE CAN DO A SOLID JOB FORECASTING 6-10 DAYS EVEN
WITH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THEM. OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE GETTING DRIER AND DRIER THIS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
FIRE WEATHER/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 271640
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO AN ELY/SELY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
REGIME. SURFACE WINDS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY ELY/SELY AT 5-15 MPH
AND A GUST TO 22 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT KTUS. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S F...
AND THESE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 15-20 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 5-20 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME
WED. 27/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.28 INCH...
STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF A VERY DRY REGIME. 27/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
DEPICTED A 589 DM HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
VICINITY 26N/121W...AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. LIGHT NLY/NELY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY...LOCALLY GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS...AND HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. THERE ARE NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY THEN A FEW TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...OTHERWISE
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. WE`LL MANAGE
TO WARM UP QUICKLY WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

HIGH ENERGY PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. A FAIRLY WET 7 DAY PERIOD IS A GOOD CALL IF YOU LIVE IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
SOUTHERN LATITUDES SUCH AS OURS MAY BE AT THE MERCY OF A FULL
CUT-OFF LOW. TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS AS WELL AS TRYING TO ARRIVE AT ANY
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS COMPARING OPERATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. THERE ARE
MANY TIMES WHEN WE CAN DO A SOLID JOB FORECASTING 6-10 DAYS EVEN
WITH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THEM. OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE GETTING DRIER AND DRIER THIS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION/AVIATION...FRANCIS
FIRE WEATHER/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER






000
FXUS65 KTWC 270911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. WE`LL MANAGE TO
WARM UP QUICKLY WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

HIGH ENERGY PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. A FAIRLY WET 7 DAY PERIOD IS A GOOD CALL IF YOU LIVE IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
SOUTHERN LATITUDES SUCH AS OURS MAY BE AT THE MERCY OF A FULL
CUT-OFF LOW. TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS AS WELL AS TRYING TO ARRIVE AT ANY
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS COMPARING OPERATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. THERE ARE
MANY TIMES WHEN WE CAN DO A SOLID JOB FORECASTING 6-10 DAYS EVEN
WITH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THEM. OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE GETTING DRIER AND DRIER THIS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...OTHERWISE
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER






000
FXUS65 KTWC 270911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT PHASES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. WE`LL MANAGE TO
WARM UP QUICKLY WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA. DAYTIME HIGHS
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

HIGH ENERGY PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. A FAIRLY WET 7 DAY PERIOD IS A GOOD CALL IF YOU LIVE IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
SOUTHERN LATITUDES SUCH AS OURS MAY BE AT THE MERCY OF A FULL
CUT-OFF LOW. TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE TRENDS AS WELL AS TRYING TO ARRIVE AT ANY
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS COMPARING OPERATIONAL RESOLUTIONS. THERE ARE
MANY TIMES WHEN WE CAN DO A SOLID JOB FORECASTING 6-10 DAYS EVEN
WITH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT THIS IS NOT ONE OF
THEM. OVERALL THE TRENDS ARE GETTING DRIER AND DRIER THIS FAR SOUTH
AND EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 5-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...OTHERWISE
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 270400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FLATTENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 140W/45N AS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. 27/04Z DEWPOINTS
WERE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10-20
DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 270400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FLATTENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 140W/45N AS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. 27/04Z DEWPOINTS
WERE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10-20
DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 270400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FLATTENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 140W/45N AS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. 27/04Z DEWPOINTS
WERE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10-20
DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS









000
FXUS65 KTWC 270400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FLATTENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 140W/45N AS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. 27/04Z DEWPOINTS
WERE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10-20
DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS









000
FXUS65 KTWC 262216
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...590 DM HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 28N/123W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO
THE PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN
EVENTUALLY THRU THE GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 261631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 26/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.27 INCH...STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF A
VERY DRY REGIME. 26/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 591 DM HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY 28N/123W...
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NLY/NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TUE. THERE ARE NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THANKSGIVING MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. OTHER THAN
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE HAD 6-12 DEGREES OF
WARMING BETWEEN H5 AND H7. AS THE RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD WE WILL JUMP
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THIS
MORNING...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY UNSETTLED SEASONAL PATTERN TRYING TO
SET UP FOR US NEXT WEEK. CONSOLIDATING AND THEN REINFORCED ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THEN WHAT? DECENT CHANCE AT A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING MOST OF WESTERN REGION BUT IT`S NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL COME
ACROSS IN ONE PIECE. LATEST ECMWF TRYING TO SPLIT A LITTLE MORE
ENERGY INTO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY LOSES HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT WITH THE INITIAL SHOT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY LEAVING THE SPLIT BEHIND.
PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A FAIR
REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS. WE`LL SEE IF TODAY`S 12Z KEEPS THIS
CUT-OFF OR NEAR CUT-OFF RESOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. INTERESTING THAT
EXPERIMENTAL GFS13 TRENDS ARE ALSO TRENDING BACK TOWARD DEEPER AND
SLOWER ENERGY COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. TIMING GOES OUT THE
WINDOW IF THAT ENERGY GETS CUT OFF. SLOWING THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
BUT STILL DOMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 261631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 26/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.27 INCH...STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF A
VERY DRY REGIME. 26/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A 591 DM HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY 28N/123W...
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NLY/NWLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TUE. THERE ARE NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/18Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU THANKSGIVING MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. OTHER THAN
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE HAD 6-12 DEGREES OF
WARMING BETWEEN H5 AND H7. AS THE RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD WE WILL JUMP
FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THIS
MORNING...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY UNSETTLED SEASONAL PATTERN TRYING TO
SET UP FOR US NEXT WEEK. CONSOLIDATING AND THEN REINFORCED ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THEN WHAT? DECENT CHANCE AT A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING MOST OF WESTERN REGION BUT IT`S NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL COME
ACROSS IN ONE PIECE. LATEST ECMWF TRYING TO SPLIT A LITTLE MORE
ENERGY INTO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY LOSES HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT WITH THE INITIAL SHOT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY LEAVING THE SPLIT BEHIND.
PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A FAIR
REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS. WE`LL SEE IF TODAY`S 12Z KEEPS THIS
CUT-OFF OR NEAR CUT-OFF RESOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. INTERESTING THAT
EXPERIMENTAL GFS13 TRENDS ARE ALSO TRENDING BACK TOWARD DEEPER AND
SLOWER ENERGY COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. TIMING GOES OUT THE
WINDOW IF THAT ENERGY GETS CUT OFF. SLOWING THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
BUT STILL DOMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 260923
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND COOL THIS MORNING...A BIT LESS WIND SO
GENERALLY RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WAS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON THE
00Z KTWC SOUNDING WHERE WE HAD 6-12 DEGREES OF WARMING BETWEEN H5
AND H7. AS THE RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD WE WILL JUMP FAIRLY QUICKLY
FROM THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THIS MORNING...DRY
AND MILD WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY UNSETTLED SEASONAL PATTERN TRYING TO
SET UP FOR US NEXT WEEK. CONSOLIDATING AND THEN REINFORCED ENERGY
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BUT THEN WHAT? DECENT CHANCE AT A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTING MOST OF WESTERN REGION BUT IT`S NOT CLEAR IF IT WILL COME
ACROSS IN ONE PIECE. LATEST ECMWF TRYING TO SPLIT A LITTLE MORE
ENERGY INTO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY LOSES HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT WITH THE INITIAL SHOT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY LEAVING THE SPLIT BEHIND.
PREVIOUS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND A FAIR
REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS. WE`LL SEE IF TODAY`S 12Z KEEPS THIS
CUT-OFF OR NEAR CUT-OFF RESOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK. INTERESTING THAT
EXPERIMENTAL GFS13 TRENDS ARE ALSO TRENDING BACK TOWARD DEEPER AND
SLOWER ENERGY COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. TIMING GOES OUT THE
WINDOW IF THAT ENERGY GETS CUT OFF. SLOWING THE FORECAST A BIT MORE
BUT STILL DOMINATED BY THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARMER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. OTHER THAN
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 260411
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA
AS OF 04Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. AREA SFC TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS COCHISE COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERT AREAS.
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE 7-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST TONIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY EAST
WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY REGIME
MAY PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING VERSUS LAST NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA. BASED ON VARIOUS
25/12Z NWP GUIDANCE...APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW LOCALES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. THUS...GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS WED...THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WED-
THUR...AND LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE WED NIGHT-THUR
IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRI AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE AZ SUN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING ERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
IN MODERATE-TO-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...THE 25/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITED DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL BY TUE. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF/S...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FASTER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS MORE TEMPERED
WITH AMOUNTS VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
GFS 13 KM SOLUTION...AND THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...HAVE NOTED THE INCREASING
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IMPACTING SE AZ.

AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON WWD MON NIGHT...THEN CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS AREA-WIDE TUE.
ALTHOUGH THESE POPS MAY SEEM TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ASSUMING STRONG RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONTINUITY. PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE DETAIL REGARDING
QPF/S...SNOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATIONS.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO BE
NEARLY 10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRI FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS SAT-MON. MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN OCCUR TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 260411
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA
AS OF 04Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. AREA SFC TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS COCHISE COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERT AREAS.
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE 7-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST TONIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY EAST
WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY REGIME
MAY PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING VERSUS LAST NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA. BASED ON VARIOUS
25/12Z NWP GUIDANCE...APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW LOCALES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. THUS...GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS WED...THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WED-
THUR...AND LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE WED NIGHT-THUR
IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRI AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE AZ SUN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING ERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
IN MODERATE-TO-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...THE 25/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITED DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL BY TUE. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF/S...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FASTER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS MORE TEMPERED
WITH AMOUNTS VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
GFS 13 KM SOLUTION...AND THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...HAVE NOTED THE INCREASING
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IMPACTING SE AZ.

AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON WWD MON NIGHT...THEN CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS AREA-WIDE TUE.
ALTHOUGH THESE POPS MAY SEEM TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ASSUMING STRONG RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONTINUITY. PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE DETAIL REGARDING
QPF/S...SNOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATIONS.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO BE
NEARLY 10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRI FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS SAT-MON. MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN OCCUR TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 260411
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA
AS OF 04Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. AREA SFC TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS COCHISE COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERT AREAS.
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE 7-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST TONIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY EAST
WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY REGIME
MAY PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING VERSUS LAST NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA. BASED ON VARIOUS
25/12Z NWP GUIDANCE...APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW LOCALES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. THUS...GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS WED...THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WED-
THUR...AND LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE WED NIGHT-THUR
IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRI AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE AZ SUN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING ERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
IN MODERATE-TO-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...THE 25/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITED DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL BY TUE. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF/S...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FASTER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS MORE TEMPERED
WITH AMOUNTS VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
GFS 13 KM SOLUTION...AND THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...HAVE NOTED THE INCREASING
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IMPACTING SE AZ.

AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON WWD MON NIGHT...THEN CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS AREA-WIDE TUE.
ALTHOUGH THESE POPS MAY SEEM TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ASSUMING STRONG RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONTINUITY. PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE DETAIL REGARDING
QPF/S...SNOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATIONS.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO BE
NEARLY 10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRI FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS SAT-MON. MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN OCCUR TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 260411
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA
AS OF 04Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME THIN CIRRUS OVER THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE
BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. AREA SFC TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS COCHISE COUNTIES AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERT AREAS.
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW LOWS TO DIP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE 7-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST PAST TONIGHT...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES OR PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL DURING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY EAST
WINDS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY REGIME
MAY PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING VERSUS LAST NIGHT. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA. BASED ON VARIOUS
25/12Z NWP GUIDANCE...APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW LOCALES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPS. THUS...GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR...A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN CONUS WED...THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE AREA THUR. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR WED-
THUR...AND LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATE WED NIGHT-THUR
IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FRI AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE AZ SUN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING ERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
IN MODERATE-TO-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THEREAFTER...THE 25/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF EXHIBITED DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL BY TUE. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF/S...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS FASTER
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS MORE TEMPERED
WITH AMOUNTS VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
GFS 13 KM SOLUTION...AND THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR MON NIGHT-TUE...HAVE NOTED THE INCREASING
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IMPACTING SE AZ.

AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON WWD MON NIGHT...THEN CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS AREA-WIDE TUE.
ALTHOUGH THESE POPS MAY SEEM TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ASSUMING STRONG RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL CONTINUITY. PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE DETAIL REGARDING
QPF/S...SNOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATIONS.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS TO BE
NEARLY 10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRI FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS SAT-MON. MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN OCCUR TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS







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