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000
FXUS65 KTWC 251730
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CUMULOFORM CLOUDS SPREADING
SEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR
SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND
26/03Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 251730
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CUMULOFORM CLOUDS SPREADING
SEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR
SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND
26/03Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 251007
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
SKC MOST AREAS. SCTD -SHRA/TS PSBL ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS NE OF KSAD
BTWN 26/19Z AND 27/03Z. SFC WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 251007
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
SKC MOST AREAS. SCTD -SHRA/TS PSBL ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS NE OF KSAD
BTWN 26/19Z AND 27/03Z. SFC WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 250416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THE WEAK LOW TRACKS
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES CLEAR. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
NEAR TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 250416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THE WEAK LOW TRACKS
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES CLEAR. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
NEAR TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 241631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CLOUD MASS
TWIST WAS EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SW ARIZONA/
SE CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 24/15Z RUC
HRRR DEPICT LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND
ERN SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES AROUND 21Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN DEPICTED TO BE NEAR THE CATALINA/
RINCON MOUNTAINS EWD TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/12Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD VERSUS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. WILL MODIFY THE 21Z-00Z GRIDDED DATA POPS TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD
ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE-FRI. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-TUE.
EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW -TSRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST PERIOD FOR THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM 21Z THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. TWO
OTHER OCCURRENCES HAD TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE LAST RECORDED
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 241631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CLOUD MASS
TWIST WAS EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SW ARIZONA/
SE CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 24/15Z RUC
HRRR DEPICT LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND
ERN SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES AROUND 21Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN DEPICTED TO BE NEAR THE CATALINA/
RINCON MOUNTAINS EWD TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/12Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD VERSUS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. WILL MODIFY THE 21Z-00Z GRIDDED DATA POPS TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD
ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE-FRI. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-TUE.
EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW -TSRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST PERIOD FOR THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM 21Z THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. TWO
OTHER OCCURRENCES HAD TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE LAST RECORDED
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 240959
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING WHILE
IT WAS GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN UTAH WITH A SMALLER LOW NEAR LA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE BE NEAR YUMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SKY ISLANDS OF
SE AZ WITH HIGHER POPS UP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS ON MEMORIAL DAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITES. ALTHOUGH TODAY WILL ANOTHER COOL
LATE MAY DAY FOR THE AREA IT WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
WARMUP CONTINUE THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE FIRST 100 OF THE SEASON MAY OCCUR IN TUCSON NEXT SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER S TO NEAR KTUS.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT OTHER TIMES.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS TO NEAR THE TUCSON
METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 240959
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING WHILE
IT WAS GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN UTAH WITH A SMALLER LOW NEAR LA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE BE NEAR YUMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SKY ISLANDS OF
SE AZ WITH HIGHER POPS UP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS ON MEMORIAL DAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITES. ALTHOUGH TODAY WILL ANOTHER COOL
LATE MAY DAY FOR THE AREA IT WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
WARMUP CONTINUE THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
THE FIRST 100 OF THE SEASON MAY OCCUR IN TUCSON NEXT SUNDAY. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER S TO NEAR KTUS.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT OTHER TIMES.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS TO NEAR THE TUCSON
METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN SPEED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR KTUS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT
OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS TO NEAR
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO AS WELL AS
OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
VIA THE 23/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR WITH PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY
AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
AGAIN MON.

ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE REGIME WILL BE QUITE DRY...THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINGLE DIGIT POPS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY FRI. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-
TUE. EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEXT SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN SPEED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR KTUS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT
OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS TO NEAR
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO AS WELL AS
OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
VIA THE 23/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR WITH PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY
AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
AGAIN MON.

ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE REGIME WILL BE QUITE DRY...THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINGLE DIGIT POPS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY FRI. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-
TUE. EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEXT SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 232235
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN
CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO AS WELL AS OVER
NRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
VIA THE 23/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR WITH PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY
AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
AGAIN MON.

ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE REGIME WILL BE QUITE DRY...THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINGLE DIGIT POPS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY FRI. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-
TUE. EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEXT SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR KTUS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT
OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS TO NEAR
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 232235
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN
CONUS WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO AS WELL AS OVER
NRN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
VIA THE 23/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR WITH PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY
AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
AGAIN MON.

ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE REGIME WILL BE QUITE DRY...THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS...
POPS WERE INCREASED INTO THE CHANCE-CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINGLE DIGIT POPS
WERE MAINTAINED ELSEWHERE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES BY FRI. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE IS
THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER SE ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-
TUE. EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEXT SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NE OF KSAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR KTUS. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AT
OTHER TIMES. SURFACE WIND EARLY THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS TO NEAR
THE TUCSON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 231610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT GENERALLY WLY WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS
THIS TIME FRI. 23/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS
0.39 INCH. 23/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH A 562 DM LOW CENTERED OVER SRN UTAH AND A 565 DM LOW
CENTERED OVER SW OREGON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
OVER SE ARIZONA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THE UTAH UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO SE WYOMING SUN. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW OREGON
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD INTO SRN ARIZONA. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 23/12Z
NAM/GFS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE...THE 23/00Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO ONLY
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN MON. AT ANY
RATE...WILL AWAIT RECEIPT OF THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS WHICH DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN-MON.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL THRU
MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 10-15
DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL START SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED-FRI WITH
ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
KTUS VICINITY WESTWARD EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL. EAST OF KTUS...FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WLY/NWLY
AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 231610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT GENERALLY WLY WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 10-20 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS
THIS TIME FRI. 23/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS
0.39 INCH. 23/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS...WITH A 562 DM LOW CENTERED OVER SRN UTAH AND A 565 DM LOW
CENTERED OVER SW OREGON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
OVER SE ARIZONA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THE UTAH UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO SE WYOMING SUN. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW OREGON
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD INTO SRN ARIZONA. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 23/12Z
NAM/GFS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE COUNTY AND SRN GRAHAM COUNTY SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WERE DEPICTED VIA THE NAM TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE...THE 23/00Z ECMWF/CMC LIMITED LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO ONLY
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN MON. AT ANY
RATE...WILL AWAIT RECEIPT OF THE 23/12Z ECMWF/CMC BEFORE ADJUSTING
THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS WHICH DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUN-MON.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL PREVAIL THRU
MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 10-15
DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A WARMING TREND WILL START SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED-FRI WITH
ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/18Z.
KTUS VICINITY WESTWARD EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL. EAST OF KTUS...FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE WLY/NWLY
AT 10-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 231002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER NW AZ LIFTS NE
INTO UTAH TODAY. TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW DROPS
INTO THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA MAY SEE
SLIGHTY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATUERS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST
TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON TODAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 231002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER NW AZ LIFTS NE
INTO UTAH TODAY. TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW DROPS
INTO THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA MAY SEE
SLIGHTY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATUERS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST
TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON TODAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 231002
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER NW AZ LIFTS NE
INTO UTAH TODAY. TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW DROPS
INTO THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE AREA MAY SEE
SLIGHTY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATUERS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST
TWO WEEKS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z. FEW-SCT CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON TODAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 230341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BUT REMAINED SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS OF 8 PM MST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MORE TYPICAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
ELSEWHERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR ARIZONA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
WHERE TO DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
MOISTURE RESIDING MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 230341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BUT REMAINED SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS OF 8 PM MST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MORE TYPICAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
ELSEWHERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR ARIZONA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
WHERE TO DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
MOISTURE RESIDING MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 230341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BUT REMAINED SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS OF 8 PM MST. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MORE TYPICAL
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY
ELSEWHERE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR ARIZONA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
WHERE TO DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
MOISTURE RESIDING MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 222109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
209 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IR AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF
NEVADA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS NORTHERN ARIZONA. CLOSER TO HOME...
MOSTLY JUST FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED AND CONTINUES
THROUGH 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR ARIZONA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH
WHERE TO DEPICT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE
MOISTURE RESIDING MAINLY JUST EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO
8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EACH
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SWLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 23/02Z. MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS
LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS
OF COCHISE COUNTY...AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. AS A RESULT...A
RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. MORE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 151.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS
      EVENING FOR SOUTHERN FIRE ZONE 152 OR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CARLAW

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