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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230339
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT. INHERITED GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON
TRACK BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCALES THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95
DEGS F RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL













000
FXUS65 KTWC 230339
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TONIGHT. INHERITED GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON
TRACK BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN
CONUS INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME
LOCALES THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95
DEGS F RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL













000
FXUS65 KTWC 222121
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS
INTO FRI. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...
AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CONTINUES WITH 94 DEGS F FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F
RECORDED AT TIA IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS SAT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO FRI EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. 22/12Z GFS DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OCCUR SAT. THE GFS EVEN PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE 22/12Z ECMWF WAS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST WITH THIS
DEPICTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. THE ECMWF ALSO
DID NOT PRODUCE ANY QPF/S. AT ANY RATE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE SAT.

22/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST COAST TROUGH
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUN. THESE SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGHS VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH SUN WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/
SWLY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MORE-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TO BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA MON VERSUS
THE FLATTER GFS UPPER PATTERN. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD
YIELD DRY CONDITIONS MON WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZINESS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY. WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TUE-WED WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/23Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU 23/03Z AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY...AND ENHANCED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY ON MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 221701
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.

THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 221701
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1000 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. 22/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.69 INCH...A DECREASE OF
NEARLY 0.10 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SOUNDING YIELDED A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 1 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 682 J/KG. LIGHT TO MODERATE NWLY/NLY FLOW
PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NERN NEW MEXICO SWWD ACROSS THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO...AND CONTINUED SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/130W. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WELL SE OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 22/12Z NAM/GFS
DEPICTS JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS MOSTLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. 22/14Z RUC HRRR
DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH ANY PRECIP
ECHOES OF CONSEQUENCE TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES
THUR-SAT. THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TUCSON DEPICTS 94
DEGS F FOR FRI/SAT. THE LATEST DATE FOR 95 DEGS F RECORDED AT THE
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS OCTOBER 26, 1934 AND 2001.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 22/12Z
GFS DEPICTED A SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO OCCUR SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT
THE GFS PRODUCED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/S JUST WEST AND NORTH OF
THIS FORECAST AREA. WILL ADDRESS THE NOTION OF INTRODUCING SOME
SPRINKLES WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SAT.

THEREAFTER...22/12Z GFS AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS MON...AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS
SUN FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
2-5 DEGS F OF COOLING TO OCCUR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
KTUS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME COOLING WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220911
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW KICKING IN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
FALLING INTO THE .6 RANGE THIS MORNING. TROUGH THAT GUIDED THE
SHEARED REMAINS OF THAT LOW AWAY ALREADY EAST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
AMPLIFYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS VALUES WILL HELP GENERATE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. FOCUS OF THE STRONG
850-700MB THICKNESS INCREASES THROUGH EASTERN PIMA...SANTA
CRUZ...COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST ECMWF VALUES
AROUND 165.5DAM FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHT TRENDS WILL START TO BUCKLE
SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS REFLECTION LAGGING WITH VALUES
ACTUALLY INCREASING A LITTLE. STILL ON WATCH FOR POSSIBLE 95 AT TIA
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FLIRTING WITH THE LATEST 95 ON RECORD
(CURRENTLY ON THE 26TH FOR TUCSON FROM BOTH 1934 AND 2001). VERY
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE FORECAST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS TRENDS...BUT
BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS NOT QUITE. EITHER WAY THE STORY OF NEAR
RECORD HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT DRY (THIS FAR SOUTH) TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/09Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. SOME COOLING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH BRUSHES
BY THROUGH THE REGION BUT REMAINING DRY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN
INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
TROUGH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/FRENCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AROUND THE REGION WITH THE 22/00Z TWC RAOB
INDICATING A PWAT DECREASE OF 0.12 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES F LOWER
THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WE HEAD
INTO A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STILL...LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BUILD UP SOME
SPOTTY CU FOCUSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW/LADER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL









000
FXUS65 KTWC 220344
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
844 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MID AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WE
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AROUND THE REGION WITH THE 22/00Z TWC RAOB
INDICATING A PWAT DECREASE OF 0.12 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 4 DEGREES F LOWER
THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OUR CWA. GRID ELEMENTS ALL LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WE HEAD
INTO A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. STILL...LOOKS TO
BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BUILD UP SOME
SPOTTY CU FOCUSED NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW/LADER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL









000
FXUS65 KTWC 212211
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SSEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INHERITED POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON
AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES THUR-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS FRI AS THE WARMEST DAY...SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS MON...
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS SUN
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
22/04Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 212211
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 PM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SSEWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
INHERITED POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED...THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF TUCSON
AND PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES THUR-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS FRI AS THE WARMEST DAY...SATURDAY MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE WEST
COAST TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS SUN. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS MON...
AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN WLY/SWLY WINDS SUN
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS MON.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. HIGH TEMPS FRI-SAT
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...SOME
LOCALES MAY EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS. COOLER TEMPS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL THEN OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY
AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS F OR SO OF COOLING MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/23Z.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THRU
22/04Z. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS THRU 22/04Z...WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREA-WIDE. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER COCHISE...GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 211610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY
CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SWRN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AS PER
THE RUC HRRR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS WED-FRI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT IN RESPONSE TO A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST COAST. INCREASING HEIGHTS/
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND...WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THUR-SAT. ASSUMING PROGGED 850-700 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 165.5 DM TO BE REALITY...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 9-12 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. SATURDAY MAY VERY WELL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND IS ON TAP SUN-MON GIVEN
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/18Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 6-10K FT AGL...THEN
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K
FT AGL WEST OF KTUS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF TUCSON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 210912
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. THEN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLING NOW NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORMS VERY FAR AWAY
FROM MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN STORY THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PREFERRED ECMWF STILL SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED...HOWEVER GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CATCHING UP ENOUGH
FOR A GOOD FORECAST BLEND. THICKNESS REGRESSION SUPPORTS NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOS CATCHING UP TO THIS
IDEA NOW. 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 165 TO 165.5DAM SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 9-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH IS ABOUT A 93
TO 94 AT TIA FRIDAY. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 IT WOULD BE ONE OF
THE LATEST 95S ON RECORD FOR TUCSON (THE LATEST ON RECORD IS OCT 26
IN BOTH 1934 AND 2001). NEAR RECORD VALUES ACROSS SE AZ
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD DUE TO ORIENTATION AND
TIMING ISSUES OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PHASING
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS STILL RESPONSIVE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THICKNESSES LAG AT HIGHER LEVELS.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH TROUGH TO START THE NEW WEEK...BUT DRY THIS
FAR SOUTH. IT SHOULD EASILY KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE YOUNG SEASON SO FAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AFT 21/20Z SCT CLOUDS
8-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY NEAR NEW MEXICO.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AREA WIDE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 210402
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.  NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ISOLATED SAND QUATTY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.  THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO
HOWEVER GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW I WOULDN/T EXPECT
ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR 90% OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  THEREFORE I
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF RW/TRW TO RIGHT ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.  OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO
OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS ABSORBED IN
THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  THE COMBINATION OF THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE
WILL MEAN THAT A BIT OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN THIS WILL DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WEAK BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND PUSHING RECORDS AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

BEYOND THAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE MODELS AGREE ON THE IDEA OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT ON THE STRUCTURE AND DEPTH.  EITHER WAY IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURE FIELDS BUT THOSE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS SOON.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL THRU 21/20Z WITH ISOLD -SHRA NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER.  AFT 21/20Z SCT CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO.  EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 210402
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.  NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ISOLATED SAND QUATTY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.  THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO
HOWEVER GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW I WOULDN/T EXPECT
ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR 90% OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  THEREFORE I
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF RW/TRW TO RIGHT ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.  OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO
OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS ABSORBED IN
THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  THE COMBINATION OF THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE
WILL MEAN THAT A BIT OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN THIS WILL DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WEAK BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND PUSHING RECORDS AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

BEYOND THAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE MODELS AGREE ON THE IDEA OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT ON THE STRUCTURE AND DEPTH.  EITHER WAY IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURE FIELDS BUT THOSE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS SOON.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL THRU 21/20Z WITH ISOLD -SHRA NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER.  AFT 21/20Z SCT CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO.  EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 210402
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.  NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ISOLATED SAND QUATTY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.  THERE IS STILL A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO
HOWEVER GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW I WOULDN/T EXPECT
ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR 90% OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  THEREFORE I
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF RW/TRW TO RIGHT ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.  OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO
OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND IS ABSORBED IN
THE BROADER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  THE COMBINATION OF THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING ON THE BACKSIDE
WILL MEAN THAT A BIT OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AGAIN THIS WILL DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WEAK BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
CLEAR...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND PUSHING RECORDS AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

BEYOND THAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE MODELS AGREE ON THE IDEA OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT ON THE STRUCTURE AND DEPTH.  EITHER WAY IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURE FIELDS BUT THOSE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS SOON.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL THRU 21/20Z WITH ISOLD -SHRA NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER.  AFT 21/20Z SCT CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO.  EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 202133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POSITION
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW WITH TIME
AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND
FRIDAY BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES WHICH SUPPORT NEAR
RECORD READINGS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 21/03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. A
FEW ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INCLUDING KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 202133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POSITION
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW WITH TIME
AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND
FRIDAY BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES WHICH SUPPORT NEAR
RECORD READINGS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 21/03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. A
FEW ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INCLUDING KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 202133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POSITION
AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW WITH TIME
AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...MODELS BUILD A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND
FRIDAY BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESS VALUES WHICH SUPPORT NEAR
RECORD READINGS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF
THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY FROM
KTUS EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 21/03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7-12KFT AGL WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. A
FEW ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INCLUDING KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 201623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL
FURTHER EMPHASIZE EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST
OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY
STEERING LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
STEER A FEW STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF
TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 201623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL
FURTHER EMPHASIZE EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST
OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY
STEERING LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
STEER A FEW STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF
TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS







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