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000
FXUS65 KTWC 122049
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
APPROACHING SE AZ ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED
TO THE AZ/NM BORDER. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE JUST THICK ENOUGH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE LAST NIGHTS LOW TEMPS.  CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A
FACTOR ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY PREDICTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OR BECOMES NWLY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS...NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH APPROACHING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SE AZ
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF IS LEAST IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVERALL WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER NM AND TX NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR SE AZ THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 12
KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DROZD/LADER

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 121622
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
922 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND.  HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SKIRT THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON BALMY
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.  SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD
HIGHS FOR TODAY.

NO CHANGES FORESEEN TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z.
GENERALLY SKC OR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SKY.
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LIES PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS PUTS US IN PERFECT POSITION FOR A PEAK IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON
AVERAGE...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE RECORDS MANY LOCATIONS.  THIS RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY FOR A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING THAT AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND TRIMMING THE AFTERNOON HIGHS FURTHER...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT NEAR RECORDS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER FEATURE SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...CRESTING OVER ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING RECORD LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THAT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST AROUND THURSDAY GIVE OR
TAKE...RESULTING IN COOLING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY A SMALL THREAT OF A
SHOWER IF WE ARE LUCKY.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

                                  FEB 12
LOCATION                 FCST   RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     80    84/1957
AJO                        86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          86    88/1957
SAFFORD AG STATION         77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 120900
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES
PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS PUTS US IN PERFECT POSITION FOR A PEAK IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ON
AVERAGE...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE RECORDS MANY LOCATIONS.  THIS RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY FOR A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING THAT AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND TRIMMING THE AFTERNOON HIGHS FURTHER...BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL JUST NOT NEAR RECORDS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER FEATURE SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...CRESTING OVER ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING RECORD LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THAT MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST AROUND THURSDAY GIVE OR
TAKE...RESULTING IN COOLING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY A SMALL THREAT OF A
SHOWER IF WE ARE LUCKY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 120433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE
ARIZONA TODAY WITH A REPEAT ON FRIDAY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/04Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. INCREASING SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 112158
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE REMAINS
MAINLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MOVES EWD OUT OF OUR AREA
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD...MAINLY IMPACTING THE PLAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS ON THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST
MONDAY...BRINGING A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH IT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EWD
THROUGH OUR AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL RUNS REGARDING PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK...THE 11/12Z GFS SUGGESTS
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA NEXT THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 11/12Z ECMWF HINTS
AT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT STILL LEAVES US PRECIP-FREE. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO BE TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
FUTURE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE UPDATED TO NOTE ANY CHANGES.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON FRIDAY BUT THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
ARE GENERALLY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS
SEEING A BIT MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. INCREASING SW WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 111552
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE 11/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD VALUES AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDINGNWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY THISMORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




000
FXUS65 KTWC 111552
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE 11/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD VALUES AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDINGNWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY THISMORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 111552
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. THE 11/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD VALUES AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN REACH 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDINGNWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY THISMORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI
NIGHT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN A
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 111105
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN
A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




000
FXUS65 KTWC 111105
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN
A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 111105
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA REGION. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA FRI. PERHAPS A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE VERY
DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS...AND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEXT WED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...OR NOT...FOR SE ARIZONA NEXT THUR.
AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...THE 00Z GFS WAS MORE ROBUST VERSUS
THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF DEPICTING AT LEAST LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA NEXT THUR.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS FOR SE
ARIZONA...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS DEPICTED WELL WEST ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA. THE ECMWF THEN DEPICTED MEASURABLE PRECIP TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN ARIZONA THUR NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PERHAPS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NEWLY RECEIVED 11/06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE 11/00Z GFS...WITH THE 11/06Z NOW
DEPICTING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS TO OCCUR
THUR MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WERE DEPICTED ELSEWHERE THUR MORNING...THEN
A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE NEXT THUR AFTERNOON INTO FRI.

THE UPSHOT...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE VERY LOW MODEL CONTINUITY
REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...AT LEAST OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL TRENDS
DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND
NEXT THUR OR SO. THIS NOTION AND SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...
AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.

AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AND FRI. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FRI...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SAT ARE SEVERAL DEGS
WARMER VERSUS FRI FOR MANY LOCALES. EXPECT VERY MINOR COOLING SUN
FOLLOWED BY A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED. THUS...HIGH
TEMPS MON-WED WILL AVERAGE MAINLY 12-18 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING
UPON LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SEASONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MIN RHS IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOCALIZED
BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A TABLE OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.

                               FEB 11              FEB 12
                          FCST RECORD/YEAR    FCST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        85    84/1951       86    86/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT     79    81/1990       80    84/1957
AJO                        85    89/1951       86    85/1996
FORT THOMAS                77    81/1971       78    79/1971
KITT PEAK                  69    66/1979       70    66/1979
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          85    86/1951       86    88/1957
PICACHO PEAK               82    80/2007       84    80/2012
SAFFORD AG STATION         76    82/1962       77    81/1957
SIERRA VISTA FD            75    83/2015       76    83/1957
TOMBSTONE                  77    83/1961       78    86/1957
WILLCOX                    77    81/1957       78    84/1957

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 110321
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
820 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO CONTINUE AROUND 12 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE RIDGE WILL DIRTY UP WITH
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME...OTHERWISE QUITE DRY.

CHAOTIC UPSTREAM THROUGH THE PACIFIC AS WE SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR A BIT AFTER THE 18TH.
UNTIL THEN...NO BUENO.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH PATCHY CIRRUS AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/HUMPHREYS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 102124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FURTHER THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION
WED/THURS THE MODEL OUTPUTS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 10/12Z GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF CA WHICH COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE 10/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW...LEAVING OUR AREA DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SO...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SCT ABOVE 25K FT AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 102124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FURTHER THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION
WED/THURS THE MODEL OUTPUTS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 10/12Z GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF CA WHICH COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE 10/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW...LEAVING OUR AREA DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SO...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SCT ABOVE 25K FT AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 101539
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE 10/12Z KTWC SOUNDING LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUESDAY SHOWING A VERY WARM AND DRY
ENVIRONMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST A
FEW HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE
FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THRU FRI ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
FOR SE ARIZONA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS WELL AS SOME VERY
MINOR COOLING.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY
DRY REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 10/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA NEXT WED AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND EXTENDS SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BY NEXT FRI (FEB 19). THE GFS DEPICTED
FAIRLY LARGE LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...A SYSTEM SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRECIP MAY APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP RETURNING TO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED TUE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING THUR-FRI WITH RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES. THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT...THEN JUST A FEW DEGS OF COOLING
WILL OCCUR SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MON-TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 101030
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA. THE 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND ENSEMBLES
REMAINED VERY SIMILAR TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING THE
PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THRU FRI
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR SE
ARIZONA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS WELL AS SOME VERY MINOR
COOLING.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY
DRY REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 10/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA NEXT WED AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND EXTENDS SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BY NEXT FRI (FEB 19). THE GFS DEPICTED
FAIRLY LARGE LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...A SYSTEM SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRECIP MAY APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP RETURNING TO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED TUE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING THUR-FRI WITH RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES. THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT...THEN JUST A FEW DEGS OF COOLING
WILL OCCUR SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA





000
FXUS65 KTWC 100415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE ALL
THE WAY MARS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR
UNDER 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/06Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY LOW...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH DEPICTED A RATHER WEAK DETACHED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH MODELS TEND TO
AGREE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE PREVAILING PATTERN. MODELS ARE VERY
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COULD BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE MOST RECENT GFS OUTPUT SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ITS STILL
FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AS THE
09/12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY DOES NOT AGREE WITH THAT SCENARIO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/HICKFORD/HUMPHREYS

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