000
FXUS65 KTWC 232348 CCA
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
448 PM MST THU MAY 23 2013
CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH NEAR AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CAUSE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THIS TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES
IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK FOR THIS LOW. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CENTER IN NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AT 18Z...WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS THE LOW INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS VARIATION
DECREASES THE CONFIDENT OF THE EXTENDED FORECASTS AT DAYS 6 AND 7.
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. DUE TO THESE VARIATIONS...
INCREASED THE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND SLY/SWLY AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KTS THRU 24/03Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
AGAIN AFT 24/05Z. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AVERAGE
VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH TUCSON JUST MISSING THE FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR BY AN
EYELASH...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ATTEMPT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 100 HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE ONLY TWICE SINCE
1990...HISTORICALLY 1/3RD OF THE OCCURRENCES HAVE BEEN IN JUNE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 232129
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
229 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH NEAR AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CAUSE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THIS TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES
IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK FOR THIS LOW. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CENTER IN NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AT 18Z...WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS THE LOW INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS VARIATION
DECREASES THE CONFIDENT OF THE EXTENDED FORECASTS AT DAYS 6 AND 7.
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. DUE TO THESE
VARIATIONS...INCREASED THE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH
SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND SLY/SWLY AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KTS THRU 24/03Z...THEN DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
AGAIN AFT 24/05Z. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS
AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AVERAGE
VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH TUCSON JUST MISSING THE FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR BY AN
EYELASH...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ATTEMPT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 100 HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE ONLY TWICE SINCE
1990...HISTORICALLY 1/3RD OF THE OCCURRENCES HAVE BEEN IN JUNE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231605
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS POSITION PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE
ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS. DUE
TO THE SLOW MOTION OF LONG WAVE TROUGHS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THIS TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES
IT FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXACT TRACK...AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING VARY BETWEEN THE
MODELS. CERTAINLY THE DROP IN HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE.
MOISTURE APPEARS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND THE POPS FOR THESE DAYS ARE
NOT EVEN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THAT MAY AND JUNE ARE
THE DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...THE CURRENT FORECAST OF NOT
EMPHASIZING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GOOD.
AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FLOW PATTERN GOES MORE ZONAL WITH A LONG WAVE
TROUGH STILL REMAINING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AGAIN THIS PATTERN
WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE FOR TUCSON BEING A BIT ELUSIVE THIS YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING SURFACE WIND WITH SLY/SWLY AT 14-19 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THRU 24/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS AGAIN AFT 24/05Z. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OR SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH
THIN CLOUDS AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AVERAGE
VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH TUCSON JUST MISSING THE FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR BY AN
EYELASH...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ATTEMPT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 100 HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE ONLY TWICE SINCE
1990...HISTORICALLY 1/3RD OF THE OCCURRENCES HAVE BEEN IN JUNE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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GWS
000
FXUS65 KTWC 230942
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE 00Z GFS/EC/CANADIAN ARE NOW SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM COMING OUT
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MEMORIAL DAY AND DIVING SE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANY CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AOA 20K FT. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS
THRU 23/15Z...THEN INCREASING SURFACE WIND WITH SLY/SWLY AT 14-19
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THRU 24/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 24/05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN THE WEST COAST
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
VALUES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST.
&&
.CLIMATE...WITH TUCSON JUST MISSING THE FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR BY AN
EYELASH...LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ATTEMPT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 100 HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE ONLY TWICE SINCE
1990...HISTORICALLY 1/3RD OF THE OCCURRENCES HAVE BEEN IN JUNE.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230332
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WELL...WE ALMOST MADE 100 BUT DIDN`T QUITE GET THERE
WE ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCHED 99 DEGREES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING THURSDAY THEN A GOOD BIT COOLER FRIDAY
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL WE NEED TO WAIT UNTIL JUNE...
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
TIGHTENS UNDER THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. BREEZY (15 TO 25 MPH)
LEVELS AND GUSTY...WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS OUTLINED BELOW BUT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN
REGION WITH A STUBBORN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME HIGHS. ECMWF ADVERTISES MODEST
REINFORCING ENERGY SHARPENING UP THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STILL WELL NORTH OF US BUT IT COULD PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO BY MONDAY. CERNIGLIA/MEYER
&&
.AVIATION...SKC-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 23/17Z THEN BECOMING SW-W 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
20-30 KT THROUGH 24/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL
DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
RATHER POOR...PRIMARILY IN THE 20S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE DISTRICT)
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
MST. ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME...BUT A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CERNIGLIA/LADER
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 222111
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...JUST PATCHES OF CIRRUS IN A MODEST BUT INCREASING FLOW
OVER SE AZ. ONE MORE DAY TO HEAT UP BEFORE THE STRONG REGIONAL
TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INTO THE
WEEKEND. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SUPPORTED A 99 TODAY WITH 3 TO 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BETWEEN H6 AND SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOW UP 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO WE GOT A HEAD START THAT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM WE WERE 98 AND 19Z HRRR
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 100 FOR MID TOWN AND 99.4 FOR TIA BETWEEN
3PM AND 4PM. VERIFICATION HAS BEEN SPOT ON THROUGH THE DAY...SO
WE`LL SEE...IT WILL BE CLOSE.
BETTER WINDS TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UNDER THE DIGGING
TROUGH. BREEZY LEVELS AND GUSTY...LOCALLY WINDY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS
BUT SHOULD BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS OUTLINED BELOW BUT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
MEAN TROUGH POSITION MAINTAINED ACROSS WESTERN REGION WITH A
STUBBORN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF
OF DAYTIME HIGHS. ECMWF ADVERTISES MODEST REINFORCING ENERGY
SHARPENING UP THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
STILL WELL NORTH OF US BUT IT COULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN TO NEAR
CLIMO BY TUESDAY. IF WE DON`T GET THE 100 AT TIA TODAY WE MAY BE
WAITING UNTIL EARLY JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WIND SWLY AT 12-17 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THRU 23/03Z. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 23/03Z. INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL
DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST. ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE THEM.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR
NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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MEYER/LADER
000
FXUS65 KTWC 221626
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...JUST PATCHES OF CIRRUS IN A MODEST BUT INCREASING FLOW
OVER SE AZ. ONE MORE DAY TO HEAT UP BEFORE THE STRONG REGIONAL
TROUGH BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING INTO THE
WEEKEND. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SUPPORTS A 99 TODAY WITH 3 TO 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BETWEEN H6 AND SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOW UP 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO WE`RE GETTING A HEAD START. 14Z HRRR
ADVERTISES A 100 FOR MID TOWN AND 99 FOR TIA THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
WINDS TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UNDER THE DIGGING TROUGH. NO
UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST THERE STILL WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGH OF 2013 BEING RECORDED IN TUCSON. CHECK THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON THIS. OTHERWISE BREEZY TO LOCALIZED WINDY
TODAY.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH BROAD UPPER LOW
TO OUR NW. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING
ACROSS THE STATE. DAILY HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE STATE RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS COOLER THAN EC. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER EC.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT BECMG FEW-SCT AFT 22/17Z.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 22/15Z THEN SLY/SWLY AT 12-17 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THRU 23/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 23/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MAINLY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL
DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE
DISTRICT) WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL
8 PM MST. ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE THEM.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR
NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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MEYER/LADER
000
FXUS65 KTWC 220926
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. EVEN WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST
THERE STILL WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGH OF 2013 BEING RECORDED IN TUCSON. CHECK THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON THIS. OTHERWISE BREEZY TO LOCALIZED WINDY
TODAY.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH BROAD UPPER LOW
TO OUR NW. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING
ACROSS THE STATE. DAILY HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY...DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE STATE RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS COOLER THAN EC. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER EC.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT BECMG FEW-SCT AFT 22/17Z.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 22/15Z THEN SLY/SWLY AT 12-17 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THRU 23/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 23/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A TROUGH WILL FORM
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SOME
COOLING AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS
MAY BE EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE DISTRICT) WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MST.
&&
.CLIMATE...AFTER MAKING THE FIRST RUN AT THE FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
OF 2013 FOR TUCSON A WEEK AGO...WE HAVE BEEN TARGETING TODAY SINCE
LATE LAST WEEK AS THE NEXT BEST SHOT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...TODAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 99...WITH ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT
TIA WILL HIT 100. IF 100 OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 215 PM
TO 345 PM TIME FRAME. ON A HISTORICAL NOTE...THE FIRST 100 DEGREE OF
HIGH OF THE YEAR HAS OCCURRED ON MAY 22ND ONLY ONCE...IN 1926.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR
NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 220347
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES
OUT OF THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE WARMING COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE WE ARE
ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO TEASE TIA AGAIN WITH A 99 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. 100 POSSIBLE BUT UPPER 90S A BETTER BET AT THIS TIME BASED ON
EXPECTED 850-700MB THICKNESS REGRESSION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH FOR OUR AREA AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL NORTH AND ANY MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP EAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR WESTERN US BUT WILL BEGIN
TO FILL WITH TIME AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE US REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE BY A STUBBORN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. SO
WHILE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO WITH MODEST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AREAWIDE THRU THE NIGHT BECMG
FEW-SCT AFT 22/14Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
DIURNAL IN DIRECTION THRU 22/16Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20KT
WITH GUSTS 20-35KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF US LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT) WHERE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146
INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 212114
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES
OUT OF THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRY IN LOW LEVELS EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOWS AN INCREASE WITH PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUD AT TIMES. SURFACE
DEWPTS IN THE TEENS WITH SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
AROUND 1/3 OF AN INCH.
STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING LIKE WE ARE ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE
TO TEASE TIA AGAIN WITH A 99 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING
BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. 100 POSSIBLE BUT UPPER
90S A BETTER BET AT THIS TIME BASED ON EXPECTED 850-700MB THICKNESS
REGRESSION. GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN STORY WITH THE TROUGH AS THE MAIN
DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH AND MOISTURE DRAWN UP EAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
FILLING MEAN TROUGH POSITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
STUBBORN RIDGING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO WITH
MODEST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
AREAWIDE. SURFACE WIND WLY/NWLY AT 9-14 KTS AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 22/03Z WITH STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF US LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT) WHERE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146
INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.
&&
$$
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MEYER/LADER
000
FXUS65 KTWC 211556
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A FEW GUSTY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...12Z KTWC SOUNDING SUPPORTS MIDDLE 90S TODAY WITH
RATHER DRY 1/4 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
THIN PATCHY CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 26 HOURS...SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PHASES EAST OF THE
AREA. STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SOME HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKING LIKE WE ARE ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE
TO TEASE TIA AGAIN WITH A 98 OR 99 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN STORY WITH THE TROUGH WITH MAIN DYNAMICS WELL NORTH AND
MOISTURE DRAWN UP EAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THIN HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. SO EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LESS WIND AND HIGHS AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES ON EAST AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF BUILDS...WITH CENTER UP IN THE PACIFIC NW...OVER WESTERN
WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AT OR HITTING THE
CENTURY MARK. CHECK CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE CHANCES FOR TUCSON
HITTING 100.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WARM WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREAWIDE
AFT 21/15Z. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 21/17Z...THEN
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 9-14 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS AGAIN AFT 22/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR
HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF GREENLEE AND NORTHEAST GRAHAM
COUNTY WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...TUCSON WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN TOWARD THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY OF 2013 ON WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE DATA I
WAS LOOKING AT ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THAT WE ACCESS TO...FROM MOS GUIDANCE TO BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
GFS ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE...STILL HAS 98 FOR TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER A FEW MORE ARE NOW SHOWING 99 OR 100 FOR TUCSON WITH THE EC
AND UKMET 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING TO
SHOW EITHER 99 OR 100 FOR TUCSON. YESTERDAY I PUT THE CHANCES OF
HITTING 100 FOR TUCSON LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THIS MORNING I WOULD
SAY THAT THE CHANCES ARE UP TO ABOUT 15 PERCENT. WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF BETTER CONFIDENCE I DECIDED TO UP THE HIGH FOR TUCSON ON
WEDNESDAY TO 99 DEGREES. IF THE FIRST 100 DOESN`T OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEXT
ATTEMPT.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/LADER
000
FXUS65 KTWC 211004
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A FEW GUSTY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THIN HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. SO
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LESS WIND AND HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES ON EAST AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF BUILDS...WITH CENTER UP IN THE PACIFIC NW...OVER WESTERN
WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AT OR HITTING THE
CENTURY MARK. CHECK CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE CHANCES FOR TUCSON
HITTING 100.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WARM WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREAWIDE
AFT 21/15Z. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 21/17Z...THEN
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 9-14 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS AGAIN AFT 22/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR
HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 211002
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE
REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A FEW GUSTY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THIN HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. SO
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LESS WIND AND HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES ON EAST AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROF BUILDS...WITH CENTER UP IN THE PACIFIC NW...OVER WESTERN
WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AT OR HITTING THE
CENTURY MARK. CHECK CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE CHANCES FOR TUCSON
HITTING 100.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WARM WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL AREAWIDE
AFT 21/15Z. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 21/17Z...THEN
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 9-14 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS AGAIN AFT 22/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SOLAR
HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...TUCSON WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN TOWARD THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY OF 2013 ON WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE DATA I
WAS LOOKING AT ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
THAT WE ACCESS TO...FROM MOS GUIDANCE TO BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO
GFS ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE...STILL HAS 98 FOR TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER A FEW MORE ARE NOW SHOWING 99 OR 100 FOR TUCSON WITH THE EC
AND UKMET 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING TO
SHOW EITHER 99 OR 100 FOR TUCSON. YESTERDAY I PUT THE CHANCES OF
HITTING 100 FOR TUCSON LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THIS MORNING I WOULD
SAY THAT THE CHANCES ARE UP TO ABOUT 15 PERCENT. WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF BETTER CONFIDENCE I DECIDED TO UP THE HIGH FOR TUCSON ON
WEDNESDAY TO 99 DEGREES. IF THE FIRST 100 DOESN`T OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEXT
ATTEMPT.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KTWC 210329
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY TUESDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
GUSTY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN SPEED LATE THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME. LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT.
&&
.AVIATION...SKC THRU TONIGHT..WITH A THICKENING HIGH CLOUD TREND
TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH TUESDAY AFTN
WINDS LIGHTER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHTER...MEANING MORE NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS...AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AS A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST...SOMEWHAT
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND YIELDING OCCASIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE AZ AS DRY WEATHER PERSISTS...KD
&&
.CLIMATE...TUCSON WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN TOWARD THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
DAY OF 2013 ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THAT WE
ACCESS TO...FROM MOS GUIDANCE TO BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO GFS
ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE...ARE NOT FORECASTING 100 FOR TUCSON THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER THE EC AND UKMET 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES ON WEDNESDAY
ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW EITHER 99 OR 100 FOR TUCSON. SO THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT TUCSON WILL HIT 100 THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT I
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST HIGH ON WEDNESDAY AT 98. IF THE
FIRST 100 DOESN`T OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL NEXT MONDAY FOR OUR NEXT SHOT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MAINTAINED
THE DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IS MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL NO
LONGER BE A DIRECT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY HAVING A LIMITED AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OTHER THAN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY LESS WIND THAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE PASSING
OF ITS AXIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LATE
SEASON UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
REMAIN IN THAT GENERALLY AREA IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE FIRST HINT OF THAT TROUGH INFLUENCE WILL BE THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEY
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FROM THE LOOK OF THINGS
BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA FROM TIME TO
TIME FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE LOW AND FLOW DIRECTION I AM NOT SEEING ANY POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR
OUR AREA FROM THIS SETUP WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY PERIODS
THAT WE WILL GET ESPECIALLY AS FEATURES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THE BASIC IDEA IS DRY...SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS NOW AND THEN THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH IS MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THAN A CONCERN FOR THE
GENERAL PUBLIC. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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