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000
FXUS65 KTWC 022136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
236 PM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS WEEK.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PULL MOISTURE POOLED IN
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN DEEPER MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS...REMANENTS OF DOLLY AND ONE EVOLVING TODAY
SOUTH OF BAJA...SUPPLY NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MORE MOISTURE. THAT
SAID...A RETURN TO A WETTER SPELL ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS WILL BE THE INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS...THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SCT CLOUDS
AREAWIDE WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR ANY -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF TUCSON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021541
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
841 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK AS DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THIS WEEK THOUGH. PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THE UPCOMING CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KTUS AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDUG TERMINAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE
SRN CALIFORNIA COAST EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY SE OF TUCSON TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

STILL APPEARS THAT ANY MOISTURE INCREASE TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NERN SONORA AND ENCROACH UPON SERN SECTIONS WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU WED MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF MANZANILLO MAY BECOME
TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

02/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEAK ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD WED AFTERNOON
AND WED EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT.

THUR-FRI...
PERSISTENT SELY/SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS LATE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

SAT-MON...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT TO BE
CENTERED MIDDAY SAT WEST OF THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
25N/115W OR SO. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED VIA THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SUN...THEN MOVE SLOWLY WWD
TO NEAR 24N-26N/120W MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MARKEDLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO SE AZ...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-MON. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS PERIOD. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD ARGUE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPSHOT FOR SAT-
MON...A PERIOD FOR PRONOUNCED RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON TAP FOR SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT ABOUT
2-3 DEGS F OF DAILY COOLING TO OCCUR THUR-MON...WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021541
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
841 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK AS DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THIS WEEK THOUGH. PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THE UPCOMING CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KTUS AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDUG TERMINAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE
SRN CALIFORNIA COAST EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY SE OF TUCSON TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

STILL APPEARS THAT ANY MOISTURE INCREASE TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NERN SONORA AND ENCROACH UPON SERN SECTIONS WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU WED MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF MANZANILLO MAY BECOME
TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

02/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEAK ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD WED AFTERNOON
AND WED EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT.

THUR-FRI...
PERSISTENT SELY/SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS LATE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

SAT-MON...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT TO BE
CENTERED MIDDAY SAT WEST OF THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
25N/115W OR SO. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED VIA THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SUN...THEN MOVE SLOWLY WWD
TO NEAR 24N-26N/120W MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MARKEDLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO SE AZ...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-MON. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS PERIOD. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD ARGUE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPSHOT FOR SAT-
MON...A PERIOD FOR PRONOUNCED RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON TAP FOR SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT ABOUT
2-3 DEGS F OF DAILY COOLING TO OCCUR THUR-MON...WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 021101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SE OF TUCSON TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

STILL APPEARS THAT ANY MOISTURE INCREASE TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NERN SONORA AND ENCROACH UPON SERN SECTIONS WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU WED MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF MANZANILLO MAY BECOME
TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

02/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEAK ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD WED AFTERNOON
AND WED EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT.

THUR-FRI...
PERSISTENT SELY/SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS LATE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

SAT-MON...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT TO BE
CENTERED MIDDAY SAT WEST OF THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
25N/115W OR SO. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED VIA THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SUN...THEN MOVE SLOWLY WWD
TO NEAR 24N-26N/120W MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MARKEDLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO SE AZ...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-MON. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS PERIOD. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD ARGUE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPSHOT FOR SAT-
MON...A PERIOD FOR PRONOUNCED RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON TAP FOR SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT ABOUT
2-3 DEGS F OF DAILY COOLING TO OCCUR THUR-MON...WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KTUS AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KDUG TERMINAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 021101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY...WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SE OF TUCSON TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

STILL APPEARS THAT ANY MOISTURE INCREASE TO OCCUR INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NERN SONORA AND ENCROACH UPON SERN SECTIONS WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU WED MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF MANZANILLO MAY BECOME
TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

02/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. WEAK ELY/SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD WED AFTERNOON
AND WED EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT.

THUR-FRI...
PERSISTENT SELY/SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS LATE THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING.

SAT-MON...
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING TROPICAL SYSTEM NORBERT TO BE
CENTERED MIDDAY SAT WEST OF THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR
25N/115W OR SO. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED VIA THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SUN...THEN MOVE SLOWLY WWD
TO NEAR 24N-26N/120W MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MARKEDLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NWD INTO SE AZ...ESPECIALLY SUN-MON.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-MON. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS PERIOD. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD ARGUE FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPSHOT FOR SAT-
MON...A PERIOD FOR PRONOUNCED RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON TAP FOR SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-7 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT ABOUT
2-3 DEGS F OF DAILY COOLING TO OCCUR THUR-MON...WITH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS PREVAILING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF KTUS AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KDUG TERMINAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
WEEKEND AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. THEREAFTER...GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
916 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERING A HUGE AREA...FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
103 DEGS...WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH INHERITED/EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH
BASES AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 12
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. ORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
HELPING SURGE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS FURTHER
PRIMING THE REGION IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF US AND KEEPING THINGS ON
TRACK FOR MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 15N IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NORBERT) AND PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO STRONGLY
REINFORCE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUSH. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REFLECT THIS VERY WELL BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT`S STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LITTLE FURTHER OUT...ECMWF HAS A VERY INTERESTING WEST COAST
TROUGH RESOLUTION THAT DRAWS THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH
THAT`S DAYS 8-9 BUT YEOW. CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR CALLING FOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE SATURDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING SOLID.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 020416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
916 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH
PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERING A HUGE AREA...FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF
103 DEGS...WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH INHERITED/EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR INFORMATION REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH
BASES AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 12
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL. ORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
HELPING SURGE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS FURTHER
PRIMING THE REGION IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF US AND KEEPING THINGS ON
TRACK FOR MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 15N IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NORBERT) AND PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO STRONGLY
REINFORCE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUSH. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REFLECT THIS VERY WELL BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT`S STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LITTLE FURTHER OUT...ECMWF HAS A VERY INTERESTING WEST COAST
TROUGH RESOLUTION THAT DRAWS THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH
THAT`S DAYS 8-9 BUT YEOW. CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR CALLING FOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE SATURDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING SOLID.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 012119
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL UNSEASONABLY DRY TO START SEPTEMBER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND .7 OF AN INCH (ABOUT 55 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HANGING ON TO VALUES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS
WELL. ORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF HELPING SURGE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS FURTHER PRIMING THE
REGION IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF US AND KEEPING THINGS ON TRACK FOR
MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 15N IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NORBERT) AND PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO STRONGLY
REINFORCE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUSH. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REFLECT THIS VERY WELL BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT`S STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LITTLE FURTHER OUT...ECMWF HAS A VERY INTERESTING WEST COAST
TROUGH RESOLUTION THAT DRAWS THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH
THAT`S DAYS 8-9 BUT YEOW. CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR CALLING FOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE SATURDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD
LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS. WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 10
TO 15 KTS THRU 02/02Z...THEN SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 012119
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL UNSEASONABLY DRY TO START SEPTEMBER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND .7 OF AN INCH (ABOUT 55 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HANGING ON TO VALUES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS
WELL. ORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF HELPING SURGE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS FURTHER PRIMING THE
REGION IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF US AND KEEPING THINGS ON TRACK FOR
MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 15N IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (NORBERT) AND PUSH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE POSITION TO STRONGLY
REINFORCE THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE PUSH. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REFLECT THIS VERY WELL BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF AVERAGE THUNDERSTORM DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK...IT`S STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY WET NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LITTLE FURTHER OUT...ECMWF HAS A VERY INTERESTING WEST COAST
TROUGH RESOLUTION THAT DRAWS THE REMNANT LOW FROM THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. YEAH
THAT`S DAYS 8-9 BUT YEOW. CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR CALLING FOR
ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE SATURDAY TO
WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS LOOKING SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 9-13K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD
LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS. WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 10
TO 15 KTS THRU 02/02Z...THEN SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 011623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL UNSEASONABLY DRY TO START SEPTEMBER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND .6 OF AN INCH (ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HANGING ON TO VALUES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL. STILL ON TRACK FOR MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL
INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...01/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO TUE
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NRN SONORA
MEXICO...AND A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/ CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WERE FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF/S
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THIS FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.

LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE
GFS THUR-FRI. THEREAFTER...THE GFS DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF/S...BY SUN.

THE REASON FOR THIS LATTER DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GFS
DEPICTING THE NEXT ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERABLY
CLOSER TO THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE
ECMWF POSITION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPSHOT DURING THE WED-SUN PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-THUR WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/16Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRANCIS/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 011623
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY TO START THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL UNSEASONABLY DRY TO START SEPTEMBER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND .6 OF AN INCH (ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HANGING ON TO VALUES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF US THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SONORA WITH A DEEPER FETCH BUILDING UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL. STILL ON TRACK FOR MOISTURE SEEPING BACK IN FROM
THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL
INFLUENCES ARE STARTING TO LOOK EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...01/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH
DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO TUE
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NRN SONORA
MEXICO...AND A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/ CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WERE FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF/S
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THIS FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.

LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE
GFS THUR-FRI. THEREAFTER...THE GFS DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF/S...BY SUN.

THE REASON FOR THIS LATTER DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GFS
DEPICTING THE NEXT ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERABLY
CLOSER TO THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE
ECMWF POSITION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPSHOT DURING THE WED-SUN PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-THUR WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/16Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRANCIS/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011031
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE NRN
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST SEWD INTO SRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. CLEAR
SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

01/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO...AND A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WERE FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF/S VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THIS
FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.

LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE
GFS THUR-FRI. THEREAFTER...THE GFS DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF/S...BY SUN.

THE REASON FOR THIS LATTER DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GFS
DEPICTING THE NEXT ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERABLY
CLOSER TO THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE
ECMWF POSITION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPSHOT DURING THE WED-SUN PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-THUR WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011031
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF THE NRN
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST SEWD INTO SRN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. CLEAR
SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

01/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT TO BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO...AND A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WERE FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF/S VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THIS
FORECAST AREA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT.

LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TO INCREASE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WERE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE
GFS THUR-FRI. THEREAFTER...THE GFS DEPICTED MORE-ROBUST MOISTURE
FIELDS VERSUS THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF/S...BY SUN.

THE REASON FOR THIS LATTER DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GFS
DEPICTING THE NEXT ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERABLY
CLOSER TO THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND VERSUS THE
ECMWF POSITION OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE
UPSHOT DURING THE WED-SUN PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-THUR WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 010358
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
858 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING CONTINUING TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH PLENTY OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR COVERING A LARGE PART OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA...NOT
TO MENTION MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS WELL.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP OF 102
DEGS...WHICH WAS 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FEW-SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN
10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WE
SHOULD REGAIN A DEEPER...IF NOT VERY BRISK...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
MOISTURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK TO
BORDER AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NOTED BY
NHC NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 12N IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND PUSH NW TOWARD THE TIP OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ECMWF COVERS THAT TRACK WELL AND WOULD LIKELY PUT IT IN A
POSITION TO FURTHER ENHANCE A MOISTURE PUSH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE LIST OF SCENARIOS THAT WILL GIVE SE AZ
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER WEDNESDAY ARE PILING UP.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 010358
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
858 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING CONTINUING TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH PLENTY OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR COVERING A LARGE PART OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA...NOT
TO MENTION MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS WELL.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 93 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP OF 102
DEGS...WHICH WAS 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FEW-SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN
10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WE
SHOULD REGAIN A DEEPER...IF NOT VERY BRISK...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE
MOISTURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK TO
BORDER AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NOTED BY
NHC NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 12N IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND PUSH NW TOWARD THE TIP OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ECMWF COVERS THAT TRACK WELL AND WOULD LIKELY PUT IT IN A
POSITION TO FURTHER ENHANCE A MOISTURE PUSH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE LIST OF SCENARIOS THAT WILL GIVE SE AZ
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER WEDNESDAY ARE PILING UP.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 312116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS SE AZ WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ADD IN
THE WARM MID LEVELS (-3C AT H5) AND HAVE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH VERY
WEAK CU FIELDS AND NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SEASONABLY HOT...A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BUT BELOW RECORD LEVELS.

DEEPER MOISTURE NOT FAR AWAY WITH 1.5 INCH PW VALUES AS CLOSE AS
CENTRAL SONORA AS WELL AS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SOLID SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN DESERTS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE
ABOUT 4K FEET DEEP WITH IT. ONLY 10KTS OF FLOW HOWEVER SO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ON TOP OF THAT WILL TEND TO DOMINATE IN THE
SHORT TERM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD REGAIN A
DEEPER...IF NOT VERY BRISK...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK TO BORDER AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NOTED BY
NHC NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 12N IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND PUSH NW TOWARD THE TIP OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ECMWF COVERS THAT TRACK WELL AND WOULD LIKELY PUT IT IN A
POSITION TO FURTHER ENHANCE A MOISTURE PUSH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE LIST OF SCENARIOS THAT WILL GIVE SE AZ
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER WEDNESDAY ARE PILING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD
LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS. SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 10
TO 15 KTS THRU 01/02Z...THEN SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN
10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 312116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS SE AZ WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ADD IN
THE WARM MID LEVELS (-3C AT H5) AND HAVE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH VERY
WEAK CU FIELDS AND NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SEASONABLY HOT...A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BUT BELOW RECORD LEVELS.

DEEPER MOISTURE NOT FAR AWAY WITH 1.5 INCH PW VALUES AS CLOSE AS
CENTRAL SONORA AS WELL AS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SOLID SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES INTO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN DESERTS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE
ABOUT 4K FEET DEEP WITH IT. ONLY 10KTS OF FLOW HOWEVER SO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ON TOP OF THAT WILL TEND TO DOMINATE IN THE
SHORT TERM.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD REGAIN A
DEEPER...IF NOT VERY BRISK...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR FLOW. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE IMMEDIATE MOISTURE FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AND BRINGS CONVECTION BACK TO BORDER AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPER INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM NOTED BY
NHC NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 12N IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP AND PUSH NW TOWARD THE TIP OF BAJA OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. ECMWF COVERS THAT TRACK WELL AND WOULD LIKELY PUT IT IN A
POSITION TO FURTHER ENHANCE A MOISTURE PUSH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE LIST OF SCENARIOS THAT WILL GIVE SE AZ
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER WEDNESDAY ARE PILING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD
LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS. SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 10
TO 15 KTS THRU 01/02Z...THEN SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN
10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 311611
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS SE AZ WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ADD IN
THE WARM MID LEVELS (-3C AT H5) AND WE GET ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH
VERY WEAK CU FIELDS AND NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SEASONABLY HOT...A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BUT BELOW RECORD LEVELS.

DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE SOME
INROADS INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY MID WEEK. WE SHOULD RAMP UP THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/16Z.
CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
MOST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LABOR DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS SE ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM FAR SRN NEVADA/SRN CALIFORNIA EWD
INTO NRN/CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF SE AZ TODAY. THUS...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS
WITH A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
AXIS ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA EWD INTO
TEXAS.

31/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TUE. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE WED-SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION.

THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS SE AZ. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-
ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS ALSO MORE
PRONOUNCED VERSUS THE GFS WITH DEPICTING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE
NEAR SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT SAT. IF REALITY...THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
MAY EVENTUALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL FOLLOWED BY A VERY MODEST COOLING TREND THUR-SAT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL/FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 311040
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
340 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS SE
ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
STRETCHED FROM FAR SRN NEVADA/SRN CALIFORNIA EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SE AZ TODAY.
THUS...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH A FEW
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA EWD INTO TEXAS.

31/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TUE. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE WED-SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION.

THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS SE AZ. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-
ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS ALSO MORE
PRONOUNCED VERSUS THE GFS WITH DEPICTING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE
NEAR SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT SAT. IF REALITY...THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
MAY EVENTUALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL FOLLOWED BY A VERY MODEST COOLING TREND THUR-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
MOST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LABOR DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 311040
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
340 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY FOLLOWED
BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS SE
ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
STRETCHED FROM FAR SRN NEVADA/SRN CALIFORNIA EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SE AZ TODAY.
THUS...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH A FEW
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA EWD INTO TEXAS.

31/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
BE CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TUE. SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE WED-SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION.

THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS SE AZ. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF DEPICTED MORE-
ROBUST MOISTURE FIELDS VERSUS THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS ALSO MORE
PRONOUNCED VERSUS THE GFS WITH DEPICTING A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO BE
NEAR SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT SAT. IF REALITY...THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
MAY EVENTUALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD IS JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY-WED WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL FOLLOWED BY A VERY MODEST COOLING TREND THUR-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES MOST SECTIONS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
MOST SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LABOR DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 310432
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
932 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...SOME MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 92 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 104
DEGS... WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT
AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEW POINT TRENDS ARE UP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WITH THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW H5 THIS IS MAKING SOME
INITIAL INROADS IN RESTORING MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT
THE WESTERLIES ARE NOT COOPERATING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KEEPING A
DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WESTERLIES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH MOISTURE
LURKING TO OUR SOUTH STARTING TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. BORDER AREAS INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY SHOULD START TO RAMP UP WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UNDER H5
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PHASES EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. TROPICAL INFLUENCES START TO
REALLY LOAD UP THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THAT SHOULD SLOSH TOWARD OUR AREA
EVEN AS LATE SEASON HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES START TO INTRUDE MORE
AND MORE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE AREN`T DONE WITH OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORM SEASON QUITE YET.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 310432
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
932 PM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLEAR...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THEN...SOME MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA...WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 92 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 104
DEGS... WHICH WAS 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 8-12K FT
AGL MAINLY EAST OF A KOLS-KSAD LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEW POINT TRENDS ARE UP AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WITH THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW BELOW H5 THIS IS MAKING SOME
INITIAL INROADS IN RESTORING MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...BUT
THE WESTERLIES ARE NOT COOPERATING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KEEPING A
DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WESTERLIES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WITH MOISTURE
LURKING TO OUR SOUTH STARTING TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. BORDER AREAS INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY SHOULD START TO RAMP UP WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UNDER H5
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PHASES EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP STORMS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. TROPICAL INFLUENCES START TO
REALLY LOAD UP THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THAT SHOULD SLOSH TOWARD OUR AREA
EVEN AS LATE SEASON HIGHER LATITUDE INFLUENCES START TO INTRUDE MORE
AND MORE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE AREN`T DONE WITH OUR SUMMER
THUNDERSTORM SEASON QUITE YET.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL







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