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000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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MEYER







000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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MEYER






000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 311107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER
NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 311107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER
NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 302058
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK LOW NEAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER NEAR CENTRAL BAJA. WE MANAGED TO IMPORT MODEST
LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER WE AREN`T DOING
MUCH CURRENTLY TO REINFORCE OUR CU FIELDS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SAG
BACK A FEW DEGREES. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW OR TWO.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (JOINED BY THE 18Z NAMDNG5)
CONTINUE SUPPORT THIS AFTER 3 PM.

STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO MOUNTAIN CU
FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER
TERRAIN...AFTER 23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION FROM 8 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
WANE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COMBINE WITH
THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY DRY GRASS FUELS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 302058
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK LOW NEAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER NEAR CENTRAL BAJA. WE MANAGED TO IMPORT MODEST
LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER WE AREN`T DOING
MUCH CURRENTLY TO REINFORCE OUR CU FIELDS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SAG
BACK A FEW DEGREES. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW OR TWO.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (JOINED BY THE 18Z NAMDNG5)
CONTINUE SUPPORT THIS AFTER 3 PM.

STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO MOUNTAIN CU
FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER
TERRAIN...AFTER 23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION FROM 8 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
WANE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COMBINE WITH
THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY DRY GRASS FUELS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 302058
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK LOW NEAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER NEAR CENTRAL BAJA. WE MANAGED TO IMPORT MODEST
LEVELS OF MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER WE AREN`T DOING
MUCH CURRENTLY TO REINFORCE OUR CU FIELDS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SAG
BACK A FEW DEGREES. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW OR TWO.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (JOINED BY THE 18Z NAMDNG5)
CONTINUE SUPPORT THIS AFTER 3 PM.

STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO MOUNTAIN CU
FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER
TERRAIN...AFTER 23Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST DIRECTION FROM 8 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON
THE GUSTY SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
WANE QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COMBINE WITH
THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY DRY GRASS FUELS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 301559
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
WEAK LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR NORTHERN SONORA ARE
HELPING US ALONG WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S THIS MORNING. THE NEXT 12
HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THAT TREND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE TWO WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE REGION SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ARE
CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS ARE
PICKING UP ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SANTA CRUZ AND
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING SOME OF
THAT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS AND THOSE TIMES.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW
-SHRA AND -TSRA TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE WITH A VERY BRIEF DROP BELOW VFR
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR
26N/121W...AND OVER SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED
VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30 INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65
INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301559
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
WEAK LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR NORTHERN SONORA ARE
HELPING US ALONG WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S THIS MORNING. THE NEXT 12
HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THAT TREND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE TWO WEAK
SYSTEMS IN THE REGION SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA ARE
CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS ARE
PICKING UP ON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SANTA CRUZ AND
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING SOME OF
THAT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS AND THOSE TIMES.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW
-SHRA AND -TSRA TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE WITH A VERY BRIEF DROP BELOW VFR
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR
26N/121W...AND OVER SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED
VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30 INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65
INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/FRANCIS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 301116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301116
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION...AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD SOME
BREEZINESS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE NEXT SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD
SOME BREEZINESS PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE NEXT SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD
SOME BREEZINESS PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE NEXT SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD
SOME BREEZINESS PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 26N/121W...AND OVER
SRN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP
WATER PRODUCT VALID 0735Z DEPICTED VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.30
INCH ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 0.65 INCH ACROSS SERN COCHISE COUNTY.
HAVE NOTED PRECIP WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
SONORA MEXICO.

30/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE LITTLE CHANGED VERSUS THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR SE ARIZONA INTO
TONIGHT. IN ESSENCE...THE NAM CONTINUED TO BE THE WETTEST SOLUTION
AND THE CMC WAS THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. AT ANY RATE...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE EWD.

THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA/MULE/
HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS IN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/
COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
FROM THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
VIA THE GRIDDED DATA WEATHER FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY HAPPEN MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR WED...THEN THE MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THUR IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO BREEZY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR
AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY SAT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 30/06Z GFS DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS SAT NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS ARE DOWN VERSUS THE GFS
SOLUTIONS FROM 24-30 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF THAT MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE NEXT SUN UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD
SOME BREEZINESS PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS WED. ANOTHER VERY GRADUAL COOLING
TREND IS ON TAP THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING SAT. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS -TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS THIS
MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15-20K FT AGL...THEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 6-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST TUESDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING IS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THAT DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW RESIDES WELL WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE CLOUDS
BECOMING THINNER AND LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A READING AT THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT OF 77 DEGS. THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON AT TIA WAS 92 DEGS.
THIS WAS A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMP
FOR THIS DATE WAS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1943. TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FOR
TUCSON WAS ALSO 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS ARE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED/ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDING A HIGH
OF 92 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 91 SET BACK IN 1943.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM
THE PACIFIC, SOME MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING IS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THAT DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW RESIDES WELL WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE CLOUDS
BECOMING THINNER AND LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A READING AT THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT OF 77 DEGS. THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON AT TIA WAS 92 DEGS.
THIS WAS A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMP
FOR THIS DATE WAS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1943. TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FOR
TUCSON WAS ALSO 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS ARE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED/ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDING A HIGH
OF 92 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 91 SET BACK IN 1943.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM
THE PACIFIC, SOME MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 300419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING IS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THAT DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW RESIDES WELL WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE CLOUDS
BECOMING THINNER AND LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A READING AT THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT OF 77 DEGS. THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON AT TIA WAS 92 DEGS.
THIS WAS A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMP
FOR THIS DATE WAS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1943. TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FOR
TUCSON WAS ALSO 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS ARE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED/ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDING A HIGH
OF 92 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 91 SET BACK IN 1943.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM
THE PACIFIC, SOME MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING IS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THAT DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW RESIDES WELL WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE CLOUDS
BECOMING THINNER AND LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A READING AT THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT OF 77 DEGS. THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON AT TIA WAS 92 DEGS.
THIS WAS A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMP
FOR THIS DATE WAS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1943. TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FOR
TUCSON WAS ALSO 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS ARE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED/ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDING A HIGH
OF 92 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 91 SET BACK IN 1943.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM
THE PACIFIC, SOME MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 292127
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE OUR WEATHER TODAY
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
LATITUDE IS BRINGING IN DENSE PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE,
OTHERWISE WE`RE PRETTY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4
OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM THE PACIFIC, SOME
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/23Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL








000
FXUS65 KTWC 292127
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE OUR WEATHER TODAY
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
LATITUDE IS BRINGING IN DENSE PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE,
OTHERWISE WE`RE PRETTY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4
OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM THE PACIFIC, SOME
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/23Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/ZELL







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